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*GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook | 1H Chart Analysis ## 🟡 **GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Outlook | 1H Chart Analysis ### 🧭 **Market Structure Overview** Gold is currently trading around **$4,061**, showing a **bearish short-term structure** within a broader **range-bound market**. The price is reacting between well-defined **support and resistance zones**, with clear liquidity sweeps and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) visible on the chart. --- ### 🧱 **Key Levels** * 🔴 **Major Resistance:** $4,326 – $4,360 * ⚫ **Mid-Level Resistance / FVG Zone:** $4,168 – $4,204 * 🟤 **Support & Resistance Flip Zone:** $4,043 – $4,080 * ⚫ **Major Support Zone:** $3,995 – $4,020 --- ### 📉 **Technical Breakdown** 1. **Double Top Formation** seen near $4,360 resistance area ➡️ strong supply zone confirmation. 2. Price dropped sharply from resistance, breaking below key structure and forming a **lower low**. 3. A **Fair Value Gap (FVG)** remains open around $4,200, suggesting a potential **liquidity grab or retracement** back into that zone before continuation. 4. Recent bounce from $4,043 support suggests **buyers defending the zone**. --- ### 📊 **Possible Scenarios** #### 🅰️ **Bullish Scenario (Short-Term Rebound)** * Price holds above **$4,043 support** 🛡️ * Reversal toward **$4,168–$4,204 FVG zone** 🎯 * Break and close above **$4,204** could trigger momentum to **$4,326 resistance** ⚡ #### 🅱️ **Bearish Scenario (Continuation Down)** * Failure to hold **$4,043 zone** 🚨 * Could push price back toward **$4,000–$3,980 support** * Below that level → deeper correction likely 📉 --- ### 🪙 **Conclusion** 🔹 **Bias:** Short-term bullish → mid-term bearish 🔹 **Target Zone:** $4,168 → $4,204 (FVG Fill) 🔹 **Invalidation:** Break below $4,004 --- 📅 *Chart timeframe:* 1H 💡 *Strategy insight:* Look for confirmation signals (e.g., bullish engulfing or BOS) before entering near support. --- Would you like me to add **TradingView-style stickers and emoji labels (like “BUY ZONE 💰”, “FVG ⚡”, “SUPPORT 🧱”) directly on the chart image** for you? If yes, I can generate a clean **annotated version** of your chart with professional visuals.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by HoneySpotTrading
1
10.24 US market technical analysis!!!Gold hourly level: It stabilized and rebounded at 4105 overnight, and fell again in Asian session today, only rebounded from a double bottom at 4105 to 4144, and the price re-stood on the 66-day key moving average, because the Japanese and US sessions suppressed this moving average and fluctuated downward all the way; then after the positive line closed and broke through it, it was thought that if it held 4105, it could continue an upward trend. As a result, it consolidated for several hours and broke below 4100 in the afternoon, triggering a wave of decline, and hit the trend line of 4044 at the lowest, and got a certain rebound effect. After breaking through 4100, we will see the bullish trend, and the key support lies at 4150-4160.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AnalystDavid_
1
10.24 Gold US Trading Strategy, Bulls Bottom Out and Rebound as Looking at the 4-hour market trend, the current short-term resistance level at 4142-50 is being monitored on the upside, while the short-term support level at 4065-4070 is being monitored on the downside. Gold is under pressure and difficult to break through. For trading, the primary strategy is to go long on pullbacks. In the middle, be cautious and follow orders carefully, patiently waiting for key entry points. I will provide detailed trading strategies during the trading session, so please stay tuned. Gold Trading Strategy: 1. If gold rebounds and doesn't break through the 4145-52 level, go short. Set a stop-loss at 4160, and target the 4015-4000 level. Hold if it breaks through! 2. If gold retraces to the 4085-93 level, go long. Set a stop-loss at 4073, and target the 4130-35 level. Hold if it breaks through!
TVC:GOLDLong
by AnalystDavid_
10.23 Gold Intraday Short-Term Technical Guide!!!From a big-picture perspective, gold should continue its upward trend as real interest rates are expected to continue to decline as the Fed's policy turns dovish. However, in the short term, a re-adjustment of interest rate expectations could trigger a further correction. Technical Analysis: On the 4-hour chart, gold prices have broken below the neckline of the double top pattern, strengthening bearish momentum. The neckline will now become a new resistance level, where bears may position themselves, with stops set above resistance, aiming for a further break below the trendline. Bulls, on the other hand, would like to see gold prices re-break through the neckline, thereby negating the bearish pattern and pushing prices back to higher levels.
