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ES-mini Futures - (SPX) Analyses for Sep 25Market drivers for Thu, Sep 25 (ET) • 8:30 — GDP 2Q (Third estimate) + Corporate Profits (annual update). Official BEA release. • 8:30 — Durable Goods (Advance, Aug). Census M3 advance report (release time 8:30 a.m. ET). • 8:30 — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). DoL weekly claims (standard Thu 8:30 a.m. ET cadence). • 10:00 — Existing-Home Sales (Aug). National Association of Realtors, scheduled for Thu 10:00 a.m. ET. • Fed speakers — Vice Chair Bowman: 9:00 a.m. (Economic Outlook) and 1:00 p.m. (Approach to Monetary Policy). • Treasury — Multiple bill auctions scheduled for Sep 25 (4-, 6-, 13-, 26-, 52-week). Watch rate/curve reaction around midday. • (Context) Atlanta Fed GDPNow next update Fri, Sep 26 (used by markets for GDP tracking). Risk windows to respect: 8:30 (data cluster) and 10:00 (housing). Avoid fresh entries ~5m before/after these prints; expect liquidity gaps. Overall bias & PA projection (overnight → tomorrow) Structure: Uptrend on higher timeframes, but near a weekly/4H supply cap ~6,76x–6,78x with a fresh H1 pullback printed. Bias into NY: Balanced-to-slightly-bullish if 6,67x holds. Below that, rotation toward the extension cluster 6,66x–6,64x likely before buyers try again. Overnight projection: Asia/London likely to range 6,68x–6,70x. A London stop-run under 6,678 that quickly reclaims sets the stage for NY bounce. Acceptance below 6,672 opens 6,659 → 6,640 → 6,619. NY session — A++ setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Management rules (as usual): TP1 = next opposing MAJOR level; close 70% at TP1, leave 30% runner → TP2/TP3; hard SL = 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50pt; time-stop 45–60m; max 2 attempts per level. ES SHORT (A++) — Rejection Fade at 6,735–6,750 Trigger: 15m rejection close back inside the zone → 5m re-close down with LH → 1m pullback fail to enter. Entry: 6,740 ±2 (within zone after the 1m pullback). SL: Above the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,768. • TP1: 6,700 pivot. • TP2: 6,678–6,672 shelf. • TP3: 6,659–6,640 ext cluster. Invalidation / maintenance: Two whipsaws or a 15m body-through ≥1.0pt above 6,768 → demote/stand down; acceptance >6,768 flips bias to longs toward 6,78x. ES LONG (A++) — Acceptance-Continuation from 6,658–6,642 Context: High-prob “flush & reclaim” at the extension cluster before/after 8:30 data. Trigger: 15m full-body close back above 6,652, 5m HL + re-close up, 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,650 ±3 after reclaim. SL: Below the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,637. • TP1: 6,700 pivot. • TP2: 6,724–6,735 supply. • TP3: 6,760–6,770 (weekly cap). Notes: If the 8:30 print gaps price through TP1 immediately, manage fills but still honor runner plan; no trailing before TP2 per protocol. ========== London session game plan (02:00–05:00 ET) Base case: Range 6,678–6,700 with liquidity sweeps. Reclaim of 6,700 during London often fades back into the range; prefer patience for NY AM. Alternative: London sell program to 6,66x–6,64x → if quick reclaim above 6,652, that’s the Tier-2 bounce that feeds the NY long setup. Bear path: Acceptance <6,640 in London → prepare for a trend-day lower toward 6,619 unless NY reverses on data.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
VWAP/OR Setups & Macro Crosscurrents (Sept 24, 2025)The S&P 500 (MES1!) is currently in a volatile state as Wednesday’s trading session commences. Macro headwinds have dampened expectations for further rate cuts, leading to weakness in Big Tech yesterday. On the other hand, sector tailwinds have emerged, with Micron reporting strong Q4 earnings and Boeing and Palantir forming an AI partnership. These developments have generated after-hours optimism, supporting the performance of semiconductors and AI-related stocks. This volatile environment presents opportunities for scalpers. The volatility around VWAP/OR levels, coupled with liquidity-driven inflections, creates fertile ground for scalping. Chart Context (MES1! – 15m & 5m overlays): VWAP serves as a key pivot point, with multiple reclaims and rejections occurring overnight. The ORH stands at 6720.50, while the ORL is at 6719.75. As of pre-market, the VWAP is also at 6719.75. High-volume nodes at 6710–6722 act as scalp magnet zones. The overnight low at 6701.50 remains the downside inflection point. Scalping Plan: - Long bias above VWAP/OR breaks with volume. Target 6728 to 6735+. - Fade VWAP rejections back to OR. Quick 1–2pt rotations. - Avoid chop inside VWAP compression. Risk Management: - Use half-size into the open; scale only on confirmed breakout. - Hard stop: sustained trade below 6701.50. - Event risk: 10:00 AM New Home Sales, 4:10 PM Mary Daly speech. Takeaway: Scalpers should focus on reacting to market movements rather than predicting future trends. The ongoing debate between Powell and Micron is likely to lead to whipsaws in the market. Therefore, it’s crucial to adhere to VWAP/OR discipline, respect liquidity pockets, and let the market tape confirm the direction of the trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by TheFuturesPlaybook
GOLD has all-round support, Fed, geopoliticsOn September 23, the OANDA:XAUUSD market experienced a “roller coaster”: initially soaring to a record $3,791/ounce in the European session, then cooling significantly when the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke. However, gold still closed higher than at the beginning of the day, showing that the big uptrend has not been shaken. As of the time of writing, gold has adjusted down slightly to $3,754/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.25% and about $10 on the day. What keeps gold “shining”? • Fed monetary policy: Powell stressed that the Fed must balance high inflation with a weakening job market. The Fed cut interest rates last week and the FedWatch tool shows a nearly 90% chance of further cuts in October. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive than bonds or savings. • Fed view: While Powell has been cautious, other officials such as Bowman have warned that the Fed may be “slowing down” and need to cut interest rates faster if the economy worsens. This further reinforces expectations that gold will benefit. • Hot geopolitics: NATO accused Russia of repeatedly violating the airspace of member countries, while Russia-Ukraine tensions were further complicated by the latest statement from former President Donald Trump. After meeting with President Zelensky, Trump unexpectedly strongly supported the possibility of Ukraine regaining all of its territory. This escalation of tensions has caused a sharp increase in safe-haven demand for gold. • Market demand: Commerzbank pointed out that in addition to interest rates, factors such as ETF capital flows, doubts about the independence of the Fed and global political risks are simultaneously pushing up gold prices. Fundamental Outlook: Investors are focusing on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, due later this week. If inflation continues to run hot, the Fed may be more cautious, but the pressure of US public debt and international instability remains a “golden support” for the price of this precious metal. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by nearly 40%, the strongest pace since the late 1970s. With low interest rates, political risks and increased demand for shelter, the general trend still favors gold to maintain its “halo”. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD • Main trend: Gold price is still in the uptrend channel, each correction to the lower edge bounces up → buyers are in control. • MA line: Price is firmly above the EMA21 line, and the EMA21 is still pointing up → confirming the uptrend. The EMA plays a quite effective dynamic support role. • Important support: o Nearby: 3,720 – 3,738 USD (Fibo 0.236 zone + lower channel edge). o Stronger support: around 3,628 USD (Fibo 0 bottom). • Resistance – target above: o Nearby: 3,779 – 3,791 USD (Fibo 0.382 + previous candle high). o Next target: 3,825 USD (Fibo 0.5) → 3,872 USD (Fibo 0.618). If the breakout is successful, the possibility of advancing to the 3,939 USD zone is still open. • RSI & momentum: RSI is high, but has not yet fallen into extreme overbought. Momentum shows that there is still momentum, but there may be a pause (small pullback) before continuing to increase. • Candlestick structure: Recent candles have small bodies, narrow fluctuations → signs of market accumulation around the top. If the breakout is accompanied by liquidity, the possibility of further increase is very high. The current gold trend is still inclined to increase. As long as the price stays above the support zone of 3,720 - 3,738 USD, the prospect of conquering the 3,779 - 3,825 - 3,872 USD marks is completely feasible. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3826 - 3824⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3830 →Take Profit 1 3818 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3812 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3728 - 3730⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3724 →Take Profit 1 3736 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3742
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continues to set records, market awaits Powell's speechIn the Asian trading session on the morning of September 23, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD price fluctuated around 3,745 USD/ounce, after just setting a new record. Previously, in the first session of the week (September 22), gold increased sharply by 62.23 USD (equivalent to 1.7%), closing at 3,746.63 USD/ounce and on this trading day, it jumped to 3,759.29 USD/ounce, the highest level in history. OANDA:XAUUSD was supported by expectations that the US Federal Reserve would continue to cut interest rates. Low interest rates are generally beneficial for the precious metal because they do not yield. Despite being considered “overbought”, gold has yet to show any signs of technical weakness. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “poured cold water” on expectations of too-fast policy easing after the Fed cut interest rates. However, the move did not stop money from pouring into gold ETFs, with holdings rising the most in more than three years. This week, global investors are focused on a series of speeches from Fed officials, especially Mr. Powell's public speech on Tuesday afternoon (US time). According to the schedule, he will attend the "Economic Outlook Lunch" event in Rhode Island on September 24, where he will dialogue with more than 500 business and civil leaders. This is considered an opportunity for the market to grasp more about the upcoming monetary policy direction from the Fed. Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD outlook Main Trend Gold is in a steep uptrend channel, showing strong momentum. The most recent candles are all sticking to the channel line and above the MA line, showing that the uptrend is still maintained. Support and Resistance zones Important support: 3,707 USD and 3,673 USD/ounce (Two green lines on the chart). This is the zone where if the price corrects, it is likely to bounce back. Nearest resistance: 3,779 USD (Fibonacci level 0.382). If broken, gold can head towards: 3,825 USD (Fib 0.5), 3,872 USD (Fib 0.618), further: 3,938 USD (Fib 0.786). Technical indicators RSI: is in the high zone (above 70, signaling “overbought”), but has not given a strong reversal signal → indicating that the market still has upward momentum. MA: moving average is sloping up, price is much higher than MA → strengthening the uptrend. Trend analysis Gold may have some short-term corrections to “gain momentum” around the $3,707 – $3,673 range, but the medium-term trend remains bullish. If the price channel is maintained and the support zone is not breached, there is a high possibility that gold will conquer the $3,779 → $3,825 → $3,872 range in the near future. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3789 - 3787⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3793 →Take Profit 1 3781 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3775 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3726 - 3728⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3722 →Take Profit 1 3734 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3740
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
