Stop!Loss|Market View: EURUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the EURUSD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 1.15376
💰TP: 1.14037
⛔️SL: 1.16344
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💬 Description: The euro continues to be under pressure to sell this week. The USD index (DXY) is testing the area near 100 and is likely to move higher to 105-107, as noted earlier. EURUSD is already trading below 1.15500, but we're not seeing any strong downward momentum as expected. Even so, there is still pressure to sell, and the price is likely to go back to 1.15500. After that, it will likely head toward 1.14000.
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❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Gold
GOLD recovers slightly before ADP, pressure from Dollar and FEDIn the Asian trading session on Wednesday morning (November 5), spot OANDA:XAUUSD prices edged up around $3,938/ounce, after falling nearly 2% yesterday. The sharp correction reflected pressure from the US dollar, currently at a three-month high, along with the waiting for the ADP private employment data, which is considered an early indicator of the US labor market.
Tuesday's decline, which saw gold lose $69.52, equivalent to 1.74%, came amid money flowing out of gold and back into the greenback, while investors reassessed the monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The US government remains shut down, delaying many official economic data. As a result, the market has shifted its focus to private indicators, especially the ADP employment report for October, due out tonight. The US economy is estimated to have added just 25,000 jobs in the month, a low level that suggests a marked weakening in job growth.
Previously, September data showed the private sector lost 32,000 jobs, the sharpest decline since March 2023, contrary to expectations for an increase of 50,000. These signals reinforce the view that the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is coming to an end.
However, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at its December meeting has dropped to about 71%, compared with more than 90% last week, after Fed officials sent cautious signals. The dollar's recovery and stable bond yields have temporarily lost gold's advantage in the short term.
By its very nature, non-yielding gold tends to perform well in low interest rate and economic uncertainty environments. Therefore, the current correction is seen as a technical pause, as the market awaits clearer signals on Fed policy and the health of the US economy.
The medium-term outlook remains positive, but the near-term direction will depend on ADP employment data and interest rate expectations, two factors that are reshaping gold’s position in the new global policy cycle.
Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold price is hovering around $3,939/ounce, recording a slight recovery after hitting a short-term bottom near $3,930. The price action shows that gold is moving in a corrective downtrend channel, formed after a period of vertical increase from August to mid-October.
In terms of technical structure, the 0.382 Fibonacci zone at 3,972 USD ounce remains an important resistance level, while the 3,896 USD level (0.5 Fibo) acts as medium-term support. The MA21 average is currently around 4,055 USD, creating a dynamic barrier above, reflecting that the short-term downtrend is still dominant. The RSI indicator remains below 50, indicating that the market is still in a state of accumulation, lacking clear momentum.
Overall, the main trend of gold is still rebalancing after an impressive series of increases, with the possibility of fluctuating in a narrow range of 3,890 - 3,980 USD/ounce before there is a new breakout signal.
In the short term, gold is likely to continue to fluctuate within a consolidation range, waiting for new catalysts from US employment data and the Fed's interest rate orientation to determine the next direction.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4017 - 4015⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4021
→Take Profit 1 4009
↨
→Take Profit 2 4003
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3920 - 3922⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3916
→Take Profit 1 3928
↨
→Take Profit 2 3934
XAUUSD BUY OR SELL ?🎯 Entry Plan
Step 1 – Wait for Price to Reach Supply Zone
Don’t enter early. Wait until price comes into the highlighted supply area.
Step 2 – Look for Reversal Confirmation
Once price is inside the zone, look for lower timeframe confirmations (on 5m or 15m):
Break of structure (BoS) to the downside within the zone.
Rejection candles (like bearish engulfing, pin bar).
Liquidity grab above previous highs.
Step 3 – Entry
After confirmation, enter a short position when price breaks the internal structure downward (mini BoS).
This ensures you are entering after momentum shifts.
Step 4 – Stop Loss & Take Profit
Stop Loss (SL): Just above the supply zone (e.g., above 4,005).
Take Profit (TP):
First target: Previous low (around 3,930).
Extended target: 3,910 or lower depending on continuation.
XAU/USD – Price Fails to Hold Above ResistanceXAU/USD – Price Fails to Hold Above Resistance, Bearish Continuation Likely
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to show weakness after failing to sustain above the $3,975–$3,980 resistance zone. The price structure on the 1-hour timeframe indicates a series of lower highs, confirming the ongoing short-term bearish trend.
The recent recovery toward the neckline of the descending channel appears to be a technical retest before potential continuation to the downside. Sellers are currently defending the $3,975 area, which also aligns with a Fibonacci 50% retracement and previous liquidity sweep zone from early November.
A clean break below $3,915 support could trigger further declines toward $3,886 — the next major demand area and measured move target of the previous swing leg.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,975 – $3,980
Support: $3,915 / $3,886
Bias: Bearish below $3,975
Trading Plan:
Sell Setup: Watch for rejection candles around $3,975 → Target $3,915 / $3,886
Invalidation: A confirmed breakout above $3,980 may shift bias back to neutral
RSI remains capped below the midline, reflecting limited bullish momentum, while price continues to respect the descending trendline structure.
Until bulls reclaim the $3,980 zone decisively, the path of least resistance remains downward.
If you find this analysis insightful, follow for more daily gold strategies and institutional-level insights.
Waiting on the Sweep – ADP Should Provide the CatalystChoppy week so far with price distributing and grinding lower. Last week’s low still hasn’t been taken, so my macro target remains the same. I’m looking for ADP tomorrow during NY session to provide the volatility needed to run liquidity and complete that sweep.
Not predicting direction on the release itself — I’ll be waiting for a liquidity grab and displacement before considering an entry. If price runs stops above today’s Asia high or drives directly into last week’s low, I’ll be watching for the post-news retrace to an FVG/structural level to participate.
Patience here — the move is close, but confirmation > anticipation.
AUDUSD in a falling wedge: ready for a strong bullish breakoutThe AUDUSD chart looks particularly intriguing right now. Recently, the pair has taken on a new, more confident character, shaping into a structure that radiates optimism.
The latest market interaction is especially eye-catching; it reveals the first hints of a potential rebound, while the previous bearish momentum is slowly fading away. Low-volume candles suggest market exhaustion, often the calm before a fresh upward move.
My target stands around 0.65450. If this scenario unfolds, we could witness a stunning price evolution, almost like a dramatic scene building after weeks of anticipation.
The setup is both elegant and promising, a story being written in real time, one that demands patience and confirmation before revealing its full potential.
While a bearish scenario remains possible, given the solid support below, I continue to lean bullish. The current structure exudes confidence, balance, and the quiet strength of a market preparing to rise again.
Gold Bull Market Update and Outlook Q4 2025 / Q1 2026📌 Executive Summary
• Base case (60%): The current pullback is a normal retracement within the primary bull trend. We expect consolidation through late Q4-2025 and potentially into January 2026, followed by a resumption of the uptrend in Q1/Q2-2026.
• Drivers remain intact: Persistent central-bank accumulation, reserve-diversification dynamics, and episodic macro/geopolitical risk keep the structural bid under gold.
• Positioning stance: Maintain core long exposure, add tactically on weakness into the $3.8k–$4.0k zone spot equivalent with tight risk controls, and ladder call spreads into Q2-2026.
• Risk skew: Near-term pullback risk persists position shakeouts, macro data surprises. Structural bearish risks are low unless central-bank demand materially softens.
________________________________________
🧭 Market Context & Recent Price Action
• Gold printed successive record highs into mid-October; front-month futures traded above $4,170/oz before easing. Headlines framed the rally as policy and safe-haven led, with year-to-date gains exceptionally strong.
• Central-bank demand continues to underpin the move: WGC and sell-side coverage highlight accelerating official-sector buying and diversification away from FX reserves; banks forecast higher prices into 2026.
• The current setback aligns with prior bull-market pauses (e.g., Apr–Jul 2025 and Sep 2024–Dec 2024 pullbacks), consistent with the user-stated pattern of multi-month consolidations before trend resumption.
What’s new in headlines late Oct–Nov 2025:
• Pullback is “technical and temporary,” with buy-the-dip framing from UBS; next tactical target cited around $4,200.
• Official-sector flows: Korea & Madagascar exploring reserve increases; PBoC extended buying streak into September.
• WSJ coverage stresses gold’s role in erosion of trust in fiat/central banks and the reserve-diversification theme.
________________________________________
🔑 Structural Bull Case 2025-2026
1. Official-Sector Accumulation:
o Multi-year build in central-bank gold holdings (EM-led) as a sanctions-resilient reserve asset; this remains the single most important marginal buyer narrative.
2. Reserve Diversification & Financial Geopolitics:
o Evidence that gold’s share of global reserves has risen while some institutions reassess currency composition.
3. Macro Volatility & Policy Trajectory:
o Periodic growth scares, policy pivots, and real-rate uncertainty sustain hedging demand. Street targets for late-2026 (e.g., ~$4,900 GS) anchor upside convexity.
4. Market Microstructure:
o Thin above prior highs and crowded shorts on pullbacks can fuel sharp upside re-accelerations when macro catalysts hit data, geopolitics, policy hints.
________________________________________
📊 Technical Map Top-Down
• Primary trend: Up. The sequence of higher highs/higher lows since 2024 remains intact; current move is a trend-within-trend consolidation.
• Pullback anatomy: Prior bull pauses (Apr–Jul 2025; Sep–Dec 2024) lasted 2–4 months, with troughs forming on volatility compression and momentum washouts—a template for now.
• Key tactical zones spot-equiv.:
o $3,800–$4,000: First reload area prior breakout shelf / 50–61.8% of the last leg.
o $4,200–$4,250: First resistance / re-acceleration trigger retests of breakdown pivots.
o $4,350–$4,400: High congestion; decisive weekly close above here re-opens ATH extension.
________________________________________
🗓️ Scenario Pathing Q4-2025 → Q2-2026
• Base Case 60% — “Consolidate then resume”:
o Sideways-to-lower into late Q4/Jan 2026 as positioning resets; range $3.8k–$4.2k.
o Breakout resumption in Q1/Q2-2026 as macro and official flows re-assert.
• Bullish Extension 25% — “Shallow dip, quick reclaim”:
o Softer real yields / risk flare trigger swift recapture of $4.2k–$4.4k and new highs earlier in Q1-2026.
o Catalysts: heavier central-bank prints, geopolitical shock, or earlier policy-easing rhetoric.
• Bear-Risk 15% — “Deeper flush, trend intact”:
o Hawkish macro surprise or forced deleveraging drives $3.6k–$3.7k probes; structure holds unless official-sector demand meaningfully fades
________________________________________
🧪 What to Watch High-Signal Indicators
• Official-Sector Data: Monthly updates from WGC, IMF COFER clues, and PBoC reserve disclosures. Continuation of EM purchases = green light for the bull.
• Rates & Liquidity: Real-rate direction and dollar liquidity conditions around data and policy communications.
• Microstructure: CFTC positioning inflections, ETF out/in-flows a lagging but useful confirmation when they finally turn.
• Asia Physical/Policy: China/Japan retail and wholesale dynamics; policy/tax headlines can create short-term volatility.
________________________________________
🎯 Strategy & Implementation
1) Core:
• Maintain strategic long allocation consistent with mandate e.g., 3–5% risk budget; avoid pro-cyclical reductions during orderly pullbacks.
2) Tactical Adds
• Scale-in buy program within $3.8k–$4.0k
• Optionality: Buy Q2-2026 call spreads (e.g., 4.2/4.8) on dips; fund via selling Q1-2026 downside put spreads around $3.6k–$3.7k where comfortable with assignment.
3) Risk Controls 🛡️:
• Hard-stop any tactical adds on weekly close < ~$3.6k or if credible evidence emerges of official-sector demand reversal.
GOLD Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD Price has tapped into a strong horizontal demand area, showing early signs of bullish rejection. Buyers may aim toward 3,970$ as the next liquidity target.
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Stop Loss: 3,915$
Take Profit: 3,970$
Entry: 3,940$
Time Frame: 2H
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Buy!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT
Quick KOG Report this week.
Firstly, we would say it’s the first trading day of the new month so maybe an idea to let the market find it’s feet before jumping in. We’re only going to share the potential path this week and the red box target levels on the breaks. We’ll also stick with some of the red boxes from last week with the new levels to watch out for.
RED BOXES:
Break above 4010 for 4016, 4030, 4044 and 4050 in extension of the move
Break below 4001 for 3995, 3986, 3971 and 3959 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4042 and a gap below at 3992. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
4042
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4042 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
4089
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4089 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4136
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4136 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4194
BEARISH TARGETS
3992
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3992 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3956
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3956 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3922
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3922 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3866
3820
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Support and trend line coincide, pullback to buy.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
So far, gold has failed to break out of the converging triangle boundary to choose a clear trading direction, but as time goes on, the price is gradually approaching the end of the triangle, and the battle between bulls and bears may come to a critical decision during the NY session. Looking at the hourly chart, multiple attempts to break through the 4000 resistance level have failed, confirming the pressure above, and gold prices may see further pullback in the short term. The support zone below coincides with the upward trend line, which may be the key area for gold to test during a pullback. Therefore, continue to pay attention to the support level of 3970-3960. If the price retraces to the support level during the NY session and does not break down, you can try to go long on gold with a small position.
GBP/USD (British Pound vs US Dollar)..GBP/USD (British Pound vs US Dollar) chart on the 1-day timeframe, here’s a detailed target analysis based on my Ichimoku setup and support zones:
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🔍 Chart Overview
Current price: around 1.3044
Price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming bearish momentum.
The chart shows two downside target zones labeled “Target Point”.
The market is retesting a broken support area near 1.3050–1.3100, which now acts as resistance.
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🎯 Target Levels
First Target (Short-Term)
Zone: 1.2700 – 1.2750
This aligns with your first marked “Target Point”.
Represents the next key support zone and the measured move from the recent breakdown.
Expect the price to react here — possibly a temporary bounce or consolidation.
Second Target (Medium-Term)
Zone: 1.2350 – 1.2400
This is my lower “Target Point”, and a major support area from earlier this year (March–April zone).
If bearish pressure continues, price could extend to this level over coming weeks.
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📊 Trading Plan Summary
Direction Entry Zone Target 1 Target 2 Stop Loss
Sell (Short) 1.3050 – 1.3100 (after pullback) 1.2700 – 1.2750 1.2350 – 1.2400 Above 1.3200
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⚠ Notes
If GBP/USD reclaims 1.3200+ and closes back inside the Ichimoku cloud, bearish momentum weakens — switch to neutral or bullish outlook.
As long as price stays below the cloud and under 1.3100, downtrend continuation remains likely.
XAUUSD ONE MORE LEG DOWNSIDE🟡 Technical Overview: Gold (XAU/USD) 1-Hour Chart
This 1-Hour chart for Gold (XAU/USD) exhibits a clear shift from a short-term upward trend into a strong bearish impulse, followed by a minor corrective bounce.
The price action was characterized by an ascending channel/uptrend (marked by the blue parallel lines) which defined the market's structure. Crucially, the chart shows a decisive breakdown from the lower trendline of this channel, which occurred around the $3,980 level.
Following the breakdown, the price experienced an aggressive sell-off, dropping to a swing low around the $3,920 zone. This area, marked by a Horizontal Support Level (HS), successfully halted the immediate decline and initiated a modest corrective bounce.
📉 Analysis and Projection
The overall bias has shifted to bearish in the short term, due to the confirmed break of the prior uptrend structure. The current price action is interpreted as a bearish flag or consolidation phase following the sharp impulse move down.
Resistance (Key Bearish Zone): The most significant resistance is the prior uptrend's lower trendline, now acting as a ceiling for the price. This line intersects near the $3,980 - $3,990 area. A strong rejection from this zone would confirm the breakdown and the continuation of the downtrend. The $4,000 psychological level also sits just above this zone, providing further strong overhead resistance.
Support (Key Bullish Zone): The immediate support is the $3,920 Horizontal Support (HS). This level successfully stemmed the aggressive selling and is the critical line that buyers must defend.
Projection: The path of least resistance is to the downside. The high-probability scenario projects a move down from the current consolidation, breaking the $3,920 support. The next significant downside target would be the lower horizontal line marked on the chart, around $3,880 - $3,900, which would fill the most recent move's potential extension.
Alternative Scenario: A confirmed move and hourly close above the $4,000 psychological and former trendline resistance would invalidate the short-term bearish bias, suggesting a potential re-test of the recent swing high.
The technical indications strongly favor a continuation of the bearish move, with the $3,980 - $4,000 zone serving as the critical pivot for the next move.






