TVC:GOLD
by AnalystDavid_
1
Gold goes on a roller coaster ride. Continue to short below 4100Looking back at the price of gold since the beginning of the year, it has risen by over 50%, with an increase of over 25% in just two months. Those who bought in early on have made a killing, and at the first sign of trouble, they naturally want to sell to lock in profits. This concentrated sell-off can easily trigger panic. Leveraged margin calls exacerbate volatility: The recent surge has attracted many investors to leverage their positions. If prices fall rapidly, these leveraged positions will be forced to close, amplifying the decline like dominoes. Returning to the one-hour gold chart, US gold will continue to fluctuate between 4100 and 4020. The current trend is volatile and weak, so adopt a high-sell strategy! Go short on a dip to 4080, with an eye on the 4000 area below! Specific Strategy Sell gold below 4100, stop loss at 4110, target 4000.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AnalystDavid_
10.22 Gold rebounds and continues to be shortGold's 4-hour moving average has formed a death cross, signaling a downward bearish trend. Gold still has downward momentum. Despite today's rebound in the US market, it continued to decline rapidly. This suggests the bullish rally is weakening. Gold rebounded to around 4085 before turning downward. While gold remains under pressure at 4085, it's still a good time to continue shorting. Gold has formed a short-term bearish double top, and the bullish rebound has failed to re-stabilize the neckline of the double top. Gold remains a bearish market, and rebounds continue to offer opportunities for short sellers.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AnalystDavid_
1
Gold mania ends in a $4000 reality check? Thousands queuing for hours in central Sydney to buy gold last week was a potential warning sign that gold was vulnerable to correction. Today, gold prices saw their largest one-day fall in over ten years. After several failed attempts to break above 4,400, resistance held and momentum reversed sharply. The first key support now potentially sits near 4,000 (200% retracement). Despite the correction, long-term outlooks might remain positive. Ongoing inflation risk, lower interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. government dysfunction are still ever present. This might be why Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 price target to 4,900 per ounce, up from 4,300, citing Silver also slumped more than 7%, marking their biggest daily loss since 2021, as overbought signals flashed extremes.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets
1
Gold Price Reaches Record HighGold Price Reaches Record High As shown in the charts, XAU/USD quotations have reached historic peaks today. According to media reports, gold is behaving as a safe haven amid growing uncertainty, which is intensifying as the U.S. government shutdown continues. Meanwhile: → Gold prices may rise above $3,950 in the coming days, approaching the psychological level of $4,000. The chart underlines the firm dominance of demand forces. Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart Analysing gold price fluctuations suggests the formation of an ascending channel, which has remained relevant since mid-last month. On 30 September (when the price formed peak A) we noted that: → the sharp drop from peak A indicated bear confidence; → the price might correct towards $3,800, as bulls were exhausted, requiring another consolidation period to resume upward movement and form a “bull flag” pattern. Indeed, the price soon tested the $3,800 level (shown by the arrow), after which bulls regained strength. However, a new “bull flag” did not form; instead, three peaks of a “head and shoulders” pattern (A–B–C) emerged, which did not lead to a reversal. This failed bearish pattern emphasised the bulls’ strength in today’s gold market. From a bullish perspective, the price confidently broke above $3,900, where a local resistance line (shown in red) and the ascending channel’s median lie. On the other hand, the price has approached the upper boundary of the channel, and the RSI indicator is already in the overbought zone. If sentiment does not shift significantly, bulls’ attempt to reach the psychological level of $3,950 could make XAU/USD more vulnerable to a pullback – in which case the channel’s median could become the nearest target for sellers. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
1
GOLD: Great Breakout Will Give Us A Close Buy TradeHere is My 2H Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , the price going up very hard without any correction so we should move with it and we have a 4H Candle closure above it And Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation , so we have a good confirmation now to can buy after the price go back to retest the broken area 3790.00, and we can be targeting 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure below this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore . Reasons To Enter : 1- Perfect Touch For The Area . 2- Clear Bullish Price Action . 3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bullish P.A . 4- The Price Take The Last High . 5- Perfect 2H Closure .
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Elite_Club
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis: Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy & Weekly Forecast Current Price: $3,448.12 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Asset Class: XAUUSD / Gold Spot Analysis Date: August 30, 2025 --- Executive Summary Gold (XAUUSD) continues its extraordinary bull market trajectory, currently trading at $3,448.12 per ounce, representing a phenomenal 37.77% year-over-year gain. Recent market data confirms gold rose to $3,448.50 on August 29, 2025, posting a daily gain of 0.91% and a substantial 5.31% monthly advance. Our comprehensive technical analysis reveals the precious metal is positioned within a critical resistance zone near $3,390-3,400, forming a pennant/ascending triangle pattern with declining volume suggesting near-term indecision. Analytical forecasts project potential targets of $3,597.89 by end-2025, supported by ongoing monetary accommodation and geopolitical uncertainties. --- Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis Gold's price action demonstrates a complex five-wave impulse structure within a Grand Super Cycle: Primary Count: Currently in Wave 5 of (5) of - final extension phase Wave Structure: Completing terminal impulse toward $3,800-4,000 zone Corrective Potential: Wave 4 completion suggests limited downside to $3,200-3,150 Extended Projection: Long-term targets reach $4,200-4,500 by 2026-2027 Invalidation Level: Break below $3,150 would negate primary bullish count Fibonacci Relationships: Current wave exhibits 1.618 extension characteristics Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis Gold exhibits Wyckoff Distribution Phase characteristics at current elevated levels: Phase: Early Distribution with testing of supply levels Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent advances indicates weakening demand Price Action: Narrowing ranges with repeated tests of $3,400 resistance Composite Operator Activity: Institutional profit-taking evident above $3,350 Market Character: Building selling pressure against strong underlying demand Accumulation Zones: $3,150-3,250 represents potential future re-accumulation W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: - Current price $3,448.12 positioned at critical 180-degree Gann resistance - Next major Gann square: $3,721 (360-degree completion from cycle low) - Time and price convergence: September 18-25, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence) - Cardinal Gann levels: $3,481, $3,600, $3,721 (geometric progressions) Angle Theory Application: - 1x1 Rising Angle Support: $3,250-3,300 (primary trend support) - 2x1 Accelerated Angle: $3,500-3,550 (next resistance cluster) - 1x2 Support Angle: $3,000-3,100 (major correction boundary) - 1x4 Long-term Support: $2,800-2,900 (secular bull market support) Time Cycle Analysis: - 120-day cycle completion due: Mid-September 2025 - Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October historically strong for gold - Major time window: October 12-22, 2025 (critical turning point) - Lunar cycles: New moon September 15 coincides with technical resistance Price Forecasting & Squaring of Price and Time: - Immediate resistance: $3,480-3,520 - Primary target: $3,650-3,750 - Extended projection: $3,850-4,000 - Time harmony suggests breakthrough after October equinox Ranges in Harmony: - Current range: $3,350-3,480 (compression phase) - Next expansion: $3,200-3,800 (major trading range) - Long-term channel: $2,500-4,500 (multi-year projection) --- Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart) Doji Patterns: August 28-30 showing indecision at resistance Long Upper Shadows: Repeated rejection at $3,450-3,480 levels Bullish Marubozu: August 26 confirming strong buying interest Volume Divergence: Declining volume on recent rally attempts Evening Star Formation: Potential three-candle reversal pattern developing Harmonic Pattern Recognition Potential Bat Pattern: Completion zone $3,380-3,420 (current area) ABCD Pattern: Active correction targeting $3,200-3,250 Gartley Formation: Long-term bullish pattern projecting $4,200+ Fibonacci Confluence: Multiple retracement levels converging at $3,250 Advanced Harmonic Analysis Three Drives Pattern: Completing third drive toward $3,500-3,600 Butterfly Pattern: Extreme extension suggesting $3,150-3,200 correction Cypher Pattern: Potential reversal zone at $3,600-3,700 Deep Crab Setup: Long-term bullish projection to $4,500-5,000 Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Analysis Current Setup Assessment: Bull Trap Probability: 65% - False breakout above $3,450 likely Bear Trap Potential: 35% - Shallow correction creating buying opportunity Key Levels: Break above $3,520 negates trap scenario Volume Confirmation: Required for sustainable breakout above resistance --- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart) Price Position: Above Kumo cloud but approaching resistance Tenkan-sen (9-period): $3,421 (short-term dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26-period): $3,367 (medium-term trend support) Senkou Span A: $3,394 (leading span A - immediate support) Senkou Span B: $3,289 (leading span B - key cloud support) Chikou Span: Approaching resistance at historical price levels Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead): - Thinning cloud structure indicating potential volatility increase - Future resistance zone: $3,500-3,600 (forward-looking cloud top) - Kumo twist anticipated: Late September 2025 Ichimoku Trading Signals TK Cross: Tenkan above Kijun but flattening (weakening signal) Price vs Cloud: Above cloud with momentum slowing Chikou Span: Potential resistance at $3,450 historical level Cloud Breakout: Consolidating above cloud with mixed signals --- Technical Indicators Deep Dive RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe Daily RSI: 58.4 (neutral zone, down from recent highs) Weekly RSI: 67.8 (approaching overbought but not extreme) 4H RSI: 52.1 (reset from overbought levels) RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence forming on daily timeframe RSI Support: 50 level crucial for maintaining bullish momentum Bollinger Bands Analysis Current Position: Price at upper band ($3,450 level) Band Width: Contracting after recent expansion (consolidation) %B Indicator: 0.89 (near upper extreme but not at 1.0) Squeeze Formation: Bollinger Band squeeze developing for next move VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price) Daily VWAP: $3,398 (key support level) Weekly VWAP: $3,324 (intermediate support zone) Monthly VWAP: $3,187 (major trend support) Volume Profile: Highest volume acceptance at $3,250-3,350 zone Moving Average Structure 10 EMA: $3,412 (immediate dynamic support) 20 EMA: $3,384 (short-term trend support) 50 SMA: $3,298 (intermediate support) 100 SMA: $3,156 (key trend support) 200 SMA: $2,934 (major secular support) Moving Average Signals: - Perfect bullish alignment maintained across all timeframes - Golden Cross pattern firmly established - Price trading above all major moving averages --- Support & Resistance Analysis Primary Resistance Levels 1. R1: $3,480-3,520 (immediate Gann and technical resistance) 2. R2: $3,600-3,650 (major harmonic completion zone) 3. R3: $3,750-3,800 (Elliott Wave 5 target area) 4. R4: $3,900-4,000 (psychological and long-term projection) 5. R5: $4,200-4,500 (Extended Elliott Wave and Gann targets) Primary Support Levels 1. S1: $3,367 (Kijun-sen and recent swing support) 2. S2: $3,250-3,300 (major accumulation and VWAP zone) 3. S3: $3,150-3,200 (Elliott Wave 4 and harmonic support) 4. S4: $3,000-3,100 (psychological and 1x2 Gann angle) 5. S5: $2,800-2,900 (major secular bull market support) Volume-Based Support/Resistance High Volume Node: $3,250-3,350 (institutional accumulation) Low Volume Gap: $3,450-3,550 (potential rapid movement zone) Volume Resistance: $3,600+ (historical distribution levels) POC (Point of Control): $3,285 (maximum volume acceptance) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts) 5-Minute Timeframe Methodology: Entry Signals: Pullbacks to 20 EMA with RSI <30 in uptrend Profit Targets: $8-15 per ounce per scalping trade Stop Loss: $5-8 maximum risk per position Volume Filter: Above-average volume required for entries Time Windows: Asian session 1:00-5:00 AM, NY session 8:00-11:00 AM EST 15-Minute Scalping Framework: Range Trading: Current range $3,420-3,470 Breakout Strategy: Volume confirmation above $3,470 for continuation Mean Reversion: Fade moves beyond 2.5 standard deviations from VWAP Risk Management: Maximum 4 positions per session, 1:2 R:R minimum Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H) 30-Minute Chart Approach: Trend Following: Long above EMA cluster ($3,400-3,410) Pattern Trading: Triangle and flag formations near resistance Target Methodology: Initial $3,480, extended $3,520-3,550 Risk Parameters: $15-25 stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum 1-Hour Chart Strategy: Momentum Trading: MACD bullish crossovers with histogram expansion Support Bounces: Long entries from $3,350-3,400 zone Resistance Fading: Short opportunities above $3,470 without volume Session Management: Focus on London AM and NY session overlap 4-Hour Swing Framework: Cloud Strategy: Long on successful Ichimoku cloud support tests Elliott Wave: Prepare for Wave 5 completion and subsequent correction Fibonacci Trading: Use 38.2% and 50% retracements for entries Hold Duration: 3-10 days for swing positions Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) Daily Chart Methodology: Breakout Strategy: Long on sustained breaks above $3,520 with volume Correction Trading: Accumulate on pullbacks to $3,250-3,350 Target Progression: $3,650 → $3,800 → $4,000 sequential targets Position Management: Scale in on multiple timeframe confirmations Weekly Chart Analysis: Primary Trend: Strongly bullish above $3,000 weekly support Swing Targets: $3,800-4,000 zone for major profit-taking Risk Management: Weekly closes below $3,150 signal trend change Monthly Chart Perspective: Secular Trend: Multi-decade bull market acceleration phase Long-term Targets: $5,000-6,000 by 2027-2030 Major Support: $2,500-2,800 (unlikely to test in current cycle) --- Day-by-Day Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Reduced Liquidity) Market Conditions: Thin trading expected, potential for gap moves Technical Setup: Resistance: $3,470, $3,500, $3,530 Support: $3,400, $3,350, $3,300 Expected Range: $3,380-3,480 Trading Strategy: Reduced Position Sizes: Holiday conditions warrant caution Gap Trading: Monitor overnight developments for gap opportunities Range Strategy: Buy support, sell resistance until breakout Risk Management: Tighter stops due to thin liquidity Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Full participation returns, volatility potential increases Key Events & Strategy: Economic Calendar: US manufacturing data and job openings Technical Focus: $3,450-3,470 resistance cluster test Fed Watch: Monitor Federal Reserve officials' speeches Entry Strategy: Long $3,380-3,420 targeting $3,500+ Risk Considerations: - Dollar strength potential from strong economic data - Geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven demand - Interest rate expectations impact on gold Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: Mid-week momentum with focus on Fed policy signals Strategic Framework: Pattern Recognition: Triangle/pennant completion monitoring Volume Analysis: Institutional participation crucial for breakout Support Defense: $3,350-3,400 zone strength critical Breakout Preparation: Position for move above $3,480 Trading Approach: Momentum Strategy: Follow confirmed breakouts with volume Contrarian Setup: Fade false breakouts without participation News Trading: ADP employment data potential market mover Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Pre-NFP positioning and weekly close dynamics Key Considerations: NFP Preparation: Traders positioning ahead of Friday's data Technical Levels: $3,500-3,550 next major resistance zone Jobless Claims: Weekly data could influence gold sentiment Fed Policy: Continued monitoring of rate cut expectations Execution Strategy: Trend Continuation: Above $3,450 favors $3,550 target Profit Scaling: Take profits at $3,500, $3,550, $3,600 levels Risk Adjustment: Prepare for NFP volatility Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: NFP release and weekly close significance Critical Session Strategy: NFP Impact: Non-farm payrolls major market catalyst Weekly Close: Above $3,420 maintains bullish structure Profit Protection: Secure gains from successful trades Weekend Risk: Geopolitical and news flow considerations Trading Framework: Pre-NFP: Light positioning due to event risk Post-NFP: React to data with appropriate position sizing Weekly Levels: Close above $3,450 very bullish, below $3,350 concerning --- Macroeconomic & Policy Analysis Federal Reserve Policy Impact The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance remains crucial for gold's trajectory. Current fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% with markets anticipating rate cuts later in 2025 provides a supportive backdrop for gold. Recent Fed meetings show officials holding rates steady while markets expect 2-3 potential cuts before year-end, representing a shift from earlier expectations. Interest Rate Environment Gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite restrictive monetary policy, with COMEX gold futures open interest rising 8% following recent Fed meetings. Low gold lease rates at 0.33% indicate weak lending demand, supporting underlying physical demand for the precious metal. Inflation Dynamics & Currency Debasement The relationship between Federal Reserve policies and gold prices has intensified, with the precious metal serving as an inflation hedge and currency debasement protection. Rising real yields remain a headwind, but ongoing monetary accommodation expectations support higher gold prices. Geopolitical Risk Factors 1. Trade Policy Uncertainty: Ongoing tensions affecting global growth 2. Currency Wars: Competitive devaluations supporting gold demand 3. Debt Ceiling Issues: US fiscal concerns driving safe-haven flows 4. Middle East Tensions: Regional conflicts supporting risk premiums 5. China-US Relations: Trade disputes affecting global stability --- Central Bank Gold Demand & ETF Flows Central Bank Activity Net Purchases: Continued central bank accumulation, particularly from emerging markets Diversification Drive: Move away from dollar-denominated reserves Strategic Reserves: Gold viewed as portfolio diversification tool Policy Support: Central bank demand providing price floor ETF Flow Analysis GLD Holdings: Monitoring largest gold ETF for institutional sentiment Retail Demand: Continued interest in gold-backed securities Flow Patterns: Consistent inflows supporting underlying demand Market Structure: ETF demand creating physical market tightness --- Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Assessment Current Market Structure Analysis Bull Trap Scenario (65% Probability): Characteristics: False breakout above $3,470-3,500 resistance Volume Profile: Declining volume on advance indicating weak breakout Technical Setup: RSI divergence and overextended conditions Price Target: Correction to $3,200-3,250 support zone Time Frame: 2-4 weeks for trap completion Bear Trap Scenario (35% Probability): Characteristics: Shallow decline to $3,350-3,300 creating buying opportunity Volume Confirmation: High volume on support test indicating accumulation Technical Reversal: Hammer or doji formation at key support levels Breakout Target: $3,600-3,800 following trap completion Catalyst Required: Fed dovish pivot or geopolitical escalation Trap Identification Signals Bull Trap Confirmation: - Break above $3,480 on low volume - Immediate reversal within 24-48 hours - High volume selling on decline - RSI failure at resistance level Bear Trap Confirmation: - Sharp decline to $3,300-3,350 on moderate volume - Quick reversal with volume expansion - Gap up following support test - Institutional buying evidence --- Risk Management Comprehensive Framework Position Sizing Methodology Scalping Trades: 0.5-1% account risk per trade Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position Maximum Exposure: 6-8% total gold-related risk allocation Stop-Loss Implementation Scalping: $5-10 per ounce maximum Intraday: $15-30 per ounce based on volatility Swing Trading: Below key support levels ($3,250 for current longs) Technical Stops: Elliott Wave and pattern invalidation levels Profit-Taking Strategy Scaling Approach: 25% at first target, 50% at second, hold 25% Trailing Stops: Implement after 2:1 favorable movement Time-Based Exits: Close before major Fed announcements Pattern-Based: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones --- Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix Bullish Scenario (Probability: 45%) Primary Catalysts: - Federal Reserve dovish policy signals - Geopolitical tensions escalation - Technical breakout above $3,520 with volume - Weaker US economic data supporting rate cut expectations Price Objectives: - Initial: $3,550-3,650 - Extended: $3,750-3,800 - Optimistic: $4,000+ Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 35%) Characteristics: - Range-bound