Crack-Up BOOM and BUSTHey everyone, Wave-Tech here. Join me on a historic journey as I reconstruct the Grand Super Cycle while diving into the historic and captivating world of Elliott Wave Theory!
This was to have been my maiden video cast—it didn't turn out as well as I hoped. Time got away from me, and the video ended abruptly before I could finish.
Rather than redoing it, I decided to keep the first and most authentic take intact for better or worse.
I made it private so that I could review it before publishing; however, I let too much time pass and was unable to change the setting back to public from private .
You can view the private video HERE :
The accompanying text is beneath the chart below:
In the simplest terms, Elliott Wave Theory is a measure of market psychology and sentiment coupled with Fibonnaci ratios designed to create a structural framework for determining at what stage of advance or decline a given market is in.
The basic premise for inherent advance and progress is three steps forward (impulse waves 1, 3, and 5) and two steps back (corrective waves 2 and 4).
According to Elliott, there are 9 degrees of trend, all of which are fractal in nature. The largest is the Grand Super Cycle, and the smallest is the Sub-Minuette.
Today, we’re exploring a yearly bar chart of the S&P, which covers trends at the Super Cycle and Cycle degree, revealing the pending culmination of a Grand Super Cycle—a colossal trend spanning centuries.
Buckle up as we unravel the rhythms of the stock market's epic ride!
The SUPER CYCLE:
Let’s start with the big picture: five waves of advance at the Super Cycle degree.
According to Ralph Nelson Elliott, with the sole exception of the GRAND SUPER CYCLE, the Super Cycle is the largest of all trends, a monumental set of impulsive and corrective waves that will set the tone and punctuate Grand Super Cycle terminals for Centuries to come—or at least through the fall of Empires or Civilizations.
Each of these waves tells a story of growth, correction, and renewal. The current Grand Super Cycle has been shaping markets and Nations for over a century. We can see this Grand Super Cycle unfolding in waves of Super Cycle dimension.
WAVE COUNTS:
The chart highlights five waves at Super Cycle degree: the first lasted 52 years with a gain of more than 1000%, the third stretched 68 years with a staggering 33,336% gain, and the fourth, a shorter 9-year span, saw a -57.06% loss, which marked the GFC low in 2009.
We are currently in the fifth Super Cycle wave, which is still unfolding and could mark the end of this Grand Super Cycle at any moment.
In contrast, the post-GFC "everything bubble" Crack-Up BOOM can persist to the upper trend channel boundaries noted near 18k and 35k.
Zooming in, we encounter the fractal Cycle degree waves comprising Super Cycle (III). Take Cycle Wave III and Cycle V, both 26 years long, delivering gains of 1,191% and 2,313% respectively.
And from the Super Cycle wave (IV) low in 2009, we are 16 years into Super Cycle Wave V, with an impressive 872% gain as of September 5, 2025.
This current wave could easily extend further, but its length is sufficient to suggest we may be nearing a pivotal turning point that might end the Grand Super Cycle with a sufficient black swan trigger.
The Fourth Turning:
Now, let’s touch briefly on the 85-year cycle, a rhythm that syncs beautifully with the concept of the "fourth turning"—a period of crisis and transformation.
The last one kicked off in 1945, post-World War II, ushering in the rules-based order that America and the West thrived in—an order that is arguably destined to end by 2030 if it hasn't already. This turning cycle hints at a historic shift on the horizon, or one that is currently already underway.
THE RSI:
Glance at the lower pane of the chart, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a tale of caution. Since 1955, we’ve endured 16 long years of multiple bearish divergences—times when the market’s price and momentum didn’t align, signaling trouble ahead.
I like to call this the bearish divergences that cried wolf for nearly a generation! Note that it wasn't until the RSI closed beneath the mid-line that the sell-off into the 1974 low registered an oversold reading.
We saw the RSI fail again upon the new highs in 1993-94 following the highs in 1987.
1995 kicked off the infamous five years of irrational exuberance, which led to the tech bubble peak and subsequent crash into the 2002 low.
Not to be outdone by the 2000 blow-off top, the 2002 low ushered in yet another five years of irrational exuberance, culminating right in time for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This time, the RSI finally got it right on the first go round.
Currently, against the highs printed in 2021, the V-shaped snap-back rally following the mini bear market of 2022, the move to new highs in 2024 has flagged a bona fide bearish divergence. It will be interesting to see how the RSI looks after the close of 2025.
These divergences are like red flags, whispering that the party might not last forever, even though it may.
Price Targets:
So, where might this Super Cycle Wave V take us in terms of price? Let’s apply a Fibonacci projection—specifically, where Wave V equals 4.236 of Wave IV.
Doing the math, from the Wave IV base at 666.79, we’re looking at a target of around 7,226-7,233 on the S&P 500.
That’s only about 10% upside from recent highs—not quite the blow-off top of 18K or 35K, but a target to approach with eyes wide open.
Now, let’s consider a sobering scenario:
If Super Cycle Wave V ends here, or north of 7K, signaling the close of Grand Super Cycle ONE, history might repeat itself with a bear market akin to 1929’s four-year plunge.
An 86% decline could drop the S&P to around 917—still well above the Wave IV low of 666.79, another common target, but a stark reminder of the cycles’ power.
In Closing:
Thank you all for listening and reading if you've gotten this far. This was my first video. I got blindsided and cut off by the time constraint, so I apologize for the abrupt ending.
The market’s cycles and waves are a dance of numbers and human spirit, and we’ve only scratched the surface of their grandeur and implications.
Stay curious, stay informed, and keep your life vests on while riding these waves, okay!
