Could the Kiwi bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.5886
1st Support: 0.5848
1st Resistance: 0.5942
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
J-USD
Falling towards swing low support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a swing low support and could bounce to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 0.6420
1st Support: 0.6390
1st Resistance: 0.6486
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bearish drop?The Cable (GBP/USD) has rejected off the pivot, which acts as a pullback resistance, and could drop from this level to the 1st support, which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.3522
1st Support: 1.3402
1st Resistance: 1.3587
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce for the Fiber?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a multi-swing high resistance.
Pivot: 1.1591
1st Support: 1.1532
1st Resistance: 1.1715
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off swing low support?AUD/USD is falling towards the support lev which is a swing low support and could bouce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6420
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support.
Stop loss: 0.6388
Why we like it:
There is a multi swing low support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 0.6481
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?XAG/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 37.67
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 38.62
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
Take profit: 36.30
Why we like it:
There is a multi swing low support.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD (Daily)EUR/USD Daily Chart shows a clear bullish trend, with demand consistently supporting higher prices. The most probable scenario is a breakout above 1.2000, targeting 1.2202. This aligns perfectly with your DXY analysis, where further USD weakness supports Euro strength.
🔎 Chart Context
• Pair: EUR/USD
• Broker: FXCM
• Timeframe: 1D (Daily)
• Date: 19 August 2025
This chart shows the Euro’s performance against the US Dollar. Since EUR/USD is strongly inversely correlated with the DXY, this analysis complements the DXY bearish outlook.
📊 Key Observations
1. Macro Trend
• EUR/USD bottomed near 1.0200 earlier in 2025.
• Since then, price has established a strong bullish uptrend, breaking through multiple resistance levels.
• Current structure shows higher highs and higher lows, confirming a bullish market bias.
2. Support & Demand Zones
• Key demand zone around 1.1100 – 1.1200, previously a resistance-turned-support.
• A well-defined S/D (supply → demand flip) is visible, showing institutional accumulation.
• Price respected this area on multiple retests, suggesting strong bullish interest.
3. Resistance Zones
• 1.2000: Psychological resistance and liquidity pool.
• 1.2202: Next major projected upside target, marked on the chart.
• Price is consolidating below 1.2000, building energy for a potential breakout.
4. Liquidity Behavior
• Market has absorbed sellers around 1.1600–1.1700, pushing into higher levels.
• Liquidity likely rests above 1.2000, where stop orders are clustered.
• If price clears this, a sweep toward 1.2202 becomes very probable.
5. Projected Path
• Chart projection suggests a bullish continuation:
• Short-term pullback → retest of demand zone (around 1.1600–1.1700).
• Then breakout above 1.2000.
• Final move toward 1.2202 liquidity zone.
📈 Bullish Case (Higher Probability)
• Structure strongly favors bulls.
• Scenario:
• If EUR/USD sustains above 1.1600 demand, breakout above 1.2000 is expected.
• Target 1: 1.2000 (psychological & liquidity).
• Target 2: 1.2202 (projected liquidity sweep).
• This aligns with DXY bearish outlook (as seen in your previous chart).
📉 Bearish Case (Low Probability, Countertrend)
• Only valid if price breaks back below 1.1100 demand zone.
• Downside targets:
• 1.0800 (structural support).
• 1.0500 (deep retracement).
• This would require a sudden USD strength revival, which contradicts current DXY projection.
⚡ Trading Plan
• Long Setup (Preferred):
• Entry: Pullbacks into 1.1600–1.1700 demand zone.
• TP1: 1.2000
• TP2: 1.2202
• Stop-loss: Below 1.1100
• Short Setup (Risky, Countertrend):
• Entry: At 1.2000 liquidity zone if price rejects strongly.
• TP: 1.1600
• Stop: Above 1.2202
GOLD - BULLISH TO $3,734 (1H UPDATE)Scenario 1: Waiting for an ‘Impulse Wave’ to break above $3,380 then I’ll look to enter further buys upon Wave 2 correction.
Scenario 2: Keep an eye out for potential resistance around $3,360 zone, as there’s been a lot of bearish rejections in that zone for daily candles. If this zone holds for sellers, we could enter another sell & target $3,200📉
We got CAN CPIs, let's see how GB CPIs will lookWe just received a surprise reading on the Canadian CPIs, which were on the lower side. Let's see what happens with the British ones.
Let's dig in.
FX_IDC:USDCAD
MARKETSCOM:USDCAD
FX_IDC:GBPUSD
MARKETSCOM:GBPUSD
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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GOLD H4 | Potential bearish dropXAU/USD is reacting off the sell entry of 3,342.80, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this levle to the downside.
Stop loss is at 3,367.03, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 3,306.77, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
AUDUSD H4 | Falling towards Fibonacci confluenceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry which is a pullback support and could bounce from this levle to the take profit.
Buy entry is at 0.6453, whichis a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fib retracement, 78.6% Fib projection and is also slightly below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss is at 0.6421, which is a swing low support.
Tak eprofit is at 0.6519, which is a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USDJPY H4 | Bearish reversal USD/JPY is rising towards the sell entry, which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 148.67, which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 150.81, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 146.37, which is a swing low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USDCHF H4 | Bearish dropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has rejected off the sell entry and could potentially drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 0.8087, which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 0.8120, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 0.8018, which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GBPUSD H4 | Bullish bounce GBP/USD is falling towards the buy entry which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 1.3461, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 1.3379, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.3580, which is a multi swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURUSD H4 | Bullish bounce off overlap supportThe Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the buy entry which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could bounce from this level to the take profit.
Buy entry is at 1.1590, which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss is at 1.1529, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.1715, which is a multi swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
DXY Consolidates SidewaysTVC:DXY continues to consolidate and be held between a Resistance and Support Between:
Resistance @ 98.2 - 98.3
Support @ 97.75 - 97.6
If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Resistance, this will see the USD gain strength temporarily til the Next Resistance Level @ 98.5 - 98.95
If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Support, this will see the USD lose strength temporarily til the Next Support Level @ 97.3 - 97.1
Fundamentally, Tariffs will continue to effect the underlying inflation issue USD deals with along with expectations gaining of not only 1 but a few Interest Cuts could come from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year! This could severely weaken USD!
Nikkei 225 & USD/JPY AnalysisThe Nikkei 225 has reached new all-time highs (almost reaching 44,000), driven by strong domestic economic indicators and robust corporate earnings.
The yen has strengthened against the US dollar, influenced by
1) speculation over the timing of a rate cut from the FOMC, and
2) the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance and expectations of interest rate hikes.
(narrowing of monetary policy between the two countries)
Historically, a weaker yen (rising USD/JPY - thin blue line) has been beneficial for Japanese exporters, leading to increased corporate earnings and, consequently, a rising Nikkei 225.
But, at times, this inverse relationship has shown signs of divergence.
The current divergence between the USDJPY and the Nikkei 225 suggests that the Nikkei 225 is increasingly driven by domestic economic factors rather than the traditional USD/JPY correlation.
In the short term, the Nikkei 225 may continue its upward momentum, supported by strong economic fundamentals and investor confidence.
With the price breaking out and staying above the upward channel, climbing toward the 45,000 price level.
Medium-Term Risks: Potential geopolitical tensions and shifts in global economic conditions could introduce volatility in the medium term. This could lead to a retracement down to 42,000 before trading higher again.
While the traditional correlation has weakened, ongoing monitoring of USD/JPY movements remains essential, as significant fluctuations could still impact investor sentiment.
Bearish reversal off 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support, which acts as a multi-swing low support.
Pivot: 17.79757
1st Support: 17.47879
1st Resistance: 18.03295
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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USDZAR - Forecast, Outlook and Market WatchHello fellow Market Watchers ☕
Today I'll take a top-view look at the USDZAR chart. And since I am in South Africa, this pair is of particular interest to me.
