NZDUSD BEARISHLooking at the NZDUSD its been bullish for a over a year but I think the bulls are loosing power and the bears are starting to take over.
From a MONTHLY perspective...
The most recent candlestick has a SHOOTING STAR characteristic. Price attempted to break the weekly resistance at 0.7450 but failed and price came back down. Price is below the monthly resistance also at 0.7300. Today (Friday 30th September 2016) is the last day of the month so things could change but is looking unlikely. Looking back at June, July and August candlesticks - all 3 failed to break the 0.7300 monthly resistance level. July and August candles are SPINNING TOPS - hinting the bulls are starting to loose power there is indecision between the bulls are bears.
From a WEEKLY perspective...
First of all, starting at the candle of 20th of June onwards we've had 11 different weeks where price has failed to break the monthly resistance! The week starting 5th September, price has a SHOOTING STAR characteristic. The following week (12th September) we have a BEARISH ENGULFING. Following that we have a SHOOTING STAR candle, price failed to break the monthly resistance again and retesting the trend line after the breakout.
From a DAILY perspective...
Price was in an uptrend as it was making new higher highs and higher lows. Also we had an inner ascending trend line guiding the price up. We hit a new highs on the 7th September but price failed to break the weekly resistance. The following day price retested the previous days high but failed to break the resistance again, falling down - engulfing the previous days price. Price came all the way down to the 0.723 level, giving us a 3rd bounce of the trend line. Price rallied up but failed to make a new higher high - stalling around the 50% fibonacci level. Price fell from that level, breaking the inner trend line strongly. What is significant about this is price has now failed to make a new higher low and created a new lower low.
With price failing to make a new higher high at the fib level (lower high) and taking out the most recent higher low at the 3rd trend line bounce (lower low) - this gives us a strong indication that NZDUSD is now in a downtrend.
Also on the 28th of September price created a daily hanging man formation hinting further down side.
TARGET 1 IS THE WEEKLY SUPPORT AT 0.7150 (LINES UP WELL WITH MY FIB EXTENSION)
TARGET 2 (IF WE GET A BREAK OF THE SUPPORT) WOULD BE THE MONTHLY SUPPORT AT 0.7000. The second point of the ascending inner trend line lines up well with the 0.7000 target and would give us a 3rd trend line bounce of out outer ascending trend line.
