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Gold Rally at Its Peak – Correction on the Horizon?Gold Rally at Its Peak – Correction on the Horizon? Gold (XAUUSD) Technical–Fundamental Market Report Over the past weeks, gold has shown a significant transition in market structure. After a prolonged distribution and corrective phase through late July into mid-August, price action shifted decisively into a strong bullish cycle. The early downtrend was marked by repeated breaks of structure to the downside, reflecting selling pressure and controlled liquidity grabs. From late August onward, gold transitioned into accumulation, where price consolidated, absorbed liquidity, and built momentum. This was followed by a clear breakout phase, marked by multiple bullish break-of-structure signals. The market demonstrated aggressive upward expansion, driven by momentum and strong order flow, suggesting institutional positioning. Fundamentally, this aligns with the current macro backdrop: gold often gains strength when investors anticipate monetary policy easing, inflationary risks, or geopolitical tensions. The consistent bullish run reflects a flight-to-safety narrative, supported by capital inflows. Currently, price action shows extended bullish movement nearing exhaustion, with signs of potential short-term corrective pressure. The dotted projection suggests a retracement phase could be expected after testing higher liquidity zones, a natural reaction to overextended momentum.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by XAU_EMPIRE
Enhancing My Trading Strategy with a Free Backtesting ToolI wanted to share a recent step I’ve added to my trading process that’s been helping me refine my approach: backtesting. Since I treat trading as a continuous learning journey, I’ve been using backtesting to evaluate strategies before I even consider using them on my demo account. I’ve been testing a web-based backtesting platform that’s free to use. It lets me run through historical data much faster than trading in real-time, which helps me see how certain ideas might play out under different market conditions. I usually set a starting balance, pick a currency pair like EURUSD, and mark up the chart with my key levels—whether it’s structure, order blocks, or ranges. One thing I’ve learned is to save my layout often. The free version includes ads, and I’ve lost a few setups by not saving before an ad refresh. It’s a small thing, but it reminds me to be meticulous. The biggest benefit for me has been practicing risk management in a realistic but pressure-free setting. Before I place a simulated trade, I calculate my position size based on a fixed percentage risk. This helps me build discipline around controlling losses before worrying about profits. I’m not here to teach or advise—just sharing what’s been working for me as I learn. If you’ve been using backtesting as part of your process, I’d be curious to hear what insights you’ve gained.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
1
XAUUSDGold remains in a strong uptrend. Last Friday, the release of the non-farm payrolls figures, which were lower than expected, and a weaker dollar, pushed gold prices higher, reaching an all-time high of $3,600. Gold Direction: On Monday, as the gold price is currently facing no resistance, it appears to be trading very high. The RSI indicator is in the "overbought" zone, which could lead to short-term selling pressure. Main scenario: At the price zone of 3599$-3613$, if the gold price cannot break above the level of 3613$, there is a possibility of a short-term price drop, consider selling the red zone. (Very Risky Trade) 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Serana2324
