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Can NZD/USD Push Higher? Bullish Setup Explained!💹 NZD/USD "The Kiwi" Day Trade Plan 🥝✨ 🎯 Plan Overview This setup is designed with a bullish outlook on NZD/USD. Think of it as a tactical layering strategy, where we sneak entries step by step (like clever market thieves 🎭), stacking multiple limit orders for precision. Trend Context: 🔴 & 🟢 Moving Averages = Dynamic Levels (MA flips from resistance ➝ support 🔄) 📊 William %R = showing a golden bullish signal ✨ 💥 Bulls & traders smashing through MA = momentum shift 🚀 🛠️ Trade Setup Entry: Layered buy limit orders at: 👉 0.59300 | 0.59400 | 0.59500 | 0.59600 (Scalable — add more layers if market structure allows 📈) Stop Loss: Recommended safety net: 0.59100 🛡️ Reminder: Adjust SL according to your own risk management & style. Target: 🎯 Profit zone near 0.60400 ⚠️ Key note: Resistance = “Police barricade 🚓” (strong supply zone + overbought risk). Exit before the trap closes & secure the bag 💼. 🧠 Notes for Traders This is a strategy-style setup, not financial advice. SL/TP levels are flexible — adapt based on your own risk & money management rules. Market = battlefield. Respect your plan, don’t get greedy. 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch OANDA:AUDUSD (high correlation with NZD/USD — Aussie often shadows Kiwi moves 🪙) OANDA:NZDJPY (risk sentiment driver — Kiwi strength shows here 🔥) TVC:DXY (Dollar Index — strong inverse correlation ⚖️, watch USD tone for confirmation) FX:EURUSD (broad USD flow impact 🌍) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #NZDUSD #Forex #DayTrading #Kiwi #PriceAction #ForexStrategy #MarketAnalysis #SwingTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #FX
Long
by The-Thief
Ready For The Kiwi To Run? NZD/JPY Bullish Setup Unfolding >🚨 NZD/JPY | “Kiwi vs Yen” Thief Layer Strategy 🎭 (Swing/Day Trade) 📝 Trade Idea: Bullish Breakout Pending Plan Asset: OANDA:NZDJPY (Kiwi vs Yen) Plan: Bullish (Pending Order Plan) Breakout Trigger: Price breakout above 87.900⚡ — bullish candle close beyond Ichimoku Cloud confirms the plan activation. Entry Style (Thief Layer Strategy): Using layered buy-limit entries → (87.200), (87.500), (87.700), (87.900). Layers are adjustable based on trader preference. Tip: Set a TradingView alarm at breakout zone (87.900) to easily catch activation. 🛡️ Risk Management Stop Loss (Thief SL): Suggested @86.700 (after breakout confirmation). Adjust your SL according to your own strategy & risk. Take Profit (Escape Target): First barricade @89.500. Exit before resistance traps the move. Reminder: SL/TP levels shared are for educational reference — please adapt to your own risk tolerance. 🔎 Why This Plan? (Thief Strategy + Market Data) 📊 Real-Time Market Data (Sep 9, 2025) Spot Rate: 87.57 JPY per 1 NZD Daily Change: +0.05% 📈 Trend: Slightly bullish intraday 😊😟 Trader Sentiment Retail Traders → Long: 45% 🟢 | Short: 55% 🔴 Institutions → Long: 50% 🟢 | Short: 50% 🔴 Retail lean bearish, institutions balanced → setup may favor breakout traps. 😨😄 Fear & Greed Index Current Level: 52 → Neutral 😐 Market mood balanced, no extreme fear/greed force at play. 📋 Fundamental Score → 60/100 NZD drivers: RBNZ steady policy + resilient commodity exports 🧀🌾 JPY drivers: BoJ normalization + strong wage growth 💴 Overall: Balanced, slight NZD edge from steady exports. 🌍 Macro Score → 55/100 Global risk appetite: Neutral 📊 Japan wage growth (+4.1% YoY) → supports JPY 💪 NZ exports stable despite weather risks ☁️ Macro balanced, no strong bias but breakout setups viable. 🐂🐻 Overall Outlook Neutral-to-Bullish Bias: Fundamentals and macro are balanced, but Ichimoku breakout with thief layering adds bullish opportunity window. 📌 Related Pairs to Watch OANDA:AUDJPY | OANDA:NZDUSD | FX:USDJPY | OANDA:CADJPY ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #NZDJPY #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrade #Ichimoku #Breakout #LayerStrategy #KiwiVsYen #ThiefTrader
