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Gc1!!

XAUUSD Buy signal on Triangle bottom.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Triangle pattern, having dropped below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) in recent sessions. It is approaching its 1D MA100 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support (holding since December 31 2024), which provided the bounce on the previous July 30 Higher Low. With the 4H MACD printing a bottom formation similar to all buy sequences of the Triangle, it is highly likely that we will see a rebound next. As with the previous Bullish Leg, we expect to test at least the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level, which is at 3420. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
Technical Analysis for XAUUSD (Gold) Closing Price: $3335.94 (16th Aug 2025, 2:05 AM UTC+4) Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA). 1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly) Elliott Wave: Gold is likely in Wave 5 of a broader bull cycle (Wave 3 peak at $3200, Wave 4 dip to $2950). Target: $3450–$3500 if Wave 5 extends. Gann Price Forecasting: Square of 9: √3335.94 ≈ 57.76 → Key resistance at 58² = $3364, support at 57² = $3249. Break above $3364 opens path to $3400 (psychological level). Ichimoku (Weekly): Tenkan/Kijun: Bullish crossover (Tenkan > Kijun). Cloud: Price above Senkou Span (bullish). Moving Averages: Weekly EMA(50): $3200 (strong support). Swing Outlook: Bullish. Hold longs with trailing stops. Target $3450–$3500. 2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily) Harmonic Patterns: ABCD Bearish pattern forming on 4H: A: $3300 → B: $3350 → C: $3325 → D: $3360–$3370 (potential reversal zone). Bullish Gartley (M Pattern) on daily chart near $3300 support. Wyckoff Phase: Distribution signs above $3330: Upthrust (false breakout) at $3340 (16th Aug). Volume fading near highs. Gann Time Forecasting: Aug 20–22 (geometric time window) for potential trend reversal. RSI + Bollinger Bands (Daily): RSI(14): 68 (approaching overbought). Price hugging upper BB(20,2), suggesting consolidation. Swing Trade Setup: Short near $3360–$3370 (ABCD target) with stop-loss at $3385. Long near $3300 (Gartley support) with stop-loss at $3280. 3. Intraday Outlook (5M–1H) Key Levels: Resistance: $3345 (Gann 1x1 angle), $3360 (Square of 9). Support: $3320 (VWAP), $3300 (psychological). Indicators: Ichimoku (1H): Tenkan: $3330, Kijun: $3320 → Price above both (short-term bullish). Cloud: Thin and bullish (no major barriers until $3340). RSI + Bollinger Bands (1H): RSI(14): 62 (neutral). Price testing mid-BB ($3330) → Break below signals pullback. VWAP + MAs: VWAP: $3325 (intraday support). EMA(20): $3332 (dynamic support). Candlestick Patterns: 16th Aug 4H Candle: Shooting star at $3340 → Bearish reversal signal. 1H Chart: Bearish engulfing below $3335. Gann Squaring of Price-Time: Time Cycle: 10:00–11:00 AM UTC+4 (volatility spike). Price Harmony: $3335 = pivot → Close below $3330 targets $3315. Intraday Trade Plan: Sell below $3330 (target $3320 → $3310). Buy above $3340 (target $3350) if RSI <70. Stop-Loss: $15–$20 from entry. Critical Events Ahead: Gann Reversal Window: Aug 20–22 (watch for profit-taking). Daily Close above $3350 invalidates bearish ABCD pattern. Risk Note: Monitor USD strength and Fed policy hints. Use tight stops intraday. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade. (world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
GOLD rebounds slightly, data supports rate cut expectations, PPIOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded slightly, currently trading around $3,351/oz, positive US inflation data for July reinforced market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, while a weaker US dollar boosted the appeal of gold. Mild inflation supports rate cut expectations Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in July, below expectations of 2.8% and unchanged from June. Core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase in six months. While core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, the overall data was interpreted by the market as positive for a rate cut. The US Dollar Index fell to 98.02, making non-dollar-denominated gold more attractive. Market data showed traders are betting that the chances of a Fed rate cut in September and December remain high. Next up, the US will release weekly PPI, retail sales and initial jobless claims data, all of which could influence the policy outlook. Viewpoint: Rate cuts and political uncertainty pave the way for gold to hit new highs Uncertainty over the independence of the Federal Reserve and continued central bank buying of gold are key factors supporting gold prices. Demand for gold ETFs grew at its fastest pace since early 2020 in the first half of this year. If the independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly questioned, the safe-haven value of gold will increase significantly. Gold is a counterweight to fiat currencies (US dollars), and once investors question the independence of central banks, demand will increase. Forex Market Volatility and Safe Haven Demand Recent trade policy uncertainty has added to volatility in global forex markets. The Indian rupee is nearing a record low against the US dollar, with the Reserve Bank of India selling at least $5 billion to support the exchange rate. The US dollar has weakened after a brief rally, while the Chinese yuan has remained stable. The weakening US dollar has somewhat increased the relative appeal of gold, leading to a recovery in safe-haven demand. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold rallied, but the recovery momentum is still limited by the EMA21 as the first resistance, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. If gold breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to continue to increase in price towards the 3,400 USD price point, opening a new bullish cycle. However, at the current position, gold price can still retest the $3,310 – $3,300 area due to the pressure from EMA21 and 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. This means that the $3,310 – $3,300 area is an important support area for the uptrend. As long as gold remains above $3,300, it can still increase in the short term, but in case of a sell-off below $3,300, confirmed by a price action below $3,292, it will open the conditions for a downtrend with the next target around $3,246 in the short term. During the day, the trend of gold prices is generally sideways, with balanced conditions and indicators, described by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the 50 level, also showing the market's hesitant sentiment. Personally, I am inclined to the upside, along with that, open long positions should be protected when the 3,300 USD mark is broken below. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3391 - 3389⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3395 →Take Profit 1 3383 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3377 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3295 →Take Profit 1 3307 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3313
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Gold Update 13AUG2025: Risk of Sideways Consolidation Last Friday, August 8, the price failed to progress above the April top as it closed underneath. Hence, there are two possible scenarios from here: The price could have just completed the first wave up in a larger wave 5, and we may see a retracement. This setup remains valid as long as the price stays above the last wave E of the Triangle at $3,300. The large sideways consolidation (WXY) might take shape, potentially retesting the bottom of wave A at $3,123. In this case, the target could drop lower, with potential support in the pink box area between $3,700 and $4,100. Which one do you think plays out?
COMEX:GC1!
by aibek
Who Has Bought the Most GoldSince the inflation hit a high at 9% in 2022, China, Turkey and Poland have been the top 3 buyers of Gold, including in the first two quarters of this year. It’s not just these countries; many other central banks have been stockpiling gold since (iii) July 2022. Then gold prices were at around US$1,800. Are central banks still buying as much gold today? Micro Gold Futures and Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by konhow
XAUUSD on the verge of price explosion to $3800.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within nearly a 2-year Channel Up. Despite the red start to this week, we have had a strong bullish confirmation signal prior, as the price hit and rebounded on its 1D MA100 (red trend-line). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) may be the Channel's natural Support throughout all this time but its the 1D MA100 that every time it's been touched, it initiated the pattern's technical Bullish Legs. As you can see this always takes place after an Accumulation/ Consolidation period and the minimum rise it has produced was +18.53%. If we repeat this bear minimum, we are looking at a $3800 Target before the end of the year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
Gold Prices Slide as Geopolitical Calm Sparks Market DivergenceIn a surprising turn of events, gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday, reflecting shifting investor sentiment driven by easing geopolitical concerns and evolving market dynamics. The precious metal fell approximately 1.65% overnight, with the current trading price around $3,399 as of this writing. This downtrend marks a significant departure from recent stability, highlighting the complex interplay of global events and market positioning. Geopolitical Factors and US Dollar Dynamics The primary catalyst behind the recent slump has been the easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Investors are increasingly optimistic about the prospects of diplomatic resolution, bolstered by the upcoming US-Russian summit scheduled for Friday. Many market participants believe that this high-level meeting could pave the way for de-escalation and possibly bring an end to the prolonged war, reducing the perceived need for safe-haven assets like gold. Simultaneously, a surge in US Dollar buying has contributed to gold's decline. As the dollar strengthens, the relative attractiveness of gold diminishes since it is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies. This dynamic has compounded the downward pressure on gold prices, further amplifying the current bearish momentum. Market Positioning: Divergence Between Retail and Institutional Traders A noteworthy aspect of the current market landscape is the divergence observed between different trader groups. Non-commercial traders, often institutional investors and hedge funds, have increased their long positions on gold. This suggests a continued belief in the metal’s potential as a safe haven or a strategic asset. Conversely, retail traders appear to be shifting towards short positions, possibly reacting to the recent price decline or attempting to capitalize on a short-term correction. This divergence signals a potential imbalance in market