If price breaks out strongly above 3600, gold may rally towards Central Banks Slow Gold Buying but Remain Net Buyers Despite the strong rally in gold prices, central banks (including the Reserve Bank of India) have shown signs of slowing their gold purchases. However, purchases continued at 10 tonnes in July — reflecting the long-term trend of diversifying reserves away from the USD 1. Resistance Zone Current price around 3587 is testing the strong resistance area 3590 – 3600 (highlighted in pink). This also coincides with the upward trendline (red line), which adds selling pressure. 📌 Conclusion: 3590–3600 is a key barrier that’s hard to break in the short term. 2. Support Zones (Fibonacci Levels) Support levels based on Fibonacci Retracement: 0.786 → 3529 0.618 → 3473 0.5 → 3434 (aligns with the blue support zone). Lower supports: 0.382 → 3395, 0.236 → 3347. 📌 The 3430–3470 range is seen as strong support for the medium term. 3. Trends & Scenarios Price has surged strongly since late August. Now it is facing heavy resistance around 3590–3600, with high probability of a pullback. Scenario 1 (Short-term correction 🔻) Price tests 3590–3600 but fails to break. Possible pullback towards 3529 – 3473 (0.786 & 0.618 levels). If broken further, the next target is 3430–3440. Scenario 2 (Bullish continuation 🔺) If price breaks out strongly above 3600, gold may rally towards 3640–3660. This requires supportive news (e.g., Fed dovish stance, weak USD, poor US data). 4. Summary Main resistance: 3590–3600 Key supports: 3529 – 3473 – 3430 Bias: Price is hitting resistance → short-term correction is more likely. 👉 Traders may consider short around 3590–3600, SL above 3610, TP around 3530–3470. 👉 If price breaks and holds above 3600, the bullish trend may extend further.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AstronautPioneer
Options in Forex Trading1. Introduction to Forex Options Foreign exchange (Forex or FX) is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, where currencies are traded around the clock. Beyond spot trading, which involves buying one currency against another for immediate delivery, there exists another powerful derivative instrument: Forex Options. Forex Options allow traders and investors to speculate on or hedge against the future movement of currency exchange rates without the obligation to actually buy or sell the currency. This flexibility makes them a popular tool among global corporations, hedge funds, institutional investors, and even sophisticated retail traders. In simple terms: a Forex Option gives you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a currency pair at a specific price before or on a specific date. This guide explores Forex Options in detail—how they work, their types, strategies, pricing, risks, benefits, and real-world applications. 2. What Are Forex Options? A Forex Option is a contract that gives the holder the right (but not the obligation) to exchange money in one currency for another at a pre-agreed exchange rate (strike price) on or before a specific date (expiry date). Unlike spot or forward forex contracts, where transactions are binding, options give the trader a choice: they can either exercise the option or let it expire worthless, depending on market conditions. Buyer of an option → Pays a premium upfront for the right. Seller (writer) of an option → Receives the premium but assumes the obligation if the buyer exercises the contract. This asymmetry in risk and reward is what makes options unique and powerful. 3. Basic Terminologies in Forex Options Before diving deeper, it’s essential to understand some key terms: Call Option – Right to buy a currency pair at the strike price. Put Option – Right to sell a currency pair at the strike price. Strike Price (Exercise Price) – The agreed exchange rate at which the option can be exercised. Expiration Date – The last date on which the option can be exercised. Premium – The price paid by the buyer to the seller for the option. In-the-Money (ITM) – Option has intrinsic value (profitable if exercised now). Out-of-the-Money (OTM) – Option has no intrinsic value (not profitable if exercised). At-the-Money (ATM) – Current spot rate equals strike price. European Option – Can only be exercised at expiry. American Option – Can be exercised anytime before expiry. 4. How Do Forex Options Work? Let’s take an example: You believe that the EUR/USD (Euro vs US Dollar) pair, currently trading at 1.1000, will rise in the next month. You buy a 1-month EUR/USD call option with a strike price of 1.1050, paying a premium of $500. Possible outcomes: If EUR/USD rises to 1.1200 → Your option is In-the-Money. You can exercise and buy euros cheaper than the market price. Profit = Gain – Premium. If EUR/USD stays below 1.1050 → The option expires worthless. Loss = Premium paid ($500). This example shows the limited risk (premium only) but unlimited upside potential for option buyers. 