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Gold Bulls in Control — Eyes on $4,200 Breakout📰 Key Fundamental Drivers Gold remains elevated above $4,100/oz, consolidating after recent surges. Safe-haven demand is strong, supported by persistent U.S.-China tensions and global economic uncertainty. Market expectations for Fed cuts remain robust, with ~99% chance priced in for October and ~94% for December. Institutional flows (ETF & central banks) continue to add structural support. Some caution from Fed officials about inflation and pacing of cuts could moderate upside in the near term. 📈 Technical & Price Structure Support zones to watch: ~$4,100 → ~$4,050 → ~$4,000 Resistance / upside targets: $4,200 → $4,300 → $4,400+ Gold is in a strong uptrend, but short-term momentum is overextended. A pullback or consolidation is healthy and expected. If price holds above support, the upside bias remains intact. A break below $4,000 would be an early warning. 🎯 Bias & Trade Strategy Bias: Bullish overall, with caution in the short term. Trade ideas: Buy on pullbacks into support zones (e.g. $4,050–$4,100) with tight stops. Breakout longs if price decisively clears $4,200. Scalp / reaction shorts near resistance zones if rejection patterns appear. Pay attention to upcoming U.S. data, Fed commentary, and any sudden USD strength as risk factors. ⚠️ Risk Note Risk only 1–2% per trade Confirm setups with volume/candle patterns Avoid over-leveraging — gold volatility remains high 📌 For educational purposes only – Trade Smart. Athens
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AthensBySahan
1
Gold (xauusd): still bullishHello guys! Gold (XAU/USD) is showing a strong bullish trend on the 30-minute chart, but we can see that the upward trendline has recently been broken. Despite this, the price is approaching a key support zone between 4,086 and 4,058 (highlighted in blue), which has held as a strong buying area in the past. Currently, the market could play out in two scenarios: Blue scenario – A shallow pullback from the current price down to the support zone, followed by a rebound. Red scenario – A slightly deeper retracement, touching the lower end of the support zone before buyers step in. In both cases, this support area is likely to act as a strong demand zone, providing a good opportunity to enter long positions . The overall bullish trend remains intact, so the expectation is that after this retracement, the price will continue upward toward 4,180 and beyond. ✅ Key levels to watch: Support: 4,086 – 4,058 Resistance: near 4,180 (next target) Trading plan: Wait for the price to approach the blue support area and look for bullish confirmation (reversal candlestick, bullish engulfing, or strong buying volume) to enter long positions. Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSD
by melikatrader94
21
Gold as a Safe Haven Asset During Market Uncertainty1. The Historical Role of Gold as a Store of Value Gold’s reputation as a safe haven asset is deeply rooted in history. Long before modern currencies were created, gold was used as money due to its rarity, durability, and universal acceptance. Empires and civilizations—from the Romans to the Chinese—recognized its intrinsic value. Unlike paper currencies, which can lose value due to inflation or political manipulation, gold has maintained its purchasing power over centuries. This enduring legacy has built investor confidence, making gold the ultimate hedge against economic collapse or monetary instability. 2. Gold’s Relationship with Inflation and Currency Devaluation One of the key reasons investors flock to gold during uncertainty is its ability to preserve value during inflationary periods. When central banks print excess money or economies experience hyperinflation, the real value of currency declines. Gold, on the other hand, cannot be printed or artificially inflated. Its supply grows slowly through mining, keeping its scarcity intact. Historically, during times of high inflation—such as the 1970s oil crisis—gold prices surged as investors sought protection from declining fiat currency values. 3. Gold’s Performance During Financial Crises Gold tends to perform strongly during financial market crises. For instance, during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, stock markets around the world plummeted, yet gold prices surged from around $700 to over $1,200 per ounce in the following years. Investors shifted their capital from volatile equities and collapsing real estate markets into gold as a safer store of wealth. Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when uncertainty and market panic dominated, gold reached a record high of over $2,000 per ounce, reinforcing its role as a safe haven asset in times of chaos. 4. Gold’s Role in Portfolio Diversification In investment strategy, diversification is key to managing risk. Gold often acts as an effective hedge because it has a low or even negative correlation with traditional asset classes like equities or bonds. When markets are in turmoil, stocks often decline, but gold tends to rise or remain stable. By including gold in a portfolio, investors can reduce volatility and overall risk exposure. Institutional investors, mutual funds, and even central banks include gold as a strategic component to ensure portfolio stability during downturns. 