sentiment and could hint at an upcoming volatility spike. Typically, such divergences between large institutional positions and retail sentiment can precede significant price movements, either a reversal or a deeper correction. Technical Outlook and Upcoming Data Releases Looking ahead, technical analysts are eyeing the possibility of a further spike down in gold prices before any potential rebound. The current trend suggests a bearish movement, but a volatile market environment could see a sharp correction or a "spike down" between today and the end of the week. Adding to the market's uncertainty are upcoming macroeconomic data releases, notably the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month and the overall CPI figures. These indicators are critical as they influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and can significantly impact dollar strength and precious metals’ prices. A surprise in these data points could either reinforce the bearish trend or trigger a reversal, especially if inflation figures diverge from consensus estimates. Trading Strategy: Looking for a Long Setup Despite the current bearish tone, there is a strategic opportunity for traders to position themselves for a potential rebound. Given the divergence and upcoming data releases, many are eyeing a long setup—buying opportunities that could capitalize on a short-term correction or a reversal once market fears subside. Traders should monitor key support levels around current prices and watch for confirmation signals in price action and volume. A strong bounce or reversal pattern following the release of inflation data could present an ideal entry point for long positions, aligning with the broader view of a potential spike down followed by a recovery. Conclusion Gold remains a dynamic asset influenced by geopolitical developments, currency movements, and trader positioning. While the recent decline signals caution, the divergence in trader sentiment and upcoming economic data provide traders with a strategic landscape ripe for potential opportunities. As always, careful analysis and risk management are paramount in navigating these volatile markets. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD hesitates, inflation data day in focusOANDA:XAUUSD came under pressure on Monday (August 11) and recovered slightly this morning, Tuesday (August 12). US President Trump made it clear that he would not impose tariffs on gold imports, erasing earlier market concerns about disruptions to the global gold supply chain. Investors are now turning their attention to US inflation data, due to be released this week, to gauge the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Tariff doubts dissipated Trump tweeted: "There will be no tariffs on gold!" without providing further details. The announcement brought relief to the global gold market. As a global gold transit and refining hub, Switzerland was once considered the "biggest victim" but Trump's latest statement essentially eliminated that risk. Investor focus shifts to inflation As the tariff uncertainty fades, traders will turn their attention to other market factors, the most important of which is the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. • If US inflation data comes in higher than expected, this could give the Federal Reserve reason to pause its rate cut in September, which would put pressure on gold prices; • But if the data is mild or even weak, this is expected to support gold prices as market expectations of lower interest rates are further reinforced. Market Outlook In the short term, gold is entering a correction phase after tariff concerns are resolved, and price movements may be more influenced by US dollar and inflation data. If inflation remains low and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) sends a dovish signal, gold prices are expected to maintain high support levels; however, if inflation exceeds expectations and the US dollar strengthens, gold prices may face the risk of a deeper correction. In the medium to long term, gold remains valuable as a safe haven and an asset allocation channel amid global economic uncertainty and the possibility of low interest rates. The market expects core CPI to rise to 3.0% year-on-year in July, up from 2.9% in June. The pass-through of tariff costs could spur a rebound in goods inflation. • If the data beats expectations, the Federal Reserve could delay a rate cut. • Conversely, a weaker reading would increase the odds of a rate cut in September, with futures currently implying an 87% chance. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered, operating around the EMA21, showing that the overall market sentiment is still hesitant to wait for a breakthrough impact from the fundamental side. In the short term, gold is under technical pressure from the EMA21, and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, and for gold to have all the conditions for a continued bullish expectation, it needs to break above the said Fibonacci retracement level, after which the short-term target is the raw price point of 3,400 USD. If gold continues to break the raw price point of 3,400 USD and operates above this level, the possibility of a new bullish cycle will be opened with the next target at 3,430 USD - 3,450 USD. On the other hand, gold is still above $3,300, which does not allow the conditions for a bearish cycle to appear. That means as long as gold remains above the original price point of $3,300 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it can still increase in the short term. In case gold sells below $3,300, it will be eligible for a bearish cycle, the target then will be $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. On the momentum front, the RSI hovers around the 50 mark, indicating a hesitant market sentiment, but an upward bend from 50 would be a positive signal for upside potential. For the day, the overall outlook remains bullish and the key points to watch are listed below. Support: $3,340 – $3,310 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3377 - 3375⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3381 →Take Profit 1 3369 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3363 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3298 - 3300⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3294 →Take Profit 1 3306 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3312
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Data week, GOLD has all the conditions to riseThis week, global financial markets will look forward to US inflation data for July (CPI, PPI), retail sales data and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials. These important pieces of information will directly impact expectations for a September rate cut and influence the performance of the US Dollar, gold, crude oil and US stocks. On the political front, US President Donald Trump's public pressure on the Federal Reserve and recent appointments have raised market concerns about the independence of monetary policy, while escalating tariffs continue to raise the risk of global trade conflicts. Federal Reserve: Policy Disruption and Dovish Signals Coexist This week, the Fed kept its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, but the vote was split, with two officials—Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller—in favor of an immediate quarter-point rate cut. TVC:DXY : Technical Pressure and Political Risk The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to around 98 this week, failing to hold above 100. Technically, a break of the July low of 96.37 could lead to a drop to 95.13 and 94.62. Despite the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.285%, the Dollar remains under pressure, reflecting market concerns about political risks in the United States. If CPI is higher than expected this week, the market may feel like it is moving too fast, which could cause volatility. Traders generally believe that Trump's tariff policies, public criticism of the Federal Reserve and uncertainty about the fiscal deficit are all weakening the medium- to long-term support for the US Dollar. Markets will be watching closely to see if the impact of tariffs starts to show in inflation data, and if consumer spending data confirms the economic recovery. A positive reading would reinforce expectations for a rate cut, a positive signal for stocks and gold. An unexpected rise in inflation could slow the pace of Fed easing, weighing on risk assets and supporting the US Dollar TVC:DXY . Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been on a long bullish recovery since breaking out and holding above the $3,300 base point, and currently structurally it has not changed much with the uptrend still dominating the daily chart. Specifically, in the short term, gold is supported by the EMA21 with the target at the $3,400 base point noted by readers in the weekly publication last week has been achieved. Looking ahead, the horizontal support at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement will be the nearest support to reinforce the expectation of a continued breakout of gold prices breaking through the $3,400 point towards the $3,430 – $3,450 level. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above 50 but is still quite far from the overbought zone (80-100), indicating that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead. Meanwhile, even if gold is sold below the EMA21, the declines are not considered a specific technical trend in the short term, as long as the support levels of 3,310 – 3,300 USD and Fibonacci 0.382% are not broken below. Finally, in terms of position as well as technical conditions, the gold price on the daily chart currently has a technical outlook leaning more towards the upside and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 – 3,340 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,350 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3424 - 3422⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3428 →Take Profit 1 3416 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3410 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3338 - 3340⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3334 →Take Profit 1 3346 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3352
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD: Still Bullish, But Is It Time For A Pullback?In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Aug 11 - 15th. Gold is bullish on the Monthly, Neutral on the Weekly, Bullish on the Daily. Strong close to last week. Tariffs on Swiss Bars coming into the US sent prices higher, but Trump took some of the steam off late with statements of clarifying the misinformation about the tariffs. Will this bullishness continue? Look for prices to retrace further into the consolidation, as it started on Friday. There is a poi that price could target in discount of the range. There we could find a high probability buying opportunity. Be wary of the pullback, as that move is likely to be corrected, but that would set up a great long opportunity! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!