Long
by The-Thief
Fundamental & Technical Analysis: EUR Weakness vs Strong JPY!Today, I want to review the EURJPY ( OANDA:EURJPY ) short position from a fundamental and technical perspective and see if we can profit from this analysis. Fundamental Analysis: 1. Economic Weakness in the Eurozone Recent economic data indicate weakness in the Eurozone economy. For instance, retail sales in the Eurozone increased by only 2.2% in July, falling short of expectations. Additionally, inflation rates in the Eurozone are declining, suggesting weak demand in the economy. Mitrade 2. European Central Bank's Monetary Policies The European Central Bank is considering interest rate cuts to support the economy. Such policies could lead to a depreciation of the euro, presenting opportunities for short positions. 3. Economic Strength in Japan In contrast, Japan's economy is showing signs of improvement. Positive economic data, including increased industrial production and exports, indicate economic growth in Japan. This could lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen and a decline in the EURJPY pair. 4. Bank of Japan's Monetary Policies The Bank of Japan continues its accommodative monetary policies, including negative interest rates and extensive asset purchase programs. These measures help mitigate downward pressure on the yen, supporting its strength. Conclusion Considering the economic weakness in the Eurozone and the economic strength in Japan, the EURJPY pair is likely to experience a downward trend in the short term. This fundamental analysis supports a short position on EUR/JPY. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Now, let's examine the EURJPY chart on the 4-hour time frame with technical analysis tools . EURJPY is currently moving in the Resistance zone(173.420 JPY-172.660 JPY) and near the Monthly Resistance(1) . From the Elliott wave theory perspective , it seems that EURJPY has managed to complete the microwave C of the main wave y of the Double Three Correction(WXY) . I expect EURJPY to continue its downward trend in the coming hours and at least decline to the Support lines(First Target) . Second Target: 171.760 JPY Third Target: Lower lines of the Ascending Channel Stop Loss(SL): 173.640 JPY Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/Japanese Yen Analysis (EURJPY), 4-hour Time Frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
19
EUR/CAD: Launching Long! Layered Entry Strategy For Gains💸 EUR/CAD "Euro vs Loonie" Bank Plan (Swing / Scalping) 📊 🎯 Trading Plan (Thief Layering Strategy) Asset: EUR/CAD Setup: Bullish Hull Moving Average breakout + retest 🟢 Entry (Layering Style): Multiple buy limit orders at 1.60800 1.60900 1.61000 1.61200 (You can expand layers based on your own risk preference) Stop Loss (SL): Thief SL @ 1.60600 (adjust to your own risk strategy) 🛡️ Target (TP): Resistance "police barricade" around 1.62200 🏁 ⚠️ Note: This is not financial advice — manage your own TP and risk as per your trading plan. 🔍 Why This Plan? (Fundamental + Macro + Sentiment + Thief Blend) 📈 Real-Time Snapshot (Sept 5, 2025) EUR/CAD Spot Rate: 1.6025 Daily Change: +0.12% 52-Week Range: 1.4650 – 1.6350 👥 Trader Sentiment Retail Traders: 42% Long 🐂 | 58% Short 🐻 Institutions: 55% Long 🐂 | 45% Short 🐻 😱 Investor Mood (Fear & Greed) Index: 48/100 → Neutral ⚖️ (leaning fear due to global trade + US jobs data) 📋 Fundamentals Score: 62/100 🟢 Drivers: Eurozone growth resilient, ECB steady at 2% 🏦 Canada facing weak jobs data, BoC at 2.75% 🛢️ Oil prices steady, modest CAD support ⚡ 🌍 Macro Score Score: 58/100 🟡 Factors: Global trade tensions weigh on CAD 🛡️ Eurozone recovery boosts EUR 💪 US policy uncertainty adds volatility 🌪️ 🧭 Overall Market Outlook Bias: Neutral → Slightly Bullish Tilt 📈 Why: ECB support + Eurozone recovery outweigh CAD’s oil-linked strength. Range likely 1.60 – 1.63 short-term. 🚦 Related Pairs to Watch FX:EURUSD , OANDA:USDCAD , OANDA:GBPCAD , OANDA:EURGBP Keep an eye on BLACKBULL:WTI (Oil) for CAD correlation. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #EURCAD #Forex #TradingPlan #SwingTrading #Scalping #ThiefStrategy #HullMovingAverage #Fundamentals #MacroAnalysis #Sentiment #FXCommunity
Long
by The-Thief
2
USDCAD Long Setup: From PRZ to Resistance LinesToday, I want to review the USDCAD ( OANDA:USDCAD ) long position with you. USDCAD has reacted well to Support lines and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)(1.373 CAD-1.370 CAD) . From the perspective of Elliott wave theory , it seems that USDCAD has completed the microwave 5 of the main wave C . I expect USDCAD to rise to the Resistance lines in the short term. Second Target: 1.3817 CAD Stop Loss(SL): 1.3698 CAD Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar Analyze (USDCAD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
10
GBPUSD – PCE Data Could Set the Breakout🔹 Market Context Traders are waiting for the US PCE Price Index today. Forecasts suggest the data will likely be unchanged from the previous month, which could give the USD slight strength in the short term. GBPUSD is now trading inside a symmetrical triangle, and PCE may act as the catalyst for the breakout. 🔹 Technical Outlook (H2 Chart) Support zone: 1.3430 – 1.3450 (demand + trendline confluence). Next key support: 1.3340 – 1.3350. Resistance zones: 1.3550 – 1.3580 and 1.3660. Scenarios to Watch: 1️⃣ Bullish Setup If price holds above 1.3430 – 1.3450 and breaks the triangle resistance → Targets: 1.3550 – 1.3580, then 1.3660 if momentum continues. 2️⃣ Bearish Setup If PCE data boosts USD and GBPUSD breaks below 1.3430, Downside targets: 1.3340, with extension toward 1.3300. 🔹 Trading Plan (reference only) Buy Zone: 1.3430 – 1.3450 SL: 1.3400 TP: 1.3550 – 1.3580 → 1.3660 Sell Zone: break below 1.3430 SL: 1.3480 TP: 1.3340 → 1.3300 ✅ Summary: GBPUSD is at a make-or-break level. The 1.3430 pivot zone is the key to watch ahead of PCE. A bounce from here favors bulls toward 1.3550+, while a breakdown could trigger a deeper move into 1.3340.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
EUR/USD — Buyers Still in Control, Eyes on Key US DataEUR/USD continues to hold strong bullish momentum despite the recent recovery in USD (DXY). Traders are now closely watching today’s high-impact US economic releases during the New York session: 📊 USD Prelim GDP q/q → Forecast: 3.1% (Prev. 3.0%) 📊 USD Unemployment Claims → Forecast: 231K (Prev. 235K) 🔎 Market Outlook If US data comes out stronger than expected, the USD could regain momentum, putting pressure on EUR/USD. A potential correction may retest lower demand zones around 1.1615 – 1.159x. If the data is neutral or weaker, buyers could push higher into the 1.1703 zone, and possibly extend towards 1.1740 resistance, a key level aligned with previous supply and Fibonacci retracements. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 1.1703 – 1.1740 (major supply / fib zone) Support: 1.1657 – 1.1615 (short-term buy zone) Deep Support: 1.1593 (liquidity grab level) 🎯 MMFLOW Strategy 👉 Focus on reactions to US data release — volatility will be elevated. 👉 Wait for liquidity sweeps into demand zones for clean long setups. 👉 Short-term bias: still bullish as long as 1.1615 holds. ⚡️ Only one major economic event this week — meaning all market attention is on today’s release. Expect strong volatility! 💬 What do you think? Will EUR/USD power through 1.1700+, or will USD strength drag it back towards 1.16xx?
Long
by MMFlowTrading
EURCAD Divergence + Wave 5 Complete → Correction Ahead?EURCAD ( OANDA:EURCAD ) started to fall after entering the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and hitting the Resistance line . The question is whether EURCAD will continue to fall in the coming hours or not!! EURCAD has already managed to break the Support lines and is moving close to the Support zone(1.612 CAD-1.600 CAD) . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks. In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that EURCAD has managed to complete the main wave 5 , and we should wait for corrective waves . I expect EURCAD to drop to at least 1.601 CAD AFTER breaking the Support zone(1.612 CAD-1.600 CAD) . Second target: 1.597 CAD Third target: Support line Stop Loss(SL): 1.626 CAD Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/Canadian Dollar Analyze (EURCAD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
10
NZD/USD The Kiwi Heist Plan – Breakout or Bust?🦘 NZD/USD "The Kiwi" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🦘 🎯 MISSION: BEARISH (PENDING ORDER HEIST) 🎯 📍 THE ENTRY PLAN: THE BREAKOUT TRIGGER ⚡ MAIN ENTRY SIGNAL: Wait for the BREAKOUT & CLOSE below 0.58000! This is when the bank vault door gets cracked! ⚡ 🧨 THIEF'S LAYERED ENTRY STRATEGY: Don't go all in! We use multiple SELL LIMIT orders to scale in like a pro. After the breakout, set your heist layers at: 1st Layer (Safe Loot): 0.58100 2nd Layer (Main Loot): 0.58200 3rd Layer (Ballsy Loot): 0.58400 🤑 You can add more layers based on your own risk appetite! This is the thief's way (DCA/Layering). 🛑 THE ESCAPE ROUTE: STOP LOSS 👮♂️ THIEF OG's STOP LOSS: Our getaway car is parked at 0.58800. Place your SL ONLY AFTER the 0.58000 breakout is confirmed! 📢 Attention all Thieves & Robbers: Adjust your final SL based on your own risk management, lot size, and how many layers you used! Protect your capital! 👊 💰 THE FINAL TARGET: CASH OUT & ESCAPE 🚨 Police Barricade Ahead! Don't get greedy! The mission is to escape with the stolen money at 0.57000! 🚨 🔊 THIEF'S LOOTING MANUAL (READ THIS!): 🚨 Set a CHART ALERT at 0.58000! Don't miss the heist signal! 📰 NEWS = POLICE PATROLS! Avoid opening new trades during high-impact news. It increases volatility and risk! 🔐 Manage Your Position! This is your key to survival. Use proper risk/reward ratios. 💖 SUPPORT THE HEIST CREW! 💥 SMASH THAT LIKE & BOOST BUTTON! 💥 It fuels our next robbery plan! Let's make stealing money from the market look EASY! 🤑🚀 I'll see you on the next heist, Thief! Stay sharp! 🐱‍👤🤝
Short
by The-Thief
EURNZD Eyes 1.99 — Technical & Fundamental Bulls AlignedToday, I want to analyze EURNZD ( OANDA:EURNZD ) for you, which is in good shape both technically and fundamentally . Please stay with me. EURNZD is moving close to the Support zone(1.88750 NZD-1.7970 NZD) and 100_SMA(Daily) and has managed to form a Double Bottom Pattern . From the perspective of Elliott Wave theory , EURNZD seems to have completed the main wave 4 , and we should wait for the main wave 5 . The main wave 5 could complete at the Heavy Resistance zone(2.120 NZD-1.9927 NZD) . ----------------------------------- EURNZD – Fundamental Analysis: The EURNZD pair currently reflects a divergence between two very different economic outlooks. Eurozone (EUR): The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently begun cutting interest rates to support slowing economic activity, especially in the industrial and manufacturing sectors. Despite this dovish shift, inflation remains relatively under control, and the euro has held up well against riskier currencies thanks to global uncertainty and safe-haven flows. New Zealand (NZD): New Zealand's economy is under pressure. The latest GDP figures confirmed a weak growth outlook, and signs of a technical recession are mounting. While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish tone, it faces a dilemma: inflation is sticky, but domestic demand and housing remain fragile. The RBNZ may be forced to soften its stance sooner than expected. Outlook: This fundamental backdrop supports a bullish bias for EURNZD. The euro’s relative stability versus the increasingly vulnerable New Zealand dollar makes this pair attractive for long positions — especially if upcoming NZ data disappoints or global risk sentiment weakens further. ----------------------------------- Based on the above explanation, I expect EURNZD to rise to at least 1.9917 NZD . Note: Stop Loss(SL): 1.8779 NZD Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/New Zealand Dollar Analyze (EURNZD), Daily time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
1
EURUSD Bears Ready to Take ControlEURUSD( FX:EURUSD ) is currently trading in a Heavy resistance zone($1.1815-$1.1602) and near the Resistance lines and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has completed a corrective wave. The corrective wave has a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) structure . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . I expect EURUSD to decline at least to the Support zone($1.1642-$1.1578) . Second Target: Monthly Pivot Point = $1.15491 Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $1.1803 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
17
GBPUSD – Hourly Head & Shoulders in PlaySpotting a potential head and shoulders pattern on the GBPUSD hourly chart. I’m still waiting for confirmation before entering the trade. Trade Setup: Risk/Reward: 3.4 Entry: 1.34433 Stop Loss: 1.34645 Take Profit 1 (50%): 1.33822 Take Profit 2 (50%): 1.33603 On the higher time frame, price is also testing diagonal resistance — adding extra confluence to the short bias. For now, it’s a waiting game to see if the pattern confirms. 💡 Trading Tip: Nobody knows for certain where the market will go — always predefine your risk before entering a trade. Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Short
by GTradingMethod
USD/CAD Bullish Heist Plan – Will You Join the Crew?💼💸 USD/CAD "The Loonie" – Bullish Vault Heist Plan 🕶️📈 "Layer the Entry. Stack the Cash. Escape Clean." 🧠 Mastermind Setup (Thief Trader Blueprint) 🔍 Asset: USD/CAD – The Loonie (Forex Market) 📜 Plan: Bullish — Thief is moving in with precision layering strategy. 📈 Entry Plan: Thief’s not kicking the door once—he’s picking multiple locks! Layer those buy limits for stealth entries: (1.37700) 🏦 | (1.37500) 💰 | (1.37300) 🔑 | (1.37000) 🚪 💡 Add more layers if the vault’s deeper than expected. 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 🎯 Official Thief SL parked @ 1.37000. But remember—OG thieves adjust SL to match their risk appetite & personal strategy. 🎯 Target: 1.38680 – Grab the loot and vanish! 📢 Heist Intel (Market Context) USD/CAD is eyeing upside momentum, powered by USD strength + oil price plays. Expect pullbacks before the real breakout—perfect for layered infiltration. ⚠️ Thief’s Street Rules: Don’t enter during high-impact news — guards will be on alert. Use trailing stops to protect the loot once in profit. Layer patiently—don’t rush the vault door. 💣 Final Words from the Crew: Every pip is a coin in the bag. Stay disciplined, stay layered, and leave no trace. 🐱‍👤💎 💖 Boost the plan, share with the crew, and let’s make this Loonie Heist legendary. 🚀💼
Long
by The-Thief
GBPAUD Reverses from Key Zone – Long Setup in Play!Today I want to share with you a Long position on GBPAUD ( OANDA:GBPAUD ). GBPAUD started to rise well from the Important Support line , Support zone(2.032 AUD-1.987 AUD) , and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and managed to close the 4-hour candle above 2.053 AUD (important) . In terms of Elliott wave theory , GBPAUD seems to have completed the main wave 4 . The main wave 4 structure was a Double Three Correction(WXY) . Also, along the way, we can see a Bullish Marubozu candle , which could indicate a continuation of the uptrend . I expect GBPAUD to break the Resistance lines soon and attack the Resistance zone(2.078 AUD-2.066 AUD) . First Target: 2.065 AUD Second Target: 2.076 AUD Note: Stop Loss(SL): 2.040 =Worst SL Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. British Pound/ Australian Dollar Analyze (GBPAUD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
23
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – August 4–8, 2025New Month. New Week. New Questions. Will the market reward hesitation — or bold reaction? Will POTUS pump price with policy noise, or will smart money fade the manipulation? August is historically a quieter month for hedge funds — but don’t mistake silence for safety. It's also the time when the Fed retreats to Jackson Hole, reflecting and recalibrating. Will September bring another rate cut… or another twist? Stay sharp. This isn’t a month to sleep on. "Last week's game plan played out nearly to perfection — well, almost! Let’s dive in and break down where gold could be headed next week." Gold kicks off August with a strong breakout above $3360, powered by a weakening U.S. dollar, rising global risk appetite, and persistent institutional demand. With Jackson Hole on the horizon and shifting Fed expectations, volatility is set to spike. The big question: will gold extend above premium, or retrace to rebalance? After the last rejection near 3440, price broke cleanly below its ascending channel. Now, gold appears to be forming a potential lower high around the broken trendline — a rejection here could trigger a drop toward the key $3250 support zone. 🟡 XAUUSD – August Macro Outlook 💰 Price: $3362 📅 Date: August 3, 2025 📈 Bias: Bullish but extended — high in premium 🔸 Monthly Overview 📊 Trend: Bullish continuation (CHoCH April 2023) 🧱 Supply Zone: 3350–3439 → monthly wick trap ⚠️ RSI 80+, price nearing 100% Fib extension 🔮 Breakout above 3439 → 3505 / 3610 next 🔻 Rejection → pullback to 3270 / 3180 🔸 Weekly Outlook 💥 Structure: Strong bullish, EMA stack intact 🟥 Final HTF Supply: 3350–3439 (currently testing) 🟦 Demand Below: 3270 → 3215 → 3070 🎯 Targets if breakout: 3505 → 3560 → 3610 🔸 Daily Structure ⚔️ Now testing: 3355–3375 → last valid supply 🎭 Above that → internal trap at 3398–3412 🧨 Final ceiling at 3430–3439 — breakout or reversal? 🔸 H4 / H1 Key Zones 🟥 Supply: 3360–3375 / 3385–3398 / 3430–3439 🟫 Flip Long Zone: 3322–3310 🟦 Bullish Demand: 3285–3260 → 3222–3205 ⚠️ RSI elevated, watch for reaction not breakout 🔹 Execution Plan ✅ Above 3439 → Expansion to 3505 / 3610 🔁 Pullback to 3325 / 3285 → Sniper long zones 🔻 Rejection from 3375 → Short scalp → Target 3320 📌 3439 = Key Monthly Pivot 🟢 Hold above → New expansion wave 🔴 Fail below → Retrace toward value Extended: 🔸 Scenario 1: Breakout and Expansion If bulls push through 3375 with conviction and break above 3439, gold enters a fresh leg of macro price discovery. This would activate a clean expansion path toward: 3405 (short-term extension) 3505 → 3560 → 3610 (Fibonacci projections) 3740 (full trend extension if momentum persists) This scenario requires solid bullish confirmation, especially on H4 or D1 structure. Traders should look for LTF OB re-entries or bullish flags above 3350 to join the trend safely. 🔸 Scenario 2: Rejection and Retrace If gold rejects from the 3360–3375 zone and fails to hold above it, a controlled retracement is likely. Key downside targets include: 3325 → first flip zone for re-entry 3285 → origin of the latest rally (strong buy zone) 3215–3180 → high-timeframe demand and imbalance fill Only a breakdown below 3260 would threaten the bullish structure and shift bias toward neutral or bearish. 🔸 Conclusion Gold is approaching its inflection point. The macro trend is intact, but momentum is stretched, and the market now demands clear validation. 📌 3439 remains the weekly pivot: Above → Expansion toward 3500+ Below → Retracement to reclaim value For next week, the most probable path is early consolidation inside 3360–3375, followed by a decisive reaction — either continuation toward 3405+, or a corrective drop toward 3325/3285 to reset structure. Disclaimer: For educational context only. #XAUUSD #Gold #SmartMoney #TradingAnalysis #SMC #USD #GoldOutlook
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FX_Scrubbs
EURAUD Ready to Bounce? Key Support & Fundamentals Aligned!Today I want to share a Long position idea on EURAUD ( OANDA:EURAUD ) with you. From a fundamental perspective , both the Euro (EUR) and Australian Dollar (AUD) are currently under pressure. However, the Aussie appears fundamentally weaker in the short term, making the EURAUD Long setup more favorable at this stage. AUD Weakness : The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held rates steady at 3.85%, but recent inflation data has dropped to 2.7%, the lowest in over 3 years. Most economists now expect the RBA to cut rates in its next meeting in August, possibly by 25 basis points. Slowing economic growth and dovish forward guidance from the central bank are weighing heavily on AUD sentiment. EUR Outlook : The European Central Bank (ECB) is also facing weak economic data, but is taking a more cautious approach toward cutting rates. Despite softer PMIs and sluggish growth in countries like Germany and France, the ECB has not confirmed a near-term rate cut, keeping EUR relatively stable. This divergence between the RBA’s dovish stance and the ECB’s pause is supportive of EUR strength against AUD. Summary : With the RBA likely to ease policy soon and the ECB holding ground for now, the interest rate differential favors EURAUD upside. Fundamentals point toward further weakness in AUD, making the EURAUD Long a strategically sound trade idea for the coming days. ------------------------------------------- Now let's analyze the conditions of the EURAUD chart on the 4-hour time frame . EURAUD is currently trading near the Support zone(1.772 AUD-1.763 AUD) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and near the lower line of the descending channel . According to Elliott Wave theory , EURAUD appears to have completed a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys . I expect EURAUD to rise to at least 1.784 AUD . Second Target: 1.792 AUD Note: Stop Loss(SL): 1.762 AUD Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/Australian Dollar Analyze (EURAUD), 4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
18
GBPUSD: Bearish Momentum vs. Fundamental Repricing – Key LevelsGBPUSD is at a critical juncture, balancing a clear technical breakdown with a fundamental backdrop favoring near-term volatility. The pair has slipped from its rising wedge structure and is now testing key retracement zones while markets reprice expectations for Fed rate cuts after weak US jobs data. Traders are closely watching whether this bearish momentum will extend toward the 1.3128 support or if a rebound from oversold conditions could trigger a corrective bounce. Technical Analysis (8H Chart) Pattern: Clear breakdown from a rising wedge, confirming bearish bias. Current Level: Price sits near 1.3278, struggling to reclaim the 1.3300 resistance zone. Key Support Zones: 1.3128 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) – main bearish target. 1.2945 (78.6% retracement) – extended downside target if selling pressure deepens. Resistance Levels: 1.3300 (immediate resistance, prior support now flipped). 1.3380 (secondary resistance if a retracement rally occurs). Projection: Likely bearish continuation toward 1.3128, with a potential retest of 1.3300 before continuation. Fundamental Analysis Bias: Bearish in the short term, but Fed policy and risk sentiment remain key drivers. Key Fundamentals: USD: Weak NFP (73K), higher unemployment (4.2%), and downward revisions boost Fed cut bets (~75% for September), typically a USD-negative factor. GBP: BOE maintains a cautious stance due to sticky inflation but lacks clear hawkish conviction as growth slows. Tariffs: US tariffs add a mild negative weight on GBP trade sentiment. Risks: Hot US CPI could slow Fed cut bets, supporting USD. Hawkish BOE comments could limit GBP downside. Global risk sentiment shifts could either favor USD (risk-off) or weaken it further (risk-on). Key Events: US CPI and PPI for USD direction. BOE policy updates and UK CPI. US jobless claims and Fed commentary. Leader/Lagger Dynamics GBP/USD is a lagger, mainly reacting to USD shifts. However, its moves directly influence GBP crosses such as GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. Summary: Bias and Watchpoints GBP/USD remains in a bearish phase, targeting 1.3128 with a potential corrective bounce toward 1.3300 first. The primary driver is the technical breakdown, while fundamentals add volatility around US CPI and BOE policy. If CPI surprises lower, the bearish outlook could reverse into a short-term rebound; if CPI is hot, downside momentum could extend. You should monitor USD-driven events closely as GBP/USD sets the tone for broader GBP movements.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
July 30 2025 USDJPY Buy Limit ActivatedGood day, folks! Another trade today! This is a continuation trade before the USD fundamental news. I've got some useful schematics on my chart for trading continuation momentum patterns with positive confluence in your fundamentals. You can see a swing structure BOS with validity of an internal structure: another BOS. I waited for the price to tap again into that valid order block, which also had validity of internal structure - BOS. The risk-reward (RR) is 1:4. Check the chart for detailed annotations. I hope you find value in this trade today. Until next time! #proptrader #wyckoff #supplyanddemand #riskmanagement
Long
by glyrad
EURGBP Analysis : Bearish Leg Nearing Completion + Target Zone📍 Overview: The EURGBP pair has recently provided significant price action signals that suggest a high-probability reversal setup is unfolding. This analysis dives deep into market structure, supply and demand dynamics, and institutional price behavior using MMC principles. The current focus lies in identifying a potential trend reversal opportunity after a sharp decline from a key supply level, as price nears a well-marked Reversal Zone. This detailed breakdown covers each phase to provide clarity and trade planning. 🧩 Phase 1: Consolidation Phase (Accumulation) From July 11th to July 24th, EURGBP moved sideways within a clearly defined range-bound structure (highlighted in green). This consolidation indicates a battle of control between bulls and bears, typically signaling accumulation or distribution depending on breakout direction. The tight price action and wicks on both sides suggest market makers accumulating positions before a breakout. Price eventually broke out to the upside, confirming bullish accumulation rather than distribution. 🚀 Phase 2: Impulse Move & 2x Supply Rejection Following the breakout from the consolidation, price experienced a strong impulsive rally, catching breakout traders and pushing into a major supply zone. The area where price reversed is marked as a 2x supply rejection zone, suggesting heavy institutional sell orders were triggered. This zone aligns with a historical resistance level and is critical in the current structure. Price failed to sustain the bullish momentum, forming a sharp drop right after tapping into supply, indicating strong selling pressure. 🔄 Phase 3: Market Structure Shift via QFL (Quick Flip Levels) As the price dropped from the supply zone, two significant QFL levels were printed in quick succession. QFL (Quick Flip Levels) represent a break in internal structure, showing that buyers were no longer defending the previous support zones. These quick flips signal an aggressive shift in momentum from buyers to sellers. Each QFL breakdown was followed by a new lower low, confirming the start of a bearish sequence or trend leg. 📉 Phase 4: Descending Trendline & Dynamic Resistance After the QFL shifts, a clear downtrend channel formed, respected by multiple lower highs. The descending trendline drawn from the supply zone peak has acted as dynamic resistance, rejecting every bullish pullback attempt. This trendline provides technical confluence for intraday traders to manage risk and timing entries. 🟠 Current Market Context: Entering the Reversal Zone Price is now approaching a marked Reversal Zone (highlighted in orange). This zone represents a high-probability demand area, previously respected as a base before the rally to supply. If price reaches this area and shows signs of exhaustion (e.g., bullish engulfing, long wick rejection, volume divergence), it may serve as a reversal point. This zone aligns with MMC logic — market makers tend to react at zones of trapped liquidity, especially after stop hunts. 📈 Projected Scenario & Trade Setup: Price drops into the Reversal Zone A bullish rejection pattern appears (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle) Price retests and breaks the descending trendline to confirm a momentum shift Entry can be taken post-breakout or with aggressive confirmation inside the zone Stops placed below the zone; targets aligned with the previous QFL or trendline retest ⚠️ Key Notes for Traders: Don't chase the move. Wait for reversal confirmation before entering. QFLs offer strong structure-based levels to identify where the market flipped. Use trendline confluence and volume confirmation for precise entries. Monitor price action in the Reversal Zone — if invalidated, the downtrend may extend toward the next macro support. Apply proper risk management and stay patient for the setup to fully develop. 📊 Summary: 🧭 Bias: Short-term bearish → possible reversal bullish 🎯 Entry Area: Reversal Zone (0.85800 – 0.86000 approx.) ⛔ Invalidation: Clean break and close below 0.85700 🏁 Potential Target: First TP near 0.86750; extended TP near 0.87050 (previous QFL level) 🔄 MMC Approach Recap: This analysis follows the Market Maker Cycle (MMC) method, which involves: Consolidation (Accumulation) Manipulation (False Breakouts or Stop Hunts) Distribution (Rapid Expansion & Flip Levels) Re-Accumulation or Reversal Each step is clearly defined in this chart, offering a blueprint for both trend traders and reversal specialists. 💬 Let's Talk: What do you think about this setup? Are you seeing similar MMC patterns on other EUR or GBP crosses? Drop your thoughts, charts, and questions below!
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
Short Opportunity on GBPUSD – Technical & Fundamentals AlignToday I want to look at the Short position opportunity in GBPUSD ( FX:GBPUSD ). So let's take a look at the GBPUSD pair from a fundamental and technical perspective. Fundamental Analysis: The British Pound remains under pressure due to growing expectations of a 25–50 bps rate cut by the Bank of England in early August. Markets are increasingly leaning toward easing as UK inflation hit 3.6% in June, the highest in over a year, while economic growth weakened and consumer confidence dropped to its lowest since early 2024 Ongoing fiscal concerns, including potential tax hikes and budget instability, continue to weigh on the pound. In contrast, the US Dollar( TVC:DXY ) remains relatively robust—supported by strong economic data and a safe-haven preference amid global uncertainty Summary: BoE easing becomes more likely due to weak UK data and inflation. Fiscal risks and low consumer sentiment add downward pressure on GBP. USD strength from solid data and safe-haven demand supports further GBPUSD downside. ------------------------- In terms of technical analysis , in the 1-hour timeframe , GBPUSD is approaching the Resistance zone($1.356-$1.350) , the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and the 50_SMA(Daily) . Meanwhile, this return to Important Support lines could act as a pullback to these lines. Important support lines and 50_SMA(Daily) were broken last week. In terms of Elliott Wave theory , GBPUSD appears to be completing a main wave 4 . Main wave 4 is likely to have a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) . I expect GBPUSD to start declining from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and reach the targets I have marked on the chart. Note: Stop Loss(SL): 1.3575USD = Worst Stop Loss(SL) Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. British Pound / U.S Dollar Analysis (GBPUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
19