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SOLUSD - The $130 Accumulation Zone: Why This Dip Is A GiftJack Of All Trades SOL Analysis with AI Trading Mentor + AI Whale Bot Analysis 📈 The Setup - What My AI Trading Mentor & Whale Bot Just Found Current Price: $132.52 | Date: December 5, 2025 I've been analyzing the SOL chart with my AI trading mentor for the past 48 hours, and simultaneously tracking whale movements with my custom whale bot. What we discovered is absolutely insane. While retail traders are panic-selling this -4.58% dip, whales and institutions are accumulating like it's 2020 all over again. And they know something the market doesn't. Let me show you what's REALLY happening behind the scenes. 🔎 The Whale Bot Discovery - $56M Accumulation (72 Hours Ago) My whale tracking bot flagged something MASSIVE on December 2, 2025: 439,938 SOL left Coinbase Institutional for an unknown wallet —that's $56 MILLION moved in a SINGLE transaction. This wasn't panic selling. This was strategic accumulation. The movement intensified discussions around accumulation rather than short-term distribution, strengthening confidence that whales anticipate a Solana reversal while the market remains compressed . But here's where it gets REALLY interesting... The Whale Pattern That Changes Everything: My AI trading mentor analyzed the historical whale behavior on SOL, and here's what we found: $88M whale accumulation in 3 days back in early November 13 institutions injected $1.72B into Solana treasuries (1.44% of total supply!) $39.65M negative netflow (coins LEAVING exchanges) Translation? Whales are REMOVING supply from the market while retail panics about the -4.58% dip. Historical data shows whale accumulation drove Solana's 132% Q3 price rebound. We're seeing THE EXACT SAME PATTERN right now at $130. 🚨 The December 2 Event NOBODY is Talking About While everyone was watching SOL dump from $148 to $132, something HISTORIC happened on December 2, 2025: Vanguard, the $11 TRILLION asset manager, opened Solana ETFs to 50M+ clients starting December 2. Let me repeat that: $11 TRILLION. Vanguard reversed its anti-crypto stance, enabling clients to trade Solana ETFs and mutual funds. The firm cited crypto ETFs' resilience during volatility and mature compliance frameworks as key factors. Why This is BIGGER Than You Think: Bitcoin ETFs brought in $100 billion in institutional capital after approval. Sol ana is now getting the SAME treatment. Polymarket shows 91% chance of Solana ETF approval by December 31, 2025 with volume of $178,356 betting on this outcome. But here's the kicker that my AI trading mentor caught: Solana spot ETFs saw $13.55M net outflow on December 1, BUT Bitwise's BSOL ETF had $17.18M INFLOW. What does this mean? Retail is selling. Institutions are buying. Classic wealth transfer setup. 📊 Technical Analysis - The Falling Wedge Nobody's Seeing My AI trading mentor ran the technicals, and here's what the chart is SCREAMING: Pattern: Falling Wedge (BULLISH Reversal) Historical breakout rate: 75% upward Current compression: Tightest it's been in 3 months Breakout target: $145-165 range CoinGecko's 7-day view shows Solana bouncing from a low near $126.75 on Tuesday to about $141.65, with today's move alone adding roughly $14.64 in 24 hours . That bounce happened EXACTLY when? December 3 ONE DAY after Vanguard opened SOL ETFs. Key Technical Levels: 🟢 SUPPORT (Buy Zones): $128-$135: Current FVG + falling wedge lower boundary $120-$125: $120 long-term support zone that has acted as major line in sand for nearly two years $105-110: Nuclear capitulation zone (10% probability) 🔴 RESISTANCE (Profit-Taking Zones): $145-$150: Recent highs + wedge breakout target $165-$175: Institutional FOMO zone $195-$210: Path to new ATH becomes clear Why This Setup is INSANE: WTI trading around $59.20, caught between converging trend lines squeezing price action over past few weeks. Break above triangle resistance could trigger rally. Wait, that's oil. Let me correct that—SOL is showing the EXACT same compression pattern. SOL is still about 57% below its all-time high of $295.83 and is only recently rebounding from key $120 long-term support zone. Risk/Reward from $132: 🎯 The Fundamental Catalysts Stack CATALYST #1: Vanguard Opens The Floodgates Vanguard's $11T AUM provides unprecedented retail and institutional access. But here's what my AI trading mentor calculated: If just 0.1% of Vanguard's AUM flows into SOL ETFs, that's $11 BILLION in buying pressure. Current SOL market cap? $79 billion. That would be 14% of the entire market cap as NEW demand. What would that do to price? You do the math. CATALYST #2: Institutions Are Going ALL-IN 13 institutions injected $1.72B into Solana treasuries, leveraging 7-8% staking yields. But here's the part that blew my mind: Sharps Technology and Upexi Inc. lead this trend, allocating $445.4M and $260M, respectively. These aren't crypto-native firms. These are TRADITIONAL COMPANIES moving into SOL. FalconX and Wintermute purchased 44,000 SOL worth $8.3M on October 26, 2025, and since April have accumulated 844,000 SOL worth $149M. Pattern? Institutional accumulation is ACCELERATING, not slowing. CATALYST #3: The ETF Approval Timeline 92 crypto spot ETFs covering about 24 different coins are queued at the SEC, with majority of single-asset ETFs like those for Solana, with most final decision deadlines falling in October. Wait, October already passed. What happened? As of November 13, two Solana ETFs have started trading: Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) and Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL). SOL ETFs are ALREADY LIVE! JPMorgan expects Solana ETFs to see about $1.5B in first-year inflows. That's $1.5B of guaranteed buying pressure over the next 12 months. CATALYST #4: Network Fundamentals Are INSANE According to Electric Capital, Solana ranked second only to Ethereum for new developer inflows in 2025, attracting over 11,500 new developers—an annual growth of 29.1%. More developers = More dApps = More users = Higher demand for SOL. Solana stays fast and low-cost, with high throughput and low latency. The ecosystem keeps growing: active developers, expanding DeFi, busy NFT markets, and new games. And here's the technical edge: SIMD-0256 activation in July 2025 increased block capacity 25% to 60M compute units, with Alpenglow consensus testing targeting 150ms finality vs current 12 seconds. Translation: SOL is getting FASTER and MORE SCALABLE while demand explodes. 🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Precise Entry & Risk Management Alright, enough theory. Here's EXACTLY how to trade this setup based on my AI trading mentor's analysis and whale bot signals. 🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY SOLUSD Entry Zone: $128 - $138 (SCALE IN) Position Sizing: Scale in strategy: $135-138 (if no further dip) $130-133 (current level) $125-128 (if we get final flush to wedge support) Stop Loss: $118 (HARD STOP, NON-NEGOTIABLE) Below $118 = breaks 2-year support + wedge pattern Below this = whale accumulation thesis INVALID Max loss: 11% from average entry at $132 Take Profit Targets: TP1: $145-$150 (Probability: 80%) TP2: $165-$175 (Probability: 60%) Vanguard ETF inflows + institutional FOMO Analysts project potential of $225 by year-end assuming favorable conditions TP3: $195-$210 (Probability: 40%) Full ETF momentum + breaks 2025 resistance CryptoPredictions sees price ranging between $197.29 and $290.13 for December 2025 MOONSHOT: $250-$300 (Probability: 20%) InvestingHaven expects SOL to hit $300 in 2025, likely around summer Market confidence shows 99% odds favoring approval with DATs accumulating $2B SOL. Entry Confirmation Checklist (AI Trading Mentor Approved): Before entering, CHECK THESE: ✅ Price holding above $128 (wedge support) ✅ Whale bot showing CONTINUED exchange outflows (check daily) ✅ Volume spike on bounce (5M+ SOL volume on daily candle) ✅ RSI showing bullish divergence (price lower low, RSI higher low) ✅ No surprise negative ETF news (check daily) ✅ Bitcoin holding above $95K (macro support) WAIT FOR 4/6 CONFIRMATIONS BEFORE FULL POSITION Weekly Monitoring (WHALE BOT TRACKING): Check EVERY DAY : Whale exchange flows: Continued outflows = bullish ETF inflow data: Monitor BSOL, GSOL inflows weekly Vanguard adoption: Any announcements of client uptake Developer activity: Check GitHub commits (growth = bullish) Bitcoin correlation: If BTC crashes 10%+, reduce SOL 30-50% 5. Emergency Exit Conditions: ❌ Close below $118 on daily = EXIT ALL IMMEDIATELY ❌ Whale bot shows $100M+ exchange INFLOWS = reduce 50% ❌ ETF approval rejected/delayed = EXIT 50%, trail rest ❌ Bitcoin crashes below $85K = reduce exposure 30-50% ❌ Major SOL network outage = EXIT ALL (hasn't happened in 2+ years but still a risk) ⚠️ The Bear Case - What Could Go WRONG I'm bullish, but my AI trading mentor taught me: ALWAYS know your bear case. Bear Scenario #1: ETF Approval Delayed (30% Probability) What happens: Polymarket shows 91% approval odds , but what if SEC delays again? Impact: Drop to $105-115 range Counter: Two Solana ETFs already trading (BSOL, GSOL), approval momentum is REAL My take: Even if delayed, whales keep buying = floor at $120 Bear Scenario #2: Whale Distribution Begins (25% Probability) What happens: Whale DYzF92 dumped 33,366 SOL ($4.71M) at a loss recently Impact: If more whales follow, drop to $110-120 Counter: 439,938 SOL accumulation outweighs the 33K dump by 13X My take: One whale selling ≠ trend. NET whale flow is BULLISH. Bear Scenario #3: Bitcoin Macro Collapse (20% Probability) What happens: If BTC crashes to $70K, SOL follows to $90-100 Impact: Full portfolio drawdown Counter: SOL correlation with BTC is strong, but institutional buying provides support My take: Monitor BTC. If breaks $90K, cut SOL exposure 50%. My Risk Assessment: Bears need: ETF delay + whale selling + BTC collapse Bulls need: ETF momentum + Vanguard inflows + $120 holds Current probability: 70% bull, 30% bear Even if bears win short-term, downside limited to $105-110 (Vanguard/whale floor). But upside? $195-250+ (institutional FOMO). 🔥 The Bottom Line - Why This is THE Trade Let me summarize everything: The Setup (December 5, 2025): SOL at $132 = 2-year support + falling wedge bottom $56M whale buy December 2 (3 days ago!) Vanguard opens SOL ETFs December 2 (2 days ago!) Already bounced $126→$141 this week 91% ETF approval odds by Q1 2026 The Catalysts: Vanguard effect: $11T AUM now has SOL access Institutional buying: $1.72B in treasuries, 13 institutions long Whale accumulation: $88M in 3 days + $56M Dec 2 Developer growth: 11,500 new devs Network upgrades: 25% capacity increase + 150ms finality coming What The Market is Missing: Everyone sees: -4.58% dip = bearish Whales see: Perfect accumulation zone before Vanguard money flows in Despite strong rebound, Indonesian exchange Pintu notes Solana is still about 57% below its all-time high of $295.83. That's not a bug. That's a FEATURE. We have 57% room to run back to ATH, and we're sitting at 2-year support with $11 TRILLION in new capital about to enter through Vanguard. 🎯 Action Plan - What To Do RIGHT NOW IF YOU'RE BULLISH (Recommended by AI Trading Mentor): Set Alerts: Alert at $128 (aggressive buy - wedge support test) Alert at $133 (current - scale in point) Alert at $138 (last entry before breakout) Alert at $145 (take profit trigger) IF YOU'RE BEARISH: Wait for: Close above $150 with volume (breakout confirmed) Then enter on $145-148 retest Safer but worse risk/reward IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL: Allocate 3-4% of portfolio (half position) Enter at $130-135 only Take profits at $155 (+19%) This is the "I believe but I'm cautious" play Final Thoughts - The Truth About This Setup My AI trading mentor has analyzed thousands of setups. Here's what I KNOW for certain on December 5, 2025: ✅ 439,938 SOL ($56M) removed from Coinbase Dec 2 ✅ Vanguard ($11T) opened SOL ETFs Dec 2 ✅ 13 institutions hold $1.72B SOL (1.44% supply) ✅ 91% ETF approval odds on Polymarket ✅ $120 support held for 2 years ✅ Falling wedge = 75% break upward historically ✅ $100B flowed into BTC after ETF approval Here's what I DON'T know: Will Vanguard inflows start immediately or take months? Will whales keep accumulating or start distributing? Will BTC hold or crash? Drop a 🟣 if you're buying SOL at $130-135. Drop a 🤖 if you're using AI to refine and help guide you with setups like this. Drop a 🐋 if you're following whale accumulation. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $
CRYPTO:SOLUSDLong
by officialjackofalltrades
1
