Harmonic Patterns
SHIB Faces Sell Pressure On the daily chart, Shiba Inu (SHIB) shows continued weakness as the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator stays below the zero line.
This reflects sustained capital outflows and strong selling pressure, suggesting that sellers continue to dominate the market.
Such negative momentum readings typically hint at fading bullish strength and raise the risk of a breakdown below key support levels if buy-side demand doesn’t return soon.
Bears Reload at Proven Seller Zone - Bulls' Rally Fades📊 **To view my confluences and linework:**
Step 1️⃣: Grab the chart
Step 2️⃣: Unhide Group 1 in the object tree
Step 3️⃣: Hide and unhide specific confluences one by one
💡 **Pro tip:** Double-click the screen to reveal RSI, MFI, CVD, and OBV indicators alongside divergence markings! 🎯
Title: 🎯 CRDA: Bears Reload at Proven Seller Zone - Bulls' Rally Fades
The Market Participant Battle:
Sellers established dominance at the 29.00 zone (Point 2) when price closed decisively below both Points 1 and 2, proving these participants as the market's controlling force. Bulls attempted a 50-bar counter-rally from the lows around 24.50, but this appears to be nothing more than a pullback within the broader 100-200 bar downtrend. Now, price has returned to the proven seller zone at Point 4 (29.00-29.75 area), where we're seeing immediate bearish reaction. The expectation? Sellers reassert control and drive price back toward the volume-weighted lows, targeting a retest of the 26.00-24.50 zone where institutional buyers may finally step in. This is a classic "return to scene of crime" setup where proven sellers get a second chance to short at favorable levels. 📉
Confluences:
Confluence 1: Hidden Bearish Divergence (RSI/MFI) 🔴
From Point 2 to Point 4, price action created a lower high in nominal terms, but BOTH RSI and MFI printed higher highs during this same period. This is textbook hidden bearish divergence - indicating that despite the recent rally, momentum is actually weakening and the uptrend is exhausted. The bulls couldn't muster enough buying pressure to break through overhead resistance, and momentum indicators are warning that this rally is running on fumes. This divergence pattern typically precedes significant moves lower, especially when it occurs at proven resistance zones. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 2: CVD Candles Bearish Divergence 📉
Recent price action made a higher high at Point 4, but the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) candles simultaneously made a lower high. This divergence reveals that institutional selling is outpacing buying even as price temporarily pushes higher - a clear sign of distribution. Smart money is using this rally to offload positions, creating a bearish undercurrent that retail buyers aren't seeing in the price action alone. When volume delta contradicts price movement like this, it's often the more reliable signal. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 3: Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis 📊
The 100, 150, and 200-bar lookback periods all confirm a sustained downtrend. The recent 50-bar uptrend appears to be merely a pullback (bear flag) within this broader downward structure. This is critical context - we're not trying to catch a falling knife at lows, we're shorting a failed rally attempt back into overhead resistance. The trend structure heavily favors continuation to the downside, with the recent rally representing a typical counter-trend bounce that's now exhausted. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 4: Harmonic Patterns (White Swan & Partizan) 🦢
Both the White Swan and Partizan harmonic patterns are active on this chart, both bearish formations that suggest significant downside potential. These patterns represent specific Fibonacci-based price structures that historically precede strong directional moves. With both patterns activated simultaneously at the resistance zone, it reinforces the probability of downward continuation. These harmonics align with the other technical factors, creating a convergence of bearish signals. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 5: Anchored VWAP Analysis 🎯
Using AVWAP anchored from Point 1, price pushed above the 2nd standard deviation but closed back under, now heading toward the 1st deviation without ever reaching the 3rd deviation. This is a classic institutional entry pattern - institutions often enter positions when price reaches or exceeds 2 standard deviations and then reverses. The failure to reach the 3rd deviation before reversing suggests distribution rather than accumulation. This AVWAP behavior indicates smart money likely entered shorts as retail pushed price to extremes. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 6: OBV Bollinger Band Pierce 📈
At Point 4, On-Balance Volume pierced the upper Bollinger Band line, which typically signals an overbought condition and potential reversal. When OBV extends beyond the upper band at resistance, it often indicates exhaustion of buying pressure and warns of an imminent downturn. This technical signal has preceded many significant reversals, and its appearance at the proven seller zone strengthens the bearish case significantly. ✅ AGREES
Confluence 7: Volume Profile POC Return 📍
Fixed Range Volume Profile shows that price returned to the Point of Control (POC) at Point 4, which represents the price level with the highest traded volume in the range. The POC often acts as a magnet and battleground level. With price reaching the POC from below and showing immediate rejection (confirmed by other confluences), this suggests sellers are defending this level aggressively. A failed breakout above POC typically leads to a move back toward the lower end of the value area. ✅ AGREES
Web Research Findings:
- Technical Analysis: Multiple technical forecasting services rate CRDA as "Strong Sell" or within a "wide and falling trend." The stock has broken down through key support levels and is trading near 52-week lows (2,426.77p), having declined approximately 35% from its 52-week high of 4,335p. Technical analysts note the stock is in a persistent downtrend with weak momentum.
- Recent Earnings/Performance: Q1 2025 showed 8% sales growth (£442m), and H1 2025 delivered 7% constant currency growth. However, revenue for full year 2024 declined from 2023 levels (£1.81B vs £1.92B). Operating margins compressed from 18.9% (2023) to 17.2% (2024). Company maintains full-year guidance of £265-295m adjusted profit before tax. CRITICAL: Q3 sales update scheduled for Thursday, October 16, 2025 - just 8 days away.
- Analyst Sentiment: MIXED signals. Jefferies maintains "Buy" rating with 3,200p target (13% above current price). Citigroup has "Neutral" rating. Deutsche Bank cut target from 3,400p to 3,000p. Berenberg cut from 3,800p to 3,100p. Several price target reductions occurred in July-August 2025 timeframe. Notably, there's insider buying activity (Chris Good purchased 1,000 shares, Jacqui Ferguson bought 393 shares in August).
- Data Releases & Economic Calendar: IMMINENT CATALYST: Q3 2025 sales update due October 16, 2025 (8 days from now). This could be a significant volatility event. Next full earnings: February 24, 2026. Company has been implementing £100m cost savings program through end of 2027.
- Interest Rate Impact: UK base rate currently 4.0% (cut from 4.25% in August 2025). Next BoE decision November 6, 2025. UK inflation at 3.8% (above 2% target), creating headwinds for consumer-facing businesses. Weak UK economic growth (~1%) pressures specialty chemicals demand. A stronger GBP could hurt CRDA's exports (60% of sales outside Europe).
- Additional Context: Activist investor Standard Investments holds 5.48% stake, potentially pushing for strategic changes. Company is focused on Consumer Care and Life Sciences segments after selling industrial businesses. Some analysts note CRDA "has destroyed the most wealth of all current FTSE 350 members over past 2+ years."
Layman's Summary:
Here's what all this research means in simple terms for this trade: Croda is a UK specialty chemicals company that's been struggling. While their recent quarterly sales numbers have looked okay (up 7-8%), their actual profits have been shrinking and their stock price has been crushed - down 35% from highs. The company is in the middle of a big cost-cutting program because margins are under pressure.
For your short trade, there's both good news and a BIG timing issue. The good news: Most technical analysts think the stock will keep falling, the fundamentals show declining profitability despite okay sales, and the stock is clearly in a downtrend. The concerning news: They're releasing Q3 sales numbers on October 16th - that's only 8 days away. These quarterly updates have been beating expectations lately (Q1 and Q2 both came in better than expected), which caused short-term bounces.
So what does this mean for your trade? You've got strong technical setups pointing down, weak fundamentals, and a falling trend on your side. BUT you're entering right before a major news catalyst that could cause significant volatility. If they beat expectations again, you could see a sharp move against your position. If they miss or guide down, your short would accelerate beautifully. This is a "high conviction, bad timing" scenario. The direction is probably right, but the timing couldn't be worse with that earnings catalyst looming. 🎯
Machine Derived Information:
- Image 1 (8H Chart with Volume Profile): Shows descending trendline from highs, volume profile indicating heavy selling at Point 1 (cyan/pink bars), and price currently at Point 4 near 28.33 GBP resistance zone. Clear visual of the "return to seller zone" setup. Multiple reference points marked showing the progression from Point 1 (initial breakdown) through Point 3 (lows) to Point 4 (current rejection area). - Significance: Provides clear visual evidence of the market participant battle and established resistance levels. - AGREES ✔
- Image 2 (8H Chart with Channel Overlays): Displays black channel lines, moving averages (red and cyan), and confirms the lower high structure from Point 2 to Point 4. Shows how price is respecting the downward channel and rejecting from upper boundary. - Significance: Reinforces the downtrend structure and shows price struggling at channel resistance, validating the short setup. - AGREES ✔
- Image 3 (Indicators Panel - RSI, MFI, CVD, OBV): Critical divergence evidence visible. RSI shows higher high with white trendline while price made lower high (hidden bearish divergence marked as "Bear"). MFI displays similar pattern. CVD Candles show declining blue trendline (lower high) as price rose. OBV piercing upper Bollinger Band at Point 4. - Significance: Provides quantitative proof of momentum divergences and volume exhaustion. Multiple indicators simultaneously showing bearish signals at the same resistance level is powerful confirmation. - AGREES ✔
- Image 4 (Daily/Longer-Term View): Shows the broader multi-month downtrend from ~34.00 area, with clear lower highs and lower lows pattern. Recent rally from 24.00 to 29.00 appears as a pullback within larger trend. Descending trendline from highs acting as resistance. - Significance: Essential context showing this is not a reversal attempt at bottoms, but a short opportunity at resistance within an established downtrend. The macro picture supports bearish continuation. - AGREES ✔
Actionable Machine Summary:
All four chart images tell a cohesive bearish story. The setup shows sellers established control at 29.00 (Point 2), bulls attempted a rally but couldn't break through, and now price has returned to that proven seller zone with multiple technical divergences flashing red. The 8H timeframe shows precise entry opportunities with clear resistance levels, while the daily timeframe confirms we're operating within a larger downtrend. The indicator panel provides irrefutable evidence of momentum exhaustion and volume weakness at this critical level.
For trade execution: Entry zone is 28.30-29.75 (current area where rejections are occurring). Stop loss should be placed above 30.00-30.50 to allow for some noise while protecting against a breakout above resistance. Primary target zone is 26.00-26.50 (volume support area), with extended targets around 24.50-25.00 if momentum accelerates (Point 3 area retest). Risk/reward is favorable given the proximity to resistance and distance to support zones. However, traders must be aware of the October 16th Q3 catalyst - consider reducing position size before this event or using wider stops to account for potential volatility. The technical setup is strong, but timing around earnings creates elevated risk. 🎯
Conclusion:
Trade Prediction: CAUTIOUS SUCCESS ⚠️✅
Confidence: Medium
Key Reasons for Success:
1. ✅ Seven Aligned Technical Confluences: Hidden bearish divergence (RSI/MFI), CVD divergence, multi-timeframe downtrend, active harmonic patterns, AVWAP institutional signal, OBV exhaustion, and volume profile POC rejection all point toward downside
2. ✅ Fundamental Headwinds: Declining revenues YoY, compressed margins (17.2% vs 18.9%), weak UK economic environment, and company implementing major cost-cutting program
3. ✅ Technical Consensus: Multiple forecasting services rate as "Strong Sell" with stock in "wide and falling trend"
4. ✅ Clear Market Structure: Established downtrend on 100-200 bar lookback, recent rally is pullback within larger trend, textbook "return to resistance" setup
5. ✅ Smart Money Signals: AVWAP showing institutional distribution, CVD divergence indicating hidden selling pressure despite rising prices
Key Risks/Reasons for Caution:
1. ⚠️ IMMINENT CATALYST RISK: Q3 sales update October 16th (8 days away) - this is the biggest risk. Recent quarters beat expectations, causing short-term rallies
2. ⚠️ Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Not unanimous - Jefferies "Buy" with 3,200p target, Citigroup "Neutral", sentiment is 50-60% bearish not 80%+
3. ⚠️ Already Significantly Beaten Down: Stock down 35% from highs, at 52-week lows (2,426p) - limited downside vs potential for relief rally
4. ⚠️ Recent Sales Momentum: Q1 +8%, H1 +7% sales growth - company showing operational improvement even if margins compressed
5. ⚠️ Insider Buying Activity: Executives purchasing shares in August suggests some internal confidence
Risk/Reward Assessment:
From technical standpoint, R/R is attractive: ~1.5% to resistance (29.75) vs ~8-12% to support targets (26.00-24.50 area), offering 5:1 to 8:1 R/R ratio. However, the October 16th catalyst introduces significant event risk that could trigger 3-5% moves in either direction within hours. The technical setup is sound, the fundamental backdrop supports downside, but the timing is problematic.
Final Recommendation: TAKE THE TRADE WITH REDUCED SIZE 📉
This is a technically solid short setup with strong confluence alignment and supportive fundamentals. However, the imminent Q3 catalyst (8 days away) requires position sizing adjustment. Here's the action plan:
Recommended Approach:
- Enter 50% of intended position size now at 28.30-29.00
- Set stop loss at 30.25 (above resistance, tight but reasonable)
- Primary target: 26.00-26.50 (8-10% downside)
- Extended target: 24.50-25.00 (13-15% downside)
- CRITICAL: Either close position before October 16th or use wider stops (31.00+) to handle earnings volatility
- Alternative: Wait until after October 16th Q3 release, then re-enter if stock rallies on news (potentially at even better prices)
The trade direction is likely correct - sellers appear to be defending the 29.00 zone and fundamentals/technicals support downside. But entering right before a known catalyst reduces the edge. A prudent trader would either: (1) take smaller position with wider stops, (2) close before the event, or (3) wait for post-earnings clarity. Don't let perfect technical setups override basic risk management around known catalysts.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5 stars - excellent setup, problematic timing)
The stars align technically and fundamentally, but the October 16th Q3 update creates a timing headwind that drops this from a 5-star slam dunk to a 4-star "proceed with caution" trade. Respect the setup, but respect the calendar even more. 🎯
Timing Clusters for Bitcoin Based on chart geometry, the vertical timing lines serve for intraday trading.
Ensure the price reacts at a support or resistance level when it hits a timing line.
Take profit on the next candle or at the next S&R level. Place stops on the opposite S&R.
It's the combination of these two factors that leads to higher rates of success.
META OCT 2025META 4H: Price is rebounding from the 700–712 demand zone after a sharp selloff. Reclaiming 707–715 would favor a gap-fill push. Overhead supply remains heavy at 750–770 (prior distribution/“14B sold” area). If buyers fail to absorb around 700, watch for a slide toward deeper supports.
Institutional read: Distribution visible between 750–770; potential absorption if 700–712 holds. Gap window 707–765 is the pivot for momentum.
Targets:
Upside: 750 first, extension 770 if gap fills.
Downside: 680 first, then 650; breakdown opens 610 gap-support.
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XLP OCT 2025XLP (4H) – Price remains in a short-term downtrend with repeated rejection at the descending trendline. Overhead supply at 81–82 has acted as distribution (notable ~$5.8B sold near 82). If buyers absorb on the next dip, the 75–72 area is the key demand to watch; a loss there opens room to 70 and the weekly 68.
Targets:
Upside: 79 → 81–82 on a clean reclaim above the trendline.
Downside: 75–72 first, then 70; extension to weekly 68 if selling persists.
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AVL has successfully moved above the low time frame - 08-10-2025AVL has successfully moved above the low time frame zone, showing renewed bullish momentum supported by increasing volume. This indicates growing interest and accumulation in this range — often a precursor to a larger breakout move.
📈 Low Time Frame Zone: Now acting as new support — showing price stability and strength.
🔊 Volume Increase: Rising volume confirms participation from buyers, suggesting the beginning of a potential reversal phase.
🎯 Next Key Targets:
$0.32 — first structural resistance and confirmation zone
$0.44–$0.50 — extended upside targets if momentum sustains
Technical Summary:
✅ Trend: Reclaiming structure above LTF zone
📊 Volume: Expanding (bullish signal)
🟢 Bias: Bullish
🎯 Targets: $0.32 → $0.44 → $0.50
Outlook:
AVL is showing early signs of recovery as it climbs above its low time frame range with increasing volume support. If this momentum continues, a move toward $0.32 could trigger a strong breakout phase targeting the upper resistance zones.
XRP/USD — Price Holds in Sideways Range Between 3.12 and 2.7The XRP/USD pair continues to trade within a medium-term sideways range between 3.1250 and 2.7344 (Murray – ). Last week, the pair tested the upper boundary following the start of the U.S. government shutdown but later rolled back, currently hovering near 2.8320 (Murray ).
So far, XRP’s monthly performance remains modest as investors favor Bitcoin and Ethereum amid ETF inflows and U.S. political uncertainty. The latest correction reflects profit-taking and mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next move.
While ADP employment data pointed to cooling labor conditions, Fed officials remain divided: some advocate for further rate cuts, while others warn inflation is still too high. The lack of new macro data due to the government shutdown adds further uncertainty.
Additional pressure also stems from Ripple’s unresolved banking license application, which missed its decision deadline without public comment. Despite short-term weakness, investor interest in crypto remains strong: capital inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at a bullish 60. Analysts note a steady outflow of tokens from exchanges — a trend often preceding price rebounds.
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Support and Resistance Levels
XRP remains trapped between 3.1250 and 2.7344. A confirmed break below 2.7344 could extend the decline toward 2.5391 (Murray ). Conversely, holding this level may trigger a rebound toward 3.1250 and 3.3203 (Murray ).
• Resistance: 2.9297, 3.1250, 3.3203
• Support: 2.7344, 2.5391
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Technical Outlook
Bollinger Bands remain flat, signaling consolidation. The MACD is flat near the zero line, showing weak momentum, while the Stochastic oscillator is heading downward but nearing the oversold zone, hinting at possible short-term recovery.
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Trading Scenarios
The main bullish setup suggests entering long positions after a reversal near 2.7344 or a breakout above 2.9297. Targets are set at 3.1250 and 3.3203, with stop-losses at 2.6200 and 2.8470, respectively.
If buyers regain control near support, the pair could once again retest the upper boundary of the range. The overall bias remains neutral-to-bullish while XRP trades above 2.73.
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Outlook:
XRP is consolidating inside a horizontal corridor. A sustained breakout above 2.93 could ignite a short-term rally, while a fall below 2.73 would expose the next support near 2.54.
2083 Technical Analysis: Breakout with Bullish ABCD Formation2083 (Power and Water Utility Company for Jubail and Yanbu – Marafiq)
Price has given a breakout from a long-term downward trendline with strong volume and a solid candle close above it, confirming the breakout strength. It has also formed a falling wedge and a bullish ABCD pattern near the breakout level. Price is trading above the 50 EMA and the 89 Fibonacci EMA(which has historically acted as dynamic support and resistance).
Buy 2 is positioned lower in case of a healthy pullback for a stronger average. Targets are aligned with recent resistance levels. If price sustains momentum and closes beyond TP2 with strong volume, potential upside could extend toward 64, 74, and ultimately 86 near the all-time high. A trailing stop is recommended to protect gains.
Recommended Levels:
Buy 1: 44.50 (CMP)
Buy 2: 40.00
Stop Loss: Closing below 36.00
Take Profit 1: 50.00
Take Profit 2: 56.00
Take Profit 3: Ride the trend with a trailing stop
Potential remains strong as long as price sustains above the breakout zone and the 89 EMA. Happy trading!
USDCHF H1 | Bullish Momentum Likely to ContinueUSD/CHF is falling towards the buy entry, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 0.7992, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 0.7969, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 0.8030, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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ENSUSDT – Final Pressure at Critical Zone: Buyer or Seller Wins?Overview
ENS price is currently at a decisive point — compressed within a descending triangle formation, narrowing right above the major demand zone between 17.5–19.5 USDT.
After a prolonged correction from its local highs, the market is now facing an intense battle between fading selling pressure and persistent buying defense around this key support.
The upcoming move will likely define the next major trend for ENS in the following weeks.
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Structure and Pattern
Main Pattern: Descending Triangle — signaling consistent selling pressure but also potential for a strong reversal if a breakout occurs.
Critical Zone: The 17.5–19.5 USDT area acts as a long-standing demand zone that has repeatedly held price throughout 2025.
Short-Term Dynamics: The series of lower highs forming the descending trendline indicates a phase of accumulation or waiting for a key catalyst.
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Bullish Scenario – Reversal from Demand Zone
If ENS manages to break above the descending trendline and close a daily candle above 24.15 USDT, it would confirm a valid bullish breakout from the pattern.
Confirmation: A daily candle with strong volume closing above the trendline.
Upside Targets: 24.15 → 27.7 → 30.67 → 37.6 → up to 47.9 USDT if momentum continues.
Strategy: Wait for a retest around the breakout area for confirmation. Maintain a stop-loss below 17.5 to manage risk.
Such a breakout could mark the beginning of a major reversal, especially if supported by rising volume and positive sentiment within the Ethereum Name Service (ENS) and Web3 ecosystem.
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Bearish Scenario – Breakdown from Historical Support
Conversely, if selling pressure pushes the price below the 17.5 USDT zone, the mid-term structure may shift into a bearish continuation.
Confirmation: A daily close below 17.5 with strong volume.
Downside Targets: 15.0 → 12.0 → potential retest of the historical low at 11.9.
Strategy: Consider short positions after a breakdown and retest of the former support-turned-resistance area.
A confirmed breakdown below this demand zone would reinforce the narrative that buyers are losing control, opening the door to a new downward trend phase.
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Technical Conclusion
ENS is currently at a critical inflection point — the 17.5–19.5 zone represents the buyers’ last stand.
A breakout above the descending trendline could ignite a significant rally toward 30–37 USDT,
while a breakdown below the demand zone could extend the correction into the 12–15 USDT range.
Watch price reaction and volume within the yellow zone, as it will determine the winner of this crucial market battle.
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#ENS #ENSUSDT #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #DescendingTriangle #SupportResistance #BreakoutTrading #SwingTrade #Web3 #EthereumNameService #CryptoTrading
SOL/USD — Solana Consolidates Before Potential BreakoutAfter forming a local top in September within the red resistance box and printing a clear M-pattern, Solana (SOL) experienced a strong pullback. The price briefly dropped below both the 50-day EMA and the psychological $200 level. However, buyers quickly stepped in, pushing SOL back above the 50 EMA — a key signal that the token has reentered its broader bullish trend.
Currently, SOL is consolidating tightly between $225–$235. The heatmap reveals liquidity building just below this range — a short dip could sweep that area before continuation higher. Above the current price, liquidity clusters are even denser, suggesting that once momentum returns, Solana could accelerate to test upper resistance zones.
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Momentum and Indicators
The MACD continues to show bullish momentum, while the RSI holds steady above the 50 line — both confirming an intact bullish structure. As long as SOL trades above the 50 EMA, the broader setup remains positive. A brief dip would likely act as a healthy correction within trend, offering fresh long opportunities.
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4H Chart Structure
On the 4-hour chart, Solana maintains strong technical posture. Liquidation maps show a neutral delta, meaning long and short positions are balanced. The MACD stays flat but constructive, with no visible bearish divergence. The RSI remains above 50, reflecting ongoing buying pressure.
The 50 EMA acts as dynamic trend support, guiding price upward. Structurally, an ascending triangle is forming — a classically bullish continuation pattern. A breakout above the upper trendline would likely trigger a move toward the red resistance box near the recent high.
If Bitcoin enters a correction phase and drags the market lower, traders should watch the green support zone closely for potential rebounds.
⸻
Outlook
Overall, Solana’s technical setup remains strong. The combination of a rising EMA structure, constructive momentum indicators, and the ascending triangle formation all point toward a potential continuation of the uptrend.
The key catalyst remains Bitcoin’s strength — as long as BTC holds, SOL could soon resume its rally toward new highs.
Exchange Rate Secrets1. What Are Exchange Rates and Why They Matter
An exchange rate is simply the price of one currency in terms of another. For instance, if $1 = ₹84, that means one US dollar can buy eighty-four Indian rupees.
But this number isn’t just a conversion figure — it’s a snapshot of economic power.
When a country’s currency strengthens, imports become cheaper but exports turn costlier.
When it weakens, exports surge but inflation might rise.
Exchange rates influence:
Global trade balances
Investment decisions
Inflation and interest rates
Tourism and remittances
Stock and commodity markets
Understanding these hidden levers is the first step to decoding the secrets of exchange rate movements.
2. The Real Players Behind the Curtain
Contrary to popular belief, exchange rates don’t move by chance. They’re often influenced — directly or indirectly — by a select few economic giants:
a. Central Banks
Institutions like the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Reserve Bank of India hold the real levers.
They manipulate interest rates to attract or repel foreign capital.
They intervene in forex markets to stabilize or deliberately weaken their currency.
They issue monetary policies that send shockwaves through global markets.
For example, when the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar usually strengthens — because higher returns attract global investors.
b. Institutional Traders and Hedge Funds
Major hedge funds trade billions in currencies daily. They anticipate policy changes and use leverage to amplify profits — creating massive short-term moves that can destabilize weaker economies.
c. Governments
Sometimes, governments quietly “manage” their exchange rates for strategic reasons. China, for example, has often been accused of keeping the Yuan undervalued to make its exports more competitive — a tactic dubbed “currency manipulation.”
d. The Market Psychology
Beyond data and policy, market sentiment — the collective emotion of traders — drives currencies. Fear of recession, geopolitical tensions, or even rumors can send exchange rates spinning faster than any spreadsheet can predict.
3. The Core Secrets Behind Currency Movements
Now let’s unlock the deep, often hidden mechanisms that move currencies. These are the five pillars of exchange rate secrets:
1️⃣ Interest Rate Differentials
Currencies tend to flow toward countries with higher interest rates.
If India’s rates are 6% while the US offers 4%, investors may convert dollars to rupees to earn better returns.
This inflow strengthens the rupee.
But here’s the twist: expectations matter more than reality. Even a hint that the Fed may raise rates can trigger massive dollar inflows — long before the actual hike happens.
2️⃣ Inflation and Purchasing Power
Currencies are mirrors of purchasing power.
If inflation is high in one country, its money loses value faster.
Low inflation, on the other hand, indicates stability and boosts confidence.
This is why nations with consistent inflation control — like Switzerland and Japan — often see their currencies appreciated as “safe havens.”
3️⃣ Trade Balances
Countries that export more than they import tend to have stronger currencies.
Why? Because foreign buyers must purchase the exporter’s currency to pay for goods.
For instance, Japan’s trade surplus has historically supported the yen.
Conversely, a nation running persistent trade deficits (like the US) faces downward pressure — unless offset by investment inflows.
4️⃣ Political Stability and Global Confidence
Political chaos often sends investors fleeing.
A coup, election turmoil, or policy uncertainty can cause sudden devaluations.
Meanwhile, stable governments with clear fiscal policies attract long-term investors — strengthening the currency.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the ruble initially collapsed. Yet, with aggressive capital controls and energy exports, it later stabilized — showcasing how government measures can rewrite currency fate.
5️⃣ Speculation and Market Manipulation
The most guarded secret: exchange rates aren’t always fair reflections of fundamentals.
Short-term volatility is often fueled by speculation — big money betting on future trends.
Speculators can move billions in seconds, pushing prices away from equilibrium.
Sometimes, their combined power even forces central banks to retreat — like in 1992’s “Black Wednesday”, when George Soros famously broke the Bank of England and earned over $1 billion in a single day.
4. The Hidden Mechanisms: Pegs, Floats, and Hybrids
Every country chooses how “free” its exchange rate should be.
A. Fixed (Pegged) Exchange Rate
Here, the value is tied to another currency, like the US dollar.
Example: Saudi Arabia pegs its riyal to the dollar to stabilize oil revenues.
Advantage: predictability for trade.
Disadvantage: vulnerability to external shocks.
B. Floating Exchange Rate
The value fluctuates based on market demand and supply.
Example: The US dollar, euro, and Indian rupee are managed floats.
Advantage: market-driven flexibility.
Disadvantage: volatility during crises.
C. Managed Float (Dirty Float)
Most modern economies use this hybrid system — allowing markets to move rates but stepping in occasionally to maintain stability.
These systems reveal another secret — that exchange rates are both economic tools and political weapons.
5. Currency Wars and Global Power Play
When one country weakens its currency intentionally, others often retaliate — sparking a currency war.
The logic is simple: a cheaper currency boosts exports and jobs.
But when multiple nations do this simultaneously, it can spiral into global instability.
2010s: The US accused China and Japan of undervaluing their currencies.
2020s: Nations quietly use quantitative easing (printing money) to keep currencies weak.
2025: As emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Indonesia grow, they’re joining this silent battle — balancing competitiveness with credibility.
6. The Psychological Side of Exchange Rates
Money is emotional. Exchange rates reflect not just economic numbers, but confidence.
When investors “believe” in a country’s future — its leadership, innovation, and growth — its currency rises.
Example:
The US dollar thrives during crises — seen as a “safe haven.”
The Swiss franc and Japanese yen surge when global uncertainty spikes.
The Indian rupee strengthens when foreign investors see long-term growth potential.
This psychological dance creates cycles — optimism, panic, correction — that drive exchange rate volatility beyond fundamentals.
7. Modern Secrets: Digital Currencies and Forex Algorithms
The 21st century has introduced new players and tools that redefine how currencies behave.
a. Algorithmic Trading
Over 70% of forex volume now runs on algorithms — automated systems that execute trades based on millisecond data.
