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GBP/AUD - Triangle Breakout (08.09.2025)The GBP/AUD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2.0493 2nd Support – 2.0457 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
CBDCs, Cryptocurrency, & the coming Redenomination RevolutionDisclaimer: this is not financial advice - this is strictly speculation and scenario planning, and totally not drawn on privileged information from powerful people. Please consume responsibly. Let's set aside memecoins, rugpulls, and corpo coin acquisitions to focus on what actually matters: macro. I'm married to the money, so I follow macro wherever it goes. And it's going into CBDCs and cryptocurrency. You could say it started in the past 12 mos with the GENIUS bill, tariffs, BRICS' concept coins, etc but the truth is more devious than that. The macro perspective is much more than the flow of money, its the sentiment and interest of policy makers, national actors, and IGOs. In other words, groups that make money through passive taxation create macro conditions to control or create outcomes that influence how you make or spend money. They are interested in strategic payoff over cashing out. This means the way they look at crypto is different than retail and investors. As groups, you seek legitimacy for a profit payoff, they seek strategy for a power payoff. Fiat currency is not some platonic ideal willed into being by the laws of nature, it's entirely an instrument of the national interest. In other words, it exists only so long as policymakers find it strategically useful. So let's look at their strategy. For almost three years now, your world leaders and central bankers have been preparing for a reserve currency transition scenario. They've made sudden pivots to programmable currency R&D, they've been hoarding gold into CBs and taking extra steps to keep it quiet, they've been making strange comments about fantastical banking crisis scenarios, adjusting payment options for hydrocarbons (the USD is an international soft-peg), signaling the desired end of the dollar reserve (or oddly making protecting the dollar reserve part of their political platform), and building cross-border systems (BRICBridge/mBridge) to facilitate non-SWIFT or SWIFT legacy exchange/insurance/settlement capabilities. Certain essential economic entities in the West have been prepped as well but are not yet in position to disclose. Meanwhile, Ray Dalio is already identifying our monetary order as the primary vulnerability. He's not the only old rich person to notice. Buffet is done with markets by EOY. You could say that value investing is retiring. Contrary to popular opinion, this reserve currency transition will not take place as an Orwellian CBDC takeover or some BTC moon shot, but will instead be pitched as a redenomination opportunity - likely while GSIC banks are closed to customers (including ATM withdrawals and transfers and social payments or welfare services). Before I get into the why this will happen, let's briefly look at the fragility of the modern monetary system under fiat. If you think of the economic macrosystem as a living body, then you can understand, especially from recent memory, how a global infection could quickly bring just about everything to a halt. The lifeforce of the economic-being is the free-flow of USD. Powell has sufficiently proven this. In fact, you could almost argue the last 5 years have been the perfect demonstration of this gameplay loop. But you can't mistake the heart for the entire circulatory system. Liquidity is a digital dependency today. If the power goes out, there is no liquidity. If Window's crashes, there is no liquidity. If Crowdstrike gets hacked, liquidity is grounded (and air travel canceled). Liquidity is a luxury. It has been a luxury for all of human history. Only in times of conventional peace and American-led globalization have people begun to delude themselves otherwise. It will not work they way most think in tough times. Especially in our just-in-time widget meets server-based-bookkeeping era. The boardgame of money has never been flatter or more fragile. In an age of infinite KYC and a Bigger Brother, a major ATM corralito will not look like your Great-Grandfather's breadlines. Accounts will be electronically frozen (thus no withdrawals or personal payments) and social payments will be halted for several days or even up to several weeks (thus no welfare). Due to incredible complexity risk, capital controls will be applied like circuit breakers to shut everything down. This is how it will be done in major countries and how it has been done in small countries in recent years. M1 M2 M3 will be iced by natsec nitwits and placed under conservatorship. They will give you any and every excuse. Power outages, Russians, 4chan hackers, Iran, North Korea, Powell, Biden, a virus, weather, a disaster, Chyna, anything. They might even blame me. To be truly forward in global macro, having an understanding of financial securities is not enough. National securities are a necessary intersect. If the NYSE went down unexpectedly for a few days, it would in effect generate a "stroke" for the velocity of the USD. Only one link in the financial accounting chain needs to be halted to warrant shutting down the entire electronic transaction system. There is no fractal redundancy, so to speak - everything is connected and dependent on that largely centralized and live bookkeeping data feed, otherwise the whole body gets hospitalized. This is the great weakness of centralized finance and merchant services and I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir here. Only M0, select banking accounts (some community/credit & a chosen GSIC or two - IE, not Deutsch Bank), and alternative banking through cryptocurrency, will operate in that short window until your country's cartel sets a withdrawal rationing figure and initiates redemption options for the redenomination process. This process would likely involve the favorite GSIC (in the US) JP Morgan & the Post Office - giving national coverage to all area codes. You would convert your fiat, likely in cash and at a flat rate exchange that would be difficult for the layman to valuate, and receive the new notes. It could take several days to over a week before the rationing window is brought online. And even longer for the redemption system to be in place to