R2F Weekly Analysis - 8th December 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
Ict
A NEW MINDSET A NEW TRADER..What a long and challenging path I’ve chosen to walk. If you scroll through my previous charts, you’ll see where I began—learning retail concepts. I’m not ashamed of those beginnings; they’re part of my story. Most traders start there, and many find success with those strategies. To them, I say congratulations, because that’s perfectly fine.
But for me, I’ve come to see the market differently—through a lens of precision and a deeper understanding. I’m building my craft on what I believe is the real system. Does that mean I’m extremely successful? Not yet. Because the truth is, success in trading isn’t about finding an unique f**ing strategy*. You know why? All of them work!
What matters most—the thing of greatest value—isn’t found in any indicator or concept. The real journey lies in mastering the final boss of this game we call life: myself.
Yes, I already know how to trade. I know how to spot opportunities and make money. But here’s where the dragon emerges—the days I lose, I don’t stop. I push too far, and it costs me everything. I’ve blown accounts not because I don’t know the market but because I’m still wrestling with control.
It sounds simple: “Just stop when you’re losing.” But for me, that’s the fight. That’s the battle I’m determined to win.
I’ll keep this short, as the attached picture speaks for itself. It highlights what’s happening in the market right now. The NQ is at all-time highs—a move that’s completely manipulated. By who? That’s the question.
$COIN - Update: Buy + TPHello Friends,
For those of you looking to capitalize on NASDAQ:COIN you may want to add to your position, or start accumulating for the first time.
My original post:
UPDATED IDEA:
NASDAQ:COIN moving nice with CRYPTOCAP:BTC in this 2024-2025 Bull Run!
Remember, NASDAQ:COIN basically mimics CRYPTOCAP:BTC so we want to trade them in a similar fashion.
As you can see NASDAQ:COIN is still trading below the $368.90 High & the ATH of $429.54.
I am expecting those levels to be traded to as CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues higher.
The chart showing "Swing Protection TP 1" based on our current swing we left ($283-$149) is giving us a projection of $419.61.
That being said, if you wish to add to your NASDAQ:COIN holdings at ~$318 (or lower), you have upside available to take profits.
Please note: $429.54 ATH is a good objective.
Will NASDAQ:COIN go higher with this bull run? IT all depends on when CRYPTOCAP:BTC tops out - I will update you then or follow along with my CRYPTOCAP:BTC exit strategy...
Check out this link for my BTC Exit Strategy :
Silver Bullet Strategy EURUSD AUDUSD | 03/12/2024Trading the Silver Bullet strategy was tough yesterday. While many may only discuss the wins associated with their trading strategies, we encountered some losses yesterday. We entered two trades on two major currency pairs (EURUSD, AUDUSD) and aim to walk you through what happened during our trading session using the Silver Bullet strategy.
At 10:00 EST, we began scouting for potential trading setups, as this marks the beginning of the Silver Bullet window, which concludes at 11:00 EST. By 10:20 EST, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed on the EURUSD currency pair, presenting us with a sell bias and directing our attention to potential selling opportunities in EURUSD for the current trading session. Upon reviewing AUDUSD, we observed that an FVG had also formed at 10:20 EST, further indicating a sell bias for the currency pair.
Once we establish a bias, we typically wait for a retracement into the formed FVG and only execute the trade after the candle that enters the FVG has closed. This step is crucial on our checklist because our backtesting revealed scenarios where the candle entering the FVG could proceed to hit the stop loss. This check helps us avoid entering trades under such conditions. Meanwhile, those who use limit orders may find themselves at a disadvantage in these situations. After a 20-minute wait following the formation of the FVG, we identified a trade on EURUSD that satisfied all the criteria on our checklist, and without hesitation, we proceeded to execute the trade.
In this trade, since the high of candle number 1 from the entry price is approximately 7 pips, which does not satisfy the minimum stop loss requirement, we adjust it to a 10 pips stop loss, our minimum threshold. This rule ensures the trade has sufficient room to fluctuate. Immediately after executing the EURUSD trade, we identified another opportunity with AUDUSD that met all the criteria on our checklist. As it fulfilled the necessary requirements, we proceeded without hesitation to execute the trade.
