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GBPUSD

Cable Trade Plan 15-19 Sep, 2025Base Case (60%): Range-Bound with a Dixie Tilt Narrative: The US data/Trump expectations continue to weigh on the dollar more than the UK data weighs on the pound. The carry trade remains in vogue. Price Action: Cable grinds higher or just chops within its recent range (1.500 - 1.600). It's a "best of a bad bunch" story. Trading: Wait for pullbacks toward supply, for longs; targeting the top of the range. (Trading the range, not the doom-and-gloom fundamental view.) Bear Case (30%): UK Data Starts the Unwind Narrative: A key UK data points (jobs report shows unemployment spiking, or CPI comes in softer than expected) is a canary in the coal mine. It would signal the economy is breaking so fast that the BoE will be forced to cut rates soon, regardless of inflation. This breaks the strong leg (carry trade). Price Action: A sharp, impulsive drop below key demand levels (1.400 1.450). This would be the first sign of the fundamental story taking over. Trading: A break and close below this key demand of 1.450 could be a signal to short, targeting a move to the next major area of demand 1.400. Wild Card (10%): UK Inflation Shock Narrative: UK CPI comes in hotter than expected (e.g., headline ticks up toward 4%). Price Action: Cable spikes higher. This would force a massive unwind of BoE rate cut bets. Traders would be forced to buy Sterling, pushing Cable through 1.600 to potential 1.725 Trading: This would be a fadeable rally. Using the strength as an entry at more over-brought levels, initiating or adding to longer-term strategic shorts, as it only deepens the BoE's trap and worsens the eventual economic pain.
by PointBreak42
GBPUSD – Buy Trade Scenario🔵 Bullish Scenario (Buy Call) Entry Zone: Break and sustained 4H close above 1.3600 – 1.3620 (marked resistance zone). Reasoning: Price has tested this resistance 4–5 times, weakening the supply zone and increasing breakout probability (resistance fatigue). Each pullback from this level has shown higher lows, suggesting bullish accumulation. Volume profile indicates sellers are failing to defend the zone with the same intensity. Target 1: 1.3700 (psychological round number). Target 2: 1.3780 – 1.3800 (major liquidity pool & prior swing high). Stop Loss: Below 1.3550 (false breakout protection). R:R Potential: ~1:2.5 to 1:3 ⚖️ Key Technical Takeaway 1.3600 – 1.3620 = Make-or-break resistance. Since it has been tested 4–5 times, probability of a breakout is higher (resistance fatigue). Safer strategy: Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume (bullish continuation)
Long
by coolbouy
GU, UJ & Gold: Calm Before the Storm | Fed, BoJ, BoE AheadThe markets have been stuck in ranges for weeks, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold all moving sideways. In this video, I share a clear perspective on why that’s happening and what could finally trigger a breakout. Here’s what you’ll gain: ✅A simple breakdown of the range structures on GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold. ✅The key economic events next week that could shake the market (Fed, BoJ, BoE, UK CPI & labour data). ✅Likely breakout scenarios and the triggers to watch. ✅How to avoid getting trapped while the price is still consolidating. This is the “calm before the storm” phase, and knowing how to position yourself ahead of it could make all the difference. 👉 Drop a comment with the pair you’re watching most closely. Trade smart, trade consciously. Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice, always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
by darcsherry
GBPUSD Sellers Defend Supply Zone, Eyes Shift Toward Key SupportGBPUSD, Cable has once again struggled to push beyond the heavy resistance block around 1.3580–1.3680, with price stalling inside a supply zone and showing signs of exhaustion. The technical rejection matches up with a broader fundamental backdrop that favors USD strength while the pound faces ongoing domestic headwinds. Let’s dig deeper into the setup. Current Bias Bearish – price action is capped by a strong supply zone, and fundamentals lean toward further downside. Key Fundamental Drivers Bank of England: Recent rate cut reinforced downside pressure, and policymakers remain cautious as inflation stabilizes but growth weakens. Federal Reserve: Sticky US inflation and cautious Fed easing expectations provide underlying support for the dollar. Economic divergence: UK growth outlook remains soft compared to the US, with services PMI and retail sales lagging. Macro Context Interest rates: BoE has shifted toward a looser stance, while the Fed maintains cautious cuts. This relative policy divergence favors USD over GBP. Economic growth: UK data (manufacturing contraction, fragile GDP estimates) paints a weak backdrop. US growth, while slowing, remains stronger. Commodity flows: Oil weakness indirectly pressures GBP through reduced global demand sentiment. Geopolitical: Brexit-related trade frictions persist, adding medium-term uncertainty. Primary Risk to the Trend A dovish Fed surprise (softer CPI, faster cuts) could undercut USD strength, boosting GBP/USD. Conversely, stronger UK wage or inflation prints could temporarily support the pound. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event UK CPI & Retail Sales – will set tone for BoE policy outlook. US CPI and Fed commentary – crucial for USD trajectory. Leader/Lagger Dynamics GBP/USD acts as a leader within pound crosses (GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF), often setting direction. It behaves as a lagger to broader USD moves, especially after US data releases. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3483, 1.3342 Resistance Levels: 1.3580, 1.3685 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3685 (above supply zone) Take Profit (TP): 1.3342 (major downside target) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints GBPUSD remains under pressure after repeated rejections from the 1.3580–1.3685 supply zone. With BoE leaning dovish and UK data fragile, the bias stays bearish, favoring a move toward 1.3483 and possibly 1.3342. A stop loss above 1.3685 protects against upside squeezes, while US and UK CPI will be the deciding catalysts. For now, the setup favors sellers, with clear downside targets and the dollar holding the upper hand.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
GBP/USD Base Case for the Week Ahead (Structural View)The path of least resistance is eventually lower for Cable. Using short-term strength (e.g., from hot UK data or a weak Dollar) as opportunities to establish or add to strategic short positions for a major move lower. For This Week: Be agile. Recognise that price action will be a battle between: Short-Term Sterling Longs: Betting on the carry trade and a weak dollar. Long-Term Sterling Shorts: Betting on the UK's fundamental decay.. Key Levels remain: 1.400 demand and 1.500 to 1.600 for supply. With 1.3725 and above for strategic shorts. A break below 1.400 would signal the institutional shorts have already built their book. Base case is more distribution above 1.500 and bounce from 1.400 suggests the carry trade is still in play for a little while longer.
by PointBreak42
2
GBPUSD – Forming a Bullish Pattern?👋Hello everyone, let’s take a look at FX:GBPUSD ! Looking at the GBP/USD pair, the market is currently testing a key resistance zone around the 1.3580 level. We can see that a Bullish Bat pattern is forming, with the price action completing the final CD wave. The next move will be highly anticipated. If the pattern completes, the next wave could result in a strong bullish rally. Additionally, GBPUSD is supported by the ascending trendline and the EMA 34, which could push the pair to test 1.3508 again, and with more favorable conditions, it may continue to conquer higher levels. What do you think about the trend of GBPUSD? Let me know your thoughts!
by Kevinn_Nguyen
9
British GDP slows to 0%, pound edges lowerThe British pound is slightly lower on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3541, down 0.22% on the day. UK GDP slowed in July, posting zero growth month-to month. This was down from the 0.4% gain in June and matched the market estimate. Services and construction were higher but were offset by a decrease in manufacturing. In the three months to July, GDP eased to 0.2%, down from 0.3% and below the market estimate of 0.2%. The UK economy has been losing steam - after a strong gain of 0.7% in the first quarter, GDP eased to 0.3% in Q2 and all signs point to negative growth in the second half of 2025. The weakening economy supports the case for the Bank of England to lower rates, but rising inflation is making it harder for the BoE to ease policy. In July, consumer inflation rose to 3.8%, higher than expected. The BoE has projected that inflation will rise to a peak of 4% in September, double the BoE's target of 2%. The BoE meets on September 18 and is expected to hold rates, after cutting rates in August to 4.0%. At that meeting, the nine-member monetary policy committee voted 5-4 to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said that the BoE will take a "gradual and careful" approach to rate cuts. The November 6 meeting will be very significant, coming just ahead of the government's budget. There was a lot of attention paid to Thursday's US CPI report, as inflation rose to 2.9% y/y, up from 2.7% and in line with expectations. Overshadowed by the CPI release was unemployment claims which jumped to 267 thousand in the first week of September, up sharply from 236 thousand in the prior release and well above the market estimate of 235 thousand. This was the highest number of claims since October 2021 and is another sign of a deteriorating labour market. GBPUSD has pushed below support at 1.3563 and is testing support at 1.3543. Below, there is support at 1.3524 There is resistance at 1.3582 and 1.3602