Bitcoin - $95.000 before a correction?Bitcoin finds itself at an important turning point once again after a sharp decline followed by a strong recovery. In this update, we will cover the reaction to the previous 4H bearish FVG, the newly formed 4H FVG inversion acting as support, the next resistance level around 95,000 dollars, and the recent liquidity sweep. 4H Bearish FVG Inversion Two days ago, BTC made a strong downward move that reversed a large part of the earlier rally and collected deep liquidity beneath local lows. During this drop, a clear 4H bearish FVG was formed, acting as a supply zone. Yesterday, however, BTC reclaimed this entire FVG with conviction: the price broke through it and closed multiple candles above the zone. This shift flips the area from supply into demand, meaning the former bearish FVG has now transformed into a 4H FVG inversion. The green box on the chart now represents the primary support zone, ideally holding during any pullback. 4H Bearish FVG Around $95,000 Above the current price lies the next 4H bearish FVG around roughly 95,000 dollars, aligning with a previous consolidation and distribution phase. This region acts as strong resistance and is the next logical magnet for the ongoing recovery move. As long as the FVG inversion beneath price holds, it is reasonable to expect BTC to gradually move toward the 95k area. A clear reaction is likely once this zone is reached—ranging from a brief rejection and sideways consolidation to a potentially larger reversal if sellers become aggressive again. Liquidity Sweep Recently, BTC briefly pushed above a local high and pulled back immediately afterward, creating a clear liquidity sweep on the chart. This move wiped out the stops of late shorts as well as breakout longs but did not yet lead to immediate continuation to the upside. After such a sweep, the question becomes whether the market can gather enough buyers to fuel the next impulse toward the higher FVG, or whether price will first drop back toward the inversion support to gather liquidity there. The reaction at current levels will therefore provide important insight into short-term direction. Conclusion Because of today’s liquidity sweep, a direct correction from the current price is very possible, especially if short-term traders take profit after the strong bounce. However, the base scenario remains that BTC could still make one more push upward toward the 4H bearish FVG around 95,000 dollars, where a more significant reaction is expected. Such a move would fit perfectly within a structure where resistance is tested first, followed by a pullback to retest the new inversion support—confirming whether the recent reversal has real strength behind it. ------------------------- Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Long
by Youriverse
49
ETHUSD – The Calm Before the Storm | December's Most Misundersto📈 Market Context – Why Everyone's Wrong About ETH Right Now Ethereum is sitting at one of the most deceptive price levels in crypto right now. Most traders see the recent dump from $3,762 on December 2 and think "it's over." Others see the consolidation around $3,208 and think "dead cat bounce." They're both missing the bigger picture. Here's what ACTUALLY happened: A 2015 Ethereum ICO wallet that had been inactive for a long time moved 40,000 ETH suddenly, worth around $120 million. Crypto Twitter panicked. But then Lookonchain verified that it was for internal transfer, and not a liquidation. Classic FUD. What REALLY tanked ETH? A Yearn Finance exploit that happened at the worst possible time, when the market was stretched by leverage and rising speculative positioning. More than $600 million in crypto liquidations hit the market. This wasn't an organic selloff—this was a leveraged washout. But here's the kicker: While retail was panic-selling, whales were accumulating like it's 2020 all over again. 🔎 Technical Framework – The Deceptive Calm Current State: Ascending broadening wedge inside rising channel—classic volatility compression before explosive move Key Liquidity Zones: 🔴 Distribution Liquidity Zone (SHORT Opportunity): $3,550 - $3,650 (recent spike high + whale distribution cluster) This is where whales moved 40,000 ETH at $120 million valuation before the "transfer" narrative Since December 2024, aggressive selling by whales has been evident in the rise of average market order sizes 🟢 Accumulation Liquidity Zone (BUY ORIGIN): $2,900 - $3,000 (FVG retest + November-December whale buy zone) From November 13 to December 2, whales acquired a total of 1,702,835.5 ETH at an average price of $5.7 billion In early 2025, large holders acquired over 330,000 ETH, valued at approximately $1.08 billion ⚖️ Chop Zone (NO TRADE ZONE): $3,100 - $3,400 (current consolidation limbo) This struggle between institutional investors and retail traders could define Ethereum's price action in the coming weeks 🐋 WHALE ACTIVITY – The REAL Story Nobody's Talking About While everyone's focused on the dump, let me show you what the ACTUAL data says: The Accumulation Phase (That Everyone Missed): Ethereum whale wallets have recorded positive netflows in each of the last 20 trading days, dating back to November 13 The highest single-day inflows of 2570 ETH came on November 14 when Gensler's exit was confirmed Ethereum ETFs attracted $2.63 billion in inflows in December 2024, led by the Fidelity Ethereum Trust The Concentration Effect (This is MASSIVE): Over the past four months, Ethereum's Gini coefficient increased from 0.7563 in September to 0.7630 in December 2024—a clear sign of growing ownership concentration. Translation? Whales are consolidating control. Even crazier: Addresses holding 10,000+ ETH now control 74.47% of Ethereum's circulating supply. Compare that to Bitcoin where large holders control only about 15%—ETH is FIVE TIMES more whale-controlled than BTC. This is why ETH moves are so violent and why large transfers or sales by a tiny fraction of holders can rapidly sway Ethereum's price and sentiment. The Distribution Signal: But here's where it gets interesting: Since December 2024, there has been an increase in aggressive sell orders, particularly from whales, with rising average market order sizes suggesting they are offloading holdings. So what gives? Are whales accumulating or distributing? BOTH. They're accumulating at discount levels ($2,900-$3,050) and distributing at premium levels ($3,550-$3,650). This is classic smart money behavior—they're range-trading the volatility while retail gets chopped. 🚨 Recent Developments – The Catalyst Stack Pectra Upgrade – May 7, 2025 (GAME CHANGER) The Pectra upgrade went live in May 2025, introducing batch transactions, gas payment in any token, and doubling blob capacity for Layer 2s. Key improvements: Account Abstraction enables gas payments using multiple tokens like USDC and DAI, with third-party fee sponsorship EIP-7691 doubles Ethereum's blob throughput from three blobs with a maximum of six to six with a maximum of nine With the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum's data capacity significantly increases to about 420 TPS from 210 TPS Translation: ETH just became TWICE as fast for Layer 2s. This is MASSIVE for scalability and will drive institutional adoption. ETF Inflows – The Silent Accumulation Ethereum ETFs attracted substantial institutional interest, with inflows reaching $2.63 billion in December 2024. This is institutional money positioning for the next leg up—they don't buy at tops, they buy at bottoms. Gary Gensler Exit – Regulatory Tailwind The impending exit of SEC chairman Gary Gensler enhanced investor confidence in the altcoin sector, putting Ethereum in prime position to deliver superior performance relative to BTC. Staking Explosion Staking activity reached near-all-time highs, with 36.19 million ETH locked in validators—a 4.5% increase since October 2024. That's $115+ BILLION locked away, reducing circulating supply. DeFi TVL At $90 Billion Total Value Locked in Ethereum protocols surged to $90 billion, driven by renewed interest in yield-bearing DeFi products. Institutional money is FLOODING into ETH DeFi. 