USDCHF Is Going Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDCHF.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 0.768.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 0.758 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Forex
EUR/JPY | Between NWOGs! (READ THE CAPTION) As it can be seen in the 2H chart of EURJPY, it opened the week with a massive NWOG, and it has been testing and retesting the NWOG since the beginning of the week. It also has been stuck in the last week's NWOG, going through it then coming back to it like magnet several times. Currently it is being traded at 183.400, just barely above last week's NWOG high.
I expect EURJPY to retest this weeks NWOG relatively soon.
Targets for EURJPY: 183.440, 183,600, 183.760 and 183.920.
GOLD Will Grow! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,020.46.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5,216.72 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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USD/JPY SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on USD/JPY, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 151.907.
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NZDUSD hit its 1W MA200 for the first time after almost 4 years!Last time we looked at the NZDUSD pair (November 07 2025, see chart below), we gave a timely buy signal at the bottom of its Channel Down, which shortly after it hit our 0.57250 Target:
This time we move to the longer term time-frames, the 1W in particular as we have a critical Resistance test for the first time in almost 4 years. It's been the week of April 18 2022 when the pair last time hit its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). At the same time, it hit the Lower Highs 1 trend-line that started on April 04 2022.
This is a strong Resistance cluster and given also that the 1W RSI touched its own 4-year Resistance (63.50), we are turning bearish on this pair, targeting 0.56000, which is just above the long-term Support Zone.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
USOIL BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 65.09
Target Level: 63.63
Stop Loss: 66.05
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
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EURCAD: Bullish Forecast & Bullish Scenario
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy EURCAD.
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update of xagusdSilver – Key support zones suitable for potential entries, along with new short- and mid-term targets, have been identified.
Important question: Will the marked support zones definitely be tested?
Not necessarily.
This is only a low-probability scenario.
Estimated time frame to reach the targets: up to four months.
NZDUSD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
NZDUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short NZDUSD
Entry Point - 0.6058
Stop Loss - 0.6068
Take Profit - 0.6039
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GOLD My Opinion! BUY!
My dear friends,
GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 5130.2 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 5240.1
Recommended Stop Loss - 5071.0
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
#NZDUSD: Three Targets, Swing Buy, Ready For Next Big MoveDear Traders
NZDUSD Chart Analysis SMC+ICT💭📊
🔺The price was rejected at 0.5580, a ‘discounted zone’ price, which was reversed without consolidation or accumulation. The price then moved in an impulse pattern and encountered strong resistance at 0.58320.
🔺A rejection at 0.58320 presents a favourable opportunity for traders to optimise the next significant price impulse. This analysis suggests a potential reversal from 0.5710.
Entry, Take Profit And Stop Loss👨💻📈
🔺 The entry between the blue and red horizontal lines indicates a significant volume zone and can be considered a discounted buying opportunity.
🔺A stop loss can be placed at the red horizontal line or increased based on your own analysis.
🔺We recommend targeting take profit first at the outset. As the price crosses our take profit level, you can consider adjusting the take profit area.
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Team Setupsfx_🏆
“Bearish Price Action Analysis After Rejection at Key ResistanceAfter an extended bullish rally, price has reached a key supply zone where strong selling pressure emerged, leading to a clear rejection from the highs. This rejection signals weakening bullish momentum and the presence of institutional selling at premium prices. The subsequent move lower indicates a bearish corrective phase, with price now heading toward a previously established demand/support zone. Failure to reclaim the prior highs and the formation of lower intraday highs suggest a short-term bearish market structure. If price breaks and closes below the support zone, it would confirm bearish continuation and increase the probability of a deeper pullback. Until then, any upside moves are likely to be corrective rather than impulsive.
XAUUSD – Buy Zone ReactionContext: Strong bullish move → distribution → sharp selloff.
Current structure: Price dumped into a prior demand / liquidity area (your buy zone).
