CGC exiting grandsupercycle descending channel. Elliot FLAT abc

As title suggests,

CGC is exiting its long term descending channel after completing a elliotwave FLAT abc correction.

Bottom @ 1.272 Fib trend extension.


Is it exciting? I think it is trying, but hasn't broken yet. May continue sideways or down. I agree, sideways would break free, but still not bullish...?
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@Barkworth, I personall just want to see it break out the top of the descending structure. Need that confirmation! I imagine it will take off somewhat slowly still once it does begin breaking out.
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Barkworth thatsblatzphemy
@thatsblatzphemy, Yes, exactly :-)
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@Barkworth, could be just the beginning ;)
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Barkworth thatsblatzphemy
@thatsblatzphemy, bullish close today. If she pushes just a little higher on Monday, we may have a buy signal. I didn't expect it, tbh, when it failed another time.
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@Barkworth, so i know I said I was waiting for break of structure. I actually began buying some $16may1Cs and 16May22C's yesterday when it broke below the 200ema on the 30 minute a few hours before close. And so, I thought the same thing last time, anticipating the previous low was the bottom of the 5 wave move of the 3-3-5 EW flat ... which was when I originally drew this upward parallel channel. I exited when it broke, and so have been waiting for confirmation of the new low for the 3-3-5 completion.

I am quite certain this was the bottom, however, ya just never know do you?

Anyway, I started buying back in again yesterday on loss of the 30 minute 200 ema here And just notice how it held the 200 ema all the way up on that chart, and the 20 ema on the previous chart. Pretty clear someone has some auto buys on the loss of the 30 min 200ema . big money. Then when that minor trend line broke on the zoomed in chart. That was the confirmation I was looking for. Expecting a little retest, then move up to that major trend line, and back down to form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders that has yet to take place.

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Barkworth thatsblatzphemy
@thatsblatzphemy, That is an interesting play. I wasn't in yet, but when it broke that line there, I also thought it would break lower. I was planning to assess further as it would drop, but anticipated a move to $12-ish, based on Trend Based FIB Extension of a recent swing. Those tend to play out for me.

I'm on the fence with CGC. I know that STZ is big game and with Klein on board, they're certainly going to make some decent moves, but the current market cap is the highest in the game, and in my opinion, not fundamentally supported. I am a value investor, so I am looking for entries that support a longer term hold. That certainly means that decent assets, like CGC, get away from me some times, but that is the game.

I do see CGC go back to test that higher line there, shorter term. Longer term, I think it still needs to complete a Cypher, down to $8.This is a game of patience though, but I'll tell you that it worked with CRON, APHA and ACB. CRON still going sideways, struggling with $6 key resistance, actually a zone. APHA is on its way up. I bought that on confirmation after the Cypher completed.

Here is my APHA play:

Big Cypher (sorry for the mess, I'm looking for confluence in the details):

and a zoom in on that cluster of FIB levels:

I'm trying to learn EW, btw. So the counts there are probably wrong.

Not many people to share this kind of stuff with. Thank you very much for detailing your move.
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Barkworth Barkworth
The chart with the CGC Cypher didn't get copied. Here is what I see, and what I am waiting for:

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@Barkworth, hahaha. Yes a little cluttered perhaps! But I understand it's simply zoomed out inner details. I must admit, I am pure elliot wave technician. I accept that other methods to achieve similar goals exist, and that's an interesting cypher, looks like harmonics but I've never actually studied them. I find them in EW though, so I'm sure they are one in the same at heart. I like what you have for the 'D' finish on CGC. I was going to write about a possibility we are still in wave4 with a final wave 5 to new lows yet to come ... exactly what you have. This is still possible 100%.

but this is what I am seeing for APHA:

this is a pretty obvious one to me. but i'll be honest, once you begin to see elliot waves, they are all obvious.

Notice the red WXY. The 1st 0-W wave is itself a complex WXY ( 5 wave down, ABC flat(3wave move), 5 wave down) zig zag. This is followed by a simple zigzag wave 2, W-X . I did not label the ABC zig zag on the chart. And then you have the final 3rd X-Y move which is a 5 wave down completing the complex WXY flat (the big red WXY).

If you were unsure, a flat has a 3-3-5 wave structure. A zig zag has a 5-3-5 internal structure. If this doesn't make sense, read it again. Because it is correct. Also, here is the pdf of elliot wave theory:

This is where you learn elliot wave. Then on youtube you can go to which is Victor Manena, IMO the current GOD KING of elliot wave theory.

BAck to APHA...

This is where is gets interesting, when we zoom in on the final 5 wave move of the WXY (red) complex expanding flat, I can essentially confirm my count by being so certain of wave 1 and 2 here ...

Now zooming in to the wave 1 and 2 here :

I like to confirm the devil in the details. Examing that wave 1 and 2 of this 5 wave down, I am quite certain this correction is complete.

ANyway. I'm sure a lot of that is over the head. My only recommendation would be, read the PDF. Watch Victor Manena on youtube ( also follow on tradingview ! ).

Then re watch all those vids until what he's doing makes sense. It will, it really will. Seeing waves one day is an amazing feeling. You'll get there!

Don't be afraid to ask questions.
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thatsblatzphemy thatsblatzphemy
whoops, I misdrew the wave 3 completion of the final 5 wave down in the first image. Shouldn't change any analysis. But just incase it doesn't 'look right' to you.
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