trading $3,300-3,500 - Mixed economic signals and Fed uncertainty - Technical indecision at resistance levels - Declining volatility and volume Bearish Scenario (Probability: 20%) Risk Factors: - Fed hawkish surprise or strong economic data - Technical breakdown below $3,300 support - Dollar strength and rising real yields - Profit-taking from institutional players Downside Targets: - Initial: $3,200-3,250 - Extended: $3,100-3,150 - Stress: $3,000-3,050 --- Long-Term Strategic Outlook Secular Bull Market Analysis Gold's secular bull market remains intact with multiple supportive factors: Monetary Debasement: Ongoing currency printing cycles Debt Sustainability: Growing government debt burdens globally Demographic Shifts: Aging populations requiring safe assets Technology Disruption: Digital currencies highlighting gold's role Multi-Year Price Projections 2025 Year-End: $3,597-3,800 (analytical forecast range) 2026 Target: $4,200-4,500 (Elliott Wave completion) 2027-2030: $5,000-6,000 (secular bull market continuation) Crisis Scenario: $7,000+ (major monetary system disruption) --- Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations Gold (XAUUSD) stands at a critical juncture near $3,448, exhibiting technical characteristics of a mature bull market phase with potential for both continuation and correction. The confluence of multiple analytical methodologies suggests elevated probability for a near-term consolidation or correction before the next major advance toward $4,000+. Key Success Factors: 1. Federal Reserve Policy Support: Dovish pivot crucial for next leg higher 2. Technical Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above $3,520 with volume 3. Geopolitical Catalyst: Safe-haven demand supporting higher prices 4. Dollar Weakness: USD decline necessary for gold strength Critical Monitoring Points: 1. September 18 FOMC Meeting: Next Fed policy decision impact 2. Technical Level Behavior: Response at $3,450-3,520 resistance 3. Volume Patterns: Institutional participation in breakout attempts 4. Global Risk Sentiment: Correlation changes with risk assets Strategic Recommendation: Maintain cautiously optimistic stance with tactical flexibility. Current setup favors a Bull Trap scenario with 65% probability, suggesting opportunity to accumulate on pullbacks to $3,250-3,350 zone. Risk management remains paramount given elevated volatility potential and technical setup maturity. The October time window (12-22) represents a critical juncture for intermediate-term direction, with potential for either final impulse toward $4,000+ or corrective phase toward $3,150-3,200. --- *This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Gold trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement appropriate risk management and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
Gold Price Update – Neutral Trend with Key Breakout Levels AheadAs of August 26, 2025, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,375 and remains in a consolidation phase inside a symmetrical triangle. Price is holding between $3,170 support and $3,450 resistance, with $3,493 as a major supply zone. A breakout above $3,450–$3,493 could extend the rally toward $3,600, while a breakdown below $3,293–$3,170 may trigger a decline toward $3,000. Until a clear breakout occurs, the overall trend is neutral with a slight bullish bias due to the long-term uptrend still intact. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch - Resistance: $3,383 → $3,450 → $3,493 - Support: $3,317 → $3,293 → $3,232 - Breakout Zones: Below $3,293: Opens room to $3,170. Above $3,390: May lead to fresh highs toward $3,450+ Price has been ranging for months between $3,170 (Fib 0.618) support and $3,493 (supply/weak high) resistance. Market structure shows multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) signals, indicating indecision and sideways consolidation. Gold 1hr Chart Gold is in an uptrend, but watch $3,378 resistance for breakout confirmation; otherwise, expect a dip toward $3,345–$3,357 before resuming higher. Buy Zone: $3,345 – $3,357 (ideal retracement support) Buy Trigger: Break and close above $3,378 (confirmation for upside move) Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh
The shot at the critical moment is the real trading opportunityGold bottomed out and rebounded yesterday, breaking the high slightly to touch 3390 before falling back. The daily line closed with a small bullish cross overnight, and the upward momentum has slowed down. Today it tends to fluctuate at a high level. In the 4H cycle, the Bollinger band is closing, and the overall bulls continue to run upward. The big positive line directly pulls up, which is relatively strong. The overall market is resistant to declines. Therefore, the big cycle does not expect a big drop for the time being, but the short-term trend fails to continue further. It is safe to maintain a pullback and go long. Pay attention to the support below 3365-3350. Go long after it stabilizes. First look at yesterday's high of 3390. If it breaks, there is a probability of going to 3400 or even around 3415, but be careful of a high rush and fall.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade-Daniel
Gold Struggles at Resistance – Indicates Lower Lows AheadGold has been in a clear downtrend after facing a strong rejection around the 3,438 level (main resistance zone). Price is currently moving within a descending channel, confirming the formation of lower highs and lower lows – a classic bearish market structure. Currently, Gold is trading near 3,306, facing resistance at 3,339 (marked as a possible lower high). If price fails to break above this level and sustain, there is a strong probability of continuation towards 3,249 and even 3,216. Key Technical Highlights - Immediate Resistance: 3,339 – 3,353 - Support Levels: 3,301 (short-term), 3,249, and 3,216 A rejection near 3,339 can lead to another leg down targeting 3,249 and 3,216. However, a strong breakout above 3,339–3,353 could temporarily shift momentum towards 3,394. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
2
Gold Awaits Fed Rate Decision – Key Levels & Volatility AheadGold is currently trading near $3,332, showing a minor recovery after recent downward momentum. The price action on the 1-hour chart highlights a short-term ascending structure, which often acts as a corrective move rather than a strong bullish trend. The market previously saw significant selling pressure from above $3,355–$3,360, creating a short-term supply zone. Unless the price breaks and holds above this zone, the overall momentum remains bearish. The chart also shows a projected price path where gold could push slightly higher toward $3,355, meet resistance, and potentially reverse downward again. Key support lies at $3,320, and if this breaks, we could see gold testing $3,290–$3,280 levels, aligning with the black trend line support. However, if bulls manage to break above $3,360, it would signal potential upside continuation toward $3,380–$3,400. Key Points - Key Resistance Levels: $3,355 and $3,360 (critical supply zone). - Key Support Levels: $3,320 (short-term), followed by $3,290–$3,280 (major trendline support). - Expected Short-Term Move: Possible push toward $3,355 → rejection → decline back toward $3,320 and possibly $3,290. Bullish Breakout Scenario: A strong close above $3,360 could push price toward $3,380–$3,400. Overall Bias: Bearish while trading below $3,360. 4hr Chart Price remains under pressure below the descending trendline. A small pullback toward $3,345–$3,350 is possible, but as long as price stays under this resistance, the bias remains bearish with potential downside targets around $3,300–$3,280. Key Levels: - Resistance: $3,350 → $3,381 → $3,394 - Support: $3,324 → $3,281 → $3,254 Today’s FOMC interest rate decision is a key driver for Gold. Here’s the quick analysis: - If Fed Hikes Rates or Maintains Hawkish Tone: - Strong USD likely → Gold could face more selling pressure. - Key support zones: $3,324 – $3,300, then $3,281 and $3,254. - If Fed Pauses or Turns Dovish: - Dollar weakens → Gold may bounce toward resistance zones. - Upside levels: $3,355 – $3,360 and higher toward $3,381 – $3,394 (Fib levels). Expect high volatility; $3,300 is a critical support to watch. A dovish Fed may give Gold short-term relief, but a hawkish stance could accelerate the downtrend. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold Price Update – Bearish Flag Signals Possible Drop AheadGold is currently trading around $3,324, showing consolidation after a recent decline from the $3,345 region. The chart shows a bearish flag pattern forming after the sharp drop, indicating potential continuation of the downtrend. If gold fails to break above this region, sellers may push the price lower towards $3,301 and possibly $3,275. The descending trend line adds further bearish pressure, limiting upside momentum unless gold decisively breaks and holds above $3,345. Overall, gold remains under short-term bearish sentiment, with the focus on support retests. Any bullish momentum will only be confirmed if the price closes above the flag and trendline resistance. Key Points Resistance Zones: $3,328 (0.618 Fib), $3,345 (flag top). Support Zones: $3,301 (Fib base), $3,284, and $3,275 (bearish extension). Trend Outlook: Short-term bearish unless price breaks above $3,345 with volume. Bearish Targets: $3,301 → $3,284 → $3,275. Bullish Invalidations: Break and close above $3,345 may shift bias to bullish. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold rises strongly, aiming for a new high!Last Friday, gold continued to rise strongly, breaking through 3320 in the Asia-Europe session and accelerating its rise. The European session broke through the 3340 mark continuously. The US session broke through 3369 and then fell back. The daily line closed with a big positive line. It broke through the high for three consecutive days and returned to above 3360. The unilateral bullish pattern was re-established. Today, the gold price jumped high and broke through 3370 and then fluctuated at a high level. Although it rushed up, the strength was limited. It must be adjusted after a short-term retracement before it can continue to rise. Therefore, in terms of operation, we continue to maintain the main idea of ​​retreating and multiplying. Pay attention to the 3340-3345 area for short-term support during the day, and look at the 3330 line for strong support. If it does not break, it will continue to be a good opportunity to buy low and do more. Taking advantage of the trend is still the current main tone. As long as the daily level does not break 3330, the bullish structure will not be destroyed. 🔹Support focus: 3340-3345, key support level 3330 🔹Resistance focus: 3380-3393 area 1️⃣ If the price falls back to 3340-3350, a light long position will be intervened, with the target of 3365-3370. A strong breakthrough can see a new high; 2️⃣ If the price rises to 3380-3393 and is under pressure, a short-term short position adjustment can be tried, with a short-term target of around 3360. The specific real-time points and position arrangements will be updated at the bottom. Interested friends are advised to pay attention to my strategy tips in a timely manner and seize every opportunity reasonably.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade-Daniel
2
The 3400 mark will be the key for next week!Gold has been up and down this week, and the shock wash has intensified. It bottomed out and rebounded at 3282, and then steadily pulled up. After a slow rise to 3368 on Friday, the retracement was limited, and finally closed at 3355. So can gold be expected to be strong? Is it possible to reach 3400 next week? From the trend point of view, it is too early to say that it will turn strong. 3400 is an insurmountable barrier. Only by breaking through 3400 can we see a stable strong bull. If it is suppressed below 3400, the bulls will not be stable and may fall back at any time. We can only see large range fluctuations. From the overall trend point of view, gold is currently fluctuating widely in the large range of 3250-3400. It is safe to buy below 3300, and it is easy to go up. After all, it is still upward in the long run. Next week, we will focus on the gains and losses of the 3400 mark. It is not recommended to chase the high position directly on Monday. On the one hand, the interruption of the market after the weekend holiday can easily cause discontinuous rise. In addition, after three consecutive positive lines on the daily line, there will either be a negative correction and a fall, or a large positive volume. Combined with the current trend and rhythm of gold, be careful of a high-rise fall, and it is easy to get trapped by chasing long positions at high positions. Don't feel that it will soar as soon as it rises, and the high point of 3500 seems to be within reach; don't feel that it will fall sharply as soon as it falls, and the 3000 mark is not a dream. We should stay away from those who sing long when it rises and sing short when it falls. The direction is not because you see it, so you believe it, but because you believe it, so you see it. There will always be a time when you chase the rise and sell the fall and you will return with nothing. Moreover, the high point of 3365 has not formed a substantial break and stabilized. On Monday, we still need to focus on the gains and losses of this position, so we need to look at it from two aspects: 1. If it rises directly at the opening, pay attention to the pressure near 3370-3380 and you can go short, and the target is 3350-3340! 2. If the market falls back at the opening, go long around 3340-3330, with the target above the high point of 3360-3368.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade-Daniel
1
How to accurately grasp gold trading opportunities?Gold rebounded as expected, and fell under pressure at the 3295-3296 line during the European session. This position was the key resistance level for the previous top and bottom conversion, and the range shock pattern continued. In terms of operation, the high-altitude and low-multiple ideas remain unchanged, and we will continue to pay attention to the short opportunities after the rebound. 📉 Operational ideas: Short orders can be arranged in batches in the 3295-3311 area, and the target is 3280-3270 area; If the support below 3260-3255 is effective, you can consider taking the opportunity to reverse long orders and participate in short-term. 📌Key position reference: Upper pressure: 3295, 3311 Lower support: 3278-3275, 3260-3255 Gold strategy idea suggests shorting at 3291-3293, perfectly capturing the rebound high point! Smoothly reached the profit target of 3275, gaining 18pips! If you are not able to flexibly respond to the market in trading, and are not good at adjusting your trading ideas and rhythm in time with the market rhythm, you can pay attention to the bottom notification 🌐 to get more specific operation details and strategy updates. Let us work together to flexibly and steadily pursue more profits in the ever-changing market!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
High-level fluctuations do not change the bullish trendThe 4-hour level shows that the gold price turned to high-level fluctuations after testing the upper track under pressure yesterday. There is still room for upward movement after the structure is completed. The 1-hour moving average system shows a golden cross divergent bullish arrangement, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is sufficient. The gold price continued to rise in the morning and hit a new high. The trend maintains a bull-dominated pattern. Although there was a correction in the US market yesterday, it stopped falling and stabilized at the key support level of 3330-3325 and broke through the previous high, further confirming the short-term strength. Therefore, once it pulls back to the upper area of ​​3335-3325, it will constitute a dip-buying opportunity. The intraday operation strategy recommends that the pullback be mainly long and the rebound short. The short-term support below focuses on the 3335-3325 range, and the upper short-term resistance level is 3365-3375. Operation strategy: 1. Gold recommends long pullback near 3335-3325, with a target of 3350-3360. 2. It is recommended to short gold when it rebounds around 3365-3375, with the target at 3350-3340.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
7.2 Gold price continues to fluctuate! Non-agricultural positionGold is still temporarily maintaining a wide range of fluctuations in the daily trend, and the price is temporarily under pressure around 3360. In the 4-hour level trend, after continuous high-level narrow fluctuations, the technical pattern has begun to weaken. The short-term moving average has gradually flattened from the previous upward divergence. After the continuous small-scale high-rise and fall back, the upward momentum in the short-term trend is insufficient. In the hourly level trend, the current running space is very compressed, but in the small-level cycle trend, after continuous fluctuations, the technical pattern has begun to weaken. The price has begun to slowly move out of the narrow range of fluctuations. Pay attention to the short-term adjustment and repair.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
1