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Jeromepowell

Why the CPI Report Matters and Could be a Bullish Catalyst As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a lower CPI report is more likely in the near-term than a tick up in inflation, with a possible higher than 50bp increase and a decline in equites, it could go either way. Later, when the lagging effects of QT are felt, I expect a further decline in the market as discussed in my previous thesis. It is also possible that inflation stays near its current 7.7%, in which case there may not be too large of a response in equity markets tomorrow. The bigger the move in CPI, the bigger the move in equites. VIX is inching up in anticipation of this binary event. I am linking this thesis with "long" because I believe the negative CPI trend will continue and result in a near-term rally, but this is only because I feel there is a higher probability of this occurring, not that it is by any means certain. InTheMoney
AMEX:SPYLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
8
Powell in the hot seatThis week we see what the fed is truly made of. Given continued hawkishness from the Fed in their minutes, by the end of Wednesday I believe we could be hovering just above the pre-covid highs in wait of the inflation report Thursday. If inflation is shown not to be slowing down I believe the follow through on this move down could be jaw dropping. In that case, limit down Sunday night is well within reasonable to test the Fed's resolve with regard to their tough talk. I'm not holding any position over night as the Fed could capitulate at any time if things start unraveling.
AMEX:SPYShort
by jforet6112
$SOLANA - Back in Bullish TerritoryHello my Fellow TraderZ, So here we have $SOL today which is trying to hold up here after breaking the Trendline. Few more candles above the Resistance will clear the line for LONG Signal. Also see the Inverse Head & Shoulder Pattern, which is still validate and post- breakout the price is retesting the neckline. All eyes on Powell Feedback about #CRYPTO's future now till then waiting before any further trade. Happy Trading Fam. Cheers!!!
Long
by TRADER-GOKU
USDCAD:Dollar too strong!USDCAD Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.3410 (stop at 1.3350) Previous support located at 1.3500. Previous resistance located at 1.3530. Further upside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.3530 and 1.3550 Resistance: 1.3530 / 1.3550 / 1.3600 Support: 1.3500 / 1.3450 / 1.3410 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by Vantage
BITCOIN -10% DROP?$BTC dropped 8% last following Jerome Powell's hawkish messages at Jackson hole, stock market lost billions of dollars after the 8 minutes speech. Inflation is getting out of control if central banks don't move aggressively and Powell know that, this is why he sounded so hawkish : “We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%,” he said. For more clarity one should wait for the next fed meeting in 21 September, 50bps hike is expected at least. Technically, $BTC broke below the bear flag support and a new bearish impulse to the down side is expected next week as DXY soars while stock market continue going lower. Take a look at DXY: Take a look at $SPY: Take a look at US100:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by dogofwallstreets
NYT: Fighting the Fed?!New York Times Co Short Term - We look to Buy at 29.68 (stop at 27.17) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Trend line support is located at 29.60. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 35.79 and 39.00 Resistance: 35.90 / 47.50 / 56.00 Support: 29.30 / 22.00 / 16.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:NYTLong
by Vantage
Another Dip in the Market. What's the Silver Lining for Crypto?With inflation's end nowhere near in sight, the Federal Reserve this week announced more "tough times" ahead - indicating that they're likely to do more interest hikes for the rest of 2022. Inflation rates in the US right now sits around %8-10 - but since CPI reports exclude food and energy prices by design, the "real" inflation rate is likely a lot higher. Most people see the prices of food and gas rising in their own lives and are probably feeling more than what the "official" numbers say, at least. A lot have been said about what this means for the economy as a whole, but if you're a crypto investor the things to recognize are: - This is the first time in history that the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates during a recession - normally you lower rates as the economy dips to give it a boost, but the Feds have no room to do that since the rate was already at 0 for most of the last decade. The problem is much more severe than it is typically reported, especially in the wake of the COVID lockdown procedures that we have yet to experience the full effects of, yet. Some are predicting a market correction as high as 50-60% in stocks, 30-40% in real-estate. We don't know if it's going to go that high but there's no reason to think that it's going to improve, at this point. ("Brace for impact", as many have been warning for a while - it's finally coming.) - Increases in interest rates generally means borrowing is more expensive, which is likely going to slow down startup investments in the Web3 space, too. Crypto projects, VC/VC firms, and "thought leaders" in the space as we know now are likely to disappear in