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USDCNH Update - Major Breakout UnderwayIf you bought this pair when I first featured it here, you have made money. If you were leveraged 50:1 - which - often is the case in forex, you have likely returned more (% returned) in this trade than what you can expect in three years of investing in a vanilla benchmark-tracking 401K. I remain long USDCNH and will continue to cover it for the foreseeable future. Something to consider: such a rapid deterioration of the Yuan is reason to speculate the Chinese economy is becoming increasingly decoupled from anything that resembles the last 10-12 years of price action. For example, if the Yuan were to surpass $7.20, I would start to suspect two possible (again I can't "predict" anything) situations: 1. The Chinese economy in severe distress (hopefully not). 2. Intentional disregard for participation in the global economy, as it exists currently (hopefully not). Again, we are not there YET; all we can do is read the chart and analyze information / data as it becomes available. Pray for peace. God Bless
Long
by ChiefMacro
1929 ReduxI have been waiting for the moment where my confidence was high enough to say the top was in for most of 2021. The relentless grind upwards has kept providing moments that "could be the one", but all have been quickly bounced before any real technical damage could be done. Hence, we went almost a year from the last 5% SPX correction until now. This will be long-winded, because, well, this is as much a high timeframe macro fundamentals call as it is a technical one. I called for the intergenerational top in January 2020 on SPX and NDX. The short trades I drew on those charts stayed below their stops heading into the pandemic crash, and that crash brought them to my 2nd TP target (of 3). I had not expected this crash to happen in a one-month straight-line crash, expecting instead a normal bear market for US equities lasting 1-2 years, but the pandemic was a genuine black swan catalyst. My logic on that call was fairly straightforward - my indicators showed us looking like the 2000 top, a repo crisis in 2019 had the Fed pouring money into a what seemed like a leaking bucket, and valuations relative to GDP had matched 2000 levels almost precisely. TSLA and AAPL had gone parabolic out of nothing in a way that was deeply disconnected from fundamentals since that October 2019 intervention. It seems quaint now, but the "stonks only go up" meme had become prominent and fear-euphoria metrics were showing the most euphoric market since 2000. ...and then I've been wrong ever since and missed the longest, fastest bull rally in the history of US equities. Mea culpa. It turns out that it was actually possible for monetary and fiscal stimulus to plug the dam. The amounts involved were historically unprecedented, and they successfully stabilized the system. I'd argue that this is for the better of humanity too, given that an economic crash inside of the pandemic likely means immensely more death and suffering than if we timeshift the brunt of economic carnage until we're past COVID-19; though there's plenty of reason to be aghast at how little shared sacrifice was asked of and is still not being asked of elites relative to everyone else. With hindsight, it was a substantial disadvantage that my background before ever touching trading was in graduate-level bioscience, meaning I actually understood how the pandemic was playing out, that it would likely last much longer than anyone but pretty much the scientists themselves was saying, and that governments were failing to get it under control by reopening too early. Thus, I was broadly correct about what happened in the real world while the market continued to trade a parallel universe consensus that everything was sunshine and rainbows. I am too young to have my own memories of trading in 1998-2000 was like, and that's the only thing that appears comparable to the post-pandemic market structure. Fundamentals, at least at the macro level, completely stopped mattering, or really, they became inversely correlated as anyone who traded their disbelief on that basis got squeezed. Bears, and with them, all tethering to reality itself, have gotten drowned in liquidity. Leverage via the options market has gone frank parabolic. US equities inflows in the past year have totaled more than the net inflow of everything from the 2009 bottom to before that window combined. Meme stocks have gotten bid up purely because they can be, and then the inflows from index ETFs have sustained those bubbles. NKLA, a company where the CEO is outright indicted for fraud at this point, retains a $5B market cap because it's in the Russel 2000. The percentage increase in NDX bottom to top from 2009 to now is now a larger parabola in percentage terms than the one which led to the 2000 crash. Valuations have run well past 2000 levels and are now at 1929 levels. We took a 2000-level tech bubble... and ran it up into a 1929-level total market bubble. Meanwhile, the engine of growth for the past 30 years or so, essentially since the Nikkei topped out in 1989, has been the modernization of China. A country of 1.2B people has gone from being a mostly poverty-stricken agricultural society to the standard of living of Mexico - part of the global middle class but not a "high-income", "developed" country, a bimodal country with cities of developed-world wealth alongside rural areas that are very very poor, and