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Fundamental-analysis

Barrick Gold $GOLD | On The RadarToday on the radar, Barrick Gold Barrick Gold has attracted some attention as major investors, including recently the notable Stanley Druckenmiller, have taken significant positions. With these influential players entering the fray, while the gold market experiencing remarkable momentum, the question emerges: Is this the right moment to buy? Well, let's dive on it and look at some fundemantals, some metrics and some technicals. The fundemantals Gold has exhibited remarkable resilience, maintaining stability despite the backdrop of high interest rates. It has remained relatively stable around the $2000 level for some time now and recently experienced a notable surge in momentum. Meanwhile, the mining sector has faced challenges and has been trading at discounted levels. This disparity may suggest a lag in market perception, particularly regarding the potential for a flight to safety and subsequently, a shift towards safety asset producers. The world economy is hitting a rough patch, with recessions popping up globally. While the U.S. is trying for a soft landing and celebrating record-high stock markets, there are some conflicting signs from key economic indicators. This divergence might resolve soon, depending on how things pan out in the real economy, possibly prompting a move towards safer assets. Add the fact that central banks globally are bullish on gold, and the BRICS nations are also showing a keen interest, aligning with the broader trend of moving away from the dollar. So, with gold demand on the upswing, and considering the mining sector's relative underperformance compared to the gold price, there seems to be a noteworthy opportunity for those looking to go long on both gold and the mining industry. The metrics Now, let's explore some metrics to determine if this company is fairly valued, discounted, or possibly overpriced. Right from the start, Barrick Gold stands out among mining companies for its exceptionally clean balance sheet. They have great cashflow, manage their debt and liabilities quite well, which could be one of the reasons drawing significant interest from big and famous investors. Notably, the company consistently beats expectations. Price/Earnings Ratios: Trailing P/E: 22.04 Forward P/E: 18.05 The forward P/E is lower than the trailing P/E, indicating that the market expects future earnings growth. The P/E ratios suggest a moderate valuation compared to the company's earnings. Price/Sales and Price/Book Ratios: Price/Sales: 2.44 Price/Book: 1.19 Both ratios suggest relatively low valuation compared to sales and book value. However, the interpretation should consider industry benchmarks and historical values. Profitability Margins: Profit Margin: 11.16% Operating Margin: 13.08% The company has healthy profit margins, indicating efficient operations. Liquidity and Solvency: Current Ratio: 3.16 Total Debt/Equity: 16.32% The company has a strong current ratio, suggesting good short-term liquidity. The debt/equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced capital structure. Growth and Financial Performance: Revenue Growth (yoy): 10.30% Quarterly Earnings Growth: Not available Positive revenue growth is a good sign, but it's important to consider the earnings growth trend. Cash Flow: Operating Cash Flow: $3.73 billion Levered Free Cash Flow: $675.75 million The company generates healthy operating and free cash flows. In summary, the stock seems to have reasonable valuation metrics, strong profitability margins, positive revenue growth, and healthy liquidity. Compared to some peers, Barrick Gold appears to trade at a slight discount. Over the past year, there have been noteworthy insider transactions involving both selling and buying activities. However, it is particularly noteworthy that the board of directors has recently engaged in a substantial buying spree. This prompts the question: What insights are they uncovering? The Technicals Now, let's delve into some technical analysis—the very reason we're all here and appreciate TradingView. Firstly, we're entering a week filled with significant economic data releases. Additionally, the gold market has experienced a prolonged uptrend. This is certainly a factor to keep in mind in the upcoming days/week, as increased volatility and potential corrections may manifest. Bearing this in consideration, let's explore how we can reflect these dynamics on the chart. Examining the daily chart over the past 1.5 years and scrutinizing the price structure, a distinct pattern emerges. Following a decline from $25, the price has exhibited a wide-ranging behavior. Notably, it consistently rebounds from the $14 range, suggesting a possible floor or bottom. Taking a more extensive view, this aligns with a monthly/yearly support level. The overarching support, coupled with daily resistance, hints at a potential continuation of ranging price action, possibly leading to a convergence or apex point. In such a scenario, there could be multiple buying opportunities in the coming months, facilitating the accumulation of a robust long position—unless a market shift and strong momentum occur. Examining the daily chart closely reveals a well-defined descending channel without a distinct apex for reference. Despite the recent breach of prior lows, it's crucial to interpret this cautiously, as breaking one low doesn't automatically signal immediate concerns, especially when the price remains above the monthly low. It could be indicative of a failed breakout. In the event of a market correction this week, these price levels might actually serve as a reliable range for initiating long positions, with a carefully placed tight stop around the $13 range. A tool I find particularly useful is the fixed volume profile, which proves valuable in identifying specific price ranges characterized by high volume. This method unveils potential breakout zones, support and resistance levels, and even target zones. I typically overlay these profiles onto specific structures, such as from top to top or bottom to top, to gain a more insightful perspective on volume distribution within the structure. A noteworthy observation is the concentration of the highest volume around the $16.50 range. In my approach, a breach of this level, followed by a potential bounce and continuation, could provide valuable insights into the prevailing momentum. A correlation exists with the recent Point of Control (POC) and some previous lows in this range, making it a potential local bounce zone worth monitoring. Beyond this point, significant price zones to consider include the $17.50 range and the $19 range. The latter could serve as a conservative initial target, and subsequent analysis of the broader circumstances will help determine if the price can break away, potentially sparking a major rally. If we manage to capitalize on a correction and enter at a lower current price, achieving a buy-in below the $15 range, could yield a 25% return on investment (ROI) or potentially even more, depending on market conditions. Observing the regular volume, there's a noticeable dip that occurred last year, particularly during the summertime. While this dip isn't particularly surprising or highly meaningful, what stands out is the consistent increase in the daily average volume. Another indicator I find valuable is the Hull, essentially an alternative moving average. It's currently on the verge of crossing and transitioning to green on the daily chart. While this doesn't carry significant weight on its own, it can certainly contribute to the decision-making process. Even if the crossing occurs and the indicator turns green, the price may still experience a pullback. The intriguing aspect will be observing the depth of the correction and whether the price manages to sustain the indicators in the green zone. Ideally, a bounce on the indicator could signal a retention of upside momentum. It's crucial to note that technical analysis involves a significant degree of subjectivity. The paths indicated on the chart with the blue dotted lines are not predictions; instead, they represent favorable scenarios to monitor. The outcome will hinge on various scenarios and how they unfold. Despite the inherent subjectivity, the fundamentals are sound, the metrics and ratios look promising and momentum seems to be evolving. And as always, please remember that this analysis is for informational and recreational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Draw your own conclusions based on your assessment.
NYSE:GOLDLong
by GoldvalleyCap
Is NVIDIA’s AI Boom Hitting a Wall?NVIDIA is the engine behind the global AI boom. From data centers to gaming and high-performance computing, its chips power the most advanced technology on the planet. Over the last two years, NVDA became the market’s biggest winner. Now, it has suddenly slowed down, and investors are asking why. The stock is down about 12 percent from its all-time high of 212 dollars and closed at 186.23 dollars on January 27, 2026. Even after the pullback, NVIDIA is valued at an eye-watering 4.53 trillion dollars and trades at a P/E ratio of 46. That valuation assumes near-perfect execution, and the market is no longer willing to blindly chase it. After one of the strongest rallies in tech history, NVDA has spent months moving sideways. On the chart, the price is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle, a classic sign of indecision. It is not breaking higher, and it is not breaking lower. Everyone is waiting for something to give. The biggest reason for this pause is geopolitical, not technical. NVIDIA appeared to secure a massive win with reported orders for more than two million H200 chips from Chinese tech companies, potentially worth around 54 billion dollars. At roughly 27,000 dollars per chip, this deal could have pushed the stock into a new valuation zone. But reality hit fast. Chinese customs blocked H200 shipments just days after the U.S. approved exports under a 25 percent tariff. According to industry sources, the message from Beijing was severe enough to feel like a temporary ban. NVIDIA’s suppliers have already slowed production, and that massive opportunity could disappear almost overnight. Even if China eventually allows the chips, the math is no longer attractive. A 25 percent tariff means NVIDIA would lose a large chunk of revenue to the U.S. government. Higher prices also make Chinese buyers less enthusiastic, especially as Beijing pushes companies toward domestic alternatives from players like Huawei. This situation risks accelerating China’s long-term shift away from U.S. technology, threatening a market worth tens of billions of dollars every year. Despite these risks, Wall Street remains optimistic. Analysts still rate NVDA a Strong Buy, with an average price target near 259 dollars, implying roughly 36 percent upside. Some firms, including Evercore ISI, see far higher levels if execution stays flawless. Confidence was also reinforced after CEO Jensen Huang called AI the largest infrastructure buildout in human history and backed that view with a 2 billion dollar investment in CoreWeave to expand AI data centers. The outlook is clear but tense. NVIDIA is not broken. It is dominant, expensive, and stuck between massive opportunity and serious geopolitical risk. The long consolidation suggests the next move could be powerful. Whether it breaks higher or resets lower will depend less on charts and more on politics, pricing, and how much perfection the market is still willing to pay for.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Abirstock
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 26, 2026 EURUSDEUR/USD is holding near 1.18500–1.18600, supported by broad US dollar weakness. The market is discussing reports that US financial authorities reviewed USD/JPY pricing, which strengthened expectations of possible measures to curb excessive swings. Against this backdrop, investors are reducing demand for defensive dollar assets, while interest in the euro is recovering. In the US, attention is shifting to the upcoming Fed meeting and fresh inflation and activity data. On one hand, the economy remains resilient, limiting the scope for rapid easing. On the other, uncertainty about future economic policy and the market’s sensitivity to the Fed’s independence are weighing on the dollar and encouraging flows into alternative currencies. For the euro area, the key remains the balance between slowing inflation and weak growth momentum, keeping rate expectations cautious. The euro is also supported by easing concerns around trade restrictions and a calmer tone in talks among major economies. If this backdrop holds, the euro may retain an advantage against the dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.18550, SL 1.18150, TP 1.19750
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Why Strategy Performance Depends More on Testing Than LogicTwo traders can trade the exact same strategy and walk away with completely different conclusions. One calls it profitable. The other calls it broken. Most of the time, neither is wrong. The difference usually isn’t the strategy logic. It’s the testing. Strategy logic explains why a trade might work. It tells a coherent story about market behavior, momentum, mean reversion, or trend. But logic alone doesn’t tell you how often that behavior holds up, how sensitive it is to small changes, or how it behaves when conditions shift. That’s where many disagreements begin. Backtesting helps by expanding the sample beyond a single outcome. A strategy that looks reliable on one chart, timeframe, or parameter set may behave very differently when those assumptions are adjusted. Small changes in inputs, market regime, volatility, or timeframe can dramatically alter performance, drawdown, and consistency. Without testing across these variations, it’s easy to mistake coincidence for edge. This is why strategy debates never really end. Each trader is often judging performance based on a limited slice of data. Within that slice, their conclusion feels justified. One trader may be looking at a period where conditions favored the strategy. Another may be looking at a period where those same rules struggled. Both are drawing conclusions from incomplete information. Backtesting doesn’t exist to “prove” a strategy works. Its real value is in revealing distribution. It shows how often a strategy succeeds, how often it fails, and how fragile or stable it is when assumptions are changed. Robust strategies tend to exhibit similar behavior across a range of conditions. Fragile strategies depend heavily on specific settings or environments remaining intact. This is also why optimization alone can be misleading. A strategy that produces exceptional results at a single configuration may collapse when slightly perturbed. Testing across broader parameter ranges helps separate genuine structural behavior from overfitting. Logic still matters. Backtesting doesn’t replace it. But without testing, logic remains theoretical. With testing, it becomes contextualized. Performance stops being a story and starts becoming measurable. Most disagreements in trading aren’t really about the market. They’re about how much of the picture has actually been tested.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Quant_Trading_Pro
NZDJPY – 4H | Bullish Structure Holds | Fundamentals SupportNZDJPY continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel trendline support on the 4H timeframe, maintaining a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Despite the recent rejection from the upper boundary, the broader trend structure remains bullish. The move from recent highs has developed as a controlled pullback, with price rotating back into a key demand area aligned with the lower channel trendline support. This zone has repeatedly acted as structural support, and the current reaction suggests buyers are still defending the trend rather than exiting positions aggressively. From a technical standpoint, price remains above rising structural support, keeping the bullish framework valid. There is no confirmed break in market structure at this stage, and momentum appears to be stabilizing following the corrective move and Next Potential terget's 'will be 94 and 94.500 Key Scenarios As long as price holds above asending channel support, the bias favors trend continuation, with scope for a move back toward the previous high (HH) and potentially further upside within the channel. A clean 4H close below the channel support would invalidate the continuation setup and shift focus toward a deeper pullback into prior demand and structure lows at 90.500 Fundamental Confluence (Macro + Domestic Alignment) Fundamentals currently provide conditional support for NZD, adding confluence to the technical continuation scenario while keeping downside risks clearly defined. 1: Monetary Policy – RBNZ: After completing an aggressive 325 bps easing cycle, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has shifted to a neutral, data-dependent stance. While this is not an outright hawkish pivot, it strongly signals that the rate-cutting phase is likely paused for now. Markets typically interpret the end of easing as a relative hawkish shift, particularly versus currencies tied to prolonged accommodation. This reduces near-term downside pressure on NZD. 2: Global Risk & Trade Environment: Recent developments have lowered near-term trade uncertainty. The U.S. decision to withdraw planned tariffs on several European nations, alongside the EU’s move to pause its proposed retaliatory measures, has reduced escalation risk in global trade. Historically, easing trade tensions support risk-on sentiment, encouraging carry flows into higher-beta currencies such as NZD, especially against funding currencies like JPY. 3: Positioning & Forward Risks: CFTC data shows net speculative positioning in NZD declining for three consecutive weeks, suggesting positioning is more balanced rather than crowded. This keeps the upside constructive but not extended. Upcoming trade balance and business confidence data will be closely watched, as weak prints could undermine NZD and challenge the bullish technical structure. Domestic (Endogenous) Economic Signals Internal economic indicators point to a mixed but stabilizing backdrop, consistent with consolidation rather than deterioration: Manufacturing activity and consumer confidence are improving, signaling strengthening domestic demand. Retail sales and employment trends remain supportive, reinforcing labor-market resilience. CPI remains elevated while PPI is easing , suggesting inflation pressures are moderating without collapsing demand. Money supply and interest rates are declining, reflecting the lagged impact of prior easing rather than fresh accommodation. Debt-to-GDP and budget-to-GDP ratios are improving, supporting longer-term fiscal stability . Services activity and building permits remain mixed, keeping policy expectations cautious rather than restrictive. Overall, these domestic factors align with a neutral-to-constructive NZD outlook, reinforcing the case for trend continuation as long as global risk conditions remain supportive and Ris on Factor. Technically, NZDJPY remains in a valid uptrend, with price reacting from structural support. Fundamentally, the environment supports NZD resilience with conditional upside, aligning with the buy-side bias while respecting clear invalidation levels. Watching price action for confirmation. Bias remains bullish while structure holds.
