Gold awaits PCE | EMA squeeze, big waves aheadXAU/USD – 09/26 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Trump : Announced a 100% tariff on branded drugs if not produced in the US → escalating trade tensions.
PCE tonight : The FED’s most important inflation gauge, key to shaping October rate cut expectations (current probability 91.09%).
The market is in “hold breath” mode, awaiting the PCE spark to decide the next direction.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is squeezed between two winds – short-term EMA pressure and major expectations from PCE.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) remains below EMA 89 (red) → short-term bearish pressure persists, but narrowing gap signals big volatility ahead.
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
3,738 – 3,730
3,718
3,687
3,651
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,755 – 3,773
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
⚡ Sell (scalp at resistance)
Entry: 3,773 – 3,776
SL: 3,783
TP: 3,755 – 3,745 – 3,734
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy Zone 1 (Scalping)
Entry: 3,72x – 3,718
SL: 3,710
TP: 3,750 – 3,769 – 3,776
Buy Zone 2 (Deeper OB)
Entry: 3,685 – 3,683
SL: 3,675
TP: 3,690 – 3,695 – 3,700 – 3,705 – 3,7xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are being squeezed between EMA 34 & 89. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,734 – 3,683) remains the safe dock for sailors to await the big wave. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,773 – 3,776) is raising fierce waves, only suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Tonight’s PCE will be the decisive wind – either pushing the ship beyond 3,78x or forcing it back to retest 3,72x.”
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💬 What do you think? Will Gold break through 3,78x or retest 3,72x first?
Gold
Pay attention to the triangle pattern to determine the direction#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Currently, the overall gold price trend remains within a triangular consolidation pattern. As time progresses, the short-term resistance level has moved to 3750. As usual, to avoid false breakouts, allow for a buffer of around $5. In the European session, pay attention to the suppression of 3750-3755. If it fails to effectively break through 3755, you can continue to short gold. On the contrary, once it stabilizes above 3755, wait for a pullback and go long. Support levels to watch are 3730-3720. For short-term trading, adopt a buy-low, sell-high strategy within the 3750-3720 range, with profit targets of $10-$30, until the triangle pattern is broken. It is also worth noting that 3710-3700 below is still the key support. If it breaks through the 3720 triangle boundary, you can hold a short position and expect a decline, but do not chase the short position too much.
Gold under EMA pressure Buy at support,short scalp at resistance🟡 XAU/USD – Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
FED : Probability of a 25bps cut in October is 91.09% → almost certain.
US Calendar today : GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and especially speeches from 3 FED officials → strong volatility expected.
Gold yesterday : Dropped deeply but reacted precisely at key support → according to Vincent, this sell-off was mainly due to investors being cautious ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Short-term waves are pressured by EMAs, but the bigger voyage remains bullish – sailors prioritize Buy at Golden Harbor, only Quick Boarding 🚤 when facing Storm Breaker.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H30, EMA 34 & EMA 89)
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) crossing below EMA 89 (red) → short-term bearish signal.
Trend : Overall still bullish, with Bullish OBs and Buy Zones below acting as strong supports.
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,769 – 3,777 (Bearish OB)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
3,734 – 3,718 (Bullish OB)
3,687 – 3,685 (Buy Zone OB)
3,650 – 3,648 (Deeper Buy Zone, confluence with EMA 89)
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
⚡ Sell (short-term scalp)
Entry: 3,776 – 3,773
SL: 3,783
TP: 3,770 – 3,765 – 3,760 – 3,755 – 3,750
✅ Buy (main priority)
Buy Zone 1 (OB)
Entry: 3,687 – 3,685
SL: 3,678
TP: 3,700 – 3,705 – 3,710 – 3,715 – 3,720
Buy Zone 2 (Deeper OB)
Entry: 3,650 – 3,648
SL: 3,638
TP: 3,665 – 3,670 – 3,675 – 3,680 – 3,685
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are facing headwinds from short-term EMAs, but Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,734 – 3,650) remains a solid support dock. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,769 – 3,777) is only suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Tonight, the US sea will bring big waves from data & FED speeches – sailors, tighten your sails and manage trades with discipline.”
