KC1!7.22.22 Coffee I have to be honest, I almost decided to not post this video because I think the Market's probably going to go a little bit lower from where it is on the chart, but I told you I might take profits because I didn't want a drawdown if I'd been in the market. The problem with my decision making was that I didn't want to give money back. If you always think like this you will never make big money in the market because too much of that thinking keeps you from making good trades that require a little bit more time. It could be an okay strategy on one hand, however if the market might need a little more time and you recognize that, it can make a very big difference on how profitable you are as a Trader. What I should have thought was that I was in the money on this hypothetical trade play over $2,000, and I should have given it more time to give me the measured move area which you will see on the chart, and it might even go lower than that. There's a big difference between look at it with the market did after the fact, and actually making real-time trading decisions. There are many traders who know this, it is not a secret. On your pathway to learning, you will hear people telling you that you should plan your trade and trade your plan. That may be true, but I know for a fact that I make discretionary decisions and that takes time, and a certain amount of screen time. Ironically if you look at the screen too often you can really get into a lot of trouble Trading. It takes practice Introspection to know what's best for you. The major point that I made at the end of the video is that it is not that easy to find the best trading tools for you. Those people don't know what they don't know. Most people take a leap of faith this ain't no what is needed, or where they should go for training. Try to find the trading tools you will use, and then you have to practice with those tools. It takes time.
Kc1
Coffee7. 19. 22 coffee: This is a follow-up. The move off the bottom was about $4,000, I actually work it out after the video. The rest of the video is about the problems with this market as I perceive it. Obviously, the market may make new highs, but I'm concerned that it's running in the sellers it said it might not be easy for this market to make new highs right now. I don't really care I take a trade-in coffee or not, or if other people are even interested in coffee. It is more about judging probability and risk, and in this case, profit potential. This market doesn't make it easy to speculate a large profit and this is because the market is right up against sellers as I perceive it. It's more about the process of thinking using the chart as opposed to blind speculation with unclear feelings. On this market there is roughly a $4,000 profit depending on your entry, and now it's up against potential sellers. I could understand holding a long position thinking that the market will make a new high...I explained why I'm not so comfortable with that conclusion.
✅COFFEE LONG FROM SUPPORT🚀
✅COFFEE is about to retest a key structure level
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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XOM - KC - 29062022Analysis
* Seeing a lot of consolidation patters before
* Obvious S&R lines to refer
* Market just dive after opening
* Assumed that it will make the same consolidation patterns
Plan
* Expiry = 9 days
* Hold = 1 day max
* Strategy = Naked Put
* E = 89.30
* TP = 88.12
* SL = 90.39 (wanted to reduce risk)
Journal
* TP = 87.72 (Changed plan because high volume before market closed)
* P/L = 53
* Trade according to plan = Not quite
COFFEE Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
COFFEE broke a local rising support
Then went down and is now back up
To retest the broken line which became a resistance
And I am expecting a local pullback
Towards the target below
Sell!
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COFFEE Wait For Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
COFFEE is again retesting a key level
And the price action looks somewhat bearish
So IF we see a breakout then I think that
The price will go further down
Towards the target below
Sell!
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Coffee Futures ( KC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType: Bullish Bounce
Resistance: 228.20
Pivot: 217. 40
Support: 213.15
Preferred case: Price is moving nearer to the pivot level. We are expecting the price to potentially bounce off from our pivot level of 217. 40 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level of 228.20 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection .
Alternative scenario: Otherwise, the price might break our pivot structure and head for the 1st support level of 213.15 in line with graphical swing low support.
Fundamentals: No major news.
Coffee Futures ( KC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 227.70
Pivot: 221.75
Support : 219.20
Preferred case: We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 221.75 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 227.70 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 219.20 in line with 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Fundamentals: No major news.
COFFEE Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
COFFEE is trading in a local uptrend
And we saw the pair retest the horizontal key level
From where we are already seeing a bullish reaction
Which will continue I think, with the target
Of retesting the target above
Buy!
