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Kiwidollar

NZD/USD TESTING THE BROKEN CHANNEL SUPPORT AS THE NEW RESISTANCEFX:NZDUSD The rate is currently testing the former broken falling channel support as the new resistance. I am looking for a strong rejection lower to enter new short position on the larger head and shoulders pattern trade idea . I would like to see a bit deeper retracement higher for the rate to test the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern around 0.6960 or even the former broken rising channel support as the new resistance around 0.7050, however, as mentioned before - a bounce lower from the former channel support could work as an entry for a smaller short position.
Short
by TradeItSimple
NSD/USD - Fib Confluence Bounce / Trend Continuation - 20/09/16Even though the FED announcement is coming up in a day, we should get enough time to play on the Kiwi. We have a few nice Fib Clusters which should provide support for a trend continuation move on the 1hr chart. I'll move my time-frame down to the 15min mark to see trend reversal signals and a positive break of the 10 EMA. Will look to close before Wednesday morning (any rate hike jitters!). Will wait to see if there is any movement off each of the zones. Stochastic is shaping up nicely as well for a little bounce. guyvickersinvest.wordpress.com G.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn291061
NZDUSD SHORT: Fundamental and TechnicalNZDUSD touched a 14-month high yesterday at 0.7344. However, I believe it is overpriced, because: Fundamentally: the RBNZ are in a easing cycle, and cut rates at their last meeting. However, RBNZ struggled to devalue the NZD with their rate cut. Thus, I believe they will take a different approach in the coming months to devalue the NZD - perhaps in the way of a 'surprise' cut. Technically: NZDUSD shows strong divergence on a 4H chart. It retreated quickly after touching the 14-month high above 0.734. There is strong resistance in the 0.733-0.734 zone. This is confirmed by the last rejection from this zone in mid-July, where the Kiwi retraced back to 0.70 in the following 2 weeks. Summary: Below 0.735, NZDUSD is set for a move back to the 0.70 handle. A break of 0.735 would expose more upside in the pair. However, any gains above 0.735, for example to 0.75, should be short-lived.
Short
by Exercise-Discipline
AUDUSD LONG: RBA GOV STEVENS SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS"It's a search-for-yield world and this country still looks attractive because other yields look so unattractive," Mr. Stevens said in a joint interview with The Wall Street Journal and the Australian newspaper ahead of his retirement next month. "That's not something that the Reserve Bank can wave a wand and make go away." The below and above support my bullish AUD$ view, the RBA/ Gov Stevens seems to have accepted and become contempt somewhat that AUD appreciation will continue in an era of low global interest rates as ive said before/ earlier. I continue to like AUD$ to 0.78 12m highs, on the back of weak US CPI.. USD currently seeing some bids on the back of Fed Dudleys hawkish comments (attached), but i nonetheless think CPI will be the lasting word on the USD front and will help AUD$ bid up to the 0.78 level. USD strength comes as a function of the fed funds futures which are up at 18% probability of a sept hike vs 9% yesterday, though this should be faded into days end as the CPI weakness takes over RBA Gov Stevens Speech Highlights: RBA Gov. Stevens: World Economy Ready for U.S. Rate Rise RBA Gov. Stevens: Stronger GDP Growth Rates Would Be Welcomed RBA Gov. Stevens: Should Be Possible to Expand Budget, Retain AAA-Rating RBA Gov. Stevens: House Prices Must Still Be Watched Carefully RBA Gov. Stevens: Worrying Knowledge Gap Around China Economy RBA Gov. Stevens: Cash Rate Just One Variable for Australian Dollar Level RBA Gov. Stevens: High Yields in Australia in Infrastructure, Property RBA Gov. Stevens: Hard to Wave Away Demand for Australian Dolla RBA Gov. Stevens: Australian Housing Not in Risky Category RBA Gov. Stevens: Housing Debt Is Significant RBA Gov. Stevens: No Fresh Surge in Housing Leverage RBA Gov. Stevens: Housing Slump Would Not Lead to Systemic Risk RBA Gov. Stevens: Housing Slump Would Not Trigger Bank Failures
