USDJPY Holds Below 146.33 Ahead of Fed Rate DecisionUSDJPY – Overview
USDJPY remains under bearish pressure ahead of today’s Federal Reserve rate decision, a key event expected to drive significant volatility across USD pairs.
Markets anticipate a 25 bps rate cut, while a surprise 50 bps cut—though less likely—would strengthen the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset and deepen the downside move.
At the same time, attention is on President Trump’s second state visit to the U.K., where early trade deals have already boosted confidence in the British government.
If a U.S.–U.K. trade agreement gains traction, it would reduce global risk and likely diminish safe-haven demand for the yen, which could offer medium-term support for USDJPY despite near-term Fed-driven pressure.
Technical Outlook
📉 Bearish Scenario
As long as price trades below 146.33, bearish momentum remains active.
Downside targets: 145.83 → 145.08 → 144.40.
A dovish Fed or larger-than-expected rate cut would accelerate this move.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A confirmed 4H close above 146.35 would support a bullish correction toward 147.07.
A sustained break above 147.07 would shift bias to a stronger bullish trend, targeting 147.82 → 148.49, with a U.S.–U.K. trade deal acting as an additional upside catalyst.
Key Levels
Pivot: 146.33
Resistance: 147.07 – 147.82 – 148.49
Support: 145.83 – 145.08 – 144.40
Market Context
Fed Decision: A dovish Powell and a deeper rate cut would likely strengthen JPY, keeping USDJPY on the back foot.
Trade Deal Impact: Positive headlines from the U.S.–U.K. visit would reduce safe-haven demand for JPY, creating a bullish counterforce that could limit downside or spark a rebound if technical levels break.