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KC1! 1W Long Term Coffee Futurestest
Coffee is one of the world's most important cash commodities . Coffee is the common name for any type of tree in the genus madder family. It is actually a tropical evergreen shrub that has the potential to grow 100 feet tall. The coffee tree grows in tropical regions between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn in areas with abundant rainfall, year-round warm temperatures averaging about 70 degrees Fahrenheit, and no frost. In the U.S., the only areas that produce any significant amount of coffee are Puerto Rico and Hawaii. The coffee plant will produce its first full crop of beans at about five years old and then be productive for about 15 years. The average coffee tree produces enough beans to make about 1 to 1 ½ pounds of roasted coffee per year. It takes approximately 4,000 handpicked green coffee beans to make a pound of coffee . Wine was the first drink made from the coffee tree using the coffee cherries, honey, and water. In the 17th century, the first coffee house, also known as a "penny university" because of the price per cup, opened in London. The London Stock Exchange grew from one of these first coffee houses.
Coffee is generally classified into two types of beans: arabica and robusta. The most widely produced coffee is arabica, which makes up about 70 percent of total production. It grows mostly at high altitudes of 600 to 2,000 meters, with Brazil and Colombia being the largest producers. Arabic coffee is traded at the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. The stronger of the two types is robusta. It is grown at lower altitudes with the largest producers being Indonesia, West Africa, Brazil, and Vietnam. Robusta coffee is traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Ninety percent of the world coffee trade is in green (unroasted) coffee beans. Seasonal factors have a significant influence on the price of coffee . There is no extreme peak in world production at any one time of the year, although coffee consumption declines by 12 percent or more below the year's average in the warm summer months. Therefore, coffee imports and roasts both tend to decline in spring and summer and pick up again in fall and winter.
Very low prices for coffee can create serious long-term problems for coffee producers. When prices fall below the costs of production, there is little economic incentive to produce coffee , and coffee trees may be neglected or completely abandoned. When prices are low, producers cannot afford to hire the labor needed to maintain the trees and pick the crop at harvest. The result is that trees yield less due to reduced use of fertilizer and fewer employed coffee workers. One effect is a decline in the quality of the coffee that is produced. Higher quality Arabica coffee is often produced at higher altitudes, which entails higher costs. It is this coffee that is often abandoned. Although the pressure on producers can be severe, the market eventually comes back into balance as supply declines in response to low prices.
Coffee prices are subject to upward spikes in June, July, and August due to possible freeze scares in Brazil during the winter months in the Southern Hemisphere. The Brazilian coffee crop is harvested starting in May and extending for several weeks into what are the winter months in Brazil. A major freeze in Brazil occurs roughly every five years on average.
Coffee futures and options are traded at the ICE Futures U.S. and ICE Futures Europe exchanges, and the B3 Exchange (formerly BM&F/BOVESPA). Coffee futures are traded on the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE).
Prices - ICE Arabica coffee futures prices (Barchart.com symbol KC) were under pressure in Q1-2019 and fell to a 15-1/4 year low of 86.35 cents per pound in April 2019. Robust supplies undercut arabica coffee prices as data from the International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) showed that global 2018 arabica coffee exports climbed +4.3% yr/yr to 78.63 million bags. Also, ICO forecasted a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of +4.96 million bags, increasing from a +2. 05 million bag surplus in 2017/18. Conab, the Brazilian government's forecasting agency, said it expected Brazil's 2019 coffee crop would climb to 50.9 million bags, the highest ever seen for a lower-yielding half of a two-year cycle. Weakness in the Brazilian real throughout 2019 further encouraged export selling by Brazil's coffee producers as the real slid to new record lows against the dollar. Brazil coffee researcher Cepea projected Brazil 2018/19 coffee exports would jump to a record 40 million bags on persistent weakness in the Brazilian real. Coffee prices recovered into Q3-2019 as adverse weather in Brazil curbed coffee yields. In September 2019, Conab cut its Brazil 2019 coffee crop forecast to 49 million bags from a prior forecast of 50.9 million bags. Coffee prices then rallied into year-end after ICO in November 2019 projected a global 2019/20 coffee deficit of -502,000 bags, compared with a downwardly revised surplus of +3.7 million bags for 2018/19. Supplies tightened after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell from a 5-1/2 yr high of 2.502 million bags in March to a 1-1/2 year low of 2.022 million bags in December. Prices finished 2019 up +27.3% yr/yr at 129.70 cents per pound.
Supply - World coffee production in the 2019/20 marketing year (July-June) is expected to fall -3.1% yr/yr to 169.130 million bags (1 bag equals 60 kilograms or 132.3 pounds) after rising by +10.0% yr/yr to a new record high of 174.500 million bags in 2018/19. Coffee ending stocks in the 2019/20 marketing year are expected to fall -7.7% yr/yr to 33.545 million bags after the +17.1% surge seen in 2018/19 to 36.348 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer by far, followed by Vietnam.
Demand - U.S. coffee consumption in 2019 rose +7.3% yr/yr to 29.211 million bags, a new record high.
Trade - World coffee exports in 2019/20 are forecasted to fall -0.8% yr/yr to 136.777 million bags, down from last year's record high of 137.924. The world's largest exporters of coffee in 2018/19 were Brazil with 25.6% of world exports, Vietnam with 20.4%, and Columbia with 9.6%. U.S. coffee imports in 2019 rose +7.3% yr/yr to 29.211 million bags, a new record high. The key countries from which the U.S. imported coffee in 2019 were Brazil with 27.3% of U.S. imports, Columbia with 20.4%, Guatemala with 4.8%, and Mexico with 4.5%.
KCi! LBS1!12.2.21 Coffee Lumber : framing coffee: Looking at Lumber moving to the 382. ( timed-out on the video...but you should get the gist of what I was saying ).
Coffee Re-accumulation! Hello my beauties.
The chart of coffee suggests a violent bullish breakout of a multi-year downward trendline. The price will probably continue its uptrend, but it is now signalling the beginning of a phase of re-accumulation; the price has reacted strongly with a sudden move to the downside that has stunned the price sideways. I will wait for further development to make sure the schematics play out as expected. I will wait for the price to breach the range in red to the downside, only to quickly recover within the range itself; the successful retest of the bottom of the range would be my buy signal before the uptrend continuation.
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Luca, TrickleDownFX
KC1! COFFEE FUTURES:FIBO PULLBACK WITH FUNDAMENTAL NEWS...Coffee prices on Thursday extended this week's rally. Coffee has moved higher this week despite concerns about coffee crops in Brazil. Weather has predicted above-average temperatures in the coming month for Brazil's coffee-growing regions, which could further stress Brazil's coffee plantations. Recent frost events in Brazil have damaged coffee trees. Surveys conducted by the government found that last month's frost events reached 194 municipalities and more than 80% were affected in some way. Control authorities said on August 3 he said sharp swings in temperatures over the past 30 days in Brazil have triggered severe defoliation of trees in coffee growing areas.
Nevertheless we can see how the chart is in a Situation of Pullback, with Volumes and Stochastic Indicator coming out of the Oversold area with divergence. The price has harmoniously rebounded on Fibonacci levels and our opinion sees the price of coffee rise also due to the possible decrease in stocks.
Do you think the cost of coffee will grow?
COFFEE:UPTREND|NEW BULLISH FIBO IMPULSE| LONG SETUP 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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Caffeine Rush! | Coffee Futures - Short Idea for JO Taking a page from Lumber futures back in May, coffee is the latest commodity to party like it's tech circa '99. I don't trade the "softs," but I did find a coffee ETN symbol: JO and may look to fade the caffeine rush when the extreme sell condition cools off. Hot coffee! DOn't get burned. :)
COFFEE Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
COFFEE broke the key weekly level
And then broke out of the bullish triangle
Continuing its bullish rally further up
Looking at the chart, the next strong level is around 176$
Which means that coffee can grow by about 8.5% more from the current levels
Until we see a meaningful pullback
However, the pullback will be short lived
As the current price surge in coffee is due to the drought in Brazil
Which led to the corp failure of up to 100% in some areas
Thus, the 176 level is not the limit!
Buy!
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Coffee Future is getting closer to pick a direction...KC=F has been in a vicious bear market just like many agricultural commodities. There is a down trend line since May, 2011. It is getting close to the apex of the symmetrical triangle as well. If it breaks up, it will be pretty bullish and it may be the start of new bull market in Coffee.