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Harmonic Patterns

U.S. OR NOT U.S. — THAT IS THE QUESTION. THE WORLD AHEAD OF 2026U.S. equities (SPY, VOO) have been the superior theme since 2010, but by late‑cycle standards they now look expensive, while broad ex‑US (VEU) looks cheaper and more diversified, making a split allocation or modest tilt to ex‑US more compelling for 2026 than an all‑US bet.​ Historical backdrop since 2010 Over the past 15 years, i.e. from 2011 through 2025, the S&P 500 crushed international stocks. The study below shows total return of nearly 600% for the S&P 500 versus roughly 140% for the MSCI ACWI ex‑USA over that period, a more than 4x gap. Over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 delivered around 13–14% annualized versus about 5-7% for global ex‑US stocks. USA vs ex-USA over the past 15 years (in 'total return' format) This outperformance was driven heavily by U.S. mega‑cap tech and growth names, which benefited from dominant platforms, ultra‑low rates and a strong dollar. International markets, dominated by value‑heavy sectors like financials, energy and traditional industrials, lagged as growth and tech re‑rating concentrated in the U.S.​ How SPY/VOO look now AMEX:SPY and AMEX:VOO track the S&P 500, giving exposure to 500 large U.S. companies, with a heavy weight in technology and communication services. Ten‑year total price return for SPY since late 2015 is in the 230%+ range before dividends, reflecting an extraordinarily strong decade.​ After this run, U.S. valuations are elevated versus history and versus international peers, with the index price anchored in part by a small group of very large tech names. Research on fundamentals shows that median S&P 500 company earnings growth from 2019–2024 has actually been slightly weaker than the median stock in the MSCI World ex‑USA index, suggesting U.S. dominance has been as much about multiple expansion as superior broad‑based fundamentals.​ How VEU / ex‑US look now AMEX:VEU (Vanguard FTSE All‑World ex‑US) owns about 3,900 stocks across developed and emerging markets outside the U.S., with a modest valuation (PE around mid‑teens) and a dividend yield near 2.5–3%. Since inception its long‑term annual return has been around 5%, but in the last 5 years through 2025 its returns improved into the low double‑digit range per year, closing some of the gap with U.S. stocks.​ International stocks have historically moved in cycles of under‑ and outperformance versus the U.S.; the last period of clear international leadership was the 2000s, when non‑U.S. markets and emerging markets beat the S&P 500 by a wide margin. Today, ex‑US equities trade at a discount to the U.S. on standard metrics such as price‑to‑earnings and offer broader exposure to regions like Europe, Japan and emerging Asia that are less dominated by a single sector.​ Key trade‑offs for 2026 The core trade‑off is between momentum and valuation. The U.S. market offers proven long‑term winners, deep liquidity and strong past returns, but with higher starting valuations and concentration risk in a few mega‑caps. Ex‑US markets provide lower valuations, higher income and better geographic diversification, but carry political, currency and governance risks and a weaker recent track record.​ For a 2026‑focused strategy, a reasonable interpretation is that the 2010s U.S. dominance is unlikely to repeat in the same magnitude from these valuation levels, while the relative discount and stronger median fundamentals abroad give international stocks a better starting point for mean reversion. That argues not for abandoning U.S. exposure, but for moving closer to global market weights or even modestly tilting toward ex‑US (for example, pairing SPY/VOO with VEU) rather than staying heavily U.S.‑only.​ The main technical chart is a ratio between VOO/ VEU (U.S. market only vs World market ex. U.S.) indicates that recent 15-years U.S. stocks 'beast mode' rally could be close/ near an end, likely shortly rather then vice versa.
