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Gc1!!

Gold 4h Potential Short Confluence🔱 Just wanted to highlight this confluence 🔱 The yellow L-MLH and white U-MLH are lining up to form a potential short setup. Today’s selling pressure is also giving an early warning signal. If we open and close below the white U-MLH, we’ll likely retest it before any major drop. Shorting this move will require a decent stop, given the inherent volatility. So maybe a play with an Options Strategy would be a more secure way. Let’s see if the party finally takes a breather.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by HowToChart
GOLD corrects as US announces ceasefire agreementSpot OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply by nearly $30 in early Asian trading on October 9, to around $4,012 an ounce, after news of a historic ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was confirmed. Markets reacted quickly to US President Donald Trump's announcement that the two sides had signed the first phase of a Washington-brokered peace plan. All hostages would be released and Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza according to an agreed roadmap. Trump described it as "the first step towards a lasting and sustainable peace in the Middle East", and thanked Qatar, Egypt and Turkey for their role in mediating. Bloomberg reported that the deal was signed in Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt), after several rounds of tense negotiations. According to the agreement, Hamas will release about 20 living hostages and return the remains of more than 20 dead people, while Israel will free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The comprehensive ceasefire took effect from 12:00 noon Cairo time, with guarantees from the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. In the short term, the sudden improvement in global risk appetite following this news is the main reason for the decline in gold prices. Investors shifted to higher-yielding assets, while the recent hot rally pushed technical indicators into overbought territory, triggering short-term profit-taking. The previous day, gold prices had surpassed the $4,059 mark per ounce, a new record high, thanks to increased safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions and loose monetary policy. However, news from the Middle East has temporarily reversed the trend, showing the high sensitivity of gold to geopolitical developments in the current uncertain period. Outlook: Investors will closely monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the reaction of the US bond market in the coming days. If risk sentiment continues to improve and yields increase slightly, gold may temporarily correct before establishing a new accumulation zone around the $4,000/ounce threshold. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD • Trend: Gold remains in the ascending channel formed since August 2025, with a higher peak-to-trough structure. • Short-term resistance: 4,044 /SD (Fib 0.382) and the $4,110–$4,180 zone (Fib 0.5–$0.618). This is an important resistance zone in the short term. • Nearest support: $3,955 (Fib 0.236), followed by the $3,870–$3,900 zone, coinciding with the MA21 line. • RSI: Remains above 70, indicating overbought conditions and the possibility of a technical correction before further increases. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4092 - 4090⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4096 →Take Profit 1 4084 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4078 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3985 - 3987⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3981 →Take Profit 1 3993 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3999
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
Has Gold Reached Its Fullest Potential?Has gold reached its fullest potential? It depends on the US dollar. As we can see when dollar declines, gold went up. i) From 2001 to 2011, when dollar was down, gold went up. ii) From 2017 to 2020, when dollar was down, gold went up. iii) And from 2022 to current, when dollar is down, gold is up. With de-dollarization, this also means gold may have more upside potential. Mirco Gold Futures and Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
GOLD surpasses $4,000, political risks and Fed rate cutOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise in Asian trading on Wednesday morning, hovering around $4,006/ounce, approaching a record high. The gains were fueled by the risk of a US government shutdown, global political uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease monetary policy soon. The US government shutdown has entered its second week, delaying many key economic data, including the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. This lack of information increases the level of uncertainty about monetary policy and forces investors to predict the direction of the Fed based on market signals rather than data. According to CME FedWatch, traders are now pricing in an 84% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. The market is also pricing in a high probability of another cut in December. The turmoil in the US government coupled with weak economic signals is reinforcing gold’s safe-haven status, especially in the context of a weak US dollar and volatile stock markets. Alongside monetary policy, geopolitical risks are also playing a key role in sustaining demand for the precious metal. In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu unexpectedly resigned just hours after taking office, raising concerns about the budget crisis and financial stability in the eurozone. Meanwhile, in Japan, Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the ruling party leadership election has raised expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its easing policy for longer, thereby supporting gold prices. In the currency market, the US dollar index (DXY) recovered slightly to around 98.7 points, but the upward trend was limited by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.12%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. If the non-farm payroll data after the government reopening shows a slowdown in job growth, investors believe this will further strengthen expectations of a new easing cycle by the Fed, thereby creating more momentum for gold to move towards the $4,100/ounce mark in the short term. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD Trend analysis: • Gold prices have been in a strong uptrend since mid-August, with a series of dense green candles and stable buying pressure. • Currently, the price has surpassed the psychological level of 4,000 USD/ounce, closing the day above this level, showing that buyers are still in control of the market. • The EMA50 (blue) continues to slope up, reflecting that the medium-term trend is still very positive. • RSI remains above 70, signaling a mild overbought condition, but there is no clear bearish divergence signal, meaning that the uptrend still has room to run. Important technical zones: • Nearest resistance: $4,044 (0.382 Fibonacci level). • Extended resistance: $4,113 and $4,182 (0.5 and 0.618 Fib) – potential targets for the next bullish wave. • Short-term support: $3,959 (0.236 Fib) – important support zone for intraday recovery. • Stronger support: $3,896 – $3,871, which coincide with the previous top and the lower edge of the rising channel. Note: • RSI is approaching the overbought zone, so a short-term technical correction may occur before continuing to increase. • If the price closes below $3,950, be cautious of the possibility of a short-term recovery wave. The main trend of gold is still strong, reinforced by technical factors and the macro context. In the short term, the $3,960 area is a potential buying point, with targets towards $4,110 - $4,180. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4038 - 4036⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4042 →Take Profit 1 4030 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4024 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3974 - 3976⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3970 →Take Profit 1 3982 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3988
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD hits new peak with global crisisSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to climb in Asia on October 7, approaching the all-time high of $4,000 an ounce, amid global markets rocked by political turmoil in the US and Europe. Gold had earlier gained 1.9% in the first session of the week, reaching $3,976.25 an ounce, despite a stronger US dollar and high US bond yields. In Washington, the budget impasse continues to drag the US government into a second week of shutdown. Both spending bills proposed by Democrats and Republicans failed to pass the Senate. The shutdown is costing the US economy about $15 billion a week, or 0.1 percentage point of GDP, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. If it lasts a month, the consequences could be 43,000 jobs lost and as much as $30 billion in lost spending. The lack of economic data due to the shutdown has also made it difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess the situation and make decisions on interest rates. However, the market is still pricing in the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% this month, a factor that is seen as a strong support for gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset. In Europe, things were less calm. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu abruptly resigned just hours before a new cabinet was to be announced, deepening the political deadlock and threatening efforts to rein in the budget deficit in the country with the highest debt in the eurozone. Meanwhile, in Japan, the prospect of Sanae Takaichi becoming the new Prime Minister has also made investors cautious, as monetary policy and public spending may continue to be loosened. Gold prices have increased by nearly 50% this year, supported by the Fed's interest rate cuts, a wave of gold purchases from central banks, and escalating global geopolitical tensions, once again affirming the precious metal's position as the "last refuge" of the international financial market. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD Main Trend • Gold prices are in a strong and sustainable uptrend, as shown by: o The price line is firmly above the medium-term MA line, with a clear positive slope. o The uptrend channel (parallel trendline) has not been broken yet, and prices continue to remain within the upper zone of the channel. o RSI remains above 60, indicating that buying power is still dominant. Important zones • Strong resistance: 4,000 USD/oz, this is a major psychological level, also coincides with the Fibonacci 0.236 zone. • Near support: around 3,895 – 3,870 USD/oz, which is the confluence of the lower edge of the rising channel and the old peak zone. Note If the price breaks decisively above $4,000 with high volume, the target can be extended to the $4,280 – $4,405 zone. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4000 - 3998⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4004 →Take Profit 1 3992 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3986 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3919 - 3921⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3915 →Take Profit 1 3927 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3933
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD: Buyers In Control! Fundamentals Support Higher Prices!Pre-Market analysis for Tuesday Oct 7, 2025 Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RT_Money
7
Gold Bullish Momentum: Layering Longs For Maximum Gain!🏆 XAU/USD | The Gold Robbery Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🎯 Plan Setup (Bullish) Entry (Layering Style): Using the Thief Layer Strategy 🕵️‍♂️ → Multiple Buy Limit layers $3625 $3630 $3635 $3640 (Add more layers based on your own strategy & risk appetite) Stop Loss (Thief SL): @3610 (Adjust based on your own strategy & risk ⚠️) Take Profit (Escape Point): Target resistance zone @3690 🚪💰 ⚡ Note: This is a flexible thief-style plan — adjust SL/TP levels as per your personal money management and execution style. 📊 Why This Plan? (Thief’s Market Analysis) 🔎 Real-Time Market Data (10 Sept 2025) Price: $3,643.71 24h Change: +0.48% Range: $3,620.90 – $3,644.56 🧠 Retail Sentiment (Contrarian Signal) Long: 37% Short: 63% ➡️ Retail crowd is heavily short → Contrarian bullish setup. 🏦 Institutional Sentiment (Commitment of Traders) Net Long: +249,530 contracts Long: 315,796 Short: 66,266 ➡️ Institutions are firmly positioned long ✅ 🌡️ Fear & Greed + Volatility Neutral (shifting from Greed) VIX <14 (52-week low) → Calm market backdrop 📉 Macro & Fundamentals US jobs data: Weak (22K vs. 75K expected) Fed rate cut probability: 99.4% (September meeting) Central bank gold demand + geopolitical tensions supportive Upcoming CPI/PPI = key catalyst 📐 Technical View Price holding above $3,625 support Ascending channel continuation Overbought zone = caution for short pullbacks 🗝️ Key Takeaways (Thief OG Notes) USD weakness + Fed dovish tilt = Gold tailwind Retail shorts = bullish contrarian setup Institutions backing the move higher Short-term overbought → manage exits smartly 🔥 Related Markets to Watch OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver) TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) SP:SPX (S&P 500) TVC:US10Y (US 10Y Treasury Yield) BITSTAMP:BTCUSD (Bitcoin correlation check) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Fundamentals #ThiefStrategy #TradingPlan #GoldBulls #MacroAnalysis #MarketSentiment
