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Harmonic Patterns

Chart Overview (XAUUSD) - 15 MCurrent Price: $4,010.38 Indicators Used: EMA + VWAP Combo Strategy, RSI Divergence Indicator 📊 Technical Analysis: Trend Structure: Gold is currently ranging between $3,992 – $4,035 after a rejection from the upper resistance near $4,035. Price faced resistance at the VWAP upper band and is now consolidating slightly above short-term EMAs, showing neutral to mildly bullish sentiment. Support & Resistance Zones: Immediate Resistance: $4,013 – $4,024 zone Major Resistance: $4,035 (break above = bullish continuation) Immediate Support: $4,002 Major Support: $3,991 (key demand zone; below this = bearish pressure resumes) EMA + VWAP Insights: Price is hovering near VWAP, signaling indecision. The EMAs are slightly aligned upward, indicating a recovering bullish bias if price sustains above $4,005. RSI (49.00): RSI is neutral, showing a balance between buying and selling pressure. A breakout above RSI 55–60 could confirm renewed bullish strength. Volume Activity: Volume remains moderate, indicating a consolidation phase before a potential breakout move. ⚙️ Trade Setup (1:1 Example): 📈 Bullish Setup: Entry: Above $4,015 Take Profit: $4,030 Stop Loss: $4,000 Bias: Buy only above $4,013 confirmation candle. 📉 Bearish Setup (if rejection continues): Entry: Below $4,000 Take Profit: $3,985 Stop Loss: $4,015 Bias: Sell below $4,000 for 1:1 scalp move. 🧭 Summary: Gold is in a short-term consolidation phase around the $4,000–$4,015 zone. Price action suggests that buyers are defending the $4,000 support, but momentum is still weak. A breakout above $4,015 could trigger a quick rally toward $4,030–$4,035, while a drop below $4,000 might open the door to $3,991. ➡️ Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish above $4,005 | Bearish below $3,991
OANDA:XAUUSD
by carlos_fx2
Whipsaw to fresh support for EUR/USD?Following the BoJ’s lead, the ECB held all three key rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting yesterday – as expected – leaving the deposit rate at 2.00%. The decision should not have raised many eyebrows and reflects the central bank’s view that monetary policy remains in a ‘good place’. As you would have expected, guidance was pretty limited; the accompanying rate statement reiterated that the central bank remains on a ‘data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach’. In her press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted the economy’s growth despite headwinds, although she acknowledged geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, as well as France’s budget crisis and Germany’s delayed fiscal stimulus. As I am sure you are aware, eurozone inflation continues to meander around the central bank’s 2.0% target – we have September’s print landing later today – with Q3 economic activity growing by 0.2% (surpassing expectations of 0.1%), according to preliminary flash estimates, and unemployment remaining near historic lows. The market reaction to the ECB announcement was muted, though should the EUR continue to rally, this could eventually lead to another rate reduction, particularly if it threatens economic recovery. A stronger EUR increases export costs while reducing import prices, potentially compressing export revenues and dampening inflationary pressures. In terms of future policy cuts, most analysts I have spoken with believe the central bank is done and dusted with rate cuts, though money-market expectations suggest a potential 25-bp cut later next year. The focus now shifts to December’s meeting, which will offer updated quarterly economic projections. As for the technicals I am watching on the EUR/USD right now, we can see that long-term flow recently rejected monthly resistance between US$1.2028 and US$1.1930, with scope to continue pressing south until monthly support as far south as US$1.1457. With that in mind, a break below US$1.1540ish on the daily chart opens the door for a run on sell-stops to test support from US$1.1490. Given this support, and the monthly support positioned below at US$1.1457, this area could be a location EUR/USD longs make a show from. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FP Markets
XAUUSD Bearish Setup: Bear Flag Breakdown Toward 3,750XAUUSD’s 1D chart just cooled after a steep August–October advance, peaking near 4,333 before sliding under the 20-day MA (~4,091). Price is now coiling above 4,000, with a potential Bear Flag taking shape beneath the recent high. Resistance sits at 4,333, while short-term support is the pullback low at 3,988. Momentum has flipped soft: MACD crossed down and price is below the Bollinger midline, even as the broader trend (MA20 > MA60 > MA120) remains intact. Primary path: a daily close below 3,988 confirms the Bear Flag and opens a continuation move toward 3,850, then the MA60/major demand around 3,750–3,740. For shorts triggered under 3,988, invalidation sits cleanly back above the consolidation high near 4,095; acceptance below 3,950 would add follow-through risk toward 3,745. Alternative: if 3,988 holds and price reclaims the 20-day with a daily close above 4,100, buyers can press a squeeze toward 4,280 and a retest of 4,330–4,333. For longs above 4,100, a tight invalidation sits below 4,020; a decisive break over 4,333 would restore trend continuation. Levels to watch: Resistance 4,333; supply near 4,280–4,333. Support 3,988; demand 3,750–3,740. Triggers: break-and-hold <3,988 (bearish) or daily close >4,100 (bullish). This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
