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Fundamental-analysis

NZDUSD STILL BEARISH >The New Zealand Dollar had an explosive rally last week, deeply penetrating and ultimately invalidating the highlighted supply zone, indicating the exhaustion of any remaining unfilled orders. >We can now observe five invalidated supply zones lined up on the chart. >Above these zones lies a high-quality, fresh supply zone, where significant stop-loss orders and a large volume of sell orders could potentially accumulate in anticipation of the upcoming FED speech on Thursday, which may act as a catalyst for a sharp drop. >The US Dollar Index remains undervalued (refer to my USD analysis for more insights). >Given that the NZD is currently overvalued, the price may soon seek reasons to turn bearish. For this to happen, a considerable volume of sell orders will be needed to trigger a downward move. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Short
by TradersPod
4
SWING IDEA - PCBLNSE:PCBL is about to form a MACD Cross on the weekly charts. If the market favor this move and if it completes its crossover, the stock should easily be able to go all the way at least until its Swing High Levels. Fundamentally speaking, the company has received a patent from the Indian Patent Office for its invention titled "hybrid carbon black grade comprising Graphene to improve performance of rubber compounds". This could further add as a factor to get this moving in the upward direction.
NSE:PCBLLong
by thepranam
2
Weaker Outlook for GBP/AUD Amid Economic DivergenceThe GBP/AUD pair faces a bearish outlook as multiple factors align against GBP. Weak UK growth prospects, the nearing peak of the Bank of England's rate cycle, and cooling inflation are reducing support for GBP. Meanwhile, the Australian economy is expected to gain strength, supported by trade ties with China and stable inflation trends, signaling that AUD may outperform. As a result, the GBP/AUD exchange rate is likely to weaken further in the coming weeks. This outlook highlights the growing disparity between the economic conditions of the UK and Australia
Short
by ClearTradingMind
Textron: Why Textron Remains Bullish and Its Next Potential MoveAverage performance in the 3 months following the first interest rate cut of the Federal Reserve easing cycle: +15.2%. Textron (NYSE:TXT) is a multi-sector company that leverages its global network of aerospace, defense, industrial, and financial companies to provide various solutions and services to its customers. The company operates through six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Finance, and Textron eAviation. Its stock trend has been uncertain for several months, ranging between $80 and $95. However, fair value forecasts predict that the stock will exceed $100 and reach $104.38 (about 20% higher than the current price), which would be a historic record !!! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
NYSE:TXTLong
by CobraVanguard
Buy NZD/JPY Bullish ChannelThe NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 90.80, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 91.49 2nd Support – 91.92 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 90.35. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
31
Buy XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish FlagThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bullish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2660, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2681 2nd Support – 2696 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2648. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
18
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 26, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) remains depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) July policy meeting on Thursday. The yen faces challenges as traders expect the BoJ to ponder before further rate hikes. The minutes of the BoJ's monetary policy meeting expressed a general view among members on the importance of remaining vigilant on the risks of inflation exceeding targets. Several members indicated that raising rates to 0.25 percent would be an appropriate way to adjust the level of monetary support. Some others suggested that a moderate adjustment in monetary support would also be appropriate. Pressure on the U.S. dollar is being exerted by the increased likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) at upcoming meetings. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets estimate the probability that the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of this year at around 50%. Traders' attention is now focused on the release of final annualized U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter (Q2), due later in the day. On Friday, inflation data will be released in Tokyo, which could provide further insight into the economic outlook and possible monetary policy moves by the Bank of Japan. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 25, 2024 GBPUSDGBPUSD: GBP/USD continued to rally the Pound for the second day in a row, breaking above 1.3400 and hitting new 30-month highs after the US Dollar weakened significantly on Tuesday. Wednesday will be quiet for the Pound in terms of data, although traders will be keeping an eye on statements from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Green. MPC member Green will be speaking at the North East England Chamber of Commerce. The U.S. portion of Wednesday's economic data list is also underweight for the midweek market session. August's monthly new home sales figure is unlikely to have much momentum one way or the other, followed by a speech from Federal Reserve Board of Governors (Fed) member Adrian Kugler, who will speak at Harvard's Kennedy School in Cambridge. Consumer confidence deteriorated across the board on Tuesday, with consumer expectations for 12-month inflation accelerating to 5.2 per cent. Consumers also reported a general weakening in their six-month outlook for household financial conditions, and consumer assessments of overall business conditions turned negative. The pullback in consumer confidence results triggered renewed trading in the rates markets in favour of a subsequent sharp rate cut in November. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, rates markets are pricing in nearly 60% probability of a second 50 bps rate cut. 7 November and only a 40% probability of a more reasonable subsequent 25bp rate cut. Earlier in the week, traders were estimating roughly equal odds of a 50bp or 25bp rate cut. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURO FUTURES, EURUSD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY OUTLOOK What we have here is the fundamental outlook from the Net-positions of Big Fund Managers. Fund Managers are normally trend following. Every time there is a negative or positive divergence between the price chart and the Fund Managers Net positions, Price usually follows next forming the trend. Fund Managers net positions moves the market because they have big reportable positions to the CFTC. We are currently approaching a Daily and Weekly Supply zone which could be the cause of price falling down in the next few weeks. Also, Euro is negatively correlated to DXY, wherein we are currently in the oversold reading. ***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
CME:6E1!Short
by TradersPod
Alpha Group - What next post-earnings and CEO sucession plan?My take on Alpha Group: Alpha Group LSE:ALPH leads, in my view, as the UK's best FXRM firm, and institutional lending provider. What most lenders don't do is take a mixed approach - both expertise and technology when developing and implementing their services. From a macro perspective, Alpha Group provide stronger growth prospects than peers, as well as higher margins. They are continuously making large investments into their infrastructure, expanding their already strong platform. Analysts ests. momentum continues to be strong, due to the cheap valuation (despite the inflated NII). The acquisition of Cobase had provided an additional vector of growth for the company, and will continue to do so into the future. Presently, and historically, Alpha Group have always displayed a super solid balance sheet, indicating mgmt. are in control. Buybacks are continuous, with £20m now completed in this year alone, leaving them with a huge cash position, over £180m. And, as we all know by know, interest rates are dropping globally! Slowly, but surely, we will come down to a more modest cost of borrowing, and Alpha Group are a major beneficiary of this. 4th September 2024 - 1H24 results • Total income up 19% yoy to £107m. Revenues at £64m, a 16% yoy rise. 1H underlying EBITDA @ £25.3m (39.4% margin), surpassing PH’s estimate of £23.3m. • Additionally, an increase in net client additions and revenue per client. Corporate FXRM client base grew by 9% yoy, and institutional FX client numbers rose 11% yoy. • Cash up again! Now sitting on £180m at the end of the first half. Buyback on track, now with £20m completed. • As at 04/09, trading at approx. 6x ‘25e EV/EBITDA and an 8% FCF yield, still suggesting good valuation for buying. 10th September 2024 - CEO Transition & Succession - Alpha Group announced today that Morgan Tillbrook, CEO, has decided to step down from his duties at the company. - He will continue his role up until the end of the calendar year, where he will then be succeeded by Clive Khan. - Clive is currently Chairman at Alpha Group and is also the CEO of takepayments. takepayments was recently acquired by Global Payments NYSE:GPN , which I believe provides perfect timing for Clive to step down as CEO and step up for the role at Alpha Group. - With over 30 years in the FX and payments industry, there's no real better option than Clive, as his philosophy is almost identical to Morgan's. - He transformed takepayments from a failing bill payments business into one of the leading card acceptance businesses in the UK. As for Morgan, he too has a history of angel investing. - I anticipated a potential move for Morgan, as his long history of angel investing gave me a "heads up" to his absence. - At the open on the 10th, the markets felt disappointed and surprised, causing the stock to drop c.10% on the day. - However, Morgan made absolutely clear in his formal announcement that he will be leaving the business primed for further exponential growth and equipped with a robust business model. He emphasised that Alpha Group cannot be left in better hands than Clive, and I believe there is no reason to expect a rough transition in the step-up for him.
ALong
by FytaLO
Buy USDJPY Bullish ChannelThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 143.77, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 145.38 2nd Support – 146.08 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 143.00. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
Sell GBPCHF Channel BreakoutThe GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1304, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.1220 2nd Support – 1.1188 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.1350. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
Sell EUR/AUD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.6370, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.6300 2nd Support – 1.6260 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.6400. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
16
It's Meme's Galore......But is PEPE different?DOGE, SHIB, FLOKI, BONK, DOGWIFHAT, and whatever else you can come up with, but it down and there might be a coin created with that name. The meme scene has exploded, with only a few pushing into the billion market arena (FLOKI and BONK is in there). PEPE has exploded to pushing to the #28 coin, boasting a market cap around $3.4 billion. Aside from it being a famous character from around 24 years ago and riding that wave, is there anything else going on for this coin. Well one noticeable thing I researched was how it came on the scene. There wasn't any money raising or push to get in the coin. It was just there and all of a sudden started popping up. PEPE also doesn't charge any taxes. Its roadmap is simple to understand. And it has been gaining a decent amount of traction (pushing into more and more brokerages). But on its website, it says that there is no utility in the token and that it is for entertainment purposes. But look what happened to DOGE. The DOGE founder stated that it's just a meme coin, yet the coin shot up to around 0.72 in 2021. Could PEPE do this, maybe. Looking at the charts (weekly), there is a descending channel showing which, if correct, could eventually release that kinetic energy to spring price up to its all time high, and maybe higher. But there is some conflicting signals, such as the possible ascending head and shoulders pattern, and price trading in a possible range/Darvus Box at 0.0000050-0.000009 (D1). If price does break out of D1, it still has to fight not completing the second shoulder of the H/S pattern. If it does climb higher, there is still the creation of either a double top or bottom, unless price is able to go parabolic in the next couple months. There is a decent sized community like some of the other meme coins, and potentially a lot of people are HODL to see if there is 10x or more gains. Yet I see this as a play that could have some money put into it to see what happens with this token. This coin has gained a lot of ground and traction, so I am in it to see what happens. In the overall Crypto market, I think it will be going up, so with the main, alt, and meme, let's see what happens. I think PEPE will have another surge, potentially towards the end of November or in the the middle of the 1st Quarter of next year.
CRYPTO:PEPEUSDLong
by DollarSaenz
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground for the third consecutive session on Monday in trading diluted by holidays. This downward movement could be influenced by growing concerns that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is in no hurry to raise interest rates. The BoJ kept its interest rate target range of 0.15-0.25% at its meeting on Friday. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the central bank “will continue to adjust the level of monetary policy easing as necessary to achieve our economic and inflation targets.” Ueda recognized that while Japan's economy is showing a moderate recovery, there are still signs of weakness. The US dollar (USD) continues to rise as Treasury yields recover their losses. However, the dollar could face challenges due to growing expectations of additional rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 50 percent chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.0-4.25 percent by the end of this year. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 144.000, if the level is fixed below consider Sell position, if the level rebounds consider Buy position.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004