XAUUSD Analysis – September 11, 2025On the H1 timeframe, Gold is showing signs of weakness after failing to hold the key resistance zone. Price is currently trading around 3,622 USD, with short-term selling pressure becoming more visible.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 3,634 – 3,657 USD
→ Strong supply zone where sellers are actively pushing price down.
Support: 3,616 – 3,570 USD
→ A breakdown below this area could trigger a deeper pullback toward 3,552 USD.
EMA Signals:
Price has slipped below short-term EMAs and is now testing the mid-term EMA, signaling corrective momentum.
The EMA200 (purple line) sits around 3,570 USD, overlapping with strong support → this level will be decisive for the next trend direction.
Trading Strategy:
Bearish Scenario (preferred):
Consider short positions if price retests 3,630 – 3,634 USD.
Targets: 3,616 → 3,570 USD.
Stop-loss above 3,657 USD.
Bullish Scenario (countertrend):
Only consider long entries near 3,570 – 3,552 USD if clear reversal signals appear.
Recovery targets: 3,616 → 3,634 USD.
Conclusion:
Gold faces short-term downside pressure and may test the 3,616 – 3,570 USD support zone. The reaction around EMA200 will determine whether this is just a technical correction or the start of a deeper bearish phase.
Gold
XAU/USD: Resistance at 3,650 Triggers Potential Pullback SetupXAU/USD has reached the 3,650 resistance zone after a strong bullish rally within its upward channel, but momentum is now stalling. A visible top formation is emerging on the chart, with sellers actively defending this level, suggesting a possible corrective move ahead.
If gold fails to break and sustain above 3,650, the price may retrace toward the next key support at 3,546. While the broader trend remains bullish, near-term momentum indicates a likely pullback phase. Upcoming economic data could also influence whether the market consolidates or corrects from current levels.
Gold Faces 3700 USD Resistance – Reversal or Breakout?👋Hello everyone, what do you think about the trend of OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Currently, gold is trading around 3645 USD in a price box, almost unchanged compared to the same session yesterday. Alternating rises and pullbacks indicate accumulation. Investors are now eagerly waiting for the upcoming CPI and Unemployment Claims data. If results come out weaker for the USD, gold may find an opportunity to challenge the key 3700 USD level.
Let’s wait for the results and see how gold will move!
Good luck!
Gold Trading Strategy XAUUSD 11/9/2025Gold Trading Strategy XAUUSD 11/9/2025: Gold is stable, traders prepare ahead of important US CPI data, conditions and technical positions to watch.
Fundamental news: Spot gold prices were generally stable in today's Asian trading session, currently around $3630/ounce. Gold prices are in a wait-and-see mode, closely watching the all-time high before the release of US CPI data for August. Weak US PPI inflation data, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue its easing cycle at its upcoming meeting in September.
Technical analysis: After making the latest ATH at 3675, gold prices are correcting and forming a short-term downtrend channel in the H1 frame, however, the 3620 - 3625 area is still a good support zone for gold prices. Currently, there will be 2 scenarios with the highest probability of occurrence: Case 1: Gold price will form an upward price pattern around the 3620 - 3625 area and increase sharply, we will wait for the reaction when the price meets resistance at 3660 - 3665. Case 2: Gold price continues to follow the downtrend channel to the lower support area of 3595 - 3600 and then increase again. We will trade based on these 2 scenarios and still prioritize trading according to the main trend.
Important price zones today: 3620 - 3625, 3595 - 3600 and 3660 - 3665.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3620 - 3622
SL 3617
TP 3625 - 3635 - 3645 - 3665 - OPEN.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3598 - 3600
SL 3595
TP 3603 - 3610 - 3630 - 3660 - OPEN.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 3663 - 3665
SL 3668
TP 3660 - 3650 - 3640 - 3630 (small volume).
Wish you a safe, effective and profitable trading day.🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Gold Trading Strategy XAUUSD 11/9/2025Gold Trading Strategy XAUUSD 11/9/2025: Gold is stable, traders prepare ahead of important US CPI data, conditions and technical positions to watch.
