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AUDUSD H4 | Could the Aussie Be Setting Up for a Reversal?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is reacting off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and could reverse from this level to the take profit. Sell entry is at 0.6550, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss is at 0.6590, which is a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 0.6500, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USDJPY H4 | Potential bearish dropUSD/JPY has rejected the sell entry, which acts as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside. Sell entry is at 147.29, which is a pullback resistance that aligns withthe 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 148.08, which is a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 145.95, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
1
USDCHF H4 |Bearish Continuation Setting UpThe Swissie (USD/CHF) has rejected off the sell entry, which acts as an overlap resistance and could potentially drop from this lvle ot the downside. Sell entry is at 0.8018, which is an overlap resistance. Stop loss is at 0.8103, which is a swing high resistance. Take profit is at 0.7924, which is a multi swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
GBPUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal at Multi-Swing High ResistanceBased on H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry, which is a multi swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, and could reverse from this level to the downside. Sell entry is at 1.3583, which is a multi swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss is at 1.3673, which s a pullback resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit is at 1.3420, which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
EURUSD H4 | Price approaching swing high resistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry, which acts as a swing high resistance and could reverse from this level to the take profit. Sell entry is at 1.1774, which is a swing high resistance. Stop loss is at 1.1828, which is also a swing high resistance. Take profit is at 1.1651, which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Bearish Rejection at Resistance Zone?USD/JPY is reacting off the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 147.11 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Stop loss: 148.06 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance. Take profit: 145.86 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
Falling towards Fibonacci confluence?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is a pullback suport that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci projection and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this levle to our take profit. Entry: 0.7971 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci projection and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.7923 Why we like it: There is a multi-swing low support. Take profit: 0.8026 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Bullish Reversal Setup Forming?USD/CAD is reacting off the support level, which is a swing low support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3730 Why we like it: There is a swing low support. Stop loss: 1.3674 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 1.3792 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Bullish Rise on EUR/USD – Key Support Holding?EUR/USD has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support, and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1653 Why we like it: There is a pullback support. Stop loss: 1.1581 Why we like it: There is a multi-swing low support. Take profit: 1.1774 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Pullback resistance holding – Bearish reversal in play?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is reacting off the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 65.81 1st Support: 62.17 1st Resistance: 68.85 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by ICmarkets
3
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 0.5889 1st Support: 0.5789 1st Resistance: 0.5987 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bearish Reversal Forming off Key Resistance?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 0.6543 1st Support: 0.6383 1st Resistance: 0.6644 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
Market Pullback Towards 50% Fib Support Zone?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is reacting off the pivot, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.3715 1st Support: 1.3568 1st Resistance: 1.3912 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
Bearish continuation in play?The Swissie (USD/CHF) has rejected off the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance and could potentially drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 0.8084 1st Support: 0.7894 1st Resistance: 0.8198 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Price rebounds from 78.6% Fib support – Bullish setup ahead?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 144.92 1st Support: 142.44 1st Resistance: 150.96 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
5
Bearish reversal forming at resistance zone?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the support, which as as an overlap support. Pivot: 1.3616 1st Support: 1.3208 1st Resistance: 1.3791 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bearish Reversal?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 4,862.36 1st Support: 3,853.80 1st Resistance: 5,225.73 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:ETHUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Price drop from overlap resistanceBitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 111,064.05 1st Support: 104,329.52 1st Resistance: 117,395.83 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by ICmarkets
GBPUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# GBPUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - August 2025 Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Intraday and Swing Trading Current Price: 1.35033 USD (as of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) 24H Change: -0.08% Market Sentiment: Bullish Bias with Cautious Optimism --- Executive Summary The GBPUSD pair is currently trading above the critical 1.3500 psychological level, showing resilience after the Bank of England's recent rate cut to 4% in August 2025. The GBP/USD pair gradually crawled back above the 1.3500 barrier on the renewed upside, indicating potential for continued upward momentum despite monetary policy headwinds. Key Technical Levels: Immediate Support: 1.3450 - 1.3485 Key Resistance: 1.3585 - 1.3620 Psychological Level: 1.3500 (currently above) --- Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop Recent Central Bank Actions At its meeting ending on 6 August 2025, the MPC voted by a majority of 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. This dovish move has created mixed signals for GBP, with the median profile in the August MaPS implied a cumulative 50 basis point reduction in Bank Rate by the end of this year. Interest Rate Differential Impact UK Base Rate: 4.00% (recently cut from 4.25%) Fed Funds Rate: 4.25-4.50% (unchanged) Rate Differential: Narrowing in favor of USD --- Multi-Methodology Technical Analysis 1. Candlestick Pattern Analysis Current Formation: Doji reversal patterns observed on 4H timeframe Pattern: Indecision candles near 1.3500 support Implication: Potential for directional breakout Confirmation Required: Volume increase on next significant move 2. Elliott Wave Theory Analysis Wave Structure: Currently in Wave 4 corrective phase Primary Trend: Bullish impulse from 1.2300 lows Current Position: Corrective Wave 4 consolidation Target Wave 5: Projected range 1.3650-1.3750 Invalidation Level: Break below 1.3380 3. Harmonic Pattern Recognition Active Pattern: Bullish Gartley formation completing D Point: Target zone 1.3480-1.3520 Fibonacci Levels: 0.786 retracement at 1.3485 Bullish Reversal Zone: 1.3450-1.3500 Target Extensions: 1.3585 (1.27), 1.3650 (1.618) 4. Wyckoff Market Cycle Analysis Current Phase: Accumulation Phase C (Spring Test) Background: Institutional accumulation near support Volume Profile: Decreasing on declines, increasing on rallies Smart Money: Likely accumulating between 1.3450-1.3520 Next Phase: Markup anticipated above 1.3585 5. W.D. Gann Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: Current Position: 1.35033 sits at 144° (important Gann angle) Support Levels: 1.3472 (135°), 1.3434 (128°) Resistance Levels: 1.3542 (152°), 1.3580 (160°) Time Cycles: September 15-20 represents significant time window Price Squaring: Next major target 1.3689 (169°) Gann Angles from August Low: - 1x1 Angle: 1.3520 (primary support) - 2x1 Angle: 1.3485 (secondary support) - 1x2 Angle: 1.3585 (resistance) 6. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Cloud Status: Price above Kumo on daily chart Tenkan-Sen (9): 1.3515 (bullish above) Kijun-Sen (26): 1.3498 (consolidating) Senkou Span A: 1.3505 (cloud support) Senkou Span B: 1.3480 (strong support) Chikou Span: Above price action (bullish confirmation) Signal: Bullish bias maintained while above cloud --- Technical Indicators Analysis Momentum Indicators RSI (14-period): - 4H: 52.3 (neutral, room to rise) - Daily: 48.7 (approaching oversold relief) - Weekly: 55.2 (bullish momentum intact) MACD Analysis: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GBPUSD turned positive on August 27, 2025, suggesting renewed bullish momentum with the stock continued to rise in of 116 cases over the following month based on historical patterns. Volatility & Price Action Bollinger Bands (20, 2): - Current Position: Middle band test (1.3515) - Band Width: Contracting (low volatility environment) - Squeeze Setup: Potential expansion coming - Direction Bias: Bullish above middle band VWAP Analysis: - Daily VWAP: 1.3520 (key pivotal level) - Weekly VWAP: 1.3485 (major support) - Volume Profile: High volume node at 1.3500-1.3520 Moving Average Configuration Short-term (Intraday): - EMA 21: 1.3518 (immediate resistance) - SMA 50: 1.3505 (support) - WMA 13: 1.3525 (dynamic resistance) Medium-term (Swing): - EMA 50: 1.3490 (key support) - SMA 100: 1.3465 (major support) - EMA 200: 1.3420 (trend support) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H) # Bullish Scenario (Primary - 65% Probability) Entry Strategy: Long Entry 1: 1.3485-1.3500 (Harmonic D-point) Long Entry 2: 1.3520-1.3530 (breakout above VWAP) Stop Loss: 1.3465 (below Wyckoff support) Take Profit 1: 1.3585 (Gann resistance) Take Profit 2: 1.3620 (Harmonic target) Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.8 (Excellent) Timeframe Specific Targets: 5M/15M: Quick scalps 1.3500 → 1.3530 30M/1H: Swing to 1.3585 4H: Extended move to 1.3620 # Bearish Scenario (Secondary - 35% Probability) Entry Strategy: Short Entry: 1.3465 break (Ichimoku cloud breach) Stop Loss: 1.3510 (above VWAP) Take Profit 1: 1.3420 (EMA 200) Take Profit 2: 1.3380 (Elliott Wave invalidation) Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly) # Primary Bullish Wave Count Long-term Setup (1-3 weeks): Entry Zone: 1.3480-1.3520 (current accumulation) Stop Loss: 1.3420 (trend support) Target 1: 1.3650 (Elliott Wave 5 minimum) Target 2: 1.3750 (Wave 5 extension) Target 3: 1.3850 (major resistance confluence) Monthly Outlook: - September: Consolidation 1.3450-1.3650 - October: Breakout attempt above 1.3650 - November: Potential test of 1.3750-1.3850 --- Risk Management & Trade Management Position Sizing Guidelines Intraday: Maximum 2% risk per trade Swing: Maximum 3% risk per position Portfolio Allocation: 5-8% maximum GBPUSD exposure Dynamic Stop Loss Strategy 1. Initial Stop: Below key support levels 2. Breakeven: Move to entry after 50% target hit 3. Trailing Stop: Use ATR(14) x 2 for swing trades 4. Time Stop: Exit if no progress within 48 hours (intraday) Bull Trap / Bear Trap Analysis Potential Bull Trap Warning: - Watch for fake breakout above 1.3585 with weak volume - Confirmation needed: Volume > 20-day average - Invalidation: Immediate reversal below 1.3550 Bear Trap Opportunity: - Break below 1.3480 with quick recovery above 1.3500 - Entry on reclaim of 1.3500 with strong volume - Target: 1.3585-1.3620 --- Weekly Trading Calendar & Key Events Upcoming Market Movers (September 2-6, 2025) High Impact Events: Tuesday: UK PMI Final, GDP Monthly Wednesday: US ADP Employment Thursday: BoE Officials Speeches Friday: US Non-Farm Payrolls Trading Approach: - Reduce position size 2 hours before high-impact news - Consider flat positions during NFP release - Re-enter on confirmed direction post-news --- Alternative Scenarios & Contingency Plans Scenario 1: Dovish BoE Surprise (20% Probability) Trigger: Additional rate cut signals Expected Move: 1.3500 → 1.3350 Strategy: Short on break of 1.3465, target 1.3380-1.3350 Scenario 2: USD Weakness Theme (25% Probability) Trigger: Fed dovish pivot or data weakness Expected Move: 1.3500 → 1.3750 Strategy: Aggressive long on any dip to 1.3480 Scenario 3: Risk-Off Environment (15% Probability) Trigger: Geopolitical tensions or market crash Expected Move: Sharp decline to 1.3200-1.3300 Strategy: Full hedging, await oversold bounce --- Technical Rating Summary Overall Rating: BULLISH BIAS 1-Week Outlook: BUY (Confirmed by MACD turn positive) 1-Month Outlook: BUY (Elliott Wave structure intact) Confidence Level: 7/10 Key Catalysts for Bullish Breakout: 1. Sustained break above 1.3585 with volume 2. US economic data disappointment 3. Risk-on sentiment return 4. Technical pattern completion Bearish Invalidation Levels: Short-term: 1.3465 Medium-term: 1.3420 Long-term: 1.3380 --- Conclusion & Trading Recommendations The GBPUSD pair presents a compelling bullish setup despite recent BoE dovishness. Our technical rating for GBPUSD stock is buy today with multiple technical methodologies aligning for potential upside. The convergence of Harmonic patterns, Elliott Wave projections, and Gann analysis suggests a high-probability move toward 1.3585-1.3650 over the coming weeks. Priority Actions: 1. Immediate: Monitor for entry opportunities in 1.3485-1.3520 zone 2. Short-term: Prepare for breakout above 1.3585 3. Medium-term: Position for Elliott Wave 5 completion at 1.3650-1.3750 Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement proper risk management and consider your risk tolerance before trading.
by sunya
USD/JPY Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# USD/JPY Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - Comprehensive Multi-Dimensional Analysis Asset Class: USD/JPY (US Dollar vs Japanese Yen) Current Price: 147.036 (as of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Analysis Date: August 31, 2025 Market Context: Critical resistance testing phase with intervention risk monitoring Executive Summary The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 147.036, positioned at a technically significant juncture where multiple analytical frameworks suggest heightened volatility and directional uncertainty. The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 146.9530 on August 29, 2025, up 0.22% from the previous session, while the USDJPY showed a −0.89% fall over the past week, the month change is a −1.63% fall, and over the last year it has increased by 1.42%. Our comprehensive multi-dimensional analysis reveals critical resistance levels ahead, with Bank of Japan intervention risks creating a complex risk-reward environment for both intraday and swing trading strategies. Current Market Landscape & Fundamental Context The USD/JPY pair remains in a precarious position, caught between bullish technical momentum and fundamental headwinds. From a technical point of view, USD/JPY remains in a long-term uptrend for 2025, supported by its position above the 50-week SMA. Key resistance levels include 156.97, 161.81, and 170.43, with the latter aligning with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. However, market dynamics have shifted considerably, with the Japanese Yen strengthening 1.52% over the past month, but down by 0.54% over the last 12 months. This creates a complex technical picture where short-term bearish pressure conflicts with longer-term bullish structure. The Bank of Japan's intervention threat looms large over the pair, particularly as the resistance near 148.50 continues to discourage the bulls according to recent Elliott Wave analysis. This resistance level has proven stubborn, creating a critical decision point for the pair's next major directional move. Multi-Timeframe Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Count Structure Long-term Perspective (Monthly/Weekly): Based on recent analysis, the daily chart analysis for USDJPY indicates the beginning of a bearish trend, triggered by the initiation of Navy Blue Wave 1. The impulsive characteristics of this wave suggest continued downside movement. Grand Supercycle: Currently in Wave (III) from 2011 lows Cycle Wave: Potential completion of five-wave structure from 2022 Primary Wave: Currently developing corrective Wave (2) or (4) Intermediate Count: Complex correction in progress Medium-term Elliott Wave Structure (Daily/4H): The current wave count suggests USD/JPY is developing within a corrective framework: Wave A: Completed decline from July 2024 highs (161.95) to August lows (141.67) Wave B: Complex three-wave bounce to current levels Wave C: Potential target zone 139.58-136.00 (year-to-date lows) Alternative Count: Impulse Wave 1: Down from 161.95 to 141.67 Corrective Wave 2: Current bounce (complex flat or triangle) Target Wave 3: Extension toward 135.00-130.00 zone Elliott Wave Targets & Critical Levels Immediate Resistance (Wave B Completion): Primary Resistance: 148.50-149.00 (current battle zone) Secondary Resistance: 151.20-151.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) Major Resistance: 154.50-155.50 (78.6% retracement level) Downside Targets (Wave C Projection): Initial Target: 143.50-144.50 (1:1 wave equality) Primary Target: 140.32-139.58 (previous reaction lows) Extended Target: 136.00-135.00 (1.618 extension) Ultimate Target: 131.00-128.00 (extreme bear scenario) Critical Invalidation Levels: Bull Case Invalidation: 158.924 acts as a key risk management point Bear Case Invalidation: Break below 141.67 (August 2024 low) Harmonic Pattern Analysis & Fibonacci Framework Active Harmonic Formations 1. Potential Bearish Gartley Pattern (Weekly-Monthly Timeframe) X to A Leg: 161.95 to 141.67 (2,028 pips decline) A to B Retracement: Current level at 147.03 (26.4% retracement) Target B Point: 148.50-150.00 (38.2%-50% optimal zone) Projected C Point: 144.00-145.50 (78.6%-88.6% of AB) Completion Zone (D): 155.50-157.80 (78.6%-88.6% XA retracement) 2. Bullish Bat Pattern Alert (4H-Daily) Formation Stage: Monitoring for X-A completion X Point: Current highs around 147.50 Potential A Point: Break below 144.50 would activate pattern Target Completion: 142.50-141.80 zone (88.6% XA retracement) Risk Assessment: High probability if 144.50 breaks 3. Crab Pattern Development (Higher Timeframes) Monitoring Setup: Extension beyond 149.50 could trigger Crab formation Completion Zone: 151.20-154.80 (161.8%-224% XA extension) Strategic Implication: Major reversal zone for long-term shorts Fibonacci Confluence Analysis Critical Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% Retracement: 146.15 (minor support from July-August range) 38.2% Retracement: 149.43 (major resistance confluence) 50% Retracement: 151.81 (psychological and technical resistance) 61.8% Golden Ratio: 154.19 (ultimate resistance barrier) 78.6% Level: 157.21 (major reversal zone) Extension Projections: 127.2% Extension: 144.20 (From recent correction) 161.8% Extension: 141.15 (Major downside target) 200% Extension: 137.58 (Extended bear target) 261.8% Extension: 132.45 (Extreme downside scenario) Wyckoff Theory Market Structure Analysis Current Market Phase Assessment Phase Identification: Distribution Phase (Phase D-E Transition) Wyckoff Characteristics Observed: 1. Accumulation Completed: 2022-2023 range (125.00-140.00) 2. Markup Phase: 2023-2024 rally to 161.95 highs 3. Distribution Phase: Current 2024-2025 range (141.67-161.95) 4. Preliminary Supply (PSY): July 2024 highs at 161.95 5. Buying Climax (BC): Failed retest of 161.95 levels 6. Automatic Reaction (AR): August decline to 141.67 7. Secondary Test (ST): Current bounce to 147.00+ levels 8. Sign of Weakness (SOW): Failure to reclaim 150.00+ levels Current Phase Analysis: Phase D: Testing supply levels (147.00-149.00) Phase E: Pending markdown if distribution confirms Volume Analysis: Declining volume on rallies, expanding on declines Wyckoff Price Targets: Initial Markdown: 139.58-140.32 (previous support cluster) Primary Target: 135.00-136.00 (measured move from distribution) Ultimate Target: 128.00-131.00 (full distribution projection) Volume Confirmation Signals Distribution Confirmation Required: Heavy Volume: On breaks below 145.00 Climactic Volume: Expected at major support breaks Volume Divergence: Lower volume on bounces (bearish) W.D. Gann Theory & Sacred Geometry Analysis Gann Square of 9 Analysis Current Position: 147.036 approaches critical Gann resistance Key Gann Levels: Natural Support: 144.00 (perfect square root level) Current Resistance: 148.00-149.00 (major Gann square cluster) Critical Resistance: 152.00 (next significant square level) Ultimate Resistance: 156.25 (major Gann confluence) Extreme Target: 160.00-161.00 (perfect square resistance) Gann Time Theory & Sacred Cycles Active Time Cycles: 90-Day Cycle: Completed August 15, 2025 (±3 days) 120-Day Cycle: Due September 22, 2025 (major time window) 180-Day Cycle: Approaching October 2025 (significant reversal period) Seasonal Pattern: September-October typically volatile for USD/JPY Gann Angles Analysis: 1x1 Support Angle: Declining at 145.50 (from July highs) 2x1 Support: 143.80 (major support angle) 1x2 Resistance: 149.20 (dynamic resistance line) 4x1 Resistance: 152.80 (long-term resistance angle) Price-Time Balance Assessment Current Imbalance: Time ahead of price (bearish configuration) Equilibrium Zone: 145.50-147.50 (price-time balance point) Acceleration Triggers: Bearish Acceleration: Break below 145.50 with time alignment Bullish Reversal: Time cycle completion with price support Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud Analysis Current Ichimoku Structure Tenkan-sen (9): 146.85 (immediate dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26): 148.15 (medium-term resistance line) Senkou Span A: 147.50 (near-term cloud boundary) Senkou Span B: 151.20 (strong cloud resistance) Chikou Span: Trading below price 26 periods ago (bearish signal) Ichimoku Signals & Market Structure Current Status: Price below cloud (bearish environment) Key Ichimoku Signals: 1. TK Cross: Tenkan below Kijun (bearish momentum confirmed) 2. Cloud Color: Red cloud ahead (bearish bias continues) 3. Price vs Cloud: Below cloud (trend confirmation bearish) 4. Chikou Span: Below historical prices (momentum confirmation bearish) 5. Lagging Span: Clear downward trajectory Ichimoku Support & Resistance: Immediate Resistance: Tenkan-sen at 146.85 Primary Resistance: Kijun-sen at 148.15 Cloud Resistance: 147.50-151.20 (thick cloud barrier) Major Resistance: 152.50+ (cloud top projection) Support Levels: Immediate Support: 145.50-146.00 Cloud Support: Not applicable (price below cloud) Historical Support: 143.50-144.50 (previous reaction levels) Technical Indicators Deep Dive Relative Strength Index (RSI) Multi-Timeframe Analysis Current RSI Status: Daily RSI: 44.2 (Neutral-bearish territory) 4H RSI: 38.5 (Approaching oversold conditions) 1H RSI: 52.1 (Neutral zone with bearish bias) Weekly RSI: 35.8 (Oversold but not extreme) RSI Signals & Divergences: Bearish Divergence: Confirmed on daily and 4H charts RSI Resistance: 50 level acting as dynamic resistance Support Zone: 30 level provides oversold bounce potential Momentum Analysis: RSI structure remains bearish below 50 RSI Trading Levels: Sell Signal Confirmation: RSI break below 40 on daily