🎯 Trade Plans – High-Probability Setups 🟢 BUY ETHUSD: $2,900 - $3,000 | SL $2,820 Thesis: FVG retest at proven whale accumulation zone + November-December $5.7B whale buying cluster = institutional re-entry point Entry Rules (MUST WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION): Price dips into $2,900-$3,000 FVG zone Bullish CHoCH (Change of Character) + BOS (Break of Structure) on H1-H4 Strong bullish rejection wick with volume spike (100K+ ETH volume on 4H) Ideally on Order Block retest after initial bounce BONUS CONFIRMATION: Check whale netflow data on IntoTheBlock—if showing positive inflows, ADD to conviction Targets: $3,350 - $3,400 (mid-channel retest, quick 12-15% gain) $3,600 - $3,750 (previous high retest + distribution zone, 23-28% gain) $4,200 - $4,500 (bull flag breakout + Pectra FOMO begins, 42-50% gain) $5,200 - $5,800 (ATH retest + full bull market confirmation, 75-95% gain) Moonshot: $6,500+ (if ETF inflows accelerate post-Pectra like BTC did) Risk Management: Position size: 3-5% of portfolio (this is a HIGH-CONVICTION setup) Scale in 40% at $3,000, 30% at $2,950, 30% at $2,900 Trail stop to breakeven after hitting Target 1 Take 30% profit at Target 2, let rest ride with trailing stop 🔴 SELL ETHUSD: $3,550 - $3,650 | SL $3,750 Thesis: Premium liquidity retest at proven whale distribution zone—classic "return to scene of crime" before deeper correction Entry Rules (WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION): Price pumps into $3,550-$3,650 zone (previous spike high) Bearish CHoCH + MSS (Market Structure Shift) + BOS down on H1-H4 CRITICAL: Check CryptoQuant whale-to-exchange flow—if showing HIGH exchange inflows (whales moving ETH to exchanges to sell), this is your GO signal Heavy volume spike on bearish candle (150K+ ETH on 4H) Entry after FVG fill or Order Block retest post-initial rejection Targets: $3,200 - $3,250 (first support retest, quick 8-12% gain) $3,050 - $3,100 (mid-channel support) $2,900 - $3,000 (FVG zone—BUY setup reactivates here!) Risk Management: This is a COUNTER-TREND trade—use tighter stops Position size: 2-3% max (smaller than long setup due to higher risk) Take 50% profit at Target 1, move SL to breakeven Exit FULLY at Target 3 and flip to LONG setup ⚠️ Risk Management & Critical Notes The #1 Mistake: Trading inside the $3,100-$3,400 chop zone without confirmation. The struggle between institutional investors and retail traders in this range creates whipsaw conditions this is where retail accounts get DESTROYED. Whale Flow Monitoring is NON-NEGOTIABLE: High leverage remains with funding rates indicating very high risk-taking activities and markets still inclined towards speculative long positions. Use Glassnode or IntoTheBlock to monitor whale exchange inflows BEFORE entering trades. Volatility Warning: This concentrated ownership structure means large transfers or sales by a tiny fraction of holders can rapidly sway Ethereum's price. Set alerts for 10,000+ ETH whale movements on Whale Alert. Macro Headwind: Japan has indicated tightening, and U.S. real interest rates remain high. Under low liquidity conditions, even minor shocks can trigger significant price changes. If SPX dumps 5%+, ETH follows—be ready to cut positions. Position Sizing: Given the extreme whale concentration, never go all-in. Scale positions at key levels. This isn't a casino—it's warfare against billion-dollar players. 📊 The Bottom Line – Why This Time Is Different (Or Isn't) Let me give it to you straight: ETH is at a crossroads. The Bull Case (What I'm Leaning Toward): ✅ $5.7 billion in whale accumulation over 20 days since November 13 ✅ $2.63 billion in ETF inflows in December 2024 ✅ $90 billion TVL in DeFi protocols institutions are building ✅ Pectra upgrade doubled transaction throughput to 420 TPS ✅ 36.19 million ETH staked = reduced supply ✅ Gary Gensler gone = regulatory tailwind ✅ Technical structure: Rising channel still intact, FVG below = perfect retest setup The Bear Case (What Keeps Me Up at Night): ⚠️ Aggressive whale selling since December with rising average market order sizes ⚠️ Even as Bitcoin and Solana hit all-time highs after Trump's election, Ether topped out at $4,000 in December, well short of its 2021 high of $4,800 ⚠️ High leverage with funding rates indicating very high-risk speculative long positions ⚠️ Global liquidity tightening from Japan and high U.S. real interest rates ⚠️ 74.47% of supply controlled by whales = extreme manipulation risk ⚠️ Price underperforming BTC and SOL = capital rotation away from ETH My Take: The $5.7 billion whale accumulation since November 13 tells me smart money is positioning for a move. But the aggressive whale selling at premium levels tells me they're range-trading, not accumulating for a straight pump to $10K. Here's the play: Short-term (Dec-Jan): Expect consolidation with violent swings. Trade the range: buy $2,900-$3,000, sell $3,550-$3,650. Medium-term (Feb-April): After Pectra hype builds + ETF inflows accelerate, we get the push to $4,200-$4,800. Long-term (Mid-2025+): If ETH breaks $4,800 ATH with volume, we're going to $5,800-$7,000+. BUT: If ETH breaks below $2,850 with volume, the bull case is dead and we're heading to $2,600-$2,400 to fill lower FVGs. 🔥 Strategy Summary – How I'm Trading This Phase 1 (NOW - January): Wait for dip to $2,900-$3,000 FVG zone Scale in long position (3-5% of portfolio) Target: $3,600-$3,750 for 25-30% gain Take 30% profit, trail stop on rest Phase 2 (If we hit $3,600+): Watch whale exchange inflows If HIGH inflows (distribution signal) → SHORT at $3,550-$3,650 If LOW inflows (holding) → add to longs, target $4,200-$4,500 Phase 3 (Post-Pectra Hype, March-May): If ETH holds above $3,600 and Pectra adoption is strong → go HEAVY long Target: ATH breakout to $5,200-$5,800 This is the "generational wealth" move IF it plays out Invalidation: Close ALL longs if ETH closes below $2,850 on daily Flip bearish, target $2,600-$2,400 💡 Final Word – The Truth About ETH Right Now ETH isn't "dead." But it's not "mooning tomorrow" either. Critics have blasted developers' decision to focus on Layer 2 blockchains, arguing those chains siphon value from ETH. That's a real concern. ETH isn't pumping like BTC or SOL because value is flowing to L2s. But here's the counterargument: With the Pectra upgrade, this will double L2 performance out of the gate, leading to lower costs and faster transaction times. If L2s explode in adoption, ETH benefits as the base layer. It's like owning the toll road, not the cars. The Question: Will the $2.63 billion in ETF inflows and $5.7 billion in whale accumulation be enough to push ETH to new ATHs? Or will whale distribution at premium levels and high leverage markets cause another violent shakeout first? My bet: One more shakeout to $2,900-$3,000 (FVG retest), THEN the real pump begins. But I'm not holding through a breakdown below $2,850. That's where I cut and flip bearish. Trade the structure. Follow the whales. Protect your capital. Drop a 🔥 if you're watching that $2,900-$3,000 FVG like a hawk. This is where fortunes are made or lost.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by officialjackofalltrades
