Spoiler alert, there is a lot.
Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously.
An easy-to-explain chart.
As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when there is strength, historically...
Now the FEDFUNDS race now is for inflation (amongst other conspiracy stuff)
Does this chart work??? I don't know...
Orange line: It is SPX in log scale.
Blue line: I tried to add in the equation the FEDFUNDS rate. The price of SPX is divided by M2SL. This takes out of the equation the money printing. Now we multiply by 10-FEDFUNDS rate. I could do many different calculations but this is good enough for my knowledge. I am no trader, I have even managed to forget physics I did one year ago, so you could't possibly call me a genius. So take this with a grain of salt.
What we find out is a new blue line which could be a measure of today's strength of economy.
Throughout history, the two lines followed together, with the blue line surpassing the orange. Therefore the "strength" is higher than the SPX reading. In 2008 the lines followed through in exactly the same fashion. Even in 2000, albeit the blue line being slow, they both reached the same bottom.
What we see now is the incredible. The economy's strength is already in trash. And for quite some time...
It appears that my extreme ideas are not that extreme after all...
Go ahead, post some hate comments below, like some did in the idea I linked.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously.
An easy-to-explain chart.
As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when there is strength, historically...
Now the FEDFUNDS race now is for inflation (amongst other conspiracy stuff)
Does this chart work??? I don't know...
Orange line: It is SPX in log scale.
Blue line: I tried to add in the equation the FEDFUNDS rate. The price of SPX is divided by M2SL. This takes out of the equation the money printing. Now we multiply by 10-FEDFUNDS rate. I could do many different calculations but this is good enough for my knowledge. I am no trader, I have even managed to forget physics I did one year ago, so you could't possibly call me a genius. So take this with a grain of salt.
What we find out is a new blue line which could be a measure of today's strength of economy.
Throughout history, the two lines followed together, with the blue line surpassing the orange. Therefore the "strength" is higher than the SPX reading. In 2008 the lines followed through in exactly the same fashion. Even in 2000, albeit the blue line being slow, they both reached the same bottom.
What we see now is the incredible. The economy's strength is already in trash. And for quite some time...
It appears that my extreme ideas are not that extreme after all...
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Comment:
I am thinking if the calculation I did is completely wrong. Maybe it is. As I mentioned, I am not a genius. This is more orthodox.
Comment:
These charts above weren't so meaningful after all!
I just had to make a small adjustment:
SPX/(modified-yields) = SPX/(US10Y+1+1/US10Y)
Look at the pain we see if we plug in (US02Y+1)
What could it mean if this turns out as a massive Cerberus?
I just had to make a small adjustment:
SPX/(modified-yields) = SPX/(US10Y+1+1/US10Y)
Comment:
Comment:
Why do I insist on modified-yields?
2020 Black Swan appears as a "bull-run" on the "wrong-ish" chart.
Look at oil.
Do note that I avoid using 02y and try using 10y because 02y tend to go negative at times and are too sensitive to yield increases. Still, this wrong-ish transformation I use has pretty good results!
Look at oil.
Do note that I avoid using 02y and try using 10y because 02y tend to go negative at times and are too sensitive to yield increases. Still, this wrong-ish transformation I use has pretty good results!