by RT_Money
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Aug 11 - Aug 15]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price has been almost flat, fluctuating only within the range of 3,345 USD/oz to 3,408 USD/oz. Notably, every time the gold price exceeds 3,400 USD/oz, it is pushed down below this level by profit-taking pressure. Next week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. Accordingly, the CPI in July is forecast to increase to 2.8% compared to the same period last year, from 2.7% in June. According to many experts, this increase in inflation is not strong enough to make the Fed delay cutting interest rates at its meeting in September. Therefore, strong fluctuations in the annual CPI figures will strongly affect the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. If the CPI in July rises above the 3% threshold, it will reduce expectations of the FED cutting interest rates in September, helping the USD increase, pushing gold prices down next week. Conversely, if the CPI in July falls below forecasts, it will push gold prices up sharply next week. In addition to CPI data, the US also announced retail sales for July. The US economy is driven by consumption, so if retail sales decline sharply, it will also negatively impact the USD, thereby pushing gold prices up next week and vice versa. With the current context and the above economic data, it is likely that gold prices next week will continue to move sideways, with no strong fluctuations. 📌In terms of technical analysis, the level of 3,350 USD/oz is the first support level, followed by the area of 3,285 - 3,300 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the level of 3,450 USD/oz is a strong resistance level, surpassing this level, the gold price next week has the opportunity to challenge 3,500 USD/oz. However, this possibility is not highly appreciated. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 – 3,340USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,350USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3452 - 3450⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3456 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3349 - 3351⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3345
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD | XAU/GC - Weekly Recap & Gameplan - 03/08/25📈 Market Context: Gold is currently trading within an accumulation zone as the market begins to price in a potential 0.25% rate cut by the Fed. This macro expectation is supporting the broader bullish bias in the commodities market. 🧾 Weekly Recap: • Price broke below the HTF bullish trendline — a key sign of weakness and potential structural shift. • However, a sharp drop in the DXY (US Dollar Index) provided a bullish tailwind for gold, resulting in a mid-week bounce. • This mixed action sets the stage for two potential outcomes next week. 📌 Technical Outlook & Game Plan: I’m preparing for two possible scenarios: 1️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Red Path): → Price retests the broken trendline and rejects it → Continuation to the downside → Play: Short setup 2️⃣ Bullish Scenario (Green Path): → Price reclaims the broken trendline and closes above it → Continuation higher toward next resistance → Play: Long setup 🎯 Setup Trigger: I will wait for a clear break of structure (BOS) on the 1H–4H timeframe to confirm directional bias. 📋 Trade Management: • Stoploss: Below the demand zone (for longs) or above supply (for shorts) on the 1H–4H chart • Target: → Bullish: $3,536 → Bearish: $3,305 💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More updates, setups, and educational posts coming soon — stay tuned!
COMEX:GC1!
by UA_CAPITAL
Gold explosion will be short livedThe price explosion in gold is solely due to the tariffs. I don’t even want to go into detail about what impact this will have on the USA. I’ll just say this much: I feel sorry for the American people, and it’s not their fault. And here, once again, we see the universal law of physics inherent in Median Lines/Forks at work. Right at the center line, the price will pull back and may drift toward the lower median line parallel, should the close occur below the center line. It seems as though the basic rules of arithmetic are a foreign concept to those in leadership. There is a belief that billions of dollars will now suddenly flow into the U.S. Treasury overnight — which is, of course, complete nonsense. If that were truly the case, the price of gold in London would have risen in step with the U.S. gold price. Instead, this madness will unfold as yet another act of monumental miscalculation, spreading across the U.S. economy and cementing the debt ledger as if it were the stone tablet of the Ten Commandments. Let us see what our Median Line/Fork framework will reveal over the coming days. …and I keep the world in my prayers, that peace may find its way into our thoughts.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
Gold Futures Hit $3,534 – Spot Lags by $100. What Could Mean?I don’t usually track Gold Futures every single day, but today a fellow trader drew my attention to something — and it’s impossible to ignore. Gold Futures just printed an all-time high at $3,534, while spot gold (XAUUSD) topped at $3,409 — a $120 spread at the peak, now narrowed to about $100 at the time of writing. A spread like this is highly unusual and, more importantly, unsustainable. By the time the August 27th contract expires, futures and spot must converge to the same price. That means one of two things is about to happen — and either way, the move would be explosive. 1. Bullish Scenario – Futures Are Right If the futures market is telling the truth, spot gold will have to accelerate higher to close the $100 gap. If XAUUSD stabilize above $3,400, the odds of a push toward its own ATH become significant — and the move could be fast and aggressive. ________________________________________ 2. Bearish Scenario – Futures Are Overreaching If futures are overshooting, they will have to correct — hard. From a technical standpoint, if spot will drop below $3,370, the door to a continuation is open toward at least $3,330 support. A 400-pip drop in spot could translate into at least a 1,000-pip drop in futures, bringing the spread back toward its more typical 20–30 range. ________________________________________ Why This Matters? Regardless of direction, $100+ spreads do not last. In the next three weeks, one side will be proven wrong, and the prices will snap back together. Looking back at this year’s price action, spot and futures have always mirrored each other with an average spread of 20-30usd, depending on conditions and expectation, and for example: • The spot ATH at $3,500 matches $3,509 in futures. • The May low was identical in both markets. This current divergence is the outlier — and it’s screaming that a major move is coming. ________________________________________ Bottom line: If futures are right, spot gold is about to rip higher. If spot is right, futures are about to collapse.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
15
GOLD spikes then falls rapidly, all conditions are bullishOANDA:XAUUSD prices surged after falling in the previous trading day, as Trump tariffs took effect and weak U.S. jobs data raised expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting safe-haven demand. OANDA:XAUUSD prices reversed course on Thursday, posting sharp gains as the latest U.S. jobs data showed a weakening labor market. Investors, therefore, increased their dovish bets as the Federal Reserve is expected to resume its easing cycle in September. The number of people filing for continuing unemployment benefits in the United States has hit a high not seen since November 2021, adding momentum to the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. With inflation remaining high and the U.S. job market weak, the risk of stagflation has emerged. Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that continuing unemployment claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26. The high level suggests that it is increasingly difficult for unemployed people to find new jobs. Initial jobless claims also rose to 226,000 last week, exceeding economists’ expectations. The data has bolstered market expectations for a Fed rate cut Last week, weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data boosted expectations for a rate cut. According to data from Prime Market Terminal, traders see a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. Meanwhile, higher tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump took effect on Thursday, providing a tailwind for gold, Valencia added. Countries affected include Switzerland, Brazil and India, which have yet to reach a deal with Washington. Gold, a store of value in times of uncertainty, also tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments. Milan joins Fed, adding pressure on Powell to cut rates US President Trump announced on Thursday that he will nominate Stephen Milan, currently chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, replacing Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned last week. The news also helped push gold prices higher on Thursday. Trump said on social media Truth Social: "Stephen Milan will serve as the newly vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until January 31, 2026. He has been with me since my second term and his economic expertise is unmatched. He will do an outstanding job." Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold currently has all the bullish conditions, specifically the gold price broke above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,371 and tested the original price point, which is the target upside point of the $3,400 area. The $3,371 level becomes the nearest support at present, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that there is still room for further upside ahead. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term. There are hardly any factors that suggest that gold can fall significantly, so the general trend in the short and medium term is bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,371 - $3,350 Resistance: $3,400 - $3,430 - $3,450 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3431 - 3429⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3435 →Take Profit 1 3323 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3339 - 3341⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3335 →Take Profit 1 3347 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Gold at All-Time Highs – Blow-Off or Breakdown?Gold has just printed new all-time highs, but I’m approaching with caution. At these levels, everyone long is in profit — leaving no trapped buyers above and only liquidity for smart money to grab. We kicked off the session with an impulsive spike higher, but this may have been a stop run and liquidity sweep rather than the start of another leg up. If price struggles to hold above that spike or fails on a re-test, we could see sellers step in, targeting the 4H FVG zone below. For now, I’m watching: A possible revisit of yesterday’s high to “fix” lack of excess on the DOM London session reaction to today’s spike high Potential short setups if buy-side momentum stalls NY session might deliver the day’s best move, but we could see early opportunities in the Asian and London sessions if price confirms a shift in order flow. What do you think? Is this a blow-off top in the making, or do buyers have one more push?
