How to Use Fibonacci Levels in Gold Trading. Best Ratios For XAU
I will teach you a simple but efficient way of using Fibonacci levels for Gold analysis.
You will learn the strongest Fib.retracement levels and a proven strategy for XAUUSD trading.
First, let me show you the most powerful Fibonacci retracement levels that you should use for trading Gold.
The most significant ones are: 382, 50, 618, 786.
To use these Fib.Retracement levels properly, you will need to find the strongest 3 impulse legs.
Please, note that you can execute Fibonacci analysis of Gold on any time frame, for the sake of the example, we will do that on a daily.
Here are 3 impulses that I found.
I was simply trying to identify the price waves with the strongest impact. I underlined them from their lows to their highs.
We will draw Fibonacci Retracement levels based on these 3 movements.
We plot Fib.Retracement of a bullish impulse from its low to its high.
We plot Fib.Retracement of a bearish impulse from its high to its low.
That is how it looks.
After that we will need to find a confluence - zones or levels where Fib.Retracement levels of different impulses match .
Such zones will be significant liquidity clusters where market participants will place huge volumes of trading orders.
The first 2 confluence zones that I spotted on a Gold chart will be specific. They are based on 1 and 0 Fib.Retracement levels that match.
These 2 areas are both completion and starting points of our impulse legs.
The fact that significant price movements completed and started after tests of these zones indicates their significance .
Confluence zones 3/4/5/6 are based on a convergence of at least 2 Fib.Retracement levels of different impulses.
Probabilities will be high that these zones will attract the market liquidity.
After we found all confluence zones, I recommend removing Fibonacci levels from the chart to keep it clean .
That is how our complete Fib.Analysis will look.
From these zones, we will look for trading opportunities.
The areas that are above current price levels will be significant supply areas , and we will look for sell signals from them.
The zones that are below Gold spot price will be demand areas. Chances will be high that a strong buying reaction will follow after their test.
Confluence zones that we spotted on Gold chart provide unique perspective. Integrating them in your XAUUSD analysis, you will increase the accuracy of your predictions and trading decisions.
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Gold
GOLD: Bullish Continuation & Long Signal
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy GOLD
Entry Level - 3689.9
Sl - 3686.7
Tp - 3696.0
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Gold 4H Outlook – Buy the Dip or Fade the Drop?Gold on the 4H timeframe is consolidating below 3,600 after a strong bullish run. Current structure shows price resting near premium levels, with liquidity building both above 3,600 and below 3,530. This suggests engineered sweeps before the next expansion.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (4H):
• 🔼 Buy Zone 3,572 – 3,574 (SL 3,565): Fresh demand zone sitting at intraday discount; potential continuation area.
• 🔽 Sell Scalp Zone 3,530 – 3,526 (SL 3,537): Short-term supply/pivot area; scalp opportunity if price rejects.
• 📍 Liquidity Magnet 3,603 – 3,605: Upside imbalance zone likely to be rebalanced.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔺 Buy Setup – Demand Zone Reaction
• Entry: 3,572 – 3,574
• Stop Loss: 3,565
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,585
o TP2: 3,595
o TP3: 3,605
👉 Demand block aligned with bullish order flow. Look for liquidity sweep and rejection to resume trend.
________________________________________
🔻 Sell Scalp Setup – Short-Term Reaction
• Entry: 3,530 – 3,528
• Stop Loss: 3,537
• Take Profits:
o TP1: 3,520
o TP2: 3,510
o TP3: 3,500
👉 Intraday supply zone and pivot. Best used for quick scalps against trend, targeting downside liquidity.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
Bias remains bullish overall, but intraday shorts are valid for scalps. The cleaner setup is buying into 3,572–3,574 for continuation toward 3,600+. Smart money may sweep liquidity at 3,530 before reversing higher.
Gold Price Analysis: Sideways Now, Big Move After Fed Rates?Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading near 3645 levels, consolidating inside a contracting wedge after its recent strong bullish rally. The overall trend remains positive, but momentum has slowed as markets await the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to bring volatility. If the Fed signals further easing or a dovish stance, gold could attempt another push higher, breaking the 3675 resistance and aiming toward 3700–3730. However, if the Fed maintains a cautious or less dovish tone, profit-taking may accelerate and trigger a pullback.
The key level to watch on the downside is the 3625–3600 support zone; a clear break below this area could open the door toward 3565 and 3531, with deeper correction possible to 3498. Traders should stay cautious and wait for confirmation: a break above 3675 would confirm bullish continuation, while a drop below 3600 would favor short setups targeting lower support levels. Until then, gold remains in a neutral-to-bearish consolidation phase, with the Fed decision likely to provide the breakout trigger.
📊 Trend Analysis
- Overall trend since late August has been strong bullish, but momentum has slowed in the past few sessions.
- Price is now consolidating in a wedge/triangle formation.
- Current price action is sideways-to-bearish within consolidation, indicating possible pullback/reversal setup if support breaks.
- As long as 3675 isn’t broken decisively, risk of retracement remains toward 3565 – 3530 area.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: 3670 – 3680
- Support: 3625 – 3600
🎯 Trade Setup
- Sell Bias (Short-Term):
- If price fails to break 3645–3650 resistance and breaks below 3625–3600 support zone, it can trigger a sell trade.
- Sell Trigger: Break & close below 3600.
- Targets: 3565 → 3531 → 3498.
👉 Trend Right Now:
Gold is in a short-term consolidation / bearish bias inside the wedge. The major bullish rally has already slowed down, and price is struggling to break above 3645–3650 resistance. Unless gold decisively breaks 3675, the current move looks more like a distribution phase before a pullback.
- So, near-term trend = sideways-to-bearish (towards 3600 → 3565 → 3530)
- Long-term trend = still bullish, as long as price holds above 3530–3498 support.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Gold Price Analysis (XAUUSD) – September 16, 20251. Main Trend
Gold continues to show a strong bullish structure, supported by multiple bullish flag/pennant patterns. Each consolidation phase has been followed by a breakout to the upside, confirming that buyers remain in full control.
2. Key Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: 3,700 USD – a strong psychological level now being tested.
Next Resistance: 3,720 – 3,735 USD if price breaks above 3,700.
Near-Term Support: 3,675 USD (aligned with EMA20 on H1).
Major Support Zone: 3,640 – 3,645 USD (previous breakout area & trendline confluence).
3. Technical Indicators
EMA20 & EMA50: Price trades firmly above both EMAs, confirming a bullish trend.
RSI (H1): Approaching 70, suggesting potential short-term pullback before continuation.
Fibonacci Levels: A retracement toward the 38.2% level aligns with support at 3,645 USD.
4. Trading Strategies
Strategy 1 – Breakout Buy:
Enter long if price breaks and closes above 3,700 with momentum.
Targets: 3,720 – 3,735 USD.
Stop-loss: below 3,685 USD.
Strategy 2 – Buy on Dip (safer entry):
Wait for a pullback toward 3,675 – 3,645 USD.
Targets: 3,700 – 3,735 USD.
Stop-loss: below 3,625 USD.
Strategy 3 – Short-term Sell (countertrend):
If price rejects 3,700 with reversal candlesticks, short toward 3,675 USD.
Stop-loss: above 3,705 USD.
Conclusion: Gold remains in a strong uptrend with every dip being absorbed quickly. The 3,700 USD level is the key psychological barrier today. While the priority is still buying with the trend, traders should wait for either a confirmed breakout or a healthy pullback to enter at optimal levels.
Follow this analysis to stay updated with new strategies, and save it if you find it useful for your trading plan.
XAUUSD – Wave (4) Pullback Setting Up Wave (5) ExtensionHey Traders,
Gold on the M30 chart is still holding a bullish structure, but the recent push into the upper channel line shows early signs of exhaustion. Here’s my full breakdown and trading plan:
🔍 Technical Overview
Price just completed Wave (3) around 3697.40, tagging the upper trend channel – a natural profit-taking zone.
The 3666–3670 range has been a key pivot/support zone multiple times; I expect a pullback into this area for Wave (4) before another rally.
3657 marks deeper support and the invalidation point for the bullish setup.
If Wave (4) holds, Wave (5) targets 3720–3725.
📈 Key Levels
Type Price Level Notes
Resistance 3695–3700 Wave (3) top + upper channel edge – watch rejection
Support (1) 3666–3670 Primary buy zone for Wave (4)
Support (2) 3657 Strong support & invalidation
Wave (5) TP 3720–3725 Expected Wave (5) extension target
⚙️ Trading Plan
✅ Primary Setup – Buy the Dip (Trend Continuation)
Entry Zone: 3666–3670 (or a brief sweep to ~3657).
Confirmation: Bullish engulfing candle, pin bar, or MACD crossover on M30.
Targets:
TP1: 3695–3700 (prior highs)
TP2: 3720–3725 (Wave (5) projection)
Stop Loss: Below ~3652.
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 to 1:3 depending on entry.
⚠️ Secondary Setup – Countertrend Short
Scenario: Strong rejection again at 3695–3700.
Targets: 3670 → 3657.
Stop Loss: Above ~3703–3707.
Note: This is countertrend and higher risk – take quick profits, small position sizing.
🛡 Risk & Invalidation
A close below 3656 with a break of the lower trend channel invalidates the bullish Wave (5) scenario.
Always risk ≤1–1.5% per trade, wait for confirmation, and don’t chase if price runs without you.
🧭 Final Thoughts
Gold remains in a bullish short-term channel. A healthy pullback into 3666–3670 could provide the perfect entry for the next Wave (5) leg up. Be patient for price action confirmation.
Countertrend shorts are possible on a sharp rejection at 3695–3700, but the main play is buying the dip.
Stay disciplined, trade the levels, and let the market come to you.
Are you still holding your short position?Gold broke out of a low-level consolidation phase on Monday and experienced a significant upward movement. The primary drivers of this rally were heightened geopolitical tensions, which enhanced gold’s safe-haven appeal, as well as the weakening of the US dollar and declining US bond yields.
During this substantial price surge, many traders have been forced to exit their positions prematurely. While some continue to hold on, a large portion of market participants are making trading decisions based primarily on intuition rather than objective analysis. A common belief among traders is that a significant rise in price will likely be followed by a correction. However, in this case, gold has continued to rise steadily without any notable reversal.
Short-term trading strategy for gold: Consider opening a short position near or above the intact resistance level of 3685.
For those who are currently holding short positions at lower levels, please feel free to leave a comment and follow for further analysis and tailored guidance. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD
Intraday short position is dominant, beware of big drop#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
As I analyzed with you over the weekend, although gold prices largely fluctuated at high levels last week, the overall structure remained within an upward trend. Yesterday's daily line closed with a big positive line, breaking the box-shaped oscillation in one fell swoop. This morning, gold continued its bullish trend, reaching a high of around 3689. Judging from the market trends, the overall short-term bullish trend remains unchanged, but this does not mean the end of the short position.
First, the risk of chasing high prices is far greater than shorting, and the technical analysis suggests a potential correction.
As the price of gold rises, the previous resistance gradually turns into short-term support. If gold wants to continue to rise, it must at least fall back to 3665-3655.
Secondly, regarding the news, first, although the fourth China-US talks have not yet released any signals about tariffs, the news released by China is conducive to positive developments. Second, the court dismissed Trump's charges against Cook. Although the White House has stated that it will continue to do so, this move has effectively reduced market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. From the news perspective, it is conducive to the decline of gold.
Therefore, I remain optimistic about a short-term pullback in gold prices. Those without existing orders can consider continuing to short gold in batches above 3680, with a short-term target of 3665-3655. It can not only effectively raise the average price, but also occupy an advantageous position when gold experiences a sharp correction. However, it should be noted that in short trading, the number of trading lots must be strictly controlled to reduce trading risks and not let the account collapse on the eve of profit.
Gold Ahead of FOMC: Holding the Uptrend Near 3,700Hi everyone, gold is heading into a highly sensitive week as the FOMC prepares to release its rate decision and policy guidance. On the H1 chart, price just broke above 3,680 with a strong candle and higher volume, now consolidating just below the 3,690–3,700 resistance cluster. The overall trend remains bullish, with price riding the upward-sloping Ichimoku cloud and clear support steps below: 3,662–3,665 as the nearest cushion, 3,648–3,642 as the deeper defence, and 3,635–3,625 as the intraday pivot. As long as gold holds above 3,660, I lean towards further accumulation and a retest of 3,690–3,700. A confirmed close above 3,700 on H1/H4 could unlock 3,715–3,730.
From the news angle, the FOMC midweek is the main trigger. A dovish Powell and softer dot-plot would likely weigh on USD and yields, giving gold a strong chance to clear 3,700. On the flip side, a hawkish surprise could spark profit-taking, dragging price back to 3,662–3,665 or even 3,648–3,642 to test buyers. Labour data, PMI, and the BoE decision will also shape sentiment. With recent US figures underwhelming, markets are leaning towards a softer Fed, which underpins gold’s bias. For now, I favour the bullish scenario, keeping an eye on reactions around 3,665 and 3,645 once the FOMC news hits.
What’s your call – dovish or hawkish Fed this week?
GOLD → Testing 3700. What to expect from the price going forwardFX:XAUUSD continues to rally. Ahead lies the psychological barrier of 3700, where the market may form profit-taking ahead of Tuesday and Wednesday's news...
Gold is testing 3700. The bullish trend remains unshakable thanks to a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
Expectations of Fed policy easing: There is a high probability of a 25 bps rate cut (possibly even 50 bps) as early as this week. Trump's pressure on Powell reinforces these expectations.
Stagflation risks: Slowing growth amid steady inflation increases the appeal of gold as a hedge.
Risks: Profit-taking: After a sharp rise, a short-term correction is possible in the psychological target zone of 3700. Retail sales data (today): Weak data will support gold, while strong data may temporarily strengthen the dollar. Fed decision (tomorrow): Even if the rate is lowered, a “sell on the fact” reaction is possible.
Resistance levels: 3700, 3710
Support levels: 3685, 3675, 3657
Technically, since the opening of the session, gold has lost part of its daily ATR, and the upward movement may be zigzag-shaped, especially ahead of the news. I expect a correction from the market to 3685-3675 with the aim of rebounding upwards...
Best regards, R. Linda!
XAUUSD Short: Correction After the All-Time HighHello, traders! The prior market structure for XAUUSD was a prolonged consolidation range, from which the price broke out with significant bullish momentum. This breakout initiated a powerful upward trend, with the price auction pushing through multiple resistance levels to establish a new all-time high. This marked the climax of the recent buying initiative.
Currently, following the peak at the ATH, the market has entered a corrective phase. Sellers have taken control in the short term, and the price is now declining from the highs. The auction is presently challenging the first major demand zone located between 3585 and 3570, but the bearish momentum appears strong.
The primary scenario anticipates a continuation of this corrective move. The expectation is that the current 3570 demand level will fail to hold against the selling pressure. A confirmed breakdown below this demand zone would validate the short thesis and open the path for a deeper correction towards the main ascending trend line. The take-profit is therefore set at 3565, targeting the area immediately following this breakdown. Manage your risk!
Trade cautiously and wait for a pullback to go longGood morning, my friends.
At present, gold continues to rise, and blindly chasing more will definitely lead to huge risks. We originally planned to wait for gold to pull back before going long, but the market did not give us this opportunity.
I didn't let you blindly chase the short positions yesterday. Now, are you glad that you followed my advice and didn't enter the market rashly? I know that after it hit 3675 yesterday, there must have been a lot of people shorting the market. Many brothers even held their positions until today, but found that the market did not give a good retracement point. At this time, it's even more important to avoid being manipulated by emotions and engaging in revenge trading.
In the short term, the prudent approach is still to wait for gold to pull back before going long. In the short term, focus on 3675-3665. If it does not break through the pullback, you can try to go long on gold.
XAUUSD Could top in September but long term looks bright.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up for the past 2 years and right now it is unfolding its latest Bullish Leg. That started after the previous pull-back/ consolidation phase (May - July) hit and found Support on the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
This trend-line has been Gold's major Support and buy entry since mid-October 2023. Every pull-back on/ near it, kick-started a Bullish Leg, the weakest of which has been +16.59% and the strongest +23.75%.
Since April 15 2024, the 1D RSI Resistance has been a great indication of when to sell (equally for buying the Support), so even though we expect the current Bullish Leg to complete a +22.06% rise at least, we will be looking at the RSI Resistance more closely to time the sell.
