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GOLD retreats slightly, market gains bets on easing cycleOANDA:XAUUSD edged slightly lower after a strong rally yesterday, as the market continued to expand expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin its rate-cutting cycle as early as December. This development occurred despite positive U.S. economic data, indicating that the main support for gold now comes more from monetary policy expectations than from growth signals. U.S. Treasury yields fell and the U.S. Dollar weakened, with the DXY index down 0.20% to 99.60, helping gold maintain its recovery momentum. Although initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 — the lowest since April — and durable goods orders rose more strongly than expected, these data had little impact on rate-cut expectations. According to FedWatch, the probability of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting remains near 85%, a sharp increase from below 30% last week. Geopolitical conditions, however, are shifting in a direction less supportive of gold. Signs suggest Russia and Ukraine are moving closer to a de-escalation agreement, with consultations in Geneva and positive remarks from both sides reducing the geopolitical risk premium that has supported gold for months. A Russian adviser told Al Jazeera that the U.S. plan contains “many positive aspects,” implying that diplomatic progress may be approaching. Even so, the Fed’s policy outlook remains the dominant driver. JPMorgan Chase has reversed its forecast and now expects the Fed to cut rates in December instead of delaying until January. Michael Feroli’s economics team cited dovish comments from key Fed officials — especially New York Fed President Williams — as the reason for the shift. JPMorgan had previously expected the Fed to stay put after the September jobs report. A new variable also attracting attention is the selection process for the next Fed Chair. Bloomberg reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett — seen as dovish — has emerged as a leading candidate. The likelihood of a more dovish Fed leadership further strengthens expectations of rate cuts, pressuring the dollar and supporting gold. Treasury Secretary Bessant said the nomination could be announced before Christmas. Overall, markets perceive that the key question now is how quickly the Fed can implement the rate-cutting cycle. Karl Schamotta of Corpay noted that markets are leaning toward expectations of more aggressive easing. In a similar move, Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold price forecast to 4,450 USD/oz, based on steady investment inflows and rising central bank gold-reserve demand. While geopolitical risks appear to be easing, the outlook for U.S. monetary policy continues to be the primary driver shaping gold’s direction in the short and medium term. Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold price is maintaining the main uptrend on the daily timeframe, still moving within the ascending channel established since August. The latest session closed around 4,147 USD/oz, trading above the short-term MA21 and approaching the technical resistance zone at 4,128 (Fib 0.236) and the major resistance at 4,216 USD. • Structure: Series of higher lows + rising channel intact → underlying trend remains bullish. • Key support: 3,972–4,000 USD (Fib 0.382 + channel lower boundary/MA21). If this zone holds, the bullish outlook remains valid. • Short-term resistance: 4,128 USD (Fib 0.236). A breakout above this level opens the path toward 4,216 USD and beyond. • Momentum: RSI rebounded from the neutral zone → buying pressure has returned but remains moderate; no clear bearish divergence. • Conclusion: Market structure remains bullish, but confirmation is needed via a breakout above 4,128 USD to validate a new bullish cycle. Summary: The main trend is still upward, but the market is awaiting a confirmed breakout of the 4,128–4,216 USD zone to enter a strong bullish phase. If price falls below 3,972–4,000 USD, the plan should be reassessed due to the risk of a pullback toward the 3,846 zone (Fib 0.5). Trading Plan SELL XAUUSD — 4195–4193 ⚡️ Stop Loss: 4199 Take Profit 1: 4187 Take Profit 2: 4181 BUY XAUUSD — 4109–4111 ⚡️ Stop Loss: 4105 Take Profit 1: 4117 Take Profit 2: 4123
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD ANALYSIS 11/27/2025🟦 1. Fundamental Analysis: a) Economy: • USD: The USD continues to weaken due to expectations that the FED will cut interest rates in 2026. Falling bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold → positive for GOLD. • US Stock Market: The U.S. market remains in the green thanks to expectations of monetary easing and the new administration’s stimulus package. Risk-on sentiment increases but does not pressure gold because the USD is still weak. • FED: The FED maintains a dovish tone, implying that inflation is moving in the right direction and they are ready to ease → supports gold’s bullish trend. • TRUMP: Plans for tax cuts and increased public spending → risk of a larger budget deficit → markets increase demand for hedging → gold becomes favored. • Gold ETF – SPDR: SPDR resumed strong net buying (4.57 tons yesterday), confirming large inflows returning to gold. This reinforces the current bullish trend. b) Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved, and Ukraine continues to escalate locally. → Safe-haven demand stays elevated, supporting gold. c) Market Sentiment: Current sentiment: risk-mixed • Rising stocks → risk-on • Falling USD + SPDR net buying → risk-off leaning toward gold → Overall: gold still holds a bullish advantage. However, the Thanksgiving holiday is reducing trading activity this week. 