10
XRP — Major Macro Reversal Loading? XRP is completing a long-term structural pattern that has been developing for months. This setup includes a rounded top distribution, a full breakdown into major demand, and a potential reversal structure forming at the bottom. This idea outlines both bullish and bearish pathways based on higher-timeframe confluence. 🔍 1️⃣ Rounded Top Distribution Completed XRP formed a clear rounded top on the macro chart, with three major distribution points (highlighted). Each point shows diminishing momentum and repeated rejection from the declining macro trendline. This structure typically precedes: Liquidity sweep lower Long accumulation phase Then high-timeframe reversal We’re now entering the second phase. 🔍 2️⃣ Price Now Sitting in Major Higher-Timeframe Demand Price has dropped directly into a large daily/3D demand block that held all previous macro corrections. This zone aligns with: Old imbalance fills Breaker structure retest Long-term ascending trendline below (blue line) This is where macro buyers have stepped in before — and may do so again. 🔍 3️⃣ Bullish Scenario (Blue Path) If price confirms demand strength, the bullish pathway is: Sweep of local V-shaped liquidity Retest of micro trendline (white dashed) Break above the short-term breaker + FVG layer Move toward the $2.95–$3.10 area (macro rejection zone) This is the first major upside target. A full reclaim above this level opens the door for a much larger trend reversal. 🔍 4️⃣ Bearish Scenario (White Path) If demand fails, watch for: Deviation above micro resistance Rejection from FVG / breaker Breakdown of V-swing formation Deeper move toward long-term trendline support below This would create a deeper macro accumulation before any major bullish cycle. 🎯 Summary XRP is at a macro inflection point We have: Completed distribution Full retest of long-term demand Early signs of reversal structure Clear upside targets and invalidation levels This is a high-timeframe educational structure outlook, not a signal. 📘 Disclaimer This post is for educational purposes only and reflects personal market analysis. It is not financial advice or a trade signal. Always DYOR and manage your own risk.
Long
by Scaling_mastery
1
BTC — Trendline Rejection or Breakout? BTC is approaching a key structural decision point, and the next move will determine whether we see continuation upward or a corrective sweep to lower liquidity levels. This idea outlines both scenarios with clear targets and educational structure analysis. Key Structural Areas 1️⃣ Rising Trendline Support BTC continues to respect a clean ascending trendline. This line has been a major pivot for the past several days. Price is currently hovering just above it, and the yellow circle marks the confluence of: Rising trendline support A local demand block Prior liquidity sweep zone This is the most important area to watch for reaction. 2️⃣ Short-Term Rejection Scenario (White Path) Before breaking upward, BTC may show short-term downside rejection, targeting: ➡️ Short-Term Target: $88,180 This level aligns with: Demand block retest Trendline kiss Local inefficiencies needing fill A rejection into 88,180 would be normal and healthy before a potential bullish continuation. 3️⃣ Bullish Reclaim Scenario If price taps the rejection zone and reclaims the trendline, upside targets remain: $95,800 – $96,500 → Half-filled FVG + structural supply $99,500 – $100,200 → Major FVG + macro resistance zone These zones are where we expect strong reaction and profit-taking. 4️⃣ Breakdown Scenario If BTC fails the trendline with a full candle close below, expect: Breakdown of structure Full sweep of demand Deeper correction into mid-range levels Not my primary bias, but it's critical to acknowledge the possibility. Summary BTC is sitting on an important trendline. A quick rejection into 88,180 could be the liquidity grab needed before upside continuation. Reclaiming the trendline = bullish continuation toward FVGs. Breaking below = deeper corrective move. 📘 Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only. It represents personal opinion and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your own risk.
by Scaling_mastery
Bitcoin - Can the bulls break resistance?Bitcoin continues to stagnate after a strong sell-off. Market structure remains weak, and trading volume is declining as price keeps moving sideways within a tight range. Traders are uncertain about the next move, and both bulls and bears currently lack conviction. Overall sentiment is cool, with most attention focused on nearby resistance zones. Many eyes are on how BTC reacts to the current consolidation area. 4H Bearish FVG Just above the current price lies a clear bearish 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). This zone now acts as strong resistance. When BTC retests this area, a rejection is the most likely scenario. Only a breakout with strong volume would give bulls something to lean on. As long as this FVG holds, further downside remains the path of least resistance. 1H Timeframe The 1-hour timeframe shows ongoing consolidation and repeated struggles with the local 1H bearish FVG. Every attempt to break through this area is immediately rejected. As a result, the probability of BTC breaking to the downside increases, which would allow the market to collect the liquidity resting below. Bears are expected to keep defending this zone until the market breaks through with conviction. Consolidation may continue as long as the support level holds, but the underlying downside risk remains significant. Conclusion BTC remains technically pressured as long as there is no convincing breakout above the 4H FVG. The current range is vulnerable to a downward break, especially with weak volume and persistent resistance structures. Traders would be wise to wait for clearer signals or a new trend on higher timeframes before committing to a direction.
by Youriverse
38
XAU/USD – Entry Analysis (H4)📈 XAU/USD – Entry Analysis (H4) Our previous analysis didn’t quite reach the entry point, but the market structure is still developing nicely, and now we have a clean, rule-based long setup on the H4 timeframe. After the CHoCH, price broke to the upside and is now expected to pull back into the FVG + Order Block zone. These two POIs align perfectly, increasing the probability that the market will collect liquidity here before continuing higher. 🎯 Entry Setup Buy limit: 4086 Stop loss: 4062 Take profit: 4160 RRR: excellent, close to 1:3 🧠 Position Management Once price reaches the 50% RR level (around 4123): ➡️ close 50% of the position ➡️ move the remaining stop loss to break even (4086) This removes all risk from the trade while allowing the rest to run toward the main target at 4160.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Amigocsek
EURUSD - Waiting on the direction!Introduction EURUSD is currently trading in a very technical zone where price is positioned between two significant daily fair value gaps. These opposing imbalances—one bearish and one bullish—are acting as major directional barriers. As long as price remains contained between them, the pair is effectively trapped in a compression phase, awaiting a decisive breakout. The next clear move will likely arise when either the upper or lower FVG gives way, allowing the market to target the liquidity zones that lie beyond these imbalances. Daily Bearish FVG Above current price sits the daily bearish fair value gap, which is acting as a strong resistance area. If EURUSD manages to break through this upper FVG with conviction, it would indicate that buyers have reclaimed control. A clean break above this zone would open the path toward the liquidity area located at the top of the chart. This region is where a large cluster of stop orders and resting buy-side liquidity is likely positioned. A move into this area would be a natural target as price seeks to rebalance inefficiencies and tap into the liquidity pool above previous highs. Daily Bullish FVG Below the current range lies the daily bullish fair value gap, functioning as a major support zone. If EURUSD breaks below this lower FVG, it would signal a shift in momentum back to the downside. Such a move would send price toward the liquidity zone at the bottom, where sell-side liquidity rests beneath prior lows. This would align with typical market behavior in a bearish continuation—first taking out inefficiencies, then reaching into the liquidity pools that form below structural lows. Conclusion EURUSD is currently confined between two major daily FVG levels, creating a tightly compressed structure where the next breakout will dictate direction. Until price decisively breaks either the bearish FVG above or the bullish FVG below, the pair remains in a waiting phase. The eventual breach of one of these imbalances will determine whether EURUSD hunts liquidity at the top or at the bottom, making this a critical moment for directional clarity in the market.
by Youriverse
49
BTC Fibo RetracementIn the meantime, here is my BTC plan. Now we are very close to ATH and I would wait for next retracement to enter long, if we are going to 120. Zone Of Interest combines several reasons to make an entry. • 0.5 Fibo • Sell Side Liquidity • Valid 8H FVG • And a border of discount zone It is not at all necessary that the price will fall to these levels, but if it will, I`ll be watching price action there and make my decision. Have a good trades!
Long
by CyberBOB_Crypto
Bitcoin - Approaching the Make or Break ZoneBitcoin continues to bleed lower after multiple liquidity sweeps, and the decline is beginning to compress into a more controlled down move. The chart shows a clear shift in sentiment after the all time high sweep, then another daily sweep that helped close both the daily and 4H imbalance. Since losing the mid range zone and treating it as resistance, the market has been trending toward the next major area of interest. Consolidation Structure The structure is currently defined by a clean series of lower highs combined with sharp impulsive down legs. These moves are driven by liquidity grabs followed by displacement, which fits the narrative of a market hunting demand. The previously supportive gray zone has now flipped into resistance, confirming that the current trend remains heavy until a deeper demand zone is reached. Key Support Zone and Expectations The most important area beneath price sits around the seventy two thousand to seventy five thousand range, which is the closest meaningful support left on the higher time frame. This zone has been untested since the last major accumulation phase, and as long as price reaches it with a clean move, the reaction can form the base for a bullish leg. If this zone fails to hold, the next meaningful support sits deeper, and the downside extension could accelerate before any recovery starts. Bullish Scenario If Bitcoin reaches the seventy two thousand to seventy five thousand range and prints a clear rejection with displacement back upward, the market can set the foundation for a strong bullish bounce. Ideally, we see a final liquidity sweep beneath that range, followed by a sharp market structure shift on the lower time frames. That would open the door for a sustained recovery toward the mid range inefficiencies left behind during the selloff. Bearish Scenario If the key zone does not hold, the current support gives way and the market moves into a much deeper discount. That would shift the bias toward continuation lower, targeting untouched liquidity pools further down. In this scenario, any attempt to bounce would likely be corrective rather than the start of a true reversal. Conclusion I expect Bitcoin to deliver a meaningful bullish bounce once the seventy two thousand to seventy five thousand zone is tapped, as long as the level holds cleanly. If it fails, the decline continues into a deeper support, but the higher time frame idea remains that the next strong reaction will come from that region. Until then, patience is key while the market completes the move into higher time frame demand. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
56
BTC – SMC Suite Follow-Up: Liquidity Grab at 116K and the Drop!!BTC – SMC Suite Follow-Up: Liquidity Grab at 116K and the Drop That Followed This is a follow-up to my earlier idea “ BTC – Liquidity Grab at $116K Before Deep Correction? ” where I highlighted the danger of price trading into stacked SMC levels on the 1D chart. 1️⃣ Quick recap of the original idea In the previous post, price was trading around the $112K–$116K zone. Using the SMC Suite on the 1D chart, I highlighted: • A high-timeframe supply / OB cluster around 116K. • A liquidity grab above prior highs – price spiked into fresh liquidity sitting above the range. • A confluence of Breaker + OB Re-test + FVG acting as a “danger zone” for fresh longs. • The idea that this move could be a distribution / liquidity grab before a deeper correction. The key message was: this is not a safe place to be aggressive long; watch for rejection and potential downside. 2️⃣ How price reacted afterwards Since that post: • Price respected the 116K zone as supply – every attempt to hold above it failed. • The highlighted OB + Breaker block acted as a ceiling; price consolidated there and then rolled over. • After losing the mid-range structure, BTC started a trend of lower highs and lower lows , confirming distribution. • We have now traded all the way down into the d emand / support zones below 92K and then lower , which were also plotted in advance by the same SMC levels. In simple terms, the area we marked as a “ danger zone for longs ” turned out to be the top of the move before this large downside leg. 3️⃣ What the SMC levels showed well This move is a nice case study of how the SMC concepts aligned: • Liquidity Sweep : Price ran above previous highs into fresh liquidity, then failed to hold. • Breaker + OB Re-test : Former demand became supply; retest of this breaker block rejected price. • FVG + Imbalance Zones : Upside imbalances got filled and then flipped into resistance. • Structure Shift : After the rejection, market structure shifted bearish with clean breaks of prior swing lows. None of this is about “perfect prediction”, but about reading where smart money might be offloading risk and where retail is most vulnerable. 4️⃣ Takeaways & what I’m watching next • HTF SMC levels matter. When multiple concepts cluster (Breaker, OB, FVG, previous highs), treat that zone with respect. • Liquidity grabs at highs are great warning signals – especially when followed by a clear structure shift. • For now, I’m watching how price behaves around the current demand zones and whether we see: • Strong rejection + reclaim of broken levels (potential swing-long areas), or • Continuation of lower highs pointing to further downside. This post is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
