Get started

Harmonic Patterns

BITCOIN vs S&P500 Is the Bear Cycle correlation a myth?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has entered a new Bear Cycle while the stock markets remain near their All Time Highs (ATH). The general notion is that when BTC starts a Cycle (either Bull or Bear), the stock market, which on this particular analysis is the S&P500 (blue trend-line) follows suit. But how much truth is in it? Here we see those Bear Cycles since 2011. As you can see in 2011 and 2022 both BTC and the S&P500 dropped around the same time. In 2018 even though both started falling, the S&P500 recovered shortly after, even made new ATH but dropped again remaining volatile. On the other hand in 2014, the S&P500 kept rising, even though BTC was in a Bear Cycle. As a result, the above notion isn't 100% accurate, not entirely a 'myth' but for sure not a certainty. We even plotted all previous S&P500 sequences during BTC's Bear Cycle, on today's Cycle and as you can see the worst case scenario based on that is a 2022 type correction (grey fractal), which would bring the index back to the April 2025 lows. Bitcoin will most likely have a typical Bear Cycle, especially with the last two (2022 and 2018) being almost identical. So do you think the Bear Cycle correlation is a myth or not? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
10
$JBLMarket Performance and Recent Momentum In the latest trading session, shares of Jabil Inc. (JBL) advanced +2.18% to close at $218.72. This performance notably outpaced the broader market, with the S&P 500 gaining a modest 0.11%. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite appreciated 0.22%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight decline of 0.07%. Jabil's positive move suggests investor confidence ahead of its upcoming earnings report, potentially reflecting positioning based on anticipated strong results. Despite this daily outperformance, Jabil's stock has faced headwinds over the past month, declining 1.88%. This decline has underperformed relative to both its sector peers and the broader market: the Computer and Technology sector fell 1.07%, while the S&P 500 posted a marginal gain of 0.08% over the same period. This recent weakness may indicate sector-specific concerns or profit-taking ahead of earnings, setting the stage for a potentially pivotal quarterly report. Upcoming Earnings: A Catalyst for Reassessment All eyes are now on Jabil's forthcoming earnings release, scheduled for December 17, 2025. The report is expected to serve as a significant catalyst, clarifying the company's trajectory amid mixed recent performance. The consensus analyst estimate projects earnings per share (EPS) of $2.70, which would represent a substantial 35% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Revenue is forecast at $8.01 billion, marking a robust 14.6% year-over-year growth. For the full fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates point to earnings of $11.05 per share and revenue of $31.32 billion, translating to annual growth rates of +13.33% and +9.84%, respectively. These figures underscore expectations for sustained, double-digit expansion. Analyst Sentiment and Valuation Metrics Recent revisions to analyst estimates are a critical indicator of near-term business trends. While Jabil's consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past month, the company currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). This neutral rating suggests analysts are awaiting confirmation from the upcoming earnings before adjusting their outlooks more decisively. Historically, the Zacks Rank system has demonstrated a strong correlation between estimate revisions and near-term stock price movement, with its top-rated stocks (#1 Strong Buy) delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. From a valuation perspective, Jabil presents a mixed picture: Its Forward P/E ratio of 19.37 is slightly below the industry average of 19.59, indicating a marginal discount relative to peers. However, its PEG ratio of 1.39—which factors in expected earnings growth—stands above the industry average PEG ratio of 1.02. This suggests the stock's current price may already incorporate a significant portion of its growth premium, warranting close scrutiny of whether future results can justify this multiple. Jabil operates within the Electronics - Manufacturing Services industry, which is part of the broader Computer and Technology sector. This industry group holds an impressive Zacks Industry Rank of 7, placing it in the top 3% of all 250+ industries covered. This high ranking indicates favorable fundamental trends and positive earnings outlooks for the industry as a whole, which could provide a supportive backdrop for Jabil. Technical Analysis and Key Levels From a technical standpoint, Jabil's chart reveals defined support and resistance zones that will be critical in determining its near-term direction following the earnings release: Primary Support: The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near $206.83 represents the first key support area. A hold above this level would indicate underlying strength. Secondary Support: The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near $188.07 serves as a stronger, more critical support zone. A breach below the primary support could see the stock test this area, which would likely represent a more significant pullback. Upside Target: The main take-profit resistance is identified at $250. A decisive break above this level, likely fueled by a strong earnings beat and raised guidance, would signal a resumption of the primary bullish trend and open the path for further gains. Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment at Hand Jabil enters its earnings report at a technical and fundamental inflection point. While the stock has shown daily strength, its monthly underperformance and elevated PEG ratio highlight investor caution. The upcoming December 17th earnings release is poised to be the decisive factor, validating or challenging the current growth narrative. Strong results that meet or exceed the high expectations for EPS and revenue growth could catalyze a breakout toward the $250 target, especially if accompanied by optimistic forward guidance. Conversely, any disappointment may see the stock retreat to test its Fibonacci support levels. Investors are thus positioned for a high-convidence move post-earnings, with the company's immediate trajectory hinging on its ability to demonstrate that its growth justifies its valuation in a competitively ranked industry.