convert federal notes to treasury notes (TL: CBDCs). These treasury notes will be backed by national assets - varying by nation, but always playing to their strengths. In the US, this means energy commodities, PMs, and the strategic crypto reserve and associated coins that service cross-border activity. The latter is the big money play, and has specifically been legalized through GENIUS to facilitate the merchant/business level transition when that occurs (the business-level redemption process will be aided by current crypto capability - which we will get in the DD section). I don't know if this board cares about PMs, but as a general standard, most nations that go through redenomination (a figure in the 100s) will opt to double or triple PM reserves (current standard is 20%), and will be interested in cross-border cryptocurrency (mBridge and/or crypto for BRICs, most of the G88, and potentially Eurozone). The reserve currency system under the US will come to an end at this point without any legal moves necessary to close the Federal Reserve. Initially, this will seem like a huge problem for the US alone. In reality, the opposite will be true. If you're a shoemaker in that pitiful collection of tourist destinations we call the EU, this is especially for you - because the fight over a national versus a continental currency solution could paralyze you all further. To wit, for the US and the world: it will likely mean the end of the housing market as a game of musical chairs, which will be the end of the global monetary system under its current paradigm for all major nations. Now I'm not trying to create fear and panic, even though that's the main thing this website does. No one will starve or get sent to the streets during a cash crash in a developed country in the contemporary era. The situation will start as a misunderstood market event. But there will be a Bretton-Woods tier recalibration at a national (likely international) level to follow shortly after. The "forum building" stage of this event has already begun. Tariffs are revealed to be part of broad but messy geopolitical strategy, the escalation of which will engage the monetary system itself (goods>ports>share listings>national bonds). You will see that sequence begin to play out in the months to come, especially after the Rio Reset dud and the Swiss paper metal tariff. Trump's "deals" with certain countries keep getting delayed or reneged. He will continue his holding pattern on this matter, switching between punitive and TACO to extend the tariff negotiation horizons. 1.Global Blocks The CCP are positioning to replace their dependency on the US-led Rules Based Order. When foreign policy suits and grey moustaches say 'RBO X' or 'US superpower Y', they mean reserve currency and maritime system dominance. It all comes down to coins and boats, as it always has. For our purposes, only the former is of interest (but buy all your high end electronics soon, because further tariff escalation will draw in shipping and port strategies - even if we freed up Panama beforehand). This isn't the right board for the investor note from hell, but all indications are a go for a reserve currency challenger framework to be officially announced Q4 or H1 of 2026. Most ongoing projects intend to connect commodities to currencies. This is necessary to build an alternative SDR. Certain nations and entities in the ME will be likely facilitators and front men for this framework (particularly to ease or lobby the G88). This is battlelines over bucks. Your favorite loose lips sink ships guy already came out rambling about it when he posted out of the blue about BRICs challenging the USD. I hope you all understand by now that when it wasn't a topic on Fox and Friends, then it's because he repeats what he is told in private. When China introduces a settlement CBDC (with Russian, various Eurasians + some MENA, and potentially Brazilian support), their international accounting will require reserves to be interchangeable with other CBDCs. These reserves will be similar to the Special Drawing Rights, but include commodities (particularly those favorable to the majority of partners; aka what they produce or already hold). This means more gold and possibly silver, to start (imagine going from 20% standard gold reserve holdings to 40/60 + 10 in silver). Later platinum, lithium, uranium, and other frontier tech minerals which will be increasingly valuable and likely included. Regardless, this transition will push Chinese investors (retail and institution) out of UST (even if the tariff threat has ended). It's not a reserve for them any more, it may even be illegal to hold UST over a certain amount. That could happen overnight. The inevitability of this sequence shouldn't be underestimated. Many of the big holders of US bonds, aka those with a stake in the ticker we call USD, are not friendly at best. Others are always looking for ways to hedge their risk. This is not the free-market as you understand it. It's being Eli Lilly but your biggest stakeholder is RFK Jr. You know that's not gonna last, right? For Europe, the reactive risk is closely related to disaster or conflict risk. Tariffs might be enough too. I'm leaning towards Germany or the UK accelerating the contagion for the broader continent. German manufacturing and energy are critically vulnerable. German PMI has been in effective contraction for 27 of the last 30 some months, and last year saw a record-breaking number of bankruptcies in the country. Both UK or Germany would handle an economic downturn poorly due to rising populist movements jumping on alternatives ( = national bond credit risk = currency vulnerability). The possibility of a second Brexit event following a commanding populist return is not priced in. Likewise, another pandemic or an expansion of Russia's war would lead to a tap out of EU economic unity. Annoyingly, the French and Germans are unlikely to search for an economic relief package of a conventional nature or one that is associated with American interests. In other words, they will be working with ME and Asia if the EU does not guarantee European continental harmony on a new Bretton-Woods framework (which I don't think they will). Japan also falls into the reactive risk category. The question is the cause package. They have no cushion and all it takes is a little shove. Yes they has a high savings rate, but purchasing power and their import dependencies (high-pop island country) negates any security they think that will provide. It's unlikely 3rd world exporters will keep the basic necessities flowing (think in terms of virtual water exports) for the next GFC or summer famine/disaster. 