Gold ended this week successfully,and the trend is under controlStimulated by the non-farm payroll data on Friday, gold rose sharply and set a new historical high. Combined with previous forecasts, we successfully predicted that gold would hit the 3600 line. It finally hit a high of 3600 and then rebounded to 3586 to close. Overall, gold still showed no signs of a sharp decline, and the bullish trend remained strong. Continuous high-point breakthroughs have gradually made market sentiment fearful of heights, but each pullback still becomes a new opportunity to accumulate strength. The market rhythm is completely in line with the bullish logic of pullback-repair-and-re-rush. The daily line continues to oscillate upward on the short-term moving average, and it rises again after the 4-hour oscillation repair. Although there is pressure in the short term, the general direction is still dominated by bulls. The idea for next week remains unchanged. The trend will continue to focus on buying on pullbacks. There is short-term pressure near 3600 above, but once it breaks through, the upper space will open up further. Pay attention to the support in the 3573-3563 area below. Further key support is at the 3550 line. In terms of operation, maintain a low-long rhythm, do not blindly chase the rise, try to avoid contrarian short orders, and wait patiently for the bullish opportunity after the pullback. I will remind you of the specific entry position at the bottom, so remember to follow it.
Goldtrade
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis: Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy & Weekly Forecast
Current Price: $3,448.12 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4)
Asset Class: XAUUSD / Gold Spot
Analysis Date: August 30, 2025
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Executive Summary
Gold (XAUUSD) continues its extraordinary bull market trajectory, currently trading at $3,448.12 per ounce, representing a phenomenal 37.77% year-over-year gain. Recent market data confirms gold rose to $3,448.50 on August 29, 2025, posting a daily gain of 0.91% and a substantial 5.31% monthly advance. Our comprehensive technical analysis reveals the precious metal is positioned within a critical resistance zone near $3,390-3,400, forming a pennant/ascending triangle pattern with declining volume suggesting near-term indecision. Analytical forecasts project potential targets of $3,597.89 by end-2025, supported by ongoing monetary accommodation and geopolitical uncertainties.
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Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Analysis
Gold's price action demonstrates a complex five-wave impulse structure within a Grand Super Cycle:
Primary Count: Currently in Wave 5 of (5) of - final extension phase
Wave Structure: Completing terminal impulse toward $3,800-4,000 zone
Corrective Potential: Wave 4 completion suggests limited downside to $3,200-3,150
Extended Projection: Long-term targets reach $4,200-4,500 by 2026-2027
Invalidation Level: Break below $3,150 would negate primary bullish count
Fibonacci Relationships: Current wave exhibits 1.618 extension characteristics
Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis
Gold exhibits Wyckoff Distribution Phase characteristics at current elevated levels:
Phase: Early Distribution with testing of supply levels
Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent advances indicates weakening demand
Price Action: Narrowing ranges with repeated tests of $3,400 resistance
Composite Operator Activity: Institutional profit-taking evident above $3,350
Market Character: Building selling pressure against strong underlying demand
Accumulation Zones: $3,150-3,250 represents potential future re-accumulation
W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis
Square of 9 Analysis:
- Current price $3,448.12 positioned at critical 180-degree Gann resistance
- Next major Gann square: $3,721 (360-degree completion from cycle low)
- Time and price convergence: September 18-25, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence)
- Cardinal Gann levels: $3,481, $3,600, $3,721 (geometric progressions)
Angle Theory Application:
- 1x1 Rising Angle Support: $3,250-3,300 (primary trend support)
- 2x1 Accelerated Angle: $3,500-3,550 (next resistance cluster)
- 1x2 Support Angle: $3,000-3,100 (major correction boundary)
- 1x4 Long-term Support: $2,800-2,900 (secular bull market support)
Time Cycle Analysis:
- 120-day cycle completion due: Mid-September 2025
- Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October historically strong for gold
- Major time window: October 12-22, 2025 (critical turning point)
- Lunar cycles: New moon September 15 coincides with technical resistance
Price Forecasting & Squaring of Price and Time:
- Immediate resistance: $3,480-3,520
- Primary target: $3,650-3,750
- Extended projection: $3,850-4,000
- Time harmony suggests breakthrough after October equinox
Ranges in Harmony:
- Current range: $3,350-3,480 (compression phase)
- Next expansion: $3,200-3,800 (major trading range)
- Long-term channel: $2,500-4,500 (multi-year projection)
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Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis
Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart)
Doji Patterns: August 28-30 showing indecision at resistance
Long Upper Shadows: Repeated rejection at $3,450-3,480 levels
Bullish Marubozu: August 26 confirming strong buying interest
Volume Divergence: Declining volume on recent rally attempts
Evening Star Formation: Potential three-candle reversal pattern developing
Harmonic Pattern Recognition
Potential Bat Pattern: Completion zone $3,380-3,420 (current area)
ABCD Pattern: Active correction targeting $3,200-3,250
Gartley Formation: Long-term bullish pattern projecting $4,200+
Fibonacci Confluence: Multiple retracement levels converging at $3,250
Advanced Harmonic Analysis
Three Drives Pattern: Completing third drive toward $3,500-3,600
Butterfly Pattern: Extreme extension suggesting $3,150-3,200 correction
Cypher Pattern: Potential reversal zone at $3,600-3,700
Deep Crab Setup: Long-term bullish projection to $4,500-5,000
Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Analysis
Current Setup Assessment:
Bull Trap Probability: 65% - False breakout above $3,450 likely
Bear Trap Potential: 35% - Shallow correction creating buying opportunity
Key Levels: Break above $3,520 negates trap scenario
Volume Confirmation: Required for sustainable breakout above resistance
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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart)
Price Position: Above Kumo cloud but approaching resistance
Tenkan-sen (9-period): $3,421 (short-term dynamic resistance)
Kijun-sen (26-period): $3,367 (medium-term trend support)
Senkou Span A: $3,394 (leading span A - immediate support)
Senkou Span B: $3,289 (leading span B - key cloud support)
Chikou Span: Approaching resistance at historical price levels
Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead):
- Thinning cloud structure indicating potential volatility increase
- Future resistance zone: $3,500-3,600 (forward-looking cloud top)
- Kumo twist anticipated: Late September 2025
Ichimoku Trading Signals
TK Cross: Tenkan above Kijun but flattening (weakening signal)
Price vs Cloud: Above cloud with momentum slowing
Chikou Span: Potential resistance at $3,450 historical level
Cloud Breakout: Consolidating above cloud with mixed signals
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Technical Indicators Deep Dive
RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe
Daily RSI: 58.4 (neutral zone, down from recent highs)
Weekly RSI: 67.8 (approaching overbought but not extreme)
4H RSI: 52.1 (reset from overbought levels)
RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence forming on daily timeframe
RSI Support: 50 level crucial for maintaining bullish momentum
Bollinger Bands Analysis
Current Position: Price at upper band ($3,450 level)
Band Width: Contracting after recent expansion (consolidation)
%B Indicator: 0.89 (near upper extreme but not at 1.0)
Squeeze Formation: Bollinger Band squeeze developing for next move
VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price)
Daily VWAP: $3,398 (key support level)
Weekly VWAP: $3,324 (intermediate support zone)
Monthly VWAP: $3,187 (major trend support)
Volume Profile: Highest volume acceptance at $3,250-3,350 zone
Moving Average Structure
10 EMA: $3,412 (immediate dynamic support)
20 EMA: $3,384 (short-term trend support)
50 SMA: $3,298 (intermediate support)
100 SMA: $3,156 (key trend support)
200 SMA: $2,934 (major secular support)
Moving Average Signals:
- Perfect bullish alignment maintained across all timeframes
- Golden Cross pattern firmly established
- Price trading above all major moving averages
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Support & Resistance Analysis
Primary Resistance Levels
1. R1: $3,480-3,520 (immediate Gann and technical resistance)
2. R2: $3,600-3,650 (major harmonic completion zone)
3. R3: $3,750-3,800 (Elliott Wave 5 target area)
4. R4: $3,900-4,000 (psychological and long-term projection)
5. R5: $4,200-4,500 (Extended Elliott Wave and Gann targets)
Primary Support Levels
1. S1: $3,367 (Kijun-sen and recent swing support)
2. S2: $3,250-3,300 (major accumulation and VWAP zone)
3. S3: $3,150-3,200 (Elliott Wave 4 and harmonic support)
4. S4: $3,000-3,100 (psychological and 1x2 Gann angle)
5. S5: $2,800-2,900 (major secular bull market support)
Volume-Based Support/Resistance
High Volume Node: $3,250-3,350 (institutional accumulation)
Low Volume Gap: $3,450-3,550 (potential rapid movement zone)
Volume Resistance: $3,600+ (historical distribution levels)
POC (Point of Control): $3,285 (maximum volume acceptance)
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Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework
Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts)
5-Minute Timeframe Methodology:
Entry Signals: Pullbacks to 20 EMA with RSI <30 in uptrend
Profit Targets: $8-15 per ounce per scalping trade
Stop Loss: $5-8 maximum risk per position
Volume Filter: Above-average volume required for entries
Time Windows: Asian session 1:00-5:00 AM, NY session 8:00-11:00 AM EST
15-Minute Scalping Framework:
Range Trading: Current range $3,420-3,470
Breakout Strategy: Volume confirmation above $3,470 for continuation
Mean Reversion: Fade moves beyond 2.5 standard deviations from VWAP
Risk Management: Maximum 4 positions per session, 1:2 R:R minimum
Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H)
30-Minute Chart Approach:
Trend Following: Long above EMA cluster ($3,400-3,410)
Pattern Trading: Triangle and flag formations near resistance
Target Methodology: Initial $3,480, extended $3,520-3,550
Risk Parameters: $15-25 stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum
1-Hour Chart Strategy:
Momentum Trading: MACD bullish crossovers with histogram expansion
Support Bounces: Long entries from $3,350-3,400 zone
Resistance Fading: Short opportunities above $3,470 without volume
Session Management: Focus on London AM and NY session overlap
4-Hour Swing Framework:
Cloud Strategy: Long on successful Ichimoku cloud support tests
Elliott Wave: Prepare for Wave 5 completion and subsequent correction
Fibonacci Trading: Use 38.2% and 50% retracements for entries
Hold Duration: 3-10 days for swing positions
Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly)
Daily Chart Methodology:
Breakout Strategy: Long on sustained breaks above $3,520 with volume
Correction Trading: Accumulate on pullbacks to $3,250-3,350
Target Progression: $3,650 → $3,800 → $4,000 sequential targets
Position Management: Scale in on multiple timeframe confirmations
Weekly Chart Analysis:
Primary Trend: Strongly bullish above $3,000 weekly support
Swing Targets: $3,800-4,000 zone for major profit-taking
Risk Management: Weekly closes below $3,150 signal trend change
Monthly Chart Perspective:
Secular Trend: Multi-decade bull market acceleration phase
Long-term Targets: $5,000-6,000 by 2027-2030
Major Support: $2,500-2,800 (unlikely to test in current cycle)
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Day-by-Day Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025
Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Reduced Liquidity)
Market Conditions: Thin trading expected, potential for gap moves
Technical Setup:
Resistance: $3,470, $3,500, $3,530
Support: $3,400, $3,350, $3,300
Expected Range: $3,380-3,480
Trading Strategy:
Reduced Position Sizes: Holiday conditions warrant caution
Gap Trading: Monitor overnight developments for gap opportunities
Range Strategy: Buy support, sell resistance until breakout
Risk Management: Tighter stops due to thin liquidity
Tuesday, September 3, 2025
Market Outlook: Full participation returns, volatility potential increases
Key Events & Strategy:
Economic Calendar: US manufacturing data and job openings
Technical Focus: $3,450-3,470 resistance cluster test
Fed Watch: Monitor Federal Reserve officials' speeches
Entry Strategy: Long $3,380-3,420 targeting $3,500+
Risk Considerations:
- Dollar strength potential from strong economic data
- Geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven demand
- Interest rate expectations impact on gold
Wednesday, September 4, 2025
Market Outlook: Mid-week momentum with focus on Fed policy signals
Strategic Framework:
Pattern Recognition: Triangle/pennant completion monitoring
Volume Analysis: Institutional participation crucial for breakout
Support Defense: $3,350-3,400 zone strength critical
Breakout Preparation: Position for move above $3,480
Trading Approach:
Momentum Strategy: Follow confirmed breakouts with volume
Contrarian Setup: Fade false breakouts without participation
News Trading: ADP employment data potential market mover
Thursday, September 5, 2025
Market Outlook: Pre-NFP positioning and weekly close dynamics
Key Considerations:
NFP Preparation: Traders positioning ahead of Friday's data
Technical Levels: $3,500-3,550 next major resistance zone
Jobless Claims: Weekly data could influence gold sentiment
Fed Policy: Continued monitoring of rate cut expectations
Execution Strategy:
Trend Continuation: Above $3,450 favors $3,550 target
Profit Scaling: Take profits at $3,500, $3,550, $3,600 levels
Risk Adjustment: Prepare for NFP volatility
Friday, September 6, 2025
Market Outlook: NFP release and weekly close significance
Critical Session Strategy:
NFP Impact: Non-farm payrolls major market catalyst
Weekly Close: Above $3,420 maintains bullish structure
Profit Protection: Secure gains from successful trades
Weekend Risk: Geopolitical and news flow considerations
Trading Framework:
Pre-NFP: Light positioning due to event risk
Post-NFP: React to data with appropriate position sizing
Weekly Levels: Close above $3,450 very bullish, below $3,350 concerning
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Macroeconomic & Policy Analysis
Federal Reserve Policy Impact
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance remains crucial for gold's trajectory. Current fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% with markets anticipating rate cuts later in 2025 provides a supportive backdrop for gold. Recent Fed meetings show officials holding rates steady while markets expect 2-3 potential cuts before year-end, representing a shift from earlier expectations.
Interest Rate Environment
Gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite restrictive monetary policy, with COMEX gold futures open interest rising 8% following recent Fed meetings. Low gold lease rates at 0.33% indicate weak lending demand, supporting underlying physical demand for the precious metal.
Inflation Dynamics & Currency Debasement
The relationship between Federal Reserve policies and gold prices has intensified, with the precious metal serving as an inflation hedge and currency debasement protection. Rising real yields remain a headwind, but ongoing monetary accommodation expectations support higher gold prices.
Geopolitical Risk Factors
1. Trade Policy Uncertainty: Ongoing tensions affecting global growth
2. Currency Wars: Competitive devaluations supporting gold demand
3. Debt Ceiling Issues: US fiscal concerns driving safe-haven flows
4. Middle East Tensions: Regional conflicts supporting risk premiums
5. China-US Relations: Trade disputes affecting global stability
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Central Bank Gold Demand & ETF Flows
Central Bank Activity
Net Purchases: Continued central bank accumulation, particularly from emerging markets
Diversification Drive: Move away from dollar-denominated reserves
Strategic Reserves: Gold viewed as portfolio diversification tool
Policy Support: Central bank demand providing price floor
ETF Flow Analysis
GLD Holdings: Monitoring largest gold ETF for institutional sentiment
Retail Demand: Continued interest in gold-backed securities
Flow Patterns: Consistent inflows supporting underlying demand
Market Structure: ETF demand creating physical market tightness
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Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Assessment
Current Market Structure Analysis
Bull Trap Scenario (65% Probability):
Characteristics: False breakout above $3,470-3,500 resistance
Volume Profile: Declining volume on advance indicating weak breakout
Technical Setup: RSI divergence and overextended conditions
Price Target: Correction to $3,200-3,250 support zone
Time Frame: 2-4 weeks for trap completion
Bear Trap Scenario (35% Probability):
Characteristics: Shallow decline to $3,350-3,300 creating buying opportunity
Volume Confirmation: High volume on support test indicating accumulation
Technical Reversal: Hammer or doji formation at key support levels
Breakout Target: $3,600-3,800 following trap completion
Catalyst Required: Fed dovish pivot or geopolitical escalation
Trap Identification Signals
Bull Trap Confirmation:
- Break above $3,480 on low volume
- Immediate reversal within 24-48 hours
- High volume selling on decline
- RSI failure at resistance level
Bear Trap Confirmation:
- Sharp decline to $3,300-3,350 on moderate volume
- Quick reversal with volume expansion
- Gap up following support test
- Institutional buying evidence
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Risk Management Comprehensive Framework
Position Sizing Methodology
Scalping Trades: 0.5-1% account risk per trade
Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk
Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position
Maximum Exposure: 6-8% total gold-related risk allocation
Stop-Loss Implementation
Scalping: $5-10 per ounce maximum
Intraday: $15-30 per ounce based on volatility
Swing Trading: Below key support levels ($3,250 for current longs)
Technical Stops: Elliott Wave and pattern invalidation levels
Profit-Taking Strategy
Scaling Approach: 25% at first target, 50% at second, hold 25%
Trailing Stops: Implement after 2:1 favorable movement
Time-Based Exits: Close before major Fed announcements
Pattern-Based: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones
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Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix
Bullish Scenario (Probability: 45%)
Primary Catalysts:
- Federal Reserve dovish policy signals
- Geopolitical tensions escalation
- Technical breakout above $3,520 with volume
- Weaker US economic data supporting rate cut expectations
Price Objectives:
- Initial: $3,550-3,650
- Extended: $3,750-3,800
- Optimistic: $4,000+
Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 35%)
Characteristics:
- Range-bound trading $3,300-3,500
- Mixed economic signals and Fed uncertainty
- Technical indecision at resistance levels
- Declining volatility and volume
Bearish Scenario (Probability: 20%)
Risk Factors:
- Fed hawkish surprise or strong economic data
- Technical breakdown below $3,300 support
- Dollar strength and rising real yields
- Profit-taking from institutional players
Downside Targets:
- Initial: $3,200-3,250
- Extended: $3,100-3,150
- Stress: $3,000-3,050
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Long-Term Strategic Outlook
Secular Bull Market Analysis
Gold's secular bull market remains intact with multiple supportive factors:
Monetary Debasement: Ongoing currency printing cycles
Debt Sustainability: Growing government debt burdens globally
Demographic Shifts: Aging populations requiring safe assets
Technology Disruption: Digital currencies highlighting gold's role
Multi-Year Price Projections
2025 Year-End: $3,597-3,800 (analytical forecast range)
2026 Target: $4,200-4,500 (Elliott Wave completion)
2027-2030: $5,000-6,000 (secular bull market continuation)
Crisis Scenario: $7,000+ (major monetary system disruption)
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Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
Gold (XAUUSD) stands at a critical juncture near $3,448, exhibiting technical characteristics of a mature bull market phase with potential for both continuation and correction. The confluence of multiple analytical methodologies suggests elevated probability for a near-term consolidation or correction before the next major advance toward $4,000+.
Key Success Factors:
1. Federal Reserve Policy Support: Dovish pivot crucial for next leg higher
2. Technical Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above $3,520 with volume
3. Geopolitical Catalyst: Safe-haven demand supporting higher prices
4. Dollar Weakness: USD decline necessary for gold strength
Critical Monitoring Points:
1. September 18 FOMC Meeting: Next Fed policy decision impact
2. Technical Level Behavior: Response at $3,450-3,520 resistance
3. Volume Patterns: Institutional participation in breakout attempts
4. Global Risk Sentiment: Correlation changes with risk assets
Strategic Recommendation:
Maintain cautiously optimistic stance with tactical flexibility. Current setup favors a Bull Trap scenario with 65% probability, suggesting opportunity to accumulate on pullbacks to $3,250-3,350 zone. Risk management remains paramount given elevated volatility potential and technical setup maturity.
The October time window (12-22) represents a critical juncture for intermediate-term direction, with potential for either final impulse toward $4,000+ or corrective phase toward $3,150-3,200.
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*This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Gold trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement appropriate risk management and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.*
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I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
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Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
Gold Price Update – Neutral Trend with Key Breakout Levels AheadAs of August 26, 2025, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,375 and remains in a consolidation phase inside a symmetrical triangle. Price is holding between $3,170 support and $3,450 resistance, with $3,493 as a major supply zone. A breakout above $3,450–$3,493 could extend the rally toward $3,600, while a breakdown below $3,293–$3,170 may trigger a decline toward $3,000. Until a clear breakout occurs, the overall trend is neutral with a slight bullish bias due to the long-term uptrend still intact.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $3,383 → $3,450 → $3,493
- Support: $3,317 → $3,293 → $3,232
- Breakout Zones: Below $3,293: Opens room to $3,170. Above $3,390: May lead to fresh highs toward $3,450+
Price has been ranging for months between $3,170 (Fib 0.618) support and $3,493 (supply/weak high) resistance. Market structure shows multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) signals, indicating indecision and sideways consolidation.
Gold 1hr Chart
Gold is in an uptrend, but watch $3,378 resistance for breakout confirmation; otherwise, expect a dip toward $3,345–$3,357 before resuming higher.
Buy Zone: $3,345 – $3,357 (ideal retracement support)
Buy Trigger: Break and close above $3,378 (confirmation for upside move)
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
The shot at the critical moment is the real trading opportunityGold bottomed out and rebounded yesterday, breaking the high slightly to touch 3390 before falling back. The daily line closed with a small bullish cross overnight, and the upward momentum has slowed down. Today it tends to fluctuate at a high level. In the 4H cycle, the Bollinger band is closing, and the overall bulls continue to run upward. The big positive line directly pulls up, which is relatively strong. The overall market is resistant to declines. Therefore, the big cycle does not expect a big drop for the time being, but the short-term trend fails to continue further. It is safe to maintain a pullback and go long. Pay attention to the support below 3365-3350. Go long after it stabilizes. First look at yesterday's high of 3390. If it breaks, there is a probability of going to 3400 or even around 3415, but be careful of a high rush and fall.
Gold Struggles at Resistance – Indicates Lower Lows AheadGold has been in a clear downtrend after facing a strong rejection around the 3,438 level (main resistance zone). Price is currently moving within a descending channel, confirming the formation of lower highs and lower lows – a classic bearish market structure.
Currently, Gold is trading near 3,306, facing resistance at 3,339 (marked as a possible lower high). If price fails to break above this level and sustain, there is a strong probability of continuation towards 3,249 and even 3,216.
Key Technical Highlights
- Immediate Resistance: 3,339 – 3,353
- Support Levels: 3,301 (short-term), 3,249, and 3,216
A rejection near 3,339 can lead to another leg down targeting 3,249 and 3,216. However, a strong breakout above 3,339–3,353 could temporarily shift momentum towards 3,394.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Gold Awaits Fed Rate Decision – Key Levels & Volatility AheadGold is currently trading near $3,332, showing a minor recovery after recent downward momentum. The price action on the 1-hour chart highlights a short-term ascending structure, which often acts as a corrective move rather than a strong bullish trend. The market previously saw significant selling pressure from above $3,355–$3,360, creating a short-term supply zone. Unless the price breaks and holds above this zone, the overall momentum remains bearish.
The chart also shows a projected price path where gold could push slightly higher toward $3,355, meet resistance, and potentially reverse downward again. Key support lies at $3,320, and if this breaks, we could see gold testing $3,290–$3,280 levels, aligning with the black trend line support. However, if bulls manage to break above $3,360, it would signal potential upside continuation toward $3,380–$3,400.
Key Points
- Key Resistance Levels: $3,355 and $3,360 (critical supply zone).
- Key Support Levels: $3,320 (short-term), followed by $3,290–$3,280 (major trendline support).
- Expected Short-Term Move: Possible push toward $3,355 → rejection → decline back toward $3,320 and possibly $3,290.
Bullish Breakout Scenario: A strong close above $3,360 could push price toward $3,380–$3,400.
Overall Bias: Bearish while trading below $3,360.
4hr Chart
Price remains under pressure below the descending trendline. A small pullback toward $3,345–$3,350 is possible, but as long as price stays under this resistance, the bias remains bearish with potential downside targets around $3,300–$3,280.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $3,350 → $3,381 → $3,394
- Support: $3,324 → $3,281 → $3,254
Today’s FOMC interest rate decision is a key driver for Gold. Here’s the quick analysis:
- If Fed Hikes Rates or Maintains Hawkish Tone:
- Strong USD likely → Gold could face more selling pressure.
- Key support zones: $3,324 – $3,300, then $3,281 and $3,254.
- If Fed Pauses or Turns Dovish:
- Dollar weakens → Gold may bounce toward resistance zones.
- Upside levels: $3,355 – $3,360 and higher toward $3,381 – $3,394 (Fib levels).
Expect high volatility; $3,300 is a critical support to watch. A dovish Fed may give Gold short-term relief, but a hawkish stance could accelerate the downtrend.
Note
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Gold Price Update – Bearish Flag Signals Possible Drop AheadGold is currently trading around $3,324, showing consolidation after a recent decline from the $3,345 region. The chart shows a bearish flag pattern forming after the sharp drop, indicating potential continuation of the downtrend. If gold fails to break above this region, sellers may push the price lower towards $3,301 and possibly $3,275.
The descending trend line adds further bearish pressure, limiting upside momentum unless gold decisively breaks and holds above $3,345. Overall, gold remains under short-term bearish sentiment, with the focus on support retests. Any bullish momentum will only be confirmed if the price closes above the flag and trendline resistance.
Key Points
Resistance Zones: $3,328 (0.618 Fib), $3,345 (flag top).
Support Zones: $3,301 (Fib base), $3,284, and $3,275 (bearish extension).
Trend Outlook: Short-term bearish unless price breaks above $3,345 with volume.
Bearish Targets: $3,301 → $3,284 → $3,275.
Bullish Invalidations: Break and close above $3,345 may shift bias to bullish.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Gold rises strongly, aiming for a new high!Last Friday, gold continued to rise strongly, breaking through 3320 in the Asia-Europe session and accelerating its rise. The European session broke through the 3340 mark continuously. The US session broke through 3369 and then fell back. The daily line closed with a big positive line. It broke through the high for three consecutive days and returned to above 3360. The unilateral bullish pattern was re-established. Today, the gold price jumped high and broke through 3370 and then fluctuated at a high level. Although it rushed up, the strength was limited. It must be adjusted after a short-term retracement before it can continue to rise. Therefore, in terms of operation, we continue to maintain the main idea of retreating and multiplying. Pay attention to the 3340-3345 area for short-term support during the day, and look at the 3330 line for strong support. If it does not break, it will continue to be a good opportunity to buy low and do more. Taking advantage of the trend is still the current main tone. As long as the daily level does not break 3330, the bullish structure will not be destroyed.
🔹Support focus: 3340-3345, key support level 3330
🔹Resistance focus: 3380-3393 area
1️⃣ If the price falls back to 3340-3350, a light long position will be intervened, with the target of 3365-3370. A strong breakthrough can see a new high;
2️⃣ If the price rises to 3380-3393 and is under pressure, a short-term short position adjustment can be tried, with a short-term target of around 3360.
The specific real-time points and position arrangements will be updated at the bottom. Interested friends are advised to pay attention to my strategy tips in a timely manner and seize every opportunity reasonably.
The 3400 mark will be the key for next week!Gold has been up and down this week, and the shock wash has intensified. It bottomed out and rebounded at 3282, and then steadily pulled up. After a slow rise to 3368 on Friday, the retracement was limited, and finally closed at 3355. So can gold be expected to be strong? Is it possible to reach 3400 next week? From the trend point of view, it is too early to say that it will turn strong. 3400 is an insurmountable barrier. Only by breaking through 3400 can we see a stable strong bull. If it is suppressed below 3400, the bulls will not be stable and may fall back at any time. We can only see large range fluctuations. From the overall trend point of view, gold is currently fluctuating widely in the large range of 3250-3400. It is safe to buy below 3300, and it is easy to go up. After all, it is still upward in the long run. Next week, we will focus on the gains and losses of the 3400 mark. It is not recommended to chase the high position directly on Monday. On the one hand, the interruption of the market after the weekend holiday can easily cause discontinuous rise. In addition, after three consecutive positive lines on the daily line, there will either be a negative correction and a fall, or a large positive volume. Combined with the current trend and rhythm of gold, be careful of a high-rise fall, and it is easy to get trapped by chasing long positions at high positions. Don't feel that it will soar as soon as it rises, and the high point of 3500 seems to be within reach; don't feel that it will fall sharply as soon as it falls, and the 3000 mark is not a dream. We should stay away from those who sing long when it rises and sing short when it falls. The direction is not because you see it, so you believe it, but because you believe it, so you see it. There will always be a time when you chase the rise and sell the fall and you will return with nothing.
Moreover, the high point of 3365 has not formed a substantial break and stabilized. On Monday, we still need to focus on the gains and losses of this position, so we need to look at it from two aspects:
1. If it rises directly at the opening, pay attention to the pressure near 3370-3380 and you can go short, and the target is 3350-3340!
2. If the market falls back at the opening, go long around 3340-3330, with the target above the high point of 3360-3368.
XAUUSD H4 Outlook – July 15, 2025After a sharp early-week move, gold is now pressing into H4 supply with clean CHoCHs and clear inducement in play. With CPI data and multiple FOMC speakers on deck, volatility is rising — and so are the opportunities. Let’s break down the current structure.
🔸 H4 Market Bias
Bias: Bearish unless we close firmly above 3420
Structure: Internal bearish flow remains → HL formed at 3210 → CHoCH → current move likely inducement
Context: Price has filled key FVGs and is testing unmitigated OBs in premium, with RSI approaching exhaustion
🔼 Zones Above Current Price:
3445–3465:
This is the weak high and final layer of buy-side liquidity. It includes an unfilled FVG and marks the upper limit of the premium range. If price reaches this zone, it’s likely to act as a trap before a deeper rejection.
3405–3420:
A clean imbalance zone left after the initial CHoCH push. It has already shown rejection once and is now positioned as the key area where a lower high could form. If price reacts here, it confirms continuation to the downside.
3360–3385:
This is the core supply OB, created from the CHoCH. It also aligns with the premium boundary and EMA21 resistance. Current price is already reacting here. Rejection confirms the bearish bias.
🔽 Zones Below Current Price:
3340–3355:
A minor wick-fill zone from past reactions. It may provide a small pause, but it’s structurally weak and more likely to break on momentum. Not a major support.
3300–3280:
This is the key intraday demand zone. It’s built from a previous BOS and sits at the 50% retracement of the last bullish leg. If this zone breaks, we open up deeper downside potential.
3240–3210:
The strongest demand OB on the chart. This is the HL origin and the 61.8% fib zone. If gold reaches here, expect a major decision: bounce or break.
3185–3160:
The final liquidity base under the higher low. If price sweeps this zone, it signals a major shift — potentially invalidating the June rally structure.
📊 Indicators & Flow Notes:
EMAs (5/21): Crossed bullishly, but testing overextension at 3360
RSI: Leaning overbought → potential for rejection at current zone
Volume: Bearish pressure expected if price fails to close above 3385
Fibonacci (last bullish leg): 50% sits at 3285; 61.8% near 3250
🧠 Trade Scenarios:
🔸 Bearish Setup (preferred):
→ Reject inside 3405–3420 → form LH under 3420 → clean drop toward 3300
→ Ideal confirmation = rejection wick or bearish engulfing on M30–H1
🔸 Bullish Breakout (less likely):
→ Break and hold above 3420 = potential squeeze into 3445–3465
→ Must be supported by CPI upside miss or dovish FOMC tone
→ But 3445–3465 remains weak liquidity — not a safe continuation zone
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--GoldFxMinds--
Chart and structure based on Trade Nation broker feed on TradingView. For educational purposes only — not financial advice.
How to accurately grasp gold trading opportunities?Gold rebounded as expected, and fell under pressure at the 3295-3296 line during the European session. This position was the key resistance level for the previous top and bottom conversion, and the range shock pattern continued. In terms of operation, the high-altitude and low-multiple ideas remain unchanged, and we will continue to pay attention to the short opportunities after the rebound.
📉 Operational ideas:
Short orders can be arranged in batches in the 3295-3311 area, and the target is 3280-3270 area;
If the support below 3260-3255 is effective, you can consider taking the opportunity to reverse long orders and participate in short-term.
📌Key position reference:
Upper pressure: 3295, 3311
Lower support: 3278-3275, 3260-3255
Gold strategy idea suggests shorting at 3291-3293, perfectly capturing the rebound high point! Smoothly reached the profit target of 3275, gaining 18pips! If you are not able to flexibly respond to the market in trading, and are not good at adjusting your trading ideas and rhythm in time with the market rhythm, you can pay attention to the bottom notification 🌐 to get more specific operation details and strategy updates. Let us work together to flexibly and steadily pursue more profits in the ever-changing market!
High-level fluctuations do not change the bullish trendThe 4-hour level shows that the gold price turned to high-level fluctuations after testing the upper track under pressure yesterday. There is still room for upward movement after the structure is completed. The 1-hour moving average system shows a golden cross divergent bullish arrangement, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is sufficient. The gold price continued to rise in the morning and hit a new high. The trend maintains a bull-dominated pattern. Although there was a correction in the US market yesterday, it stopped falling and stabilized at the key support level of 3330-3325 and broke through the previous high, further confirming the short-term strength. Therefore, once it pulls back to the upper area of 3335-3325, it will constitute a dip-buying opportunity. The intraday operation strategy recommends that the pullback be mainly long and the rebound short. The short-term support below focuses on the 3335-3325 range, and the upper short-term resistance level is 3365-3375.
Operation strategy: 1. Gold recommends long pullback near 3335-3325, with a target of 3350-3360.
2. It is recommended to short gold when it rebounds around 3365-3375, with the target at 3350-3340.
7.2 Gold price continues to fluctuate! Non-agricultural positionGold is still temporarily maintaining a wide range of fluctuations in the daily trend, and the price is temporarily under pressure around 3360. In the 4-hour level trend, after continuous high-level narrow fluctuations, the technical pattern has begun to weaken. The short-term moving average has gradually flattened from the previous upward divergence. After the continuous small-scale high-rise and fall back, the upward momentum in the short-term trend is insufficient. In the hourly level trend, the current running space is very compressed, but in the small-level cycle trend, after continuous fluctuations, the technical pattern has begun to weaken. The price has begun to slowly move out of the narrow range of fluctuations. Pay attention to the short-term adjustment and repair.
Gold encounters resistance at 3310-3320 and is about to fallAt present, gold has reached the 3300-3320 area as expected. As I mentioned in my previous article, we can consider shorting gold in batches in the 3300-3320 area;
Although gold once rebounded and stood above 3300, we can clearly see that when facing the short-term resistance area of 3310-3320, the bullish energy of gold has converged and began to show signs of stagflation, so the short-term resistance area of 3310-3320 is still valid.
Before gold breaks through 3310-3320, gold bears still have the upper hand. So as long as gold stays below 3310-3320 in the short term, don't be afraid of gold rebounds. Rebounds are opportunities to short gold. So I still tend to short gold at present, and have opened short gold positions according to the trading plan, hoping that gold can retreat to the target area: 3285-3275-3265. Do you think gold will fall as expected?
Gold (XAU/USD) Bearish Trade Setup – June 27, 2025Entry Point: Around 3,300.98 USD
Stop Loss (SL): ~3,312.20 USD
Take Profit (TP): 3,229.33 USD
Current Price: 3,286.15 USD
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:6.3
(Potential reward ≈ 71.65 pts; risk ≈ 11.22 pts)
Technical Breakdown:
Trend:
The price is in a short-term downtrend, supported by:
Lower highs and lower lows.
Price trading below both 50 EMA (red) and 200 EMA (blue), confirming bearish momentum.
Bearish Breakout:
Price broke below a key support-turned-resistance zone near 3,300–3,302, triggering sell pressure.
Resistance Area:
Strong rejection at 3,302–3,312 zone, which is now acting as resistance.
SL is placed just above this zone to protect against false breakouts.
Target Zone:
TP set at 3,229.33, aligning with a previous support zone — a logical area for price to react.
Strategy Notes:
Bias: Bearish
Entry confirmation: Already triggered.
Risk Management: SL placement is tight and strategic; RR ratio is highly favorable.
Next support below TP: If 3,229 breaks, further downside could follow.
Summary:
This setup shows a well-defined bearish continuation with a clean break of support, a controlled SL above resistance, and a strong RR ratio. A suitable trade for trend-following strategies, but price must not retrace above 3,312 for this idea to remain valid.
Gold may continue to rebound to 3350-3360If gold can stand above 3330 today, it will stimulate long trading behavior to a certain extent, especially the self-rescue behavior of trapped longs. Gold may continue to rebound and is expected to reach the 3345-3355 area. So there is no need to risk shorting gold near 3330 for the time being; although gold may continue to rebound, it is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area; and gold is still weak overall, so we can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area and look at the target area of 3325-3315.
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Gold XAU/USD Bullish Reversal Setup – Targeting $3,454.65Price: $3,384.41
Strategy: Buy/Long
🟦 Key Levels:
Entry Zone: Around $3,345.76
This level aligns with a previously tested support zone marked in purple.
Stop Loss: $3,331.56
Below the support zone, providing downside protection if the setup fails.
Target (TP): $3,454.65
Marked as EA TARGET POINT, suggesting a potential upside of 3.16% (~$105.83 gain).
📊 Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages:
200 EMA (blue): Near the entry level, adds strength to the support zone.
50 EMA (red): Recently crossed below price, indicating early bullish momentum.
Price Action:
Sharp bounce from support suggests buying interest.
Potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming, which is a bullish reversal pattern.
🧠 Trade Idea:
Buy near $3,345.76,
Stop Loss at $3,331.56,
Take Profit at $3,454.65
Risk/Reward Ratio ≈ 1:3.3 — favorable setup for long positions.
Gold bottomed out and rebounded, continue to go longAffected by the situation in the Middle East, gold opened high and fell again on Monday, just like last Monday. At present, it has fallen back to the 3352-3355 line and fluctuated. Although it is under short-term pressure, the bull channel has not been broken, and the retracement is still a long opportunity. The support below is 3340-3345, and the short-term resistance is 3380-3385. It is only a matter of time before it breaks through. The key suppression is still in the 3400-3415 area. In terms of strategy, continue to arrange long orders around the retracement, be cautious in chasing orders in the middle oscillation zone, and wait patiently for key position signals. The specific points are subject to the bottom 🌐 notification.
Gold suggestion: arrange long orders around 3340-3350, and the target is 3370-3380.
The bulls are not dead yet, it’s time to ambush at low levels!Gold only opened higher and rose on Monday this week, and then reached the highest level of 3452, and then started the road of shock and retracement this week. As of today, Friday, gold is still oscillating and adjusting in the lower range, but from the 4-hour market trend, the trend of gold is still dominated by bulls. In the short term, gold is oscillating and adjusting at a low level. Today, Friday, we will first focus on the support level of 3347-3353 below, which is also the starting point of the rebound yesterday. If this position is not broken today, Friday, we will mainly rebound and close.
From the 4-hour analysis, the support below focuses on 3347-3353, and the short-term resistance above focuses on the 3378-3385 level, with a focus on the 3408-3415 level. Continue to rely on this range to maintain the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation unchanged, and the middle position is always more watchful and less active, cautiously chase orders, and patiently wait for key points to enter the market.
Gold operation strategy: Go long when gold falls back to 3347-3355, with a target of 3370-3380.
If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
Gold continues to fluctuate, and range operations are effective!Gold opened high on Monday and then fell sharply. On Tuesday, it fluctuated and corrected with a cross-yang line. On Wednesday, the overall trend was also volatile. However, after the Fed's interest rate decision was announced on Wednesday, the price of gold fell to around 3362. The low point of this decline was just supported by the 10-day moving average. From a technical point of view, the support of the 10-day moving average at 3350 has become a key point. If this support can be effectively maintained, the gold price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; once it breaks down, the short-selling force may continue, and then it will be necessary to look at the support of the 20-day moving average near 3350. In terms of upper resistance, the 5-day moving average is currently near 3390, which will suppress the upward movement of gold prices. Further resistance depends on the gains and losses of 3405.
There is not much change in the 4-hour chart. The lower track has not opened, and the support of 3360 is strong. It is still a bullish trend. However, it is worth noting that in the continuous rebound, the Bollinger middle track suppression point has not been broken. Relatively speaking, gold is weak and volatile in the medium term. Under the trend today, if it continues to rise, we must pay attention to the gains and losses of the dense suppression point 3405. If 3405 is broken, the trend strength will come out and we can see the high point of 3430. For intraday trading, we still maintain high-altitude and low-multiple, waiting for the trend strength to break through the space, and we are bullish above the support of 3350 during the day.
Gold operation strategy: It is recommended to short at the rebound of 3385-3390, with a target of 3370-3365; gold falls back to 3350-3355 and buys, with a target of 3375-3385;
Range oscillation, strategy remains unchanged!The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged. Gold did not break through the range we gave after all. The important support below is still at 3365-3360. Today, we continue to operate in the range and keep high and low as yesterday. Gold touched the lowest level of 3362 without breaking through, and still rebounded. The long orders of 3372 and 3363 that we arranged have successfully stopped profit at 3380, so we continue to operate in the range.
From the current analysis of gold trend, gold continues to focus on the important support of 3365-3360 below, and focuses on the short-term suppression of 3400-3415 above in the short term. The operation is mainly carried out in the range for the time being, and there is a high probability of continued volatility in the short term.
Gold operation strategy: Go long when gold falls back to 3375-3370, and cover long positions when it falls back to 3365-3360, with the target of 3380-3390-3400.