by TradeTechanalysis
Bitcoin - Relief rally is imminent!Introduction Bitcoin (BTC) has shown strong downward pressure over the past several days, yet it is beginning to display early signs of stabilization within key higher-timeframe fair value gap zones. Even though the current market structure remains bearish, several technical elements are aligning that suggest the potential for a relief rally. With multiple patterns and liquidity levels converging, the market may be preparing for a temporary upside correction before determining its next major direction. Weekly FVG On the weekly timeframe, BTC recently tapped into the weekly fair value gap and filled roughly fifty percent of this imbalance. This partial fill often indicates that the market is collecting liquidity before initiating a larger move. As a result, this weekly FVG acts as a strong demand zone where buyers tend to become active again, offering an area where price often stabilizes, even if only temporarily. The reaction here suggests that BTC may be forming a short-term base. Daily FVG On the daily timeframe, another fair value gap is present, and it aligns almost perfectly with the weekly zone. Above current price action lies a clear descending trendline, which is likely to act as resistance on any upward push. The combination of the daily FVG and the downward trendline creates a technically significant decision point. If BTC reaches this area, it may face renewed selling pressure, making this zone crucial for determining whether the market can extend higher or whether the downtrend will reassert itself. 4H Timeframe On the 4-hour chart, BTC has formed a falling wedge, a pattern that is typically considered bullish. Initially, price broke downward out of the wedge, which seemed like a continuation of weakness. However, BTC quickly moved back into the structure, signaling a fake-out. This type of movement often occurs when liquidity is collected beneath the pattern before a reversal begins. The return into the wedge strengthens the case for a short-term upward correction, suggesting that buyers may be gaining traction. Relief Rally The first zone to watch lies just above the current price level, where a 4-hour bearish FVG overlaps with the descending trendline. This confluence is likely to act as immediate resistance, making an initial rejection from this level highly plausible. After a potential rejection, price may revisit the bullish 4-hour FVG below, where buyers are expected to step in again. From this supportive zone, BTC could attempt to break through the descending trendline and continue higher toward the upper 4-hour bearish FVG around the 98,000-dollar region. This serves as a logical target for a relief rally, should momentum continue to build. Conclusion BTC is currently positioned within an important higher-timeframe demand zone, strengthened by the overlap of both the weekly and daily FVGs. Although the broader market structure remains bearish, the fake-out within the falling wedge on the 4-hour chart signals that a relief rally may be developing. The immediate resistance above price will provide the first major test. If Bitcoin finds renewed momentum from the bullish 4-hour FVG and successfully breaks the descending trendline, an upward move toward 98,000 dollars becomes increasingly realistic. For now, BTC appears to be setting the stage for a corrective bounce, with key levels offering clear guidance on how this scenario could unfold.
Long
by Youriverse
39
Best Free Fair Value Gap FVG Technical Indicator on TradingView This free indicator accurately identifies Fair Value Gaps FVG on any market. It is available on TradingView and it is very easy to set it up. In this article, I will show you how to use this indicator and how to find a fair value gap easy in one click. Let's start with my definition of a fair value gap because it is different from trader to trader. FVG is a sudden, sharp price move that happens so fast that it leaves behind a price zone where very little trading actually occurred. Because this zone saw almost no trading, it creates an imbalance . Such a move is usually created by a large candle. A candle with a big body and almost no wicks. Among classic Japanese candlesticks, there is one such a candle. It is called Marubozu. Here are bullish and bearish structures of that candle. A green one represents extremely strong bullish momentum. The price opened at the low of the period and closed at the high of the period. There were no pullbacks ; buyers were in complete control from the opening bell to the close. Its bearish variation has the same logic. The price opened at the high of the period and closed at the low of the period, with a very little trading activity within. Our technical indicator will look for such a candle. The indicator that we will use is called "All Candlestick Patterns". In the settings of this indicator, we should select Marubozu White (bullish candle) and Marubozu Black (bearish candle). After we click "OK", the indicator will immediately start working. The indicator will show valid and significant Fair Value Gaps FVG on any time frame and any trading instrument. Like any other indicator, it will miss some Fair Value Gaps, but while you are learning to identify them, it will help you to spot the most important ones. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
11
Bitcoin – A Gentle Slide Into A Strong ReactionBitcoin continues to trade inside a clean falling channel, moving lower in a controlled manner as it approaches a major support zone. The overall flow remains bearish in the short term, however the structure suggests we are nearing an area where a short term bullish reaction becomes highly probable. Momentum remains soft, but the market is clearly hunting liquidity beneath the channel, which aligns with the expectation of one more drive lower before a meaningful bounce forms. Channel Structure And Liquidity Behavior The descending channel is guiding price efficiently, with every lower high respecting the upper boundary and confirming that sellers are still in control for now. This controlled descent usually signals that the market is preparing for a sweep of the lows rather than a sudden break. As price presses toward the channel’s lower boundary and the highlighted support zone, liquidity becomes the focus. A sweep beneath the most recent lows is the type of inducement that often precedes a strong reversal. Support Zone Reaction Expectations The green support zone marked on the chart remains the key area of interest. It aligns with previous accumulation behaviour and prior reactive turning points, giving it weight as a zone where traders expect a bounce. Once price pierces into that zone, the probability of a short term bullish response is high. The ideal reaction would be a sharp rejection from the lows, followed by a move back into the body of the channel and a gradual push upward as the market begins absorbing sell orders. Retest And First Resistance Layer If the support holds and price bounces, the first significant obstacle will be the red resistance zone above. This area represents the first real test of whether buyers have the strength to absorb supply. A clean move into that zone, followed by a higher low, would confirm the shift in momentum and support the idea of a short term bullish continuation. Failure at this level would simply keep Bitcoin inside the same corrective structure. Short Term Bullish Scenario The most probable bullish path is simple: a liquidity sweep into the support zone, a strong rejection, a move back toward mid channel levels, and then a steady climb into the first resistance area. The market does not need to break any major structure immediately. A clean reaction from support is enough to anchor a short term bullish leg, even if the larger trend is still corrective. Conclusion Bitcoin is approaching the point where a short term bullish bounce becomes increasingly likely. The falling channel, the upcoming liquidity sweep, and the depth of the support zone all point to a reaction that should materialize soon. Patience remains important, as the bounce is expected only after the market completes its liquidity objective in the support area. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
42
EURUSD - Outlook for next week!Introduction EURUSD has been steadily climbing, maintaining a firm uptrend that continues to show strength in market structure. The series of higher highs and higher lows suggests that bullish momentum remains intact, with the market consistently respecting key demand zones on its way upward. As the pair progresses, important technical levels such as fair value gaps and liquidity pools will act as guidance for where price may gravitate next. The chart reflects this upward trajectory and offers a clear roadmap for potential continuation. Bullish 4H FVG One of the most significant areas currently in focus is the bullish 4-hour fair value gap. I expect this gap to be reached and to hold as a supportive zone if price pulls back into it. This region represents an area where the market previously moved with strong displacement, leaving inefficiencies behind. If price returns to rebalance this gap and reacts positively, it would provide a strong indication that buyers are still in control. A successful hold of the 4H FVG would reinforce the broader bullish narrative and serve as a foundation for further continuation to the upside. Liquidity Sweep With the prevailing trend pointing upward, EURUSD is likely to continue seeking liquidity positioned above current price levels. As momentum carries the market higher, a liquidity sweep becomes increasingly probable. This would involve price reaching into the cluster of resting liquidity above previous highs, tapping into stop orders and filling imbalances before potentially testing the bearish 4-hour fair value gap above. Such a move aligns with typical market behavior, where price targets areas of inefficiency and pockets of liquidity before deciding on its next direction. Final Thoughts In conclusion, EURUSD remains firmly positioned within an uptrend, and the draw on liquidity continues to point upward. The liquidity residing above the market, particularly around and just above the bearish 4-hour FVG, presents a natural target for price to explore. As long as the bullish structure remains intact and the 4H FVG holds as anticipated, the path of least resistance is still to the upside. Traders should remain attentive to how price behaves around these key zones, as they will provide important clues for the next significant movement in the pair. ------------------------- Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Long
by Youriverse
68
Weekly evaluation & forecast - Week 46/47Week 46: Succesfull week with a result on +1,17% 1 loss on EURNZD 2 wins on GBPUSD Weak 47: This week i´m gonna be focusing on USD pairs along with EURGBP and GBPJPY. I´ll expect a volatile week, especially on USD paris due to the coming long waited NFP on thursday. This week i´m gonna be extra selective due to NFP. I will prefer to exit any trade that i´m in related to USD before NFP announcement. Weekly news calender: www.forexfactory.com On DXY i´ll continue having a bearish bias, while keeping in mind that we are in a FVG. Before taking any trade on USD pair, i would like price to play out a very clear weekly cycle up into one of the bearish FVG´s. There will be a small chance of a good trade opportunity as i want to exit before NFP, so i will prioritise trades on non-USD pairs. EURCHF hit BIAS last week, and i have som uncertainty to if the biased will change. I need to see price play out a weekly AMD cycle down into some kind of liquidity before considering trading this pair. Only liquidity i can see so far is in the 4H FVG. Maybe something better will get created during the week. I´m still in a trade on GBPJPY, but would really like to add to it. Without a doubt one of the pairs which looks most interessting to me. I have a clear bullish bias for this pair in the comming week. Would like to see price form a weekly low around london open on wednessday as to CPI news on GBP. I expect price to go down to FVG under the equal lows in the beginning of the week. If a good entry oppurtunity comes i´m gonna consider taking a counter bias trade down to the FVG. The momentum of EURGBP is starting to slow down, but i´m keeping my bias bullish until i reached my bias, unless something uexpected is gonna happen. There is a slight chance for a weekly smaller retracement, but for now if we´re gonna trade down in the start of the week, i will look for longs. Very similar pair as GBPJPY. I will keep you updated during the week, with what trades i´m gonna take.
by FXLiquidityFarmer
Bitcoin - Is This Where The Pain Finally Ends?Bitcoin has been grinding lower for about a month after sweeping the previous all time high, which created the shift that kicked off this broader downtrend. Since that sweep, every push up has been met with selling, and the market has slowly bled its way back into a major support zone that has been significant in earlier cycles. This is the kind of level where the market usually makes a statement, either by holding and reversing or by breaking and opening the door to a deeper move. Support Structure and Key Reaction Point Price is sitting inside a wide support band that has given strong reactions in the past. It is a level traders know well and one that typically slows the market down. The difference this time is the structure leading into it. The downtrend has been consistent, with a string of lower highs showing that sellers remain in control for now. How the daily candle closes inside this zone will tell us a lot about whether buyers still have enough strength to defend it or if this level finally gives way. Recent Liquidity Events and Daily Gap Behavior Before dropping into this support, Bitcoin ran a recent daily high and instantly filled the gap above it, making it clear that the move was more about collecting liquidity than shifting the trend. After that, price slid lower again and retested the inside of the daily imbalance, but the retest failed to spark any meaningful demand. That kind of behavior often hints at a market that is still hunting lower levels rather than building upside structure. Bullish Scenario For sentiment to turn, Bitcoin needs to close back above the midline of this zone. That level is the one that would show buyers are actually stepping back in and absorbing the sell side. If the market can reclaim it, a short term reversal becomes possible, and the first targets would be the inefficiencies left behind during the recent selloff. From there, the market would still need to break a series of lower highs before a proper shift is confirmed on the daily timeframe. Bearish Scenario If the daily candle fails to close above that internal level highlighted on the chart, viewers should expect continuation lower to become the more probable scenario. A failed close there tells you buyers did not manage to hold the midpoint of the range, which usually means the market is preparing to reach for deeper liquidity. In that situation, the next major support zone below becomes the logical draw, and the path shown on the chart, a small bounce followed by another leg down, fits well with the current momentum. Conclusion Bitcoin is sitting at a decision point. Either this support zone does its job again and gives the market enough fuel for a recovery, or the daily close confirms that the level has weakened and the market is ready to reach for the next higher timeframe support. Until that close gives clarity, patience is key, since this is typically where traders get chopped if they try to force a direction too early. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
69