Fundamental news: Spot gold prices were generally stable in today's Asian trading session, currently around $3630/ounce. Gold prices are in a wait-and-see mode, closely watching the all-time high before the release of US CPI data for August. Weak US PPI inflation data, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue its easing cycle at its upcoming meeting in September.
Technical analysis: After making the latest ATH at 3675, gold prices are correcting and forming a short-term downtrend channel in the H1 frame, however, the 3620 - 3625 area is still a good support zone for gold prices. Currently, there will be 2 scenarios with the highest probability of occurrence: Case 1: Gold price will form an upward price pattern around the 3620 - 3625 area and increase sharply, we will wait for the reaction when the price meets resistance at 3660 - 3665. Case 2: Gold price continues to follow the downtrend channel to the lower support area of 3595 - 3600 and then increase again. We will trade based on these 2 scenarios and still prioritize trading according to the main trend.
Important price zones today: 3620 - 3625, 3595 - 3600 and 3660 - 3665.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3620 - 3622
SL 3617
TP 3625 - 3635 - 3645 - 3665 - OPEN.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3598 - 3600
SL 3595
TP 3603 - 3610 - 3630 - 3660 - OPEN.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 3663 - 3665
SL 3668
TP 3660 - 3650 - 3640 - 3630 (small volume).
Wish you a safe, effective and profitable trading day.🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Buy And sell Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bearish After Break : 3635
🩸Bullish Reversal : 3595
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
BEARISH TREND After a bullish rally to the 3670's, we noticed a bearish stance in the market resulting in a drainer in the bullish momentum. Gold assumes a minor bearish pullback/retracement.
This bearish path leads to the 3590's just as shown in the analysis or may go below .
Note that this bearish sentiment is short term as we expect a bullish continuation after the bearish retracement.
Gold Promises New Highs👋Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Today, gold continues to hold a strong bullish trend, currently trading around 3,630 USD with a short-term pullback serving as momentum for the next move.
The key support zone is located around 3,600 – 3,580 USD. If this level holds, the upside remains open with the first psychological target at 3,700 USD. Two major indicators to watch are PPI (Sept 10) and CPI (Sept 11), which could act as the next catalysts for XAUUSD. Keep a close eye to catch trading opportunities.
Scalping Strategy – Optimal Profit Management
✔️ TP1 or 30 Pips: Close bad entry and move SL to entry
✔️ TP2 or 50–70 Pips: Close half of remaining profit, move SL to TP1
✔️ TP3: Close all
From my personal perspective, the main trend remains bullish. Pullbacks only serve as opportunities for safer long entries. And you—what do you think about gold’s trend?
XAU/USD (Gold) - Trendline Breakout (US - CPI Data) (11.09.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern.
This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3583
2nd Support – 3546
🎁 Please hit the like button and
🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post !
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Gold Bullish Momentum: Layering Longs For Maximum Gain!🏆 XAU/USD | The Gold Robbery Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade)
🎯 Plan Setup (Bullish)
Entry (Layering Style):
Using the Thief Layer Strategy 🕵️♂️ → Multiple Buy Limit layers
$3625
$3630
$3635
$3640
(Add more layers based on your own strategy & risk appetite)
Stop Loss (Thief SL):
@3610 (Adjust based on your own strategy & risk ⚠️)
Take Profit (Escape Point):
Target resistance zone @3690 🚪💰
⚡ Note: This is a flexible thief-style plan — adjust SL/TP levels as per your personal money management and execution style.
📊 Why This Plan? (Thief’s Market Analysis)
🔎 Real-Time Market Data (10 Sept 2025)
Price: $3,643.71
24h Change: +0.48%
Range: $3,620.90 – $3,644.56
🧠 Retail Sentiment (Contrarian Signal)
Long: 37%
Short: 63%
➡️ Retail crowd is heavily short → Contrarian bullish setup.
🏦 Institutional Sentiment (Commitment of Traders)
Net Long: +249,530 contracts
Long: 315,796
Short: 66,266
➡️ Institutions are firmly positioned long ✅
🌡️ Fear & Greed + Volatility
Neutral (shifting from Greed)
VIX <14 (52-week low) → Calm market backdrop
📉 Macro & Fundamentals
US jobs data: Weak (22K vs. 75K expected)
Fed rate cut probability: 99.4% (September meeting)
Central bank gold demand + geopolitical tensions supportive
Upcoming CPI/PPI = key catalyst
📐 Technical View
Price holding above $3,625 support
Ascending channel continuation
Overbought zone = caution for short pullbacks
🗝️ Key Takeaways (Thief OG Notes)
USD weakness + Fed dovish tilt = Gold tailwind
Retail shorts = bullish contrarian setup
Institutions backing the move higher
Short-term overbought → manage exits smartly
🔥 Related Markets to Watch
OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver)
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index)
SP:SPX (S&P 500)
TVC:US10Y (US 10Y Treasury Yield)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD (Bitcoin correlation check)
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Fundamentals #ThiefStrategy #TradingPlan #GoldBulls #MacroAnalysis #MarketSentiment
XAUUSD Analysis – September 11, 2025 (H1 timeframe)Gold continues to respect its bullish structure after breaking out of the ascending channel and is currently unfolding a potential short-term Elliott Wave (3)–(5) pattern. Price is consolidating around $3,630–$3,640 after a corrective pullback.
Technical Outlook
Trendline: The bullish channel remains intact; no breakdown of structure yet.
Key Resistance: $3,685–$3,700 (previous Wave (1) top). A clean breakout above this zone may open the door toward $3,720–$3,740.
Immediate Support: $3,615–$3,605 (Wave (2) low). Holding above keeps the bullish scenario valid; a breakdown may drag price back to $3,585.
EMA 50 & 100 (H1): Both acting as dynamic support, confirming bullish bias.
RSI (H1): Cooling down from overbought, creating fresh upside room.
Fibonacci retracement: Wave (2) corrected neatly around the 38.2% retracement, reinforcing the continuation scenario.
Trading Strategy
Buy zone: $3,615–$3,620, with stop-loss below $3,600.
Take profit 1: $3,685–$3,700.
Take profit 2 (if breakout holds): $3,720–$3,740.
If price breaks below $3,600, step aside and wait for new signals.
The main bias remains bullish. Focus on trading the impulsive waves and watch closely how price reacts at $3,615 support and $3,685 resistance.
Gold: Shallow pullback, target remains 3.65xAfter the BLS labour revision, gold on the H1 chart went through a sharp two-way move. Normally this release isn’t a big market driver, but this year it acted as a strong catalyst, causing heavy swings.
The uptrend structure is still intact: price is holding along the Ichimoku edge, each higher low confirms buyers are active, and there’s an FVG layer supporting near 3.62x. If a stronger sell-off comes, 3.60x around the cloud body remains a familiar magnet for balance.
From the macro side, today’s US PPI and tomorrow’s CPI, alongside jobless claims and the ECB press conference, will be key. Softer data could weigh on yields and the dollar, giving gold the tailwind to retest 3.64x–3.65x, with possible extension to 3.66x–3.67x. On the contrary, hot data risks dragging the metal back to 3.62x or even 3.60x before resuming higher.
My bias still favours a shallow retracement as long as 3.60x holds. The 3.64x–3.65x band is the near-term lid: a firm candle close above strengthens the breakout case. Before the data, though, I’d rather wait for candle confirmation than chase intra-bar spikes.
What about you? Do you think gold will break above 3.65x in this move, or will it need another balance around 3.60x first? Share your view below.
Gold Stalls Ahead of CPI – Pullback Setup Loading?Gold has been aggressively bullish for the past two weeks, but yesterday showed the first signs of exhaustion. Price stalled under the daily high ($3,690), leaving liquidity below untouched.
With CPI and unemployment claims scheduled during the NY session, we may see the dollar strengthen — providing the catalyst for a deeper pullback on Gold.