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💬 Do you have a different view on Gold? Drop a comment and join the crew discussion!
LiamTrading – XAUUSD Fibo & Volume Profile AnalysisLiamTrading – XAUUSD Today's Scenario: Fibo & Volume Profile Analysis
Gold, after testing the 375x zone, has shown clear signs of weakening. On the H1 frame, the price structure is forming an adjustment phase as it aligns with key Fibonacci and Volume Profile levels. This is the time when the market begins to “filter” liquidity, creating opportunities for both short sell orders and buys at strong support zones.
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci indicates the 0.786 – 1.0 zone around 3756–3758 coincides with strong resistance and FVG, with a high potential for a reversal.
Volume Profile points out the POC zone around 3735–3740; if breached, it will pave the way for deeper downward pressure.
The confluence support zone 0.618 fibo + large volume around 3688–3691 is suitable for scalping buys.
Further, the 3648–3651 area is reinforced by VAL and the volume profile bottom, making it a strong long-term “Buy zone.”
Trading Plan Reference
Sell zone: 3756 – 3758, SL 3763, TP 3750 – 3748 – 3736 – 3710 – 3690 – 3655
Buy scalping: 3688 – 3691, SL 3685, TP 3701 – 3715 – 3728
Long-term Buy zone: 3648 – 3651, SL 3640, TP 3670 – 3688 – 3700 – 3718 – 3733 – 3755
In summary, gold is moving according to the technical structure with confirmation from Fibonacci and Volume Profile. Today's scenario prioritizes observing reactions around the sell zone 3756–3758 to find short opportunities, and waiting to buy at value zones 369x and 365x for the recovery wave.
This is my personal view on XAUUSD. If you want the fastest updates on the next gold scenarios, follow me and join the community to not miss out.
Gold Elliott Wave Outlook: Possible Wave 4 CorrectionGold Elliott Wave Analysis: Potential Wave 4 Correction Toward $3,650
The price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently shown signs of completing its third Elliott wave around the $3,720 region. According to Elliott Wave analysis for gold, this level may have marked the peak of Wave 3, and the market could now be setting up for a Wave 4 correction. The minimum retracement target for this corrective move appears to be in the $3,650 support zone. However, the ascending trendline remains intact, which means entering a short position prematurely—before a decisive break of the trendline—still carries significant risk.
Elliott Wave Perspective
In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 typically represents a corrective phase following the strong impulsive move of Wave 3. These corrections often retrace into previously consolidated zones, creating a buying opportunity before Wave 5 emerges. In this case, the highlighted box around $3,650 represents the most probable demand zone where buyers could step back in.
The critical factors to watch on the chart are:
Whether gold can hold above the rising green trendline. A confirmed breakdown would significantly increase bearish momentum.
If gold fails to reclaim and sustain the $3,720 level, sellers may gain confidence and push prices lower.
The $3,650 area is both a psychological and technical support, making it an ideal candidate for the bottom of Wave 4.
Keywords for SEO: gold Elliott Wave analysis, wave 4 correction, gold price forecast, gold support zone, XAUUSD technical outlook, gold bearish scenario, gold trading strategy
Fundamental Catalysts Supporting a Bearish Outlook
While technical analysis suggests a potential drop, fundamentals also align with the possibility of a correction in gold prices. Several macroeconomic and market factors could act as catalysts for a decline from $3,720 toward $3,650.
Stronger U.S. Economic Data
Recent data releases from the United States have shown resilience in the economy. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth or consumer spending could push the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer. This hawkish outlook would support the U.S. dollar, making gold less attractive as a non-yielding asset.
Rising Real Yields
Gold has no yield, so its attractiveness declines when real interest rates rise. If U.S. Treasury yields continue to move higher while inflation expectations remain anchored, real yields will climb. This environment historically creates downward pressure on gold.
Strength in the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been consolidating near higher levels. A renewed surge in the dollar would make gold more expensive for foreign buyers, limiting demand and contributing to downside pressure.
Weak Physical Demand from Asia
Physical demand from key gold-buying nations like China and India remains a major factor. Recent reports indicate that China’s gold imports via Hong Kong fell by nearly 39% compared to the previous month, signaling weakening appetite. This reduction in demand could remove an important support pillar for gold prices.
ETF Outflows and Reduced Speculative Interest
Gold ETFs and futures often amplify momentum. If speculative capital continues to exit the market, price declines could accelerate.
Diminished Geopolitical Tensions
Gold acts as a safe-haven asset during crises. However, if global geopolitical risks or inflation fears ease, investor demand for gold could wane, further validating a correction.
Trading Strategy and Risk Management
The current technical setup suggests caution. While the Elliott Wave pattern points toward a corrective move, timing the entry is crucial:
A break below the green uptrend line would confirm bearish momentum and increase the probability of a decline toward $3,650.
Aggressive traders may attempt to short below $3,720 resistance, but conservative traders may prefer waiting for a clean break and retest of the trendline.
Risk management remains essential, as failure of the bearish scenario could lead to a renewed rally above $3,800.
Conclusion: Gold Outlook for Traders
Combining Elliott Wave theory with fundamental drivers, gold appears vulnerable to a Wave 4 correction. A break of the rising trendline could accelerate selling pressure, with a minimum downside target of $3,650. Strong U.S. economic data, rising real yields, weaker physical demand from China, and strength in the U.S. dollar all support this bearish outlook.
Still, traders should remain flexible. Gold remains a safe-haven asset, and renewed geopolitical tensions or dovish central bank commentary could quickly reverse the bearish narrative. For now, monitoring the $3,720 resistance and the green uptrend line will be essential to confirm whether the next move is indeed a correction or just a consolidation before another rally.
Gold 1H – Will Gold Correction Extend Toward Discount Zones?Gold on the 1H timeframe is trading near 3,745 after repeated bearish pushes, with premium resistance clustered at 3,780–3,778 and a secondary resistance zone at 3,748–3,746. Discount demand remains positioned lower at 3,713–3,706 and deeper near 3,665. Recent CHoCH signals confirm short-term bearish pressure, suggesting engineered liquidity sweeps into resistance before potential retracements toward discount levels.
Today’s headlines on renewed U.S. inflation worries and expectations of a slower Fed pivot are weighing on sentiment, while ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions keep safe-haven demand alive. This dynamic may fuel intraday volatility, with liquidity hunts at resistance zones likely before directional clarity develops.
________________________________________
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL GOLD LIQUIDITY 3,780–3,778 (SL 3,787): Premium resistance where sweeps may trigger rejection toward 3,760 → 3,740 → 3,730.
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 3,748–3,746 (SL 3,755): Intraday resistance zone aligned with 0.5–0.618 retracement, offering downside targets at 3,730 → 3,720 → 3,715.
• 🟢 BUY ZONE 3,697–3,699 (SL 3,692): Discount demand in line with liquidity magnets, with upside targets at 3,715 → 3,730 → 3,745+.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Run (3,780–3,778)
• Entry: 3,780–3,778
• Stop Loss: 3,787
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,760
TP2: 3,740
TP3: 3,730
🔻 Sell Setup – Intraday Rejection (3,748–3,746)
• Entry: 3,748–3,746
• Stop Loss: 3,755
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,730
TP2: 3,720
TP3: 3,715
🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand (3,697–3,699)
• Entry: 3,697–3,699
• Stop Loss: 3,692
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,715
TP2: 3,730
TP3: 3,745+
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
With U.S. inflation concerns and geopolitical risks keeping gold under mixed pressure, intraday strategies should focus on fading liquidity grabs into premium resistance while being prepared to buy dips at well-defined discount demand. Expect volatility around 3,780 liquidity sweeps before corrections extend toward the 3,713–3,706 zone.
XAUUSD BUY 3734Here’s a sharp TradingView idea description for your XAUUSD Buy at 3734 setup, tailored for engagement and clarity:
🟢 XAUUSD Buy Setup – Targeting Upside from 3734
Gold is showing bullish momentum after a key support retest near 3734. Price action confirms a potential reversal zone with confluence from:
- 🔹 Fibonacci retracement aligning with 3734 (golden pocket zone)
- 🔹 Bullish engulfing candle on 4H chart
- 🔹 RSI bounce from oversold territory
- 🔹 MACD crossover signaling upward momentum
📈 Trade Plan:
- Entry: 3734
- Stop Loss
- Take Profit Zones
This setup favors a disciplined risk/reward approach. Watch for volume confirmation and news catalysts (e.g., Fed commentary or geopolitical tension) that could accelerate gold’s move.
Gold may bottom out and rebound, are you ready to buy?Referring to the gold trend last week, the market performance in the first three trading days of this week was basically consistent with it, and today's market also continued similar operating characteristics.
The current gold price has fallen back to around 3720, which is the second test of this support area. The previous low briefly dipped below 3720 before rebounding, with gains approaching tens of dollars.
From a technical perspective, this pullback is not a clear signal of a decline, but more likely a phased cleansing of bulls whose positions are not firm by the market, the so-called "washout" behavior. This type of correction helps solidify the upward momentum and creates conditions for a healthy breakout of gold prices to new highs.
Regarding trading strategies, all long positions held during the day have been taken profit. I currently prefer to invest in long positions on dips, with the intention of entering a long position between 3715 and 3725.
The above ideas are my personal opinions. The above ideas are personal opinions. If you have a better trading strategy, please leave a message in the comment area and let’s discuss and make progress together!
The trend has not changed, continue to shortAfter yesterday's high-level fluctuations, gold prices retreated significantly in the US market due to news, hitting a low near 3717.
Yesterday's daily gold price closed in the red, with the MA5 moving average near 3735. If today's daily closing price falls below the MA5 and reaches the MA10, bears will regain control of the market. Looking at the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, after breaking below the middle line, the price has fluctuated, briefly stabilizing near 3735. Currently, it is consolidating sideways, but if the European/US session breaks below 3735-3720, further declines to 3710-3700 are possible. The short-term downward trend is still under pressure and the market is in a weak state. Therefore, intraday gold trading is still mainly short selling, with long buying as an auxiliary.
The main pressure range above is 3750-3765. If the rebound touches the upper resistance range without breaking it, you can continue to short gold. The short-term support is at 3735-3720 below. If it falls back but does not break through, you can go long with a light position. Strong support focuses on the previous top and bottom conversion of 3710-3700.
Gold (XAUUSD) – Technical Outlook
🔴Bearish Scenario (Downtrend)
*Pivot Level: 3759
* If price trades below 3759, downside momentum may develop.
* 🎯 First target: 3736 (key support)
* If 3736 breaks strongly → continuation lower.
* 🎯 Second target: 3700
🟢Bullish Scenario (Uptrend)
* If price holds above 3759, upside momentum is likely.
* 🎯 First target: 3791 (previous major high)
* If 3791 breaks with strength → full bullish continuation.
* 🎯 Next upside targets: 3810 → 3830
Do I need to close the long gold position I bought at 3740?The instruction was issued an hour ago. The text clearly explains the buying bullish operation idea, which is to go long based on the signal that the gold price breaks through the short-term resistance level of $3,740.
Based on the current market price, long orders entered at $3,740 have achieved an increase of approximately $10. For investors with more conservative risk appetite, they may consider partially reducing their positions or taking profits. I plan to hold my current position. The gold price will face the next key pressure level of $3,760 in the future. If it breaks through effectively, it is expected to rise further. Specific operations will be adjusted dynamically according to market trends to maintain flexibility.
I'd be honored if you agree with this idea! If you have your own opinions, please leave a comment in the comment section. I look forward to seeing your ideas and sharing them with you!
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Analysis – September 25, 2025 (H1)Market Overview:
Gold recently experienced a strong bullish breakout from the previous consolidation zone around 3,640 – 3,700. The upward momentum pushed prices toward the 3,780 resistance area, where the market is currently forming a corrective phase.
The H1 chart shows a potential ABC corrective pattern:
Wave A indicates the initial pullback from the recent highs.
Wave B marks a likely support around 3,730 – 3,720, a key intraday demand zone.
Wave C projects a continuation toward the resistance zone near 3,780 – 3,790, completing the correction.
- Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone (B): 3,720 – 3,730. Strong intraday buyers are expected here, confirmed by volume clusters in previous sessions.
Resistance Zone (C): 3,780 – 3,790. Price may face significant selling pressure; a breakout above this level could extend the bullish trend.
Intermediate Pivot: 3,752 – 3,755. Watch for short-term reversals or consolidation around this level.
- Long Opportunity:
Enter near 3,725 – 3,730 if the market shows bullish reversal signals (pin bars, bullish engulfing, or EMA bounce).
Target 3,780 – 3,785 with a stop-loss below 3,715.
Short-Term Scalps:
If price struggles near 3,760, consider scalps targeting 3,730 – 3,735 with tight stops above 3,765.
Trend Confirmation:
EMA crossovers (H1) and RSI above 50 confirm bullish continuation.
RSI approaching overbought (~70) may indicate short-term pullback or consolidation.
- Insight:
Gold is at a delicate corrective stage. Confirmed reversal signals at support (B) will likely trigger a strong wave C toward resistance. Traders should remain patient, respecting intraday volatility and waiting for clear confirmation before entering trades.
Gold Trading Plan: Holding Steady Ahead of Key Data📊 Market Context
Gold is trading steady around $3,760 in early Wednesday’s Asian session.
Traders continue to price in expectations of two more Fed rate cuts (October & December) after the 25 bps cut earlier this month.
The US PCE inflation report for August, due Friday, will be the key event that could set the tone for gold’s next big move.
With strong bullish sentiment intact but near-term correction risks in play, today’s focus will be on reaction levels within the Fibonacci zones.
🔢 Technical Levels (Chart H1)
🔴 Resistance / SELL Zone
3,829–3,838 (Fibo 1.5–1.618) → Strong reaction zone where price could face rejection and trigger a pullback.
🟡 Intermediate Resistance
3,777 (50% retracement of short-term correction) → Minor supply area to watch.
🟢 Support Zones / BUY Areas
3,735–3,740 → Short-term support, key for uptrend continuation.
3,710–3,700 (Fibo 50–60% retracement) → Important bullish reaction point, high-probability buy zone if tested.
📈 Trade Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Setup
BUY: Look for confirmation at 3,735–3,740 or deeper support 3,710–3,700.
Targets: 3,777 → 3,829–3,838.
Stop Loss: Below 3,690 to protect against deeper correction.
2️⃣ Countertrend SELL Setup
SELL: Enter shorts only at 3,829–3,838 with strong rejection signals.
Targets: 3,777 → 3,740.
Risk Note: Treat as a tactical short within a larger bullish bias.
⚠ Key Notes
Expect sideways-to-bullish bias until Friday’s US PCE inflation report sparks higher volatility.
Use smaller sizing near resistance and confirm entries with candlestick signals.
Avoid mid-range trades between 3,760–3,777 to reduce noise risk.
💬 Community Discussion
📊 Will gold test the upper reaction zone at 3,829–3,838 before PCE data, or dip to the 3,710 buy zone first? Share your charts and strategies in the comments!
XAUUSD – The SELL trend has been confirmed
Technical Analysis
After a strong rise hitting the resistance zone of 3770–3780, gold (XAUUSD) couldn't maintain momentum and started forming consecutive declines. This signals that selling pressure is dominating in the short term.
The 3767–3769 zone coincides with local resistance, a place where the market has reacted multiple times → confirming its role as a distribution zone.
Fibonacci Retracement levels from the latest upward wave show the 0.618 zone around 3700–3705 acts as short-term support, where technical rebound reactions may occur.
The 3673–3675 zone confluences with Fib 2.618 and EMA200 → strong support, considered the main Buy zone for long-term buyers.
RSI (14) is currently below 50, momentum leans towards decline, confirming the adjustment trend is prevailing.
Trading Scenario
SELL Scenario (trend-following priority):
Entry: 3767–3769
SL: 3775
TP: 3755 – 3740 – 3733 – 3710 – 3694
Buy scalping scenario (short-term support reaction):
Entry: 3701–3704
SL: 3698
TP: 3710 – 3722 – 3736
Buy zone scenario (priority for medium-term rebound):
Entry: 3673–3675
SL: 3666
TP: 3688 – 3696 – 3705 – 3720 – 3736
Price zones to watch
3767–3769: important resistance, priority Sell zone.
3700–3705: short-term support, potential Buy scalping area.
3673–3675: main Buy zone, confluence of support + Fibonacci.
3694 and 3736: important intermediate levels, where partial profit-taking is recommended.
The main short-term trend is leaning towards SELL, however, important support zones may provide opportunities for counter-trend Buys or trend-following Buys after price adjustments.
This is a reference scenario based on resistance – support and Fibonacci. Follow me if you love trading gold and want to read the latest analyses in the community.
Bullish bounce for the Gold?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a swing high resistance.
Pivot: 3,699.30
1st Support: 3,654.40
1st Resistance: 3,784.06
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold shakes violently | Priority Buy on dip to support🟡 XAU/USD – 24/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Geopolitics : Trump unexpectedly supported Ukraine reclaiming full territory and called on NATO to be tougher on Russia → defensive sentiment returned, supporting Gold.
US Economy : Housing data due today, no FED speeches.
Earlier: Weak US PMI + dovish FED tone → no momentum for a prolonged downtrend.
Price Action : Gold dropped more than 20 points overnight, then quickly rebounded to 3,76x → likely profit-taking pressure at higher levels.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Main trend stays bullish, but the voyage will remain choppy as Gold absorbs profit-taking near resistance.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (M45)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Buy Scalp OB: 3,754 – 3,757
OB Harbor: 3,741 – 3,744
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
Sell Scalp Zone: 3,797 – 3,800
Higher Sell Zone: 3,813 – 3,815
Market Structure
After the deep drop, Gold rebounded and held above 3,76x.
Bullish trend remains intact, but waves of volatility may occur near higher resistance zones.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority)
Buy Scalp OB
Entry: 3,754 – 3,757
SL: 3,747
TP: 3,762 – 3,767 – 3,772 – 3,777 – 3,782
Buy Zone OB
Entry: 3,741 – 3,744
SL: 3,732
TP: 3,749 – 3,754 – 3,759 – 3,764 – 3,769
⚡ Sell (short scalp – lower RR)
Sell Scalp Zone
Entry: 3,797 – 3,800
SL: 3,806
TP: 3,795 – 3,790 – 3,785 – 3,780 – 3,775
Higher Sell Zone
Entry: 3,813 – 3,815
SL: 3,823
TP: 3,810 – 3,805 – 3,800 – 3,795 – 3,790
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden ship rocked violently overnight but still anchored firmly at Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,754 – 3,741) . Profit-taking waves may still rise at Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,797 – 3,815) , suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Yet the main voyage continues north – Buy the Dip remains the compass to follow the strong winds.”
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💬 Got your own view on Gold? Share it in the comments and join the crew discussion!
XAUUSD – Pressure at 3777 zone XAUUSD – Pressure at 3777 zone, adjustment scenario and trend-following buy
Technical Analysis
After a strong upward move, gold (XAUUSD) is now approaching the resistance zone of 3777–3780, where it converges with the Fibonacci expansion cluster and the old resistance structure. This is a price area prone to short-term selling pressure, and a decisive point for the next trend.
