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EURUSD - Waiting on the direction!Introduction EURUSD is currently trading in a very technical zone where price is positioned between two significant daily fair value gaps. These opposing imbalances—one bearish and one bullish—are acting as major directional barriers. As long as price remains contained between them, the pair is effectively trapped in a compression phase, awaiting a decisive breakout. The next clear move will likely arise when either the upper or lower FVG gives way, allowing the market to target the liquidity zones that lie beyond these imbalances. Daily Bearish FVG Above current price sits the daily bearish fair value gap, which is acting as a strong resistance area. If EURUSD manages to break through this upper FVG with conviction, it would indicate that buyers have reclaimed control. A clean break above this zone would open the path toward the liquidity area located at the top of the chart. This region is where a large cluster of stop orders and resting buy-side liquidity is likely positioned. A move into this area would be a natural target as price seeks to rebalance inefficiencies and tap into the liquidity pool above previous highs. Daily Bullish FVG Below the current range lies the daily bullish fair value gap, functioning as a major support zone. If EURUSD breaks below this lower FVG, it would signal a shift in momentum back to the downside. Such a move would send price toward the liquidity zone at the bottom, where sell-side liquidity rests beneath prior lows. This would align with typical market behavior in a bearish continuation—first taking out inefficiencies, then reaching into the liquidity pools that form below structural lows. Conclusion EURUSD is currently confined between two major daily FVG levels, creating a tightly compressed structure where the next breakout will dictate direction. Until price decisively breaks either the bearish FVG above or the bullish FVG below, the pair remains in a waiting phase. The eventual breach of one of these imbalances will determine whether EURUSD hunts liquidity at the top or at the bottom, making this a critical moment for directional clarity in the market.
by Youriverse
49
EURCHF – Outlook for the Coming Month1. Monthly View On the monthly timeframe, the overall structure is still bearish, but there’s room for a potential bullish shift. The major liquidity resting at the previous lowest point—formed in November 2024—has already been swept. With that liquidity taken, the market now has the space to push higher if buyers step in. 2. Weekly View Last week’s candle swept liquidity as well, leaving behind a strong rejection wick. That tells us many stop orders below were triggered. This week’s candle is currently trading within the range of last week’s candle, which suggests we could see some sideways movement for a bit. However, since downside liquidity from higher timeframes has already been taken, the market could be setting a liquidity trap before moving upward to hunt the liquidity sitting above. 3. Daily View Yesterday’s candle showed solid buying pressure, confirming a daily low. I’m looking for a pullback into the discount zone before expecting the next move to the upside. The structure is starting to shift in favor of buyers. 4. 4-Hour View The market had been in a bearish trend for quite some time, failing to break previous highs. But today, we finally saw a break of structure to the upside, followed by a new lower low—hinting that a more meaningful move may be developing. Still, I expect EURCHF to pull back once more on the 4H to create a trap before continuing upward, and this pullback shouldn’t break the lowest low. Final Thoughts EURCHF has already cleared major downside liquidity on the higher timeframes, and that shifts the draw toward the upside. With the monthly low from 2024 swept, last week’s liquidity taken, and the daily low confirmed, the pair is setting the stage for a potential bullish continuation once the market finishes its pullback. I’m keeping an eye on how price behaves during this expected retracement. As long as the market doesn’t break the recent lowest low, the structure favors a move higher. A clean reaction from the discount zones on the daily or 4H would strengthen the bullish narrative and open the door for the next upward leg. Overall, EURCHF looks prepared to build momentum—but confirmation will come from how it handles the upcoming pullback. Stay alert to those key zones, because that’s where the next major move will likely begin. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thanks for checking out this analysis! If you enjoyed it, hit that follow button so you don’t miss future updates. And if this breakdown helped you out, drop a like 👍 and share your thoughts in the comments 💬—I always appreciate the feedback!
