EURUSD Monday 27 to Friday 31 October 2025.Macro map for 27 to 31 Oct 2025
Concentration of policy and inflation prints means policy expectations and real yields will drive the United States dollar, global equities, bitcoin, and gold. The hinge events are Wednesday FOMC, Thursday US GDP advance and German data, Friday US Core PCE and Chicago PMI. Secondary drivers are BoJ policy guidance and ECB tone, plus BoC.
Watch list
Real ten year yield and the DXY dollar index after FOMC and PCE
EUR front end versus USD front end after ECB and FOMC
VIX around the FOMC window and into PCE
US liquidity windows around 14:00 Eastern on Wednesday and 08:30 Eastern on Thursday and Friday
EURUSD outlook for next week
Set up
EURUSD faces a rare three way cross current. The Federal Reserve delivers statement and press conference on Wednesday. The European Central Bank speaks on Thursday alongside German GDP and CPI. US growth and inflation updates arrive Thursday and Friday. The pair will key off two spreads. First, the real rate spread between United States and euro area. Second, the expected policy path into the December and January meetings.
Baseline view
The dollar leg is most sensitive to any hint that policy patience is the base case while inflation continues to glide toward target. If the statement and press conference lean patient and Core PCE cools on Friday, front end yields should soften and the dollar should slip. The euro leg depends on whether the ECB signals concern about growth. A balanced message with no rush to cut supports the euro. A growth heavy and overtly dovish tone weighs on it.
Scenarios and probabilities
Upside continuation toward the big round figure above. Probability forty. Triggers are a patient FOMC, softer US Core PCE, and ECB rhetoric that avoids a clear dovish pivot. German CPI in line or firmer would add confirmation.
Downside reaction into prior weekly support. Probability thirty five. Triggers are a firmer Core PCE, hawkish FOMC color on the balance of risks, or ECB emphasis on weak activity with openness to earlier easing.
Range behavior inside last week’s value with false breaks around event time. Probability twenty five. Triggers are mixed signals or offsetting messages across the two central banks.
Key levels and timing
Round numbers around one point zero eight, one point zero nine, and one point one zero matter. Prior week high and low define acceptance. Expect the largest one hour ranges near 14:00 Eastern on Wednesday and 08:30 Eastern on Friday. Cross asset confirms are a drop in real yields for the bullish case and a jump in the DXY for the bearish case.
Risk notes
BoJ guidance can move United States yields through global duration. A surprise from BoC can spill into USD crosses before the FOMC window. Liquidity is thin in the first minutes after statements. Fade the first spike only with a clearly defined risk budget and a close beyond level.