the next few years as access to cheap money dries out. - Crypto projects that have been heavily reliant on marketing to keep their prices up will likely tank with the fiat markets, because of its increased overlap with the mainstream economy. Even Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, etc. may be in trouble since their notoriety may turn sour when the fiat markets tumbles further. (Being well-known is not an asset in this case, in other words.) - Currently the most popular crypto coins have no means of reacting to inflation rates (except for Ethereum, which will begin its staking services after the "merge" in September, in theory), so they may struggle to justify convincing people to HODL while the banks start to offer higher interest rates for savings accounts overall. Staking coins like Tezos , Algorand (ALGO), Cosmos(ATOM), are in better position to take advantage of these trends since they are, at least for now, outperforming the banks by a very large margin. - When the economy as a whole starts to get unstable the common wisdom is that money will flow into the USD. We don't know if that will happen this time - especially with the USD's credit rating outlooks having deemed "negative" by international agencies since 2013. We know that generally speaking, interest in crypto assets tends to increase in countries where its fiat currencies are less stable - but that often requires a breaking point in which the population loses faith in the banking system as a whole. Are we at that point, yet? - For crypto prices to stay stable, all it needs is about 1% of existing fiat money to maintain its current price. (The general economy is about a 100x bigger than the crypto economy as a whole right now.) But it's allocation, per coin, is not likely to stay even. Crypto will bottom out with the fiat economies, but only a select few coins are likely to make a comeback during the recovery process. Many crypto investors are banking (literally) on the general public losing faith in the fiat system as the market dips further, which will make crypto investments look more appealing. The most obvious "utility" for crypto right now is staking rewards - which are objectively outperforming the banks right now, but the bear market will also be a period for altcoins working on providing real value to its users to come out ahead. It's going to be a wild ride either way - good luck, folks. 🤞
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
16
GBP/USD jumps on weak US housing dataThe British pound has jumped 0.82% today, as the currency has rebounded somewhat from its worst week of the year. GBP/USD plunged 2.53% last week, as the US dollar has found its mojo after weeks of beating a retreat. GBP/USD has climbed today after US New Home Sales dropped to 511 thousand in July, down from 585 thousand in August and well below expectations. UK manufacturing slides The UK Manufacturing PMI crashed into contraction territory in August. The index fell to 46.0, down from 52.1 in July and shy of the estimate of 51.1. The dismal reading is part of a pan-European downward trend in manufacturing, which has been made worse by the prolonged war in Ukraine. Output has been hampered by higher costs, a drop in demand and supply chain problems. CBI Manufacturing Output fell by 7% in the three months to August, according to the CBI, down from +6% in the three months to July. This was the first decline in output since February 2021. Manufacturers are also affected by rising energy bills and higher interest rates, and the situation is only expected to get worse. The energy cap will rise in October and the BoE will have to continue raising rates in order to defeat inflation. There was better news from Services PMI, which was almost unchanged at 52.5, pointing to weak expansion (52.6 prior). Still, it's hard to see how the UK can avoid a recession with weak growth and spiralling inflation. Business optimism is dropping, and that will likely lead to a cutback in spending, hiring and investment, which won't help the economy one bit. There is plenty of anticipation ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, but investors shouldn't overlook some key events prior to Powell's speech. Durable goods orders will be published on Wednesday, with the headline reading expected to slow to 0.6% in July, down sharply from 2.0% in June. Thursday brings US GDP for Q2, which is expected to come in at -0.8% QoQ, after a 0.9% reading in the first quarter. With the Fed stating that US data will be critical in determining its rate policy, the dollar could show some movement after these releases, just as it fell sharply today after the soft New Home Sales reading. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1924 and 1.2005 There is support at 1.1699 and 1.1568
by OANDA
1
SPX Bull trap?It is time to pause, I will look into and analyze history'because as they say "history does not repeat itself but it rhymes" I would like to present the comparison of the SPX with the fall suffered in 2007. If we take as a reference the fall of the Great Recession of 2007, it was a fall of 57% during 518 days that means 17 continuous months of fall, the situation was terrible. Extrapolating it to 2022, taking into account that the fall lasted that long and the fall was -57%, it replicates so far the trend and movements of 2007. Are we facing a BULL TRAP or should we rather BUY THE DIP? Today 20/08/2022 Best regards, good investment.
SP:SPX
by wallstreetstocks
Mission AccomplishedI miss the days when presidents would visit an aircraft carrier and declare their mission has been accomplished. I guess you can say Jerome Powell has accomplished his mission by returning the S&P to its 10 year trend channel when he turned hawkish back in January. See my Bear Case for January Analysis I posted below. This chart is an update for one of my 2021 charts on the same that clearly shows the effect QE on VS QE off. So where do we go from here? Sauds gave Biden a big sike to hiking oil production. Increasing tensions with China over Taiwan. The days when all we had to worry about was Oil, now its Oil and Sand. Its going to be a cold winter. Wait until next spring when there is a global fertilizer crisis. FED is going to need to continue to hike. Jobs are going to increasingly get scarce. House prices will start turning over at increasingly greater rate. people with 2 yr fixed is starting to roll over now, 3 yr next. Sorry Cancel Culture. Your future has been Cancelled.
SP:SPX
by SPYvsGME
1
USTECH100 Nasdaq : The bigger picture disaster of tech :( 22.4 Simplicity is king. 1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down. 2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside. 3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend. 4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800 5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow. 6) A break above 14,600 with a weekly close will be the end of the down-trend technically. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my idea, would be great if you could like and follow :D My target is to benefit as many traders as I can with practical knowledge which would give you confidence. Let me know if you have any questions or if there's anything more I can do to help! Thank you <3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFDShort
by Exactus
2
XAUUSD Gold : Launch to space? Or 1890 retest? 22.4 Jerome Powell, chairman of the FED yesterday basically confirmed a May rate hike. But ask yourself seriously - Is inflation going to go away due to this? Will this save a bleeding economy? Gold practically called the bluff on FED's comments AND the rising bond yields. As you can see, post FED meeting we have the Gold keep the support trend-line since the start of the year. Since breaking above the consolidation breakout , circled on the chart, Gold spiked up by about $70 , it is normal for a technical correction down to take place at such scenario, as we see with the price action now. If the week closes above 1935-37 , which is the support trend-line since Jan 2022, the bull trend is kept and a new high will be in sight. **A weekly close today below 1937-35 will confirm potential downside 1890 - Although this scenario is less likely, it is still technically possible. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow :D I'll be posting daily Gold, WTI, BTC, Nasdaq, EURUSD and more with a special focus on WTI and Gold. Thank you for the time to read and I'm always happy to hear suggestions about what you guys want to see more of and any questions of course :D -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
1
Cup and handle forming on GLD! Time again to keep an eye on the price of GLD! There are many factors that come into play with the price of gold. Our outlook remains bullish here technically and fundamentally. With the Fed having printed TRILLIONS over the last couple of years due to the pandemic they have drastically increased the supply of the dollar. This act has of course contributed to the inflation numbers we have been seeing over the last couple of months. With the value of the dollar decreasing, we've seen drastic increases of value in multiple commodities such as lumber, nickel, copper, oil, natural gas...etc. As we see the dollar decrease further an inflation to continue higher it is only a matter of time before real money (Gold) starts to become the center of attention. The headwinds against this in the short term is the Fed's decision to taper the purchase of bond assets so they can increase interest rates to "fight" inflation. The only problem with this is that we don't believe the Federal Reserve will really commit to fighting inflation via rising rates. Consensus for 2022 rate hikes at the moment is sitting around 4. This would likely put rates at around 1% by the end of 2022. If we include 2023 projections, we'll be looking at rates around 2% in 2 years (maybe 3% with more aggressive estimates). This flat out won't be enough to fight the inflation numbers that we're seeing. Now if the Fed DOES decide to actively fight inflation and increase rates to upwards of 7% to fight this inflation, they will stunt economic growth and send markets spiraling downwards. We simply don't see the current regime at the Fed willing to do this. The only choice we have is to live with the current inflation for years and years to come.
AMEX:GLDLong
by ThirtyninethParallelInvestment
ETHEREUM AT CRUCIAL LEVELWelcome back, ETH has converged into a crucial zone between the 60 Day (white) and 500 Day (orange) Simple Moving Averages. We have not seen a close below the 500 MA since April 21, 2020, and this may represent a reversal area for the downtrend beginning back in November of 2021. We tested this metric with a false break wick just days ago on 03/07/2022, and we are currently retesting support. If support fails, we may see some incredible buying opportunities. The white lines represent high volume nodes where support may be found. IF support fails, you will want to have the levels at the bottom of the page written down. $1700 is a notable low if we go into a bad recession, however that seems quite unlikely. Although we are certainly experiencing uncertain times amongst war, supply bottlenecks, inflation, and interest rate hike scares, there may still be hope. NATO is largely united against Putin's delusional desires to reform the former Soviet Union, likely because if Russia finds success in Ukraine, the surrounding former soviet countries may be soon to follow. The Russian economy is suffocating, and the longer the war effort is maintained, the more devastating it will be for Russia. One may worry about China's position, however the CCP is 'China first' before anything else. With economic growth slowing and monetary policy still accommodating, there may be bigger problems at hand if China's growth continues to dwindle. When he speaks on March 16, Jerome Powell may not want to be the one who possibly forces a global recession with the world economy is in its current fragile state, and the war forces the FED to proceed with extreme caution. With markets previously attempting to price in a 50 point base rate hike with extreme volatility, anything over a 25 point rate hike will likely be received very negatively by the markets. This would be great for the bears. For the bulls however, a clean upwards break of this 60MA-500MA zone will likely signal the next bull market is in. The 180 day (blue) MA may act as resistance on the way up, and will also be an important level to transcend. Summary You will need to follow the news on the war, we are in extremely headline sensitive times. On March 16, Jerome Powell will hopefully clarify the FED's plan to tackle inflation. Ideally for the Bulls, he will provide clarity, and much needed confidence which the markets have desperately lacked since the end of 2021 (the period when the FED's original plan 'transitory' estimated inflation would revert back towards normalcy.) Headline war news may catalyze the markets in either direction. Resistance Levels: $3,235 $4,028 $4,375 $4,868 Support Levels: $2,455 $2,322 $2,133 $1,975 $1,830 $1,700 $1,300 Disclaimer: I am neither licensed nor certified to provide financial advice, and this is posted for entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for any losses or damages, you are responsible for doing your own research and making your own decisions. Good luck and thanks for reading!
by CryptoRichCrypto
USDJPY Attempting a BreakoutThe price action of the USDJPY is currently attempting a breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 115.665. Bullish pressure was bolstered earlier today following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hint at a very likely rate hike by the end of the month . If the breakout is successful, the price action will re-test the previous swing peak at 116.300. If not, a minor pullback to the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci at 115.248 may follow next. The latter is about to converge with the 100-day MA (in blue) and 50-day MA (in green), making it an even stronger support. That is why it is unlikely for a deeper correction to unfold in the near future.
Long
by Trendsharks
How Will Increased Interest Rates in the USD Affect Crypto? Now that the Federal Reserve seems committed to raising interest rates in response to inflation (something that they denied was a problem during 2021) we're going to see a shift in the way money is talked about in the near future. What does this mean for crypto, and the greater economy, overall? - The US growth and assets markets have been driven strongly by the availability of cheap loans since 2008, an era that is now coming to a close because the only way to avoid a hyper-inflationary economy in the USD right now is to raise interest rates. - The historic rate at which the US Treasury printed money -- largely justified through COVID woes -- is extreme and it's TBD whether or not the proposed rates will be enough to offset its after-effects. (Was initially 2%, now proposed to ~3%.) The government is broke and has no other choice. - Higher interest rates are generally bad for "risk-takers" in the market, but good for people who like to save. The idea of the government and financial sectors actively encouraging people to save, however, has been missing from the mainstream narratives for a while. Whether or not the institutions can adapt fast enough to form a holistic plan in the midst of the turmoil is yet to be seen. The condition has been around long enough that this scenario will be new to even "experienced" financial experts out there. - This presents a new economic landscape/opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors looking to capitalize on the change. But in this environment, the "slow growth" approach is likely to be more successful than the marketing-driven hype markets that has dominated the scene for the last 10-15 years. (Yes, even in crypto. ex. SHIB, NFT-hype.) - Generally speaking, countries with higher inflation rates tend to have higher crypto adoption rates as well. Will the same happen to crypto, NFTs, and metaverse -based assets? Time will tell -- but now crypto at least has the title of an "alternative asset" with the potential for high growth, especially since it's not affected by supply chain issues that traditional assets are tied into right now. - Since 2021 there have been a lot of crypto-based projects that have tied itself into the USD markets through traditional legal arrangements and contracts (as opposed to "pure" crypto investments that aren't concerned with what the traditional markets are doing right now) -- this money is more likely to run in parallel to the outcomes that fiat money will face as the interest rates start to ramp up in 2022.
Long
by RyanTanaka
How Will Increased Interest Rates in the USD Affect Crypto? Now that the Federal Reserve seems committed to raising interest rates in response to inflation (something that they denied was a problem during 2021) we're going to see a shift in the way money is talked about in the near future. What does this mean for crypto, and the greater economy, overall? - The US growth and assets markets have been driven strongly by the availability of cheap loans since 2008, an era that is now coming to a close because the only way to avoid a hyper-inflationary economy in the USD right now is to raise interest rates. - The historic rate at which the US Treasury printed money -- largely justified through COVID woes -- is extreme and it's TBD whether or not the proposed rates will be enough to offset its after-effects. (Was initially 2%, now proposed to ~3%.) The government is broke and has no other choice. - Higher interest rates are generally bad for "risk-takers" in the market, but good for people who like to save. The idea of the government and financial sectors actively encouraging people to save, however, has been missing from the mainstream narratives for a while. Whether or not the institutions can adapt fast enough to form a holistic plan in the midst of the turmoil is yet to be seen. The condition has been around long enough that this scenario will be new to even "experienced" financial experts out there. - This presents a new economic landscape/opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors looking to capitalize on the change. But in this environment, the "slow growth" approach is likely to be more successful than the marketing-driven hype markets that has dominated the scene for the last 10-15 years. (Yes, even in crypto. ex. SHIB, NFT-hype.) - Generally speaking, countries with higher inflation rates tend to have higher crypto adoption rates as well. Will the same happen to crypto, NFTs, and metaverse -based assets? Time will tell -- but now crypto at least has the title of an "alternative asset" with the potential for high growth, especially since it's not affected by supply chain issues that traditional assets are tied into right now. - Since 2021 there have been a lot of crypto-based projects that have tied itself into the USD markets through traditional legal arrangements and contracts (as opposed to "pure" crypto investments that aren't concerned with what the traditional markets are doing right now) -- this money is more likely to run in parallel to the outcomes that fiat money will face as the interest rates start to ramp up in 2022.
Long
by RyanTanaka