Reaction: Clear bullish response from the zone (long lower wick + impulse candle).
Plan:
Buy zone: Prior demand / sweep of lows
Target: Previous support-turned-resistance (that blue box above)
Why the idea makes sense
✅ Liquidity sweep below recent lows before the bounce
✅ HTF bullish bias still intact despite the pullback
✅ Discount entry relative to the prior range
✅ Target aligns with a retest of broken structure
This is a classic pullback → mitigation → continuation setup. Clean and logical.
What to watch out for (important)
⚠️ If price closes strongly below the buy zone, idea is invalid
⚠️ That target zone is likely to be reaction-heavy (partial profits make sense)
⚠️ Best confirmation would be:
Lower-timeframe BOS
Bullish engulfing / strong displacement candle
Volume expansion on the bounce
How I’d manage it
Entry: Inside buy zone only after confirmation
Stop: Below the liquidity sweep low
TP1: Mid-range / first resistance
TP2: Your marked target zone
AUD/JPY :: Market Structure & Momentum ReviewAUD/JPY (Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen) — Bullish Technical Setup + Macro Context + Correlation Watchlist 💹
📌 TRADE IDEA — PLAN
✔️ Market bias: Bullish trend confirmed — price respect on HULL MA pullbacks + strong RSI support, momentum still favoring upside continuation. (Technical momentum structure visible on daily/4H chart)
✔️ Entry strategy: Thief layering style (multiple limit buys):
💎 Buy Limits: 106.500 — 107.000 — 107.500 — 108.000 (you can add more layers based on your risk.)
➡️ Big picture: Layers capture pullbacks into value while keeping jungle-style risk control.
📌 Stop Loss (Thief SL): 109.500
– Adjust to your risk tolerance but keep it logical above recent swing highs.
📌 Target Zone: 🎯 106.000 first target
🔥 Police-force resistance + overbought zone likely to trap late sellers — escape profits early! (manage profit levels dynamically)
📌 Note (Respect the Market):
Dear Traders (Thief OG’s), this TP/SL is a guide — your profit is your choice. Trade smart, lock gains, manage risk. 🙌
📊 REAL-TIME FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT (London Time)
🧠 Economic Drivers Impacting AUD/JPY:
🔹 AUD Strength Factors:
• AUD rally on improved risk appetite & Aussie CPI anticipation — strong commodity flows buoy AUD.
• AUD/JPY often tracks global risk sentiment (bullish in rally phases).
🔹 JPY Dynamics:
• Japanese inflation/currency dynamics shifting — Tokyo CPI slowdown tempers BoJ tightening expectations.
• Fresh reports suggest potential yen intervention signals from Japan’s PM & policymakers.
📆 Upcoming Key Releases (Watchlist):
• AUD CPI / RBA rate commentary — big volatility trigger.
• Japan GDP / BoJ policy updates — can bend JPY strength.
• Global risk news (equity, bond routs) — impact carry crosses like AUD/JPY.
🔗 RELATED PAIRS + CORRELATION WATCHLIST
• OANDA:AUDUSD – Shows overall Australian dollar strength. If AUD/USD holds bullish momentum, it supports AUD/JPY upside.
• FX:USDJPY – Direct Yen strength indicator. Strong USD/JPY = weak JPY → bullish pressure for AUD/JPY.
• OANDA:NZDJPY – Similar risk-on carry trade behavior; often moves in the same direction as AUD/JPY.
• OANDA:EURJPY – Confirms broader JPY sentiment during risk-on / risk-off market conditions.
🔁 Correlation Insight:
AUD/JPY performs best in risk-on environments (strong equities, rising yields) and weakens when safe-haven Yen demand increases.
🛠️ TECHNICAL & STRUCTURAL NOTES
📍 Minor cross pair — subject to volatility swings but tradable with layered entry strength and defined risk.
📍 Daily/4H HULL & RSI show supportive pullbacks into key levels.
