USD Bounce from OversoldLast week saw the US Dollar go more oversold on the daily chart than at any point in the past five years. The Trump comment on Tuesday when asked what he thought about US Dollar weakness to which he replied with 'it's great,' helped USD to sell off even more. But, the latter half of last week saw those comments get walked aback, first by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and then by Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett. Hassett in particular is a noted Trump ally so it seems unlikely that he refuted his boss in public on his own, and it does seem as though the admin wanted to walk those comments back a bit after the aggressive push from bears last Tuesday.
While RSI isn't a great timing indicator it can be phenomenal for context, and when a market is as oversold as the USD was last week, it's a tough argument to chase it lower.
But now that it's bounce, bears have a chance to make a push as there's some resistance that can be coming into play soon, such as the 97.94 Fibonacci level, or the 98.98 level that sits above that.
It's on pullbacks that we can see what a trend is made of, whether it gets defended and holds as a higher-low or a lower-high. - js
Forex
USD-CAD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USDCAD swept sell-side liquidity into a higher-timeframe demand and delivered a strong BOS. Acceptance above the zone suggests smart money accumulation targeting the next imbalance. Time Frame 4H.
Buy!
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(XAUUSD) – Bearish Continuation From Major Supply Zone (45m)
Market Structure
Clear trend reversal from the highs → strong impulsive sell-off.
The curved marking shows a distribution/top formation, followed by aggressive downside momentum.
Overall structure is lower highs & lower lows → bears in control.
Key Zones
Resistance / Supply Zone (~4,700–4,750)
Previous support flipped into resistance.
Price has retested this zone multiple times and failed to break above → strong seller presence.
Target / Demand Zone (~4,350)
Prior demand area and liquidity pool.
Logical downside objective if resistance continues to hold.
Entry Logic (as drawn)
Short entry after rejection inside the resistance zone.
Confirmation comes from:
Weak bullish candles
Long upper wicks
Failure to reclaim the zone
Price Action Read
The small bounces are corrective pullbacks, not reversals.
Each push up is being sold → classic bearish continuation / pullback-to-supply setup.
Bias & Expectation
Bias: Bearish
Expectation:
Rejection from resistance → continuation toward 4,350 target
Invalidation if price accepts and closes above the resistance zone
Summary
This chart shows a textbook support-to-resistance flip after a strong sell-off. As long as price remains below the highlighted resistance, the path of least resistance is down, targeting the lower demand zone.
Potential bullish rise?GBP/CHF could make a short-term pullback to the support level, which is a pullback support, and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0607
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.0531
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.0714
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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Bullish bounce setup?EUR/CHF is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.9175
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.9137
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support level.
Take profit: 0.9235
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Could we see a bounce from here?EUR/JPY is reacting off the support level, which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 183.49
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 182.31
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 185.46
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBP/USD | Sweep first! (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the hourly chart of GBPUSD, we can see that it's been going lower for a while now, showing an initial reaction to the Bullish breaker before dropping further down, now being traded at 1.36700. I would like to see GBPUSD going further down, going inside last week's NWOG, sweeping the Sellside Liquidity below 1.36600 level and then make an upwards move.
Targets for GBPUSD: 1.36680, 1.36600 and 1.36520.
XAUUSD (Gold) – 1H Support Reaction After Sharp SelloffAfter a strong rejection from the higher resistance area, price made a sharp bearish correction into a major support zone. Current reaction suggests a possible relief bounce, but structure remains corrective unless resistance is reclaimed.
Major Support: 4760 – 4800
Recovery Resistance: 5050 – 5120
Higher Resistance: 5350 – 5400
Market is in a corrective phase. Watch for support hold and breakout above resistance to confirm recovery continuation. Risk management is essential.
USD/JPY | Going for the NWOG high! (READ THE CAPTION)As you can see, USDJPY has been struggling with Jan 26th's NWOG Low. At the moment it has passed it and this weeks NWOG, being traded at 155.20. I expect USDJPY to go through the Consequent Encroachment of last week's NWOG and go for the high of it.
For now, the targets are: 155.27, 155.40, 155.53 and 155.66.
EUR/USD | Where is it headed? (READ THE CAPTION)As you can see in the hourly chart of EURUSD, after hitting 1.2083 last week, it started to gradually drop in price, now being traded at 1.18630. So far today, it's been going up and down the Jan 26th and Feb 2nd NWOGs, now being slightly higher than the Jan 26th NWOG high. I expect EURUSD to test Jan 27th NDOG. If it fails to go above the NDOG, it could drop 1.18300, sweeping the liquidity there and then going back up.
Bearish Targets for EURUSD: 1.18570, 1.18490, 1.1841 and 1.1833.
Bullish targets: 1.1866, 1.1874 and 1.1883.
AUDJPY: Price Action & Swing Analysis
The analysis of the AUDJPY chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to tank due to the rising pressure from the sellers.
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EURGBP: Bullish Continuation & Long Trade
EURGBP
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long EURGBP
Entry Point - 0.8654
Stop Loss - 0.8650
Take Profit - 0.8661
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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NZDJPY My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for NZDJPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 93.349
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 92.827
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Chart Analysis & Trading Idea (Gold / XAUUSD – 15 min)Price is in an overall bearish structure (lower highs & lower lows).
After a strong drop, price made a pullback into the marked upper demand / supply area (actually acting as resistance now).
The highlighted Demand Zone above has already been tested and rejected, showing selling pressure.
Current price action suggests weak bullish momentum and potential trend continuation to the downside.
Trading Idea:
Sell from the upper zone / resistance area if price shows rejection (bearish candle, wick, or structure break).
Targets:
First target: Lower demand zone
Extended target: Below the demand zone if momentum increases
Stop Loss:
Above the upper zone / recent high
Bias:
📉 Bearish – sell on pullback
If you want, I can also:
USD JPY long. Post PMI data Following Friday's PPI data, today's US PMI data adds weight to USD weakness being overdone (for now).
The market appears to like the data with the S&P reacting positively and there is also a case for AUD, NZD or GBP long Vs the JPY.
For better or worse I've chosen the USD because if feel it should directly benefit from the positive data.
The main risk to the trade is BOJ shenanigans causing intervention concerns.
Accumulation, Manipulation, and DistributionMarkets do not move randomly. They rotate through phases that allow large participants to build positions, protect those positions, and eventually exit them. Accumulation, manipulation, and distribution describe this rotation. They are not patterns to trade blindly. They are a framework for understanding why price behaves the way it does at certain locations.
Accumulation occurs when price moves sideways after a decline or during a pause in a larger trend. Volatility contracts, ranges tighten, and progress slows. This is not indecision. It is inventory building. Large positions cannot be entered in one candle without moving price against themselves. Accumulation allows orders to be filled gradually while keeping price contained. Breakouts during this phase often fail because the market is still absorbing liquidity, not ready to expand.
Manipulation is the transition phase. Once enough inventory is built, the market seeks liquidity to fuel expansion. This usually appears as a sharp move beyond the range highs or lows. Stops are triggered, breakout traders enter, and price briefly accelerates. If the move lacks follow-through and quickly reclaims the range, it signals that the breakout was used to fill orders, not to establish direction. The purpose is not deception for its own sake. It is efficient execution.
Distribution follows expansion. After a directional move, price begins to stall. Impulses weaken, volatility compresses, and progress slows again.
This is where positions built earlier are reduced or closed. Distribution often forms near obvious highs or after extended trends, where late participants are still entering with confidence. Liquidity becomes available again, allowing exits without collapsing price immediately.
These phases repeat across timeframes.
A small accumulation on a lower timeframe can exist inside a higher timeframe distribution. This nesting explains why markets can trend strongly while still producing frequent false signals intraday. The phase you are trading matters more than the setup you are using.
The practical edge comes from alignment. Accumulation favors patience and waiting for confirmation. Manipulation requires restraint, not chasing. Distribution demands risk management and reduced exposure. When traders misidentify the phase, they trade against the market’s purpose. When they recognize it, execution becomes calmer, risk becomes clearer, and losses become easier to control.
Understanding accumulation, manipulation, and distribution does not predict exact turning points. It explains intent. When you trade with that intent instead of reacting to candles, you stop fighting the market and start working with it.
USOIL Is Going Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 62.274.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 65.500 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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AUDCAD Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDCAD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.949.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.944 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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SILVER BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
Hello, Friends!
SILVER pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is obviously falling on the 4H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 10,123.0 because the pair oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
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Buy the Rumor and Sell The NewsMarkets move before information becomes official because positioning always precedes confirmation. By the time news is released, expectations are already priced in. “Buy the rumor” describes this positioning phase, where capital reallocates based on anticipation rather than facts.
Traders who act only on confirmation arrive when risk is highest and asymmetry is lowest.
Rumors form when uncertainty exists and narrative fills the gap. Expectations about events, data, upgrades, or macro decisions begin circulating long before outcomes are known. During this phase, liquidity is thin and positioning builds gradually. Price advances not because certainty exists, but because participants want exposure before clarity removes opportunity.
As the rumor spreads, price often trends cleanly. Pullbacks are shallow, momentum holds, and dips are bought quickly. This is not because the outcome is guaranteed, but because risk is perceived as acceptable relative to potential upside.
The danger appears near confirmation. When the news becomes official, uncertainty collapses. Everyone knows the outcome, and participation peaks. Liquidity increases sharply as late buyers enter and early participants begin exiting. This is why markets frequently stall, reverse, or distribute immediately after positive news. The trade was never about the event itself. It was about positioning ahead of it.
Selling after confirmation is not manipulation. It is inventory management. Capital that entered early needs liquidity to exit. News provides that liquidity. When expectations are fully priced, continuation requires new incentive, not old information.
The practical takeaway is not to trade headlines. It is to observe behavior before them. Watch how price reacts during anticipation. Strong trends with controlled pullbacks suggest accumulation. Choppy price with sharp spikes suggests distribution forming. When confirmation arrives, reassess rather than assume continuation.
“Buy the rumor” works because markets move on expectations and pause on certainty. Traders improve when they stop reacting to news and start reading how the market positions itself in advance. The edge lies in understanding when probability is expanding and when it has already been spent.






















