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Will gold stay sideways before the rate announcement?WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SIDEWAY BEFORE INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT? WHAT DO YOU THINK 2 projected scenarios THIS WEEK. Scenario 1 – Gold moves sideways below 4,200 until close to FOMC If the price stubbornly stays below 4,200, unable to break through → when FOMC erupts, there's a high chance gold will break through 4,200. Target falls to: 4,000 – 4,050 → this is the beautiful zone to Buy swing The nearest zone 409x might have a reaction, pay attention (this zone is for today before fedfundrate) Scenario 2 – Early week gold strengthens back to 4,200 If early in the week gold recovers well, touching 4,200 → FOMC at this time will become a push to propel gold back up. Near target: 4,360, returning to test the previous peak. THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR: FED'S TONE. A 0.25% reduction is almost certain. But the story lies in what Powell will say. If Powell is HAWKISH like: “Only reducing this time, economy is strong, not considering QE yet…” → This is strong bad news for gold and the entire asset market. Gold drops, coins drop, stocks drop... If the FED softens a bit: Just a little dovish → gold will bounce extremely fast, no time to react. In summary for this week Gold is compressing very strongly around 4,200 FOMC will decide the direction Major volatility will definitely appear Just wait for the price to react before taking action — follow the strategy, follow the discipline. Trade well, everyone.
TVC:GOLD
by Chum_trades
1
Gold 1 off buy using Fibonacci levels deep reversei got my AI to analyse this and it agrees ### 1H XAUUSD Buy Signal Analysis @ 4134 #### Market Structure Overview - **Trend Context**: Deep correction within multi-week bullish impulse (daily HH/HL from ~3800). Price in steep descending channel from 4280 high, now testing extension targets. - **Key Levels**: | Type | Level | Significance | |------|--------|--------------| | **Support (Entry)** | 4134 | Your Fib level + channel lower bound + prior 1H swing low cluster. | | Resistance | 4160-4170 | 38.2% Fib retrace + 50 EMA + channel midline. | | Deeper Support | 4100-4110 | 78.6% Fib + 200 EMA daily + POC (Volume Profile). | | Resistance (Upside) | 4200 | 50% Fib retrace of full drop. | - **Volume Profile**: High-volume node (HVN) at 4134-4140 (accumulation zone); low volume on recent lows suggests exhaustion. - **Volatility**: ATR(14) ~20 pips (contracting); Bollinger Bands squeezing for potential breakout. #### Buy Entry @ 4134 (Green Highlight) - High-Confluence Reversal **Excellent Fib Setup – Strong Agreement Here.** - **Fibonacci Precision**: - **Primary**: 61.8% retracement of rally from ~4100 low to 4280 high ($x = 4134$ exactly). Classic "golden pocket" for bounces in trends. - **Secondary Confluence**: Aligns with 38.2% extension of minor ABC correction + 50% of broader weekly upleg from 4000. - **Why It Works**: Fibs cluster here with prior tests (price respected twice before). - **Candlestick & Price Action**: - Bullish hammer/doji at exact Fib (long lower wick rejecting lower lows). - 3-candle reversal: Engulfing green close above open of prior red. - Higher low (HL) breaking micro-downtrendline from 4170. - **Momentum Indicators**: | Indicator | Signal at 4134 | Details | |-----------|----------------|---------| | **RSI(14)** | Bullish divergence | Price LL (4134), RSI HL (28 → 42); crossed 30 oversold. | | **MACD(12,26,9)** | Histogram flip | Zero-line cross + fast line > signal. | | **Stochastic(14,3,3)** | Oversold bounce | <20 crossover upward. | - **Additional Confluences**: - **EMAs**: Rising 200 EMA (~4130) + 100 EMA convergence. - **Ichimoku**: Price at cloud base (Kijun-Sen support); Tenkan bullish cross. - **Volume**: Spike 1.8x avg on bounce candle – buyers stepping in. - **Structure**: Channel lower rail + order block (green box = unfilled liquidity). **Edge Rating**: **High (75-80%)** – Multi-confluence + exhaustion signals. Ideal for longs if holds. #### Suggested Take Profits & Risk Management | Trade | Entry | SL | TP1 (1:2 R:R) | TP2 (1:3 R:R) | TP3 (Swing) | |-------|--------|----|---------------|---------------|-------------| | **Buy** | 4134 | 4126 (-8 pts) | 4160 (+26 pts) | 4178 (+44 pts) | 4200 (50% Fib) | - **R:R Breakdown**: Minimum 1:2; scale out 50% at TP1, trail rest with 20 EMA. - **Position Sizing**: Risk 0.5-1% account (e.g., ~$8 risk on 8-pip SL for std lot). - **Invalidation**: Close below 4126 (Fib/EMA break) → flip to bearish. #### Multi-Timeframe Confluence & Bias - **Higher TF (4H/Daily)**: Bullish alignment – 4134 = daily 200 SMA + Fib pocket. Holds = resume uptrend to 4300+. - **Lower TF (15M/30M)**: Micro HLs confirming; watch for continuation candles. - **Overall Bias**: **Strongly Bullish** above 4134. Targets 4200 short-term, 4280 retest. Inverse USD strength (DXY <104) supportive. - **Risks**: News (CPI/Fed) or fakeout below 4130 → deeper to 4100. Avoid Asia session chop. - **Probability**: ~70% bounce success based on backtested Fib+EMA setups (60%+ WR at 1:2 R:R). **Great Spot – Enter on confirmation close above 4138 with volume. Solid R:R setup! 🚀** If you share TF or full Fib swing details, I can refine further.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by F0rexBorex
5
Will the Sky clear for higher Goldprice? Week 8-12 DecContext: After a quiet week with little impact from economic data, Gold FX_IDC:XAUUSD has been moving sideways within a triangle structure. The US economy looks resilient—better than many expected—shifting all eyes to the FED rate cut decision this Wednesday. 🇺🇸👀 📅 Market Recap: Mon Dec 1 (Asia Session): Price pumped +$60 up to $4264, only to dump -$101 back down to $4163, sweeping liquidity in the beginning of the US Session. 🧹 Consolidation: Since then, Gold has consolidated in a narrow range between $4190 and $4226. ↔️ Friday: US Inflation data was less dramatic than feared, but Gold still dropped around -$64, closing the week near $4191. 🔥 The Week Ahead: We have key dates coming up, but with the Rate Cut Decision pending on Wednesday, data needs to be dramatic to force a major move before then. Quiet/Choppy markets until Wednesday. 💤 The Exception: Tuesday, when US Job Data is released. 📊 🎯 The Trade Setup: If the US Job Market remains stable, there is room for further downside. I am watching for a dip to sweep liquidity before looking for entries. 📉 Downside Targets (Buy Zones): Primary Target: $4150 🥇 Secondary Target: $4110 🥈 There is strong support between this zones, so it is very possible the drop stops right at $4150 without reaching the second target. 🐂 Strategy: I see the market chopping sideways until the announcement. My plan is to look for LONG positions 🚀 if price sweeps into my targets ($4150 / $4110). My last idea about was not longer valid because the right shoulder did not went down, but a Quasimodo pattern could be a thing... Maybee FED does skip the cut? Let's see... ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Wick-Sniper
2
Gold's breach opens up downside potential. news： Amidst turbulent global financial markets, the US dollar index experienced a rebound after hitting a low last Friday, US Treasury yields climbed to a more than two-week high, while gold prices rose and then fell back. This week's focus is undoubtedly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The market widely expects the Fed to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, which would be the third consecutive easing of monetary policy. However, investors are increasingly divided on the future path of easing. Combined with the latest US economic data, inflation performance, and dovish statements from several Fed officials, gold prices, while supported, encountered resistance. The surge in US Treasury yields reflects hawkish expectations of a rate cut, while the dollar fluctuated within a range. Technical indicators： Gold Hourly Chart: So far this Asian and European session, volatility has been minimal. Overnight, the price rallied and then weakened, approaching the hourly mid-band and the previous resistance level of 4218-19. The strategy is to sell on rallies below this level, given the initial rebound this morning. So far, the price has only tested as low as 4200, with extremely slow and sluggish movement. During the US session, pay attention to the mid-band. If it provides resistance, the intraday high is unlikely to be broken, and the price will likely continue to decline. Conversely, if it breaks above the mid-band with consecutive positive candles, the intraday high may break higher. In that case, watch the 4225-4233 resistance zone, which is also the 50% and 61% Fibonacci retracement levels. Resistance there will likely continue the downward trend. Support is at 4192-91, which is also the trendline support of 4163-4175. Only when this support is decisively broken will the consolidation at the relatively high 4260-4160 end, and a new trading range will begin, with lower highs and lows, potentially reaching 4100-4200. Strategy Signals： Buy ： 4228-4238, stop loss ： 4249, target: 4207, 4185, 4170
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheodoreSilas
1
Market Analysis: Gold Price Retreats ModestlyMarket Analysis: Gold Price Retreats Modestly Gold price rallied above $4,250 before correcting lower. Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today - Gold price gained pace for a move above $4,250 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar. - A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $4,195 on the hourly chart of gold. Gold Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of Gold, the price was able to climb above $4,120, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even surpassed $4,250 before the bears appeared. The price traded close to $4,260 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below $4,240 and $4,220. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,175 swing low to the $4,260 high. However, the bulls are active above $4,200. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $4,195 and the 76.4% Fib retracement. Immediate resistance on the upside is $4,240. The next major resistance is $4,260. An upside break above $4,260 could send Gold price toward $4,275. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,290. If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near $4,195 and the trend line. The first key breakdown zone could be $4,175. If there is a downside break below $4,175, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop to $4,120. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
Consider buying at the low point. Sell at the resistance level.Gold saw little movement in the Asian and European markets, but the rebound in the US session was weak, remaining under pressure below 4220, just as Quaid predicted over the weekend, perfectly reaching the profit target. The 1-hour chart still shows an overall sideways trend, but the gold rebound is relatively weak. If gold rebounds in the US session and continues to be pressured below 4220, short positions can be considered, with support at 4160 to watch. Gold is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision. Key resistance levels to watch are 4225-4230, while key support levels are 4165-4175. The technical picture indicates a consolidation trend, requiring patience to wait for key entry points. Gold is still range-bound in the short term, without a clear one-sided trend, so continue trading within the range and wait for the Fed's interest rate decision to determine a clear direction for gold. Trading Strategy: Buy at 4160-4170, stop loss at 4150, profit target 4200-4230. If the price rebounds to around 4220 and encounters resistance, you can maintain the strategy of shorting at that level. More trading information will be updated in the channel.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid_3
2
Gold has pulled back after its recent push higher....Gold has pulled back after its recent push higher, and the current structure suggests a developing corrective phase rather than a full reversal. Momentum remains mixed, but the broader flow hints that the market may still be preparing for another upward leg once this consolidation completes. With price movement tightening, the next impulsive move could unfold sooner than expected making this an interesting setup to watch closely. **Disclosure:** We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by WeTradeWAVES
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure TVC:GOLD Gold continues to trade steadily above the $4,163–$4,147 support zone, holding within a broader consolidation while respecting the mid-term bullish structure. Price has repeatedly rejected the support band, showing that buyers are still defending the lower boundary. On the topside, the $4,251–$4,268 resistance zone remains the key ceiling—this is where sellers have consistently stepped in. The current 4H structure shows a potential pullback into support before buyers attempt another run toward the resistance zone. As long as gold holds above $4,163, the bullish bias remains intact. A clean break below this level would flip the structure bearish and expose deeper downside. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Buy from support, targeting a retest of the resistance zone. Entry: $4,163 – $4,147 Stop Loss: $4,138 Take Profit 1: $4,251 Take Profit 2: $4,268 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 3.45 Bias stays bullish as long as price holds above the support zone. A 4H close below $4,138 invalidates this upside scenario. 🌐 Macro Background (Simple Version) Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this Wednesday, with traders pricing in almost a 90% probability of a 25 bps cut. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, so rate-cut expectations naturally support the metal. At the same time, China continues increasing its gold reserves, marking a 13-month buying streak. This steady central-bank demand adds an extra layer of support beneath gold prices. U.S. data, such as the stronger-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (53.3), briefly lifted the USD, but not enough to offset the broader rate-cut narrative. Overall, the macro tone remains mildly supportive for gold as long as markets believe the Fed will ease policy this week. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: $4,251 – $4,268 Support Zone: $4,163 – $4,147 📌 Trade Summary Gold holds steady above key support as markets wait for the Fed’s decision. With rate-cut expectations high and China continuing to buy gold, dips into support remain attractive for buyers targeting the $4,250–$4,270 zone. The setup stays constructive unless price closes below $4,138. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
Gold weekly chart with Buy and sell areas last week we smashed it with both the weekly chart and the 1 off chart lets hope we are going to do the same this week ### 1H XAUUSD In-Depth Chart Analysis #### Market Structure Overview - **Overall Trend**: Short-term bearish correction within a larger bullish impulse (higher highs/lows on 4H/Daily). Price in descending channel post-recent high (~4280), testing multi-timeframe supports. - **Key Levels**: | Type | Level | Significance | |------|--------|--------------| | Support | 4213 | 200 EMA + 61.8% Fib retrace (from 4280-4100 swing) + prior 1H swing low. | | Resistance | 4236-4250 | 50 EMA cluster + channel midline + 38.2% Fib retrace. | | Support (Deeper) | 4192 | Channel lower bound + 100 EMA + prior session low. | - **Volume Profile**: Declining volume on downside suggests exhaustion; spikes on bounces indicate accumulation. - **Volatility**: ATR(14) ~25 pips; Bollinger Bands contracting, signaling potential expansion. #### Buy Entry @ 4213 (Green Lines) - Bullish Reversal Setup - **Primary Confluence**: - **EMA Alignment**: Triple-touch on 200 EMA (dynamic support, slope +0.15%/hr). Price held above rising 100/200 EMA "golden cross" zone. - **Fibonacci**: Exact 61.8% retracement of rally from 4100 low to 4280 high ($x = 4213$). Aligns with 50% of broader uptrend from 4000. - **Candlestick & Momentum**: - Bullish engulfing + hammer doji sequence (3-candle reversal). - RSI(14): Oversold divergence (dipped to 25, diverged vs. price lows → climbed to 50). Stochastic(14,3,3) crossover from <20. - **Other Confirmations**: - MACD: Histogram flip positive + signal line cross above zero. - Volume: 1.5x average on green candles, confirming buyer conviction. - Structure: Higher low (HL) formation breaking minor downtrendline from 4260. - **Invalidation**: SL below 4205 (recent wick low, R:R 1:2+). #### Sell Entry @ 4192 (Red Lines) - Bearish Breakdown Setup - **Primary Confluence**: - **Channel Break**: Close below ascending channel (drawn from 4100-4213 lows) + prior 1H low cluster. - **EMA Rejection**: 100 EMA acting as failed support (price pierced and rejected). - **Fibonacci**: 38.2% extension of recent bounce (4213-4265) projecting to 4192; aligns with 161.8% of minor pullback. - **Candlestick & Momentum**: - Bearish pinbar + engulfing on high volume (rejection wick > body). - RSI(14): Bearish divergence at 60 (price higher high, RSI lower) → momentum fade. - MACD: Bearish crossover (fast line below signal) + expanding negative histogram. - **Other Confirmations**: - Stochastic: Overbought rejection (>80) with failure to hold. - Ichimoku: Price below cloud base (Tenkan cross Kijun bearish). - Structure: Lower low (LL) confirming breakdown; volume spike 2x avg on red candles. - **Invalidation**: SL above 4200 (channel retest, R:R 1:2+). #### Suggested Take Profits & Risk Management | Trade | Entry | SL | TP1 (1:2 R:R) | TP2 (1:3 R:R) | TP3 (Swing) | |-------|--------|----|---------------|---------------|-------------| | **Buy** | 4213 | 4205 (-8 pts) | 4240 (+27 pts) | 4265 (+52 pts) | 4280 (prior high) | | **Sell** | 4192 | 4200 (+8 pts) | 4175 (-17 pts) | 4155 (-37 pts) | 4140 (200 SMA daily) | - **Position Sizing**: Risk 0.5-1% per trade (e.g., 1 lot = ~$8 risk on 8-pip SL). - **Trailing**: Move to BE after TP1; trail using 20 EMA. #### Multi-Timeframe Confluence & Bias - **Higher TF (4H)**: Bullish above 4213 (200 EMA hold); aligns with daily uptrend from 4000. - **Lower TF (15M)**: Micro bounces at 4213 suggest continuation if holds. - **Overall Bias**: **Mildly Bullish** – Favor buys on 4213 retest if RSI >45 & volume holds. Bearish only on 4192 close (targets 4140). Watch USDX for macro (inverse correlation). Avoid trades during low-volume Asia session. - **Probability Edge**: Buy ~65% (stronger support confluence); monitor for news (FOMC, NFP). **Trade Only with Confirmation Candle Close. Backtest R:R >1:2 for 60%+ Win Rate.**
OANDA:XAUUSD
by F0rexBorex
1
XUA/USD) Bearish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of GOLD (XAUUSD) – 1H SMC Analysis 1. Key Observations Double Liquidity Grab at Equal Highs Price swept the same major high twice (red arrows). This indicates liquidity engineered to fuel a move lower. Classic SMC POI: strong reversal probability after 2nd sweep. Distribution Phase Between Sweeps Blue highlighted zones show consolidation after each run. Market is using this zone to accumulate sell orders. Implies price imbalance exists underneath. --- 2. Current Market Structure Shift from Bullish → Bearish Break below recent demand suggests market structure shift. Short-term trend now bearish until proven otherwise. Price at 200 EMA Support Price hit the 200 EMA and bounced slightly. Temporary reaction + corrective pullback is expected. --- 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Setup The blue box zone marks a bearish FVG / imbalance zone: Likely area for retracement before continuation down. Price should retrace into 4218–4232 zone. This aligns with: Premium zone Supply region FVG mitigation --- 4. Projected Move Primary Scenario (Bearish) 1. Pullback → into FVG (4218–4232) 2. Reaction lower → break structure 3. Pullback lower high → continuation 4. Move towards downside liquidity Target Zone: 4,157.52 – Marked as “target point” on chart – Confluence: Previous swing low Liquidity pool Discount zone --- 5. Why Downside Targets Make Sense Above liquidity already harvested Trend shift confirmed FVG awaiting mitigation Liquidity sitting below lows shown by arrows at bottom Market likely wants to collect liquidity below December lows. This is a high-probability SMC continuation setup. --- Trade Plan Idea Potential Short Entry: 4218–4232 (FVG / supply zone) Confirmation: Rejection wick BOS on lower TF (5–15m) Stops: Above sweep zone ≥ 4250 ideal Targets: 1. 4170 2. 4157 (main target) 3. Extended: 4145 (if momentum strong) --- 6. Risk Notes Gold is volatile, especially around US sessions. Avoid chasing shorts at current level. Best R:R is waiting for pullback into premium zone. Mr SMC Trading point --- Overall Thesis: This chart is showing a textbook SMC reversal setup: Liquidity sweep at highs Structure break Pullback to FVG Downside trend continuation Bias: Bearish until FVG mitigated and lower low formed. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by SMC-Trading-Point
XAU/USD Bullish Structure Activated – Premium Swing Setup Ahead🏆 XAU/USD GOLD BREAKOUT BLUEPRINT 📈 Swing Trade | Bullish Momentum Confirmed ═══════════════════════════════════════ 📊 TRADE SETUP AT A GLANCE 🟢 Asset: XAU/USD (Gold vs U.S. Dollar) 📍 Strategy: Swing Trade | Moving Average Breakout ⚡ Bias: BULLISH | Momentum Confirmed 📊 Timeframe: ⏰ Setup Type: Technical Breakout + Price Action 🎯 ENTRY STRATEGY ✅ Entry Zone: Flexible Entry Levels Market Order or Limit Orders acceptable Align with current support/resistance structure Confirm breakout candle closure above moving averages 💡 Confirmation Signals: Price breakout above key moving average (MA) Volume confirmation Support hold above 🛑 RISK MANAGEMENT Stop Loss Level: 4,050.00 ⛔ Strategic placement below swing low Protects against false breakout IMPORTANT: Adjust SL based on YOUR personal risk tolerance & strategy Risk/Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2 recommended ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is MY suggested level only. You have complete discretion to set your own stop loss based on your trading plan, account size, and risk management rules. 🎖️ PROFIT TARGETS Primary Target: 4,260.00 🚀 Strong resistance zone identified Overbought levels approaching Key technical barrier zone 📌 Target Rationale: Resistance confluence Previous rejection zone Risk:Reward alignment ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is MY suggested target only. You retain full control over your take-profit levels. Exit at YOUR predetermined levels based on your strategy, profit goals, and market conditions. 💼 RELATED PAIRS TO MONITOR (CORRELATION ANALYSIS) 📍 USD INDEX (DXY) - Strong Inverse Correlation ⬇️ Why Watch: Gold is priced in USD. Weaker dollar = Stronger gold ↓ DXY pressure supports XAU/USD upside ↑ DXY strength threatens gold rally Key Level: Watch 104.50 - 105.00 zone 📍 EURUSD - Inverse Dollar Relationship ⬆️ Why Watch: Euro strength indicates dollar weakness, bullish for gold ↑ EURUSD strength = Tailwind for XAU/USD ↓ EURUSD weakness = Headwind for gold Key Level: Watch 1.1000 - 1.1100 support Correlation: 0.75+ inverse (very strong) 📍 GBPUSD - Inverse Dollar Relationship ⬆️ Why Watch: Similar to EUR; British Pound weakness/strength affects gold demand ↑ GBPUSD strength = Supportive for XAU/USD Key Level: Watch 1.2700 - 1.2800 zone Correlation: 0.70+ inverse relationship 📍 US 10Y YIELD (TNX) - Inverse Relationship ⬇️ Why Watch: Rising yields = Stronger dollar + Higher opportunity cost for holding non-yielding gold ↑ TNX pressure = Headwind for gold ↓ TNX decline = Tailwind for gold Key Level: Watch 4.20% - 4.50% threshold Impact: Direct fundamental driver 📍 S&P 500 (SPX) - Risk Sentiment Correlation ⬇️ Why Watch: Risk-off = Flight to safety (gold rallies); Risk-on = Equities rally (gold declines) ⬆️ SPX weakness = Typically bullish for gold (safe-haven demand) Key Level: Watch 6,800 - 6,850 support zone Correlation: -0.30 to -0.50 (inverse; moderate) 📍 OIL (WTI/BRENT) - Inflation Proxy ⬆️ Why Watch: Oil/inflation expectations influence real rates and gold demand ↑ Oil strength = Inflation concerns = Bullish for gold Key Level: Watch $75 - $80 zone Correlation: 0.40+ positive 🔑 KEY CORRELATION POINTS DXY (Dollar Index) moves in the OPPOSITE direction to gold with a -0.85 correlation (very strong inverse). This is the primary driver—when the dollar weakens, gold strengthens, and vice versa. EURUSD & GBPUSD both show strong inverse correlations at -0.75 and -0.70 respectively. Euro and Pound strength indicate dollar weakness, which supports gold upside as secondary support signals. TNX (10-Year Yield) maintains a -0.80 inverse correlation. Rising yields strengthen the dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, while declining yields support gold appreciation. This is a fundamental driver of gold price action. SPX (S&P 500) has a moderate -0.40 inverse correlation reflecting risk sentiment. When equities decline (risk-off), investors flee to safe-haven assets like gold. When stocks rally (risk-on), gold typically retreats as capital rotates to higher-yielding assets. Oil (WTI/Brent) shows a +0.40 positive correlation. Rising oil prices often signal inflation concerns, which supports gold demand as an inflation hedge and real asset store of value. 📋 PRE-TRADE CHECKLIST ✅ Moving average breakout confirmed? ✅ Volume supporting the move? ✅ DXY weakness OR USD decline confirmed? ✅ 10Y Yield below 4.50% zone? ✅ Risk/Reward ratio minimum 1:2? ✅ Your personal SL/TP levels SET? ✅ Position size calculated per YOUR risk? ✅ Economic calendar clear for next 24hrs? Happy Trading! 🚀📈 Risk What You Can Afford to Lose | Trade Smart | Manage Risk
FX:XAUUSDLong
by The-Thief
2
XAUUSD – Brian | H1 Volume ProfileXAUUSD – Brian | H1 Volume Profile: risk of deep decline as market awaits PCE data Market snapshot On H1, gold is declining in a rather "clean" structure, continuously creating lower highs and lower lows. The 4.175 area is currently the nearest support – if breached, the decline could extend another 50–60 points to lower areas. Price remains below 4.250 USD, as the market awaits PCE data (Fed's preferred inflation measure) to find a clearer direction. Technical map – Volume Profile & price areas Important areas today: 4.210 – 4.200 – 4.175 – 4.164 – 4.133 4.210–4.200: upper area, coinciding with the nearest POC/VAH cluster – selling pressure likely when price retraces here. 4.175: short-term support + area with sell-side liquidity; if this area is lost, price could be pulled to a deeper demand cluster. 4.164–4.133: potential Buy zone in a deep decline scenario – Volume Profile shows significant buying occurred around this area previously. In short: on H1, the trend is down, prioritize selling according to volume; consider buying only when price falls to a lower discount area. Trading scenario reference (Not personalized advice – adjust volume & SL according to your account) Scenario 1 – Sell following the downtrend structure (priority) Sell area: 4.210–4.200 (POC/VAH + technical retracement area) Idea: Wait for price to retrace to this area, observe H1/M15 for rejection candles (long upper tail, pin bar, engulfing…) before activating a Sell order. Suggested take profit areas: TP1: 4.175 TP2: 4.164 TP3: 4.133 (in case of a strong 50–60 point decline) Scenario 2 – Buy at deep discount area Buy area: 4.164–4.133 Idea: Only consider buying when price has "dumped" deeply enough into the buy zone, with clear reversal candles on H1. At that point, this is a technical retracement play, not trying to catch the bottom of a major trend. Suggested take profit areas: TP1: return to 4.175 TP2: 4.200 Macroeconomic context – Why is gold still hesitant? Gold recorded a slight increase on Friday, but remains within the narrow trading range of the week. Expectations of a dovish Fed continue to pressure the USD, generally supporting gold in the medium term. However, buyers are waiting for US PCE data before taking larger positions: If PCE cools significantly → reinforces the story of an early Fed rate cut → gold could easily rebound. If PCE remains stubborn → market fears a "hawkish rate cut" scenario from the Fed → yields may rise, adding selling pressure on gold. Risk management For the Sell scenario, avoid chasing price in the middle of the area – prioritize waiting for a retracement to POC/VAH before entering, with a tight SL above the 4.210–4.215 area. If participating in the Buy play at 4.164–4.133, consider splitting TP and moving SL to breakeven as soon as TP1 is reached to avoid constant chart monitoring.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
Resistance at 4210. A point to short.On Monday, gold's rebound was clearly a bull trap. The seemingly upward movement in the early Asian session actually revealed the weakness of the rebound. Last weekend, Quaid's analysis pointed out that the high of $4220-$4225 was a key resistance level, and shorting near this level could be considered. This was also confirmed in Monday's market. Similarly, during the US session, Quaid analyzed the market's long-term dynamics from multiple perspectives, including logic, fundamentals, the Fed's rate cuts, and central bank rate hikes, and also analyzed the pros and cons behind the current market frenzy. During the US session, gold prices fell sharply from $4220 to $4176 after hitting resistance, a drop of nearly $50. From a technical chart perspective, gold prices rose and fell several times last week due to data releases. There was significant selling pressure in the $4250-$4260 range. The decline is still ongoing, but it is not a one-sided downward trend. Instead, it is a volatile correction, meaning that it falls and then rebounds, using time to create space for fluctuations. Gold prices rebounded to $4200-$4210 on Tuesday, essentially reaching a high. A small short position can be considered at this level, with a downside target of $4170-$4165. I will update more transaction information in the channel.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid_3
Chumtrades XAUUSD Outlook – Will Gold Continue Sideways Today?🎯 XAUUSD – Sideway Day Before FOMC 1️⃣ Market Context H4 is clearly moving sideways: small candle bodies – long upper and lower wicks, indicating hesitation before FOMC (occurring the night of the 11th into the morning of the 12th). The price is currently locked in the H4 range: Lower boundary: 4176–4180 Upper boundary: 4215–4218 Today I am observing the price moving sideways within this range. 2️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy BUY low – priority Watch for reactions at the zones: 4180 – 4182 4174 – 4178 (bottom of H4 range) 4155 – 415X (most attractive BUY zone) → Short target: 4200 – 4210 → SL below support zone by 100 pips 🔻 SELL high – priority Watch for reactions at: 4212 – 4218 (top of H4 range) 4230 – 4233 (strong resistance – most attractive sell zone) → Target: return to mid-range 4190 → bottom of range 417X → SL above resistance zone by 100 pips The nearest zone is 4202-4198, this entry can be considered 3️⃣ Expected Movement Today → Sideways within H4 box 4176 ⇆ 4212. Just trade according to the range: buy low – sell high. Expected daily fluctuation range is 50-55 prices. A true breakout may occur tomorrow or the day after, as the market prepares for this week's FOMC. 📌 Note Prioritize candle reactions at price zones. Avoid FOMO in the middle of the range. Divide positions smaller than usual as the market tightens before major news. Find this analysis useful? Press Follow to update the plan daily before trading hours and discuss more effective strategies! Wishing everyone a day of total victory in trading!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
Gold Context: Failed Breakdown & Structure ResilienceCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Traders. Update on the opening flows of the week. Market Context (The Defense): Yesterday, the auction probed slightly below Friday's low, but failed to find acceptance or continuation. The Reaction: Instead of triggering a broader liquidation break, we saw immediate short covering. Key Observation: The market barely tested Thursday's low. This inability to extend lower and "repair" the structure indicates a lack of aggressive selling interest. Structure & Outlook: I do not view this price action as a sign of weakness. On the contrary, the rejection of lower prices suggests responsive buying is present. The Expectation: We are looking for this initial short covering to transition into New Money (OTF) buying. The Confirmation: If "New Money" steps in above the current balance, it validates the resilience we saw yesterday and should drive the auction higher. Plan & Execution: Bias: Constructive / Looking for upside rotation. Focus: Monitoring the transition from mechanical short covering to genuine initiative buying. Talk to you for the next update.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026Long
by Ken_Kissaki
Is the Dow Jones Setting Up for Another Major Leg Up?The Dow Jones continues to follow its larger bullish structure, and the recent rotation fits perfectly within the expected geometric path. As long as the current demand zone holds, momentum is preparing for another push to the upside — but the market will not move in a straight line. I’m monitoring the chart moment by moment, like a hunter waiting for the perfect entry as price approaches the key zones. I’ll highlight the critical turning points as they develop in real time.
CMCMARKETS:US30Long
by Forex_Land
GOLD 4H Chart AnalysisDear Traders – 8 Dec 2025 Please review the updated 4H chart. Since the start of December 2025, GOLD has been repeatedly testing key levels, with an upside gap near 4262 and a downside gap near 4164. Price is likely to continue testing both sides until one of these levels breaks, confirming the next directional move and range. On the 4H timeframe, the double bullish symmetrical triangle has broken to the upside, which is a clear bullish signal. However, there is still a possibility of one more retest toward the lower level around 4135 – 4165 zone and potentially to the retracement zone. If a candle closes and holds below the ifvg zone around at 4135, we could see a deeper retracement toward the 4000 – 4044 area. IMPORTANT: This week's news calendar is packed with high impact events. Please be cautious with your trades and positions, as the market are expected to be volatile across the board. Keep this in mind when looking for buy entries from dips. The updated chart will help you monitor any downward move and catch the potential bullish bounce. Bullish Targets: 4244, 4278, 4328 Bearish Targets: 4135, 4044
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by TheQUANTUMTraders
Prices have plummeted. Waiting to short sell.After Friday's market reversal, next week appears to be a crucial period that will determine the direction of gold prices. Including the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, and the Swiss National Bank will also announce their interest rate decisions next week. The market widely expects all three central banks to maintain their current interest rates. Among them, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly be the biggest variable guiding the direction of the gold market. After the price crash, gold is still expected to trade in a range. Currently, this price movement appears to be a consolidation phase following the end of an upward trend. While a trending market is unlikely, the price movements have still been quite significant. In the short term, attention should be paid to the formation of market structure. With the new downward channel emerging, gold is highly likely to confirm a temporary peak, and a significant pullback is expected in conjunction with weekly divergence. If the market opens higher at the beginning of next week, then we need to pay attention to the high point of 4220. This position is likely to play a pivotal role in the short term. While the daily chart is currently trading above the moving average system, with the shift in time and price levels, it may form some resistance next week. The key support level remains around the previous pullback low of 4160. A break below this level would open up further downside potential. However, from an overall trend perspective, the bears do not have a complete advantage, as the upward channel has not been completely broken. Quaid suggests selectively shorting at the beginning of the week and waiting. Trading Strategy: Short around 4215-4220, stop loss at 4230, profit target 4180-4160. I will adjust the strategy flexibly according to market fluctuations and update it in the channel.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid_3
1
GOLD 1H Analysis – Breakout / Retest Trendline in PlayGOLD 1H Analysis – Breakout / Retest Trendline in Play Gold is currently testing the upper channel resistance, forming a rising wedge pattern similar to the previous two structures. Each time price formed this pattern, we saw a sharp breakout and a retest, followed by a clear directional move. Now, price has reached the critical decision area again. --- 🔍 Key Insights 📌 1. Rising Wedge Formation The market has repeated the same structure three times: Price climbs inside a tight channel Tests the top of the wedge Breaks out → retests → strong move This repetition increases the probability of another structured move. --- 📉 Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability) If price fails to break above the wedge and rejects at the red arrow: Expect a move back to the trendline Break below the trendline will confirm bearish continuation Targets: 4210 → 4185 → 4160 This aligns with the orange arrows on your chart. --- 📈 Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability but valid) If price breaks above the wedge cleanly: Expect a retest Upside movement possible Targets: 4280 → 4300 This reflects the yellow upward arrows drawn on your chart. --- 📌 Summary Gold is at a decision point. A breakout from this wedge will define the next move. 👉 Watch for: A clean rejection at resistance for the sell setup A clean breakout above the wedge for the buy continuation.
TVC:GOLD
by JT_chartsEXpert
Gold - The bullrun top happens now!✂️Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is heading for a major reversal: 🔎Analysis summary: After the all time high breakout back in 2024, Gold has been rallying about +115% until today. During this entire move, Gold did not create any real correction. Considering that Gold is currently retesting a major resistance trendline, the bullrun top happens now. 📝Levels to watch: $4,000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SwingTraderPhilTV
38