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by DWoodz
Gold Fails to Break Tuesday’s High – H4 FVG Still in SightGold continues to coil beneath Tuesday’s high, showing signs of failed bullish follow-through. Price attempted to press higher but couldn’t break out — a sign that sellers may still be in control. We’re still under key resistance at the Daily High, and that unfilled H4 Fair Value Gap below remains a prime draw. 🧠 My outlook: Expecting price to run back down toward the H4 FVG. Watching for a potential stop run above Tuesday’s high to clean up the lack of excess shown on the DOM. Anticipating the cleanest LONG setup might appear during NY session, but a solid entry could develop during Asian or London for a short if we see early signs of rejection. Key levels and reactions around D-H and the previous day’s high will be crucial. If the market tips its hand early, I’ll be looking to position short with that FVG as my magnet. Let me know if you're seeing something different. This feels like a setup that rewards patience and precision.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
GOLD trades in narrow range, leading market pulseThe current market pulse is still mainly revolving around the Trump-initiated tariff story, with spot OANDA:XAUUSD trading in a fairly narrow range and currently reported at $3,376/oz, down 0.13% on the day. Gold is also awaiting further impact from the Fed's interest rate cut, with a weaker Dollar providing support for non-yielding gold. Tariff News Update US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (August 5) that US tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will be announced “in about a week”. The progressive tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals could be as high as 250%. US news agency Bloomberg News said the Trump administration is now preparing to target key economic sectors and pledge to reshape global trade. “We’re going to start with a lower tariff on drugs, but within a year, not more than a year and a half, it’s going to be 150%, then 250% because we want drugs made in our country,” Trump said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. He did not specify what the initial tariff would be. “We’re going to be announcing measures on semiconductors and chips, which is a different category,” Trump added. However, Trump did not provide further details. The U.S. Commerce Department has been investigating the semiconductor market since April as it prepares for possible tariffs on an industry with estimated global sales of nearly $700 billion. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imported cars, auto parts, as well as steel and aluminum under the Trump administration. Tariffs on imported chips could significantly raise costs for major data center operators, including Microsoft Corp., OpenAI, Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc., which plan to spend billions of dollars on the advanced semiconductors needed to power their artificial intelligence businesses. On the Fed’s interest-rate path US job growth in July missed expectations, while nonfarm payrolls data for May and June were revised down significantly, with a combined loss of 258,000 jobs, suggesting a worsening labor market. Furthermore, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday: "We may need more than two rate cuts, and more is likely." She also noted: "The labor market is not too weak, but it is weakening, and further weakening would be detrimental." Surprising US labor market data and Daly’s dovish comments have all but confirmed the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market is now pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. OANDA:XAUUSD is often seen as a safe haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, and performs better in low-interest-rate environments. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range yesterday, but the price action is still mainly held above the EMA21 and it still has all the conditions for a possible increase. However, although the range is quite large, the overall situation is still showing a sideways accumulation trend. Currently, gold is supported by the EMA21, followed by the short-term $3,310 level and the raw price point of $3,300. As long as it remains above the psychological $3,300 level, it is still eligible for a short-term bullish outlook. Meanwhile, a break above $3,400 would open the door for a new short-term bullish cycle with the next target around $3,430 – $3,450. On the momentum front, the RSI maintains its price action above 50 and is still far from the overbought zone (80 – 100) suggesting that there is still plenty of room for upside ahead. During the day, in terms of technical position, gold has unchanged conditions that are inclined to increase in price, and the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,350 – 3,340 – 3,310 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,450 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3431 - 3429⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3435 →Take Profit 1 3323 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3325 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD down slightly, watch today's data, technical conditionsOANDA:XAUUSD edged lower in Asian trading on Tuesday (August 5), currently trading around $3,380/ounce. On Tuesday, the US ISM services PMI will be released, which is the most important economic data of the week and is expected to impact the gold market. OANDA:XAUUSD prices surged after weak jobs data increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Data released last Friday showed that the number of new jobs in the US non-farm sector in July was much lower than expected, and the total number of non-farm jobs in the first two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Traders now see an 87% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 63% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations of a rate cut have boosted gold prices, as the dollar provides support for the precious metal. The US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for July will be released today (Tuesday) and is expected to be 51.5, up from 50.8 previously. The July ISM services PMI could impact the US dollar and gold, depending on whether it is biased towards supporting a rate cut or pausing rate cuts for an extended period. Gold itself does not generate interest, but generally performs well in low-interest-rate environments and is seen as an inflation hedge. On the trade front Today (August 5), US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Indian goods in protest at India's purchase of Russian oil. New Delhi called Trump's attack "absurd" and pledged to protect its economic interests, deepening the trade rift between the two countries. Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social: "India not only buys massive amounts of Russian oil, but also sells much of it on the open market at a huge profit. They don't care how many people are being killed in Ukraine by the Russian war machine." Trump added: "Accordingly, I will be substantially increasing the tariffs that India pays to the United States." However, Trump did not specify the specific tariff amount. Responding to Trump's remarks, an Indian foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday that India would "take all necessary measures to protect its national interests and economic security." The spokesperson added: "These actions against India are unjustified and unjustifiable." Over the weekend, Reuters reported that India would continue to buy oil from Russia despite Trump’s threats. In July, Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from India, and US officials have also pointed to a range of geopolitical issues as holding up the signing of a US-India trade deal. Trump has also described the BRICS group as generally hostile to the US. Those countries have rejected Trump’s accusations, saying the group protects the interests of its members and the developing world as a whole. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has been very volatile in recent times, it is still moving sideways, with price action clinging to the EMA21. And after a strong recovery in the past three trading sessions, gold is temporarily limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which was the bullish target that readers paid attention to earlier. The return above the EMA21 provides gold with initial conditions for bullish expectations, but a new trend has not yet formed. If gold takes its price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and stabilizes above it, it will have room to continue rising with the next target being the raw price point of $3,400 rather than the $3,430-$3,450 target. But at its current position, it still has no clear trend either up or down. Meanwhile, once gold sells below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it could continue to decline with a target of $3,246 in the short term, which also means that the $3,300 – $3,292 area is the current key support area. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering around 50 with little fluctuation, indicating a hesitant sentiment in the market without leaning to either side. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is a sideways consolidation but the technical conditions are slightly more bullish, and the notable positions are listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,340 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3402 - 3400⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3406 →Take Profit 1 3394 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3388 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3325 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
After data shock, GOLD has bullish conditions againOANDA:XAUUSD rose more than 2% on Friday, hitting a one-week high, as weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data boosted hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the announcement of new tariffs boosted safe-haven demand. On the economic data front Gold prices rose more than 2% in U.S. trading on Friday (Aug. 1), hitting a one-week high, as weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data fueled hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and safe-haven demand was boosted by the announcement of new tariffs. The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by just 73,000 jobs in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. June's data was revised down to just 14,000, indicating a significant slowdown in job growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a cooling labor market. The jobs data was weaker than expected, but slightly higher than the market's lowest forecast. This increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed later this year. As a non-yielding asset, gold typically performs better in a low-interest-rate environment. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice before the end of the year, starting in September. Earlier this week, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. Chairman Powell said it was too early to determine whether a rate cut would be forthcoming in September, citing inflation and employment data. On the trade front Trump has imposed a new round of tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, causing a global market crash. Countries are scrambling to negotiate a better deal. In times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, safe-haven gold is in high demand. So far in 2025, gold prices have risen more than $400, hitting a record high of $3,167.57/oz on April 3, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank buying. Weak jobs data also sent the dollar lower against major currencies, further supporting gold prices as a weaker greenback makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Investors' Attention Turns to September FOMC Meeting Markets are now focused on the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Facing the dual pressures of volatile inflation, slowing employment and escalating global trade tensions, the Fed will have to balance its inflation target with economic growth. Markets are betting on the Fed to begin a new round of easing, and gold, as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic uncertainty, is expected to continue to benefit. Gold prices have risen more than 30% year-to-date, reflecting the market’s preference for safe-haven assets. If weak U.S. economic data continues in the coming weeks, or if new geopolitical conflicts emerge, gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend, challenging new highs for the year. Summary, Commentary Weak employment, new tariffs and a slumping stock market have all contributed to a strong recovery in gold prices. With the possibility of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September increasing significantly, gold market sentiment has warmed and risk aversion has returned. Investors will need to keep a close eye on inflation data, Fed officials’ speeches, and whether Trump continues to stoke trade tensions, which could lead to greater volatility in the gold market. Against the backdrop of the unexpected non-farm payrolls report and moderate inflation, the market has essentially “locked in” the possibility of a rate cut in September, but whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, and whether there will be further rate cuts in the future, will depend on the interaction between the Fed members’ verbal guidance and market expectations. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, affected by the sudden weak data that shocked the market, gold broke most of the technical structure that was leaning towards the downside. Price action was pushed above the EMA21, while the short-term downtrend channel was also broken above and the Relative Strength Index crossed above 50. These are the initial conditions for a short-term uptrend. But to confirm an uptrend and a new uptrend in the near term, gold needs to continue to break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level (3,371 USD) first, then the target will be around 3,400 USD in the short term. If gold breaks above $3,400 again, traders should set a new target of $3,430 in the short term, rather than $3,450 which is the all-time high. Motivationally, the RSI has not reached oversold territory to provide pure reversal support, but it has been pushed by the market shock after the NFP data release, so this rally may not be sustainable in a purely motivational way either. Overall, gold is now more bullish after a rally on Friday, opening up initial conditions for expectations of a new uptrend. And the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,323 – 3,310 – 3,300 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3327 - 3329⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3323 →Take Profit 1 3335 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3341
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading