The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR
unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more.
It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since...
MACRO MONDAY 10 – Historical Interest Rate hike Impact on S&P500
This chart aims to illustrate the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s Interest rate hike policy and the S&P500’s price movements.
At a glance the chart highlights the lagging effects of the Federal Reserves Interest Rate hikes on the S&P500 (the “Market”). In all four of the interest rate...
I have officially decided to update our long-term price projection for Bitcoin. A major key change is the elimination of the mini-bull market. Instead we are expecting the current bull market to develop into a major bull market. There is also a very high likelihood that this will be the only bull market for the 4th cycle. In this video we partially stepped outside...
I feel bad when I am filling up your feed with my non-stop posting.
There are too many charts that I want to talk about. I could post them as "updates" to my earlier ideas. But this would be confusing for me and for the reader.
Therefore, here is another short chart analysis.
The last few months were peculiar. DJI began diverging away from the other main...
As the famous billionaire said in December 2021 (elon), the "prophet" who is apparently loved and trusted by everyone. I don't know why...
Disclaimer, SPX by itself will probably not follow this path, things are quite complex as you will soon find out.
First of all, Recession is not something simple. Everyone talks about it, but it is not always meaningful.
This...
Just a short update for today. It is important, so it deserves an idea on its own.
For the first time since 2019, the FED is now officially giving money into the system.
What could this mean for the US economy? Are they sensing weakness or is this just a response to the recent banking crises?
Now let's look at the history of bailouts.
Price made a...
I have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time.
Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful...
Oil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar).
World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both...
US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared...
*High winning rate with backtesting by my strategy
Right now ECONOMICS:USINTR is still in the upside trend.
This means that it has been consistently performing poorly and may not be a good investment opportunity in the short term.
🔔 Be prepared for reversals.
It's advisable to be patient and wait for the downward trend to occur before the risk market...
Spoiler alert, there is a lot.
Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously.
An easy-to-explain chart.
As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when...
Oh yeah, inflation... Just how much though???
One of the main "benefactors" for inflation is money supply. Printing money fast and not managing it to create growth, is bad... unsurprisingly. For the last 2 years, an astronomical amount of money was printed. But have we seen it's effect?
To figure out these HOT questions, we use charts. Opinions don't do us any...
Here is great high interest rate hedge. While I wanted to use USINTR to compare, it didn't look obvious for easy analysis, so I used USIRYY instead since both are greatly correlated. The Fed keeps talking like a dove but acting like a hawk: like promising soft landings from transitory inflation, yet suddenly choosing rare 75 bps increase, even though they...
If history is any indicator we shouldn't expect any pivots in monetary policy until 10Y Bond Yields come down to Interest Rates or Interest Rates hike to the former's level.
For 10Y Bond Yields to come down we need to see lower inflation or inflationary pressure.
