Nasdaq Extremely OversoldThis is a side-by-side comparison of the Nasdaq daily chart from March 2009 with today (May 2022). The charts are looking very similar to one another. The heatmap on the daily chart has not been this cold since the bottom of the Great Recession. The daily plot is nearing a record low. While this daily chart cannot make long term predictions, it suggests that we are at a bottom right now and the Nasdaq is about to move back up for the coming weeks to months.
Nasdaq Composite Index CFD
Nasdaq 100 - A potential bull trap in the futures market?The Nasdaq 100 index showed some relief yesterday and made a higher high since its low on 19th May 2022. However, smaller time frames suggest that the willingness of market participants to buy at rising prices diminishes. Therefore, this leaves us to speculate whether the Nasdaq 100 index is getting positioned for another leg down. At the same time, the daily volume continues to increase which is bearish; also because of that, we still remain bearish on the index and expect it to make new lows. Because of that, we would like to set a new short-term price target for NQ1! at 12 000 USD and a medium-term price target at 11 900 USD (due to become short-term after 12 000 USD is taken out).
Our price targets for QQQ remain at 285 USD and 280 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows a bull trap we pointed out just a few hours before the market sold off more than 5%. We notice similarities in the prior and the current developments, which prompted us to our speculation about another “bull trap”.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSIs bearish structure remains intact. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Meanwhile, ADX increases. Overall, the daily time frame remains bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Simple moving averages are bearish. Additionally, we pay close attention to the area below the lower bound of the channel.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
The picture above shows the intact sloping resistance.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq - Channel has been broken, a possible downfall to follow!Yesterday, we stated that the rally was due to end and the bearish trend to resume. Then, a few hours later, the Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 5%. In the aftermarket, the selling continued; and in the early hours of futures trading, Nasdaq futures sold off as well. Then, the index (continuous futures - NQ1!) erased some of its losses and turned positive. At the moment, NQ1! trades around 11 920 USD. We expect a little bit of relief ahead of the U.S. market opening; however, our stance remains bearish, and we expect new lows in the Nasdaq 100 index. Therefore, we would like to set a new short-term price target for QQQ at 285 USD and the medium-term price target at 280 USD (it will become the short-term price target after hitting 285 USD).
We think what highlights yesterday's selloff is that no significant headlines were made in the news, and despite that, the stock market fell by an astounding amount. Market participants can observe that anxiety and fear are extremely high, which leads to strong price actions to the upside. However, these bounces tend to last shortly and are quickly followed by massive selloffs. These are particular signs of the bear market.
In addition to that, we would like to note the downward moving channel has been broken yesterday - which we expect to culminate in the acceleration of the selling pressure.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows NQ1! (Nasdaq continuous futures). It can be observed that buyers did not manage to push the price through the sloping resistance; a breakdown in the price of the index followed.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish again. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. A move up by the ADX suggests that the bearish trend has resumed. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq100 MAKE it or BREAK it After seven weeks of downward movement in the Nasdaq100 losing more than 22% it closed this week at 11835 points, it is now near to test the 200EMA at 11362 points (red line) for the first time since 2020 pandemic sell-off and that’s the last major support on the medium term and historically the 200EMA is the strongest support in the uptrend, so we have two scenarios now first one is to rebound from here like what happened in 2018 and 2020 with aggressive buyers and huge volumes signaling a clear control for the buyers, in this case, investors are advised to wait till the first confirmation and reenter the market and accumulate long positions and to close all short positions.
The second scenario is to penetrate this level to the downside to break the 200EMA for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008 and accordingly that will break the uptrend in the medium term and enter a downtrend market controlled by Bears, in this case, investors are advised to close all the long positions and keep as much cash as they can using maximum 30% of the cash to open short positions till the confirmation of the market direction or any appearance of reversal signs.
NASDAQ:NDX TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:SQQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:PSQ
The curious case of a massive Bull Rally in all marketsThis is not a crypto analysis , I have more holdings in stock market than in crypto so that's what I care about.
But the curious case here is the situation in BTC long contracts.
It's at a historical high , so high that the indicators at the bottom have no place to go anymore and they are all signaling a downturn in these long contracts.
SO why does this matter?
Because since July 2021 the BTC market is almost 1:1 correlated with stock market.
That is because with mining power leaving China the crypto domination now are in the hands of the USA or Wall Street to a certain degree. The biggest investors of crypto are big funds and VCs in the US and they are dictating the price.
And since then, this particular BTC Long contract chart is in a negative correlation with the stock market.
As we have come to an end in this massive rise in long contracts what will happen next is a big upwards move in BTC, SPX and NDX.
At this point no rhetoric about recession, interest rates, war, uncertainty etc. won't matter.
This is like seasons, spring will come no matter what.
And here it is!
NASDAQ Prediction (No Guess) Based on mathematical modelHello traders!
I was analyzing NAS100 by using different mathematical formulas and models recently, then I just tried my favorite mathematical cubic curve model & the prediction is shocking.
NAS100 weekly chart is predicting the price in October aprox. 9000 !!!!!!!!!!!!
Isn't it Shocking ;)
P.S. This is just an analysis based on my personal research & not a financial advise !!!!!
Comparing the Nasdaq, S&P, and the M2 money supplyThe current drawdown in the stock market may not appear like much when looking at a monthly chart, however when comparing to the money supply it tells a different story. From the peak of the dot com bubble the entire market is still down significantly when adjusted for all the money printing the fed has done.
Nasdaq Composite Index divided by M1 and M2 money supply The current drawdown in the Nasdaq may not appear like much when looking at a monthly chart for example, however when comparing to the money supply it tells a different story. Compared to M2 we are at the same level seen in early 2020, however compared to M1 we are at levels not seen since 1991.
Nasdaq 100 - A correction is moving towards its endWe continue to be bearish on QQQ even despite the current bounce in price (correction). Indeed, we think that the current pricing is attractive for (re)entry of short position. Since all our price targets were hit before the rally; therefore, we would like to set a new short-term price target for QQQ at 300 USD. We would also want to set a medium-term price target of 290 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows short-term support levels as well as relief from the selling pressure.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq 100 - Dip buyers about to get obliterated Yesterday, Nasdaq 100 pushed above the immediate resistance we hinted at in our latest post on QQQ. We think the rally is due to end and the bearish trend to resume. Therefore, we would like to set a new short-term price target for NQ1! at 12 250 USD. We would also like to set a medium-term price target at 12 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows yesterday's bullish breakout on the hourly chart. In our opinion, this is potentionally a perfect bull trap. Although, we will pay close attention to the price action of NQ1!; if it manages to break above the immediate resistance then it is likely that NQ1! might experience the last push higher before faltering.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI points to the upside, which is bullish; however, we expect it to break down and turn bearish soon (the same applies to other mentioned indicators). MACD strives for a bullish crossover. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- remain bearish, while ADX signals a pause in selling pressure. Overall, the daily time frame shows less bearish conditions than a week ago; although, we still maintain a notion that the current bounce in price is just a “downtrend” rally.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the daily chart of QQQ.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and MACD remain bearish. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- signal the presence of a bearish trend. ADX grows which suggests that the bearish trend has not peaked. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ Corrective WaveNasdaq is currently on corrective WAVE 3 on it's way to finish WAVE 4.
Looks like it's making a Zig Zag ABC correction and if it's true, then we could see a rebound from the "BLUE zone" to close several gap there before continue it's journey to WAVE 5.
Last correction area is the "YELLOW line".
Wave 4 invalid if price's touching the "RED line".
2008 is back.*As a Korean, I do not speak English. I used a translator. I get a lot of ideas from English-speaking countries while doing stocks.
Please send us your detailed comments.
*I need the opinions of great Americans
*History repeats itself.
]
Evidence is the chart pattern and * The US economy is similar.
If my prediction is correct.
After a bit of a rebound, the real hellish bear market begins. I think it will go down to the lowest point during the corona period. March 2020
Nasdaq100 inverse Head and Shoulders Chart PatternNasdaq 100 P/E ratio on May 12, 2022 was 20.71, which is below the Median of 26.59 or the Average of 30.04.
In the past 5 years, the Minimum was 15.74 on MAR 23 2020 and Maximum 86.30 on JUN 28 2017.
I have 2 scenarios:
1. Inverse head and shoulders chart pattern with a price target of $16650 by the end of the year.
2. Worst case scenario: bull trap at $13350 an retracement to the pre-pandemic level of $9750. I tend not to believe this scenario because of the too low price per earnings ratio of NDX.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Nasdaq 100 - The relief rally is in a progressWe continue to be bearish on Nasdaq 100 index. Our view is supported by bearish technical and fundamental factors. The prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S. will continue to put pressure on the economy and drag market indices lower. We expect the rally to be short-lived and Nasdaq to resume its downfall soon. Therefore, we would like to set a new price target for NQ1! to 12 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above links our bearish idea on QQQ.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX increases, which signals that the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows that the weekly volume continues to increase, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
IXIC US Composite Nasdaq Corrects 50% from swing of 2020! Over? IXIC US Composite Nasdaq Corrects 50% from swing of 2020! Over?
#IXIC #NASDAQ #US30 #RUT #SPX500
NASDAQ:IXIC corrects 50% from the swing of 2020 bottoms.
Is it over? Economic fundamentals claim it has not bottomed out yet.
Most of the IT stocks gave the way for this correction. #TSLA #AMZN #FB #NFLX and so on to name.
Is it time for investment? Yes, for a long term holder who is not bothered with a small dips of 5-7% further fall, should start investing.
Are you salaried class person with a constant earning coming every month end? Or u have a business with a strong mindset of risk management and risk handling?
Be prepared with your investment plans! Personal Finances and Taxation. Earnings and Expenses. Savings and Return on Investment All are to be aligned in this latest world of increased necessities and demands with scarcity of resources.
As we have always read, this is actually happening in front of us.
Are we prepared?
Inflation and Unemployment will tame our greed and carelessness towards resources.
Investment opportunities? Ample of opportunities, waiting for appropriate investment entry.
Start investing start trading. Tradingview !
#tradingview.
QQQ - Dip buyers are about to catch a falling knifeYesterday, our price targets of 305 USD and 300 USD were reached. After that, the relief rally began, and QQQ erased some of its earlier losses. However, we expect the bounce in the QQQ to be short-lived. Accordingly, we remain bearish on QQQ and expect it to continue lower after the rally ceases; small time frames suggest this thesis as they slowly start to reflect overbought conditions. Therefore, our new short-term price target is 295 USD; the new medium-term price target is 290 USD (due to become a short-term price target once 295 USD is taken out).
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows QQQ on the daily chart in pre-market on 10th May 2022. The downward sloping trendline acts as resistance.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSIs bearish structure remains intact. MACD and Stochastic remain bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows that the weekly volume continues to increase, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin & Nasdaq VS DollarAs stated in my earlier post , Bitcoin is entering the buy zone.
This time, I would like to provide some additional insight on Nasdaq composite index and US Dollar currency index.
Nasdaq, while definitely not looking bullish, is already in a state of preparation for a short term bounce.
How high it might go? I would say at least around 12.5k.
On the other hand, the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) is overheated and its meteoric rise is losing momentum. It looks like it's destined for a correction (at least short term).
How deep? At least between 101 and 102.
Please keep in mind that I'm using the weekly chart, so these moves might take 1-2 weeks to materialize.
In a normal market I would be close to sure about the provided forecast, but since most markets are being affected by external factors lately, I am somewhat cautious - therefore my stance is neutral to cautiously short term bullish.
QQQ - QQQ poised to continue lowerWe maintain a bearish notion on QQQ. Accordingly, our short-term price target of 305 USD stays in place; the same applies to our medium-term price target of 300 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows increasing selling pressure.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. ADX paused a climb and dipped lower. Despite that, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. ADX increases, which indicates that the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Liquidity and NASDAQ?Here is a chart comparing the Fed's balance sheet vs. the NASDAQ price since 2003. It seems like NASDAQ chases the balance sheet most times, but gets scared out during tightening (2018-2019), and now. The FED came to save the day in 2019, but will they now? The reaction here seems to price in what the FED balance sheet would be after tightening.






