Short Arabica Coffee🔍 Setup Price is approaching a well‐defined supply/resistance zone (red area on chart). Historically this zone has acted as overhead resistance. Below, there is a green demand/support zone which should act as target support area. My target on the short is around 7.8% downside from entry, with stop loss placed just above the resistance zone / recent swing high to limit risk. 📊 Fundamental & Sentiment Background (COT & Others) According to the latest COT report (as of 9 Sep 2025), commercial hedgers are significantly net short in Coffee C. tradingster.com However, speculators / non-commercials are heavily net long. This suggests that bullish momentum is still in force. tradingster.com Open interest is rising, showing participation in current levels. This makes the risk of a breakout (to the upside) real, if bulls hold control. ⚠️ Risks to this trade Momentum from speculators could drive price through resistance, triggering stop losses and a strong short squeeze. Any unexpected fundamental shock (weather, export disruption, currency devaluation, etc.) could reduce supply or boost demand, pushing prices higher. If volume doesn’t drop on advance into resistance, the upward move may be stronger than anticipated. ✅ Conditions / Trigger For Entry I will consider entering the short position once: Price touches or re-tests the red supply zone. There's a clear rejection (candlestick reversal pattern + bearish confirmation). Momentum or RSI / MACD divergence is visible. Speculator net longs show signs of plateauing or declining in the COT (next report). 🎯 Targets & Risk/Reward Entry: around current price near supply, or after confirmed rejection. Stop Loss: just above resistance / recent high. Target: green demand/support zone (approx. 7-8% downside). Risk-Reward Estimate: aiming for at least 1.5-2x potential reward vs. risk, ideally better. 🧐 My Edge vs What Could Go Wrong My trading strategy gives me an average short profit of 7.8%, so this is in line with my risk appetite. The probability for a profitable trade for a short position is 75%. However, on average I will lose 12% on a losing short trade. But I’m aware shorting commodities is riskier when there's strong bullish positioning (as is the case with speculators now). I will monitor upcoming COT reports and fundamentals closely — if speculators increase longs again, I might bail earlier or tighten stops. Conclusion: The COT data does not overwhelmingly confirm a short at this moment. It offers partial support via hedger short positions, but speculator long bias remains strong. If price shows a credible technical rejection in the supply zone and sentiment shows cracks, I believe this short has good risk/reward.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by AlphaTurtle
Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup🍫 Cocoa Futures (ICE) – Long Trade Setup Direction: Long Bias Contract: Cocoa (NY / ICE) Current Price: ~7,437 🔍 Technical Setup Price has been consolidating after the sharp run-up and has now pulled back into a key long-term trendline (yellow support). A downtrend channel breakout is forming – if price clears this, it opens the door to a relief rally. I’m looking for price to push back toward the 8,500–9,000 zone as a first target (previous structure resistance). EMA cross (9 vs 19) is flattening, signaling potential shift in momentum. 📊 COT & Sentiment Speculators remain net long in cocoa, reflecting continued bullish sentiment. Commercials (hedgers) are still short, but that’s typical for producers – nothing extreme. Fundamentals remain tight: Black pod disease in Cameroon hitting yields. Stockpiles in London/NY at multi-year lows. Consumer demand holding up despite high prices. This alignment supports a bullish recovery if technicals confirm. 🎯 Trade Plan Entry: Current levels around 7,400–7,500, scaling in on confirmation. Target 1: 8,500 (previous resistance zone). Target 2: 9,000+ if momentum extends. Stop Loss: Below 7,000 to protect against breakdown. Risk/Reward: ~1:2 setup. ⚠️ Risks Stronger-than-expected supply recovery in Ivory Coast/Ghana. Weak grind demand data (sign of demand destruction). Speculators cutting long positions aggressively. ✅ Conclusion Cocoa has pulled back into long-term support, with positioning and fundamentals still supportive of higher prices. If the descending trendline breaks, I’m positioning for a long swing toward 8,500–9,000. This cocoa strategy has a profitability rate of 66% and average 9.4% gain on a long position.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by AlphaTurtle
2
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Pullback Trade From Support WTI Crude Oil looks oversold after a test of a significant daily horizontal demand zone. A formation of a bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame indicates a strength of that structure. With a high probability, the price will pull back to 62.38 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
FX:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 22 - Sep 26]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD prices fluctuated strongly: opening at 3,645 USD/oz, falling to 3,626 USD/oz, rebounding to 3,707 USD/oz after the FED cut interest rates by 0.25%, but being under profit-taking pressure and cautious statements from Chairman Powell, the price fell to 3,627 USD/oz before recovering and closing at 3,685 USD/oz. The Dot Plot shows that the FED may only cut 2 more times in 2025 and 1 time in 2026, while Powell's speech is no longer highly appreciated by the market due to the end of his term and the influence of President Trump. In the short term, gold may adjust and accumulate, waiting for US economic data, US-China trade and geopolitical tensions. This week, the focus will be on the August PCE index: if it exceeds 3% YoY, the FED may postpone the interest rate cut, creating downward pressure on gold; if it is around 2.9% or lower, gold will be supported. 📌According to technical analysis, the gold price continues to be in the overbought zone. If the gold price does not surpass 3,708 USD/oz this week, it will quickly be pushed down to 3,626 USD/oz. If this level cannot be maintained, the gold price is at risk of falling to the 3,550 USD/oz area, or lower. On the contrary, if it surpasses 3,708 USD/oz, the gold price next week may reach 3,750 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,673 – 3,614 – 3,600 USD Resistance: 3,700 – 3,707 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3751 - 3749⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3549 - 3551⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3545