🟩 2. Technical Analysis: Trend: Gold is in a short-term uptrend after breaking the downtrend line, retesting successfully, and continuing upward. Price Structure: • Price consolidates around 4.36–4.173 • MA20–MA50 sloping upward • RSI remains above 50 → buyers dominant • Technical targets: 4.193 → 4.244 Key Levels: • Resistance: 4.173 – 4.193 – 4.244 • Support: 4.136 – 4.096 – 4.062 🟧 3. Yesterday’s Market (26/11/25): GOLD: • Tapped support at 4.136 and bounced strongly to 4.173 • No bearish reversal candlestick • Uptrend remains solid with stable volume USD: USD weakness is clear → supports GOLD’s bullish continuation. SPDR: SPDR continues net buying, confirming strong demand. 🟥 4. Trading Strategy Today (27/11/25): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4195 – 4193 SL: 4199 TP1: 4187 TP2: 4181 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4109 – 4111 SL: 4105 TP1: 4117 TP2: 4123
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Signals_100pips
2
GOLD ANALYSIS 11/28/20251. Fundamental Analysis: a) Economy: • USD: The USD is slightly weakening after the holiday period; low market liquidity means the decline is not strong. Investors are waiting for new signals from next week’s data. Gold may spike unexpectedly if Japan intervenes in the Yen, causing USD weakness. • U.S. Stock Market: U.S. equities were closed for Thanksgiving. The general trend remains slightly positive with mild risk-on flow, but not strong enough to push gold in the opposite direction. • FED: The Fed maintains a “cautious” stance with no new signals. The scenario still leans toward keeping interest rates unchanged, which provides mild support for gold. A change in the Fed Chair increases the probability of rate cuts, which is supportive for gold. • TRUMP: The Trump administration continues to move toward corporate tax cuts and promoting domestic production. This creates medium-term pressure on the USD → indirectly supporting gold. • Gold ETF – SPDR: SPDR made no buys or sells; holdings remain unchanged. This reflects a wait-and-see sentiment, with no major capital inflow into gold yet. b) Geopolitics: No significant developments in the last 24 hours. Global conflicts remain simmering but not strong enough to create a major boost for gold during the holiday session. c) Market Sentiment: • The market is still in a sideways state with mild risk-on sentiment. • Capital has not fully flowed back into gold, so any upside moves mainly come from technical factors rather than fundamental news. 2. Technical Analysis: The 15-minute chart shows: • Price has broken out of the 4,155–4,170 accumulation zone with strong upward momentum. • RSI is rising steeply and has entered extreme overbought → short-term uptrend is intact but a slight correction is expected. • Price structure has just formed an accumulation pattern. • Technical target based on range box and projection: 4,207. • EMA 20–50 are sloping upward, confirming bullish momentum. Note: Morning breakouts are often retested → watch for BUY entries at the breakout zone. RESISTANCE: 4,193 – 4,207 SUPPORT: 4,136 – 4,096 3. Yesterday’s Market (27/11/25): • GOLD traded almost sideways within 4,143 – 4,170 throughout the day due to low liquidity from Thanksgiving. • SPDR stayed out; the market is waiting for U.S. data to return. • The accumulation structure lasted 24 hours → this morning’s breakout followed the pattern precisely. 4. Strategy for Today (28/11/25): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4235 – 4233 SL: 4239 TP1: 4227 TP2: 4221 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4162 – 4164 SL: 4158 TP1: 4170 TP2: 4176
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Signals_100pips
GOLD breaks above $4,190, time to exit accumulation4,190 USD/oz is a temporary step forward, with price testing the upper boundary amid thin liquidity (holiday period) and sharply rising expectations of Fed easing. However, confirming an uptrend requires a daily close above the stronger technical resistance zone (around 4,216 USD) and sustaining that level. Reasons not to rush to confirm a “breakout from the accumulation range” • The 4,190 USD level appeared during a low-liquidity session, making it prone to “false breaks” caused by thin trading. • Recent volatility has been driven largely by monetary policy expectations (FedWatch ~80% probability of a December rate cut) rather than any immediate fundamental shift in gold’s supply–demand balance. Expectations can reverse quickly if Fed outlook or economic data changes. • Geopolitical scenarios (Ukraine, Middle East) and central bank gold demand provide medium–long-term support, but these are “slow” drivers and cannot replace the need for technical confirmation to start a new bull phase. Elements supporting a breakout (if sustained) • Dovish comments from Fed officials (Waller, Daly, Williams) continue to reinforce rate-cut bets, while news about the potential Fed Chair candidate (Hassett) increases expectations of easier policy. • Stable physical demand from Asia (India has recently kept importing strongly at ~14.7B USD) and steady official purchases by central banks. • Rising global risk sentiment (shift into safe-haven assets) may push gold above 4,200 if accompanied by stronger Fed-easing signals. Warning factors for a pullback (downside risks) • Unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data (labor, retail sales) may reduce rate-cut expectations, pushing USD/yields higher and pressuring gold lower. • Thin holiday liquidity increases the risk of gaps and exaggerated moves. Outlook: If policy conditions and geopolitics continue to support (dovish Fed + geopolitical risk), gold has a high probability of breaking out from the accumulation range and starting a true bullish cycle before/early 2026. In the short