Please be aware that we risk 1% of our trading account on each trade. This level of risk is acceptable for us, as it's an amount we're comfortable with potentially losing, thus preventing emotional attachment to the trades. Ten minutes after initiating a sell position on EURUSD, our trade reached the stop loss, resulting in a 1% loss for the day. Consequently, we are left with our sell position on AUDUSD.
After incurring a loss on EURUSD, we examined the AUDUSD position and found that this trade was also facing a drawdown. Did we experience any emotions upon realizing we might lose 2% that day? No, because we had already accepted the risk and were prepared for any outcome, whether it was a win or a loss. We were aware that the strategy's win rate was around 48%, indicating that losses are a part of the process. However, with a positive risk-to-reward ratio, our wins are expected to outweigh the losses.
While awaiting the outcome of the AUDUSD trade, we noticed a setup on USDCAD where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed. However, upon closer inspection, we realized it materialized exactly at 11:00 EST. This timing meant we couldn't engage in the trade, as our checklist mandates that trades must be executed before 11:00 EST, thus invalidating this setup. It's important to note our discipline here; despite the temptation, we didn't enter another trade out of revenge. Instead, we let it pass because it failed to meet certain criteria on our checklist. Discipline is a crucial quality of a successful trader and should never be underestimated.
Upon reviewing the AUDUSD trade once more, we observed that it was no longer in a drawdown; instead, the trade had returned to our entry price. Consequently, there was no action required other than to allow the trade to proceed as it will
After being in the trade for an hour and 10 minutes, the AUDUSD position hit the stop loss, putting us down 2% for the day. Indeed, we took two losses and it's likely we'll face more, as that is the nature of trading. It's normal to encounter multiple losses throughout your trading career, and it's crucial not to let them discourage you. Ensure that any strategy you use has been thoroughly backtested and has the data to support its long-term profitability. Also, make certain that your wins consistently exceed your losses, so that during a losing streak, just a few wins can compensate for the losses.
GBPUSD towards 1.28!The GBP/USD pair shows signs of recovery toward the 1.2700 level during European trading, supported by a moderate weakening of the US Dollar due to improved market sentiment and profit-taking ahead of the release of the US JOLTS data. Fundamentally, the pair is consolidating losses after a decline of more than 0.5% recorded on Monday, limiting the damage thanks to the drop in the EUR/GBP pair, indicating capital flows from the Eurozone to the United Kingdom. Investors are closely monitoring the US JOLTS Job Openings data: a figure equal to or above 8 million could strengthen the Dollar, generating additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. Moreover, attention is focused on the speeches by Federal Reserve members, with recent statements highlighting uncertainties about a potential rate cut in December. The current probability of a 25 basis points rate cut stands at 72%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, but more cautious signals from officials could keep the Dollar in a strong position. Therefore, the direction of the pair remains tied to the evolution of macroeconomic data and monetary policy, with a consolidation dynamic reflecting the balance between technical and fundamental factors.
EUR/USD Under Pressure!The EUR/USD exchange rate has recently declined, dropping below the 1.0500 support level. This movement was driven by renewed demand for the US dollar and political concerns in France, where fears of a potential government collapse could hinder efforts to reduce the country's budget deficit.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 4.75%-5.00%, aiming to bring inflation closer to its 2% target. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone, indicating that there is no urgent need for further cuts in the short term. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged after its last cut in October, which brought the deposit rate to 3.25%. Despite this, inflation concerns persist, with wage growth in the Eurozone accelerating to 5.42% in the third quarter.
President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies add further uncertainty to the market. His recent demand for BRICS nations to refrain from developing or supporting new alternative currencies to the US dollar—under threat of 100% tariffs—has contributed to the dollar's strength.
This stance could fuel inflation in the United States, potentially prompting the Fed to adopt a more aggressive approach, resulting in further strengthening of the dollar and additional pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
XAUUSD | 15M | TECHNICAL CHARTI have prepared a OANDA:XAUUSD analysis for all of you. I have marked my target and stop-loss levels on the chart. Thanks to everyone who likes and supports my work. I work hard for you here and I will never give up on you.
We will continue to win together. All I ask is that you show your support with a like.
EURJPY | 30M | TECHNICAL CHART |I have prepared a FX:EURJPY analysis for all of you. I have marked my target and stop-loss levels on the chart. Thanks to everyone who likes and supports my work. I work hard for you here and I will never give up on you.
We will continue to win together. All I ask is that you show your support with a like.
EURUSD Bullish ? Monthly FVG Reversal Setup to the UpsideBreaking down the EUR/USD setup:
Sell-Side Liquidity Raided:
Price has effectively taken out the sell-side liquidity (SSL) levels at 1.060 and 1.04482, creating the conditions for a reversal.
Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Price has tapped into the monthly FVG and, more importantly, closed above it, signaling a possible bullish reversal.
Higher Timeframe Bias:
The monthly FVG holds strong as a bullish PD array. With price rejecting this range, there’s potential for a move toward the weekly buy-side liquidity (BSL) at 1.09387.
Obstacles to Watch:
Price is approaching two high-probability bearish FVGs on the weekly timeframe. These zones could cause re tracements back into the higher timeframe monthly FVG range.
Monitor these areas closely for signs of price respecting or disregarding these bearish zones.
Projection:
If price continues to disrespect the bearish FVGs and maintains bullish displacement, a continuation toward 1.09387 is likely.
Keep in mind retracements into the FVG range as healthy pullbacks during the move higher.
Conclusion:
This setup highlights a high-probability reversal scenario based on ICT concepts. However, as always, patience and confirmation are key—watch how price reacts to the bearish FVGs along the way.
Disclaimer: Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and trade responsibly.
Institutional Demand: CHF/JPY longsHey,
The main pair on watch for me for the upcoming 48 hours is CHF/JPY.
Price is within daily demand and soon reaching weekly value as well.
I've adjusted the daily zone according to the HTF's.
When this zone is reached, I'll wait for entry confirmation on the LTF's.
Same plan as always.
Make sure to watch my videos to learn more.
Oh and boost this post :)
Kind regards,
Max
Healthcare Sector (XLV) Long-Term BuyI believe healthcare will be the next rotation coming out of this tech bull run. Using the Trade Jeanie (Jeanius Screener/Indicator), I was able to see the current technical buy signals happening on AMEX:XLV :
Took out an untested low
Price touching 21EMA while the 9EMA > 21EMA
Retested a level that was broken to create a break of structure (BOS & Retest)
The Jeanius Indicator shows green 'Combo' labels every time this same combination of signals happened
Bitcoin Week 48When looking at BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P and BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P you can clearly see that BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P closed above the previous week high while BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P didn't what indicate us as a bearish SMT.
BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P reached to a 1D gap from previous Q1 week which will be a resistance area.
This is why I would be bearish to BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P this week.
I would like to target the previous gaps marked in the chart above
ES1 Week 48Seems like this week CME_MINI:ES1! closed above the high of the previous Tertiary Quarter while CME_MINI:NQ1! didn't which indicate as bear SMT.
What supports this idea is the fact that CME_MINI:NQ1! is between two daily gaps of previous weeks in the same month Q1.
This make me believe that we are looking to retrace to previous gaps and I'm bearish this week.
Bitcoin: The Crypto Rally Isn’t Over—Are You Ready for the Next Bitcoin: The Crypto Rally Isn’t Over—Are You Ready for the Next Leg?
Bitcoin has been leading the charge in the recent crypto rally, showing strength and resilience across key levels. While some traders might expect a pause or a pullback, I don’t think the bullish momentum is done just yet.
I believe there’s at least one more leg up in this rally, and I’m preparing to capitalize on the move. Here’s the breakdown:
Momentum in the Crypto Market
Bitcoin has been riding a wave of optimism, driven by institutional interest, improving sentiment, and favorable macro conditions. The broader crypto space seems to be in a risk-on mode, supporting further upside potential.
Bullish Continuation Likely
The recent rally has broken key resistance levels, signaling strength in the trend. While short-term consolidation or small pullbacks may occur, the overall trajectory remains upward.
Trade Idea
Looking for Longs: My bias remains bullish, and I’m ready for the next move higher. I’m focusing on dips into support zones or breakouts above resistance for potential entry points.
Risk Awareness: While the rally looks strong, volatility in crypto markets can strike unexpectedly. Managing risk remains crucial.
US100: Another Push Higher or a Long-Overdue Pullback?US100: Another Push Higher or a Long-Overdue Pullback?
The US100 has recently experienced a strong rally, igniting speculation among traders that a significant retracement is just around the corner. But is it really time for a pullback? Not necessarily.
While market corrections are inevitable, the current momentum suggests that the uptrend is far from exhausted—at least until the market says otherwise. Here’s my take:
Trend Dynamics
The rally across major indices has been fueled by strong sentiment, robust tech sector performance, and resilient economic data. The all-time high now seems within reach, and the market might aim for that psychological level before considering a substantial pullback.
Cautious Long Bias
I’m keeping a long bias on the US100, as the upward trajectory still looks intact. However, I acknowledge that any signs of weakness or resistance at key levels could quickly shift the narrative.
Flexibility is Key
While I lean bullish, I remain open to short opportunities if the market shows clear signs of reversal. The key is to stay adaptable and let the price action guide the way.
Fundamental Backdrop
The bullish case is supported by resilient corporate earnings, cooling inflation, and optimism surrounding the tech-driven economy. However, potential headwinds, like interest rate concerns or geopolitical risks, could trigger sudden volatility.
Trade Idea
Watching for Longs: I currently don’t have a specific entry point in mind but am closely monitoring price action for buy opportunities.
Open to Shorts: If the market begins to show signs of exhaustion at key resistance levels, I won’t hesitate to explore short setups. Flexibility is crucial in these conditions.
Perspective, Not a Trade Recommendation
This analysis provides a perspective on the US100’s current rally and potential setups—it is not a trade recommendation. Conduct your own analysis and always practice sound risk management.
BTCUSD | 15M | SCALPING TIME I've put together a Bitcoin analysis for all of you. I've marked my target and stop-loss levels right on the chart. Thanks to everyone who's been like and support my work. I'm here working hard for you, and I'm never gonna give up on you.
We're gonna keep making gains together. All I ask is that you show your support with a like.
Gold: Slow Recovery or a Setup for the Next Big Move?Gold has recently completed a three-leg correction to the downside, and we’re now seeing early signs of a move back up. However, the current upward push seems to be struggling with low volume and volatility, making the path higher uncertain.
So, where does that leave us? Let’s break it down:
Trend Context
The broader trend for Gold still appears bullish, with strong long-term fundamentals supporting the precious metal. However, the recent correction highlights that buyers might need more momentum to regain control fully.
Volume & Volatility Concerns
Gold’s upward movements often rely on strong participation and momentum. The current lack of volume could indicate hesitation among market participants. Until we see a clear increase in trading activity, caution is warranted.
Trade Idea
Long Bias: While my overall bias remains bullish, I’d recommend patience. Let Gold show signs of strength with increased volume and a break above key resistance levels before entering long positions.
Watch for Buy Opportunities: Dips into strong support zones could present attractive entry points for those aligning with the long-term uptrend.
Perspective, Not a Trade Recommendation
This analysis is meant to provide a perspective on Gold’s price action and potential setups—it is not a trade recommendation. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk management strategies.
GBP/USD: Relief Rally or Just a Pause Before the Next Drop?GBP/USD: Relief Rally or Just a Pause Before the Next Drop?
GBP/USD has been locked in a prolonged downtrend, but recent price action shows signs of a relief rally to the upside. Could this mean the bears are finally running out of steam?
Not so fast. While the bounce might be tempting for bulls, it’s essential to consider the bigger picture. The downside momentum isn’t entirely out of the equation just yet. Here’s why:
Trend Analysis
The long-term downtrend remains intact. Key resistance levels are looming, and the recent upward move might simply be a retracement within the broader bearish structure.
Market Cycles
Markets often move in cycles, and GBP/USD appears to still be in the middle of a downside cycle. Relief rallies like this are common before the next leg lower, catching overly eager buyers off guard.
Fundamental Backdrop
The GBP/USD pair is influenced by various factors, including UK economic data, US interest rate dynamics, and market sentiment. As of now, the fundamentals still favor the dollar, adding pressure to the pound.
Trade Idea
Short-Term Bulls: If you’re considering the upside, proceed with caution and manage your risk. Look for clear confirmation of strength above key resistance levels before committing to a bullish bias.
Long-Term Bears: Stay patient. This relief rally could offer an excellent opportunity to short the pair at higher levels, aligning with the overall downtrend.