Morning everybody, We have hoped that BTC completes 25K butterfly on daily chart, but it seems that situation turns different. Still, this is not vital, but technically it would be perfect, if this would happen. Anyway, as we expect that downside action continues on other assets, as we do on BTC. In nearest term we expect minor upside bounce (as on EUR, Gold as...
Morning folks, So, it seems that markets have heard only "disinflation" word from JP and missed everything else. We think that recent Fed comments were hawkish enough and euphoria will exhaust soon, when mispricing becomes obvious. Meantime nothing has changed in our mid term view - we're watching for reverse H&S on weekly chart and upside butterfly on daily...
Morning everybody, BTC now has no technical barriers for upward action to our major 25-25.5K destination point. Its not at overbought and has no Fib resistance levels ahead. Still, we have tough week with multi central banks decision, NFP and other stuff. And some external factor intruding could hurt bullish tendency. In nearest term, we think we have to keep...
Morning everybody, So, overall tendency and sentiment is positive on BTC market (although we're skeptic on major reversal idea due to fundamental reasons). Technically market should not have any big problems to reach 25.5K area - next solid resistance. But, there few moments that make it tricky. First is, as EUR as Gold now stand at strong resistance areas....
Morning guys, We have big doubts on long-term upside reversal due fundamental reasons. Meantime, short-term context is bullish. Now we consider 25.2-25.9K resistance as nearest destination point. 22.22K and 21.30-21.50K supports could be considered for position taking. Be aware of statistics this week- Durable orders, GDP, PCE.
Morning folks, So, BTC rally has been triggered by FTX news, that they have recovered $5Bln for clients and later was supported by common euphoria around CPI numbers. In our weekly FX report we've explained why it is temporal and soon everything returns back to its own. But, market likes to follow wishful thinking. Anyway, we have bullish context. Last time...
Morning guys, Last time we've postponed bearish position taking as market strongly has passed through 1704-17080 resistance area and we've agree to watch for next upside target around 17.6K. Additionally we've said, that with stronger upside performance we could have to increase the scale and take a look at larger AB-CD pattern on daily chart. Now the time has...
Morning folks, As you could see BTC has reached the level that we've discussed last week - 17040-17080 resistance, and did it relatively easy. Since we consider upside continuation on other markets as well - EUR, Gold, on BTC we also postpone bearish scenario and now do not consider entry. Price stands above the K-resistance area and above OP target that we've...
Morning folks, Just minor update here, as picture mostly stands the same as on Monday. Last time we said that if BTC will be lucky enough and could show upside AB-CD pattern - it might be good combination for short entry. Upside AB-CD target perfectly agrees with strong 17040-17080 resistance area and also we get "222" Sell in this case. BTC despite all the...
Morning everybody, So, we could see across the board that markets are going against the dollar, at least in short-term. While Dollar Index shows signs of weakness. We do not suggest that this lasts for too long, but still, this action is not over yet, and our analysis as of EUR as of Gold market also suggests further upside continuation. Meantime, BTC has no...
Morning everybody, So, market is so weak that was not able to show even minor 0.618 AB-CD action back to 17-17.10K resistance area that we've discussed last time. Now we're getting more and more bearish signs on FX market, DXY. Thus, it seems that BTC will take out daily 16.27K lows very soon. Despite that we have here "222" Buy pattern - we do not consider...
Morning everybody and Merry Christmas, So, holidays intrude a bit to BTC performance as well, delaying pattern's appearing that we've discussed last time. When activity returns, BTC could keep going to 17.35-17.4K target and area of the right arm's top of our 4H H&S pattern. But, at the same time, we think that bulls have to worry about 17045-17080 area, which...
Morning folks, Everything were going with our trading plan, but unexpected collapse on Japanese Bonds market and BoJ rate action to 0.5% has changed normal price behavior. Still, we treat it as temporal intruding, and soon effect of this event should fade. Thus, current action we treat as a chance to Sell at better price. Particularly speaking, 17.40-17.50K...
Morning folks, So, downside action was even sharper than we thought, BTC collapsed without any H&S shape. Now it stands at local support area. We do not consider any long positions by far. For short entry 17.15-17.25 K-resistance area (and former trend line) looks interesting. Alternatively, if, still, it will be the H&S of a bit larger scale, BTC could climb...
Good morning, So, the bullish "Wild card" discussed last time has worked and BTC has completed 17.8-18.2K targets that we've discussed. Does it change something? No. Overall context remains bearish. Recent Fed statement, although has matched to expectations but still was slightly hawkish as just two members voted for the terminal rate below 5%. Market now stands...
Morning folks, Well, technical picture, no doubts, stands bearish. We've warned you about it within recent few weeks, and since the beginning of 2022 in a scale of monthly and weekly time frames. Now, if we wouldn't have CPI and Fed I would call for short entry. But, due coming important data we need to wait and get more confirmation. At the same time, CPI and...
Morning folks, BTC looks weak. Maybe coming PPI numbers tomorrow and CPI + Fed on Tue could support market in short-term, but data release can't change the fundamental background that is vitally hurt by FTX tragedy. Confidence in crypto market is lost now. Speaking about our technical setup - market has failed to stay above 17060 level that was crucial for the...
Morning folks, So, let's keep going with our reverse H&S and its targets. As we've said, the first one was hit last week. Once OP is done, BTC has formed minor triangle consolidation which is broken up now. Next H&S target is XOP around 18.15K. But the problem is 17.5-17.7K strong resistance area, that includes Fib level and previous daily lows. As you know...