a country whose further progress is heavily restrained by corrupt governance. ...and the China bubble is now popping right now in front of our eyes. That has become the probable catalyst for the end of this "supercycle" - its real estate sector is 30% of its GDP, amounts to a giant piggybank of unfinished, unlivable, ghost city buildings so poorly-constructed that they frequently just topple over. Its high-yield bond market is comprised primarily of debt from that sector. If this was going to stop at Evergrande, the system would absorb it just fine, but it's already not stopping there. China has been in a slow-motion financial crisis for several years now if you've been paying attention to the thinly-covered news about it, and the dam has finally broken. Much of this junk real estate debt is USD-denominated and ultimately, the CCP can't keep the party going any longer if it wants to, so it's now setting precedents whereby foreign bondholders get stiffed while domestic bondholders get the breadcrumbs that can be salvaged. Defaults on this massive pool of USD-denominated debt is where the system is now finally breaking, since we've managed to defer the pain from the pandemic. Being the global reserve currency means that your money supply is, well, global - however safe US domestic debt may be, there's more USD-denominated bond debt being issued abroad than there is domestically and it is of far more dubious quality. Google Trends for the keyword "inflation" blew up earlier this year. As per usual, the crowd is wrong, or at best, late to the party. Inflation has been running modestly hot in the US and EU by the standards of post-2008, and people appear to have completely forgotten what "normal" was before then. Over the past 2 years, it hasn't done much more cumulatively than make up for the weakness in first few months of the pandemic. If you've read this far and this paragraph seems wrong to you, then what I'll say to that is that the way most complaints about "inflation" miss the boat is by misunderstanding what the word is actually measuring and either cherrypicking things that have clearly gone up in what is a broad index with many things that change little and some that are quietly going down, or they're looking at "asset price inflation" and missing the point that this is specifically not something that conventional "inflation" measures at all. That low inflation has slowly juiced all asset prices which feels like "inflation" of asset prices is a difference between a technical and colloquial definition. Thus, I'm calling for a deflationary bust at a time when this appears to be contrarian to, well, most everyone. I've listed several targets on SPX and NDX taken from weekly and monthly charts using my ACAT indicator. I think the top is in, given the action of the past few weeks, but I've included a bit of wiggle-room for double-top if consolidation drags out a couple more months. I'd like to think I've patiently waited long enough and found a serious change in character in this market, but if I haven't, risk of further parabolic blowoff means macro bears would need to cut the loss quickly to live to try again another day. The effect of passive flows on this market has been to accelerate the moves, so I've drawn this as a shorter duration bear market than might otherwise be the historical expectation, but if I'm correct, and this is 1929 / 1989 Nikkei, then basically people will get eaten buying the dip several times and this will end only when sentiment that the market is a guaranteed thing so long as you buy-and-hold is no longer church doctrine. Crashes on this scale have typically taken decades to retake the highs. You should expect regulation to curb excesses and that will cap the insanity - because markets like this get this insane due to clear examples of fraud and abuse. So we'll respond to things like whatever the hell games TSLA has been playing with its accounting after it blows up Enron-style, and it will be the correct thing to do because the fundamental problem with "stonks only go up" is that a lot of why the economy feels perpetually poor to so many ordinary people is that we're allocating capital to Ponzi schemes instead of actual not-fraud, real world mathematically-sound and often not-sexy businesses that can sustainably employ people with steadily rising wages over decades.
SP:SPXShort
by acatwithcharts
2
EURNZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro...EUR is the most inflationary currency, whereas NZD is the most deflationary. Based on Micro Bias, Global Macro Bias, and other factors... My strognerst number was never assigned to this pair.... Consequently, I will maintain my short position in the EURNZD, and based on current information, we might continue in this manner for another week... Someone among you who has been following the previous three transactions on the EURNZD, Continue reading and don't shut your browser! :)
Short
by Idealadvantage
NZD-USD Fundemental and Macro AnalysisThis weekend's market is expected to be relatively quiet. They will not produce large effects or move, and they will most likely not affect all pairings. We should proceed with caution, but the New Zealand dollar and the United States dollar have a very high possibility of gaining ground because of recent performance and statistics that I have obtained. After that, I'm going to stick with this currency pair for the weekend. Everyone should use caution, even if they have high expectations.
