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XAU/USD | Gold Volatility High – Correction or New Rally? (READ)By analyzing the gold chart on the 1-hour timeframe, we can see that after climbing to $3,897 yesterday, the price sharply corrected down to $3,819. From this demand level, gold rebounded and filled the liquidity gap, rallying up to $3,890.5. Right after touching this key supply zone, heavy selling pressure pushed the price down to $3,866. Currently, gold is trading around $3,878, and we need to see if it can hold below $3,883. If it stabilizes under this level, we can expect a deeper correction. This analysis will be updated soon — don’t forget your support, friends! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
33
Gold Continues to Challenge Record Resistance Levels👋Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on OANDA:XAUUSD ? As of this writing, gold continues its upward momentum, having reached new highs as investors increase their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the near future. The concerns over the U.S. government shutdown and global economic instability have further strengthened gold’s position as a safe haven asset. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar is under pressure due to expectations of monetary easing, which is paving the way for further gains in gold. Technically, gold is currently consolidating in a range, repeating patterns seen in the past. The current support level is around $3,815, while the immediate resistance is near the $3,900 mark. If the price breaks this resistance, the next target could be higher record levels. Overall, the short to medium-term outlook still favors the bulls. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
21
Weekly Gold Outlook: Safe-Haven Demand Fuels UptrendHello everyone, Last week gold demonstrated remarkable strength, quickly rebounding from its lows and closing at 3,887 USD/oz, up 50 USD from the session bottom. The main driver continues to be safe-haven demand amid US political uncertainty and the weakening dollar. On the macro side, the US government shutdown has entered its third day with no resolution in sight, heightening concerns over its impact on the economy and reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge. At the same time, the USD weakened and Treasury yields stayed elevated, both boosting the attractiveness of the metal. Oil prices also rebounded modestly after a decline, providing additional support. Looking ahead to the new week, the bias remains bullish. As long as gold holds above 3,850 USD, prices could extend towards 3,900 and 3,920 USD, and even approach the psychological 4,000 USD level if safe-haven inflows remain strong. Alternatively, should gold lose the 3,850 USD support, a correction back to 3,800 USD is possible before resuming higher. Still, with US political turmoil lingering and the Fed maintaining a cautious stance, the broader uptrend remains intact. This week, gold faces the chance to break higher. Do you think gold can surpass 3,900 USD in the coming days?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EmmaChartist
5
BTC/USDT | BTC Uptober Begins – Massive Rally Loading!By analyzing the Bitcoin chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price moved exactly as expected — it hit the $118,000 target and even rallied up to $123,900 . After reaching this key supply zone, which we had marked earlier, BTC faced selling pressure and is now trading around $121,800. If Bitcoin can hold and stabilize above $120K , we could see a new ATH soon ! “Uptober” has just begun, and it looks like we’re in for a strong bullish month. The next upside targets are $125K, $132K, and $138K. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
8
The Gold Bulls Take Control!Hi everyone, Kilian here! Let’s talk about XAUUSD. Gold is showing a clear and structured bullish trend right now. The price continues to move within a well-established ascending channel, and the price action has consistently respected both the upper and lower boundaries. This suggests that the buying pressure remains strong. The next logical step for me is a break above the current resistance zone. If we see that breakout, I expect the price to pull back briefly to test the support level before continuing its upward movement. A successful retest of support would solidify the bullish structure and set the stage for a move toward the 3,970 level, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel. However, if the resistance proves too strong and the breakout doesn’t happen, this could signal a weakening of the bullish momentum. In that case, we could see a deeper pullback toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, offering another potential entry point. It’s crucial to always confirm your setups and manage risk properly. Be prepared for both scenarios, and best of luck with your trades!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kiliann_Dang
2