FX:XAUUSDLong
by The-Thief
XAUUSD made new ATH. What's next?Gold (XAUUSD) gave us an excellent buy signal last week (September 29, see chart below), easily hitting our 3860 upside Target: This time, the price is extending the Bullish Leg of the 3-week Channel Up, which according to the 1H RSI, should peak soon. The last two did so on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That should take us to 3970, which would be right at the top of the Channel Up (Higher Highs). A 1H RSI Lower Highs rejection would be the sell signal, targeting the 1H MA100 (green trend-line), like both previous Bearish Legs did, at 3900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
XAUUSD (Gold) Technical Analysis & Trading ForecastXAUUSD (Gold) Technical Analysis & Trading Forecast Current Price: $3,886.75 | Date: October 4, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 Executive Summary Gold is trading at historic levels above $3,880, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential monetary policy shifts. The asset is currently testing critical resistance zones while maintaining bullish momentum across multiple timeframes. Both intraday and swing traders should monitor key technical levels for optimal entry and exit strategies. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Monthly & Weekly Perspective (Swing Trading) Gold has experienced significant appreciation in 2025, with the current price action suggesting a continuation of the long-term uptrend that began in late 2022. Monthly charts reveal: Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold appears to be in Wave 5 of a major impulse sequence, targeting the $4,000-$4,200 zone based on Fibonacci extensions from previous wave structures. Ichimoku Cloud (Monthly): Price is trading well above the cloud with bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross, confirming strong trend strength. The cloud ahead remains thin, suggesting limited resistance until $4,050. Gann Analysis: Using the Square of 9 methodology from the 2020 low ($1,450), the current price aligns with the 315-degree angle, projecting next major resistance at $4,015 (360-degree completion) and $4,180 (next 45-degree increment). Key Weekly Support/Resistance Levels: Major Resistance: $3,920, $4,015, $4,180 Primary Support: $3,850, $3,765, $3,680 Critical Support: $3,580 (weekly 50 EMA) Daily Chart Analysis Candlestick Patterns: The recent price action shows a series of bullish engulfing patterns following pullbacks, indicating strong buying pressure at lower levels. Wyckoff Analysis: The current phase suggests we are in a re-accumulation schematic, with recent consolidation between $3,850-$3,920 representing a potential spring or test before continuation to higher targets. Harmonic Patterns: A bullish Gartley pattern completed at $3,765, projecting targets at $3,950 (0.618 retracement) and $4,050 (1.272 extension). RSI (Daily): Currently at 68, approaching overbought territory but not yet extreme. Historical analysis shows gold can sustain RSI above 70 for extended periods during strong trends. Bollinger Bands: Price is riding the upper band, with bandwidth expansion indicating increasing volatility. The middle band at $3,820 serves as dynamic support. Moving Averages: 20 EMA: $3,842 (immediate support) 50 EMA: $3,765 (critical support) 200 EMA: $3,580 (long-term trend confirmation) Golden Cross remains intact with 50 EMA well above 200 EMA Intraday Trading Strategy (Next 5 Trading Days) 4-Hour Chart Setup Current Structure: Gold is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at $3,920 and rising support trend line from $3,765. VWAP Analysis: Anchored VWAP from October 1st stands at $3,872. Price trading above indicates bullish control. Volume profile shows high volume node at $3,860-$3,870, serving as magnetic support zone. Scenario 1 - Bullish Breakout: Entry: Break and close above $3,920 on 4H chart with strong volume Target 1: $3,965 (measured move from triangle) Target 2: $4,015 (Gann resistance) Target 3: $4,050 (Harmonic target) Stop Loss: $3,875 (below VWAP and triangle support) Risk/Reward: 1:3 Scenario 2 - Retracement Play: Entry: Pullback to $3,850-$3,860 zone with bullish reversal candle Target 1: $3,900 Target 2: $3,920 (triangle resistance) Stop Loss: $3,830 (below 20 EMA on 4H) Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 1-Hour Chart Tactical Levels Immediate Resistance Zones: $3,900-$3,905 (prior consolidation area) $3,920-$3,925 (major resistance cluster) $3,950 (psychological level) Immediate Support Zones: $3,872-$3,875 (VWAP & prior resistance turned support) $3,860-$3,865 (high volume node) $3,850 (minor swing low) RSI (1H): Currently 58, neutral zone with room to move higher. Watch for bullish divergence on pullbacks. Bollinger Bands (1H): Price oscillating between middle and upper band. Squeeze conditions suggest potential breakout imminent. 15-Minute & 5-Minute Scalping Strategy Best Trading Sessions: London open (08:00-12:00 UTC+4) and US open (15:30-19:30 UTC+4) for highest volatility and volume. Entry Criteria: Price must be above 15-min 50 EMA for long entries RSI pullback to 40-50 zone followed by bullish momentum surge Volume confirmation (above 20-period VWMA) Scalping Levels (Valid for next 5 days): Buy Zone: $3,875-$3,885 (quick 10-15 point targets) Sell Zone: $3,915-$3,925 (if rejection occurs) Stop Loss: Maximum 20 points ($200/contract) Target: 15-25 points ($150-$250/contract) Pattern Recognition: Watch for bull flags on 15-minute chart during uptrends as continuation patterns, typically resolving within 3-6 candles. Swing Trading Strategy (1-4 Week Horizon) Primary Swing Setup - Long Position Entry Strategy: Preferred Entry: $3,850-$3,870 on any weekly pullback Aggressive Entry: Current levels with wider stop Conservative Entry: Wait for daily close above $3,920 Position Sizing: Allocate only 30-40% of capital initially, scaling in at lower levels if opportunity presents. Target Zones: Target 1: $4,015 (15% position exit) - Gann resistance Target 2: $4,180 (35% position exit) - Elliott Wave projection Target 3: $4,350 (30% position exit) - 1.618 Fibonacci extension Runner: Hold remaining position with trailing stop Stop Loss Management: Initial Stop: $3,765 (below daily 50 EMA) Move to breakeven once Target 1 is reached Trail stop at previous week's low as price advances Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:4 from current levels Alternative Swing Setup - Counter-Trend (Higher Risk) Entry Trigger: Daily close below $3,850 with increased volume Short Entry: $3,840-$3,850 Targets: $3,765 (T1), $3,680 (T2) Stop Loss: $3,920 Note: Only consider if clear reversal pattern forms (bearish engulfing, head and shoulders). Current trend remains bullish. Pattern & Theory Analysis Elliott Wave Count Primary Count: Wave 1: $1,810 to $2,150 (2023) Wave 2: $2,150 to $1,990 (correction) Wave 3: $1,990 to $3,200 (extended wave) Wave 4: $3,200 to $2,960 (complex correction) Wave 5: $2,960 to current (potentially targeting $4,200+) We appear to be in sub-wave 5 of larger Wave 5, suggesting final leg of impulse move approaching. Harmonic Patterns Completed Patterns: Bullish Gartley (completed at $3,765) Bullish Bat pattern (completed in September at $3,680) Potential Forming Patterns: Bullish Butterfly pattern developing with D point potential at $3,750 if retracement occurs Wyckoff Market Phases Current analysis suggests Phase D (markup) of re-accumulation schematic. Characteristics observed: Signs of Strength (SOS): Strong rallies from $3,765 to $3,920 Last Point of Support (LPS): Recent test at $3,850-$3,860 Backup to the edge of creek: Minor pullbacks quickly bought This suggests institutional accumulation continues with further upside likely. Gann Time & Price Projections Time Cycles: Significant Gann time windows approaching: October 7-9, 2025: 90-degree square from previous major low October 15-18, 2025: 180-degree opposition, potential reversal or acceleration point Price Squares: Square of current price ($3,886) suggests natural resistance at $3,969 (square root progression) Gann angles from September low project resistance at $3,985 Ichimoku Analysis Daily Ichimoku: Price above all cloud components (strongly bullish) Tenkan-sen (9): $3,868 Kijun-sen (26): $3,845 Senkou Span A: $3,810 Senkou Span B: $3,765 Cloud Interpretation: Thick bullish cloud below price provides strong support cushion. Future cloud remains green, suggesting trend continuation expected. Trap Scenarios Bull Trap Risk: If price breaks above $3,920 but fails to hold and reverses below $3,880 within 24 hours with high volume, this could signal a bull trap Probability: Low (15-20%) given current fundamental backdrop Bear Trap Watch: Any sharp drop below $3,850 that quickly reverses above $3,870 could trap bearish traders This would likely accelerate the next leg higher Probability: Moderate (35-40%) if pullback occurs Volume & Momentum Analysis Volume Profile: High volume acceptance between $3,800-$3,900 Point of Control (POC): $3,865 Low volume area above $3,950 suggests potential for rapid movement if breached VWAP Signals: Price consistently holding above daily VWAP indicates institutional buying Weekly VWAP at $3,820 serves as strong support for swing positions Volume volatility increasing suggests preparing for significant move RSI Across Timeframes: 5-min: 52 (neutral) 15-min: 58 (bullish lean) 1H: 58 (bullish lean) 4H: 64 (approaching overbought, still healthy) Daily: 68 (strong but not extreme) Weekly: 71 (overbought but sustainable in strong trends) Moving Average Analysis: All major EMAs in bullish alignment (20>50>200) No death cross signals on any timeframe Price trading above 20 EMA on all timeframes except 5-min (normal intraday oscillation) Market Context & External Factors Fundamental Backdrop While this is primarily a technical analysis, traders should be aware that gold's current strength reflects: Geopolitical tensions that may be supporting safe-haven demand Central bank policies and potential monetary easing cycles Currency fluctuations particularly USD weakness Inflation concerns that typically support precious metals Key Events to Monitor (Next Week) Federal Reserve speakers: Any dovish commentary could propel gold higher Geopolitical developments: Escalation or de-escalation affects safe-haven flows Economic data: Employment figures, inflation reports can trigger volatility Dollar Index movements: Inverse correlation with gold typically strong Recommended Approach: Maintain stop losses below technical support levels regardless of fundamental views. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Risk Management Guidelines Position Sizing Intraday Trades: Risk 0.5-1% of account per trade Maximum 2-3 concurrent positions Respect maximum daily loss limit of 2% account value Swing Trades: Risk 1-2% of account per position Scale in across multiple entries if possible Limit total gold exposure to 10-15% of portfolio Stop Loss Discipline Non-Negotiable Rules: Always set stop loss before entering position Never move stop loss further from entry (only toward profit) Exit immediately if stop is touched - no exceptions If stopped out twice from same level, wait for new setup Profit Taking Strategy Systematic Approach: Take partial profits at first target (never wrong to take profit) Move stop to breakeven after Target 1 Trail stop using previous swing lows (intraday) or daily lows (swing) Never let winner turn into loser once breakeven is reached Trading Plan Summary For Intraday Traders (Next 5 Days) Primary Focus: Watch for breakout above $3,920 or pullback to $3,860 support zone Best Times to Trade: London and US session opens for maximum liquidity Key Levels: Resistance: $3,920, $3,950, $4,000 Support: $3,875, $3,860, $3,850 Recommended Strategy: Buy dips near support with tight stops, or breakout trades above resistance with momentum confirmation For Swing Traders (1-4 Weeks) Primary