term (a few sessions to a few weeks), the market remains vulnerable to fake-outs. Technical Analysis – OANDA:XAUUSD Gold price has surpassed the 4,190 USD/oz zone—a positive sign but not yet enough to confirm a new uptrend. Structurally, price remains within the medium-term ascending channel, holding above the trendline and above the short-term MA21 (~4,056 USD). Notable Fibonacci levels: • 0.236 ≈ 4,128 USD • 0.382 ≈ 3,973 USD The 3,970–4,000 USD zone remains a major support shield. RSI is recovering from the neutral region (not overbought), showing the uptrend has a foundation but hasn't accelerated. Necessary condition: Hold above 3,972–4,000 USD and avoid breaking below the ascending channel trendline. Sufficient condition (confirmation of a new bullish cycle): A daily close above 4,216 USD/oz (Fib resistance zone / intraday peak). Accompanied by: • RSI breaking above 55–60 • Price holding above MA21 with a successful retest If these conditions appear together, the probability of moving toward 4,300 — 4,380 USD/oz increases significantly. Short-term bearish reversal scenario: Failure to hold 3,972 USD opens the door to a deeper correction toward 3,846 USD (Fib 0.5) and then 3,720 USD (Fib 0.618). Risk management note: Volatility is still heavily driven by Fed news and geopolitics. Keep position sizes small, set clear stop-losses, and avoid holding large positions during policy events. Trade Ideas (as provided) SELL XAUUSD at 4213 – 4211 ⚡️ • Stop Loss: 4217 • Take Profit 1: 4205 • Take Profit 2: 4199 BUY XAUUSD at 4134 – 4136 ⚡️ • Stop Loss: 4130 • Take Profit 1: 4142 • Take Profit 2: 4148
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD ANALYSIS 11/26/20251. Fundamental Analysis: a) Economy: USD: • The USD is leaning toward a slight decline as the market expects the FED to keep interest rates unchanged and possibly make minor cuts in the coming months. • This supports gold because a weaker USD → bullish for gold in the short term. U.S. Stock Market: • U.S. equities have rebounded following stable corporate earnings; risk-on flows are returning. • This limits gold’s upside, but does not create strong pressure as the bullish momentum is not too strong. FED: • The FED continues to emphasize a cautious policy stance, with no additional rate hikes. • This keeps bond yields low → supportive for gold in the medium term. TRUMP (Trump Administration): • Trump’s policies on boosting manufacturing and cutting taxes continue to create expectations of rising inflation. • Higher inflation → long-term positive for gold, although it may cause short-term volatility. Gold ETF – SPDR: • SPDR has not sold off and maintains holdings around 104 tons. • The “no selling” stance → neutral to slightly bullish signal. b) Geopolitics: • Conditions remain relatively stable over the past 24 hours. • The market continues to monitor trade tensions and financial conflicts between major economic blocs. • Any geopolitical disturbance increases safe-haven demand for gold. c) Market Sentiment: • Overall sentiment is slightly risk-on: U.S. stocks stable, risk appetite improving. • However, the market maintains a degree of caution ahead of upcoming GDP and PCE reports. • Therefore, gold may not rise strongly, but it maintains solid price support and short-term upside. • End-of-month and end-of-year periods typically see lower trading activity. 2. Technical Analysis: a) Market Structure: • Gold remains in a short-term uptrend with a clear sequence of higher lows from the 4029 zone. • The rising trendline is still intact. b) Price Action Signals: • The 15m chart shows a clean bullish pattern. • A retracement to 4096 may occur before heading higher. • Upside targets remain toward 4193. c) Technical Indicators: • RSI is neutral → suitable for a pullback before continuation. • MA20 – MA50 expanding upward → reinforces the bullish bias. d) Main Scenario: • Pullback to 4096, then bounce upward → targets: 4158 → 4193. • Strategy is to follow price action at key levels. At resistance zones, always wait for confirmation of breakout or rejection before trading. Favor setups aligned with the main trend. e) Key Levels: Resistance: 4158 – 4193 – 4244 Support: 4096 – 4062 – 4029 3. Market Summary (25/11/25): • GOLD tested the 4040–4060 area and bounced upward according to trend structure. • Price range was relatively narrow but still maintained a bullish base. • No major news catalysts; market moved mainly on technicals. 4. Strategy for Today (26/11/25): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4213 – 4211 SL: 4217 TP1: 4205 TP2: 4199 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4133 – 4135 SL: 4129 TP1: 4141 TP2: 4147
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Signals_100pips
GOLD opened with a significant increaseOANDA:XAUUSD opened the morning of November 26 with a significant gain, following a volatile session yesterday when the market absorbed two conflicting signals: unexpected progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as December. In the European session yesterday, spot gold fell to a daily low of $4,109.47/ounce, as news that Ukraine had “basically” agreed to a US-proposed peace plan boosted global risk appetite. Market sentiment immediately reflected capital flows out of defensive assets. However, in the New York session, gold reversed sharply, hitting a peak of $4,159.39/ounce, recovering nearly $50 from the previous low. At the end of Tuesday’s session, gold stood at $4,130.76/ounce, down slightly by 0.1%. By this morning, November 26, the price had returned to the $4,164/ounce area, up nearly 1% on the day. Geopolitics: Peace Signals Weaken Need for Shelter, But Not Enough to Change the Game Kyiv has agreed in principle to Washington’s peace proposal, according to