Long
by Idealadvantage
Global Markets Falling Off A CliffChina, Europe, Asia, Africa could see a -10% to -22% collapse over the next 60+ days if consumers shift assets away from risks associated with the current COVID & debt/credit issues plaguing foreign markets. China, in particular, could be on the cusp of a "Great Recession". This could drive other foreign markets deeper into trouble in early 2022. My opinion is the US markets may see some extended downside price volatility, but may quickly recover and trend higher if these global crisis events are somewhat isolated and contained. Certainly, traders need to be prepared for extreme volatility over the next 90+ days. I believe China is in far worse shape than many people currently believe. These debt/credit issues are entrenched in finance/banking in China/Asia. I believe the more mature Asian economies could be headed for complete debt collapse over the next 2+ years. Pay attention. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
NDX by Chief MacroWith recent news of South Korea and Hungary hiking rates (even before this news), I am starting to more seriously consider the possibility that the *rest of the world* could lead asset tapering initiatives, ahead of the US. This would allow for Emerging Markets to stabilize, amid the $Dollar-driven commodity boom, thereby setting the stage for the next several years of global macro / monetary & fiscal policy. US Indices: Lot's of money still coming in via accommodative monetary policy and continued deficit spending, not to mention the potential (likely) for *more attractive* debt issuance, following the post-covid-stabilization of the "rest of the world". Just an idea and a theory - but even looking at the Nasdaq, we have seem to have stabilized above a 12-year range; which is typically a bullish indicator.... oh one more nugget: the biggest companies in the world are American companies. So in a way, the US has the ability to control dollars through corporate channels not available to other countries.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by ChiefMacro
Is your money worth reading "maybe´s"Hello Trenders, Been thinking a lot to or to not publish this signal. Many of you expect a deep on global level, therefore I here show you some mathematic forecast. This may not be the end of the world, yet it is far worse than the most downbeat forecasts. The evidence to support this outlook is in plain sight. Some sixth-grade math is a good place to begin the analysis. Make 2019 economic output 100 (the actual figure is $22 trillion; “100” is 100 percent of that number; a convenient way to measure ups and downs). Assume output drops 20 percent over the second and third quarters of 2020 (many estimates project larger drops; 20 percent is a plausible if conservative estimate). A 20 percent drop for six months equals a 10 percent drop for the full year, assuming the first and fourth quarters are flat on net. A 10 percent drop from 100 = 90 (or $2.2 trillion of lost output). Since 1948, U.S. annual real growth in GDP has never exceeded 10 percent. Since 1984, real growth has never exceeded 5 percent. The highest-growth years since the end of World War II were 8.7 percent in 1950, 8 percent in 1951, and 7.2 percent in 1984. An assumption that real growth will occur in 2021 at a 6 percent annual rate is a generous if unrealistic assumption. Such growth would qualify as a Vshaped recovery. If our new base is 90 (compared with 100 in 2019) and we increase output by 6 percent in 2021, this brings total output to 95.4. If we enter 2022 with the new base of 95.4 and increase that base by 4 percent (so, 95.4 × 1.04), we come to 99.2 in total output by the end of 2022. Here’s the problem. Using 100 as a baseline for 2019 output, and assuming 6 percent real growth in 2021 and 4 percent in 2022 (rates of growth that have not happened on an annual basis since 1984), the economy does not get back to 2019 output levels. The hard truth is that 99.2 < 100. Source : The new great depression (2021). What about if we really have a second wave harder then the first with mutatied covid? I want to add, is not my intention to spread panic or "maybe´s" but the study got my attention. Even the legends will have trouble surviving if this happen. So how can a trader survive in this case condition by trading as only source of income??? Perhaps agricultural commodities will always perform....
SP:SPXEducation
by DeFontain
1
Aussie Is Like a Kangaroo in a CageThe Australian dollar has squeezed into an increasingly tight range all year. Futures traders may want to be ready in case a breakout occurs. First, Bollinger Bandwidth is near long-term lows on both the daily and weekly charts. This isn’t necessarily bullish, however it’s interesting when you consider other positive forces at work. One of those items is the dovish Federal Reserve and weak U.S. dollar. Another is the ongoing rallies in materials like copper and iron ore. The Australian dollar typically follows those commodities. Diplomatic tensions with China are currently holding back the Aussie. However, that creates the potential for a breakout if things improve. Next, consider the stair-stepping price action since late March. AUDUSD held 0.76, calmly building support for three weeks. It then proceeded to the 0.77 area, where the currency spent another three weeks establishing itself. Today it’s breaking the top of that range and is headed for its highest daily close since February 25. It could also have its second-highest weekly close since February 2018: Finally, AUDUSD has found support at both its 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Overall, the price charts in many global assets have stabilized recently after pullbacks in early 2021. If this trend continues, it could only be a matter of time before the Aussie starts moving again. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Long
by TradeStation
1
Coffee, Global Agriculture Inflation BoomNotice the major multi-year higher low formed in 2019, followed by the rounding basing pattern and subsequent breakout outside of the multi-year triangle. The higher low in 2019, before the Covid deflation crash, tells me the agriculture complex was already bottoming ahead of Covid and now has a full head of steam. Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Fertilizer have all been ripping to the upside like mad. Way to play coffee is through the ETF NIB Not investment advice. DYODD
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
FUNDAMENTAL PREDISPOSITION SCENARIOOANDA:GBPUSD In these times the economies from an endogenous standpoint are facing uncertain futures. The UK economy has been highly impacted by the pandemic as have others, yet the UK have successfully rolled out and produced numerous vaccinations and are distributing it to other economies all over. This is boosting the UK output and manufacturing & international trade after seeing these sectors fall to unprecedented levels. UK manufacturing is back up to pre-pandemic levels yet is giving us extreme inflation outlook for the future while the services sector is still deteriorating as restriction's from the government continue to halt this sector from functioning as normal, Meaning financial help is inevitable to keep as many struggling businesses as possible alive. Consumer sentiment outlook has risen as confidence re-grows after the the vaccination programme is well underway. The construction / housing sector has also risen to previous high level readings, As construction & housing permits are being approved to keep the money flow and sector alive through the whole pandemic. Printing of M2 money supply is still maintained at a level of nearly 2.7 million a week 18% annualised rate this slightly lower than in march 2020 when we seen an annualised rate of 65%. Interest Rates maintain a low 0f 0.1% as deflationary measures, But we can now start to see inflation starting in the CPI & PPI prices. Unemployment stably high over the 5.0 mark. Government 10Y rates slowly starting to rise as inflation slowly is taking place and offering steadily higher rates of return as they try to reduce the debt bill on the deficit spending due to high spending on domestic goods to boost economic output & injections to help sectors. Looking at this information on a relative basis to the U.S economy, numbers are slightly similar yet U.S numbers are larger due to a obviously larger economy but inflationary measures have kicked in quicker in the U.S and inflationary scores are higher than those in the UK. Relative GDP is showing that the U.S is still growing at a faster rate than the UK. With the uncertainty of the pandemic & current market prices still overlooking all ideas, I will be waiting to make a move on this pair when the time is right. My fundamental predisposition on the G/U pair is SHORT. COT reports backing this in favour as the data for this has flipped into negative for the start of this year, But the current market is in a rally & on the long term technical side, has closed and consistently traded well above a long term level of support at around the 1.34 level. If the market continues to rally on the hopes of a vaccine driven outlook, I will look to short this pair at around the 1.42 level giving that the economic data has no dramatic change or may even look to take a position back below the 1.33 level if price already takes a turn and trades comfortably.
Short
by MacroSpace
Eco/monetary news n°27: The FUD is more than just FUD> After 3 months of election fraud suspicions/allegations Myanmar military arrested the state leader & president *********************** 2021 off to a good start. Unsurprisingly it has begun. After winning the general elections with 80% of the votes (not counting the fixed 25% the military get) the heads of the ruling party, state leader and president were removed by the military which claims the evidence of fraud got too big to ignore. A general is now state leader, and the VP is now president, for 1 year until new elections happen. Of course, all the usual 🤡 have blindly jumped to their press rooms and their keyboards to "condemn the coup" and we have not heard the side of the burmese military. It's bad when the unelected military have political power, but it's great when social networks and the media have UNLIMITED POOOOOWEEEER! Joe Biden has done what you'd expect, threats of sanctions, but China might have its own word to say, especially now that east asia (1/3 of the world) are in the process of switching to their own economic area, something that is huge but has gone under the radar of the western media (with their own digital currency which was never going to be Bitcoin lmao at those that thought otherwise). This obviously adds to the paranoia of the western ruling class which is being threatened in Europe, and poo'ed their pants in the US when the capitol was stormed. A contested election that ends up in arrests? An estimated 80% of the US military supports Trump? They are getting nervous. > Defund the police: US White House panicking and more resolved than ever to turn the US into a police state 😆 *********************** Part of the reasons the WH is panicking is what I wrote in the previous point: populism, elections contest, a very real CH raid (irrational people become fully aware of something when it happens, when they physically see it happen they really start caring), and now a very real coup in Myanmar. Antifa & BLM have been rioting, they ignored it to win an election but they know it and they want to fight it. They also are afraid of civilian Trump supporters. So yeah, they are really turning the country in a police state. I crack up each time I see a braindead tv guy say that "Now that Trump is gone we are returning to normal" with shinny eyes and a big smile on his face. "Back to normal", where did I hear that before? Boy this is just the start. Textbook complacency and denial. > Top epidemiologists publish covid papers that make EU bureaucrats look stupid & France far-right would win 😏 *********************** The EU, and the EU representatives are being shaken. The french president, which is the least smart one since at least 1950 (I don't know the previous ones), is started to rage and panic, he called the France "a country of 66 million prosecutors" and whined that it was normal to make mistakes "we all make them every single day". Really? Every day? How bad are you? Calamity Joe. Even the mainstream parties and media are starting to ask questions, here is an article about the Swedish health agency asking clarity on what it is paying for: www.reuters.com   Here is a paper by Ioannidis, the world nb 1 epidemiologist (203 h-index), showing that lockdowns were very likely to be useless (and even favor the spread of the virus), as I predicted 9 months ago I may add: www.medrxiv.org He recently wrote "Congratulations on your editorial highlighting the depressing levels of “corruption” taking place in the name of “beating the pandemic”. Scrutiny certainly deserves to be directed towards conflicts of interest within members of SAGE and scientific/medical advisors..." Link to the full thing: www.bmj.com Things are looking grim for the liberal bourgeois globalist "elite". Times are changing. Ah back in 2002 the France major far right party got to the presidential 2nd turn and average people voted in mass to "be a barrier to radical extremism", in 2017 they were in the 2nd turn again and got 33% votes, and now a poll showed they had 50% vote intentions. People showing their discontent, I'm not sure they read the program of the Rassemblement National, cutting a hand for stealing an apple man this is harsh, ok I exaggerate but barely. And even with 1/5 of the votes they only get a handful of parliamentary seats, so I guess the first female president could only rule as a dictator? What an opposition, during a recent liberty-restriction vote in France here was the opposition (there are 577 deputies): Les républicains (centre-right in Europe, left of US democrats): 15/105 Socialistes (they need no introduction): 5/29 La France insoumise (radical left "rebels"): 5/17 - Where did they go? They talk a lot, and then? They had swimming pool? (French people will understand) Rassemblement National (far right): 0/6 - They are loving it, they would take harsher measures if they could, and the french would vote for this "opposition" 🤦‍♂️ In France the whole executive branch of the government is elected by the president, so this vote is important, the president is the head of state and face of the country, the Prime Minister is I guess the most powerful politician, technically he is 2nd after the president since the president can sack him and change him but he's the one that runs the country, an unelected guy that kissed enough bums to get nominated, and has no plan (seriously, past PMs got interviewed years later and they went "no idea how I ended up here, I had no plan no idea what to do I just followed"). I know this is a little long, but hey during the "covid emergency" the executive in France and Europe has completely bypassed the legislators (congress), soooo... If the far right gets nominated, even without any legislative power... If 60k deaths is enough for an emergency, they'll find something. I want to congratulate all the high IQ liberals that set a precedent to enable the next Hitlers to become dictators without even trying. Great job. I'm actually genuinely impressed. > Davos New World Order chat: Putin & Xi Jinping warn elites will lead to war that will "end our civilization" 💥 *********************** The chat with the "common folk" has been postponed to June, but the usual head of states / governments chats have taken place. Just going to link the articles. 1- The Putin article "The crackdown on civil liberties by the elites will lead to a terrible war", with a link to a video of him speaking via CNBC: newspunch.com 2- Winnie the Pooh sperging something about a cold war: www.hindustantimes.com 3- They spoke of global taxation of tech giants at Davos, and Germany says they spoke to Yellen which seems to agree! About time the US paid its fair share to Europe. Damn I am shaking while I am writing this. They have been scamming the world for too long. I do not support "eat the rich" UNLESS it's tech giants. F*** them. YEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! altnewscoin.com > BIS says banks representing 1/5 of the world population will release a Digital Currency in the next 3 years *********************** You know Bitcoin maximalist logic: => Since this is happening, it means digital currencies are getting adopted. This is good for Bitcoin. => If they would not be doing this, Bitcoin has a monopoly on the DC market. This is good for Bitcoin. www.finextra.com Also, "A recent survey indicates that 86% of central banks are conducting research or development in the area of CBDC". The most recent speech they uploaded: www.bis.org A little quote for fun: "Above all, investors must be cognisant that Bitcoin may well break down altogether. Bitcoin needs a hugely energy-intensive protocol, called “proof of work”, to safely process transactions. Currently, so-called miners sustain the system’s security, and are rewarded with newly minted coins. A sad side effect is that the system uses more electricity than all of Switzerland. In the future, as Bitcoin approaches its maximum supply of 21 million coins, the “seigniorage” to miners will decline. As a result, wait times will increase..." > IMF warns of risks (zzz): IMF finds new words: warns of ‘exceptional uncertainty’ in vaccine-driven recovery 😁 *********************** The IMF raises their GDP growth predictions and will increase them even more if the US approves of a 2 trillion relief package, wow this sounds like great news! Why don't we print infinite money? Infinite growth! "GDP is up 8000% this year after we printed 10000% of our MZM and spent it randomly on troll projects" wow so much progress! 🧠 financialpost.com Oh and they "warn of risks", that's not even funny anymore. Maybe the US economy grows by 20%, and my short position on the USD also grows by 20%?
by MrRenev
2
Dollar Index Resembles This Moment in Time Some traders may remember the historic selloff in the U.S. dollar that began in late 2002. Current conditions appear similar. Notice on this chart how the U.S. dollar index pushed to a new 52-week low and then consolidated. Notice how the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) tried to turn higher but failed. Notice how DXY also tested the 100-day SMA and failed. Now look at this chart from 2001-2002, showing similar events. Also consider that both 2002 and 2020 followed periods of dollar strength and troubles overseas. The late 1990s had the global debt crises, while the last 5-8 years had ongoing weakness in Europe. Speaking of Europe, everyone’s waiting for a deal between Westminster and Brussels to avert a “hard Brexit” on December 31. An agreement ending the uncertainty would probably spur confidence in the euro and drag the dollar index lower. Finally, consider that the dollar’s breakdown in late 2002 was followed by several years of global stocks outperforming. Something similar could occur now, especially given the ongoing strength in Chinese stocks and relative “cheapness” of European stocks (based on P/E ratios). TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
TVC:DXYShort
by TradeStation
11
State of Everything - HTF Technicals and Econometrics (Oct '20)In this analysis I'll be evaluating 12 different econometric and technical indicators to see if we can get a feel for BTC's direction over the coming days/weeks/months. This is part of a regular series that I post whenever a significant shift is apparent within a net total evaluation of these metrics. Note - Some of these indicators are not widely known. At the bottom of this analysis I'll post references to educational articles that describe some of the more exotic indicators. ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 1 - Headline Photo (Shown Above): ____________________________________________________________________________ Top left - Golden Ratio Multiplier (info in "resources" section below): The golden ratio multiplier has been one of the strongest indicators for spotting opportune buying/selling opportunities as well as key dynamic support and resistances. During the great 'rona selloff of 2020, we spiked down to the 2x 350SMA multiplier, the exact support that reversed the 2018/2019 selloff and launched us into 2019's bull run (and later ruined by the pandemic). We're just launched off 111 DMA, the moving average that is at the core of this indicator's functionality, after consolidating above for over a month. The fact that the 111DMA held as support and provide a launch point to above is overall, bullish. Top right - Guppy: I use the Guppy as a strong check for bias. Green - I am bullish , gray - neutral, red - bearish. We just flipped green, bullish. Note: check my scripts for this indicator with backtesting Bottom left - Log channel: BTC has spent almost its entire life between the white log channels. Taking this indicator alone, we are currently backtesting the channel support. Bearish. Bottom right - Ichimoku Cloud (1d) + significant EMAs + RSI: The current price is above both the Tenkan and Kijun and a green cloud. This is by-the-books bullish. Price is also above the 55 (yellow), 99 (blue) and 200 (red) EMA's. While the 99, my personal favorite, was challenged there, the price ultimately flipped it as support and used it as a launching point for this recent (albiet small) surge. Bullish. ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 2: ____________________________________________________________________________ Top left - S&P500 Correlation: Unfortunately, this indicator says more than most at this time. Ever since the pandemic kicked off economic uncertainty, BTC's correlation with the S&P500 has felt unshakeable. The good news is that the SPY is bullish now as traders speculate over a new economic deal, but I can't help but feel bummed that crypto is still being dictated by the greater market with every move. Regardless, bullish. Top right - Futures premiums: The last few bull runs have been futures-driven rallies where both the quarterly (blue) and weekly (yellow) contracts have been trading at a premium over spot. Recently we had a period where weekly contracts were trading below, but quarterly was trading above - read as confusion in the market and high uncertainty. Good news - we now have both weeklies and quarterlies trading at a positive premium, which is bullish. I would like to the see the weekly premiums a little higher, but still, I'll take it. Bullish. Bottom left - Puell Mulitple (info in "resources" section): In short, this metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - Bitcoin miners and their revenue. Specifically, BTC issuance to miners. When issuance is low, investors during that period historically have outsized returns. At this time issuance is in a slightly low phase, but not outstandingly abnormal. There is a lot of room to run upwards, but still some room downwards as well. We did however have a recent dip to a Puell of 0.55, which was very close to the ideal buy range, and quite a good buy opportunity in and of itself. Even now as we are around 0.85 Puell, we are quite low and indicates that hodlers (multi-year), should be quite fine to accumulate here while staying weary that better buying opportunities may present itself. For scale, 0.5 Puell and below is a near instant-buy for me. Net, neutral, slightly bullish. Bottom right - weekly cloud, 21 MA, RSI: There's a lot to look at here, let's start with cloud. The weekly cloud is still bullish with the price above both the Tenkan and Kijun and the bullish cloud twist. A cloud enthusiast would have seen the drop to $9.8 as a simple bullish retest of the weekly Tenkan and a good buy opportunity; which sure enough it was. The last thing I want to note with the weekly cloud is that I would like to see the Kijun have a bullish trend of its own, and close the gap between it and the Tenkan. While absolutely bullish overall, with the Kijun where it is, any bearish shifts may have a violent drop, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there - overall the weekly cloud is quite bullish. Next let's take a look at the 21MA on the weekly. Historically speaking, the 21MA has an almost magical effect for spotting good buy opportunities early or even mid-trend. Reading that alone, there is a beautiful confluence of the 21MA with the Tenkan, with the 21MA also indicating the drop to $9,800 as a good buy. Lastly, the weekly RSI is always an interesting one to watch. The 54 RSI value has played a significant role in past bull runs, where every test is bought up and fuels further continuation. While we've only tested it twice now both tests were successful and can only be read as possibly entering another run. I don't consider 2 to be a pattern, but a couple more successful tests would confirm and should make bulls quite happy, a breakdown should make bears happy. In total: Weekly Cloud bullish, 21MA bullish, RSI bullish (with hopes for further confirmation). ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 3: ____________________________________________________________________________ Note: With exception to Stock to Flow, this page mostly consists of long term indicators used to spot extremes where buying/selling is most profitable. There is little change from the last BTC State of Everything Address. Top left - 2y MA Multiplier: We are about 20% of the distance above the 2y MA support. The current price did just proceed a dip below, which historically has sprung a long term (multi-year) bull run. Long term, bullish . Near term, neutral/irrelevant. Top right - Stock to Flow: This crowd favorite needs no introduction, but info is in the "resources" section if needed. We're currently in the early stage of the orange phase of stock to flow, which has historically been a bullish period with lots of chop along a slow grind up. Yep, that feels about right doesn't it? The read here is that anything can happen on daily or even weekly timeframes. Traders of daily to weekly timeframes have little to get from this, longer term holders (months/years) should perceive as bullish. Near/mid term neutral, long term bullish. Bottom left - Pi Cycle (info in "resources" section): Fantastic for sniping tops, we can also glean some info about buy timing. Historically speaking, the Pi Cycle is bullish above the 111 DMA (pink), euphoric above the 2x350 DMA (green), and primed to sell when the 111 DMA crosses above the 2x350 DMA. Additionally, when bullish, buying dips to the 111 DMA support has proved profitable. However, the 111 DMA is also the core dependency of the Golden Ratio Multiplier from Page 1, so in this particular scenario should not yield additional weight when evaluating all the indicators as a whole. Bullish, but omitting from net-sum calculation (below). Bottom right - BTC Network Momentum (info in "resources" section): Our momentum is quite low. In fact, it hasn't been this low since 2015. That said, BTCNM does have clear supports, and we are teetering on one of the supports now. Neutral for now, but a break of that support would be a clear bearish sign. ____________________________________________________________________________ SUMMARY: ____________________________________________________________________________ Golden ratio multiplier: bullish Guppy: bullish Log channel: bearish Daily cloud: bullish S&P500 Correlation: bullish (but not ideal) Futures premiums: slightly bullish Puell multiple: long term bullish, mid term neutral Weekly cloud: bullish Weekly 21MA: bullish Weekly RSI: bullish 2y MA Multiplier: long term bullish, short/mid term neutral Stock to flow: long term bullish , short/mid term neutral BTC network momentum: neutral ____________________________________________________________________________ CONCLUSION: ____________________________________________________________________________ Bullish - it's this kind of alignment of indicators that I like to see when determining bias. Right now the net sum of the indicator results are clearly bullish, and despite my feelings (I was leaning bearish previously), the data is clear. Putting my emotions aside and reading this for what it is, it's time to take the short shorts off and put on the long pants. I hope you guys enjoyed this meta analysis of BTC! I have years of experience trading crypto, but am just now beginning to publish my ideas, secret-sauce scripts and handy tools. If you appreciated this post and would like to see more, a like or a follow would be greatly appreciated 😁. ____________________________________________________________________________ RESOURCES: ____________________________________________________________________________ To stay compliant with TradingView house rules, I am unable to post links to these educational articles directly, but I highly encourage you to google them and seek them out. I have taken steps to ensure these resources are purely educational in nature. Super Guppy TradingView Strategy: unable to link, but check my scripts for source. Includes backtesting, multiples settings, and different risk profiles. Golden Ratio Multiplier: "The Golden Ratio Multiplier" by PositiveCrypto Puell Multiple: "The Puell Multiple Bed" by Unconfiscatable Stock to Flow: "Modeling Bitcoins Value With Scarcity" by 100trillionUSD Pi Cycle: There's a good section on this near the bottom of the Golden Ratio Multiplier article. BTC Network Momentum: "Bitcoin Network Momentum" by Good Audience
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by StanleyBostich
2
Eurodollar, Negative Interest Rates, and the S&P (Post 8ish)Twice since 2000 the eurodollar future as pumped to near 100 and at both times the midpoint consolidation marked a bull trap within the S&P. Our current set of circumstances is unique as a third touch at resistance puts the eurodollar future above 100, which signals negative interest rates in the real world and outside the control of the Federal Reserve. How the Fed will respond to this remains to be seen. How market will respond to this remains to be seen. There are several countries with interest rates ranging from -0.1 to -0.75 and if the Eurodollar goes above 100 we should see a whole lot more. www.investopedia.com The chart below zooms in on the eurodollar and SPX. The eurodollar and SPX both hit a local low at the same time and the Eurodollar shows a textbook BARR bottom. It is clear that the flagpole bewteen consolidation 1 and 2 was timed with the dump in SPX. Consolidation 2 overlaps what I believe to be a bear trap in the eurodollar. Another flag pole should throw SPX price action to the ground. thepatternsite.com Here is a side by side view on the eurodollar and S&P. As I have recently been mentioning elsewhere I am using the Volatility Stop to try and help be refine the timing of my entries and steadying my hands to help me let my winners run when they are in a consolidation pattern and I start to doubt my big picture. The chart has a lot of sound theory, SPX support flipping to resistance, a indicator suggesting trend reversal on SPX, a micro acceding triangle in the Eurodollar chart and a stop loss all in one. If we see the SPX price action reverse and close a candle body above 3166 the trade is over or on hold. If the eurodollar dumps as the acceding triangle fails to to perform the trade is canceled or on hold. Here is another look at an asset that had a BARR bottom and hit full flag pole performance after Consolidation 2. There are a lot of differences between the eurodollar and bitcoin and the main one would be the macro-structure both are in. Key would be bitcoin hitting a lower high on this BARR bottom but I am calling for a higher high on the eurodollar. Clear performance should only be a week or two away. Really close. Of course, I am not a financial advisor, nor am I a certified market technician. Take a look at my linked post, you will see me being right on a lot of theory, but you will also see me getting the timing wrong quite a bit. There was still a lot of money to be made on the swing trades, but I was looking for that big move that I think is coming shortly. I still see this as a subvert currency war against China due to their eurodollar exposure and how the US has been probably using the Dollar Milkshake Theory to influence the dollar shortage so it will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially in the Chinese market.
GShort
by This_Guhy
2
Cash is King, Bull run incoming! M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1 With this increase in cash flow & asset holding, I wouldn't expect a bear cycle anytime soon!
FRED:WM2NSLong
by UnknownUnicorn387554