The subsequent pull-back should bounce on the dashed pivot trend-line and naturally again on the 1D MA100, which will be a buy opportunity towards the ultimate long-term Target of 4300 (+22.00% again).
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Gold XAUUSD: Anticipating a Retracement for Continuation Long📊 Currently watching Gold (XAUUSD), price has been pushing aggressively higher in a strong bullish trend. However, the market is now reaching into areas of thin liquidity, appearing somewhat overextended.
🔎 I’m anticipating a potential retracement toward the 50% equilibrium level of the previous price swing. Within an ongoing uptrend, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement often acts as a prime entry zone 🏹 for continuation trades.
⚖️ If price pulls back and establishes support, followed by a bullish break of market structure, that would provide a high-probability opportunity. If the setup fails to materialize, then there’s simply no trade — patience is key.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is educational analysis only and not financial advice. Always manage risk appropriately.
Gold hit another record highGold hit another record high due to concerns over the Fed's independence and the recent weak US labor market. Yesterday evening, the US Senate officially confirmed Stephen Miran as President Trump's new nominee to the Federal Reserve Board in an incredibly tight 48-47 vote, raising concern that he will follow the US President and draw down the Fed's independence.
Meanwhile, the US labor market has recently raised concerns about the stagflation situation, which is the best environment for gold as a safe-haven asset. Although the Sahm Rule is not triggering, weak immigration could understate the unemployment number and the break event number.
Elsewhere, the expectation of an accelerated Fed rate cut could dampen the US dollar, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Technically, XAUUSD surpassed the Fibonacci Extension of 2.168 and tends to test the 3.800 level. Expanding EMAs (21,78) indicate strong bullish momentum.
GOLD → A s.triangle against the backdrop of a bullish trend... FX:XAUUSD is consolidating in anticipation of positive news from the Fed, namely a cut in interest rates. Against this backdrop, the dollar is falling, which only supports the price of gold...
Gold is trading in a sideways range around $3650 at the start of a week packed with central bank events. Despite the lack of a clear direction, the metal is finding support thanks to several factors.
Key drivers: Weak economic data from China, anticipation of the Fed's decision: On Wednesday, the Fed will almost certainly cut rates by 25 basis points, but there is a chance of 50 basis points. This supports gold.
The tone of Powell's comments will determine expectations for further cuts.
Technically, gold remains stable ahead of key events. China's weak economy and the Fed's dovish policy limit the potential for decline. A break above $3650 is possible with dovish signals from the Fed or an escalation of trade risks.
Resistance levels: 3646, 3657, 3675
Support levels: 3630, 3620, 3600
As part of the formation of a “symmetrical triangle” consolidation, I will consider a retest of the consolidation support with the possibility of further growth (distribution).
Sincerely, R. Linda!
Gold (XAU/USD) –> Bullish Rectangle Pattern BreakoutHello guys!
💥Gold has been consolidating in a bullish rectangle pattern after a strong upward move. This type of pattern usually signals continuation, with price gearing up for the next leg higher.
🔹 Setup:
The rectangle formed around $3680–$3690 support and resistance near $3689.
A clean breakout above $3689 gives the entry signal for the continuation move.
🔹 Targets:
First target: $3705
Second target: $3724
🔹 Stop Loss:
Below the rectangle support ($3674–$3682) to stay protected against a false breakout.
📌 Conclusion:
The bullish rectangle pattern suggests that Gold is preparing for another push higher. A breakout above 3689 opens the path first to 3705, and then to the extended target at 3724.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
September 16th Gold Trading Strategy Report:
I. Core Views
Gold's daily and 4-hour technical structures show a significant bullish pattern, having reached a record high. The main trend is upward, but the short-term RSI is overbought and facing the risk event of the Federal Reserve’s decision, market volatility may intensify. Strategically, we should prioritize buying on dips and following the trend. Avoid chasing highs and be prepared for a potential pullback triggered by a hawkish Fed decision.
II. Technical Analysis Summary
Daily Chart:
Trend: Strong uptrend, with a medium-sized bullish candlestick breaking through the previous high. The moving average system shows a standard bullish pattern.