US and Ukrainian officials. Some sensitive details remain to be worked out, but many contentious points have been tweaked. The Trump administration’s original 28-point plan has been whittled down to 19, with some provisions “at least worth considering,” according to The Washington Post. Negotiations began in Geneva on November 23, and both Bloomberg and US officials described the process as streamlined to reach a quick deal. President Trump even declared a peace deal “very close.” This news immediately sent gold prices sharply lower yesterday, demonstrating that the market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, even when peace signals are still preliminary. Technical analysis and suggestions OANDA:XAUUSD Gold price maintains the main uptrend on the daily chart, trading around $4,160/oz within the medium-term ascending channel. The price is currently above the short-term MA21 (~4,056) and has bounced from the support zone around Fib 0.382 (≈3.973); RSI is recovering slightly from the neutral zone, indicating weakening selling pressure. The 4.128 (0.236 Fib) zone is the first short-term resistance; 4.216 is the key resistance that determines the possibility of opening a new bullish cycle (extremely important). If the price holds above 3.972–4.000 and closes sustainably above 4.128, the possibility of continuing to challenge 4.216 → 4.380 increases. Conversely, a break below 3.972 will weaken the bullish structure and open the door to the 3.846 (0.5 Fib) zone or lower. Macro backdrop: Fed easing expectations and geopolitical risks continue to be the support base; positive news on interest rate cuts will increase the probability of a breakout above the 4.216 resistance. BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4235 - 4233⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4239 →Take Profit 1 4227 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4221 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4153 - 4155⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4149 →Take Profit 1 4161 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4167
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
XAU/USD ANALYSIS 11/25/20251. Fundamental Analysis: a) Economy: • USD: The USD is slightly weakening due to expectations that the FED will keep rates unchanged and may deliver more dovish signals in speeches this week. • U.S. Stocks: Wall Street inched higher last night, with the market leaning toward a risk-on sentiment, which usually weighs on gold. However, the gains were not strong → gold is not under heavy pressure. • FED: The FED continues to emphasize a “data-dependent” stance, but the market is starting to believe in the possibility of rate cuts in the coming months. This supports gold in the medium term. • TRUMP Administration: The new administration prioritizes economic recovery, deregulation, and tax cuts → which may stimulate the stock market, but geopolitical risks still linger → gold benefits whenever volatility rises. • Gold ETF (SPDR): SPDR has been buying and selling alternately with no clear trend. However, recent selling volume is not large → no major bearish pressure on gold. On Nov 24, the fund bought 0.29 tons—small, likely probing while waiting for upcoming news and market reactions. b) Politics: Tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved; additionally, U.S.–China trade competition still holds the potential for new conflicts → gold maintains its safe-haven appeal. c) Market Sentiment: The market is slightly risk-on, but within a narrow range and lacking strong momentum → reversal risks are always present. The “waiting for FED this week” sentiment makes gold move more technically. 2. Technical Analysis: The 30-minute timeframe gives extremely clear signals: • Price has broken above the descending trendline extending from the Nov 17 high. • A new uptrend (short- to medium-term) is forming. • Extended targets if momentum holds: 4,244 – 4,276. • RSI is in the mid-high zone but not overbought → still room for upside. • MA20 has crossed above MA50 nicely, supporting the bullish trend. Overall: Gold is likely retesting the breakout and continuing the upward trend. RESISTANCE: 4,193 – 4,244 – 4,276 SUPPORT: 4,096 – 4,040 – 4,029 – 4,000 3. Previous Market Session: • Gold surged strongly from the 4,040 zone, breaking the descending trendline and the ascending triangle. • Price closed above all short-term EMAs → buying pressure dominates. • Volume increased during the breakout → confirming the trend. 4. Strategy for Today (Nov 25, 2025): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4195 – 4193 SL: 4199 TP1: 4187 TP2: 4181 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4084 – 4086 SL: 4080 TP1: 4092 TP2: 4098
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Signals_100pips
XAUUSD starting a new short-term Bullish LegGold (XAUUSD) is testing today once more its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Having held the Higher Lows trend-line two times already since the November 13 pull-back, a second break above the 4H MA50 can technically confirm a quick test of the Lower Highs trend-line of the Triangle. As a result, our short-term Target is 4180 (also just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level). A closing above the Lower Highs trend-line, potentially means the emergence of a Channel Up (blue), in which case we will re-buy the first 4H pull-back and have a final Target at 4275 (the 0.786 Fib). Long-term we believe Gold is going to have a bearish 2026. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
GOLD market after “Fed fever”, growth momentum is challengedOANDA:XAUUSD prices remain in the spotlight as the market has been experiencing a series of strong fluctuations following mixed signals from the Federal Reserve and labor data. However, developments show that the risk of price declines is increasing as the precious metal has repeatedly failed in its efforts to hold the $4,100/ounce area, the first resistance level of this year's hot period. For most of 2025, gold has risen more than 55%, despite high bond yields and a strong dollar. But as the Fed’s final policy meeting approaches and the market lacks consensus on the path of interest rate cuts, the traditional correlation between gold, interest rates, and the dollar is returning. According to CME’s FedWatch, the market still expects a more than 70% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates next month, while economists maintain a more cautious assessment of only about 50/50. This puts the upcoming economic data in a decisive position for both market expectations and gold’s stability in this trading week. Fed’s Dovish Return: A Direct Impact on Gold’s Upward Momentum OANDA:XAUUSD Gold settled in the first half of the week as demand for havens increased, while the ADP report showed that the private sector cut an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks to November 1. The 4,000 USD/ounce level continues to be the key threshold determining the short-term trend, as the market is moving within a correction zone but has not yet broken the medium-term bullish structure. Technical analysis and suggestions OANDA:XAUUSD 1. Price Structure & Overall Trend • Price is still within the ascending channel that has extended since August, although the range has narrowed compared to October. The October peak around 4,128 USD acts as a major medium-term resistance. • The current decline is still only a pullback within the uptrend, as long as price holds above 3,972 USD (Fib 0.382) and especially the 4,000 USD psychological & technical support. 2. Key Technical Zones • Nearest resistance: 4,128 – 4,216 USD (A strong resistance cluster where price has been repeatedly rejected in November.) • Nearest support: 4,055 – 4,000 USD (This zone aligns with Fib 0.382 and the short-term bottom.) • Deeper supports: 3,846 USD (Fib 0.5) – Important for a deep pullback scenario 3,720 USD (Fib 0.618) – Reaction support in case of strong macro volatility 3. Price Momentum – RSI • RSI has moved out of oversold territory but remains weak and has not re-established a bullish structure. • The RSI-MA21 is flat → the market lacks strong momentum; sideways movement or a retest of the 4,000 USD zone is highly likely. 4. Short-Term Outlook (Next Week) • Market bias: Neutral to slightly bearish, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. • Price is likely to retest 4,000 USD, then form one of two scenarios: o Hold 4,000 → rebound to 4,128 – 4,216 USD o Break 4,000 → drop to 3,972 – 3,846 USD 👉 Conclusion: 4,000 USD is the decisive level for the short-term trend. BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4102 - 4100⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4106 →Take Profit 1 4094 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4088 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4016 - 4018⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4012 →Take Profit 1 4024 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4030
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Weekly Market Forecast: Indices Are Weak! Wait For Sells!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of Nov 24-29th. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by RT_Money
2
XAU/USD ANALYSIS 11/24/20251. Fundamental Analysis: a) Economy: • USD: The USD is stabilizing after a recent period of weakness as markets expect the Fed to maintain lower interest rates in 2025, reducing pressure on gold. • US Stock Market: U.S. equities are seeing slight corrections, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of this week’s FOMC minutes. When stocks stall, gold often benefits. • FED: Recent weak economic data has increased expectations that the Fed will cut rates earlier in 2025. Any dovish signals from the Fed will support gold prices. • TRUMP Administration: The Trump administration is considering a new economic stimulus package and adjustments to import taxes. Protectionist-leaning policies may cause volatility in the USD, but generally increase safe-haven demand — supporting gold. • Gold ETF (SPDR): SPDR has recently shown mixed buying and selling, indicating capital flows are not yet surging but also no longer experiencing heavy outflows. This is a neutral signal but slightly supportive of price stability. b) Politics: Tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the upcoming EU elections keep defensive capital flows active. These factors help support gold and limit the risk of deep declines. c) Market Sentiment: The market is in a mild risk-off state, with capital shifting toward safe assets, though not strongly yet. This aligns with gold maintaining its base and having the potential to break out if key technical levels are breached. 2. Technical Analysis: • Price is maintaining a long-term uptrend line from early November. • A compression triangle pattern has been broken to the upside — a clear bullish signal. • The 4,064 level is a key retest zone currently being tested. • If this zone holds, upside targets will expand. • RSI on the M30 timeframe is in a balanced zone, not overbought — favorable for further upside movement. Conclusion: The trend leans bullish as long as price does not break below the trendline and the 4,029 zone. RESISTANCE: 4,096 – 4,125 – 4,193 SUPPORT: 4,029 – 4,000 – 3,964 3. Yesterday’s Market (21/11/25): • Gold fluctuated strongly from the 4,029 support area and bounced back along the trendline. • Buyers dominated late in the session, setting up a foundation for today’s recovery. • Volatility has been narrowing, signaling a potential breakout. 4. Strategy for Today (24/11/25): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4147 – 4145 SL: 4153 TP1: 4137 TP2: 4129 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 3964 – 3966 SL: 3960 TP1: 3972 TP2: 3978
