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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 8, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair bounced back towards 1.0935, breaking a two-day losing streak during Asian trading on Thursday. A softer US dollar (USD) is providing some support to the major pair. Nevertheless, risk-off sentiment may limit EUR/USD gains amid escalating geopolitical risks. Later in the day, the weekly US initial jobless claims report will be released. Last week's weak US jobs report for July sparked speculation of deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, which continue to undermine the US Dollar. Financial markets are convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting in September, increasing the rate cut bets by 50 basis points (bps) rather than 25 bps, to nearly 83%, according to the FedWatch tool. On Wednesday, European Central Bank policymaker Olli Rehn said the ECB could continue cutting interest rates if there is confidence among policymakers that inflation will slow in the near term. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde said during a conference on the coast that any move in September remains an open question. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could put pressure on risk assets such as the euro (EUR). The market turned cautious after CNN reported on Wednesday that Iran and its supporters are preparing for a potential retaliatory strike on Israel. According to the latest reports, the retaliation could be delayed until Thursday or Friday. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 7, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day. This decline can be attributed to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday: "We will not raise rates when markets are unstable," according to Reuters. Deputy Governor Uchida also noted that the BoJ's interest rate strategy will adapt if market volatility changes economic forecasts, risk assessments or projections. Given recent market volatility, he emphasized the need to carefully monitor the economic and price effects of its policy, stating, "We should maintain the current degree of monetary policy easing for the time being." The upside potential for the USD/JPY pair may be limited as the U.S. dollar faces challenges and markets expect a more significant rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is 67.5%, up from 13.2% a week earlier. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell GBP/USD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2760 Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2680 2nd Support – 1.2637 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2834. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
51
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2430, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2385.50 2nd Support – 2358 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2480. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
61
Sell NZD/USD Channel Breakout (Today NFP)The NZD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.5952, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.5907 2nd Support – 0.5880 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.5984. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
8
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 1, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is unable to capitalize on the positive movement following the FOMC meeting and is fluctuating in a narrow trading range during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices are currently trading around the mid-1.28000s, almost unchanged for the day as traders prefer to take a wait-and-see approach in anticipation of the Bank of England (BoE) policy update. Signs that global inflationary pressures are easing have fueled speculation that the UK central bank will cut interest rates later today. In fact, financial markets estimate the likelihood of the Bank of England cutting rates from a 16-year high of 5.25% to be more than 65%, and expect another quarter-point cut before the end of the year. This, in turn, will help to strengthen the British Pound (GBP) and boost the GBP/USD pairing. However, investors are far from confident that the Bank of England will take immediate action as UK services inflation remains uncomfortably high. This, in turn, is deterring traders from placing fresh directional bets on the GBP/USD pair and resulting in a subdued range of price action. As such, the focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the post-meeting press conference. Ahead of a key central bank risk event, the US Dollar (USD) selling bias following the FOMC meeting continues to provide some support for GBP/USD and should help limit the downside. The US central bank acknowledged recent progress in inflation and a cooling in the labor market. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the likelihood of a rate cut soon if inflation remains in line with expectations and led to a decline in US Treasury yields. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Buy GBP/USD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2850 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.2905 2nd Resistance – 1.2930 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 1.2814. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
25
Sell EUR/USD Bearish Channel (Fed Interest rate)The EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0825, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0785 2nd Support – 1.0767 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0845. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
22
Will BoJ support Yen with a rate hike today?Macro theme: - On Wednesday, the BoJ announced an interest rate increase and a bond tapering plan, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy's recovery and concern over the weakened yen. - The BOJ raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%, marking the second rate rise this year after the Mar 19 increase, which ended negative interest rates, equity purchases, and yield curve controls. Technical theme: - USDJPY shifted its structure downward after breaking its support at 151.90. The price is trading below both EMAs, which is about to have a dead-cross signal, indicating that bearish momentum persists. - If USDJPY cannot sustain above 151.90, it may extend its loss to 150.80 and 146.50. - On the contrary, if USDJPY finds support at 151.90, the price may perform range trading within 151.90-155.80 till an apparent breakout occurs.
by DatTong
Buy GBP/JPY Symmetric TriangleThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 198.05 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 200.71 2nd Resistance – 202.43 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 196.20. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
32
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 29, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is trading on a stronger note around 1.28750 in the early hours of European trading on Monday. The dollar's decline amid hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is providing some support to the major pair. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday, no changes in the rate are expected. Most analysts and traders expect the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged at its next meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve may signal this week that an interest rate cut is around the corner, although many expect it to hold rates steady until its next rate decision in September. Investors now see the first rate cut coming by mid-September, estimating a 100% Fed rate cut of at least a quarter percentage point by then, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. Traders will also be watching the FOMC press conference closely for new stimulus. A dovish FOMC tone could undermine the US Dollar and create a tailwind for GBP/USD. As for the British Pound, the Bank of England may cut interest rates at its August meeting on Thursday, which would be the first rate cut since 2020. Markets are predicting a 50% probability of a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, although opinions are divided on whether the cut will happen now or at the next meeting in September. Trading recommendation: Trade in the 1.28400-1.28850 channel on a bounce from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
BTC.........Is it Accumulation or Distribution?????Price is with a range from 72k to 58k, with price pushing lower and trading within the 66k lvl. With the FED holding rates at 5.50% and signaling that it may hold rates at current lvls for longer, it is hitting the crypto market. There is a lot of self-fulling prophecy out there about when the FED will cut rates, with some looking at the timeframe being in September. There is a FED rate decision in July which could set the stage for the September Rate Decision. Before then, the FOMC Minutes will be coming out, along with another NFP and inflation rate reading. With traders and investors wanting to see some reprieve and a stronger FED Dot Plot pointing at 2 or more rate hikes for the year, a lower printing on the NFP and inflation and a slowing economy, will give some cheer to the market and push BTC higher. But on the other side, strong economic printing and inflation stagnating and staying where it is at or rising, will likely sweep the legs of crypto and cause price to fall. The US economy (whether you believe so or not) data is showing that there is no need to start reducing rates as of yet. GDP is around 3%, unemployment isn't to bad. Wage Growth is still up there near 5%. Inflation is still above 3% and the FED is reducing its balance sheet. The technicals are showing mixed data which could keep price from finding a trajectory until a solid catalyst comes out. The daily chart is showing price is form either a cup and handle or a double top. If the cup and handle pattern is correct then some type of strong catalyst came out (likely the NFP printed a extremely weak number, inflation dropped considerably, a string of bad US economy data) and had enough force to break out of the very strong 72k resistance. If that resistance is broken with enough force to push it up to 75k pretty quickly, there isn't much to stop it. But if the double top is correct, then price will likely push to the 62k and test the 60k a few times before breaking below it. If the 58k is broken and price is able to hold at the 57k for a few days to a week, then price will likely drop further, below the 55k. Data is going to be the driving point for what price will do. If data keeps printing good and bad, then it will likely cause confusion for traders and investors and they will likely take the course of exiting. There are some prominent players out there like Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) and other advocates of BTC (Robert Kiyosaki) that are likely to stay in and potentially keep price from tumbling greatly; but it still depends when the masses and hedge funds want to start piling in. I am thinking that if BTC does drop and hits below the 55k, there is likely to be a huge spike in buying up BTC as the self-fulling prophecy will be strong. The catalyst is likely to be when the FED will start reducing rates as eventually the economy will need some assistance. But the real question, is if the economy does push into a recession, will there be another case of QE and Stimulus pushed out (bailouts) if inflation is still around 2.5%-3%? Either way, I am still building a position on BTC even if it pushes below the 50k lvl.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DollarSaenz