📍 Price above 100-EMA indicates medium-term bullish structure with reasonable support.
🧠 THIEF TRADER MOTIVATION & WISHES 💎🔥
💬 “Trade like a smart thief — take only what the market gives you, exit before resistance hits. Patience + precision = profit.”
💬 “Layers stack profits, discipline stacks equity.”
💬 “Be a strategist, not a spectator.”
Wishing every Thief OG 📈 smart entries, shark-level exits, and snowballing profits! 🦈💰
Gold Has Shifted Into a Corrective Channel — The Next Bullish Hello traders, OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading near $5,178, following a sharp rejection from the all-time high region around $5,580–$5,600. After completing a strong impulsive advance, price action has transitioned into a well-defined descending channel, signaling a short-term corrective phase rather than immediate trend continuation.
This pullback has so far respected structure. Price remains above the rising higher-timeframe trendline and is approaching a key support zone premium around $5,020–$5,070. This area aligns with prior structural interaction and represents a critical decision zone where buyers are expected to reassess participation. Importantly, downside momentum has moderated as price moves deeper into this zone, suggesting the correction is orderly, not capitulative.
From a structural standpoint, the broader bullish trend is not invalidated. The current move should be viewed as a corrective leg within a larger uptrend, provided price holds above the $5,000 psychological and structural level. A constructive reaction from the support zone would increase the probability of a rotation back toward the descending channel resistance near $5,240–$5,280, where market behavior will determine whether a larger reversal or continuation unfolds.
On the upside, a sustained reclaim and acceptance above $5,280–$5,300 would signal that the corrective phase has likely completed, opening the door for a renewed attempt toward the prior ATH zone. Until that occurs, upside moves are best interpreted as corrective bounces, not confirmed reversals.
Invalidation remains clear and objective. A decisive breakdown and acceptance below $5,000 would weaken the higher-timeframe structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction toward the $4,920–$4,960 region.
For now, gold is not breaking its trend it is working through a structured correction.
ATH rejected. Correction active. Demand reaction will decide the next major move.
NZDCAD: Another Pullback Trade For Today 🇳🇿🇨🇦
NZDCAD may pull back from the underlined intraday/daily support.
As a confirmation, I see a double bottom pattern formation on that
and a violation of its horizontal neckline.
Goal - 0.8197
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NZDCHF Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for NZDCHF.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.464.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.462.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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XAUUSD: at Key Resistance - Pullback Scenario in Focus To $5,400Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup.
Market Analysis
XAUUSD is trading within a broader bullish structure that previously developed inside a well-defined upward channel. After a prolonged consolidation phase marked by a clear range, price broke to the upside, confirming buyer control and initiating a strong impulsive rally. This breakout from the range acted as a key structural shift, pushing gold into an accelerated bullish phase supported by higher highs and higher lows within the ascending channel. As price continued higher, XAUUSD approached a major higher-timeframe Resistance Zone around the 5,580–5,600 area. This zone has historically acted as a strong supply region, and current price action suggests that bullish momentum is starting to weaken near this level. The market is now showing signs of overextension after a near-vertical move, increasing the probability of a corrective pullback. Importantly, price is currently trading at the upper boundary of the ascending channel, where buyers often begin to take profits and sellers look for short-term opportunities.
Currently, a clearly defined Support Zone around the 5,380–5,420 area aligns with the prior breakout level and the upper boundary of the former consolidation. This zone represents a key area of interest, as it previously acted as resistance before being broken and now serves as potential support. The structure suggests that a pullback into this zone would be a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal.
My Scenario & Strategy
My primary scenario is a short-term corrective pullback from the Resistance Zone toward the Support Zone. As long as price remains capped below the 5,600 resistance and shows rejection from the upper channel boundary, I expect a move lower toward the 5,400 support area (TP1). This short idea is counter-trend and should be treated strictly as a corrective trade within a broader bullish market structure. A clean reaction into the Support Zone could attract fresh buyers and potentially lead to trend continuation afterward.