Oversold Bounce: RSI below 25 on intraday timeframes Trend Change: RSI sustained above 60 required for bullish shift Bollinger Bands (BB) Volatility Framework Current Band Configuration: Upper Band: 149.45 (major resistance) Middle Band (SMA 20): 147.25 (dynamic pivot) Lower Band: 145.05 (support level) Band Position: Middle-lower third (bearish bias) Bollinger Band Analysis: Bandwidth: Contracting after recent expansion Squeeze Potential: Low volatility environment developing Band Walk: Potential for lower band walk if 146.50 breaks Volatility Expansion: Expected within 5-10 trading sessions BB Trading Strategies: Band Bounce: Fade moves to band extremes Squeeze Breakout: Direction determined by 147.25 middle band Band Walk: Sustained moves outside bands indicate trend strength Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Analysis Multi-Session VWAP Framework: Daily VWAP: 146.95 (critical pivot level) Weekly VWAP: 148.30 (resistance anchor) Monthly VWAP: 151.85 (major resistance zone) Quarterly VWAP: 154.20 (significant overhead supply) VWAP Trading Signals: Below VWAP: Bearish institutional sentiment confirmed VWAP Rejection: 146.95 acting as dynamic resistance Volume Profile: Heavy volume cluster at 148.00-149.50 (resistance) Moving Average Convergence Structure Simple Moving Averages: SMA 20: 147.25 (immediate resistance) SMA 50: 149.80 (intermediate resistance) SMA 100: 152.40 (long-term resistance) SMA 200: 155.60 (major trend indicator) Exponential Moving Averages: EMA 12: 146.95 (short-term resistance) EMA 26: 148.45 (MACD baseline) EMA 50: 150.20 (medium-term resistance) EMA 100: 153.10 (long-term resistance) Moving Average Signals: Death Cross Alert: EMA 12 crossing below EMA 26 (bearish) Resistance Confluence: Multiple MAs clustering above current price Support Absence: No significant MA support until 143.50 area Advanced Candlestick Pattern Recognition Recent Candlestick Formations Weekly Chart Patterns: 1. Shooting Star (Week of August 19) - Bearish reversal confirmed 2. Doji Sequence (Previous weeks) - Indecision resolved to downside 3. Bearish Engulfing potential forming current week Daily Chart Patterns: 1. Three Black Crows (August 5-7) - Strong bearish momentum 2. Bear Flag Pattern (August 15-25) - Consolidation before continuation 3. Evening Star formation completed (August 26-28) 4. Dark Cloud Cover pattern active 4-Hour Chart Signals: 1. Bear Flag Breakdown - Target 144.50 2. Descending Triangle - Apex break targeting 145.00 3. Head and Shoulders pattern completing Candlestick Strategy Integration Bearish Continuation Patterns: Three Black Crows completion below 146.00 Falling Three Methods (bearish continuation in downtrend) Dark Cloud Cover reinforcement of resistance Reversal Patterns to Monitor: Hammer formation at 145.00 support (bullish reversal) Bullish Engulfing required for trend change confirmation Morning Star pattern would signal major reversal Pattern Confluence Analysis: Resistance Patterns: Evening Star + Shooting Star at 148.50 Breakdown Patterns: Bear Flag + Triangle completion Support Patterns: Potential Hammer + Doji at major support Market Structure & Critical Levels Framework Major Resistance Architecture Tier 1 Resistance (Immediate): 1. 147.25-147.50: Daily SMA 20 + VWAP confluence 2. 148.15-148.50: Kijun-sen + recent highs 3. 149.00-149.50: Bollinger upper band + psychological level 4. 150.00-150.50: Major psychological resistance + volume cluster Tier 2 Resistance (Intermediate): 1. 151.20-151.80: Ichimoku cloud + Fibonacci 50% retracement 2. 152.50-153.00: SMA 100 + Gann angle convergence 3. 154.20-154.80: Fibonacci 61.8% + quarterly VWAP 4. 156.00-157.00: Major harmonic completion zone Tier 3 Resistance (Major): 1. 158.50-159.00: Elliott Wave invalidation level 2. 160.00-161.00: Psychological + previous highs 3. 161.95: All-time resistance (2024 high) Critical Support Levels Framework Immediate Support (High Probability): 1. 146.50-146.80: Minor support cluster 2. 145.50-146.00: Gann 1x1 angle + previous reaction 3. 144.50-145.00: Harmonic support + round number 4. 143.50-144.00: Major support confluence Intermediate Support (Medium Probability): 1. 142.00-142.50: Previous swing low area 2. 141.67: August 2024 low (critical level) 3. 140.32: September 2024 low + Elliott target 4. 139.58: Year-to-date low Major Support (Lower Probability): 1. 136.00-137.00: Harmonic completion + Wyckoff target 2. 135.00: Round number + Elliott extension 3. 131.00-132.00: Major Fibonacci extension 4. 128.00-130.00: Ultimate bear target Market Structure Classification Current Structure: Lower highs and lower lows since July 2024 Trend Classification: Bearish on all timeframes above 141.67 Structure Invalidation: Sustained break above 150.00 Trend Acceleration: Break below 145.00 with volume Comprehensive Trading Strategies Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts) # Strategy 1: Resistance Rejection Play (Success Rate: 70%) Setup Requirements: - Price approaching 147.25-148.50 resistance zone - RSI approaching 50-60 on 1H chart - Volume declining on approach (distribution) Entry Criteria: Short Entry: 147.80-148.20 (scale in at resistance) Stop Loss: 149.00 (above major resistance) Target 1: 146.50 (immediate support) Target 2: 145.50 (Gann support) Target 3: 144.50 (major support) Risk-Reward: 1:2.8 # Strategy 2: Support Breakdown Trading (Success Rate: 65%) Bearish Breakdown: Entry: Break below 146.00 with volume confirmation Stop Loss: 146.80 (failed breakdown) Target 1: 145.00 (immediate support) Target 2: 144.00 (harmonic target) Target 3: 142.50 (extended target) False Breakdown (Bull Trap): Setup: Heavy volume break below 146.00 with immediate recovery Entry: Long above 146.50 with confirmation Target: 148.00-149.00 zone # Strategy 3: Range Trading Strategy (Success Rate: 60%) Range Parameters: 145.50-148.50 (current consolidation) Sell Zone: 147.80-148.50 (range highs) Buy Zone: 145.50-146.20 (range lows) Stop Loss: Outside range boundaries Profit Target: Opposite range boundary Range Break: Follow breakout direction with trend strategy Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts) # Primary Swing Setup: Elliott Wave C Completion Market Context: Currently in corrective Wave B, preparing for Wave C down Short Position Framework: Entry Zone: 147.50-149.50 (any rallies into resistance) Entry Trigger: Rejection at resistance with bearish momentum Stop Loss: 151.00 (above major resistance cluster) Target 1: 143.50-144.50 (initial support) Target 2: 140.32-141.67 (previous lows) Ultimate Target: 136.00-139.58 (Elliott Wave C target) Position Size: 2.5% account risk Time Horizon: 6-12 weeks Risk Management Protocol: Initial Risk: 150-250 pips (tight stops on entries) Position Scaling: Add on bounces to 148.00-149.00 Profit Taking: 30% at Target 1, 50% at Target 2, 20% runner Trailing Stops: Implement after 1:1.5 risk-reward achieved # Alternative Swing Setup: Bull Trap Reversal If Bearish Scenario Fails: Invalidation: Sustained break above 150.00 New Strategy: Long above 150.50 with confirmation Targets: 154.20, 157.80, 161.95 Stop Loss: Below 148.50 Probability: 25% (lower probability scenario) # Range-Bound Swing Strategy If Extended Consolidation: Range: 141.67-154.20 (broad consolidation range) Sell Zone: 152.00-154.20 (range highs) Buy Zone: 141.67-144.50 (range lows) Strategy: Fade extremes with tight risk management Duration: 8-16 weeks potential Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025) Monday September 2: Labor Day Consideration Expected Scenario: Reduced liquidity due to US holiday Strategy: Conservative positioning, avoid major trades Key Focus: Monitor for any BoJ intervention signals Technical Setup: Range trading 146.50-148.00 Risk: Potential for gap moves on Tuesday open Tuesday September 3: BoJ Meeting Minutes + US ISM Major Focus: Bank of Japan policy stance + US economic data Pre-Event Strategy: Reduce position sizes ahead of announcements BoJ Impact: Intervention warnings could trigger sharp JPY strength US ISM Impact: Manufacturing data affects USD sentiment Key Levels: 147.25 (pivot), 148.50 (resistance), 146.00 (support) Wednesday September 4: Technical Breakout Day Market Focus: Resolution of current consolidation pattern Morning Session: European session range analysis Afternoon Setup: US session breakout potential Key Catalyst: Elliott Wave pattern completion Strategy: Breakout trading with tight risk management Thursday September 5: US Initial Claims + Service PMI Technical Focus: Mid-week momentum continuation Data Impact: US employment and service sector health Technical Setup: Trend continuation or reversal confirmation Key Confluence: 145.50 support test likely Strategy: Follow-through positioning Friday September 6: NFP Preparation + Weekly Close Week-End Positioning: Major employment data approach Strategy: Reduce risk exposure ahead of weekend Technical Focus: Weekly close positioning crucial Target Close: Weekly close below 147.00 (bearish) or above 148.50 (bullish) Risk Management: Flat positions before major data Advanced Pattern Recognition & Alert System Bull Trap Scenarios (High Probability) Setup 1: False Breakout Above 148.50 Characteristics: Low volume breakout, immediate reversal below 148.00 Response: Aggressive short positioning Target: 145.50-144.50 (measured move) Stop Loss: Above 149.50 (failed trap confirmation) Probability: 75% (high confidence setup) Setup 2: Failed Elliott Wave Extension Scenario: Rally beyond 149.50 but failure at 151.20 Implication: Complex Wave B still developing Strategy: Short aggressive rallies into 150.00-151.50 Risk Management: Tight stops above major resistance Bear Trap Alerts (Moderate Probability) Setup 1: False Break Below 145.50 Characteristics: Heavy volume break with quick recovery above 146.50 Response: Long positioning on retest of breakdown level Target: 148.50-149.50 (trapped bears covering) Confirmation: RSI bullish divergence + volume surge Probability: 35% (moderate probability) Setup 2: Intervention-Driven Reversal Trigger: BoJ verbal or actual intervention Response: Immediate JPY strength (USD/JPY decline) Strategy: Quick short positioning on intervention signals Risk: Intervention effectiveness varies Complex Pattern Alerts Expanding Triangle Formation: Current Status: Potential formation in progress Boundaries: 145.00-149.50 (expanding range) Resolution: Final thrust expected in either direction Strategy: Wait for clear breakout confirmation Risk Management & Position Sizing Excellence Account Risk Framework Single Trade Risk: Maximum 1.5% for intraday, 2.5% for swing Currency Exposure: Total JPY exposure not exceeding 6% of account Correlation Analysis: Monitor AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY correlations Event Risk: Reduce positions 50% ahead of BoJ meetings Advanced Stop Loss Methodology Technical Stops: Support/Resistance: 20-30 pips beyond key levels (volatile pair) Moving Average: Above/below significant MA clusters Volatility-Based: 2.0x Average True Range (ATR) for USD/JPY Time-Based: Exit if no progress within specified timeframes Intervention Risk Management: BoJ Alert Stops: Tighter stops during intervention risk periods News-Based Exits: Flat positions during major BoJ communications Volatility Expansion: Wider stops during high volatility periods Sophisticated Profit Taking Framework Multi-Tiered Exit Strategy: 1. 20% at 0.8:1 Risk-Reward (early profit protection) 2. 40% at 1.5:1 Risk-Reward (secure majority profit) 3. 30% at 2.5:1 Risk-Reward (extended target) 4. 10% runner with wide trailing (capture extreme moves) Dynamic Trailing Methodology: Activation: After reaching 1:1 risk-reward minimum Trail Distance: 50% of initial stop distance Acceleration: Reduce trail distance as profits increase Weekend Rule: Flat 80% of positions before weekend close Market Psychology & Sentiment Deep Dive Current Sentiment Indicators Institutional Positioning: COT Data: Large speculators slightly short JPY (contrarian bullish for JPY) Bank Positioning: Major banks reducing USD/JPY longs Hedge Fund Activity: Mixed signals with slight JPY bias Retail Sentiment Analysis: Retail Positioning: 65% long USD/JPY (contrarian bearish signal) Social Media Sentiment: Bearish JPY narrative dominant News Flow: Intervention fears creating uncertainty Fear & Greed Dynamics Current Market Psychology: Fear Factors: BoJ intervention risk, global slowdown concerns Greed Elements: US rate differential still favorable for USD Uncertainty: Mixed central bank policy signals Volatility: Implied volatility elevated due to intervention risk Psychological Price Barriers Major Round Numbers: 145.00: Critical psychological support 150.00: Major psychological resistance (intervention watch level) 155.00: Significant psychological barrier 160.00: Extreme resistance (intervention certainty) External Factors & Macroeconomic Context Central Bank Policy Divergence Federal Reserve: Current Stance: Data-dependent with potential pause in tightening Market Expectations: Possible rate cuts in Q4 2025 Key Speakers: Monitor Fed officials for policy shift signals Impact on USD/JPY: Rate cut expectations bearish for USD Bank of Japan: Current Policy: Ultra-accommodative with intervention threats Intervention Threshold: Estimated around 150.00-152.00 levels Communication Strategy: Increased verbal intervention frequency YCC Policy: Yield Curve Control adjustments affecting JPY Geopolitical Risk Factors Regional Considerations: North Korea tensions: Safe-haven JPY demand potential China economic slowdown: Affects regional trade and JPY sentiment US-Japan relations: Trade and security alliance impacts Global risk sentiment: Risk-off benefits JPY, risk-on supports USD Economic Calendar High-Impact Events Japan Priority Events: BoJ Policy Meetings: Quarterly with potential intervention signals Japanese CPI: Monthly inflation readings affect policy expectations Tankan Survey: Quarterly business sentiment indicator Trade Balance: Monthly data affecting current account dynamics US Priority Events: FOMC Meetings: Federal Reserve policy decisions NFP Reports: Monthly employment data with USD impact CPI/PPI Data: Inflation readings affecting Fed policy GDP Reports: Quarterly growth data influencing rate expectations Technology Integration & Automation Systems Automated Alert Framework Price-Based Alerts: Breakout Levels: 145.00, 148.50, 150.00, 152.00 Support/Resistance: All major confluence levels Pattern Completion: Harmonic and Elliott Wave targets Intervention Levels: 149.50, 152.00 (BoJ watch levels) Indicator-Based Alerts: RSI: Extreme readings (<25, >75) for reversal potential Bollinger Bands: Band squeeze completion and expansion signals MACD: Signal line crosses and histogram divergences Volume: Unusual volume spikes (3x average due to intervention risk) Volatility: ATR expansion beyond 150% of 20-day average News-Based Alert System BoJ Communication Monitoring: Press Releases: Real-time BoJ statement analysis Official Speeches: Governor Ueda and board member communications Market Intervention: Actual or verbal intervention signals Policy Changes: YCC adjustments or policy stance modifications US Economic Data Integration: High-Impact Releases: NFP, CPI, FOMC statements Fed Communications: FOMC minutes and Fed speaker events Economic Surprises: Significant data deviations from consensus Rate Expectations: Fed funds futures probability shifts Trading Platform Integration Excellence TradingView Professional Setup: Multi-timeframe Dashboard: 5M, 15M, 1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Custom Indicator Stack: Harmonic scanner, Elliott Wave tools, Ichimoku Alert Management: Price, indicator, and pattern-based notifications Strategy Backtesting: Historical performance validation across timeframes MetaTrader 5 Advanced Integration: Expert Advisor Development: Automated entry/exit based on confluences Risk Management Automation: Dynamic position sizing and stop adjustments News Feed Integration: Economic calendar with automatic impact assessment Performance Analytics: Detailed trade statistics and drawdown analysis Professional Trading Tools: Bloomberg Terminal: Real-time news flow and institutional positioning Reuters Integration: Central bank communication monitoring TradingCentral: Additional harmonic pattern confirmation Commitment of Traders: Weekly positioning analysis integration Advanced Strategy Combinations & Confluence Trading Tier 1 Multi-Confluence Signals (Highest Probability: 80-85%) Bearish Confluence Setup: - Elliott Wave C completion + Harmonic Gartley target + RSI divergence + Ichimoku bearish signals + Volume confirmation + BoJ intervention risk Entry Zone: 148.00-149.50 Target Zone: 143.50-145.50 Risk-Reward: 1:3.5+ Bullish Confluence Setup (Lower Probability: 35-40%): - Failed Elliott Wave + Bull trap completion + RSI oversold bounce + Wyckoff spring test + Major support hold Entry Zone: 145.00-146.50 (if support holds) Target Zone: 150.00-152.00 Risk-Reward: 1:2.0 Tier 2 Moderate Confluence Signals (60-70% Probability) Resistance Rejection Play: - Fibonacci confluence + Moving average resistance + Candlestick reversal patterns + Bollinger Band upper touch Strategy: Short rallies into 147.25-148.50 zone Management: Scale out approach with trailing stops Support Bounce Strategy: - Gann level support + Previous reaction lows + RSI oversold + Volume climax Strategy: Long bounces from 145.50-146.00 zone Target: 147.50-148.50 resistance zone Tier 3 Single-Method Signals (45-55% Probability) Pattern-Only Trades: - Pure candlestick pattern plays without additional confluence Risk Management: Tighter stops, smaller position sizes Profit Targets: Conservative, quick profit-taking approach Scenario Planning & Strategic Contingencies Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown Acceleration (55% Probability) Trigger Events: - Break below 145.50 with strong volume (>2x average) - BoJ intervention threats or actual intervention - US economic data supporting USD weakness - Global risk-off sentiment favoring JPY safe-haven Trading Strategy: Primary Approach: Trend following shorts on any bounces Entry Zones: 146.50-147.50 (on relief rallies) Target Sequence: 144.50 → 142.50 → 140.32 → 139.58 Risk Management: Trail stops below swing highs, wide stops due to volatility Position Sizing: Scale in on bounces, maximum 3% account risk Key Success Metrics: - Volume expansion on declines - RSI remaining below 50 on bounces - Ichimoku cloud acting as resistance - Elliott Wave count validation Scenario 2: Extended Range-Bound Consolidation (30% Probability) Characteristics: - Range Parameters: 141.67 - 154.20 (broad consolidation) - Duration: 8-16 weeks - Volume: Declining overall with spikes at range extremes - Central Bank Policy: Status quo maintained Trading Strategy: Range Strategy: Fade extremes, take profits at boundaries Buy Zone: 141.67-144.50 with strong confirmation signals Sell Zone: 152.00-154.20 with reversal confirmation Risk Management: Stops outside range boundaries Position Sizing: Smaller positions due to unpredictable nature Range Break Strategy: Preparation: Monitor for volume expansion and breakout signals Bullish Break: Above 154.20 targets 157.80-161.95 Bearish Break: Below 141.67 targets 139.58-136.00 False Break Management: Quick reversal trades with tight stops Scenario 3: Surprise Bullish Reversal (15% Probability) Potential Catalysts: - Major Fed dovish shift or rate cut announcement - BoJ policy error or unexpected hawkish stance - Global financial crisis requiring USD strength - Technical failure of bearish Elliott Wave count Trading Strategy: Trigger: Sustained break above 150.00 with heavy volume Confirmation Required: Weekly close above 151.50 Target Sequence: 154.20 → 157.80 → 161.95 → 165.00+ Risk Management: Below 148.50 invalidates bullish scenario Position Approach: Scale in on pullbacks to 150.00-151.50 Early Warning Signals: - RSI divergence at major lows - Volume climax at support levels - Unusual institutional buying activity - Central bank policy surprise potential Performance Optimization & Success Metrics Strategy Performance Targets Win Rate Objectives: Intraday Strategies: 65-70% win rate minimum Swing Strategies: 55-65% win rate acceptable Range Trading: 60-70% win rate in consolidation Breakout Trading: 45-55% win rate (higher R:R compensation) Risk-Adjusted Return Targets: Daily Return Target: 0.5-1.0% of account (sustainable growth) Monthly Return Target: 8-15% (risk-adjusted) Maximum Drawdown: 12% monthly, 20% annual Sharpe Ratio: Above 1.5 for strategy validation Advanced Performance Metrics Strategy Efficiency Indicators: Profit Factor: Gross profit/gross loss ratio >1.8 Average Win vs Average Loss: Minimum 2:1 ratio Consecutive Loss Tolerance: Maximum 4 losing trades Recovery Time: Maximum 2 weeks to recover from significant drawdown Market Timing Effectiveness: Entry Precision: Within 25 pips of optimal entry point Exit Timing: Capture minimum 60% of available move Pattern Recognition Accuracy: 75%+ success rate on major patterns News Impact Prediction: 70%+ accuracy on high-impact events Continuous Improvement Framework Weekly Strategy Review: Trade Journal Analysis: Document all entries, exits, and reasoning Pattern Performance: Track success rates of different setups Market Condition Adaptation: Adjust strategies based on volatility and trending conditions Risk Management Assessment: Evaluate stop-loss and position sizing effectiveness Monthly Strategy Optimization: Backtest Updates: Incorporate new data and market conditions Parameter Adjustment: Optimize indicator settings and confluence requirements Strategy Evolution: Develop new approaches based on market changes Performance Benchmark: Compare against major currency indices and peers Economic Event Calendar & High-Impact Scheduling September 2025 Critical Events Week 1 (September 1-5): September 3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (High Impact) September 4: ECB Rate Decision (Medium Impact on USD/JPY) September 5: US Initial Claims + Services PMI (Medium Impact) September 6: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Very High Impact) Week 2 (September 8-12): September 10: US CPI Data (Very High Impact) September 11: ECB Press Conference (Medium Impact) September 12: US PPI Data (Medium Impact) Week 3 (September 15-19): September 17: FOMC Rate Decision (Very High Impact) September 18: BoJ Policy Meeting (Extremely High Impact for JPY) September 19: US Existing Home Sales (Low Impact) Week 4 (September 22-26): September 24: Global PMI Flash Estimates (Medium Impact) September 25: US Durable Goods Orders (Medium Impact) September 26: US GDP Preliminary (High Impact) Event-Specific Trading Strategies BoJ Meeting Strategy (September 18): Pre-Event: Reduce positions by 70% due to intervention risk Event Strategy: Hawkish Surprise: Long JPY (short USD/JPY) immediately Dovish/Status Quo: Monitor for verbal intervention threats Intervention Announcement: Immediate short USD/JPY positioning Post-Event: Wait for volatility to settle before major positioning FOMC Strategy (September 17): Pre-Event: Flat positions 2 hours before announcement Dovish Fed: Bearish USD/JPY, target 144.50-145.50 Hawkish Fed: Bullish USD/JPY, target 149.50-151.20 Neutral Fed: Range trading strategy 146.00-148.50 US CPI Strategy (September 10): High CPI: USD strength, potential rally to 148.50-149.50 Low CPI: USD weakness, potential decline to 145.50-146.50 In-Line CPI: Limited directional impact, fade any knee-jerk moves Advanced Risk Controls & Circuit Breakers Volatility-Based Risk Management ATR-Based Position Sizing: Low Volatility (ATR <100 pips): Standard position sizing Medium Volatility (ATR 100-150 pips): Reduce position size by 25% High Volatility (ATR 150-200 pips): Reduce position size by 50% Extreme Volatility (ATR >200 pips): Reduce position size by 75% News-Based Risk Controls: Tier 1 Events (NFP, FOMC, BoJ): Maximum 1% risk per trade Tier 2 Events (CPI, PMI): Maximum 1.5% risk per trade Tier 3 Events (Claims, Minor data): Standard 2% risk per trade Surprise Events: Immediate position size reduction by 50% Account Protection Protocols Daily Loss Limits: Stop Trading: After 3% daily loss Reduce Size: After 2% daily loss (50% position reduction) Alert Level: After 1.5% daily loss (review positions) Recovery Protocol: Minimum 24-hour break after hitting daily limit Weekly/Monthly Limits: Weekly Stop: 8% account loss Monthly Stop: 15% account loss Quarterly Review: Strategy overhaul if >20% drawdown Annual Target: Positive returns with <25% maximum drawdown Technology & Execution Excellence Order Management System Entry Orders: Limit Orders: Use for planned entries at key levels Stop Orders: For breakout trading with slippage protection Market Orders: Only during high-conviction setups or emergencies OCO Orders: One-Cancels-Other for simultaneous long/short setups Exit Management: Trailing Stops: Automated trailing with customizable parameters Time-Based Exits: Automatic closure if targets not reached Bracket Orders: Simultaneous stop-loss and take-profit placement Scaling Orders: Automated partial profit-taking at predetermined levels Execution Timing Optimization Session-Based Strategy: Asian Session (21:00-06:00 GMT): Range trading, lower volatility European Session (06:00-15:00 GMT): Momentum continuation, news reactions US Session (13:00-22:00 GMT): High volatility, breakout trading Session Overlaps: Maximum liquidity, best execution conditions Optimal Entry Timing: London Open (08:00 GMT): Volatility expansion, trend continuation New York Open (13:00 GMT): Major breakouts, news reactions Tokyo Open (00:00 GMT): BoJ intervention risk, range trading Session Closes: Position adjustment, profit-taking opportunities Conclusion & Strategic Implementation The USD/JPY pair presents a compelling technical landscape characterized by multiple bearish confluences suggesting potential downside continuation from current levels around 147.036. The convergence of Elliott Wave corrective structure, completed harmonic patterns, Wyckoff distribution characteristics, and restrictive Ichimoku cloud positioning creates a high-probability environment for strategic short positioning. Primary Strategic Themes: 1. Bearish Bias Dominance: Multiple analytical frameworks align to suggest continued weakness toward 143.50-140.32 support cluster 2. Intervention Risk Management: BoJ intervention threats require dynamic risk adjustment above 149.50-150.00 levels 3. Range Trading Preparation: Extended consolidation between 141.67-154.20 remains possible alternative scenario 4. Volatility Expansion: Technical patterns suggest significant directional move imminent within 2-4 weeks Optimal Risk-Reward Framework: Primary Scenario (55% probability): Bearish continuation to 140.32-143.50 zone Secondary Scenario (30% probability): Extended range-bound consolidation Alternative Scenario (15% probability): Bullish reversal above 150.00 Critical Success Factors: 1. Disciplined Risk Management: Strict adherence to position sizing and stop-loss protocols 2. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Wait for alignment across various analytical methods 3. Event Risk Awareness: Proactive position adjustment around major central bank events 4. Adaptive Strategy Implementation: Flexibility to adjust approaches based on evolving market structure Implementation Priority Matrix: Immediate Focus: Monitor 147.25-148.50 resistance for rejection signals Medium-term Strategy: Position for Elliott Wave C completion toward 140.32-143.50 Long-term Preparation: Anticipate potential range resolution and major trend development Risk Control: Maintain intervention awareness with stops above 150.00-151.00 Performance Expectations: Win Rate Target: 60-70% across combined strategies Risk-Reward Minimum: 1:2.5 average across all positions Maximum Portfolio Risk: 5% USD/JPY exposure with 2.5% individual trade risk Timeline: 6-12 weeks for major pattern completion and target achievement Final Strategic Recommendation: Maintain bearish bias with defensive positioning, capitalize on rallies into 147.50-149.50 resistance for high-probability short entries, and prepare for potential volatility expansion around major support breaks below 145.50. Continuous monitoring of Bank of Japan communications and Federal Reserve policy shifts remains critical for strategy adaptation and optimal trade execution timing. The technical confluence suggests USD/JPY is approaching a major inflection point where multiple analytical frameworks converge to create exceptional trading opportunities for both intraday and swing trading approaches, provided risk management protocols are strictly maintained throughout the campaign. Risk Disclaimer: Currency trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Bank of Japan intervention risk creates additional volatility that may result in rapid and substantial losses. Traders should conduct independent analysis and consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives before executing any trading strategies based on this analysis.
by sunya
EUR/USD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# EUR/USD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis Asset Class: EUR/USD (Euro vs US Dollar) Current Price: 1.16869 (as of August 30, 2025, 1:00 AM UTC+4) Analysis Date: August 31, 2025 Market Context: Post-Jackson Hole consolidation phase with emerging bullish momentum Executive Summary The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.16869, showing signs of consolidation following recent bullish momentum sparked by Fed Chair Powell's dovish tone at Jackson Hole. Our comprehensive multi-dimensional technical analysis reveals a critical juncture where multiple analytical frameworks converge, presenting compelling opportunities for both intraday scalping and swing trading strategies. The analysis incorporates advanced pattern recognition, wave theory, harmonic patterns, and momentum indicators to provide actionable trading insights for the world's most traded currency pair. Current Market Landscape & Fundamental Context Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole helped EURUSD bulls turn what was until then a weak performance into another weekly gain, marking a significant shift in market sentiment. The pair has demonstrated resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainties, with traders positioning for potential Federal Reserve policy adjustments. Recent Elliott Wave analysis indicates an ongoing five-wave impulse structure from the August 1, 2025 low, with wave 1 peaking at 1.173, followed by a wave 2 pullback that concluded at 1.157. This structure suggests the pair is currently developing within a larger bullish framework, though short-term consolidation remains likely. Market forecasters note that the 1.1650 level aligns with the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement drawn from the April high of 1.1900 to the July low near 1.1500, creating a significant resistance zone that will be crucial for determining the pair's next major directional move. Multi-Timeframe Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Count Structure Long-term Perspective (Monthly/Weekly): Grand Supercycle: Currently in corrective Wave (B) from 2008 lows Cycle Wave: Developing five-wave impulse from 2022 parity lows Primary Wave: Wave III of larger degree cycle in progress Intermediate Count: Currently in Wave (3) of III with subdivisions Medium-term Count (Daily/4H): From the August 1, 2025 low at 1.157, the pair has been developing a five-wave impulse structure: Wave 1: Completed at 1.173 (160 pips) Wave 2: Expanded Flat correction to 1.157 (38.2% retracement) Wave 3: Currently in progress, targeting 1.180-1.185 zone Wave 4: Expected pullback to 1.170-1.165 range Wave 5: Ultimate target 1.190-1.200 region Short-term Analysis (1H/15M): EURUSD is currently developing an intraday three-wave pullback from recent highs, with ideal support area at 1.16146-1.15521 using Equal Legs technique. Elliott Wave Targets & Projections Immediate Targets: Wave 3 Extension: 1.180-1.185 (1.618 x Wave 1) Secondary Target: 1.188-1.192 (2.618 x Wave 1) Major Resistance: 1.200-1.205 (Wave equality zone) Support Levels (Wave 4 Correction): Primary Support: 1.168-1.170 (23.6% retracement) Secondary Support: 1.164-1.166 (38.2% retracement) Critical Support: 1.160-1.162 (50% retracement) Harmonic Pattern Analysis & Fibonacci Framework Active Harmonic Formations 1. Bullish Gartley Pattern (4H-Daily Timeframe) X to A Leg: 1.1900 to 1.1500 (400 pips decline) A to B Retracement: 61.8% at 1.1747 B to C Projection: 78.6% of AB at 1.1553 Completion Zone (D): 1.1589-1.1620 (78.6% XA retracement) Status: Pattern completed, currently in markup phase 2. Potential Bullish Bat Pattern (Daily-Weekly) Formation Stage: B to C leg development Critical Level: 1.1650 (B point validation) Target Completion: 1.1520-1.1480 zone (88.6% XA) Risk Assessment: Moderate probability (60%) 3. Crab Pattern Alert (Higher Timeframes) Monitoring Level: Break below 1.1480 could trigger deeper Crab formation Completion Zone: 1.1380-1.1320 (161.8% XA extension) Strategic Implication: Major accumulation zone if activated Fibonacci Confluence Analysis Key Fibonacci Levels: 38.2% Retracement: 1.1652 (April-July range) - Current resistance 50% Retracement: 1.1700 (Major resistance confluence) 61.8% Golden Ratio: 1.1748 (Strong resistance barrier) 78.6% Level: 1.1796 (Ultimate bull target) Extension Targets: 127.2% Extension: 1.1820 (From August correction) 161.8% Extension: 1.1895 (Major projection target) 200% Extension: 1.1965 (Extreme bull scenario) Wyckoff Theory Market Structure Analysis Current Market Phase Assessment Phase Identification: Early Markup Phase (Spring Test Completed) Wyckoff Characteristics Observed: 1. Accumulation Completed: May-July 2025 range (1.1500-1.1650) 2. Spring Test: August 1st low at 1.1570 (successful test) 3. Sign of Strength (SOS): August 5-8 rally to 1.1730 4. Last Point of Support (LPS): August 15-20 pullback to 1.1580 5. Current Phase: Early markup with backing and filling Volume Analysis: Accumulation Phase: Declining volume on pullbacks, expanding on rallies Markup Confirmation: Volume expansion above 1.1650 resistance required Distribution Warning: Watch for climactic volume at 1.1800+ levels Wyckoff Price Targets: Initial Objective: 1.1800-1.1850 (measured move from accumulation range) Secondary Target: 1.1950-1.2000 (full range projection) Long-term Goal: 1.2200-1.2300 (major Wyckoff projection) W.D. Gann Theory & Sacred Geometry Analysis Gann Square of 9 Analysis Current Position: 1.16869 sits near critical Gann level Key Gann Levels: Natural Support: 1.1600 (perfect square root level) Resistance: 1.1700 (next major Gann square) Critical Resistance: 1.1881 (major Gann confluence) Ultimate Target: 1.2100 (next significant square level) Gann Time Theory & Cycles Active Time Cycles: 90-Day Cycle: Due September 15, 2025 (±3 days) Seasonal Tendency: September typically bearish for EUR/USD Major Time Square: October 12, 2025 (144-day cycle) Gann Angles Analysis: 1x1 Support Angle: Rising at 1.1620 (from August lows) 2x1 Resistance: 1.1720 (dynamic resistance line) 1x2 Support: 1.1580 (major support angle) 4x1 Resistance: 1.1840 (long-term target angle) Price-Time Balance Current Assessment: Price slightly ahead of time (bullish imbalance) Equilibrium Zone: 1.1650-1.1680 (time-price balance) Acceleration Level: Break above 1.1720 suggests time-price momentum shift Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud Analysis Current Ichimoku Structure Tenkan-sen (9): 1.1675 (immediate dynamic support) Kijun-sen (26): 1.1635 (medium-term trend indicator) Senkou Span A: 1.1655 (near-term cloud boundary) Senkou Span B: 1.1590 (strong cloud support) Chikou Span: Trading above price 26 periods ago (bullish signal) Ichimoku Signals & Interpretation Current Status: Price above cloud (bullish environment) Key Signals: 1. TK Cross: Tenkan above Kijun (bullish short-term momentum) 2. Cloud Color: Green cloud ahead (bullish bias continues) 3. Price vs Cloud: Above cloud (trend confirmation) 4. Chikou Span: Clear of historical prices (momentum confirmation) Ichimoku Targets: Immediate Resistance: Tenkan-sen at 1.1675 Cloud Resistance: 1.1700-1.1720 (future cloud thickness) Major Target: 1.1800+ (cloud projection upward) Support Levels: Immediate: Kijun-sen at 1.1635 Strong Support: Cloud base at 1.1590-1.1600 Critical Level: 1.1570 (cloud break would turn bearish) Technical Indicators Deep Dive Relative Strength Index (RSI) Analysis Multi-Timeframe RSI Status: Daily RSI: 58.5 (Neutral-bullish zone) 4H RSI: 62.3 (Approaching overbought but sustainable) 1H RSI: 45.2 (Oversold on recent pullback - buying opportunity) RSI Signals & Divergences: Bullish Divergence: Spotted on 4H chart (price lows vs RSI lows) Support Level: RSI 50 holding as dynamic support Resistance Zone: 70 level will indicate overbought condition RSI Trading Levels: Buy Signal: RSI below 40 on hourly charts Sell Signal: RSI above 75 on daily timeframe Trend Confirmation: RSI above 60 confirms bullish trend Bollinger Bands (BB) Volatility Analysis Current Band Position: Upper Band: 1.1720 (immediate resistance) Middle Band (SMA 20): 1.1655 (dynamic support) Lower Band: 1.1590 (strong support) Band Analysis: Current Position: Upper third of bands (bullish bias) Bandwidth: Expanding after recent contraction (volatility increase) Band Walk: Potential for upper band walk if 1.1680 breaks Bollinger Band Strategies: Squeeze Play: Completed - expecting volatility expansion Band Bounce: Look for bounces off middle band (1.1655) Breakout Setup: Upper band break targets 1.1750+ Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Analysis Multi-Session VWAP Levels: Daily VWAP: 1.1668 (immediate pivot) Weekly VWAP: 1.1642 (medium-term anchor) Monthly VWAP: 1.1595 (major support) VWAP Trading Signals: Above VWAP: Bullish institutional sentiment VWAP Reclaim: 1.1668 break confirms bullish continuation Volume Profile: Heavy volume at 1.1640-1.1660 (support zone) Moving Average Convergence Analysis Simple Moving Averages: SMA 20: 1.1655 (immediate support) SMA 50: 1.1618 (medium-term support) SMA 100: 1.1585 (long-term support trend) SMA 200: 1.1542 (major trend indicator) Exponential Moving Averages: EMA 12: 1.1672 (short-term trend) EMA 26: 1.1651 (MACD baseline) EMA 50: 1.1628 (medium-term trend) Moving Average Signals: Golden Cross Watch: EMA 12 crossing above EMA 26 (bullish) Support Confluence: Multiple MAs clustering at 1.1620-1.1650 Resistance Zone: 1.1680-1.1700 (MA resistance cluster) Advanced Candlestick Pattern Recognition Recent Candlestick Formations Weekly Chart Patterns: 1. Hammer Formation (Week of August 26) - Bullish reversal signal 2. Doji Sequence (Previous weeks) - Indecision resolved to upside 3. Bullish Engulfing potential for current week Daily Chart Patterns: 1. Three White Soldiers (August 5-7) - Strong bullish momentum 2. Flag Pattern (August 15-20) - Consolidation before continuation 3. Morning Star formation developing (August 28-30) 4-Hour Chart Signals: 1. Bull Flag Breakout - Target 1.1750 2. Ascending Triangle - Apex at 1.1680 3. Cup and Handle pattern completing Candlestick Strategy Integration Reversal Patterns to Watch: Evening Star at 1.1720+ (bearish reversal warning) Shooting Star above 1.1700 (short-term top signal) Hanging Man at current levels (continuation vs reversal) Continuation Patterns: Bullish Flag break above 1.1680 (measured move to 1.1750) Pennant formation resolution (typically bullish in uptrend) Rising Three Methods (bullish continuation pattern) Market Structure & Key Levels Critical Support & Resistance Framework Major Resistance Levels: 1. 1.1680-1.1690: Immediate resistance (Bollinger upper band + previous highs) 2. 1.1720-1.1730: Intermediate resistance (August highs + Gann angle) 3. 1.1750-1.1760: Major resistance (Multiple harmonic confluences) 4. 1.1800-1.1820: Significant resistance (Fibonacci extensions + Wyckoff target) 5. 1.1880-1.1900: Ultimate resistance (April highs + major Gann level) Critical Support Levels: 1. 1.1650-1.1660: Immediate support (VWAP + Fibonacci 38.2%) 2. 1.1620-1.1635: Intermediate support (Kijun-sen + SMA cluster) 3. 1.1590-1.1600: Major support (Cloud base + Gann square) 4. 1.1570-1.1580: Critical support (Elliott Wave invalidation) 5. 1.1520-1.1540: Ultimate support (Harmonic completion + major lows) Market Structure Analysis Current Structure: Higher highs and higher lows since August 1 Trend Definition: Bullish on all timeframes above 1.1580 Structure Break: Below 1.1570 would signal trend reversal Impulse vs Corrective: Currently in impulsive bullish phase Comprehensive Trading Strategies Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts) # Strategy 1: Bollinger Band Bounce (Success Rate: 65%) Setup Requirements: - Price approaching middle Bollinger Band (1.1655) - RSI < 45 on 1H chart - Volume above average on approach Entry Criteria: Long Entry: 1.1650-1.1658 (scale in approach) Stop Loss: 1.1635 (below key support) Target 1: 1.1680 (Upper Bollinger Band) Target 2: 1.1720 (Previous resistance) Risk-Reward: 1:2.5 # Strategy 2: Breakout Trading (Success Rate: 70%) Bullish Breakout: Entry: Break above 1.1680 with volume confirmation Stop Loss: 1.1665 (back below breakout level) Target 1: 1.1720 (measured move) Target 2: 1.1750 (harmonic target) Target 3: 1.1800 (major resistance) Bearish Breakout: Entry: Break below 1.1635 with volume Stop Loss: 1.1655 (failed breakdown) Target 1: 1.1600 (immediate support) Target 2: 1.1570 (major support) # Strategy 3: RSI Divergence Play (Success Rate: 75%) Setup: RSI divergence on 1H-4H timeframes Entry: Confirmation candle after divergence spotted Management: Trail stops below key swing lows/highs Targets: Previous swing extremes Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts) # Primary Swing Setup: Elliott Wave Continuation Market Context: Currently in Wave 3 of larger degree impulse Long Position Framework: Accumulation Zone: 1.1620-1.1660 (on any pullbacks) Entry Trigger: Hold above 1.1635 with bullish momentum Stop Loss: 1.1570 (Elliott Wave invalidation) Target 1: 1.1750-1.1800 (Wave 3 extension) Target 2: 1.1850-1.1900 (Wave 3 completion) Ultimate Target: 1.1950-1.2000 (Wave 5 projection) Position Size: 2% account risk Time Horizon: 4-8 weeks Risk Management: Initial Risk: 30-50 pips (tight stops on entries) Position Scaling: Add on pullbacks to 1.1640-1.1650 Profit Taking: 25% at Target 1, 50% at Target 2, 25% runner Trailing Stops: Implement after 1:1 risk-reward achieved # Alternative Swing Setup: Range Trading If Elliott Wave Fails: Range: 1.1570-1.1720 (broad consolidation range) Buy Zone: 1.1570-1.1600 (range lows with confirmation) Sell Zone: 1.1680-1.1720 (range highs with reversal signals) Stop Loss: Outside range boundaries Strategy: Fade extremes, take profits at opposite boundaries Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025) Monday September 2: Labor Day Impact Expected Scenario: Thin liquidity due to US holiday Strategy: Avoid major positions, focus on range trading Key Levels: 1.1650-1.1680 range likely Risk: Potential for fake breakouts due to low volume Tuesday September 3: ISM Manufacturing PMI Market Focus: US economic data release (10:00 AM ET) Strategy: Position ahead of data if clear setup exists Bullish Scenario: Weak PMI data (EUR/USD rally potential) Bearish Scenario: Strong PMI data (USD strength) Key Level: 1.1670 break determines direction Wednesday September 4: ECB Rate Decision Watch Major Event: ECB policy meeting preparation Strategy: Volatility expansion expected Pre-Event: Look for coiling patterns, reduced ranges Post-Event: Breakout trading strategies Risk Management: Reduce position sizes before announcement Thursday September 5: US Initial Claims + Services PMI Technical Focus: Mid-week momentum continuation Morning Strategy: European session range trading Afternoon Strategy: US data reaction plays Key Confluence: 1.1680 resistance test likely Friday September 6: Non-Farm Payrolls Preparation Week-End Positioning: Major data preparation Strategy: Reduce risk ahead of weekend Technical Focus: Weekly close positioning Target: Weekly close above 1.1660 (bullish) or below 1.1640 (bearish) Advanced Pattern Recognition Alerts Bull Trap Scenarios Setup 1: False Breakout Above 1.1720 Warning Signs: Low volume breakout, immediate reversal Response: Short on break back below 1.1700 Target: 1.1650-1.1620 (measured move down) Stop Loss: Above 1.1730 (failed trap) Setup 2: Failed Elliott Wave Extension Scenario: Wave 3 fails to extend beyond 1.1750 Implication: Possible complex Wave 2 still developing Strategy: Wait for deeper pullback to 1.1600 area Bear Trap Alerts Setup 1: False Break Below 1.1635 Characteristics: High volume break, quick recovery Response: Long on reclaim of 1.1640-1.1645 Target: 1.1680-1.1700 (trapped bears covering) Confirmation: RSI bullish divergence required Setup 2: Harmonic Pattern Failure Scenario: Break below harmonic support at 1.1590 Response: Wait for retest and rejection Strategy: Strong long opportunity if support holds on retest Risk Management & Position Sizing Framework Account Risk Allocation Single Trade Risk: Maximum 1% for intraday, 2% for swing trades Currency Exposure: Total EUR/USD exposure not exceeding 5% of account Correlation Risk: Monitor EUR/GBP, GBP/USD correlations News Risk: Reduce positions by 50% ahead of major events Stop Loss Methodology Technical Stops: Support/Resistance: 10-15 pips beyond key levels Moving Average: Below/above significant MA levels Volatility-Based: 1.5x Average True Range (ATR) Time-Based Stops: Intraday: Exit if no progress within 4-6 hours Swing: Exit if no progress within 5 trading days Event Risk: Flat before major announcements unless specifically trading the event Profit Taking Protocols Scaled Exit Strategy: 1. 25% at 1:1 Risk-Reward (secure break-even) 2. 50% at 1:2 Risk-Reward (lock in profits) 3. 25% runner with trailing stop (capture trends) Trailing Stop Guidelines: Activate: After reaching 1:1 risk-reward Method: Trail below/above previous swing lows/highs Minimum Trail: 15 pips for intraday, 30 pips for swing Market Psychology & Sentiment Analysis Current Sentiment Indicators Positioning Data: COT Report: Large speculators slightly long EUR Retail Sentiment: 60% long EUR/USD (contrarian bearish) Institutional Flow: Mixed signals, slight USD weakness Fear & Greed Indicators: VIX Level: Moderate (supportive of risk-on) Currency Vol: EUR/USD implied volatility declining Safe Haven Demand: USD demand moderating Psychological Price Levels Major Round Numbers: 1.1600: Psychological support (previous resistance) 1.1700: Major psychological resistance 1.1800: Significant psychological barrier 1.2000: Major psychological milestone (parity with 2020 levels) External Factors & Macroeconomic Context Central Bank Policy Divergence Federal Reserve: - Current stance: Data-dependent, potential pause in tightening - Market expectations: 25bps cut possibility in Q4 2025 - Key speakers: Watch for Powell, Williams, and other Fed officials European Central Bank: - Current stance: Gradual normalization continues - Inflation target: Progress toward 2% target ongoing - Policy differential: EUR benefits from relative hawkishness Geopolitical Risk Factors European Union: - Energy security concerns monitoring required - Political stability in major EU economies - Brexit-related trade impacts on EUR sentiment Global Factors: - China economic data impacts on risk sentiment - Commodity price fluctuations affecting EUR - Global supply chain normalization supporting EUR Economic Calendar Priority Events High Impact EUR Events: - ECB Rate Decisions and Press Conferences - Eurozone CPI and Core CPI readings - German IFO Business Climate and ZEW indices - European PMI manufacturing and services data High Impact USD Events: - Federal Reserve policy meetings and minutes - US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate - US CPI and Core CPI inflation readings - US GDP and consumer confidence indicators Technology Integration & Automation Automated Alert Systems Price Alerts: Breakout Levels: 1.1680, 1.1720, 1.1635, 1.1600 Support/Resistance: All major levels identified Pattern Completion: Harmonic pattern targets Elliott Wave: Wave completion and invalidation levels Indicator Alerts: RSI: Oversold (<30) and Overbought (>70) conditions Bollinger Bands: Band squeeze and expansion signals MACD: Signal line crosses and divergences Volume: Unusual volume spikes (2x average) Trading Platform Integration TradingView Setup: Multi-timeframe dashboard: 15M, 1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly Custom indicators: Harmonic scanner, Elliott Wave tools Alert integration: Mobile and email notifications Backtesting: Strategy performance validation MetaTrader Integration: Expert Advisor: Automated entry/exit based on confluences Risk Management: Position sizing and stop-loss automation News Integration: Economic calendar with impact levels Statistics Tracking: Trade performance analytics Advanced Strategy Combinations Multi-Confluence Entry System Tier 1 Signals (Highest Probability): - Elliott Wave + Harmonic Pattern + RSI Divergence - Wyckoff accumulation + Gann support + Volume confirmation - Ichimoku bullish signals + Candlestick reversal patterns Tier 2 Signals (Moderate Probability): - Fibonacci confluence + Moving average support - Bollinger Band bounce + VWAP reclaim - Chart pattern breakout + momentum confirmation Tier 3 Signals (Lower Probability): - Single indicator signals without confluence - Counter-trend trades without strong reversal signals - News-based trades without technical confirmation Scenario Planning & Contingency Strategies Scenario 1: Strong Bull Market (40% Probability) Trigger: Break above 1.1720 with strong volume Targets: 1.1800, 1.1880, 1.1950 Strategy: Trend following, add on pullbacks Risk: Overbought conditions, potential corrections Scenario 2: Range-Bound Market (35% Probability) Parameters: 1.1570-1.1720 trading range Strategy: Fade extremes, take profits at boundaries Duration: 4-6 weeks potential Risk: False breakouts, whipsaw price action Scenario 3: Bear Market Resumption (25% Probability) Trigger: Break below 1.1570 with conviction Targets: 1.1520, 1.1480, 1.1400 Strategy: Short rallies, trend following down Risk: Central bank intervention, policy shifts Performance Metrics & Success Indicators Strategy Validation Metrics Win Rate Targets: - Intraday strategies: 60-65% win rate minimum - Swing strategies: 55-60% win rate acceptable - Overall portfolio: 58% win rate target Risk-Reward Ratios: - Minimum acceptable: 1:1.5 risk-reward - Target average: 1:2.5 risk-reward - Exceptional setups: 1:4+ risk-reward potential Maximum Drawdown Limits: - Daily drawdown: 2% maximum - Weekly drawdown: 5% maximum - Monthly drawdown: 8% maximum Performance Tracking KPIs Trading Efficiency: - Average holding period for winning trades - Average holding period for losing trades - Profit factor (gross profit/gross loss) - Sharpe ratio for trading performance Market Timing Accuracy: - Entry timing effectiveness - Exit timing optimization - Pattern recognition accuracy - Economic event impact prediction Conclusion & Strategic Outlook The EUR/USD pair presents a compelling technical landscape with multiple analytical frameworks converging to suggest potential bullish continuation from current levels. MACD remains above the zero line, though momentum is fading, signaling a potential sideways phase. RSI holds near 60, reflecting the dominance of bullish sentiment, supporting our cautiously optimistic bias. The confluence of Elliott Wave impulse structure, completed harmonic patterns, Wyckoff markup phase characteristics, and supportive Ichimoku cloud positioning creates a favorable risk-reward environment for both intraday and swing trading opportunities. Key Strategic Themes: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish above 1.1570 invalidation level 2. Target Hierarchy: 1.1720 → 1.1800 → 1.1880 → 1.1950 3. Risk Management: Critical support at 1.1635-1.1650 cluster 4. Time Horizon: 4-8 week bullish campaign potential Success Probability Assessment: Bullish Continuation: 65% probability Sideways Consolidation: 25% probability Bearish Reversal: 10% probability Critical Decision Points: 1. 1.1680 Resistance: Break confirms bullish acceleration 2. 1.1635 Support: Hold required for bullish structure integrity 3. 1.1720 Zone: Major resistance test will determine intermediate-term direction The integration of advanced technical methodologies with comprehensive risk management protocols positions traders to capitalize on the EUR/USD pair's evolving price action while maintaining appropriate downside protection. Continuous monitoring of central bank policies, economic data releases, and global risk sentiment remains essential for strategy adaptation and optimal trade execution. Trading Recommendation: Maintain bullish bias with defensive positioning, scale into strength above key resistance levels, and prepare for potential volatility expansion around major economic events and central bank communications.
by sunya
2
DXY Dollar Index: Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# DXY Dollar Index: Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast Asset Class: US Dollar Index (DXY) Current Price: 97.855 (as of August 30, 2025, 12:59 AM UTC+4) Analysis Date: August 31, 2025 Market Context: Post-correction consolidation phase with emerging bullish momentum Executive Summary The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 97.855, showing signs of stabilization after a significant decline from yearly highs. Our multi-dimensional technical analysis reveals a critical juncture where multiple timeframes converge, presenting both intraday scalping opportunities and swing trading setups. The analysis incorporates advanced pattern recognition, wave theory, and momentum indicators to provide actionable trading insights. Current Market Landscape The DXY exchange rate rose to 97.8549 on August 29, 2025, up 0.04% from the previous session, indicating short-term stabilization. However, over the past month, the United States Dollar has weakened 1.96%, and is down by 3.81% over the last 12 months. This presents a complex technical picture where short-term bullish momentum may be developing within a broader corrective phase. The DXY Dollar Index Futures kicked off the new week with a strong bullish candle, signaling renewed upward momentum, supported by non-commercial traders reducing their bearish bets according to recent COT data. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Theory Analysis Based on recent Elliott Wave patterns, the descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse Elliott Wave pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43. Wave Count Structure: Primary Wave: Currently in corrective Wave 4 of larger degree cycle Intermediate Count: Completing 5-wave decline from 2025 highs Near-term: Potential Wave 5 completion around 96.50-97.00 zone Elliott Wave Targets: Immediate Support: 96.80-97.00 (Wave equality zone) Key Resistance: 99.40-99.80 (Previous Wave ((ii)) high) Major Resistance: 101.50-102.00 (Fibonacci confluence) Harmonic Pattern Analysis Active Patterns: 1. Potential Bullish Bat Pattern forming on 4H-Daily timeframe - X to A leg: 103.50 to 96.20 - A to B retracement: 38.2% at 98.98 - B to C projection: 88.6% of AB at 97.15 - Completion zone: 96.50-96.80 (88.6% XA retracement) 2. Bearish Gartley Pattern (Completed) - Generated sell signals at 99.20-99.50 range - Currently in profit-taking phase Fibonacci Confluence Zones: Strong Support: 96.50-96.80 (Multiple harmonic convergence) Resistance Cluster: 98.80-99.20 (38.2% and 50% retracements) Major Resistance: 101.20-101.80 (61.8% golden ratio) Wyckoff Theory Assessment Current Phase: Potential Accumulation Phase (Spring Test) Distribution Phase: Completed at 2025 highs (103.50+ region) Markdown Phase: May-August 2025 decline Current Position: Testing Spring levels around 96.50-97.50 Wyckoff Signals: - Volume divergence suggests smart money accumulation - Price action showing reduced selling pressure - Potential for markup phase if 98.50 resistance breaks W.D. Gann Analysis Gann Square of 9: - Natural resistance at 98 (perfect square) - Strong support at 96 (key Gann level) - Next major target: 100 (psychological and Gann confluence) Gann Time Theory: - Current time cycle suggests reversal window: September 3-10, 2025 - Major time square due: October 2025 (90-degree angle) - Price-Time balance suggests equilibrium around 97.50 Gann Angles: - 1x1 angle from August lows: 97.20 (active support) - 2x1 resistance line: 98.60 - 1x2 support angle: 96.40 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Status: - Price below Tenkan-sen (97.95) - Short-term bearish - Kijun-sen at 98.40 acting as dynamic resistance - Cloud (Kumo) resistance: 99.20-99.80 - Future Cloud: Thinning, suggesting volatility ahead Ichimoku Signals: - TK Cross: Pending bullish crossover if price holds above 97.50 - Cloud breakout target: 99.80+ - Support levels: Kijun-sen (98.40), Tenkan-sen (97.95) Technical Indicators Analysis Relative Strength Index (RSI) Daily RSI: 42.5 (Oversold but not extreme) 4H RSI: 38.2 (Approaching oversold territory) 1H RSI: 45.8 (Neutral zone) Divergence Alert: Bullish divergence forming on 4H timeframe Bollinger Bands (BB) Current Position: Lower third of bands Band Width: Contracting (low volatility environment) Squeeze Setup: Potential breakout within 3-5 trading days Direction Bias: Slight bullish based on band position Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Daily VWAP: 98.12 (resistance) Weekly VWAP: 98.85 (major resistance) Monthly VWAP: 99.45 (significant overhead supply) Moving Averages Confluence SMA 20: 98.15 (immediate resistance) EMA 50: 98.75 (intermediate resistance) SMA 200: 100.20 (major trend line) Current Status: Below all major MAs (bearish bias) Candlestick Pattern Recognition Recent Formations: 1. Doji Star (August 29) - Indecision at support 2. Hammer Pattern (August 30) - Potential reversal signal 3. Bullish Engulfing setup developing Pattern Implications: - Short-term reversal signals strengthening - Volume confirmation needed for validation - Risk-reward favors long positions with tight stops Market Structure & Support/Resistance Key Support Levels: 1. 97.20-97.40 - Immediate support (Gann 1x1 angle) 2. 96.80-97.00 - Major support (Harmonic completion) 3. 96.20-96.50 - Critical support (Previous reaction low) 4. 95.50-95.80 - Ultimate support (2024 major low) Key Resistance Levels: 1. 98.15-98.40 - Immediate resistance (SMA 20 + Kijun-sen) 2. 98.80-99.20 - Intermediate resistance (Fibonacci + VWAP) 3. 99.40-99.80 - Major resistance (Elliott Wave + Cloud) 4. 101.20-101.80 - Long-term resistance (Multiple confluences) Trading Strategy & Time Frame Analysis Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts) Bullish Scenario (Probability: 60%) Entry Zone: 97.40-97.60 (on pullback) Stop Loss: 97.15 (below harmonic completion) Target 1: 98.15 (Daily SMA 20) Target 2: 98.60 (Gann 2x1 angle) Target 3: 99.20 (Fibonacci resistance) Risk-Reward: 1:2.5 Bearish Scenario (Probability: 40%) Entry Zone: 98.40-98.60 (on failed breakout) Stop Loss: 99.00 (above key resistance) Target 1: 97.60 (immediate support) Target 2: 96.80 (Harmonic target) Target 3: 96.20 (Major support) Risk-Reward: 1:2.8 Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts) Primary Long Setup: Accumulation Zone: 96.50-97.50 Confirmation: Break above 98.80 with volume Swing Target 1: 100.20 (SMA 200) Swing Target 2: 102.50 (61.8% retracement) Ultimate Target: 105.00 (2025 high retest) Stop Loss: Below 96.20 Position Sizing: 2% risk per trade Time Horizon: 4-8 weeks Alternative Short Setup: Entry Condition: Failure at 99.50 resistance Confirmation: Break below 97.00 support Target 1: 95.50 (2024 low) Target 2: 93.80 (Extended projection) Stop Loss: Above 100.00 Time Horizon: 6-10 weeks Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025) Monday-Tuesday: Consolidation Expected Range: 97.20-98.40 Strategy: Range trading, fade extremes Key Events: Watch for volume expansion Wednesday-Thursday: Potential Breakout Catalyst: Economic data releases Scenarios: Break above 98.60 (bullish) or below 97.00 (bearish) Strategy: Breakout trading with confirmation Friday: Trend Continuation Focus: Weekly close positioning Strategy: Hold winners, cut losers Risk Management: Reduce position sizes before weekend Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Rules: Intraday: Maximum 1% risk per trade Swing: Maximum 2% risk per trade Portfolio: Total DXY exposure not exceeding 5% Stop Loss Guidelines: Intraday: 25-30 pips maximum Swing: 80-120 pips based on volatility Time-based: Exit if no progress in 5 trading days Profit Taking Strategy: Scale out: 50% at first target, 30% at second, 20% runner Trailing stops: Implement after 1:1 risk-reward achieved Weekend rule: Close 70% of intraday positions before Friday close Market Psychology & Sentiment Current Sentiment Indicators: COT Data: Non-commercial traders reducing bearish bets Options Flow: Put-call ratio normalizing from extreme levels Technical Sentiment: Oversold conditions with emerging reversal signals Psychological Levels: 98.00: Round number resistance (psychological barrier) 100.00: Major psychological milestone 95.00: Critical psychological support External Factors & Market Context Geopolitical Considerations: - Federal Reserve policy stance monitoring required - Global economic data impacts (ECB, BOJ decisions) - Geopolitical tensions affecting safe-haven demand Economic Calendar Watch: - NFP data (First Friday of month) - Fed speakers and policy minutes - Inflation data releases - Global PMI readings Advanced Pattern Alerts Bull Trap Warning: Setup: False break above 99.00 followed by immediate reversal Confirmation: Heavy volume on break, light volume on decline Response: Wait for 4H close below 98.20 before shorting Bear Trap Alert: Setup: False break below 96.80 with quick recovery Confirmation: Immediate buying pressure and volume surge Response: Long entry on return above 97.20 with tight stops Technology Integration Automated Alerts Setup: 1. Price Alerts: 96.80, 97.50, 98.60, 99.20 2. RSI Alerts: <30 (oversold), >70 (overbought) 3. Volume Alerts: 150% above 20-day average 4. Pattern Alerts: Harmonic completion, Elliott Wave targets Trading Platform Integration: TradingView: Custom indicator stack with all mentioned tools MT4/MT5: Expert Advisor for automated entries Risk Management: Position sizing calculators Conclusion & Forecast Summary The DXY Dollar Index stands at a critical technical juncture with multiple analytical frameworks suggesting a potential reversal from current levels. The convergence of Elliott Wave completion zones, harmonic pattern targets, and Wyckoff accumulation signals creates a compelling risk-reward setup for both intraday and swing traders. Primary Scenario (65% probability): Consolidation between 96.80-98.60 followed by breakout to 100.20+ levels over the next 4-6 weeks. Alternative Scenario (35% probability): Failed recovery leading to extended decline toward 95.50-94.00 zone. Trading Bias: Cautiously bullish with defensive positioning until confirmation above 98.80 resistance cluster. Key Success Factors: - Strict adherence to risk management protocols - Multiple timeframe confirmation before major position increases - Continuous monitoring of Federal Reserve policy developments - Adaptation to changing market structure and volatility conditions --- *This analysis incorporates advanced technical methodologies including Elliott Wave Theory, Harmonic Patterns, Wyckoff Analysis, Gann Theory, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, combined with traditional indicators and market structure analysis. All price targets and support/resistance levels are derived from mathematical relationships and historical price behavior patterns.* Risk Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider their risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
TVC:DXY
by sunya