Goldprediction
GOLD its continuous buying pattern or something else ???#GOLD .. perfect rise above our expected buying zone that was discussed in our last idea regarding gold and now market just broke his resistance that was on 4229-30
so keep close and sustain above that level can create further volume to upside.
good luck
trade wisely
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Bulls Eye 4285 After 4153 BreakoutAfter a short consolidation phase, gold broke above the 4153 resistance and extended higher, now trading around 4236. A clean break and hold above 4234 could open the path for the next resistance at 4285.
If bullish momentum fades, watch the MA50 for potential dynamic support and the Pullback Zone (4153–4115) for a possible retracement area.
Failure to hold that zone could trigger a deeper move toward lower support levels.
📌Key Levels to watch:
Resistance:
4234
4285
4322
Support:
4197
4153
4115
4074
4027
🔎Fundamental Focus:
Today’s calendar is light on major economic data, but multiple FOMC members are scheduled to speak, which could provide hints on future monetary policy direction.
BREAKING NEWS - GOLD SURGES ABOVE $4,200!🔥 XAUUSD DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS
Wednesday, November 13, 2025
💰 BREAKING NEWS - GOLD SURGES ABOVE $4,200! 🚀
Current Price: $4,187 - $4,210 ⬆️⬆️⬆️
Daily Change: +2% (UP 80+ PIPS!) 📈
Opening Price: $4,127
Today's Range: $4,098 - $4,210
Status: 🟢 STRONG BULLISH MOMENTUM
🎯 WHAT HAPPENED TODAY?
EXPLOSIVE RALLY! Gold has BLASTED through the $4,200 barrier for the first time in THREE WEEKS! This is a massive breakout after consolidating below $4,160 resistance for days.
Why Gold is Surging:
🇺🇸 US Government Shutdown Ending - Senate passed deal, House voting today (7 PM ET)
💵 Dollar Weakness - USD giving back gains, DXY falling to 99.60
📉 Treasury Yields Dropping - 10-year yield falling, boosting gold appeal
💼 Fed Rate Cut Bets SURGING - Now 68% probability for December cut (up from 62%)
📊 Weak Jobs Data - 11,000+ jobs cut weekly through October
🔥 NO CPI DATA TODAY - Government shutdown delayed critical data, creating uncertainty = GOLD UP!
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Market Structure: BULLISH BREAKOUT 🟢🟢🟢
✅ Gold broke above $4,160 resistance with STRONG volume
✅ Price now testing $4,210 - new 3-week high
✅ Bullish trend confirmed - 5 consecutive green days!
✅ All moving averages pointing UP
Key Support Levels (BUY ZONES)
🔵 Support 1: $4,157 - $4,160 (Former resistance, now support - STRONG)
🔵 Support 2: $4,120 - $4,127 (Today's open - Critical)
🔵 Support 3: $4,098 - $4,100 (Today's low - Major)
🔵 Support 4: $4,048 - $4,039 (Breakout base)
Key Resistance Levels (TAKE PROFIT ZONES)
🔴 Resistance 1: $4,210 - $4,220 (Current test)
🔴 Resistance 2: $4,243 - $4,254 (Next target)
🔴 Resistance 3: $4,307 (October channel high)
🔴 Resistance 4: $4,374 - $4,381 (All-time high)
📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS
RSI (14): 67 (Bullish momentum, not overbought yet) ✅
MACD: Strong bullish crossover - BUY signal confirmed ✅
Moving Averages:
Price ABOVE all major EMAs ✅
EMA 20/50/200 all pointing UP ✅
Golden Cross pattern forming ✅
Volume: INCREASING on breakout - Strong conviction ✅
🎯 TRADING STRATEGIES FOR TODAY
SCENARIO 1: CONTINUATION PLAY 🚀 (70% Probability)
IF Gold Holds Above $4,160:
LONG Entry Options:
Aggressive: BUY NOW at $4,187-$4,200
TP1: $4,243 📍 (+56 pips)
TP2: $4,280 📍 (+93 pips)
TP3: $4,307 📍 (+120 pips)
SL: $4,155 (Below breakout level)
Conservative: WAIT for pullback to $4,160-$4,170
TP1: $4,210 📍
TP2: $4,254 📍
TP3: $4,307 📍
SL: $4,140
Risk/Reward: 1:3 ratio minimum ✅
SCENARIO 2: FAKE BREAKOUT 📉 (30% Probability)
IF Gold Breaks Below $4,160:
SHORT Setup:
Entry: Break below $4,157 with volume
Targets:
TP1: $4,127 📍
TP2: $4,098 📍
TP3: $4,048 📍
Stop Loss: $4,175
⚠️ NOTE: This is AGAINST the trend, so smaller position size recommended!
🌍 FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS TODAY
BULLISH FACTORS ⬆️⬆️⬆️
✅ US Shutdown Resolution - Creates positive sentiment but maintains uncertainty
✅ Fed Dovish Pivot - 68% chance December rate cut (was 62% yesterday)
✅ Weak Employment Data - 11,000+ weekly job losses supporting rate cuts
✅ Dollar Weakness - DXY down 0.14% to 99.60
✅ Lower Bond Yields - Making non-yielding gold more attractive
✅ No CPI Data - Delayed economic data = uncertainty = GOLD RALLY
✅ Central Bank Buying - Continuous institutional demand
✅ Consumer Sentiment LOW - Lowest since June 2022 (50.3)
BEARISH RISKS ⬇️
⚠️ Overbought Technically - RSI approaching 70
⚠️ Profit Taking Risk - After +2% move in one day
⚠️ Resistance at $4,210 - Previous highs may cap gains
⚠️ US-China Tensions Easing - Reducing safe-haven premium
🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: EXTREMELY BULLISH
Analyst Targets for End 2025:
Conservative: $4,300
Base Case: $4,400-$4,500
Bullish: $4,700-$5,000 (UBS/Goldman Sachs)
This Week's Targets:
Short term: $4,243-$4,254
Medium term: $4,307
Aggressive: Retest $4,381 all-time high
💡 TODAY'S GAME PLAN
For ACTIVE Traders:
🎯 BUY THE BREAKOUT - If you're aggressive, enter around $4,190-$4,200 with tight stop at $4,155. Target $4,243 first, then $4,280.
For CONSERVATIVE Traders:
⏰ WAIT FOR PULLBACK - Let price retrace to $4,160-$4,170, then enter LONG. This is safer with better risk/reward.
For SCALPERS:
⚡ Trade the Range - If price consolidates between $4,180-$4,210, scalp between these levels with tight stops (15-20 pip targets).
📅 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH
TODAY:
⏰ 7:00 PM ET - US House vote on shutdown (CRITICAL!)
Expect volatility around this news
THIS WEEK:
Fed speakers (watch for rate cut signals)
US economic data releases (delayed but coming)
Government shutdown resolution impact
📊 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS
Current Market Phase: BREAKOUT & EXPANSION 🚀
Gold has successfully broken out of the $4,080-$4,160 consolidation range that held for a week. The move is supported by:
Strong fundamental backdrop
Technical confirmation
Institutional buying
Retail FOMO (fear of missing out)
Key Level: $4,160 is now the LINE IN THE SAND. As long as gold holds above this level, the trend is UP. A close below $4,160 would signal caution.
🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR)
BIAS: 🟢 STRONGLY BULLISH
ACTION: BUY DIPS (Don't chase at $4,210!)
BEST ENTRY: $4,160-$4,170 on pullback
TARGET: $4,243 → $4,307 → $4,374
STOP LOSS: Below $4,155
RISK LEVEL: MEDIUM (High volatility expected)
🔔 TRADING TIPS
✅ Don't Chase - Wait for pullbacks to $4,160-$4,170
✅ Use Stop Loss - ALWAYS protect your capital
✅ Take Partial Profits - Lock in gains at each target level
✅ Manage Risk - Never risk more than 2% per trade
✅ Watch $4,160 - This is your key support now
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES
Position Size: Max 2% of account per trade
Stop Loss: MANDATORY (Never trade without it)
Take Profit: Lock in 50% at TP1, let rest run
Trailing Stop: Once in 50+ pips profit, trail stop
🎯 SWING TRADER SETUP
Entry: $4,160-$4,170 (Wait for pullback)
Target 1: $4,254 (Hold 3-5 days)
Target 2: $4,307 (Hold 1 week)
Target 3: $4,381 (Hold 2-3 weeks)
Stop Loss: $4,120 (Wider for swing trade)
🏆 CONCLUSION
Today is a MAJOR breakout day for gold! The technical and fundamental stars are aligned for continued upside. However, be PATIENT - don't chase the price at $4,210. Wait for a healthy pullback to $4,160-$4,170 for optimal entry.
The trend is YOUR FRIEND - and right now, that trend is pointing UP! 📈🚀
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trading involves significant risk. Always use proper risk management and never risk money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
📱 Follow for daily updates at 8:00 AM
💬 Share your trades in comments
🔔 Hit the bell for real-time alerts
👍 Like if this helped you!
#Gold #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #GoldBreakout #ForexSignals #DayTrading #SwingTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
The bullish trend remains unchanged; we remain bullish on gold.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
The daily chart is above the MA5 moving average, indicating that the bullish trend remains unchanged. However, we do not chase the price at high levels. Our core strategy is to wait for a pullback to support before going long. From the hourly chart, gold is fluctuating within the 4220-4180 range in the short term. If gold retraces to the short-term support of 4190-4180 during the European session, it is advisable to continue to go long on gold, with key support at 4160-4150. If the price rebounds to the previous high of 4250-4260, then yesterday's strategy remains valid.
XAU/USD – Key Levels Ahead of U.S. Data🌐 MARKET CONTEXT
Gold is trading in a pivotal moment as safe-haven demand remains elevated while the Federal Reserve’s future policy path becomes less certain. The recent report noted that gold prices reached over $4,213/oz on November 13, 2025.
Trading Economics
Meanwhile, broader macro commentary highlights that escalating global uncertainty is sustaining gold’s safe-haven appeal.
World Bank Blogs
Sentiment currently:
Risk-on for gold when geopolitical/fiscal concerns intensify or real yields fall.
Risk-off for gold if the USD strengthens or the Fed signals fewer rate cuts than expected.
For the upcoming London → New York sessions: expect heightened sensitivity to U.S. inflation/job data and strong reactions near structural zones. The bias today remains conditionally bullish, but we must remain alert for bearish reversal if price fails at key supply zones.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (SMC + Liquidity Structure)
The price is showing signs of consolidation near major structural zones — this suggests a build-up of liquidity rather than a clean breakout.
Key structure to watch:
If support zones hold and we see a Change of Character (CHoCH) (i.e., lower-low becomes higher‐low) → bullish continuation.
If price reaches a major supply zone and shows a sweep or fake breakout then rejection → potential Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside.
Liquidity zones:
Demand clusters around the 4,081–4,083 and deeper around 3,990–3,988 represent potential absorption/accumulation areas.
Supply is concentrated near 4,080–4,078 (and the newly defined higher sell zone) — watch for liquidity hunt above and returning drop.
Confirmation cues: look for wicked candles, liquidity sweeps, mitigation bars, or M5/M15 structure break before entry.
🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES
4,343 – 4,041 ▶️ Sell Zone – High-range supply cluster where short-bias may apply.
4,121 – 4,123 ▶️ Buy Zone – Structural demand zone for medium-term long setups.
4,081 – 4,083 ▶️ Buy Zone – Intraday demand / reversal potential.
3,990 – 3,988 ▶️ Buy Zone (deep support) – High reward if touched with confirmation.
Stop-loss levels:
Sell stop-loss: 4,349
Buy stop-loss (4,121 zone): 4,115
Buy stop-loss (4,081 zone): 4,075
Buy stop-loss (3,990 zone): 3,982
⚙️ TRADE SETUPS
✅ BUY SCENARIO 1 – STRUCTURAL DEMAND (MID)
Entry: 4,121 – 4,123
Stop-loss: 4,115
TP1: ~4,150 TP2: ~4,190 TP3: Open
Logic: Price returns to demand zone → confirmation required (sweep + rejection) → structural long.
✅ BUY SCENARIO 2 – INTRADAY REACTION DEMAND
Entry: 4,081 – 4,083
Stop-loss: 4,075
TP1: ~4,105 TP2: ~4,140 TP3: Open
Logic: Pull-back into middle zone -> quick reaction long for London session.
⚠️ SELL SCENARIO – SUPPLY REJECTION
Entry: 4,343 – 4,041
Stop-loss: 4,349
TP1: ~4,000 TP2: ~3,950 TP3: ~3,900
Logic: Price into upper supply zone → watch for rejection pattern or liquidity sweep above → short trigger.
🧠 NOTES / SESSION PLAN
Focus on buy setups in London session from 4,081 zone and deeper 3,990 zone.
Shift to sell setup if price moves into 4,343–4,041 and shows rejection during New York session.
Avoid entering immediately before major U.S. economic releases; look for confirmation (M5/M15) after news.
Risk-management: each trade max ~2% account risk; adjust size accordingly. Trail stop once TP1 achieved.
Expect choppy price action and fake moves; patience and structure confirmation are key.
🏁 CONCLUSION
Today’s plan: Bias leans bullish conditionally, with multiple buy zones at 4,121–4,123, 4,081–4,083, and 3,990–3,988 offering structured opportunities. However, a strong sell trigger remains valid at the supply zone 4,343–4,041, if rejection occurs. Trade should be guided by confirmation, strict risk control, and alignment with SMC structure.
XAUUSD: Bullish Continuation Setup from Order BlocksKey Observations and Analysis
Strong Impulsive Move: The chart shows a significant, sharp upward move (a "pump") indicated by a large green candle that broke out of the prior consolidation area (the lower "D / OB" zone). This move highlights strong buying pressure and momentum.
Daily Order Block (D / OB): The large gray box labeled "D / OB" represents a potential Daily Order Block or a significant demand zone where institutional selling previously occurred before the current rally. The market rallied strongly from this area, confirming it as a potential accumulation zone or demand zone.
Current Consolidation and 1H/OB: Following the initial impulsive move, the price has entered a period of smaller consolidation/pullback. The smaller shaded area labeled "1H / OB" represents a 1-Hour Order Block. This area is often viewed as the key demand zone that initiated the last segment of the strong push up.
Bullish Scenario: The analysis suggests a bullish continuation is likely. The green arrow indicates the anticipated price action:
A pullback or retracement (the 'W' shape) into the 1H / OB zone. This pullback often "retests" or "mitigates" the demand in the order block.
A reversal and continuation of the uptrend, targeting the recent high around $4,220.00 and potentially higher.
Structure: The current price action (above the D/OB and consolidating) suggests the trend is bullish and the market is preparing for the next leg up after a shallow retracement.
Conclusion
The chart displays a clear bullish continuation setup. Traders utilizing this model would look for long (buy) entries within or just above the 1H / OB area, targeting the previous swing high as a minimum objective. The analysis is predicated on the idea that the strong impulsive move will be followed by a minor correction before resuming the primary uptrend.
XAUUSD Daily Chart Analysis: Potential Reversal from Premium FVGKey Observations & SMC Components
Strong Bullish Trend: The price experienced a significant rally leading up to the high on October 20th.
Break of Structure (BOS): The price recently broke above a previous swing high, marked as BOS (Break of Structure). This indicates a continuation of the short-term bullish momentum or a shift from bearish to bullish on lower timeframes.
Inefficiency/Fair Value Gap (D / FVG): The shaded gray area is identified as a D / FVG (Daily / Fair Value Gap). This area represents an imbalance in the market, often targeted for a price reaction or fill. Since the price is currently trading above the previous consolidation (near the high of the recent range), this FVG is considered to be in a Premium area.
Current Price Action: The price has moved into the lower part of the FVG.
Liquidity Grab/Equal Lows (X): The level marked X represents a prior swing high that was swept by the subsequent move, which then led to the BOS. It may also represent an area of liquidity (e.g., stops placed below that swing high) that was recently taken.
Projected Move (Arrow): The black arrow suggests a potential short trade from within the FVG, targeting the area indicated by the dotted line below the most recent swing high. This target likely represents a liquidity void or the internal liquidity of the most recent up move (perhaps an equal low or an old FVG/Imbalance on a lower timeframe).
Interpretation and Potential Scenario
The analysis suggests a trader is looking for a reaction/reversal from the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) in the Premium area.
Entry Trigger: The trader would likely look for a bearish confirmation (e.g., a change of character/market structure shift on a lower timeframe like H4 or H1) once the price is fully within or near the top of the FVG.
Target: The projected target (dotted line) suggests a move to correct the recent impulsive up-leg, potentially aiming for an internal liquidity point or the recent higher low before a potential continuation of the broader bullish trend, or even a deeper retracement.
In summary, the chart outlines a high-probability SMC short setup based on a retracement into a Premium FVG.
GOLD H1 – Awaiting CPI Data for Next Big Move🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (12/11)
📈 Market Context
Gold remains in a controlled retracement phase after a strong impulsive leg last week. The market is now consolidating within a defined 1H range, showing clear reactions near short-term EMAs as traders await today’s U.S. CPI release, a key driver of intraday volatility.
• A higher-than-expected CPI could reignite USD strength and push gold toward the discount zone.
• A softer CPI print may trigger a renewed push into the premium zone, inviting liquidity grabs above 4200.
Institutional flows remain balanced between short-term profit-taking and position building ahead of the inflation print, suggesting engineered liquidity sweeps before the real move unfolds.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style)
• Structure: Market structure is still bullish but showing distribution signs at the top of the range.
• Premium Zone: 4201–4199 aligns with unmitigated supply — a prime area for potential sell-side reaction if CPI sparks a bullish liquidity sweep.
• Discount Zone: 4083–4081 overlaps with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and sits just above EMA100 — an ideal re-accumulation area for institutional buys.
• Liquidity: Equal lows near 4080 and equal highs near 4200 make both sides vulnerable to engineered stop-hunts before direction is confirmed.
🔴 Sell Setup (Premium Reaction Zone)
• Entry: 4,201 – 4,199
• Stop-Loss: 4,210
• Take-Profit Targets:
→ 4,140 (first liquidity pocket)
→ 4,102 (mid-range equilibrium)
→ 4,083 (discount zone confluence)
📌 Only valid if CPI causes a liquidity sweep into premium, followed by M5–M15 bearish BOS confirmation.
🟢 Buy Setup (Discount Reaction Zone)
• Entry: 4,081 – 4,083
• Stop-Loss: 4,074
• Take-Profit Targets:
→ 4,102
→ 4,140
→ 4,199
📌 Only valid if price sweeps 4080 liquidity and reclaims structure with bullish BOS on M15 timeframe.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Wait for CPI-induced volatility before executing any setup.
• Avoid mid-range trades between 4100–4140 — this is equilibrium noise.
• Reduce size pre-news; volatility spikes can trigger premature stops.
• Scale partials at each liquidity pocket and trail stop-losses accordingly.
✅ Summary
Gold is consolidating ahead of CPI, with dual liquidity zones clearly defined:
• Sell zone: 4201–4199 (premium reaction area)
• Buy zone: 4083–4081 (discount re-entry area)
The market is likely to hunt one side of liquidity before revealing true intent. Traders should remain patient, trade from extremes, and align entries with confirmed structure shifts.
FOLLOW @Ryan_TitanTrader for real-time SMC updates ⚡
Gold continuation patternHere's exactly my idea, confirm it before you enter a trade! daily and 3H timeframe gaps. recommended to hit that gap only before it retraces back to 3600-3700 or above zone again.
Wait for that entry buy zone again. Or if you want to short this idea. look on 3H swept.
Chart is on daily. we might see 4180-4200, that's my short zone!
If you're having a good thoughts comment yours. this is a free community. Been dealing this moves. It's my base fibonacci level 1.61 above/retrace! before the price continues higher.
Follow for more. Watch only my zones entry buy/sell , Long/short! choose wisely.
To invest in my idea direct/private me here! with 70-30 split profit!
Gold at a Turning Point — The Final Breath of Wave (ii)?Following our previous Gold analyses, where we perfectly anticipated the major drop, it now appears that the corrective wave (ii) is nearing completion.
Although a small push higher could still occur, the current price zone is extremely risky for long positions, and it’s time to start looking for sell setups instead. 📉
Based on the Elliott Wave structure and Fibonacci projections, once this correction ends, the market is likely to enter wave (iii) to the downside — typically the strongest and most aggressive part of the entire sequence.
At this stage, patience and disciplined risk management are key, as the main bearish trend may soon reclaim full control of the market. ⚔️
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🚀 Who am I?
I'm Mahdi, a prop firm trader with 7+ years of experience in technical analysis, mainly focusing on Smart Money Concepts and Elliott Wave theory.
I specialize in delivering high-quality trading signals, market insights, and educational content tailored for serious traders and investors.
📊 My Tools: SMC, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, Liquidity Grabs, Order Blocks
💼 Prop Challenge Passed: Yes | Funded Account: In Progress
🔗 Follow for consistent updates and trading insights.
From Gold to Silver — The Next Big Move on XAGUSD Following our previous series of Gold analyses, where that massive drop unfolded exactly as projected,
this time we’re turning our focus to Silver (XAGUSD) ⚡️
After completing a clear five-wave decline, Silver has been forming a corrective rally as wave (ii) —and it now seems to be in the final subwaves of this correction.
The market looks ready to kick off wave (iii) to the downside, which is often the most powerful and impulsive leg in the entire sequence! 🔥
📍The current zone is where we expect the correction to end and the main bearish trend to take control once again.
As always, patience and precision matter most here — the next move could define the market’s direction for the coming weeks.
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🚀 Who am I?
I'm Mahdi, a prop firm trader with 7+ years of experience in technical analysis, mainly focusing on Smart Money Concepts and Elliott Wave theory.
I specialize in delivering high-quality trading signals, market insights, and educational content tailored for serious traders and investors.
📊 My Tools: SMC, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, Liquidity Grabs, Order Blocks
💼 Prop Challenge Passed: Yes | Funded Account: In Progress
🔗 Follow for consistent updates and trading insights.
Gold - This bullrun is now over!🚨Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) won't create new highs:
🔎Analysis summary:
All the way back in 2019, Gold confirmed its rounding bottom formation. This breakout was then followed by a major rally of about +200% over the past couple of years. But at this moment, Gold is retesting a major resistance trendline and will therefore end its bullrun.
📝Levels to watch:
$4,200
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4027 and a gap below at 3992. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
4027
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4027 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
4073
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4073 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4114
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4114 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4151
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4151 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4199
BEARISH TARGETS
3992
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3992 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3956
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3956 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3922
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3922 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3866
3820
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
A W-shaped pattern is emerging, indicating a bullish outlook.#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold prices trended downwards during the Asian session, leading many to believe the market has begun to reverse. However, I disagree. As I clearly stated yesterday, as long as the key support level of 4075 is not broken, we will maintain our bullish outlook, and we will continue to follow this strategy today.
From the hourly chart, gold prices are showing signs of forming a W pattern. If the neckline is broken, gold prices will continue to rise, testing the 4150-4160 range. A strong breakout could see prices reach 4180, or even 4200.
XAUUSD 1H: Price Action Analysis at Key ICT Levels (D/FVG and ?Current Price: The price is hovering around the $4,106 level, near the bottom of a smaller consolidation box.
Key Bullish Driver: The price is currently reacting to or hovering just above a major Daily Fair Value Gap (D/FVG).
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is an area of price inefficiency (imbalance) left on the chart during a swift price move. It often acts as a magnet or a support/resistance zone when price returns to "fill" it.
Since the price is currently in the upper half of this Daily FVG, traders expect this area to provide strong support for a potential continuation of the uptrend.
Key Pivot Point (1H BPR): The green box is marked as a 1H Balanced Price Range (BPR).
A BPR is a zone where two opposing Fair Value Gaps (a bullish and a bearish FVG) overlap. This overlap signifies an area where the price has been "rebalanced," making it a high-probability zone for a reversal or strong rejection when tested.
The BPR, just above the current price, would be the first line of resistance if price starts moving up, or a re-entry point for buys if it drops lower and then reverses.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation: Price uses the D/FVG as support and breaks above the local resistance (around 4,115) to target the recent highs in the 4,140-4,150 zone. (This is the expected move, indicated by the search results suggesting a bullish outlook toward $4,150).
Deeper Correction: Price fails to hold the upper boundary of the D/FVG and drops lower to test the midpoint or the bottom of the gap before finding institutional demand.
Short-term gold trading plan: buy low and sell highAfter a surge on Monday, gold prices traded sideways at high levels yesterday and today. This sudden shift in momentum was primarily due to news that the US government might end its shutdown.
On the surface, an end to the shutdown implies a crisis easing, which is typically beneficial for the US dollar and detrimental to gold. Therefore, in the short term, gold's upward momentum will likely be suppressed, potentially leading to a correction.
From a technical perspective, gold prices are currently oscillating between 4100 and 4150. The price has tested the 4150 resistance level three times since yesterday and failed to break through, indicating that this has become a key resistance level. The 4100 level has also been tested twice, suggesting strong support. Therefore, short-term trading should focus on buying low and selling high within the 4100-4150 range.
If gold prices break out of this range, we will need to revise our trading plan.
Markets are volatile, and with frequent news events expected soon, it is crucial to set stop-loss and take-profit orders to avoid getting trapped in a losing position.
XAUUSD Trade Setup: Gold at Resistance, Here's my Trade PlanXAUUSD Gold has seen a strong rally recently, pushing into a key resistance zone 🧱. With capital currently rotating out of safe-haven assets like gold and flowing into the stock markets, we could see a potential pullback from this level. 📉
At the moment, I’m avoiding buying at a premium price. Instead, I’ll be watching for a retracement back into equilibrium — around the 50% level of the recent swing range ⚖️.
If price pulls back, then breaks market structure to the upside, that could confirm renewed bullish momentum, and I’ll be looking for a long entry setup from that point. 🚀
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Gold Stalls Below 4153 ResistanceGold is currently trading around 4118 after a strong rally from the 4027 breakout. Buyers appear to be pausing after several failed attempts to clear the 4153 resistance, with price now consolidating just above the 50MA, which is acting as short-term dynamic support.
We need confirmed break above 4153 resistance for bulls to extend the move to 4197 and possible 4234.
However, if price loses the 50MA and 4115 support, we may see a move into the pullback zone. Failure to hold the key support at 4027 may bring the First Reaction Zone back into focus.
📌Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
4,153
4,197
4,234
4,285
Support:
4,115
4,074
4,027
3,984
🔎 Fundamental Focus:
It’s a busy day for speeches, with multiple FOMC members scheduled to speak throughout the session — comments could spark volatility across USD pairs.
Meanwhile, markets are keeping a close watch on the scheduled House vote to approve temporary government funding and reopen the U.S. government.
Be wary of the risks associated with rapid growth.Recently, gold prices have been affected by the ongoing US government shutdown, leading to a resurgence of safe-haven demand. After falling to a low near 3886, gold has consolidated for several weeks and is now attempting to break through to a high near 4147. This week, the key level to watch is whether 4147 can be broken; a break above this level could lead to a further push towards the 4200 mark, while a failure to break through would likely result in continued consolidation.
After the significant gains on Monday and Tuesday, gold lacks upward momentum in the short term, indicating market caution. Following today's high-level consolidation, it has fallen back to a low near 4122 in the Asian session and continues to trade sideways. The key resistance level to watch in the Asian session is 4150, while the support level is 4100.
From the perspective of the upward logic, this rise in gold prices stems from the concentrated release of previously suppressed bullish sentiment. After retracing from $4381 to $3886, gold underwent seven days of consolidation. The bullish momentum exploded rapidly after breaking out of the triangle pattern, resulting in a continuous upward trend. However, it's important to note that this round of gains lacked sufficient correction and consolidation, primarily progressing through a pattern of "rising - sideways consolidation - further rising," resulting in an excessively rapid pace of increase and excessive consumption of trading volume. Subsequent momentum is unlikely to sustain price increases, and the market is showing signs of exhaustion.
Based on technical patterns and momentum performance, in the short term, the effectiveness of the 4090-4100 support level should be closely monitored, while the 4150-4160 range serves as a key resistance zone. Be wary of a potential pullback under double-top resistance. For trading, consider going long around the 4090-4100 level, with resistance around 4160 as a key level to watch.
XAU/USD 12 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
You will note how price remains contained in consolidation between a supply and demand zone. The rest of my analysis and bias remains the same as bias date 29 October 2025.
As expected, price has printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,886.465.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD - Holding the Main Zone | Will Bulls Defend 4100 or Break📊 Market Structure Overview M30
🔤Main Trend: Bullish, but currently in a retracement phase.
🔤Recent CHoCH: Formed near 4140, signaling a temporary shift from bullish → short-term bearish.
🔤Recent BOS: Confirmed when price broke below 4120, marking short-term structure weakness.
🔤Current Behavior: Price is filling previous FVGs and approaching a potential demand zone around 4100–4110.
💡 Trading Plan
🔼 Scenario 1 – Buy continuation from 4100–4110 (Main bias)
🔤Entry: 4100–4110
🔤Reason:
Price is rebalancing through FVGs into previous demand.
Aligns with overall bullish higher-timeframe BOS.
High-probability Smart Money re-entry zone.
🔼Scenario 2 – Buy deeper retracement (Safe entry)
🔤Entry: 4040–4060
🔤Reason:
This zone is a higher-timeframe BOS base and strong accumulation area.
Perfect for deep pullback entries if price continues correcting.
🔽Scenario 3 – Counter-trend Sell from supply
🔤Entry: 4140–4150
🔤Reason:
Price may retest the last bearish FVG before continuing its retracement.
Counter-trend trade; small target, tighter stop.
Disclaimer:
All content and signals shared are for general guidance and informational purposes only. This information should not be considered a substitute for certified financial advice. We assume no responsibility for any outcomes or consequences (positive or negative) that may arise from the use of these signals. All members are strongly encouraged to consult with their own qualified experts or advisors before making any trading decisions.






