Now recently, the US introduced a 10% baseline tariff on most imports and lifted metals tariffs to 25%. Additionally, citrus, nuts, grapes and wine have been subjected to 30% duties since Aug. 7.
There is no doubt that in the short term, this will cause ripple effects throughout the economy but in the long run, South Africa will find new trading partners - this is how trade works. This will likely extend to Asian markets. The priority is to export more to China, where duty-free access has already been secured for five types of fruit (unsure which fruits these are).
South Africa will continue to strengthen ties with other countries to lessen reliance on the US for exports. Therefore, this is merely a short term hurdle.
From the monthly perspective, we see a clear peak. A double top marks the price where sellers are ready to dominate:
Although we've had two bearish micro-cycles (lasting just over two years and a year respectively), the multiyear trend has been bullish - almost "up only" since August 2011.
July US inflation cooled, so markets still expect the Fed to cut rates in September. Futures point to a strong chance of a 25 bps cut, and the dollar has lost some momentum. When rate-cut odds rise and inflation-adjusted US bond yields fall, higher-beta currencies like the rand often firm up.
However on a bullish note for the Rand, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the repo to 7.00% in July and said it aims at the bottom of the 3–6% target band, while June CPI printed 3.0%. This is optimistic news for the Rand, and further supports a decline on the chart.
What to watch next
• Fed path into September. Base case: a 25 bps cut.
• DXY (the US dollar index). Softer DXY tends to help ZAR.
• US real yields from the Treasury’s par real yield curve. Drifting lower is rand-friendly.
• Powell at Jackson Hole. A tougher tone on inflation could cap rand gains.
10 Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security - Lower US real yields usually lift demand for higher-yielding EM assets, leading to Rand strengthening.
DXY - A softer DXY = less broad USD strength, ZAR increases/strengthens
Gold and Platinum - If these increase, that supports SA's exports and likely helps the Rand considering the export volume. It should be noted that platinum gains will be limited by the new metal tariff at 25% if exporting to the US . In 2023, South Africa exported approximately $16.2 billion worth of platinum globally. Of this, about $3.42 billion went to the US. That works out to roughly 21% of South Africa’s total platinum exports being destined for the U.S.
I asked my friend GPT to put it in a table and got this helpful result:
So to summarize:
As of today (18 Aug 2025), markets still lean toward a Fed rate cut in September, with odds around the mid-80s, which has taken some heat out of the dollar and kept real Treasury yields anchored near ~1.9%—a mix that’s usually rand-friendly.
Locally, SARB’s July move left the repo at 7.00% while June CPI printed 3.0%, so South Africa still offers positive real carry. Firm gold prices and subdued equity volatility also help sentiment. The main offset is trade policy risk, with the new 30% US tariff on many South African imports clouding the export outlook and current account. Net-net, if US data stay calm into Jackson Hole, the bias tilts to a softer USD against ZAR.
EURUSD 4H Golden Cross kickstarting the next bullish phase.The EURUSD pair just formed its first 4H Golden Cross since May 29. Similar to that formation, this is taking place as the new Bullish Leg of the 4-month Channel Up has already started, following a bottom rebound near its 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
In similar fashion as that sequence, we expect it to reach at least the 1.1 Fibonacci extension on the short-term, which sits at 1.18750. If you're looking for an even higher extension, a +5.11% rise at 1.19700 is possible (also based on he previous Bullish Leg).
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EURUSD | Testing Support Levels Under Geopolitical PressureEURUSD Overview
The geopolitical backdrop continues to weigh on EURUSD, keeping traders cautious.
Technical Outlook:
The pair maintains a bearish bias while below 1.1684, with downside targets at 1.1627 and 1.1557.
However, a break above the pivot zone around 1.1780 would shift momentum bullish, opening the way toward 1.1882.
Pivot: 1.1684
Support: 1.1627, 1.1556, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1751, 1.1882
EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D18 | Y25📊 EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W34 | D18 | Y25
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FX:EURUSD