Outlook: Bullish continuation toward $4,000-$4,200 zone Optimal Entry: Any pullback to $3,850-$3,870 represents opportunity Position Management: Scale in across multiple entries, scale out across multiple targets Major Resistance: $4,015 (Gann), $4,180 (Elliott Wave) Critical Support: $3,765 (daily 50 EMA) - break here invalidates bullish setup Conclusion & Final Recommendations Gold remains in a strong uptrend across all major timeframes with technical indicators supporting further appreciation. The current consolidation near all-time highs is typical behavior before the next leg higher. Both intraday and swing traders have clearly defined opportunities with favorable risk/reward ratios. Confidence Level: 75% probability of testing $4,000+ within next 2-4 weeks based on technical confluence Preferred Strategy: Buy dips with defined risk, scale out into strength Critical Warning: Any daily close below $3,765 would damage the bullish structure and require reassessment Next Major Update: October 11, 2025, or immediately following any significant technical breakout/breakdown Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading. The author is not responsible for any trading losses incurred based on this analysis. Next Update: October 11, 2025 Analysis Valid Through: October 18, 2025 Prepared using advanced technical analysis incorporating Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, Gann, Harmonic Patterns, Ichimoku, and modern momentum indicators.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
1
Gold - A shifted move in play and up to 4K🔱 Here’s a shifted move in play 🔱 What exactly is a shifted move? You see the parallel lines next to the white fork? Those are the shifted lines. Now, if you observe how price behaved at the white fork, you’ll notice it was a bit sloppy at the L-MLH, and again at the Centerline after reaching it. But when we add the dotted parallel lines to the chart and measure the distance from the overshoot at the L-MLH, we find a beautiful support at the Shifted Centerline. The usual target would be the U-MLH. So, could the target also be shifted? And what does that tell us? Well, if you’re long on Gold, you might want to take some profit at the Shifted U-MLH and let the rest ride up toward 4K—if there’s enough gas in the goose. For me, a re-entry long would be a pullback to the Centerline—either the original or the shifted one—with a small stop just below some structure. Let me know what you think ho far Gold will go in the comments. 😊 Thanks for boosting, thanks for following 🙏
COMEX:GC1!Long
by HowToChart
4
US budget deadlock causes GOLD to break peak, USD to plummetOn September 30, spot OANDA:XAUUSD prices jumped $24.7 to close at $3,858.23 an ounce, after hitting a new record high of $3,871.73 an ounce. The main reasons came from two factors: concerns about a possible US government shutdown and weak employment data, which raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue to cut interest rates. This put pressure on the US dollar and boosted demand for safe-haven gold. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of jobs increased only slightly in August, while the demand for recruitment decreased sharply. Consumer confidence also fell to a five-month low. The US dollar index (DXY) therefore fell 0.17% to 97.78 - the lowest level in a week. Experts say gold benefits from the weaker dollar and the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates in October, with the probability of up to 97% according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, the stalemate between the two parties in Congress has put the US government at risk of running out of budget by midnight on September 30. If no agreement is reached, the shutdown will disrupt the release of many important economic data, including the non-farm payroll report. If the US government shutdown lasts longer, the negative impact on the economy could force the Fed to loosen policy more strongly, thereby further boosting the gold price rally. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD Main trend: • Gold is still in a narrow uptrend channel (parallel uptrend channel). • Candlesticks are sticking close to the upper edge of the uptrend channel ⇒ buying power is quite strong but also showing signs of “overextending”. • RSI above 70 ⇒ Gold is in the overbought zone, risk of short-term correction. Important levels (Fib + Resistance/Support): • Strong resistance: 3,872 – 3,875 USD/oz (Fib 0.618 + psychological block). • If broken, the next target is 3,938 – 4,022 USD/oz. • Nearby support: 3,825 USD (Fib 0.5) and 3,778 – 3,791 USD (confluence of Fib 0.382 + horizontal support). SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3901 - 3899⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3905 →Take Profit 1 3893 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3887 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3810 - 3812⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3806 →Take Profit 1 3818 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3824
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD surges, US faces risk of government shutdownOn September 29, the spot price of OANDA:XAUUSD increased by nearly 2%, surpassing the threshold of 3,800 USD/ounce and setting a record high. At the end of the session, the gold price reached 3,833.53 USD/ounce, up 74.13 USD compared to the previous session. During the day, this precious metal had reached a peak of 3,834.18 USD/ounce. The sharp rise in gold prices is due to many factors: concerns about the risk of a US government shutdown, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates and escalating geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump met with senior leaders of both parties in Congress on September 29 to find a solution to extend the budget. If no agreement is reached, the federal government will begin to shut down on October 1, right when the 2026 fiscal year begins. The US Department of Labor also confirmed that it will temporarily suspend the release of economic data, including the September jobs report, if this scenario occurs. On the geopolitical front, the Russian Defense Ministry said its troops had taken control of the village of Shandryholove in the Donetsk region, adding to the uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand for gold. Falls in US Treasury yields also helped support gold prices. The 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.141%, while real yields fell 3.5 basis points to 1.761%. The US dollar also weakened, with the DXY index down 0.27% to 97.91, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. According to forecasting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, the possibility of a US government shutdown on October 1 has increased to 70%, compared to about 50% at the end of last week. This has further increased the uncertainty in the market. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by more than 43%, thanks to the demand for reserves from central banks and expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy. Many major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, continue to forecast that gold has room to increase in the coming time. Technical analysis & trading strategies OANDA:XAUUSD Quick Summary Price is in a clear ascending channel on the daily chart, short-term MAs are moving up to support and RSI has some momentum. Fibonacci on the chart shows clear targets: 3.872 (0.618) → 3.938 (0.786) → 4.022 (1.00). Immediate support is in the ~3.791–3.777 range. Overall: the main trend is still up, trade with the trend is preferred. Main setup, Long in trend (Safety / Swing) Idea: Buy when price returns to support zone in rising channel (pullback) or confirms touching the lower edge of the channel and bounces up. Breakout (Strong, Confirmed) Idea: If price closes Daily & has a strong bullish bar above the resistance level 3.872 (Fibo 0.618) or closes above the channel top with high volume → buy chasing the strong trend. Breakdown scenario • If the daily close is below 3,720–3,706 (MA + channel bottom), the bullish structure is considered damaged — exit long or switch to wait for deeper buy-on-dip. • In that case, a reasonable new buy point would be at 3,630–3,680 (deep support zone, fib 0). Risk Management • Risk events: NFP, Fed speeches, US government shutdown risk — strong volatility can wipe out SL. Before big news: reduce order size or limit trade. • RSI: high (near overbought zone) → technical correction is likely to appear; therefore, prioritize entry at pullback rather than catching the top. • Capital management: risk per trade ≤ 1–2% of capital; use order size appropriate to SL distance. Big Attention! • Price enters Entry zone or closes on the day of Breakout confirmation. • Support volume (Breakout with increased volume is a strong signal). • Clear SL, TP divided into 2-3 parts. • Reduce weight before big news (NFP / Fed / risk-off). SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3867 - 3865⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3871 →Take Profit 1 3859 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3753 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3782 - 3784⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3778 →Take Profit 1 3790 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3796
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
XAUUSD Has Left the buildingOn the way up, we first found support at the L-MLH (1). Then the Centerline stepped in as resistance (2), but it eventually couldn’t hold price down. Eating through the Centerline like a mouse through cheese, price found support again at (2) before blasting upward to the U-MLH — and quickly through it. Once again, the U-MLH turned from prior resistance into fresh support. From there, price mirrored (2), moving sideways before blasting off to the moon! 🚀 I’m surprised that WL1 offered no resistance at all. Now that we’ve left WL1 behind, WL2 is the next target. Watching the show patiently.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by HowToChart
GOLD surpasses historical peak - waiting for boost from NFPNews of the past week: OANDA:XAUUSD approaches historical peak, benefits from US tariffs and geopolitical tensions • In the trading session on September 26, the spot gold price surpassed the $3,760/ounce mark and fluctuated around $3,780, just a short distance from the historical peak of $3,791 set earlier this week. This is also the sixth consecutive week of increase for the precious metal, thanks to increased demand for safe havens in the context of new US tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions. • The August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report contained few surprises: Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, in line with forecasts and below July's initial 0.3% reading (which was later revised down). Year-over-year, core PCE held steady at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. Total PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, up from July's 0.2% reading; year-over-year, it edged up to 2.7% from 2.6%. • This inflationary trend has weakened the US dollar, providing additional support for gold prices. However, the Fed’s monetary policy picture remains cautious. After cutting interest rates by 25 basis points last week, many Fed officials have stressed that there is no need to rush to ease further as price pressures persist despite signs of a slowdown in the labor market. • Meanwhile, U.S. economic data released on Thursday, including stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth and lower jobless claims, added to the Fed’s concerns, potentially complicating the path to rate cuts, while gold continues to benefit from haven demand and a fraught political and trade environment. This week: Global markets await US jobs data and signals from the Fed • From September 29 to October 4, global financial markets will be watching the speeches of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials after the September interest rate cut. The biggest highlight is the non-farm payroll (NFP) report released on Friday, a factor that could shape the interest rate path at the Fed's meeting in late October. • At the start of the week, the Eurozone will release a series of data on economic sentiment, consumer confidence and industrial climate, important indicators to check the possibility of escaping the risk of stagflation. On Tuesday, Australia decides on its benchmark interest rate, Japan publishes its policy summary, while China releases its manufacturing PMI. Germany also releases CPI and retail sales on the same day. In the US, Chicago PMI and JOLTs employment data will be released, along with a series of speeches from regional Fed presidents, where views on interest rate cuts are clearly divided. • Wednesday will see the US ADP jobs report and the Eurozone harmonized CPI, which are key data for ECB policy. In addition, the final PMIs from the Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK will be released. The Fed continues its series of speeches, including from the Vice Chairman, which will further focus the market on the employment-inflation balance. • The climax comes on Friday when the US releases its September non-farm payrolls. If the data is weaker than expected, the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points in October will increase, weakening the USD and supporting gold prices. Conversely, strong data could reverse expectations and strengthen the greenback. On the same day, Japan releases its unemployment rate, adding to the currency market. • Overall, this week is a clash of economic data and policy guidance. NFP will be a key measure to break the Fed’s current balance, while European and Japanese data reflect global policy divergence. For investors, gold and the US dollar are likely to be volatile, while crude oil will be influenced by inventory data and Chinese PMIs. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Summary: Gold on the daily chart is running in a clear uptrend channel, buyers are still in control but need to pay attention to the accumulation phase and high RSI before entering orders. Technical perspective • Main trend: Strong increase — price is fluctuating in a clear uptrend channel, tops/cores/bottoms are all making lower and higher lows → bullish structure is intact. • Moving average (MA): Short-term MA is pointing up, price is above MA → confirms the uptrend and MA acts as dynamic support when there is a pullback. • Key support: ~3,720–3,738 USD/oz (near support/lower consolidation band); stronger support around 3,629–3,630 (previous bottom). • Technical resistance/target: immediate resistance ~3,791 USD (recent top). Fibonacci targets if broken: 3,825 (0.5) → 3,872 (0.618) → 3,938 (0.786) → extension to ~4,022 (extension). • RSI & momentum: RSI is in high territory but not yet giving strong reversal signals — momentum remains positive but warns of technical correction risk. Risk management tips & signals to watch • Split orders, don't go all-in; limit risk to 1–2% of account per order. • Monitor RSI: if you see a negative Divergence + a strong bearish candle closing below the lower channel boundary, postpone the Buy. • Macro news (PCE, NFP, Fed speech) can create a strong gap, it is best to use Stop Trading around those events. • If it breaks below 3,630 with high Volume, the Bullish Scenario is null, need to switch to capital preservation. Basic scenario: still prioritize long because of the bullish structure and MA support. However, smart Trades buy with a plan, have disciplined Stop, and don't forget: gold likes macro Drama, so keep a flexible mentality. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3813 - 3811⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3817 →Take Profit 1 3805 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3799 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3753 - 3755⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3749 →Take Profit 1 3761 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3767
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
4
Gold Update 29SEP2025: Top Is Soon, Then PullbackGold Futures are following the projected path closely The first target at $3,900 is now just "miles" away This level could mark the top of wave (3) of ((5)) After that, we might see a pullback to around $3,660 in wave (4) of ((5)), which typically revisits the low of the smaller wave 4 On the 4-hour chart, RSI shows bearish divergence, as it fails to confirm the new high at $3,859 with a lower peak Despite this signal, the market could still reach the $3,900 level Once wave (4) of ((5)) completes, we can reassess and project wave (5) of ((5)) — which might form as a triangle or another complex correction.
COMEX:GC1!
by aibek
XAUUSD targeting 3860 with the 1H MA50 supporting.Gold (XAUUSD) has entered a new Channel Up pattern by turning its 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support. The last time it formed such a pattern after a -2.00% decline was during September 19 - 23. Both fractals are identical in structure both in 1H MA50 and Channel terms. The previous Channel Up eventually peaked a little above the 2.0 Fibonacci, which more than covers our 3860 Target. The pattern gets technically invalidated if the 1H MA50 breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 29 - Oct 03]This week, after opening at $3,683/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD prices jumped to $3,791/oz after NATO forces intercepted three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets when they violated Estonian airspace, causing investors to worry about an escalation of the NATO-Russia conflict. However, after that, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious tone about further interest rate cuts, along with the US GDP data in the second quarter soaring to 3.8%, pushed gold prices down to $3,717/oz. Gold prices then recovered and closed the week at $3,760/oz. Next week, the US will announce the non-farm payroll (NFP) figures for September, which are expected to reach 51,000 jobs, much higher than the 22,000 jobs in August. The recovery in NFP figures compared to the previous period is also natural when the US economy still maintains its growth momentum. However, according to many experts, the September NFP may only be around the expected level, and it is unlikely to exceed the expected level of 51,000 jobs, because US businesses are still facing difficulties due to tariffs and have not expanded their recruitment activities this month. If the NFP is only below 51,000 jobs, this will still be a concern for the FED, forcing the agency to consider further interest rate cuts, supporting the gold price next week to move closer to 3,800 USD/oz, or even exceed this level. 📌In terms of technical analysis, the average price calculated for the D1 chart corresponds to 3,425-3,450 USD/oz. Since breaking through the peak of 3,500 USD/oz, the gold price has increased by approximately 300 USD. Technical indicators signal an overbought state, but the gold price has not shown any signs of a correction. The next resistance zones are based on round resistance levels such as 3,800-4,000 USD/oz. In the near future, if the gold price continues to increase, it may touch around 3,800-3,850 USD/oz. In case of a correction, the price will return to around 3,650 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. • Key support: ~3,720–3,738 USD/oz (near support/lower consolidation band); stronger support around 3,629–3,630 (previous bottom). • Technical resistance/target: immediate resistance ~3,791 USD (recent top). Fibonacci targets if broken: 3,825 (0.5) → 3,872 (0.618) → 3,938 (0.786) → extension to ~4,022 (extension). SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3824 - 3822⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3828 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3659 - 3661⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3655
