Gold After Dip: Correction or Start of a New Uptrend?Hello everyone, yesterday gold saw a noticeable pullback, dropping from its peak of $3,703/ounce to around $3,685/ounce, a decrease of about 18 pips. This correction stands out, especially after a strong rally in recent days.
The reasons behind this move are clear:
Profit-taking: After the significant rise, many investors decided to lock in profits, creating selling pressure.
USD recovery: The US dollar showed a mild recovery, reducing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Fed anticipation: With the upcoming Fed rate decision, market participants adopted a more cautious stance, leading to a slowdown in trading activity.
Looking ahead, where could gold be heading?
Scenario 1: If it holds above the support zone at $3,660–$3,650, gold could bounce back, potentially reaching $3,700 and beyond.
Scenario 2: A break below $3,650 could trigger further selling, possibly dragging gold down to the $3,600 level.
At this point, I lean towards the idea that gold will continue to consolidate around the support zone before a clearer trend emerges.
What do you think about the upcoming direction of gold? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Gold
Gold Futures — New Week Opens Strong After Friday RallyGold closed last week bullish after sweeping liquidity below the weekly low and snapping higher into resistance. As we open into Asian session Monday, price is testing the daily high (3719).
Key Scenarios This Week:
Bullish: If buyers hold above 3719, continuation toward 3743 (weekly fair value gap high) and potentially 3767 (ATH marker) could play out.
Bearish: A failure to hold above 3719 opens the door for retracement back toward 3700 → 3685 zone (last week’s supply area).
Opening conditions look bullish, but patience is key. Waiting to see if Asia sets the tone for continuation or if NY later in the week pulls it back.
Bullish continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,563.40
1st Support: 3,501.76
1st Resistance: 3,706.97
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Moving to the Day's resistanceDaily (D1)
The overall trend is clearly bullish. There has been an upside breakout on the daily timeframe, which could potentially mark the end of wave 3. Price is now consolidating in what looks like a sideways correction, likely forming wave 4.
H1
Price has rebounded from the daily support (lower range of the sideways zone). As long as the short-term uptrend on H1 holds, price should be able to test the upper boundary of the range without much difficulty.
m15
Not the best setup for buying at the moment, since price is already close to the daily range resistance. A valid buy could be considered only if a breakout occurs followed by a retracement with a favorable risk–reward setup.
For selling, it’s better to wait until a clear downtrend structure forms rather than attempting to counter-trade prematurely.
Summary
Price is moving within a range until either a breakout or a clearer correction structure develops. Possible approaches are:
Trade the range (buy near the lower boundary, sell near the upper boundary).
Or wait for a breakout and confirmation of continuation before entering.
XAUUSD Video Analysis Brief – Weekly Forecast Summary (2025)This video summarizes the key scenarios and technical outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe, integrating both Fibonacci-based projections and macro fundamentals.
Core Setup
Gold is currently positioned near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (~$3,276).
A breakout toward $3,500 is possible before a potential corrective move.
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Gold breaks above $3,435 → rallies to $4300 → continues toward major Fibonacci targets:
TP: $4,320, which is the Fibonacci level 261.8%
Scenario 2: Correction First
Gold fails to hold above $3,435 → triggers a healthy correction to:
TP1: $2,920
TP2: $2,650
If support 161.8% level holds in the correction zone, a renewed bullish phase is expected.
Macro Alignment
Central bank gold buying (notably BRICS) supports the long-term bid.
Fed policy leaning dovish → tailwinds for gold.
Inverse correlation with DXY:
DXY below 98.95 → bullish for gold
DXY above 100 → signals correction
Effect on Altcoins
If correction is risk-on driven, capital may rotate into altcoins.
If triggered by macro stress or USD strength, alts may fall alongside gold.
This analysis offers a multi-scenario framework to navigate the next major moves in gold, with key levels to watch for traders, investors, and macro analysts alike.
Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly TF 2025Overview
This analysis outlines the structural Fibonacci confluences, scenario planning, and macro-aligned projections for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe. It integrates multi-layered Fibonacci extensions and retracements, mapping out key support and resistance levels, and proposes a nuanced primary scenario that includes both intermediate rallies and corrective movements.
Primary Scenario – Multi-Stage Movement Hypothesis
We anticipate that gold may initially extend higher from the current level (~$3,325) to test the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $3,435, with the possibility of a further intermediate peak near $3,500. This level marks a psychological and technical resistance zone and could act as a temporary top.
Following this local peak, a corrective phase may unfold. This pullback could evolve into one of the two outlined correction scenarios:
1 TP Correction Scenario
Support Target: ~$2,950
Basis: 100% Fib extension confluence and prior resistance turned support
Expected Outcome: Price stabilizes at this level and resumes upward momentum
2 TP Correction Scenario
Support Target: ~$2,650
Basis: Strong historical structure + 100% Fib confluence from a broader cycle
Expected Outcome: This zone acts as a long-term demand accumulation area
Upon completion of the corrective structure, we expect gold to reinitiate its primary bullish trend.
Bullish Continuation Targets
TP1: ~$4,050 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
TP2: ~$4,319 (261.8% Fibonacci extension)
These targets align with macroeconomic conditions, central bank accumulation trends, and long-term structural cycles.
Supporting Technicals
RSI: Holding above 50, indicating preserved bullish momentum
MACD: Positive crossover with widening histogram on weekly timeframe
Price Action: Strong support zone between $3,280–$3,300 aligning with 161.8% Fib retracement of the recent minor wave
Macro Fundamentals & Correlations
Central Bank Gold Demand: Sustained net buying by BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, supports the structural bid on gold
Fed Policy: Market anticipates a prolonged pause or gradual rate cuts, favoring non-yielding assets like gold
DXY & US10Y Yields: Any further decline in DXY or softening yields would add tailwinds to gold
Crypto Correlation: During inflationary hedging or systemic risk periods, gold and crypto may correlate positively, especially with weakening USD
Intermarket Relationships: Gold, DXY, and TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap)
Gold vs. DXY (US Dollar Index)
Gold historically maintains an inverse correlation with DXY. A rising DXY tends to apply downward pressure on gold prices, while a falling DXY enhances gold's upside momentum.
Scenario Interactions:
If DXY breaks below 98, this could validate the bullish scenario for gold toward $3,435–$4,050.
If DXY rallies back above 100, it could trigger the correction scenarios ($2,950 or $2,650) in gold.
Gold vs. TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap)
Gold and TOTAL may show positive correlation during periods of USD weakening and global liquidity expansion.
Scenario Interactions:
If gold rallies toward $3,500 and TOTAL also breaks key resistance (e.g., $1.8T–$2T), this signals synchronized bullish risk appetite.
If gold corrects while TOTAL continues to rise, it could indicate rotation of liquidity from defensive to risk-on assets.
A simultaneous correction in both may occur if DXY strengthens aggressively or if macro shocks reduce global liquidity.
These intermarket relationships should be monitored continuously to assess the evolving macro context and validate the chosen scenario.
In the case of a gold correction toward $2,950 or $2,650, the impact on altcoins will hinge on the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop. If the correction stems from a healthy, technical rebalancing within a risk-on environment—without a concurrent surge in the U.S. dollar—it could signal a shift in capital from defensive assets like gold into more speculative plays, including altcoins. This type of capital rotation often benefits the crypto market, particularly if TOTAL (crypto market cap) holds or advances structurally. However, if the correction is caused by rising dollar strength, tightening financial conditions, or broader risk-off sentiment, altcoins may instead suffer alongside gold, as liquidity is withdrawn across the board. Therefore, the context and drivers behind gold’s correction are crucial in assessing its downstream effects on altcoin performance.
From a philosophical lens, gold's cyclical ascent and retreat mirrors the rhythm of nature and human experience—expansion, contraction, and renewal. Just as rivers carve valleys before surging toward the ocean, the market too must surrender gains to gather force. A correction in gold is not merely a financial event, but a moment of recalibration—an inhale before the next exhale of momentum. It invites reflection: whether wealth seeks refuge or ventures into risk, whether fear contracts or ambition expands. In this interplay, altcoins may inherit the restless spirit of capital in search of yield, as gold, the ancient anchor of value, briefly pauses in its timeless journey.
Conclusion
We present a multi-phased path for gold where:
An initial bullish breakout toward $3,435–$3,500 forms a short- to mid-term peak
A subsequent correction brings gold to either $2,950 or $2,650, depending on macro triggers
A renewed bull rally drives gold toward $4,050 and potentially $4,319 and beyond
This scenario reflects both the cyclical nature of market structure and the macro-fundamental backing that continues to support long-term gold strength.
Gold Price Reverses - Continues to Surge👋Hello everyone, what do you think about OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Although XAUUSD was impacted by the news of a drop in unemployment claims, the upward momentum continued to perform well on Friday. The price held strong above the $3,630 support zone and pushed the precious metal to new highs, rising by over 400 pips, or approximately 1.12%.
With the current price level, breaking through the immediate resistance could signal the start of the next rally, targeting the $3,700 level and potentially even higher. Previous pullbacks were necessary steps for reaching this target.
What do you think about the trend of XAUUSD? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Good luck!
Wall Street Weekly Outlook - Week 39 2025Every week I release a Wall Street Weekly Outlook that highlights the key themes, market drivers, and risks that professional traders are watching.
This week promises to be particularly important, with several events likely to move markets. 📊 Stay ahead of the curve—watch the video now and get prepared like a Wall Street insider.
Any questions? Drop a comment or reach out directly.
-Meikel
XAUUSD H4 Outlook – September 22Hello traders, this is the refined 4H map of Gold. Price is consolidating under the weak high at 3707, with supply capping the move. Below us sits a staircase of demand layers, while above, wide expansion zones open the path for continuation if buyers break through resistance.
🔸 Structure Context
The bullish leg from 3511 → 3707 is still intact.
Ceiling Block 3675–3695 is acting as the key resistance under the weak high.
Below, multiple demand pockets provide the ladder for potential retracement.
🟥 Refined Supply
“Ceiling Block” 3675–3695 → active H4 supply under weak high 3707. Break here signals bullish continuation.
🟦 Demand Layers
“Liquidity Base” 3625–3645 → fresh demand + liquidity pool, first defense if rejection occurs.
“Retracement Pocket” 3600–3575 → weaker block, inducement zone if Liquidity Base fails.
“Deeper Demand” 3560–3545 → structural order block with liquidity cluster.
“Wick Pool” 3530–3510 → extreme sweep low, deep discount demand.
🔼 Expansion Zones (if 3695–3707 breaks)
“First Expansion” 3750–3770 → immediate upside magnet after breakout.
“Second Expansion” 3785–3805 → continuation block, aligned with overhead liquidity.
“Premium Expansion” 3820–3840 → higher distribution area, premium reaction likely.
“Extended Sweep” 3890–3910 → ultimate liquidity grab above the range.
📌 Scenarios
Bullish Path: A close above 3695–3707 unlocks 3750–3770 first, then 3785–3805. With momentum, price could stretch into 3820–3840 and even 3890–3910.
Bearish Path: Failure at the Ceiling Block drags price back into the Liquidity Base 3625–3645. Breaking this base cascades price into 3600–3575 and deeper into 3560–3545.
✨ Do you expect Gold to break through 3707 and unlock the expansion ladder above, or will supply hold and pull us back into demand? Share your view below 👇 Don’t forget to like, follow, and comment to stay in sync with GoldFxMinds 🚀
GOLD → Breakthrough of correction resistance. Uptrend FX:XAUUSD entered a correction phase after the Fed meeting and interest rate cut, but by the end of the week, the market managed to recover from the decline and return to the zone of interest, breaking through the resistance of the downtrend...
The dollar is correcting after the Fed meeting on interest rates. The index is testing resistance at 97.5-98.0, and a false breakout of this zone could trigger a fall in the index, which in turn would only support the forex and gold markets...
At this time, the metal is reducing its correlation with the DXY and breaking the resistance of the downward correction, which is provoking an impulse to 3685. Technically, Friday's trading session is closing quite positively, which generally indicates a high level of demand.
I would highlight several key levels: the previously broken resistance at 3674 (below this zone there is a hidden liquidity pool) and resistance at 3685 (trigger). A retest of the lower level is possible before the price continues its growth. The target within the current movement can be considered 3700 - 3710.
Support levels: 3674, 3668, 3660
Resistance levels: 3685, 3703, 3710
If, during the Asian/Pacific session, gold consolidates without a pullback and closes above 3685, the market may continue to rise towards the specified target. However, if the market lacks potential (after the weekend), then MM may test 3674 - 3668 before the price returns to growth towards the target of 3700.
Best regards, R. Linda!
XAUUSD Daily Outlook – September 22Hello traders, today we refine the Gold map on the Daily timeframe. Price is pressing into refined supply, and the next candles will decide if we expand higher or correct into demand zones.
🔸 Structure & Context
Daily structure remains bullish since the CHoCH at 3350–3380 and BOS at 3435.
Current high sits inside the Daily Supply 3675–3705.
Below price, clean demand pockets remain untested.
🟥 Supply Zone
3675–3705 (Refined Supply) → active resistance, controlling today’s price action.
🟦 Demand Zones
3610–3580 → imbalance fill + liquidity pocket, first retracement area.
3540–3500 → wick demand pocket, secondary support.
3380–3350 → CHoCH origin demand, major structural base.
🔼 Upside Target Zones (if 3705 breaks)
3735–3755 → immediate expansion zone, first candle magnet.
3790–3810 → extended continuation zone.
3850–3865 → premium expansion zone.
3910–3930 → liquidity sweep zone above.
📌 Scenarios
Bullish: A daily close above 3705 would unlock 3735–3755 as the next candle target, with room to stretch into 3790–3810 and higher zones if momentum holds.
Bearish retracement: Rejection at 3675–3705 supply would send price into 3610–3580, with deeper correction possible toward 3540–3500.
✨ Do you expect Gold’s daily candles to break into 3735–3755 first, or is rejection at supply stronger? Share your thoughts below 👇 Don’t forget to follow GoldFxMinds for more daily precision plans 🚀
Weekly Gold Outlook | September 22-26 Hello traders, this week we zoom out to the weekly battlefield to see where gold really stands. Price has broken structure at 3480, pushing into premium territory and testing the top supply block. Let’s map the institutional zones step by step 👇
🔸 Weekly Structure
Trend: Strong bullish, confirmed by the Weekly BOS at 3480.
Price is now pressing inside the Premium Supply 3680–3730, a key resistance decision zone.
Below, the Mid Demand OB 3370–3300 is the origin of the last impulsive leg.
Further down, the Deep Demand OB 3000–3050 holds as the long-term structural base.
Dynamic EMA flow (5/21/50/100/200): locked bullish, with EMA21 and EMA50 guiding momentum.
RSI: stretched near overbought → signals the risk of corrective retracements from premium.
🔸 Named Zones
🟥 Premium Supply 3680–3730 → Current weekly resistance & decision point.
🟦 Mid Demand OB 3370–3300 → Structural demand zone from last bullish impulse.
🟦 Deep Demand OB 3000–3050 → Institutional long-term demand base.
🔸 Bullish Expansion Map (above 3730)
🔼 Magnet Zone 3800–3850 → first extension target (fib + liquidity cluster).
🔼 Expansion Zone 3920–3950 → next liquidity sweep region.
🔼 Psychological 4000 → ultimate round-number magnet if bullish momentum sustains.
🔸 Scenarios
Bullish Path: Break & close above 3730 → opens the road to 3800–3850, with possible extension toward 3920+.
Bearish Path: Rejection from Premium Supply → corrective move toward Mid Demand OB 3370–3300, with deeper liquidity grabs into 3050 if macro turns hawkish.
📌 Conclusion:
Weekly bias remains bullish after the 3480 BOS, but price is stretched inside premium. The 3680–3730 supply will decide: continuation into 3800+ or rejection back into 3370 demand.
✨ Do you see gold breaking above 3730 into new highs, or is this supply ready to reject? Share your thoughts below 👇 Don’t forget to like, follow, and comment to stay in tune with our daily precision maps 🚀
XAUUSD New ATH!!!The chart might seem to be very confusing, but try an focus on 2 things.
1. Redbox, which is indicating a sideways market
2. Price has perfectly retested on fib levels, which I have marked using an arrow.
On Friday's closing, the price has shown a huge move, and I am expecting a bullish move to continue because of price action and fundamental news. Later, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and although the Fed rate cut move trapped all the buyers and sellers, I am still expecting a bullish move on gold
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3692 and a gap below at 3673. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3692
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3692 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3717
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3717 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3742
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3742 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3768
BEARISH TARGETS
3673
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3673 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3650
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3650 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3622
3592
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3592 WILL OPEN THESECONDARY SWING RANGE
3556
3528
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3696 and a gap below at 3655. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3696
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3738
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3738 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3778
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3778 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3811
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3811 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3845
BEARISH TARGETS
3655
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3615
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3615 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3583
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3583 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3546
3509
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3509 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3458
3409
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPDaily Chart Update
3683 Target Achieved, Long-Range 3789 Opens
Great finish last week as we got the 3683 target hit following candle body and EMA5 lock above 3564. This clean breakout move confirms the strength of the bullish momentum and completes the next phase of our projected sequence.
We are now seeing candle body close above 3683, which has opened the long-range upside target at 3789. A sustained EMA5 lock above this zone will further confirm continuation strength.
For this momentum to remain healthy, we want to see the channel top act as support on any correction, establishing a solid base for the range expansion. A hold here would validate the breakout structure, while failure to maintain support risks fading back into the channel.
Current Outlook
🔹 3683 Target Reached
Projection played out with precision as the EMA5 lock above 3564 confirmed continuation, giving us the upside completion into 3683.
🔹 Next Objective – 3789
Price action now extends higher, with body closes above 3683 opening the door toward the 3789 target. EMA5 lock here will be the key confirmation for strength.
🔹 Channel Top Support Crucial
The channel top now flips into potential support. Holding above it will sustain the bullish breakout narrative, while any breakdown back below risks a fake-out.
Updated Key Levels
📉 Support – 3433 & 3564
📉 Deeper Support – 3272 (pivotal floor)
📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective – 3789
Thanks as always for your continued support,
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update
3659 Retested & Closed Above, 3732 Gap Opens
Last week we saw 3659 tested again, and this time we finished with a weekly candle body close above the level, officially opening the gap toward 3732. This marks a significant step in confirming continuation of the bullish sequence.
At the same time, we must note a detachment left below at 3576. Both 3659 and 3576 now act as correctional support zone levels to keep in mind should price pull back before continuation higher.
Current Outlook
🔹 3659 Retest & Close Above
The weekly body close above 3659 clears resistance and validates upside progression.
🔹 Long-Range Gap Toward 3732
With 3659 cleared, momentum now shifts focus to 3732 as the next upside objective. EMA5 lock confirmation here will further solidify strength.
🔹 Correctional Supports at 3659 & 3576
While the path to 3732 is open, 3659 and 3576 both serve as important levels of support. A healthy correction into these zones would help establish a strong base for continuation.
Updated Levels to Watch
📉 Supports – 3659 & 3576 (correction zones), deeper floor at 3482
📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective – 3732
Plan
The long-range gap above 3732 is now active. A continuation higher depends on holding recent breakout levels:
Thanks as always for your support,
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD Long: Path to $3715 After Successful RetestHello, traders! The price auction for XAUUSD has been developing within a well-defined upward wedge for some time. This bullish structure has guided the price higher through a series of higher highs and higher lows, with the demand zone 2 at 3575 acting as a key pivot point low for the formation, establishing the underlying uptrend.
Currently, the auction has reached a critical stage after a strong impulse resulted in a breakout above the key horizontal demand level at 3665. This move shows strong bullish initiative, but such breakouts are often followed by a retest to confirm their validity before the next major leg up.
My scenario for the development of events is based on this breakout being successful. I expect the price to make a corrective pullback to retest the broken 3665 demand level from above. In my opinion, if this former resistance holds as new support, it will be a strong confirmation of the bullish trend. This should trigger a continuation of the rally towards the upper resistance line of the wedge. The take-profit is therefore set at 3715, just below this upper boundary. Manage your risk.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Rise to All-Time High Confirmed
There is a high chance that Gold will continue rising next week,
following a completion of a correctional movement on a 4H time frame
with a confirmed bullish Change of Character CHoCH.
Odds are high, that the price will rise to 3707 level,
with a highly probable update of ATH.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD – The Decisive Zone and Trading ScenariosTechnical Analysis
Gold prices on the H4 chart are in a recovery phase after testing the 3.661–3.662 support. The latest candle has rebounded strongly to the 3.684 area, yet the structure still shows clear indecisiveness.
The upward trendline was breached in the previous decline, and currently, the price is retesting this area. This is a crucial point to determine whether the short-term uptrend will continue.
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) has formed around the 3.613–3.626 area, aligning with the Fibonacci extension, making it a point of interest for deeper pullbacks.
The Volume Profile indicates the main Point of Control (POC) lies lower, around 3.551, which is a potential target for gold to revisit if selling pressure increases.
The RSI (14) is at ~59, leaning towards buyers but not yet overbought → the current momentum is more of a recovery than a sustainable uptrend.
Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Buy following the short-term trend:
Entry: wait for a retest of 3.673–3.662
SL: below 3.655
TP1: 3.690–3.700
TP2: 3.708–3.715 (2.0–2.618 Fib extension)
Scenario 2 – Short sell after confirmed failure:
If the price fails to hold above 3.661 and there is a reversal signal on H4, consider selling.
Entry: 3.661–3.650 (after confirmation candle)
SL: above 3.673
TP1: 3.626–3.613 (FVG + support)
TP2: 3.579
TP3: 3.551 (POC Volume Profile)
Key Price Levels to Watch
3.708–3.715: extended resistance zone, Fib confluence, key target for buyers.
3.661–3.662: short-term support, boundary to determine the next trend.
3.613–3.626: FVG + intermediate support, a zone prone to reactions.
3.551: volume POC, deep target if the market breaks all support.
I will apply the long-term trading scenario in the new week, so give me a follow for motivation to write more!
Gold: Major New Option Portfolios Signal Strong Moves AheadFriday’s CME report showed a surge in large option blocks in gold — two of them stand out.
🔹 1. "Long Condor" on December Futures (GCZ24)
This is the most significant structure added:
Targets a move below $3,620 or above $3,780
In other words: a breakout is expected, not consolidation
📌 Key point:
A "Long Condor" profits from volatility, not direction.
It wins if price moves sharply — up OR down — but loses if it stays flat.
💡 My note:
When I first encountered delta-neutral strategies like this as a Forex trader — my brain exploded.
No directional bias… yet clearly positioned for action?
That was the moment I realized: options are a different game.
🔹 2. Bull Call Spread (Oct Series): $3800–$3850
Another key play:
A classic bullish call spread at 3800/3850
Target: upside beyond current levels
But here’s the difference:
Unlike the "Long Condor", this one needs a clear upward move — and soon. Within a few days.
This isn’t about volatility.
It’s a directional bet that gold will rise.
🧠 Bottom Line:
One portfolio says: "Breakout coming — no matter which way."
Another says: "Gold goes up — and soon."
Are they aligned?
Contradictory?
Or could both win?
Trade smarter, not harder! Looking to boost your profits with valuable market insights and data-driven entry points? Join us or keep moving!