AMEX:VOO
by PandorraResearch
The Great Channel: The Great Reset from 9.5A Once-in-a-Decade Market Opportunity The Great Channel thesis presents a compelling long-term market structure that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. From a macro-technical perspective, current price action suggests we may be trading at, or extremely close to, the lowest valuation level we are likely to witness over the next decade. Even the next cyclical low, should it occur, may still print at levels higher than today’s price. This outcome is not guaranteed, but it represents one of the most probable scenarios on the table and one that now carries more conviction than ever before. The concept of the Great Channel first emerged in 2024 as a theoretical framework; however, evolving market behavior indicates that it may now be transitioning from hypothesis into structural reality. If confirmed, this channel has the potential to reprice the market into entirely new regimes. Importantly, this structure does not conflict with the broader cup-and-handle formation that many long-term participants are tracking. On the contrary, the two patterns may be complementary, with the cup-and-handle reaching full maturity only after a potential Great Reset event. Such a reset could occur near the extreme boundaries of the Great Channel, precisely where asymmetric risk-to-reward conditions are most favorable. From this vantage point, current levels may represent the most attractive strategic accumulation zone we are likely to see for many years to come. For patient, long-term traders and investors, this region offers a rare alignment of macro structure, technical positioning, and cyclical timing—an opportunity that may not present itself again for a very long time.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Dr-Nat
Bitcoin- Cyclical Bottom in the 80Ks leading to new ATH in 2026!I connected the major lows of the last two major corrections ever since BTC began its uptrend from the 37K swing low of January 2024. It appears BTC has completed the correction as per the cycle bottom to bottom half circles. Also, see how the price perfectly bounced off the diagonal support coming off from the January swing low! Next, I anticipate the price to make huge bullish pump to test the diagonal resistance! Next major cycle top I predict can happen in end of February to March 2026 time frame.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by sshussaini
1
GreenBayChart: Bitcoin Panic: Why Fear Is the Best Buy SignalAt GreenBayChart we have gone through every major Bitcoin crash and know: panic is not the end, but a buy signal. In December 2025 BTC is down 30 % from its October high of $125,000, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 15 — the “extreme fear” zone. Beginners sell in fear, while professionals at GreenBayChart use it as an accumulation indicator. At GreenBayChart the stats are simple: 8 out of 10 times in the last 5 years “extreme fear” preceded +50–300 % growth in the next 6–12 months. In this article GreenBayChart analyzes the sell-off trigger, what an index of 15 means historically, “smart money” behavior during crashes, past examples, and entry tactics for those who want to be in the 10 % of winners. BTC –30 % Since October: What Triggered the Sell-Off At GreenBayChart we record: since October 2025 BTC has lost 30 %, trading in the $86,000–$92,000 range. Triggers at GreenBayChart: Profit-taking after +180 % yearly rally ETF outflows of $4.2 billion in November–December Macro risks: slower Fed rate cuts, geopolitics At GreenBayChart this is a classic correction: after overheating (funding rate >0.08 %, RSI >80) comes a healthy pullback. At GreenBayChart we saw similar in 2021 (−53 %) and 2024 (−42 %) — both times followed by new ATHs. Fear & Greed Index at 15: What It Means Historically At GreenBayChart the Fear & Greed Index is our favorite contrarian indicator. Level 15 — “extreme fear” — occurred only 8 times in 5 years: March 2020 (index 8) — BTC $3,850 → +1600 % to peak September 2021 (index 12) — $40,000 → $69,000 (+72 %) June 2022 (index 7) — $17,600 → $73,000 (+315 %) At GreenBayChart average growth after index <20 — +220 % in the next 12 months. Now at GreenBayChart the index is 15 — the zone where retail capitulates and “smart money” accumulates. “Smart Money” Behavior in Crashes: Accumulation or Flight? At GreenBayChart we track whales via Glassnode and Arkham: Exchange outflows: +48,000 BTC to cold wallets in