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GDX

THE WEEK AHEAD: SQ EARNINGS; SMH, XOP, GDX, GDXJEARNINGS: SQ (77/59) announces Wednesday after market close and has the volatility metrics I'm looking for out an earnings-related volatility contraction play -- implied in the 70th percentile or greater over the past 52-weeks and 30-day at or greater than 50%. Pictured here is an SQ April 17th 72.5/100 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta paying 3.55 on a buying power effect of 8.37 (42.4%) and delta/theta metrics of .66/7.78. For those high on defined, consider the 65/70/95/100, paying 1.58 (46.2% credit received as a function of buying power effect). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK/30-DAY IMPLIED AND SHOWING THE EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SMH (73/30), May XLE (63/23), July USO (51/37), April XBI (48/30), June XOP (45/37), May FXI (40/23), August GDX (40/29), May GDXJ (38/33), May EWZ (26/27), June I didn't get an opportunity to do a ton last week beyond take off a few setups in profit, so this is probably an opportunity to build up theta pile in stuff that I don't have plays in currently and to add to stuff via delta under hedge that has experienced an up tick in volatility over the past several days. BROAD-MARKET ORDERED BY RANK/30-DAY IMPLIED AND SHOWING THE EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: QQQ (59/23), September SPY (43/17), November IWM (42/19), September EEM (37/19), September In spite of the expansion of volatility over the last several days, broad market isn't paying fabulously in shorter duration, so if you're going to play, look to start out small, add small over time, and take profit somewhat aggressively. FUTURES: /GC (70/15) /CL (51/36) /NG (47/39) /ZS (43/19) /ES (42/17) /SI (33/89) /ZW (24/24) /ZC (23/13) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 17.08 with the March, April, and May /VX futures contracts trading at 17.05, 17.33, and 17.09 respectively. It's tough to divine what /VX futures traders' thought processes are here, but it looks like they may be focused on the exogenous event of the year -- the expiry around the general elections, where there is a huge term structure "hump" from September (currently trading at 17.75) to October (20.55), with the remainder of the preceding structure being fairly flat in the interim. There is a mere .70 differential between the March contract price and the September one which I regard as unusually flat, which doesn't make for good term structure trades. Naturally, at some point, the term structure may adjust to a more "standard look," but in the mean time, look to add short to VIX derivatives (VXX, UVXY) on pops to VIX > 20% via short call vertical or long put vertical with a break even at or above where the underlying is currently trading and shooting for one-third the width in credit (if a credit spread; don't pay more than 2/3rds the width if a debit spread).
NYSE:XYZ
by NaughtyPines
2
Gold miners - laggards in a rallyGold is rallying very hard, and the GDX Gold miners ETF is lagging behind. It is only a matter of time before it catches up, and is already beginning that catch up journey. This morning, it is up 1.5% and launching off, after a higher low bounce off a support region (grey box). Technicals are supportive, as is correlation to Gold prices. The MACD crossed up after consolidation. By next week, it should be breaking out over the trendline, and upside is >15% to target.
AMEX:GDXLong
by Auguraltrader
#gold consolidates in $1630s miners lag min 10% $GDX $NUGT $DUSTIt is uncharacteristic for the miners to lag in this way, usually, it goes the other way around. The explanation is simply that the S&P is near all-time highs and has signaled repeatedly to short the gold mining companies and ETFs. GDX resistance in the $31 region is not likely to hold this time. Gold miners are seeing all-time record profits due to gold reaching new all-time highs in every currency but the US dollar ( XAUUSD ) and Swiss Franc ( XAUCHF .) Most mining costs are incurred in other currencies where gold has been hitting all-time highs repeatedly for many months. Shorting of the miners are will be bad for business as these levels are pierced.
AMEX:GDXLong
by blloyd
GDX – Turned Bullish on Daily - $32 Price TargetChart Details Price on Daily keeping yellow support. Best entry would be close to yellow support (on pullback). Bullish price action – higher highs and higher lows daily. Gaps to fill up to $37. Conservative price target of $32 to fill first gap. RSI channel is our guide to enter or exit until channel guides are violated. Opinion I had three hedges for market downturn in play, instead of taking specific bearish plays on SPY for example. GDX, SCO, and SPXS have all been good hedges when purchased at correct time (market ATH's with weekly RSI over 80-85) With coronavirus, oil conflicts, Iran, market overpriced, negative interest....yada yada...there are a number of bubbles or events ready to pop. About Me www.moneypatterns.com Options Strategies, Video Technical Analysis, Instant Alerts, Specific Options Order Entry Details, Daily Updates, Equities & Crypto, Weekly Breakdowns, Charting Service, & More in Members Area! Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts and on www.moneypatterns.com
AMEX:GDXLong
by MoneyPatterns
THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX EARNINGS; XME, GDXJ/GDX, XBI; VIXEARNINGS: NFLX (46/41) (Tuesday After Market Close). The metrics aren't ideal here, with the rank below 70%, the 30-day below 50% and the at-the-money short straddle paying less than 10% of the value of the underlying in the February cycle, but this is the best of the bunch announcing next week in terms of both liquidity and implied volatility. Pictured here is a February cycle 305/385 delta neutral short strangle paying 7.00 with delta/theta metrics of .84/27.72. Alternatively, go defined risk, shooting to collect one-third the width of the wings with a 305/310/380/385 iron condor paying 1.88 with delta/theta of .70/3.48. I will consider going out farther In time to March to get paid, but the trade-off is that any volatility crush gets muted if you do that. That being said, you do get wider break evens for a similarly delta'd short strangle, so get more room to be wrong. For instance, the similarly delta'd March setup is the 295/395 paying 8.13 at the mid price with delta/theta metrics of -.91/18.54, with break evens of 286.87/403.13 versus the shorter duration's 298/392. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: ... ordered by rank and showing the month in which the at-the-money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying. I've culled out funds that aren't paying that in 180 days' duration or less, since no one likes to wait that long for their candy. XME (30/21), June GDXJ (17/28), May XBI (12/24), June GDX (11/25), April USO (11/29), April XLE (6/16), July SMH (4/21), May EWZ (3/24), June XOP (2/28), April* I've already got GDX, EWZ, XBI, and XOP on, so may look at getting into some XME, even though there is some overlap with miner holdings, and/or redipping my stick into some SMH, since that pays in a shorter duration. BROAD MARKET: Nothing is paying in <180 day duration .... . FUTURES (EXCLUDING TREASURIES AND CURRENCIES): /NG (39/42) /GC (29/11) /ZC (29/24) /SI (28/18) /CL (23/28) /ES (10/12) /ZW (8/23) Natty is juiced with last week's sell-off, with some understandable trade-related friskiness in the ag complex. Oil's still paying, but only in durations of April or longer. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week levitating a dime above the 12 handle with only the April, May, and June /VX contracts paying greater than 16 (16.05, 16.33, and 16.75, respectively). My general preference for term structure trades is to short only in expiries where the correspondent /VX future is trading above 16 and ordinarily in <90 day duration (e.g., the VIX April 15th 16/18, 87 days 'til expiry, .55 at the mid price with a break even of 16.55 versus the the /VX April contract of 16.05), so would probably only pull the trigger on an April setup. For UVXY and VXX, my short volatility go-to's, I'm patiently waiting for a pop to add and/or to roll what I've got into strength, of which we've had very little. VXX was down 5.67% for the week; UVXY, 8.37%. * -- There isn't an April expiry as of the writing of this post, but January fell off last week, so one will likely be opened and populate this week.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
AUD dying a slow death against real moneyXAUAUD - This has to be the most telling of all sorties of all. While everyone continues to pile into trendy tech stocks operating in crowded consumer markets, harbouring astronomical debts, that make no profit, with PE ratios higher then Cheech and Chong. At the same time the unloved boring gold sector with low PE ratio businesses, no debt, free cash flow and cash reserves finally showing signs of life. Gold tells the story of a slowly dying monetary system poised to give the retail investors one last f**k you. Where will you be on the next bank holiday? How did you go broke?..Slowly. Then all at once.
OANDA:XAUAUDLong
by b_goleman
2