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Signals_100pips
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 24 - Nov 28]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price continued to hold above the support level of 4,000 USD/oz, but the risk of price decline is increasing due to geopolitical tensions and expectations that the FED will cut interest rates at the December meeting is not enough to create a strong rebound for gold prices. The gold price next week may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, waiting for US economic data to clarify the FED's interest rate reduction roadmap. Retail sales and producer price index (PPI) reports, along with other data due next week, could help us get a better idea of ​​the US economic situation. If the US economic data is below expectations, it could increase expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, pushing gold back above $4,100/oz next week. However, if these data continue to reduce expectations for a Fed rate cut, gold could break the important support level of $4,000/oz next week, opening the door to $3,845-$3,800/oz. However, in the long term, gold prices are still expected to continue to rise as central banks continue to buy, although the pace of buying may slow down due to the high gold price. Moreover, gold has proven its value, even when compared to other stores of value such as cryptocurrencies, due to the sharp decline of bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the appeal of gold is still very large and has no rivals in the financial investment environment. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, an important support level is established around the 4,000 USD/oz threshold. If this level is broken, the gold price is at risk of falling deeply to 3,900 or even 3,850 USD/oz. In case the gold price forms a double bottom pattern at 4,000 and breaks through the 4,132 resistance level, there is a chance to recover above the 4,200 USD/oz threshold. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4176 - 4174⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4180 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3964 - 3966⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3960
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD rises amid uncertain signals from US economyOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise in Wednesday's session, as investors increased their holdings of safe-haven assets amid the delay of US employment data due to the government shutdown and the market prepared for the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting. As of the morning of November 20, spot gold was trading around $4,078/ounce, up about $11, or 0.27%, from the previous day. Gold's rise coincided with the stabilization of global stocks after a sell-off related to concerns about artificial intelligence valuations. However, investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of Nvidia's business results and a series of US economic data due this week. Weakening labor market signals support OANDA:XAUUSD Data released on Tuesday showed the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits rose to a two-month high in mid-October, a sign that the labor market may be losing momentum. Against this backdrop, any signs of labor market weakness would reinforce expectations that the Fed may have to ease policy more quickly, providing support for gold, a non-yielding asset that benefits from lower interest rates. Market focus: Fed minutes and delayed jobs data Investors are turning their attention to the minutes from the Fed’s October meeting, due at 2 p.m. ET. Despite the 25 basis point cut at its most recent meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell continued to maintain a cautious stance, leaving open the possibility of a pause in easing if inflation risks return. Separately, the September jobs report, delayed by the government shutdown, is due out on Thursday. This is seen as an early indicator of economic growth strength, with Reuters forecasting non-farm payrolls to rise by around 50,000 jobs. Any weaker-than-expected figure could boost haven demand and continue to support gold prices. Rising interest rate cut expectations, a key driver of OANDA:XAUUSD According to CME FedWatch, the market now rates a 51% chance of the Fed cutting rates again at its next meeting, up from 46% in the previous session. This increase in expectations is the core factor triggering capital flows to gold, in the context of falling real yields and investors looking for value preservation as the growth outlook becomes more uncertain. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND SUGGESTIONS OANDA:XAUUSD After recovering from the bottom around $4,000, gold price hit the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $4,128 and was immediately rejected, showing that profit-taking pressure is still strong. • The main trend is still up, as the price is still in the medium-term uptrend channel and above the important MA line. • The 3,972 area (Fib 0.382) is acting as short-term support, accompanied by the MA line right below around 3,942. • Since it has not been able to break the 0.382 Fib level, gold is currently not in the best condition for a new uptrend. RSI has rebounded but has not yet exceeded 60, showing that the buyers have not fully returned, but there are no signs of strong weakness. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4108 - 4106⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4112 →Take Profit 1 4100 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4094 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3982 - 3984⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3978 →Take Profit 1 3990 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3996
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
4
GOLD $GC Levels and Patterns AnalysisTraders and Investors, Gold (XAUUSD) has been consolidating mostly but still has been giving a lot of great short term and swing trade opportunities. I have updated the important levels and zones which can act as support and resistance. They should guide us a bit for the best possible trade opportunities. There as possible W pattern forming. It has not formed or completed yet. It must first break the trend line and confirm the break. BTW, that trend line can also give us a good opportunities around it. Next, the price has to break the mid point of potential W pattern. Once it has done that, it can complete the W pattern. Trade what you see, wait for the confirmations and manage the risk as always. Follow for more. Please support this analysis by liking, commenting, and sharing with friends, colleagues, traders, and trading communities. Thanks👍🙂
TVC:GOLD
by vikinsa
1
COPPER / GOLD & ISM PMI = Critical For AltseasonBeen seeing a lot of commentary on COPPER / GOLD. This is a strong indication of industrial growth in the economy, as the demand for copper rises with build-outs. The ISM PMI has a very strong correlation with C/G, also showing strength in the economy, as consumers buy more which gives businesses the ability to expand operations. In a nutshell, these charts portray “Retail” ie “Main Street”. There’s a very real possibility that we do not get our typical Alt Season at all this cycle if C/G & ISM PMI do not have a violent move up in the next few months. (more on this later) The last time we saw such a divergence between these two was in January 2016 where it took C/G ~230 days to turn-up. This would put Alt-Season Q4 ’26 - Q1 ’27, which makes sense theoretically based on Trump’s suspected stimulus plans which would come right before mid-terms. This would give us our typical year-long bear market which has snuck up on us all because we lacked the retail euphoria phase due to very weak retail participation. HOPIUM: In 2016 When the ISM climbed above 50, COPPER soon found a bottom and Alts ripped. Notice the bullish divergence on the RSI during that time, same as we are seeing now. It looking like C/G may have found a bottom on this multi-decade parallel channel. *Our livelihood depends on the ISM showing immense strength in the coming months so that C/G can follow.
COMEX:HG1!
by jonnieking
Defensive money returns to GOLD as US labor data worsensOANDA:XAUUSD prices maintained a slight decline in the Asian session, trading around $4,075/ounce as the market turned its attention to the Fed meeting minutes. The upside momentum is weakening, but downside pressure remains limited as money flows continue to seek support from the prospect of easing policy. New data from ADP reinforces the view that the US labor market is losing momentum. The private sector lost an average of 2,500 jobs a week in the four weeks to November 1, as a host of large companies from Amazon to Target announced plans to cut staff. A report from Challenger showed the number of planned layoffs in October was the highest in more than two decades. Jobless claims rose to 1.9 million, and data from the Cleveland Fed showed 39,000 layoff announcements last month. These signals are emerging just as the market remains concerned about a weakening U.S. economy, even though expectations for rate cuts are not yet firmly established. Still, sentiment has shifted: the FedWatch tool now shows nearly a 50% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, up from below 40% earlier this week. This development has helped gold rebound after three consecutive losing sessions, especially since the precious metal typically benefits in a low-rate environment. However, gold’s recovery remains relatively fragile. Prices fell more than 3% on Friday and dropped another 1% on Monday as expectations for Fed easing were revised. This has made the market more sensitive to signals from monetary policy and economic data. The short-term focus is on the minutes of the late-October FOMC meeting and the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, both to be released this week. Forecasts suggest U.S. job growth may slow to around 55,000 in September—a pace reflecting cooling hiring demand. Several Fed officials have struck a more dovish tone. Governor Waller described the labor market as “weak” and noted that core inflation is moving closer to the 2% target. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin expects upcoming data to offer more clues on the direction of the economy. These comments, combined with the market’s interpretation of soft labor signals, are creating an environment in which each new data point has the potential to significantly impact gold pricing. In my view, gold is likely to continue trading within a narrow range as the market awaits clearer confirmation from the Fed while simultaneously assessing the risks of a slowing U.S. economy. Rate-cut expectations remain the key factor supporting gold in the current phase. Technical analysis and suggestions OANDA:XAUUSD Recovery Trend and Conditions for a New Uptrend This morning's developments show that gold prices are trying to recover after a long correction, with a bounce back to the $4,070/ounce area, corresponding to the lower border of the medium-term Ascending Channel. The price structure has remained within the uptrend channel since August, but the momentum has weakened significantly after the price failed twice before the strong resistance zone of $4,216/ounce (Fib 0.236). The $3,972–$3,990/ounce (Fib 0.382) level continues to act as an important buffer zone, and the fact that the price did not break this zone in the recent decline is a positive signal. RSI hit the oversold zone and is bouncing up, indicating that selling pressure is weakening and the market is entering a rebalancing phase. For a new uptrend to form, it is necessary: Necessary condition: price holds above 3,972 USD/ounce, remaining above the rising trend line of the price channel. Sufficient condition: close above 4,128 USD/ounce and then confirm above 4,216 USD/ounce, the key resistance zone that determines the return to a strong uptrend. Only when these two conditions are met, the medium-term uptrend structure will be fully restored. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4116 - 4114⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4120 →Take Profit 1 4108 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4102 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4025 - 4027⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4021 →Take Profit 1 4033 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4039
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold Holds $4000Gold has retraced lower from last week’s high, though it is holding above 4000 for now. Two bullish pinbars have also formed on the daily chart, hinting at a potential swing low. A break above yesterday’s high could see bulls target the 4200 handle, with a move through the 4250 high bringing the 4300 handle and monthly S1 into view. However, keep in mind the weekly chart may be forming a Wave B within a broader ABC correction. I’ll also be watching for signs of a swing high on the daily chart and a potential resumption of the move lower from the record high. A 100% projection of Wave A from B implies a downside target near 3800. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by City Index
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 17 - Nov 21]Last week, OANDA:XAUUSD prices rose from $3,999/oz to $4,245/oz, but then fell sharply to $4,032/oz and closed the week at $4,084/oz. The reason gold prices rose sharply last week after news of the US government reopening was because White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may never release October employment and inflation data because the federal government was shut down during this period, not doing statistical work. These comments put the USD under selling pressure, pushing gold prices above $4,200/oz. However, hawkish comments from Fed officials later pushed gold prices down sharply to $4,032/oz. Specifically, St. Louis Fed Governor Alberto Musalem said that the labor market is expected to remain at near full employment and the Fed needs to be cautious in operating monetary policy at this time. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed Governor Neel Kashkari emphasized that inflation is still too high, meaning the Fed should pause interest rate cuts. The sharp decline in market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term. However, gold prices will hardly fall sharply as macro risks and geopolitical conflicts persist and central banks’ demand for gold continues to increase. 📌According to technical analysis, the support level for gold prices next week is at 3,930 USD/oz. If it holds above this level, gold prices will continue to hover around 4,000 USD/oz in the short term. However, if gold prices fall below this level next week, they may fall to the 3,800 USD/oz area. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4176 - 4174⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4180 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3949 - 3951⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3945
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Far from signaling a BUY yet.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a +1 year Channel Up and has found itself on a correction (Bearish Leg) since it's All Time High (ATH), which was a Higher High for the pattern, 1 month ago. Despite this -11% Bearish Leg so far, it hasn't even broken yet below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is something it has done on both previous Bearish Legs. As you can see those have been fairly similar to the current one (-10.92% and -9.32% respectively). All started after roughly +40% Bullish Legs led to those. Notice also that both Bullish Legs had to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before the started. At the same time the 1W RSI hit its Buy Zone. As a result, Gold hasn't waved a buy signal yet. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD: The Daily and Weekly +FVGs Hold The Key! In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Nov. 17-21st. Gold is still strong, but struggled to move higher last week. It is currently inside a bullish FVG, and this would be the key PD Array to watch. If the market shows respect to the +FVG, then expect higher prices. If it fails, and we see the market close below it on a daily close basis, buys should be avoided until the Weekly +FVG is reached. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!
by RT_Money
GOLD: Look For Bullish Breakout From The +FVGIn this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Nov. 10-14th. Gold has been consolidating in a +FVG since last week... and it is still holding! Wait for price to break the high of the consolidation and then look for long setups. Be mindful that price may sweep the sell side LQ before it moves higher. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
4