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BOUNCE TO 98-100KMorning folks, Last time we explained in details the fundamental background, so BTC remains bearish. But now it stands at weekly oversold and around 95K Daily support area. This creates friendly background for tactical bounce. On 4H chart we have DiNapoli DRPO "Buy" pattern, that suggests upside bounce to 98-100K area at least. That's being said, don't take any new shorts right now - wait for the pullback. For bullish intraday position, you could try to use this DRPO pattern. Don't place too far stop, just under lows should be enough, but be aware of NFP volatility today...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
BTC 95K is DONE. WATCHING FOR 100K BounceMorning folks, So, our plan worked perfect, BTC collapsed as we suggested. Now price is at oversold as on daily as on weekly TF and at support. So, it is reasonable to expect a tactical bounce, somewhere back to 100K. And it could start from a kind of reverse H&S on 1H Chart . If it starts at all... But it is not interesting... today we probably can't escape some fundamental analysis. I don't believe in occasional coincidence of stock market collapse right at the eve of Thanksgiving and Xmas and appearing of Epstein compromat on D. Trump. Meantime Donny is loosing all his allies - Musk, Carlson, Now M. Taylor Greene. I wouldn't worry too much, if I would not see a big bearish signs on BTC, suggesting drop to 80K and even 50K in perspective. As you understand, this could happen only in a case of total collapse on stock market. Buckle up and be prepared. No longs by far. Wait for mentioned pullback to consider a new shorts. Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
#BTC 95-96K 3-DRIVE IS NOT EXCLUDEDMorning folks, So, as we suggested BTC has shown healthy downside action out from 106K resistance area. Despite good news around shutdown, BTC shows limited reaction. Even more, I would say that 3-Drive pattern on daily chart is not excluded, down to 94-96K area. This pattern fits well to idea of weekly H&S pattern ... On 4H in a few hours we could get a bearish grabber as well . So, I wouldn't be too fast on long entry right now and prefer to wait for confirmation. It might be upside breakout of 108K area at least, just to erase all "bearish suspicions" around... For short entry, if you want - try to catch the grabber or take position as close to 108K local top (and 2nd Drive top) as possible. This is invalidation point for bearish scenario. Take care. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
WATCHING FOR CLOSE PRICE TODAYMorning folks, So, pullback to 106K area has happened rather accurately. D. Trump once again has made a verbal intervention with promise of 2K and shutdown end, but this is too early to believe. As usual no one D. Trump promise has made a long lasted effect. All of them were reversed in a few days. No Supreme Court decision yet on tariffs, now it is appeared that it will be not a 2K in cash but just tax adjustment, shutdown is still lasting and liquidity issues remain. So, I would say - it is too early to celebrate. Meantime, on technical side we have clear signals. First is, if market will close today under 105.5K - we get daily bearish grabber. As you can see on 4H chart - it will appear right around strong resistance area. So, it might happen, that we will have to go short instead as market could drop again under 100K area... Thus don't relax and don't believe in this suspicious euphoria, everything could change in a blink of an eye. Still, upward action above 108K could confirm the bullish sentiment.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC - CHANCES ON COLLAPSE ARE RAISINGMorning folks, So, BTC has failed to start upside action as with our 4H H&S as with 30-min H&S that we mentioned last time as a tool for long entry. The last one actually has not been formed at all. So, no entry signal followed. Now, based on 4H picture, nominally we still could believe that H&S will survive and BTC still will reverse up. We do not argue, but... this might happen only by some external driver. It will be some wild card scenario, but we can't make a bet on it. Technical picture looks weak, and suggests price return back to 105K lows. To return back to bullish view we need to get upside jump and confirmation of validity of this H&S pattern. In this case bullish scenario will be possible. Now we prefer to stay aside from any bullish trades.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC - BACK TO H&S PATTERN AND 110.3-111.50K Morning folks, In last two weeks we prefer to stay aside as market was forming contradictive signals, although we have a theory of mid term price shape. In a recent few sessions BTC starts looking more bullish, cancelled potential 3-Drive scenario and is returning back to the shape of H&S pattern. Now price is completing AB=CD target and comes to 5/8 Fib resistance level, which is also the neckline of the pattern. Thus, if everything will go with the plan, 110.3-111.5K seems the first area where there right arm might be formed. So let's keep looking over it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3-DRIVE INSTEAD OF H&S WITH 101-102K TARGETMorning folks, Last time we acknowledged some BTC efforts to reverse up, but decided to wait for more confirmation and more confidence. So, this bet seems is failing. Because fast jump was immediately reversed, and this is not the type of action that you expect from bullish market that supposedly is forming the H&S pattern... It leads us to suggestion of 3-Drive "Buy" instead, with potential target around 101-102K area. At least now we prefer to stay aside from any bullish positions here.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC IS WEAK BUT NO CLEAR TRADING SETUPSMorning folks, So, today is a specific update. We do not see any clear trading setups for now. But here are a few thoughts. First is - BTC has failed to completed an AB=CD target, dropped down. This is the sign of weakness. And it is not surprising. Sentiment on the market has dropped under the floor. Recent events clearly showed that BTC is non-regulated and highly manipulated market by politicians (Hello DonnY) and his insiders. Second - military rhetoric in media has increased in multiple times. Demand for safe haven is raising, which is pressing on BTC. Finally, US liquidity issues are not disappeared. All these three factors make us suggest further BTC fall. Now price stands in triangle, with no bright patterns, suitable for position taking. That's why we prefer to wait a bit.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC 117.70K determines the next stepMorning folks, So, old Donny has put dirt to everybody... of course we were watching for the drop, as we discussed it on Thu, but it should had to be just a pullback. Obviously we got no entry signal on Friday collapse. Now there are a few interesting patterns are forming monthly/weekly charts, but it is a different story. Here we suggest to give market some time to calm down. In fact, daily price shape is very similar to huge Bearish engulfing pattern. So, we do not exclude some downside continuation if BTC holds below 170.70K resistance area. In fact, this is the key to the next step. Upside breakout of this area will erased the whole Friday's collapse, and mostly will be bullish... But right now we do not consider any trades.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC LAST 3-DRIVE EFFORT TO 127-128K TARGETMorning folks, So, we're done with 2-3 weeks journey of reverse H&S patterns as BTC has hit our 126K target. Unfortunately we haven't got another chance to enter on last Thu, as we hoped, but now it is done already... Since we have all-time BTC AB=CD target around 127.10K, we suggest that price could try to make a last upside effort via 3-Drive pattern to complete it. Thus, if you have longs, you could try to hold them until target will be met. In fact, if you want to could initialize a new intraday setup, with tight stop, somewhere below 122K area. We consider no shorts by far. Situation slowly is preparing for the pullback, but not yet. Major target have to be done first.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
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Next Upside BTC target is 126-127.30K. Beware of OverboughtMorning folks, So BTC not has just formed big H&S but already completed it. But it is not a reason for upset. We consider 126-127.30K as the next upside target, based on weekly butterfly scenario . Still, due to very fast action market hits overbought on daily chart. We prefer to wait for tactical pullback, somewhere to 117K or or even 115.3K support levels before thinking about long entry. I mark this idea as" bearish" because of retracement expectations, but overall context is bullish of course...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
114-114K is a Key Level for BTC directionMorning folks, So, BTC indeed dropped as we suggested. It was not a surprise with so tight liquidity situation in the US... Now, BTC keeps door open to both scenarios with some adv. on bearish side. But this adv. is not total. Since our H&S pattern in a process of failure, it is logical to suggest [b ]potential Butterfly on daily chart At the same, on 1H chart we can see that BTC is forming reverse H&S pattern. By itself, it is not a problem for daily butterfly, this H&S might become a part of it. But, it could become the part of weekly opposite butterfly either. So, everything depends on 114-114.5K area which is a neckline. Upside breakout increases bullish chances. What we're going to do? Obviously - try to take a long position with H&S. No matter, will it get minor target or become a reversal pattern - anyway it has to be considered. And we also will be keep an eye on its failure. This is also important and gives us a confidence with downside continuation. Probably to the next update on Thu, we should get the clarity over this pattern. Right now we prefer to sit on the hands.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC H&S COULD FAIL. THINK ABOUT STOP "SELL" $110.3K ORDERMorning folks, We're keep watching over big reverse H&S pattern here. Last time we warned about USD liquidity issues, this is actually why BTC collapsed down to 111K support. And idea was to not buy just at the level, but watch for confirmation in a way of some bullish patterns. Now I do not see any. Widening triangle makes me think that downside action could have even more chances than reversal. That's why, we think about using of Stop "Sell" entry order around 110.3-110.5K area for position taking if downside breakout will happen. This is comfortable, because if still upside action starts - this order remains unfilled. As we do not see yet any signs of reversal, we do not consider long entry. Let's see, maybe something will change on Monday. But today I keep "bearish" mark for this idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC H&S IN PROGRESS. WATCH FOR BULLISH SIGNS AROUND $111.3KMorning folks, So, everything has happened as we discussed last time. Minor H&S led us to the big one. And now price stands at the point, where it has to either start working or to fail. And for any trader, who would like to trade this pattern, it is a decision making moment. Thus, drop your time frame to 15 min chart and watch for market reaction around 111.3K support. If we get any bullish patterns there, then it is possible to try. Conversely, if H&S will fail - BTC probably will drop down to 100K area. Unfortunately currently I can't exactly tell whether this H&S will work or not, just because price has touched support level a few minutes ago. It needs time to show a reaction. Although fast drop is not good for bullish reversal pattern, but it not always leads to failure. I mark this idea as "bullish" but with some advance and mostly due to its nature. For position taking we still need clear patterns on lower time frames.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
BE AWARE OF 111K BTC RETRACEMENT IF LARGER H&S STARTS FORMINGMorning folks, So, our 116.15K target is perfectly met. What's next? First is, some quiet time should be until the Fed meeting. As market hits upside AB=CD, forming daily "222" Sell around resistance area, it is reasonable to suggest a pullback. Normally, (before BTC proceeds to 119K target here) is to expect the pullback to nearest two levels - 114+K and 112.60-113.17K K-area as it is shown on 1H chart. But, we also do not exclude scenario of a bigger reverse H&S So, if you will see that market is dropping further - keep an eye on 111K support. This is the last bullish outpost for short-term tendency. Drop to 111K doesn't mean yet that the upside game is over. So, let's watch first for most common scenario of retracement, but also keep in mind 111K level. We do not consider any bearish trades for now and watch for deeps to buy. I mark this idea as "bearish" just because of expected retracement. In general we have a bullish view.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
116.15K is the next BTC TARGETMorning folks, So, after two solid pullbacks out of 113.5K resistance area, BTC is decided to break it on a background of 50bp cut from the Fed next week. So, both Thu setups has worked nice. You either hold longs or out at breakeven with shorts that we have taken last week... Anyway, we consider 116.15K as the most probable target for now, because price shape doesn't show signs of acceleration and looks more like AB=CD pullback out from 105-108K support area. Thus, for short entry we prefer to wait when this target will be met. Long entry now theoretically could be possible, but we do not see good stop order placement that let us to turn probability in our favor. That's why, if you have longs - keep it, but price possession is not perfect for a new one, especially at the eve of CPI release...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
BTC "SELL @ 113.5K@ Part IIMorning folks, So, everything goes just perfect. Sell around 113.5K resistance is done well. If you're in, move stops to breakeven. Now we need just to watch whether 2nd part of our plan will come true or not. If you remember, we suggest the failure of reverse H&S pattern here and drop below 107K lows. So we keep the bearish context for this setup for now. Still, on the right arm's bottom you can see small reverse H&S pattern. If you have an opposite view, or just want to make a scalp trade - it could be useful for this purpose: Take care S.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Counter-Pattern BTC Idea. Sell @ 113.5KMorning folks, So, our plan stands in progress, everything is fine, while market is moving with 3-Drive pattern to the upside. It's time to decide what to do next. BTC will remain under pressure until the mid September, due to big Treasury borrowings. At the same time we see that it is forming reverse H&S pattern, which is potentially bullish. Our idea is to go against it with the most safe way and Sell at the neckline and K-resistance area of 113.5K level. Because we think that this H&S has more chances to fail rather than to work properly. But, anyway, if even it will work as it should, the right arm deep should let us to move stops to breakeven. So, we think that this trade scenario cares not much risk
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten