Nasdaq 100 - A potential bull trap in the futures market?

The Nasdaq 100 index showed some relief yesterday and made a higher high since its low on 19th May 2022. However, smaller time frames suggest that the willingness of market participants to buy at rising prices diminishes. Therefore, this leaves us to speculate whether the Nasdaq 100 index is getting positioned for another leg down. At the same time, the daily volume continues to increase which is bearish; also because of that, we still remain bearish on the index and expect it to make new lows. Because of that, we would like to set a new short-term price target for NQ1! at 12 000 USD and a medium-term price target at 11 900 USD (due to become short-term after 12 000 USD is taken out).

Our price targets for QQQ remain at 285 USD and 280 USD.

Illustration 1.01

The picture above shows a bull trap we pointed out just a few hours before the market sold off more than 5%. We notice similarities in the prior and the current developments, which prompted us to our speculation about another “bull trap”.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSIs bearish structure remains intact. MACD and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Meanwhile, ADX increases. Overall, the daily time frame remains bearish.

Illustration 1.02

Simple moving averages are bearish. Additionally, we pay close attention to the area below the lower bound of the channel.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. ADX increases. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.

Illustration 1.03

The picture above shows the intact sloping resistance.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Trade active:

Our prediction about a potential bull trap came true, and the market started to break down.

Trade closed: target reached:

Both targets for NQ1! were reached. After that, towards the end of the day, short-covering and profit-taking ensued, which at some point saw U.S. major indices turn temporarily green for the session.