5. Types of Forex Options There are multiple types of Forex Options available in global markets: 5.1 Vanilla Options (Standard Options) The most common type. Includes call and put options. Available in both European and American styles. 5.2 Exotic Options More complex and tailored contracts, often used by corporations and institutions. Examples: Binary Options – Pay a fixed amount if the condition is met, otherwise nothing. Barrier Options – Activated or deactivated if the currency reaches a certain level. Digital Options – Similar to binary but with different payoff structures. Lookback Options – Payoff depends on the best or worst exchange rate during the contract period. Exotics are less common for retail traders but popular in corporate hedging. 6. Why Trade Forex Options? 6.1 Benefits Hedging tool – Protect against adverse currency moves. Leverage with defined risk – Premium is the maximum loss. Flexibility – Traders can profit from bullish, bearish, or neutral markets. Non-linear payoffs – Unlike forwards/futures, options have asymmetric risk-reward. 6.2 Limitations Premium cost can be high, especially during volatile markets. Complexity in pricing and strategies. Not as liquid as spot forex for retail traders. 7. Pricing of Forex Options (The Greeks & Black-Scholes) Pricing options is complex because many factors affect the premium: Spot exchange rate Strike price Time to expiration Volatility of the currency pair Interest rate differential between two currencies The most common pricing model is the Black-Scholes Model, adapted for currencies. Traders also use The Greeks to measure risks: Delta – Sensitivity of option price to currency movement. Gamma – Sensitivity of delta to price changes. Theta – Time decay (loss of value as expiry approaches). Vega – Sensitivity to volatility. Rho – Sensitivity to interest rates. Understanding these helps traders manage risk effectively. 8. Forex Option Trading Strategies 8.1 Single-Leg Strategies Buying Calls – Bullish view on a currency pair. Buying Puts – Bearish view on a currency pair. 8.2 Multi-Leg Strategies Straddle – Buy a call and put at the same strike/expiry to profit from volatility. Strangle – Buy OTM call and put (cheaper than straddle). Butterfly Spread – Limited-risk strategy betting on low volatility. Collar Strategy – Combine a protective put and covered call to limit risk. 8.3 Corporate Hedging Exporters may buy put options to protect against a falling foreign currency. Importers may buy call options to hedge against rising foreign currency costs. 9. Risks in Forex Options Premium Loss – Buyers can lose the entire premium. Unlimited Loss for Sellers – Option writers face potentially large losses. Liquidity Risk – Some exotic options may not have an active secondary market. Complexity – Advanced strategies require deep knowledge. Market Volatility – Unexpected events (e.g., central bank interventions) can drastically alter outcomes. 10. Real-World Applications of Forex Options 10.1 Corporate Hedging A US company expecting payment in euros may buy a put option on EUR/USD to protect against euro depreciation. 10.2 Speculation Hedge funds may use straddles around major events (like US Fed announcements) to profit from volatility. 10.3 Arbitrage Traders exploit mispricings between spot, forwards, and options. 10.4 Risk Management Central banks and large financial institutions sometimes use options to stabilize foreign reserves. Conclusion Forex Options are a sophisticated financial instrument that combines flexibility, leverage, and risk management. Unlike spot and forward contracts, they provide the right but not the obligation to trade currencies, making them a versatile tool for hedgers and speculators alike. While options can protect businesses from currency risk and provide retail traders with powerful speculative opportunities, they require deep knowledge of pricing, volatility, and strategies. Misuse or lack of understanding can lead to significant losses, especially for option writers. In the ever-evolving forex market, where geopolitical events, economic policies, and global trade dynamics influence currency prices, Forex Options remain one of the most effective instruments for managing uncertainty and capitalizing on opportunities.
IG:CFDGOLDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Captain Vincent | Observing JPY & USD - Buy remains dominant - 🟡 XAU/USD – GOLD 08/09 Observing JPY & USD | Buy remains dominant 🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context This morning, no new major updates. Tonight’s US session (08/09) will also not release any significant data. The latest market impact came from Japanese PM S. Ishiba’s resignation , which pressured JPY lower and slightly lifted the Dollar. However, Gold only made a small correction and held steady. ➡️ Captain’s Summary: Dollar and JPY now have only indirect influence, not enough to push Gold into deep declines. The main trend remains supported for further upside. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis Captain’s Shield (Main Support) : Golden Harbor OB: 3542 – 3549 Main Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 Liquidity Dock: 3573 – 3575 Storm Breaker (Resistance) : Quick Boarding: 3602 – 3604 (Short-term Sell scalp) Storm Breaker Peak: 3632 – 3634 (Sell zone – potential new ATH) ⏩ Price structure still maintains a bullish trend (continuous BOS ). Corrections mainly serve to attract liquidity before breaking into higher resistance zones. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority) Buy Zone: 3549 – 3551 | SL: 3542 | TP: 3553 → 3557 → 3560 → 3563 → 35xx Liquidity Dock : 3573 – 3575 | SL: 3565 | TP: 3578 → 3581 → 3583 → 35xx ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Short-term) Entry: 3602 – 3604 SL: 3610 TP: 3600 → 3597 → 3594 → 3591 → 3588 → 35xx 🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – New ATH) Entry: 3632 – 3634 SL: 3640 TP: 3629 → 3625 → 3623 → 3619 → 361x ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden ship stays steady as the seas remain calm this morning, with no major news waves. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3549 – 3551) along with OB around 3542 is a safe haven for sailors following the bullish tide. Liquidity Dock ⚓ (3573 – 3575) is only a temporary anchor point before bullish winds carry the ship further. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3602 – 3604) is for those seeking short-term waves. And if the ship reaches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3632 – 3634) , that could mark a new peak – but the greater journey is still northward with the bullish sails filled with wind.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Expect price from 3,590 to correct down to around 3,5201. Price Structure Previous trend: Gold has been in a strong uptrend since late August, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, price has reached the upper channel resistance (red trendline) and is showing a small double-top pattern, signaling potential weakness. 2. Fibonacci & Support Levels Fibonacci retracement drawn from 3,268 → 3,590. Key levels: 0.786 = 3,510 (aligned with lower trendline → strong support). 0.618 = 3,460 → medium-term support. 0.382 = 3,380 → if broken, short-term bullish structure weakens. 3. Patterns & Technical Signals The chart indicates a blue arrow: expectation of a pullback from 3,590 toward around 3,520 (grey trendline + 0.786 Fibo). If price holds above 3,510 → potential rebound to continue the uptrend. If 3,510 breaks → deeper correction likely toward 3,460 – 3,420. 4. Trading Scenarios Scenario 1 (preferred): Short-term sell from 3,590 → 3,520. TP: 3,520 – 3,510, SL above 3,600. Scenario 2: If 3,510 – 3,520 holds strong → consider long entries in line with the main trend. TP: 3,590 → 3,620, SL below 3,490. 👉 Summary: Gold is showing short-term weakness after a sharp rally, likely to correct toward 3,510 – 3,520 before the next move becomes clearer.
TVC:GOLD
by AstronautPioneer
GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on GBPUSD? After rejecting a  resistance area, GBP/USD has entered a corrective phase and is now approaching a high-confluence support zone, where multiple technical elements align Price is expected to show bullish reaction within the support zone after some short-term consolidation. Holding above this area could trigger a new impulsive wave toward previous resistance levels As long as price stays above the support, the bullish bias remains valid. A break and close below 1.31300 would invalidate the bullish setup, potentially opening the door for a deeper correction. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
21
Sell on breakdown below 3,510, targeting 3,460 – 3,423.GOLD Chart Analysis (H4 timeframe) Price is in a strong uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, it has reached the resistance zone around 3,575 – 3,580 and is showing signs of correction. The chart shows an ascending channel (two red trendlines). Price is forming a Rising Wedge, which often signals a potential reversal. The blue arrows indicate a possible pullback scenario: price may retest the lower trendline. Fibonacci levels are drawn from the recent low to the 3,578 high: 0.786 ~ 3,512 (price is testing this level now), 0.618 ~ 3,460 (strong support if price breaks lower), 0.5 ~ 3,423 (key balance zone), and 0.382 ~ 3,387 (lower support). If the price breaks below the current trendline support (around 3,510 – 3,520), it may correct deeper toward 3,460 or even 3,423. Scenario 1 (Bullish continuation): If price holds above 3,510 – 3,520 trendline → bounce back toward 3,575 – 3,580, possibly breaking higher. Scenario 2 (Deeper correction): If price falls below 3,510 → potential drop toward 3,460 and then 3,423 (Fibo 0.5). The Rising Wedge pattern typically favors a downside breakout, so risk management is important. The 3,575 – 3,580 zone is a strong short-term resistance. Possible setups: Short-term Buy around 3,510 – 3,520 with stop-loss below 3,500, or Sell on breakdown below 3,510, targeting 3,460 – 3,423. 👉 Summary: Gold is at the end of a strong bullish leg and stalling near heavy resistance. Watch the 3,510 – 3,520 support closely. A breakdown could trigger a correction toward 3,460 – 3,423.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AstronautPioneer
GBPUSD MARKET KEY RESISTANCE READ CAPTIONhi trader's GBPUSD Price is currently trading between the resistance zones (1.34473 – 1.35522) and the demand zone (1.32676). If price fails to break resistance, it may retrace back toward the demand zone. A breakout above resistance could open the way for bullish continuation. This shows the market is in a range-bound structure, where both buyers and sellers are active For more live forex setups and daily chart analysis, follow my profile to stay updated
Short
by haleh120
What Is the ARIMA Prediction Model?What Is the ARIMA Prediction Model? ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) is a statistical model used to analyse time series data, making it a popular tool in financial markets. Traders apply ARIMA to assess historical price trends and identify structured patterns in market movements. This article explains how ARIMA works, its strengths and limitations, and how it can be integrated into trading strategies for a deeper analysis of price behaviour across different assets. Understanding ARIMA ARIMA stands for autoregressive integrated moving average, a widely used model for analysing time series data. It’s particularly useful in financial markets because it helps traders break down price movements into patterns based on historical data. To understand how ARIMA works, it’s important to look at its three components: - Autoregressive (AR): This part captures the relationship between a current value and its past values. For example, if the price of an asset today is influenced by its price over the last few days, that’s an autoregressive process. - Integrated (I): Many financial time series exhibit trends, making them non-stationary (meaning their statistical properties change over time). ARIMA “integrates” the data by differencing it—subtracting past values from current ones—to make it more stable for analysis. - Moving Average (MA): Instead of focusing on past prices, this component looks at past errors—how much previous values deviated from expected trends—to refine the analysis. Each ARIMA model is defined by three parameters: p (AR order), d (number of differences), and q (MA order). Selecting these values requires statistical tests, autocorrelation analysis, and model evaluation methods like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In practice, ARIMA modelling is often used in trading to analyse historical price trends and identify repeating patterns. How ARIMA Works in Market Analysis Applying ARIMA to financial markets involves a structured process that helps traders analyse price movements based on historical patterns. Since markets generate continuous time series data—such as stock prices, forex rates, and commodity values—ARIMA can be used to extract meaningful trends from past performance. However, applying ARIMA to a time series isn’t done blindly; there are key steps analysts follow to try to improve its effectiveness. 1. Checking for Stationarity Most raw financial data isn’t stationary—it often trends upwards or downwards over time. ARIMA requires stationarity, meaning that statistical properties like mean and variance remain constant. Traders test for this using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. If the data is non-stationary, differencing (subtracting previous values from current values) is applied until stationarity is achieved. 2. Identifying AR and MA Components Once the data is stationary, traders determine how much past price data (AR) and past errors (MA) influence current values. This is done using Autocorrelation Functions (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Functions (PACF): - ACF measures how strongly past values are correlated with present values. - PACF isolates the direct relationship between a value and its past lags, ignoring indirect effects. These tools help traders estimate the AR (p) and MA (q) components of the model. 3. Selecting the Right Parameters Choosing the right values is crucial, and traders often rely on criteria like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to compare different model variations and select the best fit. 4. Applying ARIMA to Market Data Once the parameters are set, the ARIMA model is trained on historical price data. It analyses past relationships between price movements, smoothing out noise and detecting underlying trends. While traders can use ARIMA forecasting to assess potential market direction, it is usually combined with volatility analysis, technical indicators, and macroeconomic factors to provide a more complete picture of market conditions. Applying ARIMA to Trading Strategies Traders use ARIMA to analyse historical price data and assess potential trends. Moreover, it’s often combined with technical indicators and other market factors to refine trading strategies. The key is understanding where ARIMA fits in the bigger picture of market analysis. 1. Identifying Trend Continuations and Reversals ARIMA helps traders assess whether an asset’s price movement follows a structured pattern over time. By analysing past relationships between prices, the model provides insights into whether an upward or downward trend has statistical momentum or if recent price action is deviating from historical patterns. For example, a trader analysing a currency pair might use ARIMA to assess whether the recent upward trend aligns with historical movements or if past patterns suggest a shift in direction. While ARIMA doesn’t account for sudden market shocks, it can potentially highlight whether recent price action aligns with established statistical trends. 2. Evaluating Market Volatility Price trends alone don’t tell the full story—volatility plays a major role in how assets move. Traders sometimes apply ARIMA to historical volatility data to assess how price swings have evolved over time. This can be useful when comparing different assets or assessing how external events impact volatility patterns. For instance, if ARIMA analysis suggests that a stock’s volatility has been steadily increasing over several weeks, traders may adjust their position sizing or incorporate additional risk control. 3. Combining ARIMA with Technical Indicators Historical price relationships are the primary focus with ARIMA, meaning traders often pair it with moving averages, Relative Strength Index, or Bollinger Bands to refine their analysis. If ARIMA suggests a continuation of a trend and this aligns with a moving average crossover or RSI strength, it can add confidence to a trading decision. Institutional traders and hedge funds use ARIMA in systematic trading models, often integrating it with machine learning or fundamental data. While traders may not rely on ARIMA as their primary tool, incorporating it into a broader strategy may help assess market structure, historical price relationships, and potential trend shifts, especially when used alongside other forms of analysis. Strengths and Limitations of ARIMA Models in Trading Although ARIMA is widely used in financial market analysis, like any analytical tool, it has strengths and limitations that traders should be aware of. Strengths of ARIMA in Trading Captures Historical Relationships Well ARIMA is particularly popular at analysing price trends that follow consistent patterns over time. If an asset’s price movements show a clear relationship with its past values, ARIMA can help quantify these patterns and provide a structured analysis of potential market direction. Useful for Short- to Medium-Term Analysis While some statistical models focus on high-frequency data or long-term macro trends, ARIMA sits comfortably in the middle. It works well for daily, weekly, or monthly price analysis, making it useful for traders who look at trends over these timeframes. Well-Established and Interpretable Unlike complex machine learning models, an ARIMA forecast is straightforward in its assumptions. Traders can understand why a model is generating certain outputs, as ARIMA is based on clear mathematical relationships rather than black-box algorithms. Applicable to Different Market Data ARIMA isn’t restricted to just price movements—it can be used to analyse volatility, trading volume, and macroeconomic indicators, making it a flexible tool for different types of market assessments. Limitations of ARIMA in Trading Assumes Linear Relationships ARIMA is used when price movements follow a linear structure, meaning past values have a direct and proportional effect on future movements. However, markets often experience sharp reversals, liquidity shocks, and external events that don’t fit neatly into this assumption. Requires Stationarity Many financial assets exhibit non-stationary behaviour—meaning their statistical properties change over time. ARIMA requires differencing to adjust for trends, but in some cases, even after differencing, the data still doesn’t meet stationarity requirements. Computationally Intensive for Large Datasets While ARIMA is widely used in trading, its calculations become more demanding as the dataset grows. For traders dealing with high-frequency or multi-asset strategies, ARIMA may require significant computational resources, making alternative models like machine learning-based approaches more practical. The Bottom Line ARIMA is a valuable tool for analysing historical price trends and assessing potential market movements. While it has limitations, traders often use it alongside technical indicators and volatility analysis to refine their strategies. FAQ What Is an ARIMA Model? ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) is a statistical model used to analyse time series data. It identifies patterns in historical values using three components: autoregression (AR), differencing (I) to make data stationary, and moving averages (MA). Traders apply ARIMA to assess market trends based on past price movements. Is ARIMA Still Used in Market Analysis? Yes, ARIMA remains widely used in financial and economic analysis. While newer machine learning models have gained popularity, ARIMA is still valuable for structured time series data, particularly in short- to medium-term market analysis. What Is the Most Popular ARIMA Model? There is no single most popular ARIMA model—it all depends on the dataset. The model is selected based on statistical criteria like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), which helps determine the optimal combination of AR, I, and MA components. How to Determine P, D, and Q in an ARIMA Model? The ARIMA p, d, and q values are determined through statistical tests. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test checks for stationarity (d), while autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions help identify p (AR terms) and q (MA terms). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
My Personal Forex Money Management System-The 4 Rules I Live ByLet's talk about something more important than any indicator: money management. I don't care how good my strategy is; without a solid system to manage risk, I am just gambling. I've been documenting my own trading journey and wanted to share the exact four-pillar framework I use to protect my capital. This isn't theory—it's what I actually follow on every single trade. The 4 Components of My System: Risk Per Trade: The fixed % of my account I'm willing to lose on one idea is, for now, between 0.5% and 1%. Total Open Risk: My cap on total exposure from all running trades, I prefer a max of 3% but giving myself the space to a maximum of 6%. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: My non-negotiable minimum filter for every setup is the golden 1:2. To tell you the truth, now when I see a trade that forces me to 1:2, I get annoyed. The trading plan that I am working on now gives me greater opportunities. Therefore, 1:2 is really my bare minimum. Dynamic Position Sizing: How I calculate my lot size based on my stop loss. My goal is to stay in the game as much as possible and work on the accumulation effect. This system is so simple and practical that it keeps me disciplined and stops me from blowing up an account on one bad trade or a volatile news event. I'm curious—what's the #1 rule in your money management system? Drop a comment below. Let's learn from each other.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
Falling towards pullback support?EUR/GBP is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a swing high resistance. Pivot: 0.8667 1st Support: 0.86204 1st Resistance: 0.8738 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Market Analysis: USD/CAD Faces Fresh DeclineMarket Analysis: USD/CAD Faces Fresh Decline USD/CAD declined and is now consolidating losses below 1.3800. Important Takeaways for USD/CAD Analysis Today - USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above 1.3900. - There is a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3755 on the hourly chart. USD/CAD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/CAD, the pair climbed toward 1.3900 before the bears appeared. It formed a swing high near 1.3867 and recently declined below 1.3800. There was also a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3785. The bulls are now active near 1.3720. If there is an upside correction, the pair could face resistance near 1.3755 and a connecting bearish trend line. The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3867 swing high to the 1.3718 low. If there is an upside break above the trend line, the pair could rise toward the 1.3785 pivot level. The next key hurdle on the USD/CAD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.3810. If there is an upside break above 1.3810, the pair could rise toward 1.3865. The next major sell zone is 1.3930, above which it could rise steadily toward the 1.4000 handle. Immediate support is near the 1.3720 level. The first major support could be 1.3700. A close below the 1.3700 level might trigger a strong decline. In the stated case, USD/CAD might test 1.3600. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a drop toward 1.3500. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Bulls in ControlMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Bulls in Control GBP/USD started a fresh increase above 1.3500. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today - The British Pound is eyeing more gains above 1.3500. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3530 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. GBP/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of GBP/USD, the pair formed a base above the 1.3390 level. The British Pound started a steady increase above 1.3440 against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis. The pair gained strength above 1.3465 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It even cleared the 1.3500 handle and tested 1.3530. It is now consolidating gains below 1.3530. The pair is stable above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3446 swing low to the 1.3529 high. It seems like the bulls might aim for more gains. The RSI moved above the 50 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair could soon aim for an upside break above a key bearish trend line at 1.3530. An upside break above 1.3530 could send the pair toward 1.3545. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.3620. If there is a downside correction, immediate support is near the 1.3500 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major support could be near the 50% Fib retracement at 1.3485. The next pivot level sits near 1.3445. If there is a break below 1.3445, the pair could extend the decline. In the stated case, it could drop and test 1.3420. Any more losses might call for a move toward 1.3390. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
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NZDUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal at 61.8% Fib ResistanceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the sell entry, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to the take profit. Entry is at 0.5920, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 0.5983, which acts as a swing high resistance. Take profit is at 0.5866, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
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by Tradu