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
AUDUSD: RBA MINUTES - NEUTRAL & NO COMMITMENT TO FURTHER ACTIONMinutes were neutral with little hints to further action, much of which inline with the SOMP - if anything it was on the hawkish side given they expect "inflation to be improved by easing" which infers they think policy stable at 1.50% might be sufficient. Though they did go on to say "AUD$ rise could cause complications" though it was kept to a very limited sense (mining industry) and it certainly didnt suggest further easing was on the horizon if it persists. So Aussie from here, with the continued lack of fwd guidance from the RBA i see higher, as posted several days ago - given the 6-9m trend which looks to be yield seeking given the largest economies have slipped into negative rates (ECB, BOJ) and the BOE soon to follow (plus FOMC seem to have adopted a much flatter hike trajectory) thus i expect this bullish sentiment to continue to put topside pressure on aussie (particularly as the RBA have offered little reason for speculators to stay away) as investors continue to seek carry. Trading Strategy: Bullish - Buy Kiwi and Aussie @Market - careful of US Data. 0.773 and 0.779 (0.73 kiwi) look to be the next targets higher - risks to the view are obviously a firming USD through data improvement (given this is the Feds biggest mandate for future hikes), but given the recent data environment this seems unlikely, where i expect CPI today to miss too given retail sales and PPI (CPI Leading indicators) missed heavily last week - this should cause USD STIRs to sell-off again, push rate hopes for sept/ dec back lower and USD weaker + the presidential election i hear is becoming a somewhat constant drag on the USD, even if the rate expectations sell-off subsides. Kiwi has slightly more fwd guidance from the RBNZ with Oct/ November cut on the cards - whilst this may seem encouraging remember kiwi rates trade at 2.0% still vs 1.5% aussie which is a 50bps differential - not to mention that being 200bps+ vs rest of G10.. so kiwi topside is likely expected even though there was some average further monpol suggested as kiwi rates have to come down quite aggressively until they are even at par with aussie, let alone not the no.1 yield currency or closer to the average in G10.. until this point the antipodes will continue to be chased higher imo as investors seek easier yields . RBA Minutes Highlights: -RBA MINUTES: AT AUGUIST MEETING JUDGED PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH, INFLATION WOULD BE IMPROVED BY EASING -RBA MINUTES: BOARD SAW DIMINISHED RISKS FROM HOUSING DEBT, RISING HOME PRICES -RBA MINUTES: ROOM FOR STRONGER ECONOMIC GROWTH GIVEN INFLATION TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME -RBA MINUTES: HOUSE PRICES, AUCTION RATES, MORTGAGE LENDING POINTED TO COOLING MARKET -RBA MINUTES: RISING A$ COULD COMPLICATE TRANSITION FROM MINING BOOM -RBA MINUTES: FORWARD INDICATORS OF JOBS GROWTH POINTED TO STEADY UNEMPLOYMENT IN COMING MONTHS -RBA MINUTES: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT MOMENTUM IN LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION OUTLOOK -RBA MINUTES: GDP GROWTH LIKELY TO BE MORE MODEST IN Q2, AFTER STRONG Q1 -RBA MINUTES: UNEMPLOYMENT EXPECTED TO DIP ONLY SLOWLY TO 5.5 PCT BY 2018, LEAVE SLACK IN MARKET -RBA MINUTES: SUPPLY OF NEW HOMES TO KEEP RENT INFLATION AT LOW LEVELS -RBA MINUTES: PIPELINE OF HOME BUILDING AT VERY HIGH LEVELS, RISK OF OVERSUPPLY IN SOME MARKETS -RBA MINUTES: REASONABLE CHANCE OF FURTHER STIMULUS GLOBALLY IMPACTING ON CURRENCIES -RBA MINUTES: CHINA STIMULUS SUPPORTING GROWTH THERE, BUT UNCERTAINTY OVER LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK Full Minutes - www.rba.gov.au a
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading