XAUUSD (GOLD) Trend Shift Confirmed After Third Drive ReactionHi!
Gold has completed a clear Three-Drive Reversal pattern, with the third drive tapping into the major support zone around 4165–4175. This area has repeatedly acted as a strong demand pocket, and the sharp reaction confirms buyers are still active. Following the third drive, price broke the minor descending trendline, signaling the first shift in short-term momentum.
Current Structure
After breaking the trendline, price is now forming a healthy sequence of higher lows. The next key area is the mid-range supply zone at 4215–4220 (highlighted in red). A controlled pullback into higher-low structure would maintain bullish pressure and build the base for continuation.
Upside Targets
If buyers successfully reclaim the 4215–4220 zone, the next major target sits at the 4237–4240 resistance (green zone). This aligns with the next liquidity cluster and previous strong reaction points.
⚠️ Validation
The bullish scenario remains valid as long as price holds above the structure created after the third drive. A heavy rejection back below the support zone would invalidate the setup.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Goldprice
XAUUSD Gold Volume Profile Resistance Trade Plan’m watching Gold (XAUUSD) right now, and we’re starting to see bearish momentum coming in after that recent consolidation phase. 📉🪙 When I apply the volume profile, price has now broken below the Point of Control (POC) — and that level is a major value area where a lot of trading activity has taken place. Once price slips under the POC, it often begins acting as strong resistance. 🧱
If Gold stays below this POC and we get a clean continuation to the downside, I’ll be looking for a potential sell setup. ✔️ However, if price pushes back above the POC and starts holding above that area, then I’ll completely abandon the bearish idea and wait for a new opportunity. ⚠️
Keep it simple — let price action tell the story.
Not financial advice.
Chumtrades XAUUSD Outlook – Will Gold Continue Sideways Today?🎯 XAUUSD – Sideway Day Before FOMC
1️⃣ Market Context
H4 is clearly moving sideways: small candle bodies – long upper and lower wicks, indicating hesitation before FOMC (occurring the night of the 11th into the morning of the 12th).
The price is currently locked in the H4 range:
Lower boundary: 4176–4180
Upper boundary: 4215–4218
Today I am observing the price moving sideways within this range.
2️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy
BUY low – priority
Watch for reactions at the zones:
4180 – 4182
4174 – 4178 (bottom of H4 range)
4155 – 415X (most attractive BUY zone)
→ Short target: 4200 – 4210
→ SL below support zone by 100 pips
🔻 SELL high – priority
Watch for reactions at:
4212 – 4218 (top of H4 range)
4230 – 4233 (strong resistance – most attractive sell zone)
→ Target: return to mid-range 4190 → bottom of range 417X
→ SL above resistance zone by 100 pips
The nearest zone is 4202-4198, this entry can be considered
3️⃣ Expected Movement
Today → Sideways within H4 box 4176 ⇆ 4212.
Just trade according to the range: buy low – sell high.
Expected daily fluctuation range is 50-55 prices.
A true breakout may occur tomorrow or the day after, as the market prepares for this week's FOMC.
📌 Note
Prioritize candle reactions at price zones.
Avoid FOMO in the middle of the range.
Divide positions smaller than usual as the market tightens before major news.
Find this analysis useful?
Press Follow to update the plan daily before trading hours and discuss more effective strategies!
Wishing everyone a day of total victory in trading!
XAUUSD – Brian | H1 Volume ProfileXAUUSD – Brian | H1 Volume Profile: risk of deep decline as market awaits PCE data
Market snapshot
On H1, gold is declining in a rather "clean" structure, continuously creating lower highs and lower lows.
The 4.175 area is currently the nearest support – if breached, the decline could extend another 50–60 points to lower areas.
Price remains below 4.250 USD, as the market awaits PCE data (Fed's preferred inflation measure) to find a clearer direction.
Technical map – Volume Profile & price areas
Important areas today: 4.210 – 4.200 – 4.175 – 4.164 – 4.133
4.210–4.200: upper area, coinciding with the nearest POC/VAH cluster – selling pressure likely when price retraces here.
4.175: short-term support + area with sell-side liquidity; if this area is lost, price could be pulled to a deeper demand cluster.
4.164–4.133: potential Buy zone in a deep decline scenario – Volume Profile shows significant buying occurred around this area previously.
In short: on H1, the trend is down, prioritize selling according to volume; consider buying only when price falls to a lower discount area.
Trading scenario reference
(Not personalized advice – adjust volume & SL according to your account)
Scenario 1 – Sell following the downtrend structure (priority)
Sell area: 4.210–4.200 (POC/VAH + technical retracement area)
Idea: Wait for price to retrace to this area, observe H1/M15 for rejection candles (long upper tail, pin bar, engulfing…) before activating a Sell order.
Suggested take profit areas: TP1: 4.175
TP2: 4.164
TP3: 4.133 (in case of a strong 50–60 point decline)
Scenario 2 – Buy at deep discount area
Buy area: 4.164–4.133
Idea: Only consider buying when price has "dumped" deeply enough into the buy zone, with clear reversal candles on H1.
At that point, this is a technical retracement play, not trying to catch the bottom of a major trend.
Suggested take profit areas:
TP1: return to 4.175
TP2: 4.200
Macroeconomic context – Why is gold still hesitant?
Gold recorded a slight increase on Friday, but remains within the narrow trading range of the week.
Expectations of a dovish Fed continue to pressure the USD, generally supporting gold in the medium term.
However, buyers are waiting for US PCE data before taking larger positions:
If PCE cools significantly → reinforces the story of an early Fed rate cut → gold could easily rebound.
If PCE remains stubborn → market fears a "hawkish rate cut" scenario from the Fed → yields may rise, adding selling pressure on gold.
Risk management
For the Sell scenario, avoid chasing price in the middle of the area – prioritize waiting for a retracement to POC/VAH before entering, with a tight SL above the 4.210–4.215 area.
If participating in the Buy play at 4.164–4.133, consider splitting TP and moving SL to breakeven as soon as TP1 is reached to avoid constant chart monitoring.
SA Seabridge Gold: 93.3% Score - And Why I'm Watching CloselyIs this the World's Largest Undeveloped Gold Project?
Gold has been on a tear in 2025, and for good reason. Rate cuts on the horizon, central banks accumulating, geopolitical uncertainty everywhere. In this environment, I have been scanning for gold equities that combine technical strength with real assets. Seabridge Gold NYSE:SA emerged with a 93.3% score on my system, one of the highest I have seen in the precious metals sector this year. Here is what I found when I looked under the hood.
So Why This Stock Caught My Attention
I evaluate over 15 technical conditions with intelligent weighting, and NYSE:SA passed nearly every checkmark. The setup shows Perfect Order moving average alignment, with price trading comfortably above all key averages. The 3-month gain stands at 67.33%, more than double my 30% threshold, while relative strength versus SPY registers at 62.36%. Against its own sector, SA leads by 64.22%.
The price structure confirms a healthy uptrend with 5 higher highs and 5 higher lows over the last 10 days, weekly timeframe aligned, and the stock sitting just 5.85% below all-time highs. Momentum indicators across the board confirm bullish conditions. Most importantly, the risk warning section shows all clear: no distribution detected, no warning signals, no chasing situation.
The only weakness is the Tightening score at 39 out of 100, suggesting the consolidation needs a few more days to compress before the ideal breakout emerges.
The Company Behind the Score
Seabridge Gold is not your typical gold miner. They do not operate mines. Instead, they acquire, explore, and advance world-class deposits, then partner with major mining companies to develop them. This asset-light model means lower operational risk and massive leverage to rising metal prices.
Their flagship is the KSM project in British Columbia's Golden Triangle, and the numbers are staggering: 47.3 million ounces of gold and 7.3 billion pounds of copper in reserves. This makes KSM the world's largest undeveloped gold project and the third-largest undeveloped copper resource. The 2022 Pre-Feasibility Study outlines a 33-year mine life with all-in sustaining costs of just $601 per ounce, compared to the industry average of roughly $1,500. That cost advantage comes from copper byproduct credits and access to BC Hydro's clean, cheap hydroelectric power, giving KSM one of the lowest carbon footprints of any large-scale mining project globally and I like Green companies a lot.
What separates Seabridge from other developers is execution. They spent over $1 billion and 20 years advancing KSM through exploration, economic studies, and permitting. In July 2024, they secured "Substantially Started" status from the BC government, locking in environmental permits for the life of the project. Most competitors are still fighting permitting battles. Seabridge already won that war.
Beyond KSM, the portfolio includes Courageous Lake in the Northwest Territories with 11 million ounces of indicated gold, and the Iskut project just 20 kilometers from KSM, which management believes could become "another KSM" based on recent drilling results at Snip North. A maiden copper-gold resource at Iskut is expected by early 2026.
The Catalyst That Could Change Everything
CEO Rudi Fronk announced on November 12 that Seabridge is now in direct negotiations with a preferred JV partner after three finalists completed site visits. A deal could come before year-end. This is the moment the company has been building toward for 25 years.
The JV structure makes sense for everyone. Seabridge lacks the $5-6 billion needed to build KSM alone, but they hold 100% of a permitted, de-risked, world-class asset. Major miners have the balance sheets but struggle to find quality projects at this scale. The expected deal structure involves a phased earn-in, allowing Seabridge shareholders to retain meaningful exposure while a larger partner funds development.
B. Riley Securities raised their price target from $50 to $65 on December 2, citing rising gold and copper prices and the imminent JV catalyst. Stonegate Capital values the company between CA$42 and CA$67 per share. Current price: around $29.
My Take
SA checks nearly every box on my system. Perfect Order alignment, exceptional relative strength, clean risk profile, proximity to highs, and a fundamental story that could drive significant re-rating. The macro environment supports gold, the company sits on irreplaceable assets, and a transformational catalyst is weeks away.
I am watching for a decisive break above $29.31 with volume confirmation. If the consolidation tightens further and gold holds its strength, this setup could deliver. The 10 EMA will serve as my trailing stop reference.
Bottom Line
SA has the technical setup, the fundamental story, and the timing. I hope it follows the path of NASDAQ:GLUE which has gained nearly 50% since I first highlighted it.
Disclaimer
This analysis reflects my personal research and trading approach. It is not financial advice. I may hold or initiate a position in SA. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions
Consider buying at the low point. Sell at the resistance level.Gold saw little movement in the Asian and European markets, but the rebound in the US session was weak, remaining under pressure below 4220, just as Quaid predicted over the weekend, perfectly reaching the profit target.
The 1-hour chart still shows an overall sideways trend, but the gold rebound is relatively weak. If gold rebounds in the US session and continues to be pressured below 4220, short positions can be considered, with support at 4160 to watch. Gold is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision.
Key resistance levels to watch are 4225-4230, while key support levels are 4165-4175. The technical picture indicates a consolidation trend, requiring patience to wait for key entry points.
Gold is still range-bound in the short term, without a clear one-sided trend, so continue trading within the range and wait for the Fed's interest rate decision to determine a clear direction for gold.
Trading Strategy:
Buy at 4160-4170, stop loss at 4150, profit target 4200-4230.
If the price rebounds to around 4220 and encounters resistance, you can maintain the strategy of shorting at that level. More trading information will be updated in the channel.
Does a fluctuating gold price necessarily mean an upward trend?
news:
On Tuesday (December 9) in early Asian trading, spot gold traded in a narrow range, currently hovering around $4,192 per ounce. On Monday, spot gold prices fell slightly, closing at $4,190 per ounce, down 0.2%, while US gold futures settled down 0.6% at $4,217 per ounce. The market is taking a brief breather ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting, with investors holding their breath awaiting the latest statements from Fed Chairman Powell. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, dollar volatility, and unexpected events such as the Japanese earthquake are all subtly influencing gold's price movements.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that this rate cut is similar to the risk-management-driven rate cut in September. A December rate cut is far from certain, and a lack of economic data could provide a reason to pause rate adjustments. If information is lacking and the situation remains unchanged, there are reasons to slow the pace of rate cuts. There is significant disagreement within the committee regarding how to act in December. A growing number of officials want to postpone the rate cut, believing that at least one cycle should be waited. The government shutdown has cut off sources of economic data, but existing data suggests that the outlook has not changed significantly. Private data is being considered, but it cannot replace official data. Inflation levels remain slightly high, recent inflation expectations have risen, and long-term expectations are solid.
Technical indicators:
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the key resistance level to watch is 4240, with further short-term resistance around 4215-20. On the downside, the key support level is 4165-75. Technically, the current consolidation suggests a tendency to short on pullbacks. We should patiently wait for key entry points. Specific trading strategies will be provided in the channel; please pay close attention.
Strategy Signals:
Buy:4215-4220, stop loss : 4228, target :4190-4180.
Will the Sky clear for higher Goldprice? Week 8-12 DecContext: After a quiet week with little impact from economic data, Gold FX_IDC:XAUUSD has been moving sideways within a triangle structure. The US economy looks resilient—better than many expected—shifting all eyes to the FED rate cut decision this Wednesday. 🇺🇸👀
📅 Market Recap:
Mon Dec 1 (Asia Session): Price pumped +$60 up to $4264, only to dump -$101 back down to $4163, sweeping liquidity in the beginning of the US Session. 🧹
Consolidation: Since then, Gold has consolidated in a narrow range between $4190 and $4226. ↔️
Friday: US Inflation data was less dramatic than feared, but Gold still dropped around -$64, closing the week near $4191.
🔥 The Week Ahead:
We have key dates coming up, but with the Rate Cut Decision pending on Wednesday, data needs to be dramatic to force a major move before then.
Quiet/Choppy markets until Wednesday. 💤
The Exception: Tuesday, when US Job Data is released. 📊
🎯 The Trade Setup:
If the US Job Market remains stable, there is room for further downside. I am watching for a dip to sweep liquidity before looking for entries.
📉 Downside Targets (Buy Zones):
Primary Target: $4150 🥇
Secondary Target: $4110 🥈
There is strong support between this zones, so it is very possible the drop stops right at $4150 without reaching the second target.
🐂 Strategy: I see the market chopping sideways until the announcement. My plan is to look for LONG positions 🚀 if price sweeps into my targets ($4150 / $4110).
My last idea about was not longer valid because the right shoulder did not went down, but a Quasimodo pattern could be a thing... Maybee FED does skip the cut? Let's see...
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Premium Rejects. Discount Reacts. GOLD Obeys.TVC:GOLD continues to respect the same liquidity structure I mapped in last week’s analysis.
The 4,240 to 4,250 premium zone rejected perfectly again, triggering a clean redistribution and sending price back toward discount arrays.
My OG Indicators reacted flawlessly:
* 🔻 Sold off directly from the premium Trend Zone
* ⚡ FlowMaster showed exhaustion at the HH sweep
* 🎯 ScalpMaster printed early reversal signals
* 📉 TrendMaster acted as dynamic 1H resistance
The roadmap played out almost point to point.
⏳ 1H Short Term View
Structure still leans bearish while price stays under the premium band.
* 🐼 Bears remain in control below 4,210
* 🎯 Short targets: 4,196 → 4,188 → 4,175
* ❌ Invalidation: reclaim of 4,225 to 4,230
Discount arrays near 4,180 are attracting buyers, but we still need clean confirmation for a stronger bounce.
📆 1D Mid Term View
Macro structure stays bullish as long as the 4,100 to 4,020 demand zone holds.
This zone continues to absorb sell-side liquidity and maintain the upward structure.
* 🟢 Bulls remain in control above 4,100
* 🎯 Mid term targets: 4,265 → 4,300 → 4,335
* ⚠️ Breakdown zone: 4,100 → 4,020
Momentum cooled off, but the higher timeframe trend is still intact.
📌 Summary
Short term weakness continues, mid term support remains solid.
Premium zones keep giving clean sells, discount zones keep giving clean reactions, exactly how the OG Zones and Indicators mapped it.
The market is rotating smoothly inside the levels and offering controlled, high probability setups.
How to find an entry point within a trading range#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold rebounded as expected after retracing to around 4170. Those who followed this strategy and executed long trades may consider taking profits and exiting the market. From the daily chart, the short-term gold price is below the MA5 and MA10, indicating a weak market. If it cannot effectively break through the short-term resistance of 4185-4195 and hold above the daily MA5 and MA10, then gold still has room for a pullback. Meanwhile, looking at both the daily and weekly charts, in the absence of major news events, there is strong support at 4150-4140, which may trigger short-term fluctuations. The first pullback to this level could present an opportunity to go long on gold.
Market Analysis: Gold Price Retreats ModestlyMarket Analysis: Gold Price Retreats Modestly
Gold price rallied above $4,250 before correcting lower.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- Gold price gained pace for a move above $4,250 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $4,195 on the hourly chart of gold.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold, the price was able to climb above $4,120, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even surpassed $4,250 before the bears appeared.
The price traded close to $4,260 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below $4,240 and $4,220. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,175 swing low to the $4,260 high.
However, the bulls are active above $4,200. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $4,195 and the 76.4% Fib retracement.
Immediate resistance on the upside is $4,240. The next major resistance is $4,260. An upside break above $4,260 could send Gold price toward $4,275. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,290.
If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near $4,195 and the trend line. The first key breakdown zone could be $4,175. If there is a downside break below $4,175, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop to $4,120.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GOLD is bullish - time to buy now...XAUUSD (GOLD) was recently in a short term downtrend for a few weeks but has now shown some clear bullish movements ahead. XAUUSD (Gold) has broken out of a downward trend channel that was acting as strong resistance, The price is very likely to head to the next strong resistance level which is marked as the take profit zone (green line). Time to buy GOLD!
Gold's breach opens up downside potential.
news:
Amidst turbulent global financial markets, the US dollar index experienced a rebound after hitting a low last Friday, US Treasury yields climbed to a more than two-week high, while gold prices rose and then fell back. This week's focus is undoubtedly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The market widely expects the Fed to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, which would be the third consecutive easing of monetary policy. However, investors are increasingly divided on the future path of easing.
Combined with the latest US economic data, inflation performance, and dovish statements from several Fed officials, gold prices, while supported, encountered resistance. The surge in US Treasury yields reflects hawkish expectations of a rate cut, while the dollar fluctuated within a range.
Technical indicators:
Gold Hourly Chart: So far this Asian and European session, volatility has been minimal. Overnight, the price rallied and then weakened, approaching the hourly mid-band and the previous resistance level of 4218-19. The strategy is to sell on rallies below this level, given the initial rebound this morning. So far, the price has only tested as low as 4200, with extremely slow and sluggish movement.
During the US session, pay attention to the mid-band. If it provides resistance, the intraday high is unlikely to be broken, and the price will likely continue to decline. Conversely, if it breaks above the mid-band with consecutive positive candles, the intraday high may break higher. In that case, watch the 4225-4233 resistance zone, which is also the 50% and 61% Fibonacci retracement levels. Resistance there will likely continue the downward trend. Support is at 4192-91, which is also the trendline support of 4163-4175. Only when this support is decisively broken will the consolidation at the relatively high 4260-4160 end, and a new trading range will begin, with lower highs and lows, potentially reaching 4100-4200.
Strategy Signals:
Buy : 4228-4238, stop loss : 4249, target: 4207, 4185, 4170
XAUUSD H4 | Direction Buy Or Sell ? Lets Find ItGreetings 👋
Gold Selling In H4 ! REASONS ?
Simple Reasons H4 Head And Shoulder Pattern Green Box And Also QML Point Key Level Price
CISD / SBR : Support Become Resistance Level To Sell Gold With Confidence
Strong Bearish Fair Value Gap To Sell Xauusd Easily And Set A Big Target 🎯
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
TVC:GOLD Gold continues to trade steadily above the $4,163–$4,147 support zone, holding within a broader consolidation while respecting the mid-term bullish structure. Price has repeatedly rejected the support band, showing that buyers are still defending the lower boundary. On the topside, the $4,251–$4,268 resistance zone remains the key ceiling—this is where sellers have consistently stepped in.
The current 4H structure shows a potential pullback into support before buyers attempt another run toward the resistance zone. As long as gold holds above $4,163, the bullish bias remains intact. A clean break below this level would flip the structure bearish and expose
deeper downside.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy from support, targeting a retest of the resistance zone.
Entry: $4,163 – $4,147
Stop Loss: $4,138
Take Profit 1: $4,251
Take Profit 2: $4,268
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 3.45
Bias stays bullish as long as price holds above the support zone. A 4H close below $4,138 invalidates this upside scenario.
🌐 Macro Background (Simple Version)
Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this Wednesday, with traders pricing in almost a 90% probability of a 25 bps cut. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, so rate-cut expectations naturally support the metal.
At the same time, China continues increasing its gold reserves, marking a 13-month buying streak. This steady central-bank demand adds an extra layer of support beneath gold prices.
U.S. data, such as the stronger-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (53.3), briefly lifted the USD, but not enough to offset the broader rate-cut narrative. Overall, the macro tone remains mildly supportive for gold as long as markets believe the Fed will ease policy this week.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $4,251 – $4,268
Support Zone: $4,163 – $4,147
📌 Trade Summary
Gold holds steady above key support as markets wait for the Fed’s decision. With rate-cut expectations high and China continuing to buy gold, dips into support remain attractive for buyers targeting the $4,250–$4,270 zone. The setup stays constructive unless price closes below $4,138.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant
Will gold stay sideways before the rate announcement?WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SIDEWAY BEFORE INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT? WHAT DO YOU THINK
2 projected scenarios THIS WEEK.
Scenario 1 – Gold moves sideways below 4,200 until close to FOMC
If the price stubbornly stays below 4,200, unable to break through → when FOMC erupts, there's a high chance gold will break through 4,200.
Target falls to: 4,000 – 4,050 → this is the beautiful zone to Buy swing
The nearest zone 409x might have a reaction, pay attention (this zone is for today before fedfundrate)
Scenario 2 – Early week gold strengthens back to 4,200
If early in the week gold recovers well, touching 4,200 → FOMC at this time will become a push to propel gold back up.
Near target: 4,360, returning to test the previous peak.
THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR: FED'S TONE.
A 0.25% reduction is almost certain.
But the story lies in what Powell will say.
If Powell is HAWKISH like:
“Only reducing this time, economy is strong, not considering QE yet…”
→ This is strong bad news for gold and the entire asset market.
Gold drops, coins drop, stocks drop...
If the FED softens a bit:
Just a little dovish → gold will bounce extremely fast, no time to react.
In summary for this week
Gold is compressing very strongly around 4,200
FOMC will decide the direction
Major volatility will definitely appear
Just wait for the price to react before taking action — follow the strategy, follow the discipline.
Trade well, everyone.
Be vigilant. Continue shorting below 4225.Gold has recently maintained a narrow range-bound trading pattern at high levels, consistently trading above the 4000 trendline since late November.
Prices have repeatedly tested the 4245-4250 area but failed to break through, indicating significant resistance above. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average continues to provide short-term support, resulting in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The overall pattern continues the wide-range sweeping characteristic seen since November.
Currently, the key focus is on the first resistance area at 4225, which is a short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment. If a strong breakout fails, the market will likely remain weak; however, if the price breaks out effectively, it may test the 4245 or even the 4260-4265 area.
However, it should be noted that only a valid upward breakout above 4260-4265 will open up further upside potential. The key support level is in the 4165-4170 area. If this support level is broken again, the downward momentum will increase. I will update more transaction information in the channel.
Resistance at 4210. A point to short.On Monday, gold's rebound was clearly a bull trap. The seemingly upward movement in the early Asian session actually revealed the weakness of the rebound. Last weekend, Quaid's analysis pointed out that the high of $4220-$4225 was a key resistance level, and shorting near this level could be considered. This was also confirmed in Monday's market.
Similarly, during the US session, Quaid analyzed the market's long-term dynamics from multiple perspectives, including logic, fundamentals, the Fed's rate cuts, and central bank rate hikes, and also analyzed the pros and cons behind the current market frenzy. During the US session, gold prices fell sharply from $4220 to $4176 after hitting resistance, a drop of nearly $50.
From a technical chart perspective, gold prices rose and fell several times last week due to data releases. There was significant selling pressure in the $4250-$4260 range. The decline is still ongoing, but it is not a one-sided downward trend. Instead, it is a volatile correction, meaning that it falls and then rebounds, using time to create space for fluctuations.
Gold prices rebounded to $4200-$4210 on Tuesday, essentially reaching a high. A small short position can be considered at this level, with a downside target of $4170-$4165. I will update more transaction information in the channel.
Gold Context: Failed Breakdown & Structure ResilienceCOMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Traders. Update on the opening flows of the week.
Market Context (The Defense): Yesterday, the auction probed slightly below Friday's low, but failed to find acceptance or continuation.
The Reaction: Instead of triggering a broader liquidation break, we saw immediate short covering.
Key Observation: The market barely tested Thursday's low. This inability to extend lower and "repair" the structure indicates a lack of aggressive selling interest.
Structure & Outlook: I do not view this price action as a sign of weakness. On the contrary, the rejection of lower prices suggests responsive buying is present.
The Expectation: We are looking for this initial short covering to transition into New Money (OTF) buying.
The Confirmation: If "New Money" steps in above the current balance, it validates the resilience we saw yesterday and should drive the auction higher.
Plan & Execution:
Bias: Constructive / Looking for upside rotation.
Focus: Monitoring the transition from mechanical short covering to genuine initiative buying.
Talk to you for the next update.
Is the Dow Jones Setting Up for Another Major Leg Up?The Dow Jones continues to follow its larger bullish structure, and the recent rotation fits perfectly within the expected geometric path.
As long as the current demand zone holds, momentum is preparing for another push to the upside — but the market will not move in a straight line.
I’m monitoring the chart moment by moment, like a hunter waiting for the perfect entry as price approaches the key zones.
I’ll highlight the critical turning points as they develop in real time.
GOLD 4H Chart AnalysisDear Traders – 8 Dec 2025
Please review the updated 4H chart.
Since the start of December 2025, GOLD has been repeatedly testing key levels, with an upside gap near 4262 and a downside gap near 4164. Price is likely to continue testing both sides until one of these levels breaks, confirming the next directional move and range.
On the 4H timeframe, the double bullish symmetrical triangle has broken to the upside, which is a clear bullish signal. However, there is still a possibility of one more retest toward the lower level around 4135 – 4165 zone and potentially to the retracement zone.
If a candle closes and holds below the ifvg zone around at 4135, we could see a deeper retracement toward the 4000 – 4044 area.
IMPORTANT:
This week's news calendar is packed with high impact events. Please be cautious with your trades and positions, as the market are expected to be volatile across the board.
Keep this in mind when looking for buy entries from dips. The updated chart will help you monitor any downward move and catch the potential bullish bounce.
Bullish Targets: 4244, 4278, 4328
Bearish Targets: 4135, 4044
Prices have plummeted. Waiting to short sell.After Friday's market reversal, next week appears to be a crucial period that will determine the direction of gold prices. Including the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, and the Swiss National Bank will also announce their interest rate decisions next week. The market widely expects all three central banks to maintain their current interest rates. Among them, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly be the biggest variable guiding the direction of the gold market.
After the price crash, gold is still expected to trade in a range. Currently, this price movement appears to be a consolidation phase following the end of an upward trend. While a trending market is unlikely, the price movements have still been quite significant.
In the short term, attention should be paid to the formation of market structure. With the new downward channel emerging, gold is highly likely to confirm a temporary peak, and a significant pullback is expected in conjunction with weekly divergence. If the market opens higher at the beginning of next week, then we need to pay attention to the high point of 4220.
This position is likely to play a pivotal role in the short term. While the daily chart is currently trading above the moving average system, with the shift in time and price levels, it may form some resistance next week. The key support level remains around the previous pullback low of 4160. A break below this level would open up further downside potential.
However, from an overall trend perspective, the bears do not have a complete advantage, as the upward channel has not been completely broken. Quaid suggests selectively shorting at the beginning of the week and waiting.
Trading Strategy:
Short around 4215-4220, stop loss at 4230, profit target 4180-4160.
I will adjust the strategy flexibly according to market fluctuations and update it in the channel.
Bias remains bearish until price closes above 4,230–4,240.XAUUSD Outlook (Weekly):
Price continues to respect the bearish structure, forming lower highs under the trendline and rejecting the 4,240–4,250 supply zone. As long as price stays below 4,230, downside continuation toward 4200, 4185, and 4168 remains likely. A breakout above 4,240 would invalidate the bearish bias and open the path for higher targets. Watching reactions at key zones for directional confirmation.






