However, if price fails to find support and breaks decisively below the 5,380 level with strong bearish acceptance, a deeper correction toward the lower channel boundary would become more likely. On the other hand, a strong breakout and acceptance above the 5,600 Resistance Zone would invalidate the short scenario and signal bullish continuation. For now, price is at a critical reaction area where a pullback is technically justified.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
EURUSD Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 1.193.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.197 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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SILVER Will Go Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for SILVER.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 11,885.9.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 11,523.9 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Dow Theory — The Foundation of Trend Reading Every Trader Must MDow Theory — The Foundation of Trend Reading Every Trader Must Master
Most traders fail not because the market is random, but because they never truly understand how trends work. Dow Theory is not outdated theory. it is the core logic behind price structure that still governs every market today. If you can read structure, you don’t need predictions.
1. The Market Moves in Trends — Not Randomly
Price does not move randomly. What looks like chaos is actually organized behavior driven by collective psychology.
A trend exists when price consistently creates structure:
- Uptrend → Higher Highs (HH) + Higher Lows (HL)
- Downtrend → Lower Highs (LH) + Lower Lows (LL)
- Sideways → Price oscillates without expanding structure
As long as this structure remains intact, the trend is valid regardless of news, opinions, or emotions.
Structure > Narrative.
2. Every Trend Has Multiple Levels
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is confusing timeframe noise with trend reversal.
Dow Theory explains that markets move in three layers at the same time:
- Primary Trend – the dominant direction (weeks to months)
- Secondary Move – corrective phases against the main trend
- Minor Swings – short-term fluctuations and noise
Most losses happen when traders fight the primary trend while reacting emotionally to minor swings.
3. The Three Psychological Phases of a Trend
Trends don’t start or end suddenly. They evolve through three distinct phases:
1️⃣ Accumulation
- Smart money builds positions quietly
- Price moves sideways
- Volatility is low
- Public interest is minimal
2️⃣ Participation
- Structure becomes clear
- Breakouts occur
- Momentum expands
- This is where most trend-following profits are made
3️⃣ Distribution
- Late buyers enter emotionally
- Volatility increases
- Smart money exits into strength
- Understanding these phases helps traders avoid buying tops and selling bottoms.
4. Structure Is the Only Valid Trend Confirmation
Indicators do not define trends, structure does.
A trend is confirmed when:
- Price breaks structure in the trend direction
- Pullbacks respect prior swing levels
- Momentum resumes after corrections
If structure is not broken, there is no reversal only a correction.
This is why predicting tops and bottoms is one of the fastest ways to lose money.
5. Volume Confirms Direction, Not Timing
Volume does not tell you when to enter.
It tells you whether the move is real.
- Rising volume with the trend → confirmation
- Weak volume during pullbacks → healthy correction
- High volume against structure → warning signal
Price leads.
Volume confirms.
6. A Trend Continues Until Structure Breaks
This is the most ignored and most important rule of Dow Theory.
A trend does NOT end because:
- Price “already went too far”
- Indicators are overbought or oversold
- Social media says “the top is in”
A trend ends only when structure breaks and fails to recover.
How to Apply This in Real Trading
A simple, repeatable framework:
- Identify the dominant structure (HH/HL or LH/LL)
- Wait for a correction, not a reversal
- Enter only when structure resumes in trend direction
- Place stop-loss where structure becomes invalid
- Hold until the market changes structure
No prediction. No guessing.
Just reading what price is already telling you.
Final Thought
Most traders don’t lose because they lack indicators.
They lose because they don’t understand trend behavior.
When you stop predicting and start reading structure, the market becomes clear, calm, and repeatable.
GBPUSD: Buying After Trap 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD will likely move up after a confirmed
bearish trap below a key intraday support.
I expect a rise at least to 1.3806 level.
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