Long
by PankajHuslte
1
EUR/CHF – Rejection or Breakout?On EUR/CHF, I’m seeing a moderately bullish overall structure, although I recognize a real risk of rejection within the supply zone I’m monitoring on the daily timeframe. Since September, the broader market structure has been clearly bearish: price has been moving inside a well-defined descending channel, and the rebound from the 0.922–0.923 area simply pushed price back toward the upper boundary of that channel, right into my 0.9315–0.9335 supply zone, where the descending trendline also aligns. It’s normal to see profit-taking and liquidity from late buyers coming into play here. As long as I don’t see a clean daily close above 0.9330–0.9340, the downtrend is not technically invalidated for me. The most likely scenario based purely on price action is an initial bearish reaction from the current area, potentially followed by a pullback toward 0.9280–0.9290, which now acts as the first meaningful support (former resistance + top of the inner channel). Only if I see clear rejection in that zone — pin bars or bullish engulfings on H4/H1 — I will consider long entries targeting 0.9360–0.9380 and, in extension, the large supply zone at 0.9410–0.9450. I completely invalidate this long setup below 0.9250, and definitively below 0.9220. Regarding the COT, even though the data is outdated due to the shutdown, the structural picture remains intact: speculators are strongly net long EUR (255k vs 137k) and strongly net short CHF (7.5k vs 35k). This combination — “specs long EUR / short CHF” — continues to support a medium-term bullish bias for this cross. COT doesn’t give me timing, but it does prevent me from trading against the macro flow: deep pullbacks still look more like buying opportunities than the start of a fresh bearish trend. Seasonality shows that both EUR and CHF are typically weak in November, so there isn’t a strong directional edge. What matters more is December, where both currencies tend to strengthen, with CHF historically performing slightly better. This makes seasonality essentially neutral for EUR/CHF, so I use it only as a soft confirmation rather than a directional driver. On the sentiment side, I notice that 69% of retail traders are short EUR/CHF. That’s a strong contrarian signal in favor of further upside: retail is still anchored to the bearish narrative of the past months, so a breakout above 0.933–0.934 could trigger a sharp squeeze, even more so if price extends above 0.937–0.938.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
EURUSD Pullback Into 15min Orderblock Before Targeting LiquidityQuick Summary EURUSD is expected to pull back into the 1.15191 15 Min orderblock, where a bullish reaction may form. If confirmed with a candle close and rejection signal, price may reverse upward toward the 1.15528 liquidity target on the H1 timeframe. Full Analysis Continuing the previous EURUSD outlook on the H4 timeframe, the pair is now approaching a notable orderblock around 1.15191. This zone has structural significance, as it aligns with the recent corrective leg and represents an area where institutional buying may reappear. From a market-structure perspective, the movement toward this level appears corrective, suggesting that sellers may only be gathering liquidity before the next impulsive move higher. The market has a clear pool of targeted liquidity at 1.15528 on the H1 timeframe, making it a logical upside target if bullish orderflow resumes. The preferred entry approach is a reaction from the 1.15191 orderblock, but only if the market provides proper confirmation. This includes a clear 15-minute candle close inside the zone, combined with a strong rejection signal, indicating that buyers are defending the level and absorbing sell-side liquidity. If these confirmations align, the setup offers a clean continuation opportunity toward 1.15528, where liquidity rests above previous highs.