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD "lost steam" after the peak because the US Dollar increasedThe world OANDA:XAUUSD fell in the session on Thursday (September 18) after hitting a record high of 3,707.40 USD/ounce the day before. The main reason came from profit-taking activities of investors and the strengthening of the US dollar and treasury bond yields. As of the time of writing on Friday (September 19), spot gold was trading at 3,648 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 0.12% on the day. New economic data from the US weighed on the market: initial jobless claims fell to 231,000, lower than expected, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index unexpectedly jumped to 23.2, a sharp improvement from the previous month. This pushed the greenback higher and made gold more expensive. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.102%, while the real yield was close to 1.722%, adding to the pressure on the precious metal. This was largely a technical correction after gold hit a series of new highs. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. The precious metal typically benefits when the Fed enters a policy easing cycle. In fact, the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 basis points, although there was no absolute consensus. Chairman Jerome Powell called it a “risk-control” measure for the labor market, but also affirmed that the Fed is in no hurry. In addition, data shows that gold exports from Switzerland to China increased 254% in August, reflecting strong demand from Asia. The trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves of the BRICS bloc continues to be a major support for gold prices. Since the beginning of the year, gold has increased by nearly 39%, and investors still believe that the target of $ 4,000 / ounce can be challenged in the near future. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has had two sessions of technical corrections, but it still has all the bullish conditions in place, while the initial conditions for a deep correction have not yet appeared. Currently, gold is trying to recover and is still above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can be said to be the closest support at the moment. On the other hand, gold is still in an uptrend channel and is receiving major support from the EMA21. As long as gold remains above the $3,600 base point, the declines should be viewed as a short-term correction or a fresh buying opportunity. The relative strength index (RSI) is also moving sideways after testing the 80 level, and a steep RSI break below 80 would be considered a signal for a possible deeper correction. For the day, the overall technical outlook for gold is bullish, and the key points to watch are listed below. Support: $3,614 – $3,600 Resistance: $3,673 – $3,700 – $3,707 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3678 - 3676⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3682 →Take Profit 1 3670 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3664 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3606 - 3608⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3602 →Take Profit 1 3614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3620
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
The Future of Global Trading1. Introduction: What is Global Trading? Global trading is the interconnected web of buying and selling goods, services, and financial instruments across borders. It is the lifeline of the world economy, where financial markets, commodities, currencies, and technologies all play a role. In the future, global trading will not just be about moving oil, gold, or stocks — it will include digital assets, carbon credits, data, intellectual property, and even tokenized real estate. The traditional definition of trade is expanding, and the pace of change is unprecedented. 2. Historical Evolution of Global Trade & Markets To understand the future, we need to look back: Silk Road Era – Trade was physical, slow, and limited to goods like silk, spices, and metals. Colonial & Industrial Age – Maritime trade routes and industrialization globalized markets. 20th Century – Rise of currencies, stock exchanges, and commodity markets. Late 20th Century – Introduction of derivatives, futures, and global index trading. 21st Century – Digital revolution: algorithmic trading, blockchain, cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets. The shift from physical goods to financial instruments and digital assets sets the stage for the next century of global trading. 3. Current Landscape: Financial Markets, Commodities, Currencies Today, global trading is driven by three main pillars: Financial Instruments – Equities, bonds, derivatives, and ETFs are traded across exchanges from New York to Tokyo. Commodities – Hard (oil, metals, gold) and soft (agriculture, coffee, cotton) commodities drive global supply chains. Currencies & Forex – The $7+ trillion per day forex market is the most liquid in the world. But we’re at an inflection point. The future will see integration of financial and physical trading with technology like AI, blockchain, and tokenized assets. 4. Technological Disruption in Trading Technology is reshaping every aspect of global trade: Algorithmic Trading: 70%+ of trades in developed markets are now automated. High-Frequency Trading (HFT): Millisecond execution reshapes liquidity. Artificial Intelligence: Predictive models replacing traditional analysis. Blockchain & Smart Contracts: Transparent, decentralized, and faster settlement. Digital Platforms: Retail traders can trade global indices and commodities from their smartphones. Future global trading will be platform-driven, borderless, and increasingly digital. 5. Future of Financial Instruments in Global Trade Derivatives Expansion: More futures & options for niche sectors (like EV batteries, rare earth metals, data storage). Index Trading Growth: Global indices like MSCI, FTSE, S&P, Nikkei, and Nifty will expand as investment products. Tokenization of Assets: Real estate, bonds, commodities will be digitized and traded 24/7. Synthetic Assets: Platforms will allow retail traders to invest in synthetic versions of stocks, bonds, and commodities globally. The future is “democratized global trading” — anyone, anywhere can trade anything, anytime. 6. Impact of Geopolitics & Economic Policies Global trade is not just economic, it’s political: US-China Trade Rivalry – Will shape global supply chains. Sanctions & Restrictions – Affects oil, defense, and technology trading. Regional Alliances (BRICS+, ASEAN, EU) – Compete to control commodities and currencies. Currency Wars & De-dollarization – Rising role of Yuan, Rupee, and digital currencies in trade settlement. The future global market will be multipolar, not dominated by a single currency or nation. 7. Role of Artificial Intelligence & Automation AI is the new backbone of global trading: Trade Execution – AI-driven bots will dominate execution. Market Predictions – Machine learning models will outperform humans in detecting patterns. Risk Management – AI will calculate probabilities of market shocks instantly. Fraud Detection & Compliance – Real-time monitoring across borders. The trader of the future will be less of a chart reader and more of a data strategist. 8. Digital Assets, Blockchain & Tokenization Digitalization is redefining global trading: Cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin, Ethereum, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Blockchain-based Trade Settlement – Faster, cheaper, and borderless. Tokenized Commodities – Gold, oil, and real estate will be traded as digital tokens. DeFi (Decentralized Finance) – Will compete with traditional exchanges for capital and liquidity. This creates a 24/7 global trading environment, unlike the traditional 9-to-5 market hours. 9. Risks & Challenges in Future Global Trading Cybersecurity Risks – Hackers targeting global exchanges. Regulatory Fragmentation – Different rules across regions. Volatility from AI & Algorithms – Flash crashes, liquidity gaps. Geopolitical Conflicts – Trade wars, sanctions, currency rivalries. Climate Risks – Extreme weather disrupting supply chains. Future trading will be more interconnected, but fragile. 10. Opportunities for Traders, Investors & Nations Retail Traders – Borderless access to global markets. Institutional Investors – Ability to diversify into tokenized assets. Nations – Can attract global capital by becoming digital trading hubs. Entrepreneurs – New platforms, exchanges, and trading tools will emerge. The future belongs to those who can adapt, innovate, and trade across borders seamlessly. Conclusion: The Road Ahead Global trading is moving toward a fully digital, decentralized, and democratized system. Technology (AI, Blockchain, Tokenization) will be the driver. Geopolitics will shape supply chains and currency dominance. Sustainability will guide investment flows. New Hubs in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will challenge traditional powers. The future of global trading is not just about financial profits — it is about reshaping economies, redistributing power, and reimagining how the world connects. We are entering an era where anyone can trade anything, anywhere, anytime — the true definition of a borderless global marketplace.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
ES (SPX) Analyses - Key Levels - Setups - Fri, Sep 19Bias: After the recent FOMC meeting, where they cut rates by 25 basis points on September 18, the E-mini S&P 500 futures are looking a bit bullish. There’s decent support holding up, but expect some bumpy trading around those all-time highs. We might see the market bouncing between the usual value areas, with traders likely to fade the extremes unless there’s a strong breakout. Momentum could slow down as we get close to overbought levels, which might lead to some profit-taking on any rallies. On the flip side, expect strong buying when prices dip. For now, the trading range looks to be between 6660 and 6710, with swings of about 20 to 30 points likely in quieter trading conditions. Friday has no major U.S. data on the weekly calendar wrap; Thursday’s LEI fell −0.5% m/m in Aug (already out), so macro tape-bombs are limited. Quadruple-witching: 09/19/2025 is the quarterly expiration (third Friday of Sep). Also note ESU25 last trade = Sep 19, even though most trading has rolled to ESZ25. Expect flowy opens/closes and possible “pin” behavior.  Options positioning (ES): • Report totals: 5.83M total OI; put/call = 3.51.  • Friday weeklies: 2.676M OI; P/C = 5.09 (put-heavy into expiry).  • Sep contract (ESU5, 2 DTE): ~1.07M total OI; P/C = 3.01; ~185k volume in the latest report.  • Vol: 30-day ATM IV ≈ 12.33% (down slightly d/d).  • 0DTE share in SPX options has been >60% of volume recently — expect same-day gamma flows to matter on a quad-witch Friday.  Bottom line: This is a put-heavy, expiry-dense tape with subdued vol. Expect pinning/reversion around big strikes and flowy opens/closes rather than a trend day—unless price cleanly accepts outside the range. Next known catalysts (not tomorrow but near-term): Flash PMIs Mon 9/22; U. Michigan final sentiment Fri 9/26. Setup 1 — Tier-2 (A+ Bounce) LONG @ 6680–6695 Trigger: sweep 6680–6690 → 15m close back above 6693.5 (AS.L) → 5m re-close + HL → 1m pullback hold. Entry: 6694–6697. SL: below the 15m sweep low −0.5 pt (hard). TP1: 6705–6707 (AS.H). TP2: 6718–6725 (W3). Management: at TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE; aim TP2; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1/SL hits; max 2 attempts/level. Setup 2 — Tier-1 (A++ Rejection-Fade) SHORT @ 6718–6725 Trigger: quick sweep above 6718–25 → 15m body back inside 6710 → 5m LH + re-close → 1m failure retest. Entry: 6714–6718 on the re-close. SL: above sweep high +0.5 pt. TP1: 6705–6707; TP2: 6693–6695; stretch 6685–6680 only if momentum continues. Management: same as above. SPY options overlay (execution notes) Given quarterly expiration and heavy 0DTE participation, prefer same-day SPY (AM window) with Δ≈0.60–0.70 on entries; consider 1-DTE for PM window to temper decay. (0DTE share data from Cboe.)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Bullish Confirmation?! Update for my yesterday's idea for WTI Crude Oil. The price retested a recently broken structure and we see a strong bullish reaction to that today. A bullish violation of a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern indicates a strong buying pressure. I think that the market will continue growing and reach 64.65 resistance soon. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
FX:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
2
GOLD was clearly supported, but Powell stopped shortIn the trading session on September 17 in New York, the US financial market "spinned like a pinwheel" after the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. The Dollar recovered after Mr. Powell's speech, causing gold to be sold off strongly. As of the time the article was completed (Thursday, September 18), the gold price was trading at 3,662 USD/oz. The Fed officially cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate band down to 4.00% - 4.25%, as expected. This is the first time the Fed has cut interest rates since December last year. This decision immediately caused the USD to plummet to a 4-year low against the euro, while spot gold prices jumped to a new record. However, after Powell's speech, the USD quickly recovered strongly, while gold fell from the peak due to profit-taking pressure. The US stock market also fluctuated violently: all three major indexes rose sharply for a moment and then quickly reversed. Powell emphasized that the Fed was in no hurry to ease further and this move was considered a “risk management cut”. In the statement after the meeting, the FOMC acknowledged that the US economy was “slowing”, employment was weakening, inflation was rising and the downside risks to the labor market were growing. However, the Fed still forecast two more 0.25% rate cuts this year, according to the “dotplot chart” tool showing the expectations of each official. New member Milan was the only one who opposed, wanting a sharp 0.5% cut. Powell said future decisions would be considered “on a meeting-by-meeting basis,” suggesting the Fed is moving cautiously rather than aggressively easing. Officials are also increasingly converging on the idea that the Trump administration’s trade and tariff policies will only have a temporary impact on inflation. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has not been able to surpass the 3,700 USD price mark, the profit-taking momentum has caused the gold price to drop sharply and very quickly, but with the current position, it still has all the conditions to increase in price. Specifically, the main trend is still stable with the price channel as the medium-term trend, and the support from EMA21 as the main support, followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level as the current nearest support. On the other hand, in terms of momentum, the RSI has not yet signaled the possibility of a more significant downside correction, as the RSI is still operating in the overbought area and is mostly moving sideways, indicating that profit-taking in the market is limited, leading to limited downside momentum. A downward sloping RSI through the 80 level is the best signal for a more significant downside correction. During the day, if gold breaks above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level again, it will be in a position to retest the $3,700 level, more so the $3,722 level once the original $3,700 level is broken. Finally, the general trend of gold price on the daily chart is bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,645USD Resistance: 3,677 – 3,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3696 - 3694⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3700 →Take Profit 1 3688 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3682 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3616 - 3618⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3612 →Take Profit 1 3624 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3630
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
ES (SPX) Futures Analyses - Key Zones, Setups (Thur, Sep 17)Same map as last night. Bias & structure Price is pressing the box top 6,678–6,683 (1h AS.H 6,683.25) with a dense extension liquidity pocket above (D: 1.272 ≈ 6,763, 1.618 ≈ 6,856, 2.0 ≈ 6,959). We trade edge-only: fade a rejection at the top, or buy a sweep-and-reclaim at the control level. Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (½–¾ size); NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00. London (2 setups) SHORT — Rejection Fade @ 6,678–6,683 15m tag → 15m close back ≤ 6,675 → 5m LH/re-close 6,672–6,674 → 1m LH entry 6,679–6,682. Hard SL: above 15m rejection high +0.25–0.50. TPs: 6,666–6,668 → 6,653–6,658 → 6,638–6,643. Cancel if two 15m body-closes ≥ 6,685. Gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. LONG — Sweep & Reclaim @ 6,653–6,658 (bias pivot) Wick below LIS → 15m close back ≥ 6,658 → 5m re-close up 6,664–6,666 + HL → 1m HL entry 6,659–6,662. Hard SL: below sweep low −0.25–0.50. TPs: 6,678–6,683 → 6,703 → 6,720–6,724 (runner eyes 6,744–6,750). U.S. (NY) (2 setups) LONG — Acceptance Continuation > 6,683 Two 5m closes ≥ 6,685 (or one decisive 15m) → PB hold 6,679–6,683 flips to support → enter on 1m HL. SL: under acceptance pivot −0.50–1.00. TPs: 6,703 → 6,720–6,724 → 6,744–6,750 (→ 6,760–6,765). Fail back below 6,679 on 5m = stand down. SHORT — Breakdown & Failed Reclaim < 6,653 15m body close < 6,653 → retest fails (6,653–6,658 caps) → sell 6,651–6,654 on the fail. SL: above fail-wick +0.50–1.00. TPs: 6,638–6,643 → 6,624.75–6,627.25 → 6,611.5–6,618. Back above 6,658 on 5m = invalidate. Management (all plays) First-touch priority; TP1 ≥ 2.0R gate using the 15m-anchored hard SL; no partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70% and set runner to BE; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits; max 2 attempts per level per session. Fundamentals to respect (London → U.S. a.m.) Bank of England MPC decision & minutes — Thu 12:00 BST (07:00 ET). High-impact for indices/GBP; often injects vol into London PM/NY open. UK ONS releases — Thu 09:30 BST (04:30 ET) (e.g., housing affordability & Business Insights this week). Moderate. U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims — Thu 08:30 ET (every Thursday; schedule page). • Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey — Thu 08:30 ET. • EIA Natural Gas Storage — Thu 10:30 ET.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Gold — Fed Cut Fade: Overextended, Eyeing a ThrowbackGold — Fed Cut Fade: Overextended, Eyeing a Throwback 🎯 Gold ripped higher into the FOMC, but the 25 bp cut was fully priced in. Post-decision, we saw the classic whipsaw — down → up → slow fade into the close. With the dollar and real yields catching a bid, the metal looks due for digestion before the next leg. Technicals (4h) Overextended run: Vertical leg higher with no real basing. Supply zone: Sellers showed up around 3.71–3.75k. Volume magnet: Confluence of the broken trendline + HVN sits down at ~3.41k. Thin profile: Gap between 3.52 → 3.41k leaves room for a fast move lower if momentum flips. Trade Idea Short bias: Fading the 3.71–3.74k zone or on breakdown acceptance below 3.69k. Stop: Above 3.76k (invalidation). Target: 3.41k (major HVN + retest zone). Macro Context The Fed’s move matches expectations. With positioning stretched and “buy the rumor / sell the news” in play, near-term risk is for a pullback. Medium term, the trend stays bullish if easing continues and real yields drift lower. Not financial advice — just sharing the setup I’m watching. #Gold #GC1 #Futures #ShortSetup #VolumeProfile #FOMC
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Orange Juice Futures (ICE) – Long Trade SetupDirection: Long Bias Contract: Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (OJ / ICE US) Current Price: ~268.95 🔍 Technical Setup Price has found strong support around the 240–260 zone, aligning with long-term trendline support. EMA20 is stabilizing, hinting at a potential shift in momentum after a sharp correction. Structure suggests a rebound move with upside toward the 350–400 zone (previous support-turned-resistance). Risk is clearly defined with support just below the recent lows. 📊 Fundamentals & Sentiment Supply shock remains in play: Brazil’s citrus belt is under severe strain from citrus greening disease (HLB), with nearly half of orchards infected. 2024/25 production fell to multi-decade lows, leaving Brazilian OJ stocks near “technical zero.” Demand resilience: While high prices have pressured some consumers, global demand for NFC and premium juice has stayed firm. Weather risk: Brazil’s 2025/26 crop outlook is uncertain — drought and heat remain threats. 🧾 COT Positioning Speculators: Net long positioning indicates a bullish tilt, reflecting continued interest in upside exposure. Commercials: Hedgers are active on the short side, but this is typical for producers locking in higher prices. Interpretation: With speculators holding long exposure and commercials hedging into strength, the structure supports a bullish bias from a positioning standpoint. 🎯 Trade Plan Strategy Stats: My long setups have a 70% win rate and average +11% gain. Entry Zone: Current levels (~265–270) on confirmation of support holding. Target 1: 350 Target 2: 400+ (if momentum extends) ⚠️ Risks Strong rebound in Brazilian production (2025/26 season) could ease supply stress. Demand destruction if consumers continue to balk at higher prices. Large speculator long unwinds could trigger a sharp correction. ✅ Conclusion With supply tightness, disease risk, and speculators maintaining long exposure, the Orange Juice market is primed for a bullish rebound from strong support. My system favors a long entry here, targeting 350–400, with a 70% historical profitability rate on similar setups.
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by AlphaTurtle
GOLD price exceeds 3,700 USD, market waits for Fed decisionThe spot price of OANDA:XAUUSD has officially surpassed the $3,700/ounce mark, setting a new record. The main reason comes from the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this week. In addition, news that the Trump administration is considering imposing additional tariffs on imported auto parts has further boosted gold's status as a safe haven. Current context: the global economy remains unstable, geopolitical tensions have not cooled down. The US dollar is weakening, falling to its lowest level since July, making gold more attractive. However, some investors have taken advantage of the opportunity to take profits ahead of the important Fed meeting on Wednesday. Since the beginning of the year, gold has increased by more than 40% thanks to: • The risk of a trade war, especially from US tax policy. • Demand for gold from central banks, especially in emerging markets. • A weak dollar and the possibility of further interest rate cuts. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors are almost certain that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points, although there is still a (small) chance that the Fed will cut by 50 basis points. Personally, I will continue to lean towards the upward trend of gold prices since the beginning of this year because gold has benefited from the low interest rate environment, making gold – which does not yield – more attractive. In addition, with President Trump publicly urging the Fed to “loosen aggressively”, the market is expecting a series of new interest rate cuts to be opened in the near future. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold briefly crossed the $3,700 mark in yesterday's US session, but then pulled back slightly. Currently, the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level is the nearest support level, if the recovery from this $3,677 support level brings gold back to work above the $3,700 base point, this will be the most suitable condition for a new continued bullish cycle, and the target then is around $3,722 in the short term. The 3,722 USD level is the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, in which the signal for a possible correction to the downside has not appeared in terms of momentum. The RSI maintains its activity in the overbought area, but it is mostly moving sideways in this area, indicating that the market forces (profit taking/selling) are insignificant. A momentum signal for a possible correction to the downside is the RSI folding down below the 80 mark with a significant slope. In case gold is sold below the 3,677 USD mark, it may fall further to retest the 3,645 USD mark, but the trend and the main bullish conditions will remain unchanged. Finally, the bullish trend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following positions. Support: 3,677 – 3,645 USD Resistance: 3,700 – 3,722 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3729 - 3727⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3735 →Take Profit 1 3721 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3715 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3653 - 3655⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3649 →Take Profit 1 3661 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3667
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD hits new all-time high, watch out for FedOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise sharply, renewing all-time highs, currently trading around 3,678 USD/oz. Gold rose thanks to the weak Dollar and US Treasury yields. In addition, there was new news about Trump's tariffs. The US plans to add steel and aluminum derivatives to the tariff list. Trade uncertainty has contributed to the increase in gold prices. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY fell 0.3% on Monday and is now down another 0.11% at 97.235, hitting a one-week low, and the 10-year Treasury yield also weakened, reflecting that investors are preparing for a possible rate cut ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated meeting this week. The weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive because of the inverse correlation between the two assets. Regarding Trump's tariffs, according to a notice issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Monday, the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has established a process to include additional steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope authorized by President Trump under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The notice said the filing period for the September 2025 period has begun. The filing period will begin on September 15, 2025, and end at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on September 29, 2025. Traders are gearing up for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on September 16-17. Expectations for a rate cut are high, and as a result, US Treasury yields fell sharply on Monday. Gold prices are reflecting the restart of the Fed's easing cycle amid mixed data. Inflation remains high, but a revised jobs report last Tuesday showed that job growth from April 2024 to March 2025 was overestimated by 911,000, raising concerns about a labor market downturn. As a result, last week’s data and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s abrupt change of heart at the Jackson Hole symposium in late August have opened the door to a 25 basis point rate cut. However, few still expect the Fed to cut by 50 basis points. Along with their decision, Fed officials will also release their latest economic projections and a “dot plot” of interest rates, in which the committee charts the future path of the federal funds rate. Investors will be watching U.S. retail sales data on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, which could shape gold’s price direction ahead of the Fed’s decision. Focus on Federal Reserve Decision The Federal Reserve will meet this week under unusually heavy pressure as US President Trump seeks greater influence over monetary policy and the Senate clears a seat for White House economic adviser Milan to join the rate-setting committee in time for a vote at its policy meeting on Wednesday. On Monday, Trump tweeted that he was calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut the benchmark interest rate “much more aggressively,” and hinted at the need for more aggressive monetary easing, citing the housing market as an example. This came just ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and see a 5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) FedWatch tool. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to renew its all-time high, surpassing the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level noted by readers in the previous issue. And now, it is likely to continue towards the full price level of $3,700 with all the technical indicators in place. The RSI is operating in the overbought area (80-100) but has not shown any signal for a possible price decrease, a signal for a corrective price decrease is when the RSI bends down below 80. Therefore, in terms of momentum, gold remains very resilient. The short-term trend is highlighted by the price channel, while the main support is from the EMA21. As long as gold remains above the raw price point of $3,600, the main technical outlook in the short-term is bullish, the dips should only be viewed as a short-term correction or a new buying opportunity. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold will be highlighted again by the following positions. Support: $3,677 – $3,645 Resistance: $3,700 – $3,722 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3699 - 3697⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3703 →Take Profit 1 3691 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3685 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3645 - 3647⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3641 →Take Profit 1 3653 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3659
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
BTC Short Update - First Entry Point Hit Hi all, we have hit the first entry level on this trade idea again, and I will provide you with updated numbers. First of all - to those asking “why” this would happen - please see my related idea on DXY as well as Blackrock. For those asking “how” it’s possible, please see my tutorial on drawing heatmaps and understanding how bitcoin moves. For those following my ideas, I explain order block analysis, my theory on how Bitcoin moves, and here we have a trading plan compiling it all together. In theory, these drops should happen very quickly - as I explain the technicals of it in the order block tutorials. Entry - 116,300 to 116,800 Stop Loss - (Can be lowered to 118,000) Targets: 1) 90,000 2) 62,000 3) 38,000 After the third target we will likely rise to 86,000-88,000 area - however the short may be held all the way to 8,000. 88,000 is a major bearish trendline - I expect this will break, we will form a 3 wave corrective pattern and rise back up to retest this level. 4) 20,000 (Potential bottom 18,000) 5) 10,000 God speed and happy trading.
Short
by DickDandy
27
Gold Futures – Short Setup to Lock in Profits🟠 Gold Futures – Short Setup to Lock in Profits Gold has had a strong breakout above the symmetrical triangle and has now pushed into an extended move near $3,700+. While the trend remains bullish on the higher timeframe, the current leg looks overextended, and I’m looking to hedge profits with a short setup. 🔑 Key Technicals Pattern Breakout: Gold broke out of a long consolidation wedge and accelerated higher. Resistance Zone: Price is testing the Fib 1.618 extension near $3,750, a potential exhaustion area. Volume Profile: Strong demand zone sits between $3,300 – $3,360 where most volume is concentrated. A pullback could retest this area. Risk-Reward: Setup gives ~1:3.4 RR with stop above recent highs and target into the HVN zone. 📉 Trade Idea – Protective Short Entry: 3750 Stop Loss: 3800 (extension level). Take Profit: $3580 ⚖️ Strategy This is not a reversal call – the larger trend is still bullish. The short setup is hedge/profit-protection only, aiming to capture a pullback after the parabolic leg. I’ll be watching if buyers can defend $3,600 on the first dip; failure to hold could accelerate selling toward the high-volume zone. 📊 Bias Short-term: Bearish (pullback expected) Mid-term: Neutral to Bullish (trend intact above $3,300) What do you think – do we see a healthy correction here, or is gold too strong to fade yet?
COMEX:GC1!
by JoshuaDanford