FX:XAUUSDShort
by bbqgio
Bullish continuation setup?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivo,t which s a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracemnt and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 99.10 1st Support: 98.40 1st Resistance: 100.38 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by IC Markets
Megaphone Pattern Before the Breakout — Wave 4 Exhaustion📈 Pair: BTCUSDT (1W / 1D View) 🔍 Pattern: Broadening (Megaphone) Formation 🌀 Structure: Macro Wave (4) within Wave (5) ⸻ Technical Outlook Bitcoin has been consolidating inside a megaphone (broadening wedge) pattern a structure often seen in wave 4 corrections. This phase has been choppy and emotional, shaking out overleveraged positions while institutions accumulate quietly. We’re currently testing the lower boundary of this formation, which aligns perfectly with the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the entire wave (3) leg. That confluence suggests this could be the final shakeout before the macro wave (5) expansion phase. ⸻ Key Confluences • 📊 0.382–0.5 Fib retracement from wave (3) high • 🧭 Trend-based Fib 1.0 projection aligns with the lower megaphone line • 🔥 RSI divergence visible on the daily and weekly momentum cooling, but structure intact • 🧱 Strong horizontal demand zone overlaps prior subwave (4) area textbook wave (4) behavior ⸻ What to Expect • Scenario 1 (Base Case): Quick liquidity sweep below support (~104–106k), followed by a reclaim and weekly close above 108k, confirming wave (4) completion. ➡️ Next target zones for wave (5): 150k–170k (Fib extensions 1.272–1.618). • Scenario 2 (Invalidation): Weekly close below 98k would extend the correction into a W–X–Y structure, delaying the next impulse. ⸻ Summary “They’re shaking the megaphone before the breakout 🎺 the final breath before expansion.” Wave (4) corrections are designed to test conviction, not break structure. If the megaphone pattern holds, the next move could be the parabolic end of this macro cycle.
by PhillyVee
Lets see if the math plays out.BTC Surge Mathematics – Oct 31, 2025 All calculations shown step-by-step. 1. Final Flush (Observed) - Date: October 31, 2025 - Local Low: $106,200 - Close: $108,800 - Support Zone: $105,500 – $106,500 → Within 0.28% — flush confirmed 2. Historical Flush-to-Surge Lag (2013, 2017, 2021) Cycle | Flush Date | Surge Start | Days Lag 2013 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 | 5 2017 | Oct 28 | Nov 2 | 5 2021 | Oct 27 | Nov 1 | 5 μ = (5+5+5)/3 = 5 days σ = 3 days (conservative) 3. Surge Ignition Window Oct 31 + 5 = November 5 68%: Nov 2 – Nov 8 95%: Oct 31 – Nov 11 4. Acceleration Phase: Exponential Growth Model P_t = 108,800 × (1.12)^w w = weeks from Nov 1 w | Date | P_t | % Gain 0 | Oct 31 | $108,800 | 0% 1 | Nov 7 | $121,856 | +12% 2 | Nov 14 | $136,478 | +25% 3 | Nov 21 | $152,855 | +40% 4 | Nov 28 | $171,237 | +57% 5 | Dec 5 | $191,785 | +76% 6 | Dec 12 | $214,900 | +97% 8 | Dec 26 | $269,500 | +148% 5. Final Timeline (Weighted Consensus) Input | Weight | Days | Date Seasonal lag | 60% | 5 | Nov 5 Support hold | 20% | 3 | Nov 3 Funding flip | 20% | 4 | Nov 4 Weighted mean = 0.6(5) + 0.2(3) + 0.2(4) = 4.4 days Oct 31 + 4.4 ≈ November 4 6. Confirmation Thresholds - Daily close > $107,500 - RSI(14) higher low on 1H/4H - Funding rate > 0.01% (8h avg) - Spot CVD > +$50M/hr → 3 of 4 = 90% historical surge probability Summary: Flush: Oct 31 | Ignition: Nov 4 | Model: P_t = 108,800 × 1.12^w | Target: $200k+ by Dec 12 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BTC SURGE MATHEMATICS – OCTOBER 31, 2025 1. FINAL FLUSH (OBSERVED) Date: October 31, 2025 Local Low: 106,200 Close: 108,800 Support Zone: 105,500 – 106,500 → Price flushed into support within 0.28% tolerance — flush confirmed. 2. HISTORICAL FLUSH-TO-SURGE LAG (PRIOR BULL CYCLES) Cycle / Flush Date / Surge Start / Days Lag 2013 / Oct 30 / Nov 4 / 5 2017 / Oct 28 / Nov 2 / 5 2021 / Oct 27 / Nov 1 / 5 Mean (μ): 5 days Sample σ: 0 days Conservative prior σ: 3 days (to allow for variability) 3. SURGE IGNITION WINDOW Observed flush (Oct 31) + average lag (5 days): Projected ignition: November 4–5, 2025 68% probability window: Nov 2 – Nov 8 95% probability window: Oct 31 – Nov 11 4. ACCELERATION PHASE – EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL Formula: P = 108,800 × (1 + r)^w where r = weekly growth rate, w = weeks since Nov 4, 2025 (expected ignition) Scenario / Weekly Growth / Target by Dec 12, 2025 / % Gain Conservative / 6% / 149,000 / +37% Base Case / 9% / 174,000 / +60% Aggressive / 12% / 201,000 / +85% Historical Q4 rallies (2021, 2023, 2024) support 9–12% weekly growth during early acceleration. 5. WEIGHTED CONSENSUS (TRIGGER TIMING) Input Factor / Weight / Days Lag / Weighted Days Seasonal Lag / 0.6 / 5 / 3.0 Support Hold / 0.2 / 3 / 0.6 Funding Flip / 0.2 / 4 / 0.8 Total Weighted Mean: 4.4 days → Expected ignition: November 4, 2025 6. CONFIRMATION CHECKLIST A confirmed surge requires 3 of 4 conditions to trigger: Metric / Threshold / Confirmation Signal Price / Daily close > 107,500 and above prior 3-day high / Trend reclaim Momentum / RSI(14) > 50 on 1H & 4H with higher lows / Bullish momentum Derivatives / Funding positive > 24 hrs and rising / Shift to long bias Spot Flows / Net spot inflows > 30-day 80th percentile / Institutional accumulation When 3 of 4 conditions align → ~90% historical probability of a short-term surge. 7. SUMMARY Flush confirmed: Oct 31 @ 106.2k Expected ignition (weighted mean): Nov 4, 2025 Ignition window (95%): Oct 31 – Nov 11 Model: P = 108,800 × (1 + r)^w Targets (by Dec 12): 149k – 201k depending on growth scenario Seasonal bias: Bullish through late Dec → early Jan 2026 8. NOTES * Historical sample (n=3) is small; σ=3 days imposed as conservative prior. * Seasonal analysis aligns with macro pattern: Q4 inflows + ETF optimism. * This model is probabilistic, not predictive — confirmation signals required before acting. * Adjust position sizing dynamically; invalidate if daily close < 105k.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by SnyperTA
Stop!Loss|Market View: AUDUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the AUDUSD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 0.65191 💰TP: 0.64101 ⛔️SL: 0.65706 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: Sell pressure remains particularly strong on the Austrian and New Zealand dollars, with these two pairs expected to see the most significant strengthening of the USD. Currently, there is an open gap near this year's POC level, and a breakout of this level (near short-term support at 0.65230) will likely trigger a downward impulse amid liquidation by buyers (their stop-loss levels). Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅ ❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
Short
by StopLoss222
UNDERSTANDING TRADING PSYCHOLOGY CYCLE Understanding the Trader's Psychological Cycle 1. Optimism: This is the starting phase where a trader sees positive market signs. They feel hopeful about the market's future direction. A new trade is placed with confidence, anticipating good results. 2. Excited: The trade moves in the trader's favor, and small profits appear. Confidence grows, and the trader feels validated in their analysis. They begin to anticipate even larger gains from their position. 3. Greed (Overbought) : This is the point of maximum financial opportunity and euphoria. The trader ignores risk, driven by a desire for excessive profit. This emotional peak often signals the market is "Overbought" and due for a correction. 4. Anxiety : The market shows its first significant sign of reversing. The trader feels nervous but holds the position, hoping it's a temporary dip. Confidence turns into uncertainty as profits begin to shrink or disappear. 5. Panic : The market falls sharply, and losses accelerate quickly. Rational thought is replaced by a desperate need to stop the loss. The trader feels trapped and overwhelmed, unsure of what action to take. 6. Fear (Oversold) : This is the point of maximum financial pain, often when the market is "Oversold." The trader is overwhelmed by fear and liquidates their position at a loss. This "capitulation" phase is often the bottom of the market cycle. 7. Hope : After the bottom, the market shows its first signs of recovery. Traders cautiously start to believe that the worst is finally over. New opportunities are considered, though still with significant hesitation. 8. Relief : The market recovery is confirmed as prices continue to move upward. Traders who held on feel relief as their positions return to profit. This positive sentiment builds and lays the foundation for the next cycle of optimism.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Michael_Gold_Insider
Bullish reversal off major support?The Ethereum (ETH/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 3,710/52 1st Support: 3,395.28 1st Resistance: 4,063.46 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:ETHUSDLong
by IC Markets
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could revert to the first support, which is a swing low support. Pivot: 111,191.38 1st Support: 104,980.51 1st Resistance: 115,531.59 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by IC Markets
Graph link (GLQ)Glq usdt Daily analysis Time frame daily Risk rewards ratio >3 👈👌 Target =0.0162 $ Technical analysis GLQ, as you can see in the image, had been moving within a descending channel for several months.🐻‍❄️ It eventually broke below the lower boundary of this descending support, signaling a potential drop to traders. Surprisingly, however, the yellow support zone you can see in the chart held very strongly — even after four separate tests, it did not break. This area will be the most important support zone for me, and I do not expect it to be broken at all. Even during the massive crash two weeks ago, when almost all coins experienced drops of up to 70%, this support remained intact.
Long
by Habib-Tafazoli