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD: MASSIVE BREAKOUT IMMINENT! Multi-Timeframe Analysis# 🚀 XAUUSD: MASSIVE BREAKOUT IMMINENT! Multi-Timeframe Analysis 📊 Closing Price: $3,761.24 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰ UTC +4 📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days) 🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: $3,755 - $3,760 📍 Stop Loss: $3,740 🛑 Target 1: $3,785 🎯 Target 2: $3,810 🚀 🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: $3,770 - $3,775 📍 Stop Loss: $3,790 🛑 Target 1: $3,730 🎯 Target 2: $3,700 📉 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN 📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS: RSI (14): 67.2 ⚡ *Approaching Overbought* Bollinger Bands: Price at Upper Band 🔥 VWAP: $3,752 - Acting as Dynamic Support 💪 EMA 20: $3,748 ✅ *Bullish Cross Confirmed* Volume: Above Average 📊 *Institutional Interest* 🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS: Elliott Wave suggests we're in Wave 3 of larger uptrend 🌊 Fibonacci Extension: $3,820 (161.8% target) 🎯 🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS: Bullish Gartley completion at $3,745 ✨ PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) active 🔄 ⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks) 🚀 BULLISH TARGETS: Weekly Resistance: $3,820 🏆 Monthly Target: $3,880 🌙 Gann Square of 9: $3,900 ⭐ 📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION: Weekly Support: $3,680 ⚠️ Critical Level: $3,650 🚨 🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE: Trend: Strong Bullish 💪 Momentum: Accelerating 🔥 Wyckoff Phase: Mark-up Phase 📈 Ichimoku: All systems GREEN 🟢 ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT: Max Risk per Trade: 2% 🛡️ R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2 ⚖️ Position Size: Based on volatility 📏 🌍 MARKET CATALYSTS: - Fed Policy Meeting Next Week 🏛️ - Geopolitical Tensions Supporting Gold 🌐 - Dollar Weakness Continuing 💵 🎯 FINAL VERDICT: Gold shows STRONG BULLISH BIAS with multiple confluences aligning! 🚀 Watch for breakout above $3,775 for explosive move to $3,820+ 💥 Trade Management: Trail stops every 4H close above entry 📈 Key Level to Watch: $3,752 VWAP support 👀 --- *⚠️ Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is for educational purposes only.* For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 🔔 Follow for Daily Updates | 💬 Comment Your Thoughts Below
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by sunya
GOLD falls slightly, market awaits inflation dataIn the Asian trading session on Friday morning (September 26), spot OANDA:XAUUSD hovered around 3,747 USD/ounce, as if "listening" for important news: the upcoming US PCE inflation data. This is considered an information bomb that can cause the gold market, US Dollar and stocks to shake strongly. Earlier, on Thursday, gold lost steam when the number of unemployment claims in the US unexpectedly decreased. Specifically, the US Department of Labor reported that the week ending September 20 had only 218,000 applications, lower than the forecast of 235,000 and down 14,000 compared to the previous week. This news reduced the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would quickly cut interest rates. However, gold prices still closed up 0.36% at $3,749.36/ounce, after rising as much as 0.6%. Also in the week, gold hit a historic peak of $3,790.82/ounce on Tuesday, a figure that made many investors “just sit and watch the chart and sigh with regret, just like AD, reviving when preparing to go to the island”. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is now priced by the market at 85%, down from 90% before the employment data was released. In other words, the Fed is still holding the knife, just hasn't decided whether to cut the "interest rate" yet. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its PCE index for August today. Forecasts show PCE rising 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.6% previously. The core PCE (excluding volatile energy and food prices) is expected to rise 2.9%, the same as in July. Since this is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, any higher-than-expected figure could strengthen the US dollar, sending gold tumbling in the short term. Gold, by its nature, does not generate interest. It only really shines in a low-interest-rate environment, which investors are hoping the Fed will soon bring. Analysis of the technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD prices Main Trend Gold is still in a fairly clear uptrend channel. The price is fluctuating around 3,739 USD/oz, approaching the midline of the uptrend channel. Short-term trend: up but with slight corrections. Important resistance 3,779 USD (Fib 0.382): if broken, gold can quickly test 3,825 - 3,872 USD. 3,938 - 4,022 USD: strong resistance zone, reaching the top of the uptrend channel, easy to take profit. Important support 3,738 USD (current price). 3,720 USD (Fib 0.236 + nearest MA zone). 3,706 USD: strong support, breaking this zone, there is a risk of returning to test 3,628 USD. RSI Still above 60, indicating the market is still biased towards buyers, but showing signs of being a bit “overextended”. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3815 - 3813⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3819 →Take Profit 1 3807 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3801 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3682 - 3684⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3678 →Take Profit 1 3690 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3696
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading