Soubean Futures Bearish outlookAfter seeing such a steep recent decline I started looking for signs of a bullish bounce. Unfortunately, it looks brutal:
1. recently retraced more than 100% of previous up-move, which indicated additional consolidation / correction is needed.
2. While it is a little messy, I can make out a 5 wave down move from the 2012 highs. This would mean we are likely only slightly over half-way in the current correction.
3. The symmetrical triangle is also likely part of primary wave B (which often takes the form of a triangle) and it indicates continuation in this case.
If there wasn't significant selling pressure then wave (C) would normally surpass (A). The move could go to $270 if the primary wave C meets a 1:1 extension of wave A. If I end up trading this I will lock in profits along the way in case primary wave C doesn't meet a 1:1 extension.
I am not a financial professional. This is a 100% technical analysis and has not considered any fundamental factors. I prefer to present both views normally, but if there is a bullish case I can't see it from the price action alone.
Futuresmarket
Platinum Futures Elliott Wave AnalysisI'm new to commodities and relatively new to Technical Analysis. No associated fundamental Analysis has been undertaken on Platinum.
This analysis is shared simply to further my own education and hopefully someone will appreciate it.
US Majors setting up for a massive upside rallyMy analysis shows the US majors are setting up for a massive upside rally over the next 3~7 weeks. Many people are freaked out about the market's recent decline, yet this is just the type of price rotation that the market needs to advance higher. Failure to achieve new price lows will result in a massive price reversal driving prices much higher. Watch as new price highs are attempted within 3~7 weeks.
ICEUS JULY COFFEE : THE MARKET IS PREPARING FOR A MAJOR RALLYBullish diagonal triangle formation + P/O divergence
Be prepared for a significant rally.
Clear close above the upper bound
will confirm it.
ES1! - TESTING 0.382 FIB RETRACEHere we have a 45 min chart of the ES1!.
The ES1! rebounded nicely yesterday fueled by a 45 min squeeze firing off to the long side late in the day.
The ES1! is now testing the 0.382 Fib retrace level of the 3/13 high to the 3/23 low retrace.
If it fails to break through this resistance level, look for a reversal to the downside.
Also note that a 45 min squeeze is once again active.
The direction that this squeeze fires off will add to the momentum of the price movement coming off of the 0.382 Fib retrace level.
Happy Trading!
~KP
BTC Update 13032018 + Lesson on futuresG'day Cobbers,
It seems my posts are being hidden by tradeview for a breach in house rules, I guess my affiliate link is pushing the friendship a little too far, my bad. Who would of thought I would get censored after paying $60 buckaroos a month and spreading free education and trade ideas. Any way moving on.
After a little bullrun last night we had our what seems daily drop, it is looking very bearish on the higher time frame charts, weekly closed out red and the new week has continued on with said trend down. Daily we have a clear bear flag /pennant formed and while we are green as we approach the end of the structure, bear flags are bearish and generally break down, not always though, so keep watch. We may still have another push towards the top of the structure before tomorrow, If we can close green today it would be a positive move towards ending this run.
Now for a little education cobbers,
When we are looking at the shorts vs long contracts above, people tend to think that if the shorts are outnumbering the longs that it is a positive sign towards a bear run, not so. What people tend to not understand is that for a future contract to be made, you need a long and a short position on each side, so no matter how many contracts there are, there is always an equal amount of short vs longs, what changes os how many contacts (value) is held by each position. So when shorts outnumber longs by a large majority , it mean few people have all the contracts spread across their positions and the longs have less contracts per position/person. Think about that for a moment, the big money, the multi-million dollar positions are long but the masses with much smaller contracts vs position is short. In this situation who do you think s in the better position? Big players can manipulate this market, the got these large position sizes by smart trading. Also with so many short position open, it gives massive liquidity for a long bull run, especially when the masses are entrenched in theory bear position, ending u trapped and then selling when pain gets to much and adding to the liquidity for the bull run.
So be aware of this factor, as well as volume and price action. A good habit is to watch on three time frames, dependent on your trading style, you could trade 1 day, 1 hour and 15mins, treat your daily as the tide, hourly as the waves and the 15mins as the ripples. Daily gives you the main trend direction (tide), use the hourly to ride the waves for shorter term trading while riding the tide and the ripples to help your entry and exit positions.
Give me a follow and we can delve deeper into these ideas at another stage and please share and like.
G'day
Thanks for dropping by, hopefully you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.
Trader, Chart analyst and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.
Silver READY TO LAUNCH Look.... Poor Silver has been manipulated for years... but that's okay.. Cheap $silver for us right??
Better hurry up and stack as much as possible cause things will change quick...!
Silver is completely off the radar to most investors,
it will turn out to be one of the best investments to own as the massive amount of leverage in the stock and real estate market evaporates...
March 26th: China Petro Gold Backed Yuan Starts Trading on this date. No more Petrodollar...
Source: www.zerohedge.com
The last 7 years... JP Morgan has accumulated over 130 million ounces of $Silver bullion. HMM
Source: www.zerohedge.com
We look at how many net short contracts there are,
Source: seekingalpha.com
It is super undervalued compared to other metals, Palladium, Platinum, Gold.
It is artificiality cheap due to manipulation.
Silver indeed is true wealth. EVERYONE should have some bullion with them.
-Luke
Intact down trend in Crude OilLower highs and lower lows. A possible short trade could have its stop loss at the last high.
Gold-Silver-RatioIt is always worth a look at the gold-silver ratio. Currently, gold is 76 times more expensive than silver (per ounce). In the past, it has been shown that the area above 78 is an extreme area and can be used for trades. In this case, you would sell gold and buy silver.
Sugar as a speculative longSugar is in a very interesting area. The level of 13 has already worked several times as support or resistance. Add to this the CoT data, which indicates rising prices. Sugar is also supported by a potential trend line.
Learn more about the technical analysis, the CoT data and the futures markets in our premium service.
Cocoa is facing a strong supportIt is worth taking a look at cocoa. The price is approaching an important support at 1800. In addition, the CoT Report indicates rising prices.
You will learn more about these and other analyzes in our premium service .
Head and Shoulders Formation in Natural GasLooking at the 1D chart for Natural Gas Futures, right about now you can see the formation of a head and shoulders. The left shoulder and the head are already formed, now it's just a matter of seeing where the right shoulder goes. I remain neutral on this setup because I am waiting on an inflection movement either up or down.
If it breaks the resistance from the left shoulder, Natural Gas Futures could test the highs of the the head (around 4.00). However, if it breaks down at this resistance level, I would then go short with a stop loss at 3.35 after seeing confirmation of downward trend. Then, for my profit target, I would look at first taking profits in 2.80, and then set my next profit target for 2.60.
All the best,
RC
