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Gold Futures (MGCZ2025) — Weekly FVG Magnet & Potential ReversalPrice has been respecting Standard Deviation levels beautifully across the H4, Daily, and Weekly timeframes. The market recently rejected the H4 FVG and is now hovering mid-range, with a Weekly Fair Value Gap left open below. This imbalance could attract price early in the week, creating a liquidity grab and possible weekly low before Gold flips bullish again. Key Levels: 🟤 H4 FVG rejection zone: 4,040 – 4,080 🔵 Weekly FVG target: 3,880 – 3,900 ⚫ Weekly High: 4,124 ⚫ Weekly Low: 3,901 Narrative: I’m expecting price to push into the Weekly FVG discount zone early in the week — potentially aligning with high-impact financial news — and then reverse bullish for a mid-week or end-of-week rally. Watch For: Price displacement or BOS near the Weekly FVG Killzone reactions (London & NY) Volume and order flow confirmation before entering Bias: Short-term bearish → medium-term bullish Invalidation: Sustained trade below 3,842 (Weekly Lows & -1σ zone breach)
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
Gold’s Pullback Is a Trap for the UnpreparedGold is not collapsing. It is consolidating after a historic surge, and the evidence across timeframes shows this dip is a high probability buying opportunity. Traders focused only on the short term are missing the bigger picture because the monthly and weekly charts reveal a powerful bull trend still intact. The monthly timeframe tells the dominant story. Gold closed October at 3858.45, near its all time high of 4381.44, with the 1M RSI 7 at 95.44 and 1M ADX 14 at 63.15—confirming an extremely strong uptrend. The MACD histogram remains positive at 81.78, and price is trading well above all major monthly moving averages, including the 1M SMA 200 at 1592.71. This is not a market ready to reverse. It is a market pausing to digest gains before its next leg up. On the weekly chart, the structure remains bullish. Price pulled back from 4381.44 to test the 3886.47 low, which aligns with the 1W SMA 10 at 3776.44 and the lower Bollinger Band at 2991.35—still far below current levels. The weekly ADX 14 is 53.91, signaling a strong trend, and the MACD histogram is still positive at 59.92. Even though the weekly RSI is overbought, that is normal in strong bull markets and does not signal an imminent reversal. Now look at the daily chart. Price is at 4002.81, below the 1D SMA 10 (4096.48) and 1D SMA 20 (4080.89), creating short term bearish pressure. The daily MACD histogram is negative at –41.99, and RSI 14 is neutral at 52.48, suggesting temporary weakness. But crucially, price is holding above the daily pivot at 3989.09 and the 1D SMA 50 at 3808.41—a major support zone. The 3950.95 S1 pivot and 3877.38 S2 level offer clear downside buffers. The 4 hour chart shows early signs of stabilization. Price is trading above the 4H SMA 20 (3982.52) and the MACD histogram has turned positive at 8.49, hinting at short term momentum building to the upside. Short term, gold could test 3950 over the next 5 to 10 days as bears push for a deeper retracement. But the higher probability outcome is a bounce from this zone toward 4100, supported by 4H momentum and daily support alignment. Medium term, within 4 to 8 weeks, gold is likely to reclaim 4250 and challenge the all time high near 4380. This aligns with the upper weekly Bollinger Band at 4140.24 expanding upward and sustained volume on up weeks. Long term, by the end of Q1 2026, gold is positioned to reach 4700, based on the monthly R3 pivot at 4442.75 and the continuation of the primary bull trend confirmed by monthly ADX and MACD strength. This pullback is not weakness. It is the market separating disciplined trend followers from emotional sellers. The technicals across timeframes confirm one truth: gold’s bull run is far from over.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by zaferyardimci1
GOLD: Bullish! Continue To Buy! The +FVG Is Holding!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Nov. 3 - 7th. Gold has completed the pullback into the Weekly +FVG. It has moved sideways since, but inching higher. Buys are valid. They have the highest probability. Sells become valid only after a bearish break of market structure! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
XAUUSD Acceptance Rule at 4 000 - Map for 3-7 Nov 2025Context, in plain language Gold finished Friday near 3 998.4 on my feed and sits right on the round 4 000 pivot. October was a runaway month with fresh records. In the final week of this rally phase the market will test whether price can live above four thousand or if it needs another breath. The plan below keeps things simple. I work from one decision line, a short event ladder, and a fixed risk template. Education only. Why four thousand matters Round numbers concentrate liquidity. They create noise on the first touch then clarity on the second. At four thousand you will see stop runs in both directions and you will see fast fades. The edge comes from trading acceptance rather than touch. Acceptance for me means two closes on the execution timeframe above or below the line. I use four hour for structure and fifteen minute for triggers. If you prefer one hour or five minute, keep the logic exactly the same and do not chase the first spike. What can move price this week It is a data led week. Monday brings ISM Manufacturing. Tuesday brings JOLTS. Wednesday brings ADP in the early morning and ISM Services late morning. Friday is the Employment Situation. The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate last week and said future steps depend on incoming data, so these releases are live for gold. I treat Monday as tone setting, Wednesday as positioning, and Friday as the weekly verdict. Times are Eastern. If you trade from Europe, align your session planning the night before. Levels to work with if Friday’s close is your anchor Immediate map • 4 000 is the decision line. • 4 050 to 4 060 is the first upside gate from the early October stall area. • 4 100 opens if services data or jobs come in soft and real yields ease. • 3 950 to 3 920 is first support on pullbacks where late sellers often get trapped. • 3 880 to 3 800 is the larger retest zone from the September breakout. I draw one bold line at 4 000. I shade two narrow boxes at 4 050 to 4 060 and 3 950 to 3 920. I leave the wider retest box lighter at 3 880 to 3 800. No extra overlays. No spaghetti. The clarity helps when the tape speeds up. How I will trade it Before New York I check two things. The dollar index trend. The ten year real yield tone. If both rise together I will be patient with longs and I will only buy strength that proves acceptance over four thousand with time. If both slip together I will allow a second test long that holds above four thousand and I will target the first gate at 4 050 to 4 060. If the event hits and the first move rips through four thousand I do nothing. I wait for the pause. The second test is the trade. Triggers Long idea • Event passes and the second test holds above 4 000 with two closes on fifteen minute. • Dollar fails to make a higher high on the hour. • Target 4 050 to 4 060 first, then trail toward 4 100 only if the day opens up. • Invalidation below 3 980 on a five minute close or a clear failure back inside the pre release range. Short idea • Clean rejection of 4 000 after the event. • Dollar and real yields bid together. • Target 3 950 to 3 920 first. Leave room for 3 880 only if the day does not bounce. • Invalidation above 4 020 on a five minute close. Risk template I size so that a normal day’s pullback does not force me out. A simple rule is to keep per trade risk inside one third of the five day ATR. I place stops beyond the opposite edge of the zone I am trading. I never move a stop closer because the candle looks scary. I take partials into the first gate only when the day’s range is already near the expected move for that session. If spreads widen during the release I stand aside for five minutes. This alone will save you from many avoidable losses. Common traps to avoid Do not trade the first touch at four thousand. The tape loves to run stops there. Do not fade a break that holds for thirty minutes above the decision line. The whole edge is acceptance. Do not add size in front of Friday’s Employment Situation. This report resets everything. Finally do not forget that gold can gap through levels on macro surprises. The way to survive that is small size, predefined exits, and a plan to do nothing if liquidity is thin. Event ladder for the week Monday. ISM Manufacturing sets the opening tone. Tuesday. JOLTS shapes labor cooling views. Wednesday. ADP and ISM Services drive pre positioning into Friday. Friday. Employment Situation at the open. I go reactive only after the first five minutes settle. How to set up your chart Timeframe four hour for structure. Timeframe fifteen minute for triggers. Draw a single line at 4 000. Shade the two narrow zones at 4 050 to 4 060 and 3 950 to 3 920. Add a lighter box at 3 880 to 3 800. Nothing else. If you must watch the dollar, keep it on a separate chart. The goal is to make the decision obvious when the release hits. Three rule bullets that define the model • Trade acceptance, not touch, at 4 000. Wait for two closes to confirm. • Use the event ladder to scale risk. Light early. Normal only after the day’s release. • Place invalidation beyond the opposite band of the zone you are trading. Education and analytics only. No investment advice.
FX:XAUUSD
by exlux
GC Higher or Lower?Looking at GC on the 4 hour TF, we see it consolidating in a small rising wedge. If price wants to continue higher, I will be looking for price to drop back down to the $3980s level and then move higher breaking out of the wedge. If price wants to continue lower, I will be looking for price to make its way up to the 38.2% Fibonacci level marked on the chart, around $4090s, before breaking back down and creating another leg down in its recent downtrend. What are your thoughts on GC?
COMEX:GC1!
by TheTrendInspector
Is the Gold Bull Market Over? Gold has had a double digit correction form the all time high. Pulling back just over 11% is very healthy if the bull market trend is to resume. On an intra day 4 hour time frame gold is still looking very weak. However the weekly pattern was able to hold a key weekly bullish level. Gold is at a very tricky inflection point so i would personally wait until you get some key breakout or breakdown signals. Look towards your miners to see if they are gaining additional liquidity. They will often lead.
TVC:DXY
by Trading-Capital
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 03 - Nov 07]This week, global OANDA:XAUUSD prices recorded their second consecutive weekly decline. Spot gold started the week at $4,104/oz, dropped to $3,886/oz at one point, and then recovered to around $4,000/oz. In the coming week, gold prices may move sideways with no clear trend, requiring more time for accumulation. If the price trades above the 4,045 resistance level, it may recover to 4,150, and a break above this level could push it toward 4,250. However, if the price falls below 3,900, there is a risk of a sell-off, potentially dragging it down to around 3,750. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,750 – 3,900 USD Resistance: 4,045 – 4,150 – 4,250 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4151 - 4149⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4155 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3899 - 3901⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3895
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Gold Trend Analysis 4-Hour Time Frame Hi Traders The analysis for this week is ideal for me according to this flash move. Since the daily candlestick closed as a doji and indecisive, we mark the high and low range of this daily candlestick and refer to the 15-minute time frame. Depending on whether the high or low breaks or breaks out, we enter the trade. Considering the liquidity of 4050 and the remaining orders, the balance of 15 minutes, one hour and 4 hours, which are important numbers 4062, 4075 and 4090, the upward movement can be considered initially to hunt liquidity and attract orders in these ranges, and then continue the price correction until we have liquidities at the bottom of the price, including 3915 and 3886 ... Good luck
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by kinshinreza
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4079 and a gap below at 3985. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 4079 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4079 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 4173 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4173 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 4264 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4264 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 4340 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 4422 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4422 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 4494 BEARISH TARGETS 3985 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3985 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3873 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3873 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3741 3632 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis for Next Week Here is my structure analysis for Gold for next week. Support 1: 3868 - 3927 area Support 2: 3766 - 3830 area Support 3: 3690 - 3736 area Resistance 1: 4023 - 4109 area Resistance 2: 4187 - 4245 area Resistance 3: 4357 - 4383 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
1
XAU USD - Corrective wave ABC?Updte to previous post. Still long, awaiting the corrective structure to occur - firstly to break and hold under $4000 (key level). Downward channel - to $3800 which is another area of interest - reason being, it holds high volume at a structure point under $3800. So, we sit tight and await the corrective pattern to emerge and complete. Daily chart image shows my thought pattern and an opportunity I am waiting for price to revert to. I'm referring to the Daily price chart and key counts are in line with Wave counting and supply and demand curve trading levels based on fair value gap intervals of weekly trading sessions plotted to a daily chart at intervals of 60. Current wave - 3 of 5 in the Elliott wave count. Experiencing ABC corrective structure. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LupaCapital
Gold: Technicals vs. Fundamentals as Prices DipGold is currently facing significant downward pressure, recently touching its lowest point since early October and dipping below the $4,000 mark. This bearish sentiment is largely fueled by two key factors: cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding policy easing, and a noticeable de-escalation in the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China. As traders, we're now watching for the next catalyst. Upcoming macroeconomic data from the US, coupled with further commentary from Fed officials, will be critical in shaping Gold's near-term valuation. The December Rate Cut: Not a Done Deal While the market has been pricing in potential rate cuts, it's important to remember that a cut in December is not yet a certainty. This ambiguity is keeping buyers on the sidelines and adding to the metal's weakness. A Look at the Charts (Technical View) From a technical perspective, Gold is at a critical juncture. The key breakout level to watch is the $4050 - $4060 area. The Bullish Case: If Gold can decisively break above this $4050/$4060 resistance, it would open the door for a test of the next significant level, around $4150 / $4160. The Bearish Case: However, until Gold can firmly establish itself and stabilize above the $4150/$4160 zone, the risk of a deeper correction remains very high till $3700 We are observing a recurring pattern: Gold is repeatedly failing at immediate trendline resistance levels. In technical trading, this is often a classic sign that the market is weak and may be poised for a further decline, assuming there are no major fundamental surprises. Trading Strategy: Patience is Key For those of us looking to enter long-term buy positions, a two-pronged approach is necessary: Fundamental Watch: Keep a close eye on fundamental developments. Specifically, any new updates regarding US-China tariffs or shifts in the Federal Reserve's tone on interest rates will be major market movers. Technical Confirmation: Patience is required. We must wait for a confirmed technical breakout above the $4150 / $4160 area. Until this happens, the bearish pressure is likely to continue. Otherwise, gold still have bigger chances to test $3700 before it rise again.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Gold_Trading_Expert
XAUUSD: Correction Phase Aiming Toward 3,900 SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup. Market Analysis Gold (XAUUSD) has shifted from a strong bullish phase into a clear bearish structure after failing to sustain momentum above the 4,130 Resistance Zone. The market initially traded within an Upward Channel, forming a steady series of higher highs and higher lows until buyers lost strength near the top of the range. A breakout from the channel confirmed the end of the bullish impulse, followed by a range formation and multiple fake breakouts, indicating indecision and growing selling pressure. Eventually, the market broke below the range, retested the resistance area, and established a Downward Channel, showing that sellers have regained control. Currently, Gold is moving within this descending structure, respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. The Resistance Zone around 4,130 has once again acted as a strong supply area, rejecting price and pushing it lower toward the Support Zone near 3,900. My Scenario & Strategy From my perspective, XAUUSD is likely to continue its short-term bearish correction toward the 3,900 support level, which aligns with the lower boundary of the channel. A successful test of this area could trigger a short-term reaction or even a potential reversal if buyers step in. As long as price remains below the Resistance Zone (4,130) and within the Downward Channel, the bearish sentiment remains dominant. A confirmed breakdown below 3,900 could open the door for a deeper move toward the 3,850–3,820 zone. For now, I remain bearish in the short term, looking for short opportunities from the upper channel resistance with a primary target at 3,900. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ratner
9
Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🔥 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — BY PROJECTSYNDICATE 🏆 High/Close: $4,108 → ~$4,002 — sellers defended overhead; weekly close soft within range. 📈 Trend: Neutral / correction mode still ON; not expecting new highs near term. 🛡 Supports: $3,890 → $3,800 — pivotal shelves for downside containment. 🚧 Resistances: $4,052 / $4,175 — magnet zones for supply / fade attempts. 🧭 Bias next week: Prefer short sells into $4,052–$4,175 with take-profit toward $3,890 → $3,800. Invalidation on sustained reclaim > $4,175; failure of $3,800 risks extension lower. 🌍 Macro tailwinds/headwinds : • Rates: Real yields stable-to-firm keep upside contained; any dovish surprise could spark squeezes into resistance. • FX: DXY mixed—lack of broad USD weakness limits impulse follow-through. • Flows: CB/ETF demand supportive on deep dips but tepid near highs. • Geopolitics: Event risk provides intermittent bids; not a trend driver this week. 🎯 Street view: Medium-term bullish narratives reserve diversification, policy easing into 2026 remain, but near-term tape favors mean-reversion lower under resistance. ________________________________________ 🔝 Key Resistance Zones • $4,052 — immediate ceiling; prior supply pivot likely to cap first tests • $4,175 — upper resistance; acceptance above flips tone from corrective to constructive 🛡 Support Zones • $3,890 — first defense; loss invites momentum probes • $3,800 — critical structural base; break risks downside acceleration ________________________________________ ⚖️ Base Case Scenario Range-to-soft trade within $3,800–$4,175. Rallies into $4,052–$4,175 are sellable; expect rotations back toward $3,890 with scope to $3,800 if sellers press. 🚀 Breakout Trigger Only a sustained acceptance > ~$4,175 negates the correction and opens $4,200+ pathing; conversely, firm rejection at $4,052 with a daily close < $3,890 increases odds of a $3,800 test. 💡 Market Drivers • Fed path & real-yield drift • USD index swings • ETF/CB flow tone on dips vs. rips • Risk sentiment headlines (geopolitics/trade) 🔓 Bull / Bear Trigger Lines • Bullish above: $4,175 correction phase likely over if held • Bearish below: $3,890 → risk expands under $3,800 🧭 Strategy Short-sell from overhead resistances ($4,052 → $4,175). Scale profits into $3,890 then $3,800; keep stops tight above trigger levels. Stand aside on fresh longs until sustained reclaim above $4,175 reasserts momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
45
If $GOLD is at its peak, is $BTC next?Gold has been rejected at the 0.618 level of the Fibonacci channel on the 3M chart. The Stoch RSI demonstrates a striking similarity to past cycles: The bullish structure, which continued in the overbought region in October 2010, peaked 273 days later in July 2011. Momentum, which continued in the overbought region again in October 2019, reached its peak 365 days later in October 2020. Today, history paints a similar picture once again. The bullish structure, which began in the overbought region in October 2024, may have reached its peak approximately one year later, in October 2025, just as in previous cycles. Gold appears to be completing its historical rhythm once again. Note: The Bitcoin / Gold pair is developing in the opposite direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EtherNasyonaL
Wall Street Weekly Outlook - Week 45 2025 [03.11.- 07.11.2025]Wall Street Weekly Outlook - Week 45 2025 📅 November 3 – November 7, 2025 Let’s kick off an exciting new trading week — and a brand-new trading month! 🚀 Seasonal factors often play a major role in November and December, and I’ll break them down for you in this week’s video. 🎥📈 Sit back, enjoy the overview, and dive into the world of banks, hedge funds, and institutional flows — with exclusive insights into how the pros are positioned right now. 🧠💼📊 💡 Bonus segments: Strategies, setups & market psychology — everything you need to know for the week ahead. ⚡️ 📘 Topics covered in this week’s outlook: 🏛 Seasonality in the Nasdaq: 🥇 Seasonality in Gold: ... and many more charts & concepts in the video! 🎬📊 💬 I’m looking forward to your questions, comments, and an active discussion here on TradingView! 👋 Best, Meikel
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WSICapital
24
GOLD → Consolidation. The fundamental backdrop is changing...FX:XAUUSD stabilizes after a week-long decline, failing to consolidate above $4050. The market is taking a pause before new impulses. Focus on 4030 and 3980... Investors are closing positions before the end of the week and month, the reason being the uncertainty surrounding the deal with China and Powell's less dovish stance on policy: a 25 bp rate cut is already priced in. The probability of a December cut has fallen to 72.8% (from 91.1% a week ago). Powell emphasized that decisions depend on data, which is not available due to the shutdown. The strong dollar (2-month highs) is putting pressure on gold. Weak data from China (PMI fell to 49.0) is reducing demand from the largest consumer. The balance is tipping towards weak fundamentals... Resistance levels: 4030, 4085 Support levels: 3982, 3955, 3915 Technically, bears are keeping the market below 4030 - strong resistance. If buyers enter the market (there are currently no fundamental reasons for this) and the bulls are able to break through 4030 and keep the price above this level, we will have a chance for growth. But under the current circumstances, I expect a correction to support before a possible rise. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
13
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: INTRADAY & SWING TRADING🔍 XAUUSD GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: COMPREHENSIVE DEEP DIVE FOR INTRADAY & SWING TRADING (NOV 3-7, 2025) 📊 Close Price Level: 4,003.18 USD (As of Nov 1, 2025 - 12:54 AM UTC+4) 💰 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 WEEKLY TIMEFRAME (1W) - MACRO PERSPECTIVE The weekly chart reveals a strong bullish trend with gold trading decisively above its 21-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-EMA support levels. Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the price above the cloud, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands are expanding in the upper region, suggesting strong uptrend continuation. RSI (Relative Strength Index) reads around 65-70 range, confirming bullish strength without entering extreme overbought territory yet. Support levels: 3,980 | Resistance: 4,020-4,050 💪 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 DAILY TIMEFRAME (1D) - TREND DIRECTION Daily analysis shows a solid uptrend structure with higher highs and higher lows formation—classic Dow Theory confirmation. The price is consolidating near the upper zone between 4,000-4,010. Harmonic Pattern Recognition: Potential Gartley pattern forming with precise ratios at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) sits at approximately 3,995, providing dynamic support. Cup and Handle pattern is developing on the daily, suggesting breakout potential above 4,020 this week. Volume profile shows institutional accumulation during dips. 📍 Key Levels - Daily: Support 3,975 | Midpoint 3,990 | Resistance 4,025 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⏱️ 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME (4H) - SWING TRADE FRAMEWORK The 4H chart is the primary swing trading timeframe . Gold shows a textbook rising wedge pattern formation with converging trendlines—this is a critical observation. Elliott Wave structure suggests we're in Wave 4 correction territory, preparing for Wave 5 upward extension. Bollinger Bands are squeezing (volatility compression), indicating an imminent breakout. RSI at 55-60 shows balanced momentum with room for bullish push. IMPORTANT: Watch the 4H support at 3,998 . A break below creates a bear trap opportunity. Alternatively, a breakout above 4,015 confirms wave 5 initiation. Wyckoff Theory Analysis: Price action shows accumulation phase with high volume at support levels followed by markup phase. Volume trend is constructive. Exponential MA Cross: 20-EMA above 50-EMA = bullish setup locked in. 🎯 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME (1H) - INTRADAY TRADING Hourly timeframe reveals multiple reversal signals emerging. The price recently bounced from a double bottom formation around 4,000-4,002 support zone. Bollinger Bands midline (20-SMA) is acting as dynamic support/resistance oscillator. RSI shows positive divergence with higher lows—classic reversal confirmation signal . Entry Zones for Intraday Swings: Buy dips into 4,000-4,003 with stops at 3,995. Target 4,015 for quick 15-20 pips profit-taking. Ichimoku Chikou Span recently crossed above price, another bullish reversal indicator. Volume on recent upswings shows institutional participation. ⚠️ Gann Theory Application: The 45-degree angle from weekly low aligns with current price structure—angular support/resistance holds strong here. 📐 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔔 30-MINUTE TIMEFRAME (30M) - SCALP TO SWING BRIDGE The 30M shows short-term consolidation with bearish pennant formation —noting this is a correction pattern within the larger uptrend. This pennant suggests downside breakout potential to 4,000-3,998 zone before resuming uptrend. Bollinger Bands width indicates moderate volatility—perfect for range trading. RSI at 45-50 shows neutral zone , neither overbought nor oversold. Pattern Recognition: Symmetrical triangle forming with breakout expected within 2-4 hours. Volume declining into consolidation—classic pre-breakout setup. VWAP at 3,992 provides secondary support if pennant breaks downward. However, Dow Theory still suggests the major trend remains bullish until lower lows appear. 🎪 Trading Range: 3,998-4,008 for scalpers this session. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚙️ 15-MINUTE TIMEFRAME (15M) - MICRO STRUCTURE The 15M reveals highest volatility compression of all timeframes. This is the most dangerous zone for breakout traders. Bollinger Bands pinched to tightest range—explosion imminent. RSI bouncing between 40-60 shows indecision . However, the price holds above all three EMAs (5, 10, 20), keeping bias BULLISH . Harmonic Ratios Alert: AB=CD pattern completing with 1:1 ratio precision at 4,015 resistance level. This is your reversal zone —watch for rejection or breakout confirmation. VWAP showing gradual upward slope, slight bullish edge. Volume oscillator trending higher despite price consolidation. 📈 Microstructure Trade Setup: Break above 4,010 = BUY SIGNAL with target 4,018-4,022 🚀 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡⚡ 5-MINUTE TIMEFRAME (5M) - ULTRA-INTRADAY The 5M is showing inverse head and shoulders pattern —classic bullish reversal setup on ultra-short timeframe. Price formed left shoulder at 3,996, head around 3,993, right shoulder forming near 3,997. Neckline resistance at 4,002 = breakout target. Bollinger Bands in expansion mode with bullish candles forming. RSI already recovering above 50—momentum turning positive. ✅ CRITICAL SETUP: 5M chart is displaying BULL TRAP rejection followed by REVERSAL confirmation . This is your intraday traders' goldmine setup. Volume surging on recent candles—institutional buyers stepping in. Ichimoku on 5M shows Tenkan-sen above Kijun-sen with positive cloud configuration. Exponential MAs all aligned bullish (5 > 10 > 20 > 50). This is textbook bullish alignment . 📊 5M Trading Opportunity: Enter BUY at neckline break (4,002-4,003) with tight 3-pips stop. Target 4,008-4,012 for quick scalp profits. ⭐ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📋 CONSOLIDATED TRADING STRATEGY FOR NOV 3-7, 2025 INTRADAY SCALP TRADERS (5M-15M): Focus on breaks above 4,010 with tight stops. Target quick 10-20 pips. Avoid trading below 4,000 support—risk/reward becomes unfavorable. SWING TRADERS (1H-4H): Key decision point at 4,020 breakout level. If confirmed on 4H close, next target 4,050-4,075 range. Stop loss at 3,995 (weekly support). Holding period: 3-5 days. POSITION TRADERS (1D-1W): Cup and Handle breakout completion expected. Once 4,020 breaks, potential move to 4,100+ within 2-3 weeks. This is accumulation phase completion. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT & VOLATILITY CONSIDERATIONS Bollinger Bands volatility expanding = expect larger candle swings. Set wider stops accordingly. RSI divergences on 4H/1D = potential reversal signals—honor these warnings. Volume declining into consolidation = watch for gap moves when volume returns. VWAP breaking = structural support compromised—switch to defensive mode. Ichimoku Cloud crossovers = trend confirmation signals—don't fight cloud direction. Maximum Leverage Recommendation: 1:5 ratio on this setup. Gold volatility demands respect. 💡 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 KEY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK CRITICAL SUPPORT ZONES: 3,975 (Weekly) | 3,990 (Daily VWAP) | 3,995-4,000 (Primary Short-term) | 4,003 (Current Price) CRITICAL RESISTANCE ZONES: 4,010-4,015 (1H Swing High) | 4,020 (Daily Breakout Level) | 4,035 (Weekly Resistance) | 4,050 (Major Target) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 HARMONIC & GANN PATTERN SUMMARY Gartley Pattern (Daily): 0.618 retracement zone provides precision entry signals. Formation suggests completion wave incoming. Gann Angles (4H): 45-degree support holding strong. Fan angles predict next resistance at 4,018-4,020. Cup & Handle (1D): Breakout above handle resistance = confirmed. Target = height of cup (minimum 50 pips move = 4,050+). Inverse Head & Shoulders (5M): Neckline at 4,002 is your battleground. Institutional accumulation visible. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔮 PROBABILITY WEIGHTED FORECAST (NOV 3-7) BULLISH SCENARIO (70% Probability): Breakout above 4,020 mid-week, targeting 4,050-4,075 by Friday close. Volume confirmation required. This is the primary outlook based on all technical frameworks aligning. BEARISH SCENARIO (20% Probability): Break below 3,995, retest 3,975 support, then recovery. This would create bear trap setup for aggressive buyers. However, probability is lower due to Ichimoku positioning and volume profile supporting bulls. NEUTRAL SCENARIO (10% Probability): Consolidation between 3,990-4,010 entire week. Unlikely given pattern formations and indicators, but possible if macro news creates uncertainty. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 TRADER CHECKLIST FOR THIS WEEK ✅ BEFORE TRADING: Review daily support/resistance levels | Check Ichimoku Cloud positioning | Confirm RSI alignment | Verify VWAP slope direction | Scan for volume profile changes ✅ DURING TRADES: Monitor 4H breakout confirmations | Watch for Bollinger Band extensions | Track volume participation | Honor Elliott Wave count updates | Use Gann angles as dynamic stops ✅ EXIT STRATEGY: Take 50% profit at first target (4,015) | Move stops to breakeven at +10 pips | Trail remaining position to 4,050 | Use Ichimoku cloud breaks as hard stops ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌟 CONCLUSION: WHY THIS SETUP IS COMPELLING The convergence of Elliott Wave Wave 5 setup, Harmonic Gartley completion, Cup & Handle breakout pattern, and synchronized bullish Ichimoku Cloud positioning creates a POWERFUL BULLISH CASE for XAUUSD this week. Bollinger Bands expansion, RSI positive divergences, and Dow Theory higher highs confirmation provide MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CONFIRMATION . Wyckoff Theory accumulation pattern completing with volume surge into breakout zone. The primary action this week: Watch 4,020 breakout on 4H timeframe. Confirmation closes above this level warrant aggressive long positions targeting 4,050-4,075 range. Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.5 (EXCELLENT for swing trades) | Win Rate: 70% based on pattern probability | Holding Period: 3-5 days maximum 🚀 TRADE SETUP RATING: 9/10 - HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR SWING TRADERS 🎖️ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on technical patterns and indicators as of November 1, 2025. Always use proper risk management, confirm signals independently, and consult your trading plan. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya