GDX break out Have been tracking Gold and the Gold miners ETF GDX... It has been a while and it appears that Gold and GDX are at least in sync again.
GDX appears to have closed the week above the long term range and just broke out, if not about to...
MACD and VolDiv have not yet crossed over but indications show. The TD Setup is still showing primary bullish and a new Setup is forming, with a target to close above 36.26 within the next two months.
GDX
Is the Silver to Gold Ratio due to tripleWallStSilver
Silver Bugs have had to bear many decades of no euphoric price action
Like the saying goes every dog has it's day
And in speculation a Bull market in one sector often means another sector get's neglected
Things don't move in lock step
It's just the nature of speculating/investing which we can't control but also offers us opportunity
I believe Silver should be a relative out-performer of most things (not all things)
And cheap prices
or cheap ratio's tilt the odds in your favour.
Jaguar Mining Gold = micro-cap scam: Be Cautious Zcash is Better
Jaguar Mining Announces Ten To One Reverse Split
Jaguar Mining this morning announced that the company will be going ahead with a previously proposed share consolidation on the basis of one common share for every ten shares currently held by shareholders. Further, the company intends to conduct a $0.08 dividend on a post-consolidated basis five days after the completion of the consolidation.
The consolidation, as per the company, was approved by an annual general and special meeting of shareholders held on June 5, 2017 – a mere three years ago. The company was provided with conditional approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange on July 17, 2020. The effective date for the ten to one reverse split is said to be August 27, 2020.
thedeepdive.ca
Are Gold & Silver done?Don't think #GOLD is done by any means.
HOWEVER.......
Sold some positions around the date of bearish engulfing. As of today the precious metal is still @ that price level. We missed a lil more upside but it wasn't much oi the whole scheme of things.
#SILVER shows same exact signs except the Bearish Engulfing.
AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV
Junior Miners will fall 10-20% before catapulting in Mid MayMiners didn't accelerate to the upside like metals because they do better in lower interest rate environments, whereas metals do better for volatility events. You could buy ITM puts here on JNUG, NUGT, GDX or GDXJ and see a good return, or just wait for this to bottom in a couple of weeks and ride the lightning. THIS opportunity is one of the 2 that I see this year where you can buy OTM calls and this will be like Gamestop imo.
THIS ISN'T FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Endeavor Silver is about to blast off!This has broken out of two downward trends and Powell is about to be dovish with the dollar and let inflation rip again for Biden to get reelected.
I see a VERY ATTRACTIVE options play right now - Endeavor's May Call contract at $2.50 is .20 right now and the O/I is off the charts. $5 is .05 or $5 a call. If silver blasts off like I think then these guys could rocket past that was they hit $12 in 2011. August is the next options expiration month, and has some high volume, but not as high as May.
I think buying calls here would be a good choice. If you're concerned then brake up your months from May and August. I expect miners and metals to get pummeled this summer when BOJ announces rate CUTS when they implode. I'd diversify into the dollar or USDJPY or USDCNY at that point cause China will devalue their currency after the BOJ cuts rates to negative (to stay competitive).
THIS ISN'T FINANCIAL ADVICE!! I am making a purchase into these securities as well, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Gold Pulls in More Fools, Rally to $1950 then FadeI rally between now and April-May looks like a good risk-reward, however those gains are likely to get faded very fast as capital flows back into discounted equities, and other growth assets
Of all the minerals mined from the Earth, none is more useful than gold (this is speculation). Its usefulness is derived from a diversity of special properties.
Gold conducts electricity, does not tarnish, is very easy to work, can be drawn into wire, can be hammered into thin sheets, alloys with many other metals, can be melted and cast into highly detailed shapes, has a wonderful color and a brilliant luster.
Gold is a memorable metal that occupies a special place in the boomer mind.
TD9 count, parabolic, MSM euphoria/ fear - Gold to Cool Offthe fundamentals on gold aren't good:
1. its a rock, King Midas can make the supply infinite
2. mining it is an environmental mess and energy waste
3. value is primarily speculative
4. ton of overhead bagholders from 1,500-2,000 days
5. crypto currency stealing new retail
6. being hoarded by fragile states/ regimes
7. regulatory risk during crisis times
8. massive derivatives & futures market pressure
9. new chemistry could obsolete its small set of utility applications
10. Peter Schiff, Rickards, Clif High, etc baby boomer ponzi crew
11. "Everyone Knows" its a good investment now right? Too Good to Be True pitfall
12. Its just a shiny metal from underground
13. Millennials are already post-gold, post-diamonds
Gold forms Bearish Engulfing, Silver at resistance🚨 🚨 🚨
#Gold is forming a Bearish Engulfing on the daily charts.
Volume is almost there for a confirmation of the pattern.
Money Flow is low.
Overbought.
Weekly we see Gold forming a doji = battle bulls & bears.
#Silver is at a major resistance.
This should be an interesting week...
AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ AMEX:SLV
Opening (IRA): GDX February 16th 29 Monied Covered Call... for a 28.24 debit.
Comments: GDX (IVR/IV 40.8/ 32.9) is at the top of my IV screener for ETF's (along with GDXJ, which has higher IV, but is less liquid).
Buying stock and selling the -71 delta call against, resulting in a max profit potential of .76 ($76)/contract; 2.69% ROC at max; 1.35% at 50% max. That .76 isn't massively compelling, but the ROC is "decent" for what I'm trying to do in the IRA on a month-month basis.
Opening (IRA): GDX August 16th 22 Monied Covered Call... for a 21.01 debit.
Comments: There isn't much that is weak in this market ... . Adding a rung to my GDX position out in August at a strike lower than what I currently have on. (See Posts Below).
.99 max on BPE of 21.01; 4.7% ROC at max; 2.4% at 50% max.
Opened (IRA): GDX March 15th 27 Monied Covered Call... for a 26.21 debit.
Comments: 42.2 IV/32.8% 30-day IV. Before I went to take a nap, added a "rung" on weakness here to my position, buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against. I already have a February monied on (See Post Below), so went out to March for this setup.
The call IV at the 27 strike: 37.32%. The put side at the same strike: 29.49% with their respective maxes being .79 for the 27 monied; .49 for the 27 short put.
As previously noted, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment where you don't get much BP relief by hanging out in the options. This cost 26.21 to put on in the IRA; the 27 short put would cost 26.51. Compare on margin: 26.21 buying power effect for this setup, 3.18 BPE for the 27 short put. Put another way: you generally don't do this setup on margin because it isn't BP efficient.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis/Break Even: 26.21
Max Profit (The Short Call Strike Price - Cost Basis): .79 ($79)
ROC %-age At Max: 3.01%/15.70% Annualized
ROC %-age at 50% Max: 1.51%/7.85% Annualized
Gold to $3000Gold has tested the $2000 area twice and failed. If it makes new all time highs, above 2050-2070, it could easily run to 3k. One of the few spots of strength in the market along with bitcoin since the Silvergate&SVB triggered banking crisis. Out of position on a weekly close under 1750.
Opening (IRA): GDX June 21st 24 Monied Covered Call... for a 22.83 debit.
Comments: Selling the -75 call against a one lot here out in June where I have covered calls at the 29, 27, and now 24 strikes. 1.17 max on BPE of 22.83; 5.12% ROC at max; 2.56% at 50% max.
Going monied CC here in lieu of an equivalently delta'd short put to take advantage of call side IV skew (39.6% on the call side; 29.18% on the put side at the 24 strike).
This is probably about as much BP I want to devote to a miners position, which I view as an indirect rate cut play with the notion being that the dollar weakens somewhat, gold strengthens, and miners indirectly follow with bets being that there's a rate cut in May. It may naturally end up being later; the market hasn't exactly been "spot on" with either the timing of depth of cuts of late ... .
Alternatively, GDXJ/GDX are at the top of my screener for 30-day IV, so I'm just going where the juice is at.
Consolidation Continues for Precious Metal Mining StocksGold miners have shown relative weakness to the metals since topping in 2020, and that looks likely to continue in the near term. However, when this consolidation completes, the mining stocks should once again shine and starts catching up, potentially in the next couple of months.
For this reason, the time has come to keep this group on your watch list as a bottom below the October 2023 level of 25.65 on GDX could prove to be a durable bottom that will serve as a base to move GDX back over the ~ 36 high, and could even see prices breaking over the 45.76 high from 2020. These would likely represent ~ 46% and 86% upside moves respectively, so well worth a long trade.
A bit more patience is needed until this group will be ready, but could coincide with a pullback in the market in the coming months.
The downside levels of interest are ~ 24.1-24.6, and 22.8 to look for evidence of a bottom formation.
Gold/XAUUSD ~ Blow-off Top Keeps On...Blowing? (2H)TVC:GOLD chart mapping/analysis.
Gold's massive (algo-triggered) blow-off top killed the bullish momentum - pending further selling pressure if DXY/bond yields decide to rally into end of the year..
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Selling pressure towards 50% Fib initial support zone.
Bearish EOY capitulation target = Golden Pocket support zone.
Expect any bullish reversal to be met with sellers, pending underlying relative strength in DXY/bond yields.
38.2% Fib / 200SMA confluence zone as potential target for short positioning, TBC.
$GOLD Bulls Need What?Gold achieved a historic milestone with a record monthly close in November 2023. For gold bulls, the next crucial step is the formation of a bullish consolidation, potentially leading to a bull flag pattern on the weekly chart. However, the path ahead is not without challenges, as indicated by the significant resistance levels depicted by the blue lines on the chart. These lines represent critical points that gold prices need to overcome to maintain their upward trajectory.
GDX: Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom In PlayGold is up an even 10% year to date. The precious metal has frustrated bulls at times in 2023 but falling real interest rates over the past several weeks have undoubtedly been a boon. While it’s encouraging to see spot gold climb above the $2000 per ounce mark, I see potential upside in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).
Notice in the chart that the portfolio of gold mining companies, Newmont Mining (NEM) being the biggest weight, is working on a bullish inverse head and shoulders bottom formation. I see a key neckline around the $30 mark while the low under $26 from early October represents the head. If we project that $4.50 height onto the neckline, then an upside measured move price objective to near $34.50 would be in play.
Something to watch heading into year-end is how the US Dollar Index performs. Surely a move toward 4% on the 10-year Treasury Note rate would be a macro tailwind for gold and the gold miners, but a drop under 100 might also help commodities writ large. What could cause such a combination of lower rates and a weaker greenback? Softer economic data, including a weak payrolls report due out on Friday, December 8, might be such a catalyst. As it stands, four rate cuts are priced into next year which offers a solid backdrop for precious metals heading into 2024.
$GDX Bull Flag Poised to Break OutThe AMEX:GDX , a notable gold miners ETF, is currently displaying a Bull Flag formation, indicating a potential breakout on the horizon. My perspective remains that we are on the cusp of a significant breakout, one that could not only impact the gold market substantially but also trigger an even larger movement in mining stocks. Admittedly, I've held this view for some time, akin to the old saying that "a watched pot never boils," suggesting that sometimes anticipation can make the wait feel longer. By mentioning this, I might be tempting fate with the market, yet I believe that this breakout could occur unexpectedly, perhaps when it's least anticipated by most investors.
The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out of top consolidation finallyIF you had been following the series of The Gold Odyssey, you would know how well the probabilities are in the analyses.
To the point, Gold is ready to break its almost three year consolidation (huge) range.
1. You can see the powerful reversal off the mid-range support;
2. The candles show and project good momentum to follow through;
3. A trend line breakout already just happened with the week not closed yet; and
4. MACD and VolDiv are only starting to align for a good bullish breakout.
Incoming!!!!






















