Gold is experiencing a volatile upward movement.Gold's Macro Drivers: Central Bank Policy Divergence + Strategic Buying, Unshakable Long-Term Support
1. Global Central Bank Policy Divergence: Cross-Market Hedge Opportunities
The current global monetary policy landscape is characterized by distinct divergence — developed economies lean toward easing while some emerging markets maintain tight stances, creating a favorable "risk-hedge + liquidity support" environment for gold.
- Divergent Policy Paths Take Shape: The Federal Reserve has continued its rate cut cycle, while the European Central Bank keeps rates unchanged but signals "adequate policy readiness" for potential adjustments . New Zealand’s central bank has cut rates to 2.25% and hinted at further easing. In contrast, emerging markets like Kazakhstan (benchmark rate 18%) and Turkey maintain tight monetary policies to curb inflation and stabilize their currencies .
- Dollar Weakness Provides Exchange Rate Support: This policy split undermines the dollar’s ability to sustain strength. The dollar index’s trend is constrained by the Fed’s easing cycle on one hand, and emerging markets’ high interest rates limiting capital outflows on the other . As gold is dollar-denominated, a weakly trending dollar reduces purchasing costs for non-dollar holders, directly boosting global gold demand .
- Dual Protection from Easing and Tightening: The "developed market easing underpinning + emerging market tightening risk hedging" pattern optimizes gold’s risk-reward profile. Easing policies inject liquidity into global financial markets, lifting asset valuations including gold . Tightening in emerging markets reflects lingering global economic risks, enhancing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset — creating a scenario where gold benefits from both liquidity abundance and risk aversion .
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2. Sustained Central Bank Gold Buying: Unbreakable Strategic Support
Global central banks’ structural gold purchases have become the core pillar of gold’s long-term bullish trend, forming a "floor" that prevents sharp price declines regardless of short-term market fluctuations.
- Prolonged and Intensified Buying Momentum: China’s central bank has increased gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, adding another 30,000 ounces in November 2025, pushing its total holdings to a record high of 7412 . Global central banks net purchased 53 tons of gold in October, a 36% month-on-month increase, with Poland, Brazil and other countries ramping up purchases . From 2022 to 2024, average annual net central bank gold purchases reached 1073 tons, doubling the proportion of global gold demand compared to the previous decade .
- Near-Universal Consensus on Future Buying: A World Gold Council survey shows 95% of participating central banks plan to continue increasing gold reserves in the next 12 months . This strategic allocation is driven by the need to diversify foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical tensions and weakened dollar credibility, making it resilient to short-term interest rate fluctuations .
- $4195-$4200: Consensus Buying Cost Zone: This price range has become the recognized entry point for global central banks . Historical data confirms that gold prices rarely fall below central banks’ average buying costs for extended periods — when London gold briefly dipped below $4200 in December 2025, it quickly stabilized at $4196.37 due to central bank buying support . This consensus zone acts as a strong technical and fundamental floor, with extremely low probability of a sustained breakdown .
Gold trading strategy
buy：4190-4200
tp:4210-4220-4240
sl:4180