Long
by Mr_Liquidity1
“Gold’s not trending — it’s teasingHello traders, stepping into a fresh week with a clear head sets the tone, so here’s a warm dive into what gold is whispering on the weekly chart. Gold opens the week sitting inside a crucial balance pocket on the W1 map. Momentum is easing, candle bodies are shrinking, and the structure is quietly storing energy for a decisive breakout. This outlook stays loyal to pure Weekly flow — no lower-timeframe noise, just the five-day roadmap drawn by W1 structure itself. Macro & News Context The USD steps into a heavy data line-up this week: Retail Sales, GDP, PCE, and Durable Goods. Any one of these can tilt momentum and sculpt the shape of the weekly candle, so stay alert — the macro winds are active. WEEKLY — Neutral-Bullish but Losing Momentum The weekly chart remains bullish in structure but fragile in strength. Upper wicks = hesitation. Buyers control trend, but conviction is fading. Key Weekly Zones 🟥 Supply Above 4170–4270 → Rejection shelf. Repeated sell absorption. 4330–4460 → Major distribution ceiling. 4570–4700 → Extreme premium, exhaustion zone. 🟦 Demand Below 3980–3880 → Primary weekly support keeping HLs alive. 3830–3700 → Mid-range accumulation. 3600–3450 → Deep structural foundation. ⚪ Weekly Balance Point: 4040–4140 This is the pivot of the week. Above → continuation possible. Below → correction opens. Weekly Scenarios Bullish: Hold above 4040–4140 → targets 4170 → 4270 → 4330. Bearish: Lose 4040 → drop toward 3980 → 3880 → 3830. Weekly view: A data-driven coin toss — USD strength will decide the winner. DAILY — Compression Between Supply & Demand Price is trapped between EMA21 and EMA50, RSI rolling over → indecision. Daily Supply 4235–4330 → The final battlefield. Every test = heavy rejection. 4140–4210 → Active distribution. Sellers defend aggressively. Daily Demand 3980–3880 → Key bullish defense. 3720–3580 → Discount base of the October rally. 3450–3300 → Long-term accumulation. Daily Decision Zone: 4055–4115 Stuck here — no direction until a breakout. Daily Scenarios Bullish: D1 close above 4120 → aim for 4210 → 4330. Bearish: Break & close below 3980 → opens 3880 → 3720. Daily view: Market is coiling — the next D1 close decides the week. H4 — Pressure Building Inside a Tight Box H4 is in a compression pocket 4060–4090. H4 Supply 4135–4165 → Nearest premium selling. 4210–4240 → Heavy distribution cap. 4320–4350 → Deep premium reversal zone. H4 Demand 4020–3990 → Nearest support. 3935–3905 → Continuation demand. 3840–3810 → Major accumulation. H4 Scenarios Bullish: Reclaim 4090 → 4135–4165 → 4210–4240. Bearish: Lose 4020 → 3990 → 3935–3905. H4 view: Expect a violent expansion once it escapes the box. H1 — Liquidity Games Underway Bias: Neutral–Bullish, liquidity-driven. 4140 = weak high, perfect sweep candidate. EMAs flat → compression. RSI mid-50s → room on upside if impulse forms. H1 Supply 4170–4185 → Extreme premium reversal. 4118–4135 → Weak high liquidity. 4088–4100 → Breaker supply. H1 Demand 4025–4040 → Key intraday floor. 3988–4005 → Deep H1/H4 confluence. 4055–4065 → Micro accumulation. H1 Pivot: 4075–4085 Above → bullish continuation. Below → bearish intraday flow. Intraday Scenarios Bullish Liquidity Sweep: Reclaim 4085 → aim for: 4110 → 4135/40 → 4170/85. Bearish Retrace: Reject 4135–4140 → drop toward 4075 → 4053 → 4025–4005. 💡 THE REAL TAKEAWAY — MASTER SUMMARY 📌 Gold is coiled inside multi-timeframe compression. All major biases depend on a breakout from 4055–4115 (D1) and 4060–4090 (H4). Upside Bias: Only valid above 4120 (D1) / 4090 (H4) → targets 4135 → 4170 → 4210+. Downside Bias: Confirmed only below 4020 (H4) / 3980 (D1) → targets 3900 → 3830. Intraday Edge: Expect a sweep of 4140 before any decisive move. Most probable play: ↗️ Sweep 4140 → fade or ↘️ Dip into 4050–4020 → reload upward.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FX_Scrubbs
Barchart says SPY had a nice bounce on the 100MA... uhhhh..So yeah, Barchart posted on FB with a screenshot of a "nice bounce" on the S&P500. Firstly, that wasn't much of a bounce at all with the weekly closing not far from the point of impact on the 100-day moving average. Secondly, this is just retail thinking and not considering the entire context of where the market wants to go in terms of liquidity, efficiency, and fair value. Let's dive a bit deeper into how price REALLY moves. - R2F Trading
AMEX:SPYShort
by Road_2_Funded
EUR/USD – Potential Trade SetupI was expecting a price rebound from the 1.14938 level, and the pair did touch this area. However, the current trend is downward, so the only potential entry would be after breaking the previous highs to take liquidity before resuming the decline. Currently, the available opportunity is around 1.15633, following the high taken at 1.15525. Traders should watch for confirmations before entering and manage risk carefully, as the overall momentum remains bearish.
Short
by Mr_Liquidity1
1