5. Gold as a Hedge Against Geopolitical Risk Geopolitical instability—such as wars, trade conflicts, or political crises—creates uncertainty in global markets. During such times, currencies fluctuate, stock indices decline, and investor confidence weakens. Gold often becomes the preferred asset during these events because it is not tied to any one government or economy. For example, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, global demand for gold increased as investors sought refuge from potential currency devaluation and market disruptions. Its universal acceptance makes it a neutral and borderless asset that retains value regardless of political boundaries. 6. Central Bank Policies and Their Impact on Gold Central banks play a major role in influencing gold prices. When central banks adopt expansionary monetary policies—such as lowering interest rates or increasing money supply—gold prices often rise. Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. Additionally, when central banks themselves buy gold, it signals trust in its long-term value. In recent years, emerging economies like China, India, and Russia have increased their gold reserves to diversify away from U.S. dollar dependence, strengthening gold’s status as a global reserve asset. 7. Investor Psychology and Market Sentiment Gold’s appeal is not just economic—it’s psychological. During times of fear or uncertainty, investors instinctively move toward tangible assets that they can trust. Gold’s physical nature and intrinsic value give it emotional security that paper assets lack. This “flight to safety” effect means that when news of market instability spreads, investors collectively buy gold, driving up its price. This psychological factor reinforces the cycle of gold appreciation during uncertain times, as more people seek safety in an asset they perceive as stable and permanent. 8. Gold vs. Other Safe Haven Assets While gold is the most well-known safe haven asset, others—like the U.S. dollar, Swiss franc, or U.S. Treasury bonds—also attract investors in crises. However, gold holds unique advantages. Unlike currencies, which can be manipulated through monetary policy, gold’s value is independent of any central authority. It is also free from credit risk, meaning it cannot default like bonds. Furthermore, unlike real estate or commodities like oil, gold is highly liquid and portable. This makes it an ideal asset for immediate protection and long-term wealth preservation during global financial stress. 9. Technological and Industrial Demand Supporting Gold Prices Beyond its financial role, gold has growing industrial and technological applications, especially in electronics, renewable energy, and medical devices. Its conductivity and resistance to corrosion make it a critical material in high-tech industries. This real-world demand adds a fundamental layer of value to gold, ensuring that its price is not solely dependent on investor sentiment. Jewelry demand—especially from countries like India and China—also supports its global market stability. Together, these factors create a strong baseline for gold prices, even when financial markets are calm. 10. The Future Outlook for Gold as a Safe Haven Looking ahead, gold’s role as a safe haven is expected to remain strong. In a world marked by rising geopolitical tensions, digital currency volatility, and potential economic slowdowns, investors will continue viewing gold as a stabilizing force. The rise of digital gold and gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has made it easier for retail investors to participate in the gold market. Moreover, as global debt levels rise and faith in fiat currencies weakens, the demand for gold is likely to persist. Even in an increasingly digital economy, gold’s timeless appeal as a tangible, limited, and universally trusted asset ensures its continued relevance. Conclusion Gold’s reputation as a safe haven asset is well-deserved and time-tested. It offers protection against inflation, currency devaluation, market volatility, and geopolitical instability. Its scarcity, universal acceptance, and psychological comfort make it a unique hedge in uncertain times. Whether held by individuals, institutions, or central banks, gold continues to shine as a reliable symbol of stability and security. In a global economy where uncertainty is the only constant, gold stands as a timeless reminder that true value endures beyond market cycles and monetary systems. For investors seeking long-term security amid financial turbulence, gold remains the ultimate safeguard of wealth.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
Gold is strong. 4200 is not far away.Gold continued its upward trend after the Asian market opened on Tuesday. It reached a high near 4180 in the European session before plummeting, quickly falling back to around 4090 before continuing its upward trend. This marked a distinct bottoming-out and rebound pattern, causing significant market volatility. Wednesday's Asian market opened with a continuation of Tuesday's trend, reaching a new all-time high near 4191, once again approaching the 4200 mark. Gold's current pattern makes bears vulnerable to the powerful bulls, leaving short-term bears in despair. Gold continues its upward trend, with a remarkably strong daily chart, giving the market continued hope for a bullish outlook. The previous gains were excessive, and any pullback would be far greater than we had anticipated. Tuesday's drop is a case in point. Although it was merely a market correction, it led many traders to believe the bull trend was over. However, this was not the case. The price pullback merely provided an opportunity to go long, and the bravest traders are already enjoying the rewards. Overall, the current trend remains strong. Barring any negative news regarding gold, the overall strategy remains to buy on pullbacks, with an eye on new highs. Trading Strategy: Go long on pullbacks near 4150, with a stop-loss at 4135. Profit range: 4080-4190-4200. For aggressive trading, go long in batches between 4160-65. When the price first hits 4195, you can try shorting with a small position, which can yield a profit of 15-20 pips.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market_Trader1
Gold hits new highs again. Latest analysis.Gold prices continued their upward trend in early Asian trading on Wednesday, reaching new highs. After hitting a record high of 4179 on Tuesday, bullish profit-taking triggered a nearly $90 drop, reaching as low as 4090. Although prices retreated below 4100, bargain-hunting quickly helped gold extend its upward trend. Gold's continued rise is driven by a combination of safe-haven demand, the Federal Reserve's dovish shift, and a weaker dollar. Factors ranging from the trade war to falling bond yields and the dollar's decline in the foreign exchange market are pushing gold prices toward higher peaks. In the short term, the international trade situation may be a key variable; if signals of a reconciliation emerge, gold prices could experience a correction. Gold's trend structure remains intact, with the daily chart closing in a bullish trend. The 10-day and 7-day moving averages remain upward, retreating close to the 5-day moving average at 4083 on Tuesday. After stabilizing at 4090, prices regained support. The short-term chart maintains an intact ascending channel, with the Bollinger Bands opening upward and the price extending along the upper middle band. Trading Strategy: Go long near 4145, with a stop-loss at 4130. Profit range: 4180-4200. Short with a small position if the price first touches 4195, with profit targets focused around 4150. Key Levels: First Support: 4135, Second Support: 4110, Third Support: 4090 First Resistance: 4185, Second Resistance: 4195, Third Resistance: 4200
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market_Trader1
Explosive Battle Ahead — Can Gold Smash Through 4180 Again?Gold retreated $90 from 4180 to around 4090, then hit the 4100-4090 area twice before rebounding, and is currently consolidating around 4150. Although the short-term retracement of gold is not small, it is obvious that it has not destroyed the upward trend and pattern structure. However, it has exacerbated market differences to a certain extent and also increased short-term volatility. First, 4160 represents the 23.6% retracement level. Next, we must closely monitor two areas. First, 4160 represents the 23.6% retracement level of the recent short-term rally. If gold fails to break through this area during its subsequent rebound, it could form a technical M-shaped double top with the 4180 high in the short term, favoring a downward trend for gold and potentially leading to a further correction. Second, we must pay close attention to the area around 4125, which represents the 61.8% retracement level of the recent short-term rally. If gold remains above 4125 during its subsequent pullback, it indicates that the bullish trend in gold has not ended and that it may continue to reach new highs. Based on the above considerations, regarding short-term trading: 1. First, we can consider shorting gold in small quantities in the 4150-4160 area, and then patiently wait for gold to retrace. 2. Once gold retreats to the 4125-4115 area, we can try to go long again, and then patiently wait for gold to rebound further, or even retest the recent high near 4180.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WaveRider_Steffen
Gold → How to operate at nightToday, we highlighted the risks in gold’s upward movement. We also guided everyone to enter short positions on gold at high levels based on the intraday trend, and all these positions yielded solid profits. Currently, gold is trading within the 4,090–4,180 range. It has tested the lower end twice but failed to break below the 4,090 support level—this indicates strong buying interest (support) at lower prices, and the sharp drop during the Asian session was likely just profit-taking by funds that entered at high levels. Keep an eye on Fed Chair Powell’s speech in 10 minutes. As mentioned earlier, if Powell echoes the current rhetoric in favor of rate cuts, the bullish momentum will continue, and gold will keep hitting new highs. Conversely, if Powell expresses further resistance to rate cuts—causing market expectations for a Fed rate cut to plummet—gold will test the 4,090 support again. A break below this level may trigger a wave of profit-taking sell-offs, and gold’s bull market will come to a complete end. Trading Strategy Enter a light short position on gold around the 4,180 level, with a 3-point stop-loss. PS: Stop-losses are a must for news-driven markets; without them, you could easily get trapped if the price breaks out sharply. On the downside, focus on the 4,090 support. If this level is broken, continue to enter short positions on any rebound. For specific trading decisions, please follow my real-time updates. I post my trading ideas and strategies daily. If you lack a plan or clear direction for gold trading and struggle to achieve consistent, stable profits, you can refer to and follow my updates as a reference and guide to help you avoid mistakes.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Matthew_8888
2
W pattern is established and the bullish pattern remain unchangeI have said before that gold is in a fluctuating upward state whether viewed from the weekly or daily charts, and there is no reversal signal. I mentioned in my previous post that from the hourly chart, gold has the prototype of a W shape, and the neckline is at 4145. In the evening of the US session, gold successfully broke through the neckline and touched around 4155. Although the bullish momentum of gold has stagnated slightly after a slow rise, I am still optimistic that gold will reach 4160-4165. If it falls back to around 4145-4135 again, we can still consider trying to go long on gold. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Perfect_Allen
Bullish on gold. A recurring profit-taking?Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia, his first public appearance at a major Fed meeting since last month's policy meeting. The previous meeting revealed significant disagreements among officials on the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts, and Powell's remarks are seen as a crucial moment to fine-tune expectations. Gold prices are consolidating around the 4090-4145 range in the short term, with the 1-hour Bollinger Bands gradually flattening, suggesting another short-term trend shift. Quaid recommends paying attention to the short-term resistance level of 4150. If the price breaks through 4150 strongly, the Bollinger Bands will open upward again and the price may create a new high again. As gold continues to rise strongly, Quaid recommends that the bullish strategy is to go long at 4100-4090, which is a more stable option. The recent volatility is large, so it is better to go long at low levels and establish positions in batches at multiple points to avoid unexpected events that may cause trend changes. If the price breaks through 4150 with great strength, you can still go long when waiting for gold to pull back to around 4140-4130. The profit range is 4180 or above.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market_Trader1
1
10.14Gold bulls continue to exert their strength!!!Gold is currently stabilizing after a broad range-bound consolidation on the 4-hour chart. It experienced an unexpected intraday plunge, but the momentum has been minimal. A rapid intraday rise followed by a sustained decline could present an opportunity for a short position. The price has rebounded after retracing to previous support levels, and the K-line charts are still trading above the short-term moving average, suggesting a relatively strong trend in the short term. There are currently no significant technical patterns on the hourly chart. On the smaller timeframes, pressure is building on the short-term moving average, maintaining a weak trend. There may be some room for correction in the short term. Focus on the support level around 4005 in the short term.
TVC:GOLDLong
by AnalystDavid_
1
Gold remains strong. Should we continue to go long?After hitting an all-time high of 4179.47, gold fell sharply to around 4090. It is currently bottoming out and fluctuating around 4151. US President Trump's shifting stance on tariffs continues to boost market risk appetite. Coupled with the emergence of bargain-hunting in the US dollar, this has led to profit-taking in gold amidst severely overbought conditions. The economic uncertainty caused by the prolonged US government shutdown, the resurgence of trade tensions, and the risk of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine are likely to continue supporting safe-haven gold, suggesting that gold bears should exercise caution. On Monday, gold began its upward trend from 4025, reaching a high of 4115 in US trading, a 90-point increase. The market did not offer most traders the opportunity to go long on a pullback, and gold continued its upward trend on Tuesday. Undoubtedly, the current trend necessitates a continued bullish stance. Focus on the strong support range of 4100-4080, which is a key support level. If prices fall back into this range, there is no problem maintaining a long position, but it remains to be seen whether prices can break back into this area. From the 1-hour chart, MA5, 10, and 20 gradually converge around 4130, and there are signs of crossing upward. At the same time, this area is also the current position of the middle track of the Bollinger band. In the short term, if the price cannot pull back to the support area near 4100, you can also try to perform long operations around 4130. Quaid believes that if gold begins to rise around 4130, the high around 4180 could be re-broken. Trading Strategy: Buy in batches between 4100 and 4080, with a stop-loss at 4070 and a profit range of 4050-4180. Aggressive Trading: Go long around 4130, with a profit range of 4180 or above.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market_Trader1
Gold prices have not "fallen", only "adjusted" News： During Tuesday's Asian session (October 14th), spot gold retreated sharply from its all-time high of $4,179.47 per ounce, now fluctuating around $4,125 per ounce, near the lower limit of its intraday range. US President Trump's shifting stance on tariffs continued to boost market risk appetite, and coupled with dip-hunting in the US dollar, this prompted profit-taking in gold amidst severely overbought conditions. As Democrats and Republicans continue to blame each other for the government shutdown that began on October 1st, the impasse over the reopening of the US government is expected to continue into its third week. US President Trump reignited the trade war last Friday, threatening 100% tariffs, which continued to provide support for safe-haven gold. In geopolitical terms, the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become another factor contributing to the precious metal's record highs. Specifically: From a technical perspective, the rally over the past seven weeks or so has consistently followed an upward-sloping trendline. Furthermore, after breaking through the $4,055-4,060 resistance area, gold prices have surged past the $4,100 mark, solidifying the short-term bullish outlook for gold. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already showing severe overbought signals, suggesting a period of consolidation before further gains are possible. Any meaningful technical pullback currently could be seen as a buying opportunity. The $4,090-4,078 area provides strong support, but a break below this support level could trigger a technical sell-off. Conversely, if gold successfully forms a double bottom in the $4,090 area, the short-term correction in gold could be over, potentially ushering in a new round of gains. Trading strategy: Buy: 4090-4110-4115, SL: 4078, TP: 4125-4150-4175
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheodoreSilas
2
10.14 Tariffs and interest rate cut expectations resonate!Judging from the current 4-hour chart: 4100 is essentially the current hurdle for gold. It's also the most important support level today. Gold opened today in the 4100-4110 range. Although it recently retreated to around 4090, the real-world price still closed above 4110. If we analyze the trend from last week's low of 3950 to the current 4180 level, we can see that the 618 support level is precisely around 4090. 4090 also happens to be the low point of the recent retracement. According to wave theory, if the retracement does not exceed 618, new highs are inevitable. If it breaks through 4180 again, the next target may be around 4230.
TVC:GOLDLong
by AnalystDavid_
The price has not peaked yet, will the adjustment continue upwarGold plunged sharply in the European session. Is the bull market over? It's too early to say the bull market is over. The price is merely adjusting, a common phenomenon in recent market conditions. Adjustments can occur quickly in a single day, and the last one ended in less than two days. It's time to patiently wait for the correction before continuing to buy gold. Gold prices are already very high, so each correction can fluctuate significantly. Once a correction occurs, it could cause market confusion and lead many traders to believe the bull market is over. But it's not over yet. A pullback in gold still presents an opportunity to go long. Barring any significant negative news, the price will continue to rise after the correction. In the short term, gold will focus on the support near 4090. If gold continues to successfully build a double bottom in the 4090 area, then the short-term adjustment of gold will end and a new round of rise may begin. Trading strategy: Buy in batches between 4100 and 4090, with a stop loss at 4080. Profit range: 4130-4140-4150.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market_Trader1
1
One Step Ahead of the MarketHey guys and girls, Look at this chart, Do you see what I see? (we are heading into a bear market). (RSI= 86, kiss of Death) a chart is worth a thousand words! Technical Section (a top is in place- ABC bear market): Wave 1 = $ 850 Wave 3 = $ 1650 Wave 3 > 1.618 x length of Wave 1----> Wave 5 (Max) = 2.618 x length of Wave 1 (Target = $ 3300) Fundamental (Bearish): Let's look at the reasons: a- Trump's trade war is over; as a result, there is no strong overriding trend. b- Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady Conclusion: The trend is losing momentum and a top is in place. Target = $ 2700 Invalidation level = $ 4170
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BTC-XLM
14
XAUUSD Delivered Excellent profits [ 1600 pips ]Thanks to those traders who followed us and made profits 📈🙏 keep grinding 💪. I booked profits on buying orders during last 2 days session, entering around 4060-and exiting near 4120, while my shorter-term longs hit the 4130 target on today’s Tokyo session hike. Going forward, I’ll continue buying dips from my key entry zones as long as Gold holds above the bullish trend till 4400 Also I took buy 3980 and exit 4130.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Forexmaestro121
Gold’s Bull Run Continues – Target $4,080+Gold is clearly maintaining strong bullish momentum above $4,000. The market has maintained its upward trajectory since rebounding from the $3,900–$3,920 support zone. This zone acted as a solid demand area, leading to consistent higher highs and higher lows — a clear indication that buyers are dominating. The recent price action shows a clean breakout above the $3,980–$4,000 resistance area, which has now turned into a new short-term support. The chart also marks a “Weak High” near the current level, suggesting that a minor pullback or consolidation could occur before another bullish push resumes. This retracement could test around $4,010–$4,020 before aiming higher. The next major resistance levels are visible at $4,060, $4,075, and potentially $4,080–$4,100, which could be the next targets if bullish momentum continues. As long as gold stays above $4,000, the overall market bias remains positive. A sustained break below this zone might trigger a deeper correction toward $3,960 or even $3,940, but that currently looks less likely given the strong bullish structure. In summary, the short-term outlook remains bullish with expectations of a possible brief dip before continuation toward $4,080+. The trendline support and consistent break of minor resistances confirm strong buyer confidence in the market. Strong bullish trend continues Key resistance: $4,072 → $4,132 → $4,150 Support to watch: $3,976 → $3,925 🔹 Buy Zone: A potential buy zone lies between $4,010 – $4,025, where a short retracement is expected before the next upward move. This area aligns with minor structure support and trendline confluence, making it ideal for re-entry or fresh long positions. 🔹 Buy Trigger: A strong buy trigger would be a bullish 1-hour candle closing above $4,045, confirming momentum continuation toward the next resistance targets at $4,065, $4,075, and $4,080+. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh
Gold 1H – Price Reaction Ahead of U.S. Retail Sales & Fed RemarkXAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold is trading around the $4,110 mark, consolidating after a strong impulsive rally earlier this week. Traders are now shifting focus to U.S. Retail Sales data and a series of Federal Reserve remarks due later today — both key drivers that could influence near-term expectations for the next rate decision. After last week’s soft inflation signals, gold initially extended higher, but rising Treasury yields and cautious sentiment ahead of today’s macro releases have slowed momentum. Any hawkish Fed tone or stronger consumer spending data could weigh on XAUUSD, triggering a liquidity sweep from the premium zones before the next accumulation phase begins. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style) • Structure shows a confirmed BOS on lower timeframes, signaling the end of the previous impulsive leg. • Price currently sits within a Mitigation Zone (4117–4110), reacting to prior imbalance after a clean sweep of internal liquidity. • The Premium Liquidity Zone (4217–4215) aligns with a Rejection Block and is likely to act as a short-term Sell Zone. • Below, the 4056–4058 area marks a Buy-Side Support, overlapping with a previous ChoCH and internal discount OB. • Expect a short-term sell reaction from premium zones before a possible bullish mitigation bounce off support. 🔴 Sell Setup: 4217–4215 SL: 4224 TP targets: 4200 → 4175 → 4160 🟢 Buy Setup: 4056–4058 SL: 4050 TP targets: 4070 → 4090 → 4100+ ⚠️ Risk Management Tips • Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS confirmation before executing either setup. • Be cautious during Fed remarks — volatility spikes are common around liquidity levels. • If price reacts impulsively from 4217 with displacement, partial shorts are favored. • Conversely, if 4056 holds and forms clean bullish structure, it could serve as the base for the next expansion leg. ✅ Summary Gold is likely to engineer a liquidity grab in the premium zone (4217–4215) before retracing into the mitigation area near 4056–4058, where smart money may accumulate long positions. The day’s direction will hinge on how markets interpret upcoming U.S. Retail Sales data and Fed tone — expect volatility and false breaks before the true directional move forms.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
7
Gold prices hit a new high, beware of a collapse and fallYesterday, gold opened at 4,002 and surged sharply to a high near 4,116—there’s no doubt the bulls have once again staged an explosive rally of over 100 points. As for the reasons behind this upward move, it’s clear to everyone: first, extremely high market panic triggered a safe-haven-driven rally for gold. Second, gold’s gap-up opening at the start of the session spurred market buyers to chase the bullish momentum. As gold climbed, it attracted a flood of buying interest, which in turn pushed prices even higher. For today, as gold has a tendency to trend in one direction (either bullish or bearish) on such days, how should we decide between going long or short? Gold opened around 4,110, dipped slightly in early trading to a low near 4,106 before rebounding to 4,116, and then consolidated at elevated levels before moving up to around 4,150. The bullish momentum remains formidable—even amid high-level consolidation, the bulls still have lingering strength. Notably, calls for a rate cut from Federal Reserve officials are growing louder, and the probability of a rate cut in October is now nearly a foregone conclusion. This has further fueled market buyers’ enthusiasm for the bullish trend. In particular, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak today. If Powell echoes the current dovish rhetoric about rate cuts, the bullish momentum will likely continue—after all, rate cuts are an enormous boon for gold bulls. In such a scenario, Powell’s comments could prompt the market to increase bets on rate cuts, providing the gold bulls with a steady stream of momentum and driving gold to continue making new all-time highs. However, it’s worth noting that Powell could also surprise by striking a more hawkish tone and pushing back against further rate cuts. The reason is simple: the U.S. government shutdown. Due to the ongoing shutdown, the Fed lacks sufficient economic data to support its decisions, which may leave insufficient justification for a rate cut. Additionally, the current chaos in the U.S. economy and the renewed escalation of tariff tensions have further constrained the Fed’s policy options. Powell previously highlighted the impact of tariffs on Fed policy, so there’s a real possibility his hawkish remarks today could drastically reduce market expectations for a rate cut. If this happens, gold faces significant risk of a sharp collapse. Another point to consider is the timeliness of market news: the explosive impact of any event is temporary and will not drive long-term market trends unless the event itself persists or escalates. Given that gold has rallied from 3,946 last Friday to a recent high of 4,116, the bullish momentum has already been largely priced in. Even if the bulls still have some strength left today, we must remain vigilant against the risk of a sudden reversal and collapse. Furthermore, stock markets have recovered somewhat after their earlier sell-off, and the U.S. dollar has performed relatively well recently. As these assets rebound, market panic surrounding gold should ease slightly, thereby weakening the explosive momentum of the gold bulls. While China-U.S. tariff tensions have reignited, the new tariffs have not yet taken effect, and the future trajectory of this issue remains uncertain. Regarding geopolitical risks, tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, and while there have been threats of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, these have so far been more about intimidation than action. A nuclear escalation, after all, would trigger global panic, and the international community is unlikely to allow the situation to spiral out of control—instead, tensions are expected to de-escalate to some extent. Trading Strategy We remain bullish on the long-term trend but do not recommend chasing highs. Consider entering short positions on gold within the 4,050–4,058 range. For specific trading decisions, please follow my real-time updates. I post my trading ideas and strategies daily. If you lack a plan or clear direction for gold trading and struggle to achieve consistent, stable profits, you can refer to and follow my updates as a reference and guide to help you avoid mistakes.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Matthew_8888
1
Smart Money concept (SMC)📊 Market Breakdown The chart shows a clear institutional move step by step: 1. ChoCh (Change of Character): Market shifted structure, signaling buyers stepping in. 2. BOS (Break of Structure): A strong bullish candle broke previous highs, confirming momentum. 3. OB-15M (Order Block): Price retraced into the 15M order block, collecting liquidity and tapping into institutional demand. 4. Fake Out + Rejection: A false push below structure was created to trap sellers, followed by a sharp rejection—classic liquidity grab. 5. Distribution Phase: After rejection, price expanded upward, entering the distribution zone with strength. 6. Trade Plan: • Entry: 4,090.90 • Stop Loss: 4,072 (protected below support) • Target: 4,140 (next liquidity pool) • R/R: Positive and favorable, aligning with institutional flow. 🌟 Motivational Note “Institutions always leave their footprints. Every ChoCh, BOS, and rejection is a clue that guides us to the next liquidity pool. 🎯 Stay patient, stay disciplined—the market rewards those who trust the process. 🚀🔥” GOOD JOB TRADERS……. ;)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87