by OANDA
XAU/USD | Gold Faces Rejection Zone $3654–$3675 – Pullback AheadBy analyzing the gold chart on the 12-hour timeframe, we can see that the price has continued its rally since our last analysis, setting new highs one after another, with the latest peak at $3,675. Currently, gold is trading around $3,644, and we still don’t see any clear change in market structure to suggest a strong reversal. However, the $3,654–$3,675 zone is considered a rejection block. If the price manages to close below this zone within the next 12 hours, I expect a price correction. The possible downside targets for this pullback are $3,635, $3,625, and $3,616. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
40
GBP/USD | Pound at 1.3535 – Watching for Deeper Drop! (READ)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is trading around 1.3535. If it closes and holds below 1.3553, we can expect more downside. The possible bearish targets are 1.3513, 1.3480, and 1.3473. The key demand zones are 1.3480–1.3500 and 1.3448–1.3460. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
16
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 12, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound is trading near 1.35500 amid a weak dollar and expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates unchanged on September 18. The market highly values the likelihood of a pause, as wage growth and persistent “hard core” service inflation are keeping the regulator from easing anytime soon. This supports the interest rate differential in favor of the GBP against the dollar in the coming weeks. The US, in turn, is providing additional tailwinds through growing signs of a weakening labor market and easing inflationary pressures in segments relevant to PCE. Risk appetite remains strong, which is combined with investor caution towards the long dollar ahead of the Fed meeting. Political and fiscal risks exist in the UK, but in the short term, they are secondary to the monetary agenda. Based on the fundamental balance, the base scenario is to buy with careful money management: BUY 1.35550, SL 1.35150 (below the nearest macro news “risk threshold”), TP 1.36250 — provided that the Fed/BoE rhetoric remains moderately dovish and there are no surprises on inflation. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.35550, SL 1.35150, TP 1.36250
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD – Short-Term Bearish TrendGBP/USD is currently in a short-term bearish trend after testing the resistance at 1.36000 USD and showing signs of a pullback. If the support at 1.35000 USD is broken, GBP/USD could drop sharply towards 1.34000 USD. US Unemployment Claims data came in higher than expected, weakening the USD. However, the stability in Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations from UoM is not enough to support GBP. If the price stays below 1.36000 USD, GBP/USD could continue to decline towards 1.35000 USD, and possibly 1.34000 USD if the support is broken. Monitor the 1.35000 USD support level closely to determine the next move for GBP/USD.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
1
GBPUSD: Pressing 1.355 – waiting for a clear breakoutHello everyone, On the H4 chart, GBPUSD maintains a bullish structure: higher lows and price holding above the Ichimoku cloud. Following the breakout on 9 September that left an FVG base at 1.343–1.348, the market is now compressing just below 1.355–1.358. This kind of consolidation often precedes an impulsive move. Should an H4 candle close firmly above 1.358, the 1.362–1.366 zone and even 1.370 become the next objectives. On the news side, the latest US August PPI print came in soft, easing yields and the DXY, thus reducing pressure on GBPUSD. Looking ahead, jobless claims data and Fed commentary will be in focus: if the tone stays tilted towards easing, it will be difficult for the USD to strengthen significantly at these highs. From the UK side, GDP, industrial production figures, and BoE signals will also act as catalysts; positive data or a less dovish stance could provide the springboard for GBP to break through 1.358. My bias is bullish, waiting for confirmation above 1.358 to extend the upward move. What about you – do you think GBPUSD will break the ceiling soon?
Long
by EmmaChartist
6
GBPUSD H1 | Bullish bounce setupGBP/USD could fall to the buy entry, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside. Buy entry is at 1.3526, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.3484, which is a pullback support level. Take profit is at 1.3587, which is a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
GBPUSD A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for GBPUSD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.3577 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.3550 My Stop Loss - 1.3590 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
2