These algorithms can amplify moves, creating sharp spikes or sudden reversals within seconds.
b. Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin and stablecoins have disrupted the concept of “sovereign money.”
Some nations fear them; others embrace them.
El Salvador adopted Bitcoin, while China banned it and launched its own digital yuan — a step toward controlling cross-border transactions.
The secret here: digital currencies could one day bypass traditional exchange rates altogether.
8. The Indian Rupee in the Global Context
India’s exchange rate journey is a fascinating case study:
Pre-1991: A fixed regime tied to the pound, later the dollar.
Post-liberalization: A managed float system with RBI intervention.
Today: The rupee reflects both domestic fundamentals and global capital flows.
Hidden truth?
The RBI quietly smoothens volatility through buying or selling dollars — maintaining competitiveness for exports while protecting inflation targets.
Future outlook:
Stronger digital economy
Growing exports (IT, pharma, energy)
Controlled fiscal deficit
All point toward a more resilient rupee in the long run — though short-term fluctuations will remain.
9. How Traders and Investors Decode Exchange Rate Secrets
Smart investors don’t just watch the numbers — they watch the forces behind them.
Here’s how they stay ahead:
Monitor central bank statements — “forward guidance” often signals currency direction.
Track bond yield differentials — a widening gap means a stronger high-yield currency.
Follow geopolitical developments — sanctions, wars, or trade deals often move currencies overnight.
Use Volume Profile and Market Structure — to identify institutional footprints in forex charts.
Analyze capital flow data — especially FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) movements in emerging markets like India.
By understanding these undercurrents, traders can align with the smart money — not against it.
10. The Future of Exchange Rates: Toward a Digital Reset
Global monetary systems are entering a new era.
The next decade may witness a “global currency reset”, where traditional paper currencies evolve into central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
This shift could:
Reduce transaction costs
Increase surveillance and control
Challenge the dominance of the US dollar
Create new “exchange rate ecosystems” driven by technology rather than trade alone
In short, the secrets of tomorrow’s exchange rates may lie not in central banks alone, but in blockchain codes and algorithmic governance.
Conclusion: The Art and Science of Exchange Rates
Exchange rates are far more than numbers flashing on a trading screen.
They are reflections of economic strength, political will, psychological trust, and technological evolution.
The secret to understanding them lies in reading between the lines — connecting data with direction, policies with perception, and numbers with narratives.
As global markets evolve, those who grasp these hidden forces won’t just convert currencies — they’ll convert opportunities into fortune.
Because in the end, exchange rates aren’t just about money — they’re about power. 🌍💰
XAUUSD-GOLD at Cut n Reverse Area, Holds or Not??GOLD... Perfect move as per our last couple of ideas regarding gold.
Now market just made his current resistance area and that is 3987-3988
That will be our key level now n if market holds in that case we can expect a drop foen here otherwise not at all.
NOTE: we will go for cut n reverse again above that on confirmation..
Nasdaq Nears ATH as Volume DivergesFenzoFx—Nasdaq is up by 0.20% today. The majority of the gains were in the London session. As we approach the NY session, the price is getting closer to the $25,080.0 all-time high.
However, the cumulative volume profile signals caution. The indicator is making lower lows, while the price is in an uptrend. Therefore, we expect the price to dip in today's NY morning session.
In this scenario, we expect the price to close the opening gap, which rests at $25,000.0. The next support in focus is the October 2 and October 3 close price, $24,924.0. Please note that these levels can provide a discount price to plan long strategies.
Bitcoin analysisIt’s true that Bitcoin’s overall trend is bullish, but I don’t think it’s the right time to buy just yet.If you’re trading on the lower cycle, the 120,400 level could be a good entry point for a short position.
Keep in mind that the higher cycle is strongly bullish, so there’s a high chance of a fakeout — proper risk management is essential, or you should enter with reduced risk. ✅
Dollar Index analysisThe Dollar Index has quite an interesting chart — on the higher cycle, it’s clearly bearish, while on the lower cycles, it’s showing bullish movement. This situation can significantly increase trading risk, making stop-outs more likely, especially on the Dollar Index itself and even more so on EUR/USD.
Right now, we need to see whether it can finally break through the resistance it’s been struggling with for several months and reach 100, or not. ✅