November–December Institutions: ETF inflows slowed but didn’t turn negative (except short-term rotation) Miners: sales reduced post-halving At GreenBayChart this is an accumulation signal: whales buy on retail fear. Example from GreenBayChart: in 2022 whales bought 1.2 million BTC at $16,000–$25,000 — then price +300 %. History: 8 Times in 5 Years Panic Turned into Growth At GreenBayChart the stats are compelling: 2018 — index 5 → +1200 % 2020 — index 8 → +1600 % 2021 — index 12 → +72 % 2022 — index 7 → +315 % 5–8. Local panics 2023–2025 — average +85 % growth At GreenBayChart conclusion: panic is not the cycle end, but its bottom. Entry Tactics: DCA, Limit Orders, Staged Allocation At GreenBayChart we recommend three approaches: Enhanced DCA: weekly buys $500–$2,000 + double on levels $80K and $74K Limit orders: 30 % at $86K, 40 % at $80K, 30 % at $74K Staged allocation: 50 % cash in stablecoins, phased entry on rebound confirmation At GreenBayChart clients with this tactic in 2022 bought average $22,000 — profit +300 % to peak. Final Word from GreenBayChart Panic is not an enemy, but an ally of the patient investor. At GreenBayChart we see: when everyone is afraid — the bottom is forming. Retail sells on fear, “smart money” buys. History shows: 8 out of 8 times “extreme fear” turned into growth. The main thing is to think like a professional, not the crowd: keep liquidity, enter according to plan, don’t give in to emotions. At GreenBayChart our clients are already using this panic for accumulation — and preparing for the new rally.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by HCN-News12
Bullish Trend CRT.UN (CT Real Estate Investment Trust) is showing modest upside potential, but analysts currently rate it as a “Hold” rather than a strong bullish buy. Price targets suggest limited growth, supported by stable dividends and defensive retail-linked assets. Analyst Outlook Consensus Rating: Analysts overwhelmingly rate CRT.UN as Hold. Out of 6 analysts, none recommend “Buy” and none recommend “Sell”. Price Targets: Average 12-month target: C$17.00, representing about 7.26% upside from the current price of ~C$15.85. Range: C$16.50 – C$17.50, showing limited but steady growth expectations. Why Investors See Upside Defensive Portfolio: CRT.UN’s properties are largely leased to Canadian Tire, a stable anchor tenant, which provides predictable rental income. Dividend Yield: Around 5.95%, which is attractive for income-focused investors. Recent Performance: Year-to-date change of +11.48%, showing resilience in a volatile market. Technical Support: Key support levels around C$15.79 – C$16.00 suggest downside protection, while resistance sits near C$16.42
TSX:CRT.UNLong
by mohammed-homsi
1
USDCAD-Clean Bearish Trend | Support Break as a Sell TriggerBased on yesterday’s analysis, the chart is showing a clean and well-structured bearish trend, with market structure still clearly favoring sellers. Price has now reached a key support level, and a confirmed break of this support could provide a very strong sell trigger. If this level breaks convincingly, we expect price to move toward the next support zone identified on the 4-hour timeframe, which would serve as a logical target for this setup. Ideally, the breakout should be confirmed by a strong bearish candle closing below support to reduce the risk of a fake breakout. Additionally, any short-term consolidation or compression before the breakdown could act as fuel for a sharp bearish move. As long as this support fails to hold, the primary bias remains bearish, and our focus stays on identifying short opportunities.
Short
by PouyanFa
USDCHF – Compression Phase Before a Potential BreakoutSince yesterday’s analysis, price has continued to trade inside a smaller range, and this price compression itself is a strong signal that a sharp move may be approaching. A breakout from this range — in either direction — can define the short-term market direction. My preferred scenario is a downside breakout, as it aligns perfectly with the higher-timeframe bearish trend and the overall market structure. For that reason, I’ve placed a Sell Stop below the range support, so if a sudden impulsive move (whale-driven breakout) occurs, I won’t miss the trade. It’s important that the breakout comes with a strong candle and ideally increased momentum or volume to reduce the risk of a fake move. Until that confirmation appears, patience is key and we let the market reveal its next direction.