NYSE:JBLLong
by KalaGhazi
$LULUShares of the athletic apparel retailer Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) surged by 4.1% during morning trading, propelled by positive earnings results from fellow retailer Dollar General. The discount retailer reported third-quarter net sales of $10.6 billion, a 4.6% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by improved customer traffic. As a result, Dollar General proceeded to raise its full-year financial guidance, signaling stronger-than-anticipated operational performance. This optimistic report from a major national retailer was interpreted by the broader market as a sign of resilient consumer spending, particularly among value-conscious shoppers. Positive sentiment often flows through to related sectors, and in this case, it provided a tailwind for discretionary and apparel names—including premium brands like Lululemon—by easing fears of a near-term consumer pullback. After its initial jump, Lululemon’s shares moderated slightly, closing the session at $189.71, still up 3.2% from the prior day’s close. What Is the Market Telling Us? Lululemon’s stock has exhibited notable volatility over the past year, with 13 separate moves greater than 5%. In this context, today’s advance of over 3% suggests the market views the broader retail sector data as meaningful—though not necessarily transformative for Lululemon’s own fundamental outlook. Rather, the move reflects relief and a reassessment of macroeconomic risk, as evidence of sustained consumer activity helps offset concerns about discretionary spending erosion. This follows another recent positive move just 9 days prior, when shares gained 3% after analysts at BTIG reiterated a "Buy" rating ahead of Lululemon’s upcoming third-quarter earnings. BTIG maintained its price target of $303 per share, citing undervalued sentiment and expectations that results would meet or exceed guidance. That outlook was further supported by unusual bullish activity in the options market, indicating informed or speculative positioning in anticipation of a positive catalyst. Technical Perspective and Price Targets From a chart analysis standpoint, Lululemon’s price action is being monitored within a Fibonacci extension framework, which outlines the following upside take-profit targets: First Target: $221.64 (0.236 Fibonacci level) This represents the initial significant resistance zone, a breakout above which would signal regained bullish momentum. Second Target: $260.21 (0.382 Fibonacci level) A move to this area would indicate a stronger recovery trend and align closer with analyst price objectives. Third Target: $291.38 (0.5 Fibonacci level) This level serves as a more ambitious benchmark, approaching the upper range of analyst valuations and reflecting a scenario where both operational execution and market sentiment improve markedly. Conclusion In summary, today’s rally in Lululemon shares was less about company-specific news and more a sympathetic reaction to positive sector-wide data from Dollar General. It underscores the market’s ongoing sensitivity to consumer health indicators and its tendency to reprice discretionary stocks based on broader retail trends. While the move does not alter Lululemon’s core business narrative, it does reflect a slightly more favorable trading environment ahead of the company’s own earnings report. Investors will now watch to see if Lululemon can convert this macro-driven lift into sustained momentum by delivering results that validate both the recent analyst confidence and the technical pathway toward higher Fibonacci targets.
NASDAQ:LULULong
by KalaGhazi
2
$CRWV Riding the AI Infrastructure Wave on a Leveraged TightropeCoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) has rapidly ascended as a central and controversial figure in the AI infrastructure landscape. Often categorized alongside other "neoclouds" like IREN, which have pivoted aggressively towards AI workloads, CoreWeave exemplifies the explosive potential and inherent fragility of businesses built to capitalize on the generative AI boom. Its stock performance, characterized by dramatic surges and sharp corrections, has become a direct proxy for the market's oscillating hopes and anxieties surrounding AI's near-term profitability. As of late November, shares traded at approximately $73.12, a level that reflects both the company's staggering reported growth and the significant risks embedded in its financial structure. The Bull Case: A Critical, Scalable Enabler in a Supply-Constrained Market The bullish thesis, as articulated by analysts like Bernardo on Level-Headed Investing, centers on CoreWeave’s role as a vital intermediary in a high-demand, supply-constrained ecosystem. Strategic Positioning and Scalability: CoreWeave has successfully positioned itself as a specialized, high-performance cloud provider exclusively for GPU-intensive workloads, primarily generative AI training and inference. With a reported fleet of over 250,000 NVIDIA GPUs across 33 data centers, it operates at a scale that few competitors can match outside the major hyperscalers (Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS). This allows it to act as a crucial overflow and specialized partner for those very hyperscalers when their own capacity is limited. Hyperscaler Partnerships and Validation: The company’s growth is undeniably impressive, with revenue reaching $1.9 billion in 2024 and $1.2 billion in Q2 2025 alone. This trajectory is fundamentally tied to landmark partnerships with technology titans. Most notably, Microsoft accounted for 62-71% of revenue during this period, a double-edged sword that also serves as powerful validation of CoreWeave's technical capability and strategic importance. Similar contracts with Google and Amazon underscore its role as a key enabler in the AI arms race. Secular Demand Tailwind: Bulls argue that the demand for AI computational power is a secular, long-term trend that is still in its early innings. As AI models grow larger and more pervasive, the need for efficient, scalable infrastructure like CoreWeave’s is expected to compound, providing a multi-year runway for growth. The Bearish Counterpoint: Structural Vulnerabilities and a Commodity Trap However, a deep dive into the financials reveals a business model under tremendous strain, painting the growth story in a more cautious light. The Profitability Mirage: While revenue soars, profitability remains elusive. The company posts substantial GAAP net losses, driven by immense depreciation charges, interest expenses, and relentless capital expenditures. A headline Adjusted EBITDA margin of 62% is misleading; it adds back the massive depreciation on its GPU fleet, a very real economic cost. Crucially, cash flow from operations is deeply negative, revealing a core disconnect: the business is growing on paper but consuming, not generating, cash. A Leveraged House of Cards: CoreWeave’s expansion is almost entirely debt-financed. With total borrowings of $11.17 billion, its balance sheet is leveraged against its primary asset: GPUs. This financing relies heavily on Delayed-Draw Term Loan (DDTL) facilities, where credit is extended based on the value of future customer contracts. This creates a perilous cycle: growth requires new debt, which is secured by new contracts, which require more GPUs, which depreciate rapidly. The model is acutely vulnerable to any disruption in demand or credit markets. Customer Concentration and Hardware Obsolescence: The extreme reliance on Microsoft represents an existential risk. Any slowdown, renegotiation, or insourcing of capacity by Microsoft could immediately trigger a liquidity crisis. Furthermore, the business is trapped in a perpetual capital expenditure loop. NVIDIA’s relentless innovation cycle (e.g., Blackwell GPUs replacing Hopper) means CoreWeave’s core assets are constantly depreciating, forcing it to reinvest nearly all its incoming cash into new hardware just to stay competitive, with no residual profit. Lack of a Moat: Critics argue CoreWeave’s service is fundamentally a commodity—it rents access to another company’s (NVIDIA’s) chips. It lacks a proprietary software ecosystem, a loyal developer community, or unique intellectual property that would create customer stickiness. Its primary advantage, scale, is expensive and replicable by well-capitalized entrants. Technical Perspective and Price Targets From a technical analysis standpoint, the $60 - $70 zone is identified as a critical primary support area. This region is expected to be a major battleground between bulls defending the long-term thesis and bears focusing on financial fragility. On the upside, the bullish trajectory projects three key take-profit targets: Target 1: $100 – A breakout level representing a significant advance and a test of prior highs. Target 2: $110 – A further extension signaling sustained momentum. Target 3: $120 – An ambitious target that would imply a successful navigation of near-term risks and a market re-rating based on proven execution towards profitability. Conclusion: A High-Stakes Bet on Execution and Endurance In summary, CoreWeave represents a quintessential high-risk, high-reward investment within the AI megatrend. The bullish thesis rests on its irreplaceable role as a scalable infrastructure provider in a supply-constrained market, validated by elite partnerships. The bearish perspective warns of a structurally flawed business model burdened by extreme leverage, customer concentration, and the relentless financial treadmill of hardware obsolescence. The investment decision ultimately hinges on a belief in management’s ability to use its current scale and partnerships to bridge towards sustainable cash flow and a more diversified client base before a shift in the credit cycle or AI demand curve exposes its vulnerabilities. For investors, CRWV is not merely a bet on AI demand, but a specific bet on CoreWeave’s financial engineering and operational execution in the face of monumental fixed costs and debt obligations.
NASDAQ:CRWVLong
by KalaGhazi
Unity Software Inc. (U): A Strategic Turnaround at an Inflection$U Unity Software Inc. (U) presents a compelling, albeit high-risk, bullish investment case centered on a decisive corporate turnaround, strategic repositioning, and exposure to powerful secular trends in digital content creation. As of late November, shares were trading around $42.52, reflecting a forward P/E of approximately 90.91—a valuation that underscores high growth expectations but also the significant operational improvements already acknowledged by the market. The stock's dramatic journey—from its IPO at $52, soaring to a 2021 peak of $197, plunging to a 2024 low of $15, and now stabilizing near $43—mirrors the company's own narrative of immense potential clashing with execution and monetization challenges. The Core Bull Case: Leadership, Focus, and Strategic Pivots The primary catalyst for the recent 118% surge over the past six months is the installation of new leadership under CEO Matthew Bromberg. This change has restored crucial investor confidence by signaling a shift from a period of strategic missteps and costly acquisitions toward a disciplined, operator-focused culture. The new board and management team are perceived as more aligned with both developer needs and shareholder value creation, marking a fundamental cultural and operational turnaround. Unity’s core strength remains its unparalleled scale and entrenchment in the gaming industry. Its software platform is used to create and operate experiences that collectively reach an estimated four billion devices monthly. However, the historical bull thesis has been tempered by the company's prior failure to effectively monetize this massive footprint, particularly in high-margin areas like in-game advertising, where competitors such as AppLovin have excelled. The current thesis posits that Unity is now at a critical inflection point, navigating two parallel realities: The AI Opportunity and Threat: The rise of generative AI presents a dual-edged sword. On one hand, large language models (LLMs) and AI tools could theoretically disintermediate aspects of game development by auto-generating code or assets. On the other, Unity bulls argue that AI is primarily efficient at producing short-form or modular content. The creation of complex, polished, and interoperable game worlds still fundamentally requires a robust engine like Unity’s to integrate AI-generated assets, manage physics, handle rendering, and deliver a seamless user experience. Thus, AI may ultimately become a catalyst that increases developer productivity and expands the total addressable market for real-time 3D content, with Unity’s engine as the essential orchestration layer. Strategic Diversification and Partnerships: Unity is strategically expanding beyond its gaming roots into automotive, architecture, film, and especially the emerging realm of extended reality (XR). Key partnerships with industry giants like Tencent, Google, and Meta reinforce its position as a development platform of choice for next-generation AR/VR experiences. Notably, Meta's recent announcement of the Meta Horizon OS and the accompanying Meta Horizon Engine—a modified version of Unity’s engine—is a double-edged sword but is viewed bullishly as a powerful endorsement. It underscores the strategic, irreplaceable value of Unity’s development tools in building the immersive ecosystems of the future, even as it introduces a new layer of competition. Financial and Technical Perspective Financially, Unity remains in a transition phase, with revenue declines in 2024 reflecting the aftermath of its business model reset. The high forward P/E ratio indicates that the market is pricing in a significant recovery in growth and profitability under the new execution plan. The investment is framed as high-risk/high-reward, suitable for investors with a tolerance for volatility and a long-term horizon focused on secular trends in gaming, XR, and AI-driven content creation. From a technical analysis standpoint, the chart indicates two established support levels that could provide stability on any pullbacks: the first at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near $39.47, and a stronger, secondary support zone at the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $34.86. The immediate bullish take-profit target is set at $52, which would represent a meaningful breakout and approach the stock's initial IPO price, serving as a key psychological and technical resistance level. Conclusion: A Bet on Execution and Secular Trends This updated thesis builds upon earlier bullish analyses, such as the one highlighted by AlphaSense in May 2024, which focused on Unity's mobile dominance and industrial diversification. The stock's approximate 95% appreciation since that coverage validates several core tenets of that initial thesis, particularly the impact of new leadership. The perspective from Dragon's Den Investing reinforces this view while placing additional emphasis on the ongoing monetization challenges and the critical importance of strategic partnerships. Ultimately, investing in Unity today is a bet that the company's new operational discipline will successfully unlock value from its massive developer base and platform scale. If execution continues under the new leadership, Unity is positioned to compound gains by riding the long-term growth waves of interactive content creation across gaming, the industrial metaverse, and the immersive internet.
NYSE:ULong
by KalaGhazi
Tesla $TSLATesla (TSLA) has launched new, more affordable "Standard" versions of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles across Europe, a strategic move aimed at countering a sharp decline in sales within the region. This decline is attributed to intensifying competition from rival automakers and the polarizing political commentary of CEO Elon Musk, which has alienated some potential buyers. Pricing and Product Details In key European markets like the Netherlands, Tesla has significantly reduced entry prices. The Model 3 Standard is now listed at 36,990 euros ($43,130), a notable discount compared to the 45,990 euros ($53,620) for the Premium Long Range version. Similarly, the Model Y Standard is priced at 39,990 euros ($46,630), versus 50,990 euros ($59,450) for its Premium Long Range counterpart. These Standard models are "de-contented," meaning they come with reduced specifications to achieve the lower price point. Key omissions and changes include: The use of cloth seats instead of premium materials. The removal of the rear passenger infotainment screen. The absence of a glass roof. Simplified interior lighting. Less powerful electric motors and a decreased driving range per charge. Both the Model 3 and Model Y Standard variants are available for delivery as soon as December. For context, in the United States, the Model 3 Standard starts at $36,990 and the Model Y Standard at $39,990. European Sales Slump and Contributing Factors The introduction of these budget-friendly models comes at a critical time for Tesla in Europe. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), Tesla's vehicle registrations—a proxy for sales—plummeted by 48.5% year-over-year in October 2024, to just 6,964 units. This decline starkly contrasts with the broader market trends. In the same period, total electric vehicle registrations across the European Union, UK, and European Free Trade Association surged by 32.9%, while overall vehicle registrations (across all powertrains) grew by 4.9%. Analysts point to a confluence of factors behind Tesla's regional struggles: Fierce Competition: The European EV market is becoming increasingly crowded with compelling offerings from both established European brands and new Chinese entrants. Economic Headwinds: As CEO Elon Musk has noted, higher interest rates and an uncertain economic outlook are dampening consumer demand for big-ticket items. CEO Polarization: A significant, albeit harder-to-quantify, factor is the backlash from some European consumers against Musk's public embrace of far-right political figures in the region and his contentious relationship with former U.S. President Donald Trump. This has led to a reputational challenge that may be affecting brand consideration. Market Reaction and Technical Outlook Tesla's stock (TSLA) showed little immediate movement on the news of the Standard model launch. However, shares are up approximately 6% for the week, largely buoyed by a recovery in the broader technology sector. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has identified two key support zones: the first at the 0.236 Fibonacci level (around $406) and a secondary, stronger support at the 0.382 Fibonacci level (around $354.94). On the upside, two primary take-profit targets have been established at $500 and $520 per share. A Potential Catalyst: Regulatory Progress on Full Self-Driving In a potentially positive development, the Netherlands' RDW vehicle authority has established a formal schedule for Tesla to demonstrate its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in February 2025. The purpose is to assess whether it meets European regulatory requirements. It is crucial to note that FSD has not yet been approved for use in Europe. Securing approval from even a single European national regulator would represent a monumental step forward for Tesla. It could serve as a powerful differentiator in the market and a significant catalyst to help reverse the company's sales decline on the continent. Conclusion The launch of the Standard Range Model 3 and Model Y is Tesla's direct countermeasure to reignite demand in a critical but challenging European market. While the lower price point may attract more budget-conscious buyers, it remains uncertain whether this move alone can overcome the headwinds of competition, economic conditions, and brand perception. The upcoming FSD demonstration to Dutch regulators in February presents a separate, high-stakes opportunity that could substantially alter Tesla's trajectory in the region in the medium to long term.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by KalaGhazi
AMD Weekly Put Setup – Bearish Momentum with Katy AI InsightInstrument: AMD Direction: Buy Puts (Short) Strike: $210.00 Entry Price: $2.96 Profit Target 1: $4.41 Profit Target 2: $5.88 Stop Loss: $2.21 Expiry: 7-day horizon (2025-12-12) Position Size: 2% of portfolio Confidence: 65% Risk Level: Moderate-High due to weekly expiration and China policy uncertainty Analysis Summary: Katy AI predicts a sustained bearish move from $217.90 to $214.31 by Friday. Weekly momentum is bearish (-2.07%), price below VWAP, resistance at $220, support at $215. Political catalysts: US-China AI chip restrictions increase downside risk. Options Flow neutral (PCR 0.98) but unusual activity at $180 puts signals institutional hedging. Gamma risk moderate; Friday expiration requires careful monitoring. Edge & Strategy: Trade leverages bearish AI prediction and geopolitical catalysts. Conservative delta selection (-0.287) balances probability and premium cost. Recommended to exit at Target 1 for a 50% gain due to short weekly horizon.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by quantsignals
NVDA Swing Trade – Bearish Reversal SetupInstrument: NVDA Direction: Buy Puts (Short) Strike: $165.00 Entry Price: $1.08 Profit Target 1: $1.85 Profit Target 2: $2.50 Stop Loss: $0.65 Expiry: 14-day horizon Position Size: 3% of portfolio (medium conviction) Confidence: 65% Risk Level: Moderate – counter-trend trade against broad market strength Analysis Summary: Katy AI predicts a bearish move toward $165-$170 based on technical weakness. BEARISH_ENGULFING candlestick pattern confirmed; VWAP and momentum indicators suggest selling pressure. High put/call ratio (3.60) shows strong institutional hedging. Moderate risk due to broad market bullishness; monitor SPY/QQQ correlations. This trade is a contrarian play, designed to capture downside in NVDA despite overall market strength.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by quantsignals
GOLD Best Buy and Sell area ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) At the beginning *Inverse Head & Shoulders* pattern, alongside an **ABC corrective wave** upwards, with clear Fibonacci retracements and volume profile zones. Let’s break down the analysis into six key points: --- # ✅ **1) Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern** * We have a clear **Left Shoulder**, **Head**, and **Right Shoulder** formation. * The **neckline has been broken**, signalling a strong bullish reversal. * Typically, the target is measured from the head to the neckline, which aligns roughly with **Target 1 at 4217** on the chart. --- # ✅ **2) Elliott Wave Analysis** The chart outlines an **A → B → C upward corrective wave**: ### Wave A An initial impulsive move upward, indicating a trend change. ### Wave B A retracement to the 0.618 – 0.705 Fibonacci levels, which is very typical for gold. ### Wave C Expected to reach the labelled targets: * **C ≈ A** at about 4217 * **1.272 – 1.618 of A** around 4236 to 4248 This alignment supports the target levels shown. --- # ✅ **3) SMC Zones (Smart Money Concepts) ** We can see three key elements: ### **🔵 Demand Zone** Around **4202 – 4195** The price has bounced strongly from this area, indicating: * Liquidity absorption * Entry of large buyers * This zone acts as a strong **order block (OB)** ### **🔴 Liquidity Pools Above** At the target levels (4217, 4236, 4248), we see likely stop hunts. The price tends to gravitate there to trigger stops and fill orders. --- # ✅ **4) Volume Profile (VPVR) Analysis** The chart shows: ### ✔ Point of Control (POC) around: **4208 – 4210** Currently, the price is trading above the POC, suggesting that: 🔹 Buyers are in control 🔹 Any dips to this zone are likely just retests rather than trend reversals --- # ✅ **5) Expected Scenario** ## 🔵 Main Scenario (Bullish) As long as the price stays above **4202 – 4208**, gold is expected to target: ### 🎯 **TARGET 1 → 4217** (The first liquidity level) ### 🎯 **TARGET 2 → 4236** (Approx. 100% extension of wave C) ### 🎯 **TARGET 3 → 4248** (The final target of the C wave) --- # ✅ **6) Alternative Scenario (Bearish Failure) ** Only if the price breaks: ❌ **Below 4195** ❌ And closes below it on the 15-minute chart In that case, we might see a decline towards: **4164 – 4151** (the 1.618 and 2.00 Fibonacci extensions downward) --- # 📌 **Conclusion** Overall, the analysis suggests: ### ✔ Short-term trend: **Bullish** ### ✔ Buy zone: **4195 – 4205** ### ✔ Stop loss: **Below 4192** ### ✔ Targets: 4217, 4236, 4248 The price action, wave structure, and volume profile all support this bullish scenario. FX:XAUUSD ---
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MRokaM
QS V3 Weekly Call Opportunity – MSFT Bullish TrendMSFT Weekly Signal | 2025-12-05 MSFT Weekly Call Option Direction: Buy Calls (Long / Bullish) Strike: $482.50 Entry Price: $5.62 – $5.70 Profit Target 1: $8.90 (≈60% gain) Profit Target 2: $11.20 (≈100% gain) Stop Loss: $3.90 (≈30% loss) Expiry: Dec 12, 2025 (7 days) Position Size: 2% of portfolio Confidence: 58% Rationale: Katy AI predicts upward trajectory to ~$497 by Friday; MACD bullish divergence suggests potential multi-day reversal. Risk Notes: High – Friday expiration with gamma effects; low VIX may reduce premium capture. Monitor actively.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by quantsignals
APLD Swing Setup: Bullish Breakout with High MomentumInstrument: APLD Trade Type: BUY CALLS (Bullish) Confidence: 65% (Medium Conviction) Horizon: 14 days (to 2025-12-19) Strike Focus: $33.00 (Delta: 0.468) Entry Price: $2.11 (mid of $2.07–$2.15) Profit Target 1: $3.15 (50% gain) Profit Target 2: $4.20 (100% gain) Stop Loss: $1.35 (40% risk from entry) Position Size: 2% of portfolio Trend / Momentum: Katy AI: Strong bullish momentum with 37% single-day surge Technical Analysis: Current price $31.88 above VWAP $27.58; resistance at $35.94, support at $27.58 Market Context: Broad bullish alignment (SPY & QQQ) Options Flow / Risk Notes: Put/Call Ratio: 1.45 → mild bearish hedging, not directional conviction Risk Level: Moderate – elevated IV (106–112%) increases premium cost Notes: Momentum breakout may consolidate; monitor follow-through and adjust position size Competitive Edge / Timing: Balanced delta strike for time value buffer Technical breakout with multi-timeframe bullish alignment 14-day expiry gives swing thesis time to develop
NASDAQ:APLDLong
by quantsignals
NFLX Swing Alert: High-Conviction Bearish Put OpportunityInstrument: NFLX Trade Type: BUY PUTS (Bearish) Confidence: 65% (Medium Conviction) Horizon: 14 days (to 2025-12-19) Strike Focus: $90.00 (Delta: -0.077) Entry Price: $0.29 (mid of $0.26–$0.32) Profit Target 1: $0.58 (100% gain) Profit Target 2: $0.87 (200% gain) Stop Loss: $0.15 (48% risk from entry) Position Size: 2% of portfolio (moderate conviction, counter-trend risk) Trend / Momentum: Katy AI Signal: Bearish momentum toward $95–$97 support Weekly Momentum: Neutral Swing Range: $97.74 – $104.79 Current Price: $104.27 (trading below VWAP $104.17) Options Flow / Market Context: Put/Call Ratio: 2.74 → strong institutional bearish positioning Recent catalyst: Major investor (Josh Brown) cut 85% of position; regulatory hurdles affecting acquisitions Risk Level: Moderate; counter-trend trade against broad market bullishness Competitive Edge / Notes: Timing: Entry after technical rejection at $109.93 resistance + news catalyst Risk Mitigation: Conservative $90 put selection provides buffer; tight stop limits losses Expiry: 14-day window sufficient for bearish thesis with limited theta decay
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by quantsignals
Quant siganls V3 AMZN Weekly Calls: Katy AI Sees Bullish MoveAMZN Weekly Options Trade Overview Direction: BUY CALLS Strike: $220 Entry Price: $11.00–$11.38 Target 1: $16.70–$16.80 (≈50% gain) Target 2: $19.55 (≈75% gain) Stop Loss: $8.15–$8.40 (≈25% loss) Expiry: 2025-12-12 (Friday) Position Size: 2–2.5% of portfolio Confidence: 58–65% Trend: Bullish / Katy AI predicts steady ascent to $232–$235 by Friday Key Notes: Entry during Friday morning dip aligns with predicted afternoon upward move. Friday expiration increases gamma risk — monitor intraday and consider taking profits at Target 1. Low volume (~0.6x avg) may exaggerate price moves — use limit orders. PCR 1.53 (bearish flow) contradicts bullish call setup; watch institutional selling pressure. Delta ~0.865 provides strong directional alignment with predicted upward momentum. Call Setup (Contrarian Weekly Play) Strike: $230 Entry Price: $3.80–$3.90 Target 1: $5.70 (≈50% gain) Target 2: $7.60 (≈100% gain) Stop Loss: $2.85 (≈25% loss) Position Size: 2% of portfolio Trend: Bullish (despite neutral weekly momentum) Rationale: Katy AI time-series predicts consistent upward trajectory, reinforced by bullish AI sector news and low put/call ratio. Key Notes: Active monitoring needed due to Friday expiry and gamma risk. Conservative delta (0.4–0.6) balances premium cost with directional exposure. 💡 Summary: These are short-term bullish trades on AMZN calls ahead of Friday expiration. Katy AI shows strong predicted upside for both $220 and $230 strikes, but risk management is crucial due to Friday gamma exposure, low volume, and conflicting institutional flow.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by quantsignals
Tesla Breakdown Alert: RSI Overbought + Bearish DivergenceTSLA Weekly Put Signal Summary Direction: BUY PUTS (Short) Confidence: 55% (Low conviction) Strike Focus: $430.00 Expiry: 2025-12-12 (8 days) Entry Range: $1.27–$1.29 (mid: $1.28) Target 1: $2.54 (≈100% gain) Target 2: $3.81 (≈200% gain) Stop Loss: $0.76 (≈40% loss) Position Size: 2% of portfolio (small due to low confidence) Technical & Market Analysis Katy AI Prediction: Downward movement from $453.85 → $435.44 (-4.1% predicted drop) Weekly Momentum: Neutral (+0.07% 1W) RSI: Overbought at 74.6 → suggests pullback possible MACD: Bearish divergence detected → warning for reversal Support / Resistance: Resistance: $460.66 (stop loss level) Support: $435.44 (Katy target) Options & Flow Intel Put/Call Ratio: 1.93 → strong bearish institutional positioning High Volume: Protective $150 put activity noted Max Pain: $452.50 → slightly below current price, aligns with downside bias Risk Notes Moderate risk due to low conviction + neutral composite score Low volume may lead to whipsaw action Tight stop recommended at $460.66 (breach invalidates bearish thesis) 💡 Key Takeaway: This is a speculative bearish put setup based on Katy AI’s consistent short-term downward prediction. Only small position size is advised due to low confidence and moderate risk environment.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by quantsignals
META Weekly QuantSignals Report — Bearish Bias DetectedMETA Weekly Trading Information Ticker: META Date: 2025-12-05 Model: QuantSignals V3 Weekly Direction: BUY PUTS Confidence: 58% (Medium) Expiry: 2025-12-12 (7 days) Strike Focus: $600 Entry Range: $0.15 – $0.17 Profit Target: $0.32 Stop Loss: $0.08 Weekly Momentum: NEUTRAL (-0.10%) Options Flow: Bullish — PCR 0.32 (contrarian risk) Risk Level: 🔴 HIGH (short-dated weekly / gamma risk) ⚠️ Katy vs LLM Conflict LLM: BUY CALLS Katy Prediction: BUY PUTS (-4.07% move) Conflict Level: HIGH ➡️ Katy shows consistent bearish trajectory to $650.98. 🧠 Summary META trades near weekly highs, showing MACD bearish divergence and Katy AI forecasting a steady decline through the week. Despite bullish options flow, sentiment may be overly optimistic. Best used as a small contrarian position due to high uncertainty.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by quantsignals
Intel (INTC) QuantSignals V3 — 12/05 Premium Swing Trade Breakdo📊 INTC Swing Information Ticker: INTC Date: 2025-12-05 Model: QuantSignals V3 Swing Direction: BUY CALLS Confidence: 68% (Medium) Horizon: 14 days — until 2025-12-19 Entry Range: $1.71 – $1.75 Strike Focus: $42.00 Profit Target: $2.57 Stop Loss: $1.20 1W Move: +2.38% 2W Move: +3.86% Volume: 1.2× previous swing Swing Range: $40.14 – $42.83 Market Context: • SPY: Bullish • QQQ: Bullish • Sector: Strong Tech Momentum Risk Level: Moderate ⚠️ Katy vs LLM Conflict LLM: BUY CALLS Katy Prediction: BUY PUTS (-13.11% predicted move) Katy Confidence: 50% Conflict Severity: HIGH 🧠 Quick Summary Intel shows bullish short-term momentum after a 16.24% surge, supported by tech-wide strength and AI-related news catalysts. However, Katy model expects a possible pullback. Position size should remain conservative.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by quantsignals
PALLADIUM Channel Up starting a new 2-month Bullish Leg.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since almost the start of the year. Its latest October 16 Higher High started a pull-back (Bearish Leg) that found support recently on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As with the Bearish Leg before, it also almost reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, so there is valid ground for an upward reversal into the new Bullish Leg technically. With the two previous Bullish Legs rising by +50%, we expect a similar development, targeting $2000, which is also the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (as with the last Bullish Leg). Notice also that the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, similar to September 02, which started the previous Bullish Leg. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XPDUSDLong
by TradingShot
XAUUSD Bulls are done!! Entering bear marketGold rejected heavily from the 4327 supply zone, aligning with the top of the regression channel. Momentum is weakening, and price is struggling to hold above the mid-range levels — signaling a potential deeper correction. Price is sitting at a premium zone with multiple bearish signals lining up. This is an ideal area to look for shorts — sell big, set your stop, and set-and-forget. 🔻 Bearish Confluences Strong rejection from 4327 (major supply). Price reacting from the upper channel and losing bullish strength. Bearish momentum divergence on the latest push up. Daily structure starting to show a potential reversal. 🎯Fibonacci Downside Targets TP1: 4214 (38.2%) – early correction level TP2: 4144 (61.8%) – mid-channel support + fib cluster TP3: 3750 (100%) – full downside extension & major higher-timeframe demand As long as price stays below 4327, bearish continuation remains favored.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VisionaryInsights