Key Zones I’m watching:
Upside Liquidity: Sweep above $3,690 (D-H) could serve as a trap before reversing lower.
Downside Targets:
$3,654–$3,652 (D-L/W-H confluence)
$3,600 node
$3,530–$3,550 (H4/8H FVG rebalancing zone)
If this week is to stay bullish overall, a proper low for the week forming inside the H4/8H FVG would set the stage for continuation higher. For now, patience until price makes its move around these zones.
A brief discussion on my views on recent gold price trendsLast night, I clearly outlined my outlook for gold. Today, the gold price retreated to the support range of 3635-3620 and then stabilized and rebounded. Our long orders have reaped considerable profits. It is a pity that the limit long order set at 3620 before going to bed failed to be triggered, and I missed out on a bigger profit.
Currently, gold's volatility is relatively low, and it has rebounded again to around 3645, which aligns with my view that gold will remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term. Our trading strategy is still highly referenceable. If gold falls back to test the lower support again in the short term, we can still consider going long again. If gold slowly fluctuates upward in the European session, the first thing to pay attention to is whether it can effectively break through 3655. Once it effectively breaks through, gold may retest the short-term resistance of 3665-3680.
CPI Showdown – Will Gold Claim 3675+ or Collapse First?Gold at the Gates – CPI Will Choose the Winner
Gold has been climbing relentlessly, step by step, like a king walking through open gates. The last breakout above 3640 was no accident — it was structure unfolding with precision.
Now, we stand in front of tomorrow’s battlefield: CPI and Jobless Claims. These are not just numbers; they’re the spark that can ignite a trend continuation… or flip the script in one violent sweep.
If bulls defend 3628–3635, the road is clear to 3660, and then the higher ground at 3675–3685.
But if the floor breaks, expect a sharp liquidity grab under 3635 before any recovery.
This is not a random range. It’s the decision point, where market makers will show their hand.
⚡ Tomorrow, the question is simple: will Gold march higher into uncharted territory, or will CPI pull the rug first?
⚡ If this plan gives you clarity, smash the like ❤️, drop your comment 💬, and don’t forget to follow GoldFxMinds for daily precision maps 🚀
Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis and Strategy:
I. Core Viewpoint
Gold has entered a period of high-level volatility after reaching a new all-time high. The bullish trend remains intact, but it faces a dual challenge in the short term from technical corrections and fundamental events (US inflation data). Market sentiment has become cautious, and trading strategies should prioritize a cautious bullish outlook and be wary of pullbacks.
II. News Analysis:
Reasons for the Roller Coaster Market:
Record-breaking Momentum: Revised US employment data, worse than expected, reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow its tightening pace, which was the core driver of gold's new highs.
Profit-taking Pressure: After gold prices continued to rise and hit new all-time highs, a large number of long positions were liquidated at high levels, which was the main reason for the rapid price decline. This is a healthy technical correction, not a trend reversal.
The rebound in the US dollar and US Treasuries: The US dollar index rebounded from a seven-week low, and US Treasury yields rose from a five-month low. This increased the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, exerting short-term pressure on gold prices.
Future Focus: US CPI Data:
This week's focus: All eyes are on the upcoming release of the US August CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data. These data are the most important reference indicators before the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision.
III. In-depth Technical Analysis
Trend Positioning: The daily bullish trend is undeniable. The market closed with a big bullish candlestick last week and continued to be strong at the beginning of this week. All moving average systems are in a bullish arrangement, providing support for prices.
Key Level Analysis:
Upper Resistance:
Short-term Resistance: 3645-3655 (Yesterday's high conversion and psychological barrier)
Core Resistance: 3665-3680 (historical high area)
Ultimate Target: 3700 (major psychological and technical barrier)
Lower Support:
First Support: 3630-3628 (top of yesterday's Asia-Europe trading range, turning into a watershed for intraday strength and weakness)
Second Support: 3610-3600 (psychological barrier and concentrated trading area)
Bull Lifeline: 3580 (last wave starting point & 4-hour top and bottom conversion level). If it falls below this level, it means that this round of strong rise may come to an end, and the market will enter a deeper adjustment or turn bearish.
Trading Strategy and Thinking:
Long Strategy (Buy Low):
Aggressive Buy: When the 3630-3628 support area stabilizes (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern appears), try a small buy position with a stop-loss below 3620, targeting 3645-3655.
Steady long buy: wait for a pullback to the key support area of 3610-3600 or even 3580 before placing long orders in batches, with the stop loss set below 3570 and the target to return to above 3630. Short-selling strategy (selling at high levels):
Blindly chasing high prices is not recommended at this time. If the price rebounds to the strong resistance area of 3645-3655, try a small short position with a stop-loss above 3665, targeting 3630-3620.
If the gold price unexpectedly falls below the key support of 3628, you can follow the trend and enter a short position, with the target at 3610-3600.
IV. Summary and Today's Trading Recommendations
Overall Strategy: Before the release of major data, the market is likely to remain volatile at high levels. Operators should reduce their positions and set strict stop-loss orders to avoid the risk of sharp fluctuations caused by data fluctuations.
Intraday Short-Term:
Short if the market breaks through the 3645-3655 area, with a stop-loss at 3660 and a target of 3635-3625.
Long if the market retraces below the 3615-3605 area, with a stop-loss at 3598 and a target of 3625-3635.
Trend Following:
Hold the 3580 bullish support level, maintain a bullish outlook above this level, and view all pullbacks as buying opportunities.
If it effectively breaks below 3580, we will need to turn bearish or wait and see, waiting for a new direction to be chosen.
Risk Warning: The above analysis is based on current market information; trading decisions should be considered in conjunction with real-time market conditions. The key focus this week is the US CPI data. It is recommended to liquidate positions or maintain a very light position before the data is released, and then trade accordingly once the data direction becomes clear.
GOLD → Consolidation before continued growth FX:XAUUSD is undergoing a correction amid revised unemployment data, but this has not disrupted the overall technical situation. The market is still anticipating an aggressive reduction in interest rates...
The price resumed its growth on Wednesday amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar ahead of the release of US inflation data (PPI). The price is correcting after a record high of $3675, but retains the potential for further growth.
The escalation of the situation in Eastern Europe and the Middle East is increasing demand for safe assets. Expectations of Fed policy easing and a revision of employment data are weighing on the USD.
PPI inflation data: Today's release may temporarily support the USD if the figures exceed forecasts, but the overall trend remains bearish for the dollar.
PPI data is ahead, which may cause short-term volatility, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
Support levels: 3640, 3628
Resistance levels: 3657, 3675
Technically, I expect to see a correction from local resistance to the 3645-3640 area, from which growth may continue. A breakout of 3657 could trigger a continuation of the momentum.
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,647.80 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,634.87.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD - BEARISH TO $3,588 (1H UPDATE)Like I said on yesterday’s update, we’re yet to see ‘Minor Wave 4’ correction on Gold, as part of the bigger Wave 3 bullish cycle.
We’ve seen a ‘Break of Structure’ as price broke below previous ‘Wave IV’ yesterday. I’ve placed a ‘Sell Stop’ order at $3,629. If this activates, I’ll be targeting $3,588📉
If this doesn’t activate, then our buy positions keep pushing higher into profit!
XAUUSD – PPI Ahead: Key Liquidity Levels & Trading Plan🚀 MMFLOW TRADING
Market View:
After yesterday’s sharp drop where sellers dominated the liquidity zone, gold (XAUUSD) is now recovering from 362x → 364x during the Asian session. In the short term, price may range between 362x–365x in Asia/Europe before going sideways to await the PPI release in the US session.
Today’s PPI is expected at 0.3% vs 0.9% previous, signalling cooling inflation. However, actual data could surprise higher – often creating a “news trap”. From a technical view, gold may need to revisit 360x liquidity before resuming its uptrend ahead of CPI & the upcoming FED meeting.
