BTCUSD – 1H Technical, Supply–Demand & Market LogicBitcoin is still trading inside a clean, well respected descending channel, and nothing in the current price action suggests trend exhaustion. What looks like a bounce is structurally a corrective pullback into supply, not the start of a new bullish leg.
Technical Structure
- Trend: Clearly bearish consistent lower highs and lower lows
- Channel: Price is reacting perfectly to the upper and lower boundaries of the descending channel
- EMA (dynamic resistance): Every rally into the EMA has been rejected, confirming sellers remain in control
The recent move from the demand zone near 74,800–75,200 is a technical reaction, not accumulation. That demand has already been tested and partially consumed. Price is now pushing back into a supply zone around 78,500–79,500, aligned with:
- Channel resistance
- EMA resistance
- Prior breakdown structure
This confluence makes the area high-probability sell-side liquidity.
Supply–Demand & Liquidity
- The green demand zone below has weak hands, not strong absorption
- The current upside move is best interpreted as stop-hunting and short-term relief
- The dotted projection shows the classic bearish path:
bounce → rejection → continuation lower
If price fails to reclaim and hold above the supply zone, the next move favors a breakdown through the demand zone, opening the path toward the major liquidity target near 71,900.
Macro Context
Risk assets remain under pressure as:
- Financial conditions stay tight
- Volatility picks up
- Speculative positioning continues to unwind
In this environment, Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset in distribution, not a safe haven.
Key Takeaway
As long as BTC remains inside this descending channel, every rally should be treated as a selling opportunity, not a breakout. A real trend shift requires acceptance above channel resistance until then, downside continuation remains the dominant scenario.
This is not panic selling / This is controlled markdown.