EMA200 (H1: 3685) is still clearly sloping upwards → the main trend remains upward, but the market is in a state of range expansion, with a potential adjustment phase before continuing upward.
RSI (14) is currently oscillating around 57–60, indicating that the upward momentum has cooled, not yet entering the overbought zone but posing a risk of divergence if a new peak is formed without accompanying momentum.
Volume Profile levels and support zones 3738–3740 / 3719–3722 / 3661–3665 will be where buyers can react to protect the main trend.
Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Sell adjustment at resistance zone:
Entry: 3777–3780
SL: 3784
TP: 3755 – 3742 – 3730 – 3705
Scenario 2 – Short-term scalping buy:
Entry: 3738–3740
SL: 3734
TP: 3747 – 3755 – 3770
Scenario 3 – Trend-following buy (priority when deep adjustment):
Entry: 3719–3722
SL: 3715
TP: 3728 – 3740 – 3765 – 3780
Price Zones to Watch
3777–3780: critical resistance, potential Sell zone.
3738–3740: nearby support, suitable for scalping buy.
3719–3722: main Buy zone for recovery, confluence of support structure.
3705: deep support, target if adjustment trend expands.
Outlook
The major trend for gold still leans towards upward, however, the 3777–3780 zone currently plays a decisive role. Sellers can take advantage of short-term Sell to catch the adjustment phase, while buyers should wait for prices to pull back to support zones to enter trend-following orders.
This is a reference scenario based on technical analysis, not an investment recommendation. Stay tuned for earlier analyses and prepare well for your trading plan.
GOLD TREND TODAY - Support and Resistance - Simple Analysis📈 Trend & Market Structure OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold is still in a clear uptrend, respecting higher highs and higher lows on H4.
Recent breakout structures (BOS) confirm bullish order flow, but price is approaching a liquidity zone near $3,800.
On the downside, unmitigated Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and Order Blocks (OB) remain potential buy zones if price retraces.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 3800 – 3830
Support: 3765 – 3760 – 3755
Liquidity Buy Zone: 3715 – 3712
📌 Trade Ideas
🔴 SELL Setup (Countertrend / Scalping)
Entry: 3855 – 3858
Stop Loss: 3863
Take Profit:
TP1: 3850
TP2: 3840
TP3: 3820
TP4: 3800
Open TP: 3780
🟢 BUY Setup (Trend-following / SMC zones)
Entry: 3715 – 3712 (Liquidity + Strong OB)
Stop Loss: 3705
Take Profit:
TP1: 3725
TP2: 3735
TP3: 3755
TP4: 3775
Open TP: 3800
🎯 Strategy Note
Main bias: Look for buys on retracements in line with the uptrend.
Shorts at 3855 – 3858 are countertrend scalps only; use tight stops.
Apply scalping entries once price reacts at the defined S/R levels with confirmation (candlestick rejection, BOS, or volume shift).
Always use SL/TP for risk management.
⚡ Gold remains bullish overall; the plan favors buy opportunities from demand zones, while countertrend shorts should be quick and managed tightly.
Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Technical Analysis – H1Price Action & Trend
Gold has recently broken out of a sideways consolidation range (boxed area around 3,620–3,680 USD), showing strong bullish momentum.
The upward move peaked near the resistance zone around 3,780–3,790 USD, where selling pressure emerged.
Price is currently forming a potential ABC correction pattern:
(A) – initial retracement from the peak.
(B) – minor rebound, lower than previous highs.
(C) – projected continuation downward, suggesting further correction.
Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: 3,780–3,790 USD (recent swing high).
Immediate Support: 3,700 USD (minor psychological level and previous consolidation top).
Key Support: 3,660–3,670 USD (near lower bound of previous consolidation box, potential ABC (C) target).
Indicators & Technical Tools
Fibonacci Retracement:
0.382 retracement aligns around 3,710–3,715 USD.
0.618 retracement aligns around 3,670 USD, matching the expected (C) target.
Volume:
Slight increase during the upward impulse, but volume has tapered during the current correction, indicating a healthy pullback rather than a trend reversal.
RSI/EMA:
Price has pulled back from overbought conditions. EMA on H1 likely supports near 3,700 USD.
Trading Strategy
Short-term Traders (Intraday):
Consider short positions near 3,750–3,760 USD if ABC (C) continues.
Targets: 3,700 USD first, then 3,670 USD.
Stop-loss: Above recent swing high at 3,780 USD.
Medium-term Traders:
Wait for completion of ABC correction before entering long positions.
Strong buying opportunity near 3,660–3,670 USD with confirmation candle patterns.
Trend-followers:
Look for break above 3,780 USD with strong volume to resume the bullish trend.
Summary:
Gold is in a corrective phase after hitting a strong resistance zone. The ABC correction suggests that price may retest support around 3,670 USD before resuming the uptrend. Fibonacci and previous consolidation levels provide clear zones for entries, stops, and profit-taking.
Gold Continues to Probe for New Highs.👋Hello everyone, what do you think about the trend of OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Gold continued its upward momentum on Tuesday, reaching a new record high near 3800 USD. Persistent geopolitical tensions, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, and signs of weakness in major economies in Europe and the U.S. seem to be sustaining investor interest in the precious metal.
At the time of writing, gold is hovering around 3765 USD, undergoing a slight pullback, but the overall trend still supports further gains. From a technical perspective, I believe that after this correction, we could see higher price movements. The immediate target is to reclaim the 3790 USD level, followed by 3800 USD, and if conditions remain favorable, we could push even higher, as long as no deep corrections occur.
💬What do you think about gold? Feel free to share your views in the comments, I'm looking forward to your feedback!
Good luck!
XAU/USD: Uptrend and Key Resistance ChallengeHello everyone, today I would like to share a short analysis of gold (XAU/USD) and its current market behaviour.
At present, on the H4 chart, gold is trading around $3,756, maintaining a clear upward trajectory. The bullish channel remains intact and the price is positioned above the Ichimoku cloud, confirming that buyers are still in control. However, the $3,765–$3,780 zone has emerged as an important resistance level that gold needs to break in order to extend the rally.
From a technical perspective, Fair Value Gaps (FVG) are becoming increasingly relevant. On the upside, the $3,765–$3,780 range represents strong resistance, while on the downside, $3,725–$3,740 is seen as dynamic support in case of a pullback. Trading volume has also surged as gold broke previous highs, indicating strong buying pressure remains in place.
On the news front, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid ongoing global uncertainties. Moreover, upcoming US economic data, such as Durable Goods Orders and Core PCE, will have a significant impact on the dollar. Should these figures come in weaker than expected, USD weakness would further reinforce gold’s bullish momentum.
Based on both technical factors and news flow, I expect gold to maintain its bullish bias in the short term. However, much will depend on whether support around $3,740 holds and if resistance levels at $3,780 and $3,800 can be decisively broken.
XAUUSD Setup: Overbought Conditions Signal a Potential Pullback!OANDA:XAUUSD Price is approaching a key resistance zone at the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This boundary often acts as a natural barrier where the market tends to slow down or reverse. As price reaches the channel top, the probability of a correction increases as profit-taking pressure builds.
If a correction unfolds, the 3,715 USD level will be the key support to watch. The resilience of buyers around this zone will determine whether the uptrend can extend further and push prices beyond previous highs. On the other hand, if 3,715 is broken, the market could shift direction with price sliding deeper toward the lower boundary of the channel and temporarily putting buyers at a disadvantage.
What matters most now is not rushing into trades but observing carefully. The market always leaves clues through price action, candlestick formations and trading volume. When these elements align, confirmation becomes stronger and that is the moment when a setup carries real weight. Above all, risk management remains essential because it is the shield that allows traders to withstand uncertainty and seize opportunities with confidence.
Good luck and trade safe!