👉 In short: Structure remains bullish, but short-term liquidity sweeps are likely before any continuation move.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 3647 – 3654 – 3665 – 3674 – 3704
Support: 3635 – 3613 – 3600 – 3586
Trading Plan:
🔵 BUY Zone: 3600 – 3598
SL: 3592 (or tighter at 3580)
TP: 3605 → 3610 → 3615 → 3620 → 3630 → 3640 → 3650+
🔴 SELL Zone: 3703 – 3705
SL: 3710
TP: 3698 → 3694 → 3690 → 3680 → 3670 → 3660+
Summary:
✅ Gold remains in an uptrend, but may retest 360x liquidity before heading higher.
✅ PPI today & CPI tomorrow could act as a “news trap” – caution is required.
👉 Watch the key levels and follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time updates & BIGWIN setups!
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update
Please see update on our weekly chart idea.
Sunday we stated that we had the weekly body close above the channel top at 3576 and now opened the door to the larger 3659 long-term gap target.
- this target is now complete
We will now look for a close above 3659 for a continuation or failure to lock will follow with a rejection into lower levels for support.
🔹 Range Support Levels
3576 and 3482 now act as layered support levels to keep the bullish case intact within this range.
Updated Levels to Watch
📉 Support – 3482 & 3576
Key supports for this new range. Holding above 3576 strengthens the case for continuation toward 3659. A failure back below 3576 puts 3482 into play as the next defensive level.
📈 Resistance – 3732
This becomes the next upside objective if structure holds above 3659.
Thanks as always for your support,
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
This is a follow up update on our 4H chart idea that we shared Sunday stating that we still had the final gap in the range left.
EMA5 cross and cross and lock above 3561 left 3615 open.
- This target was hit this week now completing our 4H chart idea.
Keep an eye out for our NEW 4H chart idea with updated levels and route map.
BULLISH TARGET
3424 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3424 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3499 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3561 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3561 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3615 - DONE
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
A Healthy Market Breathes. Gold Hasn’t Exhaled Yet.I remain bullish on Gold overall — that’s not in question.
On 24 August, I even shared a complete cross-market outlook arguing that acceleration to the upside could be the next big move. And indeed, we got it.
But here’s the paradox of markets: sometimes, the stronger the rally, the more fragile it becomes.
________________________________________
Why I Warned About a Steep Correction
• Yesterday, I flagged the risk of a sharp pullback. My stop loss was triggered, yes, but my conviction hasn’t changed. If anything, the higher Gold pushes, the more probable and violent the correction could be.
• The daily chart says it all: since the local bottom around 3300, Gold has moved almost vertically higher.
• From 26 August onward, with the sole exception of the 4 September red candle, every single day closed green — and not just small gains, but +1% or more.
This type of move is powerful, but also unsustainable.
________________________________________
Market Psychology at Work
Markets move in cycles of fear and greed, tension and release. A one-sided move — especially a vertical one — compresses tension like a coiled spring. Traders get trapped:
• Late buyers rush in from FOMO, convinced “it will never stop going up.”
• Sellers get squeezed, forced to cover, adding fuel to the fire.
• But eventually, when there’s no one left to buy at higher prices, even a small wave of selling can cascade into a steep correction.
This is why not even Bitcoin, in its glory days, could sustain vertical rises for long. The pattern was always the same: euphoric rise → brutal drop . Gold is no different.
________________________________________
Where We Stand Now
• At the time of writing, Gold trades at 3647, after touching 3660 and marking a new ATH.
• Is this the local top? Hard to say with certainty. But in my book, until we see a strong correction, there is no valid buy trade here.
________________________________________
My Trading Plan
Today, I will look to sell again. Not because I doubt the long-term bullish trend, but because the short-term imbalance is glaring.
A healthy market breathes, and Gold hasn’t exhaled yet.
🚀 Long term: bullish.
⚠️ Short term: vulnerable.
🎯 Until a correction resets the board, my play is on the short side.