Short
by PouyanFa
Bitcoin at a Decision Point: Range First, Breakdown Later?After a pullback from the $80,000 area, Bitcoin rallied toward the $95,000 zone. However, following this move, price resumed its bearish leg and is now moving back toward the $85,000 level. The key question at this point is whether this zone can act as a meaningful support and stabilize price, or if selling pressure will continue. As I have mentioned before, my higher-timeframe bias on Bitcoin remains bearish. From a broader perspective, I still consider the $60,000–$70,000 range as the primary downside target. That said, bearish momentum has recently weakened. As a result, in the short term, Bitcoin is likely to experience range-bound volatility between $85,000 and $95,000 over the coming days. A clean break below $80,000 does not appear likely in the near term, unless a major fundamental or macro news event triggers renewed strong selling pressure.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Ario_pinelab
The price of gold will rise above $5,000!Technical analysis: The Price-action has reversed following the #4,262.80 local Low's making Hourly 4 chart an aggressive Ascending Channel which is not against my Short to Medium-term expectations. However I am still expecting on the Medium-term the Daily chart's Ascending Channel no limits towards #5,100.80 benchmark, posing as well as an retracement level which on (1W) Weekly chart will form possible Annual Ultimate High's, however Short-term Targets are intact / #4,352.80 / #4,402.80.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mohamed-Ayman11
Lingrid | GOLD Buying Opportunity From Swap Zone XAUUSD is still trading within a well-defined rising channel, with the latest push printing a higher high before stalling inside the upper resistance band. The subsequent retracement appears controlled, with price rotating back into the former swap zone rather than breaking structure. This pullback looks more like digestion than distribution, as higher-timeframe trend alignment remains intact. If buyers react around the 4,260 area where trend support and prior balance overlap, GOLD might regain upside traction and attempt another advance toward 4,335. The current zone could act as a springboard if demand absorbs the retracement pressure. ➡️ Primary scenario: support holds at 4,260 → continuation toward 4,335. ⚠️ Risk scenario: a decisive breakdown below 4,235 may open room toward the 4,220 support. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by hpknwv
A pullback is a buying opportunity.Technical Analysis: Oversold Rebound + Solid Key Support The $86,100 level is at a point of multiple bullish technical indicators: ① The daily RSI has fallen to around 32, approaching the oversold threshold (30). After the 4-hour candlestick broke below the lower Bollinger Band, historical patterns suggest an over 80% probability of a "return to the channel after breaking the band," indicating strong short-term rebound potential; ② The key support system is solid. $83,680 is the confluence of the 100-week SMA and the long-term upward trend line, representing strong structural support. The $85,000-$85,500 range has formed a support platform with significant buying interest, having been tested multiple times without breaking; ③ The daily MACD histogram is continuously shrinking, and the DIF and DEA are about to form a golden cross. The 4-hour chart shows decreasing volume and increasing accumulation, indicating complete exhaustion of downward momentum and a clear rebound signal. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：85000-86000 tp:88000-90000-92000
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DylanGoldman
Gold is poised for a breakout.Bullish Core Support: Triple Drivers Bolster the Bottom Policy and Liquidity Support: The Federal Reserve implemented its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, and simultaneously initiated a technical balance sheet expansion by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds. This high level of purchases will be maintained for several months, effectively supplementing market liquidity and pushing down the US dollar index. Despite policy disagreements, the underlying logic of the easing cycle and liquidity support remains unchanged, reducing the cost of holding gold. Central Bank Gold Purchases Provide Strong Support: The global central bank gold buying spree continues, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months. In October, global central banks net purchased 53 tons of gold (a 36% increase month-on-month), with countries like Poland and Brazil continuing to increase their holdings. This national-level gold demand provides strong support. Global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive months, with over 700 tons added in 2025, indicating strong institutional confidence in gold allocation. Technical Support Confluence: The $4287 level corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level on the hourly chart and is close to the short-term oscillation lower bound of $4288-$4290, forming a technical support confluence. The 4-hour chart MACD shows a bullish crossover and high-level oscillation, and the stochastic oscillator is repairing upwards, indicating clear short-term rebound momentum and strong resistance to price declines. Gold trading strategies buy：4280-4290 tp:4300-4320-4350
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DylanGoldman
Gold Intraday SignalsGold maintained a high-range consolidation pattern today, with intense rivalry between bulls and bears. While the broader uptrend from previous sessions remains intact, the price has undergone a phased pullback under the impact of bearish factors, and short-term upward momentum has weakened. On the resistance front, the key short-term resistance zone lies between $4,335 and $4,345, a level that has repelled multiple upward attempts. A decisive breakout above this zone would expose gold to the major resistance range of $4,350–$4,385, where $4,350 is a recent high-point pressure level, and the $4,380–$4,385 interval encompasses the historical peak. For support levels, the immediate focus is on the $4,265–$4,270 support zone, a critical support line from the prior uptrend. A breakdown below this level could trigger a further decline toward the $4,245–$4,255 range, and a decisive breach of that floor may spark a new round of profit-taking. In addition, the combined release of the U.S. October and November Nonfarm Payrolls report today is highly likely to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, thereby dictating gold’s near-term trajectory. Close attention should be paid to the data outcome. Trading Strategy: Buy 4280 - 4285 SL 4270 TP 4310 - 4320 - 4330 Sell 4335 - 4345 SL 4350 TP 4320 - 4310 - 4300
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by LouisJack66_trade