Long
by awaisulabdeen
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 23, 2026 USDJPYThe USDJPY pair maintains an upward momentum, reflecting steady demand for the US dollar amid weakness in the Japanese yen. Investors continue to price in differences in economic conditions and monetary policy approaches, which supports interest in the US dollar against the yen. Fundamental pressure on the yen is strengthening due to ongoing caution regarding Japan’s economic outlook. Market participants do not expect any meaningful changes in the policy stance of Japan’s financial authorities in the near term, which reduces the yen’s attractiveness and helps keep USDJPY at elevated levels. At the same time, the market is factoring in the risk of possible statements or actions by Japanese authorities aimed at curbing the weakening of the national currency. Such factors could trigger a short-term correction; however, the base fundamental scenario still points to the US dollar retaining its advantage, supporting the pair’s potential for further gains. Trading recommendation: BUY 158.200, SL 157.700, TP 160.250
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 22, 2026 GBPUSDGBP/USD is trading near 1.34300 on January 22, 2026. The backdrop for sterling is mixed: UK inflation in December rose to 3.4%, and services inflation to 4.5%, making the market more cautious about pricing in rapid Bank of England rate cuts. However, weak economic growth and a cooling labor market keep expectations in place that the 3.75% rate will be reduced further over time. On the US side, the dollar is supported by higher interest rates: the Fed’s target range is 3.50–3.75%, and the regulator is tying future decisions to incoming data. Today’s key releases include growth and inflation figures, as well as weekly jobless claims. If the reports confirm resilient demand and a gradual easing of inflation pressure, demand for the dollar may strengthen. External trade headlines between the US and Europe remain a source of short-term volatility and affect investors’ appetite for risk. On such days, sterling tends to be vulnerable as market participants prefer to rotate into more liquid assets and currencies with a clearer yield advantage. If the dollar remains supported, the base-case scenario is pressure on GBP/USD and a move lower from current levels. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.34300, SL 1.34500, TP 1.33500
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
BANK OF MAHARASHTRA - DAILY CHART MY VIEW The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. We do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Please keep your comments useful & respectful. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. Thanks for your support Tradelikemee Academy Saanjayy K G
NSE:MAHABANKLong
by Tradelikemee
USOIL — High Risk — 01/19/2026The current state of the world makes this a high risk trade, but my set up is clear. Let's see what happens. Indication — Last week, price broke the previous high at 59.77 to find the new level of sellers at 62.36. Correction — After reaching this new level of sellers price corrected back to the previous swing high and swing low levels in the uptrend (the break-out level). Continuation — Currently, buyers and sellers are equal, but if price gets above 59.77, it is a signal that buyers have momentum and are taking control of the market. At 59.77 I will put my trust in the market structure and buy the continuation to 62.36, the price that the market showed us that it's capable of reaching as of last week. Condition: I will place this trade so long as price doesn't break the 4H swing low first.
TVC:USOILLong
by CashFalcon
2
UMAC: when unusual machines start printing moneyUnusual Machines operates in a high-risk, niche technology segment driven by speculative demand and rapid capital rotation. Recent attention to the stock has increased sharply due to volume expansion and growing market interest. This is not a value-driven story but a momentum-driven one, where price behavior and liquidity flows dominate decision-making. Such stocks are often used by funds and traders during risk-on phases to accelerate returns through volatility. Technically, UMAC has broken out from a long accumulation base and confirmed a structural trend shift. Price is holding above the key 0.618 Fibonacci level, signaling strong bullish control. The current structure resembles post-breakout consolidation with continuation potential. The primary scenario targets 26.1 and 39.3 based on Fibonacci extensions, provided price holds above the 17.5–18.0 zone. An alternative scenario allows for a pullback toward 12.8–13.0, which may act as a re-entry support zone. CCI remains in positive territory, confirming sustained momentum. When markets reward risk, stocks like this do not move quietly. They move fast, and they move without apology.
AMEX:UMACLong
by InvestWorld_777
USD/JPY would be consolidating until BoJ meeting this Friday・USD/JPY market fundamental The Japanese Yen has weakened following reports of Prime Minister Takaichi's snap election. Market is anticipating that her administration will implement expansionary fiscal policies. Japanese Financial Minister Katayama has been warning against the rapid movement of the Yen several times last week. Market is now focusing on BoJ meeting scheduled for Friday. If the BoJ signals a faster pace of rate hikes, the current support level could be broken and potentially reversing the trend. ・Technical Analysis USD/JPY market is expected to consolidate within the range of 157.000 to 160.000 ahead of the Friday's BoJ meeting.
by Mallow_S
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 16, 2026 EURUSDEUR/USD on Friday, January 16, 2026, is trading near 1.16100, but the single currency’s position remains fragile. The US dollar is supported by strong US data and fading expectations of near-term policy easing: the market is increasingly pricing in a longer period of high rates, which keeps demand for the dollar steady from investors and companies hedging currency risks. The backdrop for the euro is mixed. The European Central Bank emphasizes its readiness to keep rates at current levels as long as inflation stays close to target and no new shocks emerge. At the same time, a stronger dollar and competition in external markets weigh on the region’s export outlook, while talk of possible turbulence in global markets periodically brings back interest in the dollar as a safe-haven currency. Over the day, the key driver remains US releases and commentary: any signs that inflation pressure is holding up will work against EUR/USD. The euro could find support if euro area data improves confidence in sustainable growth, but in the base case market participants remain inclined to hold dollars, increasing the likelihood of a moderate decline in the pair. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16150, SL 1.16350, TP 1.15250
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Silver +144% in 2025 and another +28.7% in 2026FreshForex analysts note that in 2026, the key benchmarks for silver (XAGUSD) will remain Fed decisions, movements in the US dollar and real yields, the supply–demand balance, and investor flows into metals. Demand for silver (XAGUSD) is picking up — here’s what’s behind its growth: The Fed may cut rates → holding funds in bonds and deposits becomes less attractive, increasing interest in metals. The dollar is weakening → silver priced in dollars usually becomes more expensive. Markets are nervous → investors more often buy “safe-haven” assets, including silver. Silver is essential for industry (electronics, solar panels) → industrial demand supports prices. Speculators and funds are stepping in → as prices rise, new buyers enter the market, strengthening the trend. Silver (XAGUSD) is supported by two factors at once — safe-haven demand and industrial consumption — which is why silver may grow faster than gold.
SAXO:XAGUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Note: BTCUSD 14 Jan 2026Bitcoin is trading near $95K after a strong bounce, with macro sentiment improving as US inflation data for December came in broadly steady (headline in line, core a touch softer), keeping “Fed pause now, cuts later in 2026” on the table. Regulatory optimism is also helping risk appetite, with traders watching fresh US market-structure discussions around crypto legislation as a potential tailwind for broader participation. Profit-taking pressure has cooled sharply into the new year (realized profit fell to ~$183.8M/day on a 7D basis after running above $1B/day through much of Q4), which helped BTC break out from the ~$87K compression toward the mid-$90Ks. However, BTC is still pushing into heavy overhead supply (recent buyers’ cost basis clustered roughly $92K–$117K), meaning rallies can meet “breakeven selling” as underwater holders get a chance to exit. Short-term holder cost basis near ~$99K is the key reclaim level to confirm recovery; until then, the market remains range-bound and headline-sensitive. Latest data also flags mixed internals: spot liquidity is only modestly rebuilding, ETF flows have been volatile, options skew has leaned more defensive, and the share of supply held by short-term participants remains elevated (higher sensitivity to fast moves). Bottom line: fundamentals look constructive, but the path higher likely requires time to absorb overhead supply and avoid leverage-driven whipsaws. 🟢 Bullish factors: 1. Softer core inflation / “Fed cuts later” narrative supports risk assets. 2. On-chain profit-taking has materially cooled (market less forced to distribute). 3. Early-year options flow tilt toward calls around the $95K area suggests upside participation returning. 4. Network activity and transfer volumes have shown improvement versus late-2025 lows (early signs of engagement rebuilding). 🔴 Bearish factors: 1. Large overhead supply zone ($92K–$117K) can cap rallies and trigger breakeven selling. 2. ETF flow volatility + periodic institutional de-risking keeps breakouts fragile. 3. Rising funding / mixed derivatives positioning increases long-squeeze risk on pullbacks. 4. Defensive options skew implies the market is still paying up for downside protection. 🎯 Expected targets: Slight bullish bias while holding 92,000–90,000. A sustained reclaim above 99,000–100,000 can open 104,000–106,000 first, then 110,000–117,000 as the next major overhead-supply band. If BTC fails to hold 90,000, a pullback toward 87,000 and then 81,000–83,000 becomes the likely “range floor” retest.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Trade8Eight
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 15, 2026 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 15.01 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims USDJPY: USD/JPY is hovering around 158.3–158.6, with the yen still under pressure due to political uncertainty and expectations of expanded fiscal stimulus in Japan. This adds to concerns about the debt burden and encourages investors to move away from the yen. On the US side, the dollar is supported by relatively strong data and the view that the Fed is unlikely to ease policy aggressively in the coming weeks. At the same time, as the pair approaches the 159–160 area, the “authorities factor” becomes more important: Japan’s Ministry of Finance regularly signals readiness to respond to “excessive” FX moves, so the market has to price in intervention risk. In addition, the Bank of Japan has begun raising rates, and any signs of further normalization increase the chances of a stronger yen. The base case for today is a corrective decline in USD/JPY: even firm warnings from officials or a deterioration in global risk appetite can temporarily boost demand for the yen. The main risk is fresh drivers of JPY weakness—political statements, rising US yields, or strong US data. Trading recommendation: SELL 158.500, SL 159.100, TP 156.700
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 14, 2026 GBPUSDOn January 14, GBP/USD is trading around 1.34200–1.34700. Support for the pound in recent sessions was largely driven by a temporary weakening of the dollar amid political news in the US, but the market is quickly returning to the assessment of interest rates and the underlying economic trend. The focus is on UK statistics: GDP data are expected this week, followed by employment and inflation reports. If the numbers come in below expectations, market participants will strengthen bets on a Bank of England rate cut in the first half of the year, which typically limits the pound’s potential. The US, by contrast, still has arguments in favor of higher yields and, as a result, demand for the dollar—especially when global uncertainty rises. In the absence of signals of near-term easing by the Federal Reserve, the probability of further downside in the pair remains elevated. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.34250, SL 1.34600, TP 1.33200
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 13, 2026 EURUSDEUR/USD is holding around 1.16600–1.16700. Demand for the dollar has eased on reports of political pressure on the US Federal Reserve: investors are treating US assets more cautiously and are partially reducing dollar positions. The euro is receiving moderate support, although overall market sentiment remains restrained ahead of US macroeconomic releases. For the dollar, key drivers remain rate expectations and confidence in the predictability of the regulator’s policy. When uncertainty rises, Treasury yields fluctuate more and interest in alternative currencies increases. Inflation is also important: signs of slowing price growth raise the likelihood of lower rates later this year and limit the upside potential for USD strength. In the euro area, inflation moved closer to target levels by the end of 2025, and the economy looks relatively resilient, supporting a scenario of a prolonged pause by the ECB. If nervousness around the US persists, the baseline risk for the pair is further dollar weakening and a gradual shift in EUR/USD higher as the market weighs fresh data on prices and consumption. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.16600, SL 1.16400, TP 1.17300
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Weekly outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 16 January 2026XAUUSD: BUY 4570.00, SL 4540.00, TP 4660.00 Gold starts the week near $4,570 per ounce, holding close to record highs amid stronger demand for safe-haven assets. Support comes from rising geopolitical tensions and a softer US dollar as investors reassess the stability of US monetary policy. Over the coming days, the main driver will be US inflation data and the Fed’s messaging: if price growth remains moderate, expectations of rate cuts should keep gold in demand. A sharp jump in government bond yields could cap gains, but ongoing buying by central banks continues to provide a fundamental cushion. Trading recommendation: BUY 4570.00, SL 4540.00, TP 4660.00 #SP500: BUY 6970, SL 6940, TP 7060 The S&P 500 begins the week near 6,966 after setting fresh record highs. Sentiment is supported by expectations of resilient corporate earnings, but the market has become more sensitive to Fed-related headlines and potential political and legal risks in the US. Key focal points this week are US inflation data and the start of the earnings season for major banks and technology companies. Softer inflation and strong results may sustain demand for equities, while higher inflation and a new wave of uncertainty could increase caution and temporarily cool risk appetite. Trading recommendation: BUY 6970, SL 6940, TP 7060 #BRENT: SELL 63.40, SL 64.00, TP 61.60 Brent starts the week around $63.39 per barrel: geopolitical risks in the Middle East add a premium, but the market is not yet pricing in serious supply disruptions. At the same time, attention is growing around a potential recovery of Venezuelan exports. Over the week ahead, pressure comes from expectations of excess supply in 2026 and cautious demand estimates. Support could appear if there are signs of production cuts or new restrictions on supply from major producers, but without such news the balance of factors still favors a modest decline in Brent. Trading recommendation: SELL 63.40, SL 64.00, TP 61.60
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 12, 2026 USDJPYOn January 12, USD/JPY is holding near 158.100, pulling back from recent highs amid a softer dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. The catalyst was news of political pressure surrounding the Fed, prompting some market participants to cut long-dollar exposure ahead of key US inflation data. Near-term prospects for the pair largely depend on US yields: a sustained rise in consumer inflation could keep expectations of higher rates in place and support the dollar, thereby maintaining pressure on the yen. However, any repricing of the Fed’s rate path toward lower levels — as well as a drop in yields amid heightened uncertainty — typically supports a stronger JPY. In Japan, the situation is mixed: the Bank of Japan has raised the policy rate to 0.75%, but cautious guidance on further steps has not yet given the market confidence in rapid additional tightening. Still, solid wage growth and inflation expectations support the discussion of another hike in Q1 2026. If US yields fall while expectations for a firmer BoJ stance grow, the balance of factors shifts in favor of yen strength. Trading recommendation: SELL 158.100, SL 158.700, TP 156.300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XRP (1D): Price Consolidation with On-Chain ActivityXRP has moved into a consolidation phase following a large expansion move. Price is currently trading well above the prior base, but below the cycle high, with volatility compressing on the daily timeframe. At the same time, several on-chain metrics have continued to trend higher. Observations from the chart Price remains elevated relative to the long consolidation period prior to the breakout The 1-year active supply percentage has increased, indicating more coins are moving on-chain compared to earlier periods Active addresses have shown multiple spikes during and after the expansion, followed by normalization rather than collapse New funded addresses increased sharply during the breakout phase and remain higher than pre-breakout levels Total value locked rose materially during the advance and has retraced modestly while remaining above earlier levels These metrics suggest broader participation compared to the pre-breakout period, even as price consolidates. Interpretation The current structure shows price stabilizing after a rapid repricing, while on-chain activity remains elevated relative to historical baselines. This points to redistribution and network usage rather than complete disengagement. Price is no longer moving with the same momentum as during the expansion phase, but participation metrics have not reverted to prior lows. What to monitor Whether active supply and address activity remain elevated during consolidation Whether price holds above the prior breakout area Any renewed expansion in on-chain activity accompanying directional price movement A decline in both price and on-chain participation would weaken this structure. Summary XRP is consolidating after a large move higher. On-chain metrics indicate higher engagement than during the prior base, while price trades within a defined range. Further direction likely depends on whether participation expands again or continues to level off.
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by Cryptobingbong