Key Support:
Primary Support: 3655 (current 5-day moving average)
Secondary Support: 3620 (10-day moving average)
Bull-Bear Dividing Level: 3613. If the price holds above this level, the upward trend remains intact.
Key Resistance:
Primary Resistance: 3695 (upper limit of the ascending channel)
Breakthrough Targets: 3715, 3722
Risk Warning: RSI is in the overbought zone above 70, suggesting a technical pullback.
Four-Hour Chart:
Wave Structure: Confirmed to be in the third wave of the five-wave upward trend, with strong momentum.
Key Support:
Primary Support: 3674 (previous high reversal level)
Minor Support: 3656/57
Short-term bull/bear boundary: 3626. Until this level is broken, the short-term bullish strategy remains unchanged.
III. Trading Strategy and Plan
(Pre-Federal Reserve Decision - Short-term)
Main Strategy: Buy at low levels, entering the market in batches based on support.
Entry Zone: Establish long positions in batches within the 3656-3665 range.
Stop-loss: Below 3646 (or below 3656) to ensure trading discipline.
Target Areas:
First Target: 3685 - 3690
Second Target (after a breakout): 3700 - 3715
(Counter-trend short-term trading, always keep a small position!)
Aggressive: Try a small short position in the 3685-3690 area, with a stop-loss of 8 pips, targeting 3665-3655.
Conservative type: Wait for the price to test the 3700-3705 area before placing short orders in batches, betting on technical pullbacks or event-driven declines.
Trading Plan:
Consider taking profits on long positions before the decision or on a breakout.
Closely monitor price reactions. If a breakout or direct decline signals arose, shift your focus to shorting opportunities at higher levels, targeting daily support levels (3655, 3620).
IV. Key Risk Warnings
Federal Reserve Policy Risk: This decision is the biggest variable. The key focus isn't whether or not there will be a rate cut, but rather the wording of the policy statement, the dot plot's projections of the path of future rate cuts, and the tone of Powell's speech. Any "hawkish" hint could weigh on gold prices.
Political Event Risk: Political agendas, such as Fed Board nominations, could trigger unexpected market volatility.
V. Summary and Risk Management
Today's Key Trend: Expect strong consolidation at high levels before the decision, with the possibility of further upward movement. The operation is mainly to go long when the price falls back to key support, but all positions must be well risk-controlled before major events.
Risk Control:
Strict Stop-Loss: A stop-loss must be set for all trades to prevent a unilateral reversal in the event market.
Maintain a light position: Volatility is magnified in the lead-up to the event, so be sure to reduce your position to control risk.
GOLD H1 | Bullish continuationBased on the H1 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry at 3,655.51, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Stop loss is at 3,631.24, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 3,684.97, which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
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GOLD Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 3,684.42.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 3,743.94 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Gold Near ATH – Fed Catalyst Incoming!🚀 Gold Holds Near Record Highs – Key Buy Zones Ahead of Fed Policy Shift
📰 Market Context
Gold remains close to its record highs as traders brace for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected monetary policy easing this week. Market participants are also hunting for clues about potential rate cuts later this year.
Adding fuel to the bullish sentiment, unprecedented pressure from former President Trump on the Fed—including attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook—has become the latest catalyst. According to Goldman Sachs, this could send gold soaring toward the $5,000/oz mark over the longer term.
🔢 Technical & Fibonacci Outlook
On the H1 chart, price has respected the uptrend trendline and is approaching key reaction levels:
Fibo Reaction Zone – Bullish Breakout Support: Around 3,655 (potential first entry)
Down Trendline Retest Zone: Around 3,624 (secondary entry for deeper pullbacks)
Upper liquidity levels 3,727–3,738 mark the next reaction zone where sellers could appear.
These Fibonacci levels align with prior breakout points, suggesting strong structural support.
🟢 Trade Ideas
1️⃣ BUY ZONE #1: 3,655
Stop Loss (SL): 3,645
Take Profit (TP): Risk–Reward 1:1 → 1:2 → 1:3 → Open for new ATH if momentum continues
2️⃣ BUY ZONE #2: 3,624
SL: 3,610
TP: Risk–Reward 1:1 → 1:2 → 1:3 → Open for new ATH|
⚠ Key Notes & Risk Management
Monitor Fed announcements closely—volatility can spike during the policy release.
Watch for liquidity grabs near 3,727–3,738; partial profits may be considered there.
Always adjust your position size to account for potential whipsaws around high-impact news.
This analysis is for educational and idea-sharing purposes only, not financial advice.
💬 Discussion
📊 Do you expect the Fed’s decision to fuel a breakout toward a new all-time high, or will gold face heavy profit-taking at liquidity zones? Share your perspective below!
Gold 1H – Breakout Liquidity Trap Ahead of ExpansionGold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating near 3,652 after sweeping discount liquidity and reclaiming structure. Price has tapped into the breakout zone and is now positioned between premium scalp supply and higher liquidity pools. The structure suggests engineered plays into 3,656–3,658 or deeper liquidity toward 3,672–3,674 before expansion. Discount demand remains protected at 3,614–3,612.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,672 – 3,674 (SL 3,679): Premium supply pocket for engineered rejection targeting 3,660 → 3,650 → 3,640.
• 🔴 SELL SCALP 3,656 – 3,658 (SL 3,663): Short-term premium sweep zone for intraday liquidity grabs targeting 3,645 → 3,640.
• 🟢 BUY ZONE 3,614 – 3,612 (SL 3,607): Discount demand block aligned with bullish order flow targeting 3,630 → 3,640 → 3,655.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Scalp Rejection
• Entry: 3,656 – 3,658
• Stop Loss: 3,663
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,645
TP2: 3,640
👉 Intraday scalp opportunity if price sweeps into shallow premium liquidity.
🔻 Sell Setup – Deeper Premium Sweep
• Entry: 3,672 – 3,674
• Stop Loss: 3,679
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,660
TP2: 3,650
TP3: 3,640
👉 Expect engineered sweep into higher premium before reversal.
🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand Reaction
• Entry: 3,614 – 3,612
• Stop Loss: 3,607
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,630
TP2: 3,640
TP3: 3,655
👉 High R:R play if price retraces to protected demand before expansion.
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🔑 Strategy Note
Smart money is likely to manipulate both premium and discount zones around the breakout point. Bias favors:
• Scalp sells at 3,656–3,658
• Swing sells at 3,672–3,674
• Discount buys at 3,614–3,612
Risk management is critical — expect liquidity sweeps both sides before real expansion.
XAUUSD – Gold Price Analysis for September 16, 2025On the H1 chart, gold continues its strong bullish momentum, forming and breaking out of multiple bullish flag patterns. Each corrective pullback stayed inside a downward channel before breaking upward, confirming that the dominant trend remains uptrend.
1. Technical Outlook
EMA: Price is trading well above short-term EMAs, showing strong bullish control.
Trendline: The ascending trendline from early September is still intact with no sign of reversal.
Fibonacci: The rally from 3,580 to 3,683 has a key Fib 38.2% retracement around 3,650 – 3,655, making it a critical support zone.
RSI: Currently neutral (55–60), leaving room for further upside before reaching overbought levels.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Support: 3,655 – 3,660 (Fib 38.2% + trendline confluence).
Major Support: 3,620 – 3,625 (previous correction low).
Immediate Resistance: 3,690 – 3,700 (short-term high).
Major Resistance: 3,720 – 3,725 (psychological barrier + Fib 161.8% extension).
3. Trading Strategies
Strategy 1: Buy on Dip
Entry: 3,655 – 3,660
Stop Loss: 3,640
Take Profit: 3,690 – 3,700, extended to 3,720
Strategy 2: Breakout Buy
If price breaks above 3,690 – 3,700 with strong volume
Target: 3,720 – 3,725, extended to 3,750
Stop Loss: below 3,680
Strategy 3: Intraday Scalping
On M15 chart, buy around 3,670 – 3,675 during minor pullbacks
Quick targets toward 3,690
4. Conclusion
The overall bias for today remains bullish. Buying on dips near support zones is favored over counter-trend selling. Watch the 3,655 support and 3,700 breakout level closely, as they will determine today’s directional move.
If gold breaks and holds above 3,700, the door opens for a potential rally toward 3,750+.