GOLD → Consolidation before continued growth. Trigger 3863FX:XAUUSD is consolidating in the range of 3837.8 - 3863.7, preparing for its seventh consecutive week in positive territory. Despite a correction from a record high of $3897, the metal remains supported by a combination of the Fed's dovish policy and geopolitical risks. Key supporting factors: Expectations of Fed easing: Dovish sentiment continues to fuel interest in gold. Geopolitical tensions and tougher G7 sanctions against Russia. The ongoing shutdown is delaying the release of US data, increasing uncertainty. Important: If markets ignore the shutdown, gold may face a correction. US services data (ISM Services PMI) and Fed speeches: May adjust rate expectations. Resistance levels: 3863.7, 3900 Support levels: 3853, 3837, 3825 Focus on the current consolidation range of 3863 - 3837. Before attempting a breakout, a retest of support may form within the consolidation. The trend remains bullish, as does the sentiment at the moment. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
11
Gold Bulls Warming Up for the Next Rally After PullbackHi guys Gold is still respecting the ascending channel structure, creating higher highs and higher lows. The price has already reacted strongly from the demand (S&D) zone around 3820–3840, pushing back toward the upper side of the channel. 🔎 At this stage, the key area to watch is the green supply zone near 3880–3900. I expect the price to test this zone, where a short-term correction is likely. After a possible pullback toward the mid/lower boundary of the channel, the bullish momentum should continue, with the next upside targets aligning with the 3920–3940 area. Trend bias: Bullish Key levels: Resistance: 3880 – 3900 (supply zone) Next target: 3920 – 3940 🚀 If the channel structure remains intact, dips should be seen as buying opportunities, with the overall trend pointing higher. Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by melikatrader94
4
DeGRAM | GOLD held the lower boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● XAU/USD is trading within an ascending channel, with repeated rebounds from the lower trendline confirming bullish momentum. ● Price is approaching resistance near 3,894, and a breakout above 3,871 would strengthen the case for an extension toward 3,900 and higher. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Gold demand is supported by market caution over U.S. economic outlook and expectations of potential rate cuts in 2025, enhancing its safe-haven appeal. ✨ Summary ● XAU/USD remains bullish above 3,852 support, targeting 3,871–3,894, with rising channel momentum and supportive fundamentals favoring further upside. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
4
XAUUSD: Rally will Continue inside Upward ChannelHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup. Market Analysis From a broader perspective, the market for Gold has been in a complex but strong uptrend. We've seen the price break out of an initial consolidation and push through multiple support levels, like the one at 3700, establishing a clear bullish market structure defined by an Upward Channel. Currently, after a strong rally, the price has entered a corrective phase. This pullback is guiding the price down towards the major ascending trend line, which has acted as the backbone for this entire upward move. This is a critical area to watch for a potential reaction. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario is built on the idea that this correction is a healthy pullback within a larger uptrend. The major ascending trend line is a significant structural level, and I expect it to act as strong dynamic support, providing a logical place for buyers to re-enter the market. Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this bounce. A successful defense of the trend line would validate the long scenario. The primary target for the next impulsive wave higher is 3945, which aligns with the resistance line of the upward channel. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ratner
3
GOLD DAILY CHART UPDATEHey Everyone, So we finish off with an amazing close to this week with all our chart ideas complete. This Daily chart has now closed above the 3866 final target level, which means the range above is open. We will update the new range and levels above on Sunday, so keep an eye out for our multi-timeframe analysis. ✅ 3866 Target Achieved with close above Key Levels 📉 Support: 3776 / 3683 📈 Resistance: 3866 What’s Next? We’ll be back on Sunday with a fresh Daily chart idea, updated targets, and a full multi-timeframe analysis to guide the next leg of the journey. Stay tuned – momentum is only heating up from here! Thank you for the continued support, and congratulations to everyone who rode this move with us. Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
5
Gold Under Short-Term Pressure, Still a Safe-Haven AssetHello everyone, gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing notable volatility after recently marking a new high at 3,890 USD/oz before quickly retreating to 3,859 USD. Heavy profit-taking at record levels has created short-term downward pressure, yet the longer-term uptrend remains intact. On the technical side, gold maintains a clear bullish structure with consecutive Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Fair Value Gaps (FVG) formed around 3,860–3,800 USD highlight important support zones should prices extend their pullback. Moreover, the price remains above the Ichimoku cloud, signalling that the prevailing uptrend is still in place, and a retest of cloud support could serve as a healthy consolidation phase before the next breakout. From a news perspective, the correction has largely been driven by profit-taking after reaching all-time highs. However, the ongoing US government shutdown, now in its second day, continues to support gold’s safe-haven role. Spending cuts, the risk of widespread federal worker layoffs, and the negative impact on business confidence are all fuelling economic uncertainty, driving flows back into precious metals. In this environment, gold remains a key defensive asset, particularly as the Fed may maintain a dovish policy stance. In the short term, gold could continue to test support levels at 3,850 USD and 3,830 USD. Should demand emerge at these areas, a rebound towards 3,880–3,900 USD is likely, marking the next upside target. The current correction appears technical in nature and insufficient to alter the dominant bullish trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EmmaChartist
6
Gold Holds Strong as USD Weakens Amid Economic Uncertainty👋Hello traders, what do you think about the current trend of OANDA:XAUUSD ? Today, gold continues to hold above its high price levels, supported by a weaker USD and the demand for safe-haven assets amid the growing risk of a U.S. government shutdown. At the same time, the weak employment data further reinforces expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this month. Since the beginning of the year, gold has surged about 45%. Currently, this precious metal is just shy of the $4,000/ounce mark, reflecting strong investor confidence in gold during times of uncertainty. On the other hand, with the U.S. government shutdown, sentiment towards the U.S. tends to turn negative, impacting both the USD and U.S. stocks. In fact, the latest ADP employment report shows that the U.S. private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the forecast of only 3,000 job losses in August, heightening concerns about the U.S. economy. Given the current political tensions and economic instability, with a 99% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates, according to CME FedWatch, gold could continue its strong upward momentum. Investing in gold in this environment could continue to yield significant profits. Do you think the same? 💬 Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Kevinn_Nguyen
38
Gold can Start a Corrective Move After a Strong RallyHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The broader market context for Gold has been decidedly bullish since the price reversed and broke out from a prior descending channel. This structural shift established a new uptrend, which has since been neatly contained within a well-defined ascending channel, guiding the price action of XAU higher through a series of higher highs and higher lows. After breaking two key levels, the price has completed another full rotation and is now at a critical inflection point. Currently, the asset is trading very close to the resistance line of this ascending channel. My strategy is based on the expectation that the price will reach this line and then be rejected, initiating a corrective decline. I think that after such a strong run, a pull-back is a probable scenario. A confirmed reversal from this upper boundary would validate the short idea. Therefore, I have placed my TP at 3715 points. As noted, this is an intermediate target not located at a major support zone, designed to capture the initial phase of the anticipated downward correction. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
16
Gold: Technical Pause Before US Data StormHello everyone, gold has just marked a new peak at $3,890/oz before pulling back slightly, a common pause in an ongoing uptrend. But the story is not just about technicals – this week the spotlight is on a series of major news releases from the US. Is this merely a “technical landing” or a preparation for another bullish wave? News Context: US Shutdown: For the first time in nearly seven years, the US government faces a shutdown. This not only disrupts public services and risks delayed federal salaries, but it could also postpone key economic data such as the NFP if the closure drags on. With fewer data points, markets tend to price in more uncertainty, putting pressure on the USD and Treasury yields – factors that usually support gold. Economic Data & the Fed: On the calendar, indicators like Unemployment Claims, JOLTS, and ISM will be critical in shaping policy expectations. If numbers weaken, the Fed has more reason to soften its stance, which supports gold. However, if the Fed reverts to a “hard anti-inflation” tone, gold could see sharper swings. Flows & Sentiment: The profit-taking after gold touched $3,890 is perfectly normal within a bull trend. Importantly, there are no signs of large-scale distribution – suggesting that big money continues to hold long positions. Technical Analysis: The uptrend remains intact as gold keeps its Higher High – Higher Low structure. The fresh peak at $3,890 confirms the bullish pattern, while the current pullback is just a retracement. Key Supports: The shallow FVG zone at $3,855–3,845 is the first line of defence, with deeper support at $3,821–3,819. In strong trends, gold often rebounds from the shallow zone. Main Scenario: A test of $3,855–3,845 followed by a rebound toward $3,878–3,885, then $3,895–3,905, and possibly extending to $3,915–3,925. Invalidation Point: A H1 close below $3,814 would call the bullish scenario into question. So what do you think: will gold bounce right from the shallow support, or does it need a deeper test before breaking above $3,900?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EmmaChartist
13
Massive correction on Gold (BTMM)Hey there traders, According to BTMM by Steve Mauro, we’ve just completed an extended rise from 3663 to 3900, which signals the potential setup for a **massive sell position**. Here’s what I’m looking at: * First target: 3152 * Once that level is broken, next target: 2774 Remember - without market structure, the world of trading wouldn’t function. For a deeper dive into this analysis and more real-time breakdowns, make sure to check out my YouTube channel. Stay sharp and trade safe!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by thenotoriousfx
3
XAUUSD Continues on Its Path to Conquer Record-High Levels👋Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on the trend of OANDA:XAUUSD ? Today, I'll provide a long-term perspective. XAUUSD has recently surged, driven by global instability, particularly the Fed's rate cuts. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has also led investors to turn to gold as a safe haven, contributing to the significant price increase. From a technical standpoint, gold is showing a strong bullish structure over the long term, with a clear breakout above key resistance levels. After consolidating around the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement support zone, the price has rebounded and is now heading towards the Fibonacci extension zone. This area is considered the first major take-profit target, also coinciding with the psychological level at $4,000 ( a common target for 2025 ). With both market structure and fundamental analysis supporting the bullish outlook, I remain optimistic about both the short and long-term prospects for XAUUSD. What do you think about the XAUUSD trend? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
3
Bullish bounce?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance level, which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 3,790.67 1st Support: 3,724.29 1st Resistance: 3,889.12 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
1
The long position at 3840 for gold was a huge success.This week's gold trading has come to an end, and the gold price finally closed at around US$3,885 per ounce, which is highly consistent with our previous prediction. Judging from the trend of the whole week, the market encountered short-term resistance after a rapid rise and experienced a large-scale technical correction, but the overall upward trend remained unchanged. We decisively placed long orders at key support levels, successfully seized the subsequent rebound, achieved the expected profit target, and the account's return performance was stable and considerable. Looking back at the operational details this week, when the gold price fell back to the 3840 area, we immediately reminded investors that they could consider building long positions in batches. This position is not only an important support for the previous oscillation platform, but also the overlapping area of the daily Bollinger band middle track and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, which has strong technical support significance. The price then stabilized and rebounded. When the gold price broke through 3855 and stabilized, we again issued a signal to increase our positions, further improving the efficiency of our position. When the market continued to rise to the 3870 line, we also promptly notified VIP members to add long orders, fully seizing the main upward wave stage of this round of rise. This series of precise operations was not accidental; it was based on a thorough analysis of market structure, technical patterns, and macroeconomic fundamentals. The latest inflation data released by the Federal Reserve recently was slightly lower than expected. The market's expectations for a slower pace of future interest rate hikes continued to rise, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the downward pressure on real interest rates increased. These factors all provide strong support for gold, an interest-free asset. At the same time, the global geopolitical situation remains tense, and the trend of many countries increasing their gold reserves has not changed, providing solid bottom support for gold prices. From a technical perspective, the weekly MACD has formed a golden cross with large volume, the RSI indicator is in a healthy range, and the upward momentum is still continuing. The price has now effectively broken through the previous high of 3860 resistance and completed a pullback above 3880 to confirm its progress. The next important target is the psychological level of 3900. If it can maintain above 3870 at the beginning of next week, the possibility of accelerated upward movement cannot be ruled out. Comprehensively judging, gold's medium-term upward trend remains intact and there has been no fundamental change in the bullish pattern. We maintain our previous view: the overall bullish outlook for gold remains unchanged, and any short-term pullback is merely a normal correction in the upward trend. Looking ahead to next week, with the release of more economic data and policy signals, gold prices are expected to hit and stabilize at the $3,900 mark. Thank you all for your continued attention and trust. Every precise decision is the result of our deep respect for the market and our continuous research. Let us look forward to the arrival of a new round of market conditions, continue to proceed steadily, and seize the opportunities that belong to us. In advance, I wish you all a happy weekend, a relaxing weekend, and see you all next week! I will use the weekend to develop a detailed trading plan for next week. If you don't have a trading idea, please visit my tg channel to get one!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Martin_Trading_Guide
XAUUSD (Gold) Technical Analysis & Trading ForecastXAUUSD (Gold) Technical Analysis & Trading Forecast Current Price: $3,886.75 | Date: October 4, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 Executive Summary Gold is trading at historic levels above $3,880, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential monetary policy shifts. The asset is currently testing critical resistance zones while maintaining bullish momentum across multiple timeframes. Both intraday and swing traders should monitor key technical levels for optimal entry and exit strategies. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Monthly & Weekly Perspective (Swing Trading) Gold has experienced significant appreciation in 2025, with the current price action suggesting a continuation of the long-term uptrend that began in late 2022. Monthly charts reveal: Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold appears to be in Wave 5 of a major impulse sequence, targeting the $4,000-$4,200 zone based on Fibonacci extensions from previous wave structures. Ichimoku Cloud (Monthly): Price is trading well above the cloud with bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross, confirming strong trend strength. The cloud ahead remains thin, suggesting limited resistance until $4,050. Gann Analysis: Using the Square of 9 methodology from the 2020 low ($1,450), the current price aligns with the 315-degree angle, projecting next major resistance at $4,015 (360-degree completion) and $4,180 (next 45-degree increment). Key Weekly Support/Resistance Levels: Major Resistance: $3,920, $4,015, $4,180 Primary Support: $3,850, $3,765, $3,680 Critical Support: $3,580 (weekly 50 EMA) Daily Chart Analysis Candlestick Patterns: The recent price action shows a series of bullish engulfing patterns following pullbacks, indicating strong buying pressure at lower levels. Wyckoff Analysis: The current phase suggests we are in a re-accumulation schematic, with recent consolidation between $3,850-$3,920 representing a potential spring or test before continuation to higher targets. Harmonic Patterns: A bullish Gartley pattern completed at $3,765, projecting targets at $3,950 (0.618 retracement) and $4,050 (1.272 extension). RSI (Daily): Currently at 68, approaching overbought territory but not yet extreme. Historical analysis shows gold can sustain RSI above 70 for extended periods during strong trends. Bollinger Bands: Price is riding the upper band, with bandwidth expansion indicating increasing volatility. The middle band at $3,820 serves as dynamic support. Moving Averages: 20 EMA: $3,842 (immediate support) 50 EMA: $3,765 (critical support) 200 EMA: $3,580 (long-term trend confirmation) Golden Cross remains intact with 50 EMA well above 200 EMA Intraday Trading Strategy (Next 5 Trading Days) 4-Hour Chart Setup Current Structure: Gold is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at $3,920 and rising support trend line from $3,765. VWAP Analysis: Anchored VWAP from October 1st stands at $3,872. Price trading above indicates bullish control. Volume profile shows high volume node at $3,860-$3,870, serving as magnetic support zone. Scenario 1 - Bullish Breakout: Entry: Break and close above $3,920 on 4H chart with strong volume Target 1: $3,965 (measured move from triangle) Target 2: $4,015 (Gann resistance) Target 3: $4,050 (Harmonic target) Stop Loss: $3,875 (below VWAP and triangle support) Risk/Reward: 1:3 Scenario 2 - Retracement Play: Entry: Pullback to $3,850-$3,860 zone with bullish reversal candle Target 1: $3,900 Target 2: $3,920 (triangle resistance) Stop Loss: $3,830 (below 20 EMA on 4H) Risk/Reward: 1:2.5 1-Hour Chart Tactical Levels Immediate Resistance Zones: $3,900-$3,905 (prior consolidation area) $3,920-$3,925 (major resistance cluster) $3,950 (psychological level) Immediate Support Zones: $3,872-$3,875 (VWAP & prior resistance turned support) $3,860-$3,865 (high volume node) $3,850 (minor swing low) RSI (1H): Currently 58, neutral zone with room to move higher. Watch for bullish divergence on pullbacks. Bollinger Bands (1H): Price oscillating between middle and upper band. Squeeze conditions suggest potential breakout imminent. 15-Minute & 5-Minute Scalping Strategy Best Trading Sessions: London open (08:00-12:00 UTC+4) and US open (15:30-19:30 UTC+4) for highest volatility and volume. Entry Criteria: Price must be above 15-min 50 EMA for long entries RSI pullback to 40-50 zone followed by bullish momentum surge Volume confirmation (above 20-period VWMA) Scalping Levels (Valid for next 5 days): Buy Zone: $3,875-$3,885 (quick 10-15 point targets) Sell Zone: $3,915-$3,925 (if rejection occurs) Stop Loss: Maximum 20 points ($200/contract) Target: 15-25 points ($150-$250/contract) Pattern Recognition: Watch for bull flags on 15-minute chart during uptrends as continuation patterns, typically resolving within 3-6 candles. Swing Trading Strategy (1-4 Week Horizon) Primary Swing Setup - Long Position Entry Strategy: Preferred Entry: $3,850-$3,870 on any weekly pullback Aggressive Entry: Current levels with wider stop Conservative Entry: Wait for daily close above $3,920 Position Sizing: Allocate only 30-40% of capital initially, scaling in at lower levels if opportunity presents. Target Zones: Target 1: $4,015 (15% position exit) - Gann resistance Target 2: $4,180 (35% position exit) - Elliott Wave projection Target 3: $4,350 (30% position exit) - 1.618 Fibonacci extension Runner: Hold remaining position with trailing stop Stop Loss Management: Initial Stop: $3,765 (below daily 50 EMA) Move to breakeven once Target 1 is reached Trail stop at previous week's low as price advances Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:4 from current levels Alternative Swing Setup - Counter-Trend (Higher Risk) Entry Trigger: Daily close below $3,850 with increased volume Short Entry: $3,840-$3,850 Targets: $3,765 (T1), $3,680 (T2) Stop Loss: $3,920 Note: Only consider if clear reversal pattern forms (bearish engulfing, head and shoulders). Current trend remains bullish. Pattern & Theory Analysis Elliott Wave Count Primary Count: Wave 1: $1,810 to $2,150 (2023) Wave 2: $2,150 to $1,990 (correction) Wave 3: $1,990 to $3,200 (extended wave) Wave 4: $3,200 to $2,960 (complex correction) Wave 5: $2,960 to current (potentially targeting $4,200+) We appear to be in sub-wave 5 of larger Wave 5, suggesting final leg of impulse move approaching. Harmonic Patterns Completed Patterns: Bullish Gartley (completed at $3,765) Bullish Bat pattern (completed in September at $3,680) Potential Forming Patterns: Bullish Butterfly pattern developing with D point potential at $3,750 if retracement occurs Wyckoff Market Phases Current analysis suggests Phase D (markup) of re-accumulation schematic. Characteristics observed: Signs of Strength (SOS): Strong rallies from $3,765 to $3,920 Last Point of Support (LPS): Recent test at $3,850-$3,860 Backup to the edge of creek: Minor pullbacks quickly bought This suggests institutional accumulation continues with further upside likely. Gann Time & Price Projections Time Cycles: Significant Gann time windows approaching: October 7-9, 2025: 90-degree square from previous major low October 15-18, 2025: 180-degree opposition, potential reversal or acceleration point Price Squares: Square of current price ($3,886) suggests natural resistance at $3,969 (square root progression) Gann angles from September low project resistance at $3,985 Ichimoku Analysis Daily Ichimoku: Price above all cloud components (strongly bullish) Tenkan-sen (9): $3,868 Kijun-sen (26): $3,845 Senkou Span A: $3,810 Senkou Span B: $3,765 Cloud Interpretation: Thick bullish cloud below price provides strong support cushion. Future cloud remains green, suggesting trend continuation expected. Trap Scenarios Bull Trap Risk: If price breaks above $3,920 but fails to hold and reverses below $3,880 within 24 hours with high volume, this could signal a bull trap Probability: Low (15-20%) given current fundamental backdrop Bear Trap Watch: Any sharp drop below $3,850 that quickly reverses above $3,870 could trap bearish traders This would likely accelerate the next leg higher Probability: Moderate (35-40%) if pullback occurs Volume & Momentum Analysis Volume Profile: High volume acceptance between $3,800-$3,900 Point of Control (POC): $3,865 Low volume area above $3,950 suggests potential for rapid movement if breached VWAP Signals: Price consistently holding above daily VWAP indicates institutional buying Weekly VWAP at $3,820 serves as strong support for swing positions Volume volatility increasing suggests preparing for significant move RSI Across Timeframes: 5-min: 52 (neutral) 15-min: 58 (bullish lean) 1H: 58 (bullish lean) 4H: 64 (approaching overbought, still healthy) Daily: 68 (strong but not extreme) Weekly: 71 (overbought but sustainable in strong trends) Moving Average Analysis: All major EMAs in bullish alignment (20>50>200) No death cross signals on any timeframe Price trading above 20 EMA on all timeframes except 5-min (normal intraday oscillation) Market Context & External Factors Fundamental Backdrop While this is primarily a technical analysis, traders should be aware that gold's current strength reflects: Geopolitical tensions that may be supporting safe-haven demand Central bank policies and potential monetary easing cycles Currency fluctuations particularly USD weakness Inflation concerns that typically support precious metals Key Events to Monitor (Next Week) Federal Reserve speakers: Any dovish commentary could propel gold higher Geopolitical developments: Escalation or de-escalation affects safe-haven flows Economic data: Employment figures, inflation reports can trigger volatility Dollar Index movements: Inverse correlation with gold typically strong Recommended Approach: Maintain stop losses below technical support levels regardless of fundamental views. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Risk Management Guidelines Position Sizing Intraday Trades: Risk 0.5-1% of account per trade Maximum 2-3 concurrent positions Respect maximum daily loss limit of 2% account value Swing Trades: Risk 1-2% of account per position Scale in across multiple entries if possible Limit total gold exposure to 10-15% of portfolio Stop Loss Discipline Non-Negotiable Rules: Always set stop loss before entering position Never move stop loss further from entry (only toward profit) Exit immediately if stop is touched - no exceptions If stopped out twice from same level, wait for new setup Profit Taking Strategy Systematic Approach: Take partial profits at first target (never wrong to take profit) Move stop to breakeven after Target 1 Trail stop using previous swing lows (intraday) or daily lows (swing) Never let winner turn into loser once breakeven is reached Trading Plan Summary For Intraday Traders (Next 5 Days) Primary Focus: Watch for breakout above $3,920 or pullback to $3,860 support zone Best Times to Trade: London and US session opens for maximum liquidity Key Levels: Resistance: $3,920, $3,950, $4,000 Support: $3,875, $3,860, $3,850 Recommended Strategy: Buy dips near support with tight stops, or breakout trades above resistance with momentum confirmation For Swing Traders (1-4 Weeks) Primary Outlook: Bullish continuation toward $4,000-$4,200 zone Optimal Entry: Any pullback to $3,850-$3,870 represents opportunity Position Management: Scale in across multiple entries, scale out across multiple targets Major Resistance: $4,015 (Gann), $4,180 (Elliott Wave) Critical Support: $3,765 (daily 50 EMA) - break here invalidates bullish setup Conclusion & Final Recommendations Gold remains in a strong uptrend across all major timeframes with technical indicators supporting further appreciation. The current consolidation near all-time highs is typical behavior before the next leg higher. Both intraday and swing traders have clearly defined opportunities with favorable risk/reward ratios. Confidence Level: 75% probability of testing $4,000+ within next 2-4 weeks based on technical confluence Preferred Strategy: Buy dips with defined risk, scale out into strength Critical Warning: Any daily close below $3,765 would damage the bullish structure and require reassessment Next Major Update: October 11, 2025, or immediately following any significant technical breakout/breakdown Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading. The author is not responsible for any trading losses incurred based on this analysis. Next Update: October 11, 2025 Analysis Valid Through: October 18, 2025 Prepared using advanced technical analysis incorporating Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, Gann, Harmonic Patterns, Ichimoku, and modern momentum indicators.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
Gold Watching 3,850 Support as Dollar Weakens on UsGovt ShutdownHey Traders, in today’s trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 3,850 zone. Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently in a correction phase, with price approaching this important support/resistance level. Structure: Gold remains within an overall bullish structure and is also trading inside an ascending channel. Key level in focus: 3,850 — a key support zone where buyers may look to step in. Upside target: 3,930 — aligning with the channel resistance and potential area for bullish continuation. Fundamentals: The ongoing US government shutdown is adding bearish pressure on the US Dollar. Given Gold’s negative correlation with DXY, this environment continues to support the bullish bias for Gold. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
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