3rd world imports and access to cheap food underpins much of the shadow economy for Asia (see local news over rice cost) - so consumption would crash along with rising unemployment (uncaptured but real) - and the BOJ has no room to stop unemployment without sacrificing their national corporate champions (RIP Buffett) (and thus more unemployment in their zero-entrepreneurial environment). All of this is a pretzeled way of saying that conventional economic shocks could trigger the cash crash, or vice versa. Unconventional risk - like MENA cyberwar risks (who knows what blowback we might face after Iran), or even geophysical concerns like another "1000 year event" (happening every month now) but this time in a major financial area like Tokyo or SF (do you buy or sell disaster bonds in that scenario?). Suffice to say, the unconventional supporting fuel will be there. No one ever signals the big deflationary event to the greater public. But rest assured my fellow stallions, the leading signal flares for the USD are the health of the CNY, JPY & EUR. The rest is just conversation. As mentioned, the ensuing crash will be salvageable at a policy level, and thus not an inevitable depression, but only after the Bretton-Woods process comes to surface and settles, which could take most of 2026/27. This will be your golden crypto opportunity. 2.Opportunity DD Unlike the last global financial crisis, cryptocurrencies and blockchain tech are now an available solution for short term cash access and long term platform use. They are already a wedge in the US economy. People will vote with their wallets to protect their purchasing power by moving into liquidity (cryptocurrencies). Thus the demand for respective nations/regions to produce their own national digital currency to offset will rise. This isn't to say that physical coins (especially silver) won't be in a state of colossal demand (silver at 180 by 2029). But because most consumer and business transactions, debts, liabilities, taxes, etc still happen by digital bookkeeping, then cryptocurrencies (stablecoins in particular) will take priority until a national/international alternative is released. Which will come very quickly - likely by late summer of 2026. Crypto will remain bid as a trust arbitrage trade afterwards. I am providing this ahead of time, because a gradual buy in is the safest and most reasonable way to leave a mark on the market. TO OWN (in the interests of crypto): 1.PMs - physical ideally or by exposure to miners and mining ETFs. I have an 8,000$ price target for gold by 2029 (in 2025 dollars). I have 180$ price target for silver by 2029 (in 2025 dollars). Platinum = higher. I could go on and on about PMs. Decades ago I had a simple question: do prime mines sell gold and aggregates to government customers without reporting it? To answer that question, I am happy to report that I am still alive today. If you don't believe in internet magic money or virtual math money is too complicated, this asset is your first stop. It's a Golden Age. Take the hint. See KGC, GLD, GOLD & GDX. 2.Commodities - Lithium. Copper. Aggregates. Historically a great way to make money if you like buying Russian billionaires their yachts, creating nightmare company towns in central Africa, or funding "mining" companies that are fronts for the military industrial complex (MLM & MP = strong buy). 3.JVs - sophisticated only (which is a legal definition, not an aspiration). Not RE though (even utility related). All those watch-collecting power plant andy's on CNBC will make some money, but not as much as they think. 4.C-Word - WSB has the F-Word, Trump has the N-Word, and we have the C-Word. Again I'm preaching to the choir here, but it needs to be said anyway. As mentioned in the next section, there will be a valuation wild west period in which the shelf-stable stablecoins, other coins, and blockchain platforms will be used by developing countries and rich countries alike to fill in interoperability gaps and as a natural solution based on cost, availability, and immediacy for retail and small business needs. Only the most totalitarian countries, see Europe and China, will gatekeep over this. I strongly suggest buying and holding any digital currency currently settling it's legal hearings in the Southern District of New York. Or any digital coin holding company recently sued by the SEC (the Big Long will be the movie this time). And any that are based in the US via a foundation or corporation (IE, not BTC, which is owned and created by a British national), or start with letter X. Because {X} marks the spot, that's the DD. It is not a coincidence or accident the very first crypto Trump mentioned for the national crypto reserve was XRP - a coin he likely had never even heard off until hours before making that tweet. There was no BTC or ETH mentioned until spaces like this hurt themselves in confusion. Why? Because BTC was created by a British national who also owns a commanding share. ETH does not have the business or banking relationships or the payment efficiency edge - and again, founder residency (Russian/Canadian) and controlling organization (Swiss) are foreign. The XRP Ledger is strategically useful and the leading contender for cross-border activity. Cardano is of interest (and in relationship) to banks and governments around the world for tokenizing assets under the redenomination era. Virtually every traditional financial asset will be tokenized for legal, tax, and accounting purposes. That includes home and car ownership. Solana is a further potential where speed and cost matter most. Finally, though unmentioned by the tweet, XLM already has a CBDC use-case track record and should be considered as well. What else do XRP, ADA, SOL, and XLM have in common? American founders, with USA-based organizations. This isn't about jingoism, this is about strategy. You need to leave the history, anonymity, and grassroots community aspect behind for now. I agree that those attributes made crypto special in earlier eras, but it doesn't mean it will make you money in the redenomination era. It does not matter if your favorite Goonercoin has a better white paper or more airdrops. What matters is which coins are all-in on their chosen nations, and their efforts to generate relationships with banks, businesses, and governments associated with that respective nation. That is all that matters. You can rinse and repeat with your own countries, but I would focus on these aforementioned first, and then exchange to your local equivalent later. TO NOT OWN: 1.RE - will take the world's biggest beating when the EUR, USD, CNH, and JPY lose 30-40% of their value. The Reserve Recession event will be particularly painful for the elderly (pension+property) - thus adding to the pressure for CBDC solutions as a retirement welfare solution. In sum, the 30 year lending architecture will no longer exist. Many pensions will convert to digital currency systems. I wonder if that 401(k) inclusion recently has anything to do with this? 2.Sectors: all sectors except healthcare and industrials. Be wary of consumer staples and utilities, especially if you want to derisk your poorfolio from geopolitics. 3.Cash Accounts: don't be that guy who keeps 25k in his savings account. If you don't have a credit card, that's fine, but for everyone else, that money needs to be in physical assets, or intelligently invested. Remember, you aren't trading market volatility, you're hedging against monetary-systemic risk. 4.Other Currencies tied to the old monetary system - especially NIRPers. You could long the AUD/JPY, for instance, but don't own either via futures or ETFs (IE: FXE, FXY, etc - not even as a short). 5.Inflated Assets: in general, anything boosted by cost of money engineering (the modern monetary system function) will deflate. Lots of discretionary goods, luxury, travel, etc (Veblen goods). Investor Note: Do not expect cash to disappear. Those that engage in these cash crash predictions tend to be conspiratorial or hold prepper-mindsets. Those fear biases rarely align with reality. Besides a short ATM shock, cash will exist as usual during and alongside any monetary system transition, it will simply be a losing hedge. Ease of use redemption options at post offices and big banks will not be the only incentive for most people. Businesses and merchants will lead the way. As of this July, stablecoins are effectively legal in the US, when backed by the amorphously defined US Dollar (who's definition could change overnight with the right EO). This was a key green light to industry, giving them the option to navigate outside the conventional monetary architecture if need be - effectively defanging many potential capital controls for businesses. During the transition, businesses will quickly opt for the decentralized and reliable digital alternatives due to accountability, transparency, and availability - many options already exist to serve enterprises (unlike 07-08 monetary challenge), so this "free market" movement won't be entirely retail or consumer led. As mentioned before, don't be surprised if there is a prepared and proactive solution from the GSICs this time (unlike 08, which was reactive). 3.Outsider Information, Bessent, and the Golden Age: To summarize, crypto on the 'TO OWN' list will platform and support the CBDCs to come. Those free-market coins will present massive investment opportunities for several years to come. Eventually, you can and many of you will likely have to convert them to the digital winners of tomorrow, which will all be CBDCs. And yes, the US will eventually have a state-backed digital currency under the treasury via the redenomination process. It won't be called a CBDC because it won't be backed by a central bank, but a consortium of banks under the US Treasury, who's reserves will be required (gold) at far higher ratios than many CBs (2-3x current), but still held at the US Treasury. Will it be a golden dollar to serve the so-called Golden Age? Before he became president, Trump had a long record of statements and publicized deals that supported gold as an investment, in settlement, and as a part of a monetary system. If investors studied his ramblings the same way they study Powell's statements, they would see this. Either way, there will be an American CBDC at minimum, even if it's wrapped in golden foil and comes with QR codes on red hats. The Secretary of Fake Teeth knows this, and he and his foreign country comparables have planned for it. With all due respect to him, he was part of an all-star team of FX traders, the best of the best. They understand what makes or breaks nations from a currency standpoint and they have a track record of macro mania to prove it. He was the analytics mastermind behind Black Wednesday (NOT Druckenmiller or Soros). He's literally the currency guy (though gold was almost always his biggest position), and now in command of the top currency and the entire mirage of the modern monetary infrastructure as soon as Powell is out. He's the one who pitched the idea of a shadow Fed Chair. I don't know if he'll get that, but I do know he will get the next best thing: being remembered as the trader that successfully margin called the Federal Reserve. That's why he was chosen, he's going to oversee the biggest currency revolution in modern history. Simply put, over 88% of global GDP will be functional within a CBDC currency architecture according to the Atlantic Council's CBDC tracker, BIS industry research, and my own review - likely by the Q2 2026. That's a lot of imminent coverage for a reserve currency system replacement that wouldn't be needed for 20-40 years, according to modern economists (TL: wagies). Is it possible the people who facilitate cross-border cash flows in the billions know something consumers don't about the near-future status of our dollar reserve system? Or a matter of curiosity that a tracker like this is hosted on the preeminent US/EU think tank? Instead of, for instance, ronpaulgold.com-? The transition between the known reserve and liquidity system (USD dominance) to the upcoming digital cash systems of many qualities and styles (programmable currency playground) will constitute the largest global valuation crisis window ever. Even if, at first, only the M3 or M2 is replaced or two-tracked (in the USA). Even if they use some kind of national AI to help balance the exchange markets and oversee a new lending and credit model (spoiler: that's coming). Maybe it will be great in your country, maybe not. Ultimately, it's not a depression or a problem, not if you're prepared for it. That's my recommendation - to be prepared for an unexpected currency swap on a national or international scale unlike anything crapitalism has ever seen before. Upside to any downside: you make enough money and its hard to be depressed. Yes, there will be inflation, and everything will appear to fall (rise for room temp IQs) as the fiat cost of money paradigm goes offline and confusion around the redemption under redenomination structure is common for general consumers. But in purchasing power, certain commodities and cryptos will crab market instead of play dead for great vol plays, and in some cases, represent the last great financial investment opportunities. They are on the functionality shelf that some solution-makers will draw from, so rumor over their potential incorporation will drive tremendous spikes that will mint more millionaires from the lower classes than any other time in history. Some of you reading this will be in that cohort, I guarantee it. There is much more to be said about CBDCs, credit systems & lending, taxation changes, debt forgiveness, UBI/prebates, SWFs, and such - as all will fold into a new paradigm under programmable currency. It warrants another giant reddit thread that few will read, but you should have the right to know what neo-feudalists are planning with your money systems. From the Vineyard to the Hamptons to Jupiter Island, the dumb rich has become the dumb majority. Many of them will find out just how dumb the hard way. Wouldn't it be nice to know ahead of time? To not be caught off guard for once? The cypherpunks designed crypto for a scenario like this. It's the failsafe for when fiat inevitably fails. You may very well be able to hold most of your liquid wealth in cryptocurrencies over CBDCs. Maybe it depends on the year of adoption, or maybe your countries policies. But doing nothing is the only bad option, and its the choice most will make. Why take the flat risk of a programmable purgatory of software patches, invasive KYC, geofenced value, and conditionalized capital controls? Some of these CBDC solutions will not be sound, depending on your country. It's entirely possible they all lean authoritarian in implementation or inefficient and deflationary in practice. Don't comply without question. Thinking is still free. I'll give the same advice I'd give anyone in any era in any place on Earth: sound money = sound mind. I started retail trading before most of you were born, back when Metatrader was an advanced piece of software and worked with an IP from the isle of Dominica. I understand the appeal. Doing your own research, "working" your own hours, drawing an income from anywhere in the world. Of only being responsible for your own wins or your own loses. You had the choice between life as a broke serf or a broke merchant, and you chose the latter. Historically speaking, some of you made a smart bet. Lifelong wagies will never know what a privilege this has been. Win or lose, you took your own risks - you set fear aside to try your hand at making a fortune. There's a big trillion dollar bank account floating around out there and you only need to press the right buttons to withdraw as much as you like. That's the trading market. How cool is that? It's the pirate's life and I sincerely hope it continues. I don't want to log on to this board 10 months from now and see one big cleanup on aisle 9. That's why I'm here to do the needful for free. Thank you for reading my ZH parody. See you on the margins.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CountofCoins
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 08, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is starting the new week on a softer note, dropping below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session. However, the decline does not look convincing, which calls for caution from bearish traders and positioning for a continuation of Friday's pullback from the 1.35550 area, or a nearly three-week high. The US Dollar (USD) is gaining positive momentum and pulling away from its low since July 28, reached on Friday in response to disappointing US employment data, which in turn is putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The rise in the USD can be attributed to the fall of the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid domestic political turmoil and risks fizzling out rather quickly amid growing bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below consensus forecasts. In addition, revisions to previous data showed that the economy lost 13,000 jobs in June, the first monthly decline since December 2020, indicating a weakening U.S. labor market. This has fueled speculation of a more aggressive Fed interest rate cut and should limit the USD's rise. The British Pound (GBP), however, may struggle to attract significant buyers amid financial uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget in November. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.34950, SL 1.34750, TP 1.35950
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
AUDUSD LONG NEXT WEEK! |OSOK|Hello friends, this is Joe_Blaq here and I thank you for reading this bit about fundamental analysis + technical analysis. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AUD currently experiences an economic boost since the GDP came out positive last month, USD on the other hand experiencing a decline in their GDP as inflation surges high and interest rate too high, leaving manufactures not option than to raise prices of their goods. This has also caused companies to lay-off their workers as their they can't borrow money because of high intrest rate. So if we are applying the principle of buying the rumour and selling the fact then we should be buying AUD and sell USD since it is anticipated that the FED is going to cut rate to stabilize the economy next 2 weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUDUSD bounced of a monthly support level at 0.61350 signaling a move to take out the high at 0.69500. On the weekly price has developed a bullish market structure . With this weekly outlook I am anticipating next week to continue the longs with a little contraction/accumulation on monday and tuesday and expansion during wednesday to friday as the inflation news are released. Thanks for you attention.
Long
by Joe_blaq
USD/CHF - H1 - Channel Breakout (NFP) (05.09.2025)The USD/CHF Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.8011 2nd Support – 0.7988 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
40
AUD/JPY - Channel Pattern (05.09.2025) The AUD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 97.26 2nd Resistance – 97.52 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
12
This week’s main event: Non-Farm Payrolls – Friday at 15:30!This Friday, September 5, 2025 at 15:30 EET , the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) . This release could confirm whether hopes for a near-term Fed policy shift are justified — the very hopes that helped U.S. equities climb to historic highs in late August. Markets see this report as a checkpoint for both the ongoing rally and rate expectations. NFP and the markets: 3 possible scenarios Strong report: If job creation exceeds expectations, unemployment falls, and wages accelerate — markets may believe the Fed will stay cautious on cutting rates. Typically, this boosts the dollar and bond yields, while growth stocks and tech underperform. More traditional sectors like banking, industry, and energy tend to hold up better. Gold and crypto often dip under pressure from a stronger USD and rising yields. Weak report: If job gains disappoint, unemployment rises, and wage growth slows — this strengthens the case for a faster Fed pivot. In this case, the dollar usually softens, yields fall, and growth stocks, gold, and major crypto (BTC/ETH) gain on expectations of lower rates. Neutral report: If numbers align closely with forecasts and there’s no big surprise, markets may remain range-bound. Initial reactions fade quickly, and focus shifts to the details — such as wage data and revisions to past reports. Price action often becomes choppy and short-lived until the next key catalyst. The September 5 NFP release is a crossroads moment before the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting. Volatility is almost guaranteed, and the market’s reaction will depend on the combination of headline jobs number, unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions. According to FreshForex , this setup offers tactical trade setups across forex, metals, and crypto pairs.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/CAD - Bullish Pennant (04.09.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bullish Pennant Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3835 2nd Resistance – 1.3853 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
50
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 04, 2025 GBPUSDOn Thursday, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair fell to around 1.3430. The pound sterling (GBP) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid concerns about the UK's financial situation. UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday that she would present the annual budget on November 26, insisting that the economy is not “broken” and that she would control spending to help reduce inflation and borrowing costs. However, concerns about the UK's ability to control its finances are weighing on sentiment and dragging the pound down against the US dollar. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of job openings on the last working day of July was 7.181 million. This figure followed 7.357 million (revised from 7.437 million) job openings recorded in June and was below the market consensus of 7.4 million. The weakening of the UK labor market, announced on Wednesday, reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates this month. This, in turn, could undermine the dollar and help limit losses for the major currency pair. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3400, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 03, 2025 EURUSDThe euro remains under pressure as demand for the US dollar as a “safe haven” rises amid higher long-end Treasury yields and a broader risk-off tone. Today during Asian trading, the pair fluctuates around 1.16300–1.16500. Dollar inflows are supported by concerns over fiscal sustainability in advanced economies and a steeper US yield curve, which dampen risk appetite and reduce demand for the euro. From a fundamental standpoint the setup is mixed: markets still price a chance of a Fed rate cut in September, yet the actual backdrop—firmer long-dated yields and cautious commentary on the US cycle—keeps the dollar supported. In the euro area, attention stays on inflation and signs of cooling domestic demand: soft PMI components and CPI expectations limit upside for the euro, while the differential in real rates continues to favor the USD. Near-term drivers include the incoming US macro flow on employment (including advance gauges and Friday’s labor data) as well as fresh inflation pointers from the eurozone. Against this backdrop, the fundamental balance still tilts in favor of the dollar, keeping downside break risks elevated for EURUSD in case US releases surprise to the upside. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16300, SL 1.16800, TP 1.15800
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/CHF - Wedge Breakout (02.09.2025)The USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 0.8048 2nd Resistance – 0.8067 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
64
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 02, 2025 USDJPYA fundamental weakening of the dollar is observed in the USD/JPY pair against the backdrop of expectations of a Fed rate cut this autumn. Investors in the US remain cautious, awaiting the release of fresh labor market data, while risky assets in the Asian region are pushing the dollar down. The Japanese economy is showing positive dynamics - capital expenditures are growing, and expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan are supporting the strengthening of the yen. At the same time, a slowdown in manufacturing activity is only partially holding back the growth of the national currency. The prevailing opinion is that the Bank of Japan may begin a cycle of monetary policy tightening before the end of the year, which increases the potential for the yen's growth against the dollar. External markets are also under pressure from unclear inflation prospects and a further decline in optimism about the US dollar. The conditions are in favor of a continued downward correction for the USD/JPY pair with the aim of updating support at the 146.150 level. Trading recommendation: SELL 147.500, SL 147.700, TP 146.500
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY – Big Week Ahead, Watch These Zones-Dollar still stuck in a range. No need to guess, just watch the heavy levels: -96.66 = bullish liquidity zone -99.80 = bearish liquidity zone -This week is packed with heavy news: -NFP Friday – jobs report could shake markets hard -Fed credibility under fire – politics trying to pressure the central bank -Be careful with dollar pairs — market makers love stop hunts around news. Best to stay patient → let price show which zone breaks first.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
$3,500 per ounce: Gold’s next targetGold has hit a new all-time high, surging more than 35% since the start of the year. According to the World Gold Council, prices climbed 26% in the first half of 2025 , with another 5% gain expected in the second half. Meanwhile, silver (XAGUSD) broke above $41 per ounce for the first time in 14 years, while platinum (XPTUSD) and palladium (XPDUSD) also posted solid gains. The rally is largely driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut. Markets now assign an 88% probability of a 25 bps cut in September — up from just 38% a month ago . Additional momentum came from dovish comments by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who backed policy easing due to rising labor market risks. Despite core PCE inflation rising to 2.9%, investors are betting on a weaker dollar and a flight to safe-haven assets. Geopolitical tensions are adding to the bullish case. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are fueling demand for “safe harbors.” Meanwhile, the Trump administration is pressuring Swiss gold refiners to relocate production to the US — a demand they’ve refused. In August, Trump also announced that gold imports will remain exempt from tariffs, adding to investor interest. Analysts warn that trade wars and supply chain disruptions could further boost commodity prices. According to FreshForex analysts , gold is expected to trade between $3,300 and $3,600 in the coming months, before making a run toward the $4,000 mark . With global currencies under pressure and recession risks looming, gold continues to serve as a global barometer of trust — and a powerful hedge against uncertainty.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 01, 2025 GBPUSDThe Bank of England's (BoE) cautious rate cut last month marks a significant divergence from the growing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs at least twice before the end of this year. This, in turn, has been a key factor in the relative strength of the British pound (GBP) against the US dollar and confirms the short-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair. However, the moderate rise in the US dollar (USD) could be an obstacle for the currency pair. Traders are also showing indecision and prefer to wait for important US macroeconomic data, which will be released at the beginning of the new week, to confirm the next stage of the directional movement. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for the continuation of purchases before making new bets on the rise of the GBP/USD pair and positioning for further strengthening. Market participants are now awaiting the release of the final UK manufacturing PMI to gain some momentum amid low liquidity due to the US Labor Day holiday. Meanwhile, attention will remain focused on the closely watched US employment data to be released on Friday. The popular non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will play a key role in influencing the US dollar's price dynamics and the movement of the GBP/USD pair. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3555, SL 1.3485, TP 1.3665
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
DXY Outlook – Bearish Lean, Choppy SetupDollar had a hard run the last three weeks with heavy bearish candles on the weekly. Price action has been messy, not easy to just get in and ride. My bias is still bearish, but I’m also looking at the bigger picture. On the monthly chart, key distribution sits under 94.095 and we haven’t reached it yet. Over the last two months price has been filling the bullish order block around 95.971 order block on the dollar index. If the market maker decides to move, it could go fast once the data lines up, whether in the first or second week. Right now we are sitting in a bearish volume channel lower end. Selling late is not smart because most of the move has already passed. That doesn’t mean there are no trades, but it does mean higher frequency and tighter risk until the next clear setup. From the economic side the jobs data is weak with only 73K added last month, which keeps pressure on the Fed to cut. The Fed is also seen as politicized, which hurts credibility and weighs on the dollar. Markets are already pricing a September cut and analysts are leaning bearish. At the same time inflation is still sticky near 2.9 percent while jobs are slowing, which leaves the Fed boxed in. Headline PCE is flat, not strong enough to flip hawkish and not weak enough to go fully dovish. That mix can trap the dollar between 97 and 100 until one side breaks. Best move is to keep watching the data closely before trading dollar markets. Bias stays bearish, but chop risk is high.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
GBP/USD Bullish Setup – Inverse H&S + EMA Cross | Target 1.3800📈 Technical Outlook GBP/USD has formed a reverse Head & Shoulders on the 4H chart. The EMA 50 has crossed above EMA 200 (Golden Cross), signaling bullish momentum. Key levels: Support: 1.3460 – 1.3400 Neckline breakout: 1.3580 Targets: 1.3660 → 1.3800 🏦 Fundamentals Federal Reserve: Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole shifted markets toward expecting rate cuts in September and December, weighing on the USD. Bank of England: Recently cut rates to 4.0% but remains cautious due to sticky UK inflation (~3.6%), giving GBP relative support. Institutional sentiment: Goldman Sachs, UBS, and BNP Paribas all see GBP/USD rising toward 1.38–1.40 in coming months. ⚠️ Watch Out U.S. Data Risks: This week’s U.S. GDP (Aug 28) and Core PCE (Aug 29) are key. Strong surprises could spark short-term USD strength and volatility before the bullish move resumes. ⚠️ Disclaimer This is not a trading signal, only my personal idea based on technicals and fundamentals.
Long
by Aegis-Market
🇪🇺 EUR/USD — Fundamental Outlook: Constructive / Bullish BiasThe euro continues to benefit from the shift in relative monetary policy. While the Fed is preparing to ease, the ECB remains on hold near 2%, with little pressure to act as Eurozone inflation gradually normalizes. Although growth remains subdued, the ECB is expected to maintain restrictive settings to anchor inflation expectations, providing relative yield support to the EUR. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have reiterated their bullish EUR/USD forecasts, projecting levels between 1.18–1.20 in the next 12 months, citing policy convergence, diversification flows out of U.S. assets, and the euro’s undervaluation. September’s flash HICP (due Sep 2) will be crucial: a stable reading should reinforce the ECB’s stance and underpin EUR/USD. ➡️ Bias: EUR/USD remains a buy-on-dips candidate, with the Fed’s dovish pivot and steady ECB policy driving upside.
Long
by Aegis-Market
DX1! (US Dollar Index) — Fundamental Outlook: Bearish BiasThe U.S. dollar remains under sustained pressure as markets move into September. The Federal Reserve has signaled readiness to deliver its first rate cut in September, following confirmation that July PCE inflation remained steady at 2.6% y/y, while consumer spending continued to soften. This combination supports the case for monetary easing to protect the labor market and broader economic momentum. Positioning data show that the market is already heavily short USD, creating short-term risk of squeezes on stronger-than-expected U.S. data — particularly the September 5 NFP release, which could delay the Fed’s easing trajectory if labor proves resilient. However, the medium-term consensus across major investment banks (JPMorgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs) is that the dollar will weaken further as the Fed embarks on a cutting cycle while the ECB, BoE, and SNB remain relatively more cautious. ➡️ Bias: Sell rallies in DX1! with tactical awareness of NFP risk. Medium-term bearish trend intact, Fed easing the dominant driver.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by Aegis-Market
BTCUSD Short Opportunity, Bears Take Control BTCUSD is currently trading around 116,980, facing strong rejection near the 117,200–117,500 resistance zone. The recent price action suggests that sellers are gaining control as bullish momentum fades. A sustained move below 116,800 could trigger further downside pressure, pushing Bitcoin toward 115,500 and 114,800 in the short term. If the bearish structure remains intact, the next major target lies near the psychological level of 110,000, which aligns with previous demand zones and a key Fibonacci retracement level. Stop-loss should ideally be placed above 117,600 to protect against any false breakouts. Watch for increased volatility during US trading hours and upcoming macroeconomic data releases, as these could accelerate the move. Overall bias remains strongly bearish as long as BTC trades below 117,500.
OANDA:BTCUSDShort
by SadarExplore
43
BTCUSD 1D Chart1. Price Trend and Structure The BTC price has fallen below the yellow uptrend line – this indicates a break in the bullish structure and signals weakening buyers. Currently, the price is hovering around $107,950, which is local support (red zone ~108k). Next important supports: $104,500 – $103,900 $98,400 (recent stronger demand level + near the 200 SMA). Resistance to break: $113,500 (green line, previous support now acts as resistance). $118,000 (key level for a return to the uptrend). $124,500 (highs). 2. Moving Averages SMA 50 (green) and SMA 200 (blue) → classic trend analysis: The price is currently below the SMA 50, confirming short-term weakness. The SMA 200 (~$100,300) is still maintaining the long-term trend – only a break below would signal a more serious bear market. Possible scenario: If the SMA 50 begins to decline and approaches the SMA 200 → a Death Cross threatens. 3. MACD Negative histogram, signal line below zero → downward momentum continues. No signs of a reversal (no positive divergence yet). 4. RSI RSI ~47 – neutral zone, slightly below 50 → not oversold, but showing an oversold market. The RSI previously rebounded from the ~70 line (overheating) and is now heading down. 5. Key Levels Support: 108,000 (current) 104,500 98,400 (strategic) Resistance: 113,500 118,000 124,500 📊 Scenarios Bearish (more likely now): If 108,000 fails → a test of 104,500, and in the longer term, 98,400 USD. A break below 98,000 would signal a long-term downtrend. Bullish (less likely at this point): A return above 113,500 and a daily candle closing above this level → a signal for a reversal and a possible re-entry into the 118–124k range.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
1
#DJI30 hits record highs: The index just made history!On August 22, 2025, the #DJI30 surged past 45,700, setting a new all-time high. The rally was fueled by growing expectations of a Fed rate cut, with cheap money once again making stocks attractive. Strong earnings reports from industrial and banking sectors, along with new White House infrastructure investment plans, added to the bullish sentiment. A solid labor market and resilient consumer activity continue to ease recession fears, prompting capital to flow out of volatile assets and into blue-chip stocks. As a result, #DJI30 posted a powerful breakout and reinforced its role as a key barometer of U.S. economic strength. Why the #DJI30 rally may still have room to run: Easing Fed policy: Lower rates and controlled inflation create favorable conditions for borrowing and investing. U.S. infrastructure expansion: Government spending on transport, energy, and digitalization supports real-sector companies — the core of #DJI30. Strong corporate earnings & dividends: Many Dow components offer reliable dividends, making the index attractive amid broader market volatility. Shift from risky assets: Funds and individual investors are rotating out of crypto and growth stocks into more stable “industrial giants.” U.S. geopolitical resilience: Despite global tensions, the U.S. remains a “safe haven” for investors, boosting demand for American equities. The continued rise of #DJI30 is underpinned by robust corporate profitability and the overall resilience of the U.S. economy. The latest earnings season confirmed the strength of major industrial and financial players, while easing inflation and expectations of a Fed rate cut provide a supportive backdrop. #DJI30 remains a reliable gauge of market stability and investor risk appetite worldwide. According to FreshForex, this opens a window of opportunity for long positions on #DJI30.
DJ:DJILong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004