XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) — expecting a retracement into a demand/Fibonacci zone before a continuation to the upside toward the target at 4,030.68.
Here’s the detailed breakdown
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Overall Idea
The analysis suggests a pullback-entry buy scenario, where Gold is expected to retrace to a key Fibonacci confluence + trendline support zone, then resume the uptrend toward 4,030.
This setup fits the Smart Money Concept (SMC) and market structure shift logic — from bearish to bullish.
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Key Components
1. Market Structure Shift
Price broke above the descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
The pullback is seen as a retest of the breakout zone, which often becomes a new support area.
The overall expectation is for a higher-low formation, leading to continuation upward.
2. Fibonacci Retracement Zone
The 0.5–0.79 retracement area (highlighted blue box) is the ideal buy zone.
Price is expected to tap into this area before continuing higher.
The 0.705 Fibonacci level aligns with the previous structure and EMAs, adding confluence.
3. EMA Confluence
50 EMA (3,986.37) and 200 EMA (4,007.71) are key dynamic levels.
Price is retesting around the 50 EMA, which supports the idea of a bullish continuation if respected.
Once price breaks above the 200 EMA, momentum confirmation strengthens.
4. Projected Path
The expected pattern:
➤ Pullback into 0.62–0.79 zone →
➤ Formation of a higher low →
➤ Impulsive move toward 4,030.68 target point.
The projected move aligns with structure and Fibonacci extension.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary
Market bias: Bullish
Setup type: Retracement buy / Trend continuation
Entry zone: 3,975–3,985 (Fibonacci 0.62–0.79 area)
Target point: 4,030.68
Confirmation: Bullish rejection from zone or structure break above 4,000
Invalidation: Break below 3,960 (previous swing low)
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