BitcoinMacro

BitcoinMacro

Stocks are at elevated levels and I'd say in bubble territory. But in my opinion the true bubble starts now, as no matter what happens now Central banks will try to prop it up. Essentially the biggest risk is in bonds and currencies, not everything else. I do believe there will be a big sell off at some point and I do believe that over the next 6-18 months we will...

BitcoinMacro

1. Most liquidity in the space goes through Bitcoin. Still most alts have BTC pairs, most derivatives volume is on BTC and it is also frequently used as collateral for margin trading. People can easily sell BTC to get USDT to buy alts. 2. In 2019 from the lows, BTC went up and squeezed all alts. Alts bottomed vs BTC when Binance closed US accounts & Bakkt...

BitcoinMacro

GOLD Failed to hold above ATH. Support turned into resistance. Below 50 DMA & Monthly P. More downside possible with 1935-1950 potential top. DXY Kinda the opposite of Gold, but bottomed much later. Right now seems to have reversed and trying to go up. COPPER Diagonal broke, it started trending down, but has now come back above the old highs. Very tricky...

BitcoinMacro

On this 'Market Open' I am going start with in-depth analysis of traditional markets so that we can have a holistic view of the global macro and how could this affect the crypto markets. 1. USD - EM Currencies fell a lot more than I had expected, but also had a much stronger bounce than the rest. The EM currencies I've been bullish are CNH, ZAR & MXN, while I've...

BitcoinMacro

For many reasons I've talked about over the last few weeks, I still believe there is more downside. I believe the bottom will be with SPX 3100-3180 & NDX 9950-10200. Of course I could be dead wrong, and Nasdaq continues much much higher as things are going parabolic. My view is that long term (over the next 1-2 years) NDX will hit 19k, but until then there will...

BitcoinMacro

Welcome to my first ‘Market Structure’ analysis and what this is all about are my thoughts on various topics relating to markets inspired by current market conditions, commentary from other people and so on. This isn’t the first time I write with this style as one of my previous market snapshot had a similar theme. In my opinion this is a more constructive way to...

BitcoinMacro

In this analysis I will go through the various trends, fundamentals and data around Bitcoin and the macro situation. It will have more of a bearish note because I think there are several people should be aware of and play safe. At the moment the USD is in an uptrend and all risk assets have sold off. SPX down 8%, NDX 11%, Gold 10%, Silver 24%, Bitcoin 14%,...

BitcoinMacro

In this ‘Market Open’ there are a lot of thing I’d like to cover, and it is coming out late precisely because of that. Last week there wasn’t one although I’ve shared several ideas on Tradingview which I’d recommend you read. The reason I didn’t share them here is that they were a bit more chaotic and I was actively commending, while now I’d like to present...

BitcoinMacro

Hello everyone! On this analysis I will make a brief summary of my previous analysis for traditional markets and crypto, but this time around I will focus mostly on crypto. I'd also recommend people to read my previous ideas and my recent threads on my twitter profile (@StakeSats) to get an idea of what I've been thinking and been playing with, as I don't want to...

BitcoinMacro

Starting with the USD! In my opinion EM currencies are going to get stronger vs the USD in the next few months. I think that from here USDZAR and USDMXN could drop another 4-5%. That's bullish for the world and most assets. On the other hand people should be careful with their positions as EURUSD is looking extremely weak and USDCNH is about to fill the gap and...

BitcoinMacro

As simple as it gets. The most important support levels and where the price is sitting... I'll leave it all in your imagination as the bottom half are not stocks, but assets that are showing signs of bullishness for the markets in...

BitcoinMacro

This ‘Market Snapshot’ is going to be an interesting one, as it is sharing some of my thoughts inspired by the markets and my trading rather than market action. The first thing I’d like to talk about is the correlation between Bitcoin, Altcoins, Gold, Stocks and the USD, as it is definitely a topic many people are discussing and it’s a heated one. Since the...

BitcoinMacro

On this analysis I'd like to expand a bit on my previous analysis where I spoke about a potential Bitcoin correction. I still do believe that Bitcoin and altcoins could fall significantly from here, but only in the short-medium term... Here are a few reasons why I don't think the stock market bull run is over and that most assets will follow (charts at the bottom...

BitcoinMacro

Hello everyone! This is a special market open analysis, as the markets went a bit crazy over the last few days and today US markets are closed (although futures and other markets are open). In this analysis I’ll go through most traditional markets, explain how I see things right now with a few charts as well and finish up with crypto markets. Let’s start with the...

BitcoinMacro

I will give a brief analysis on all the major assets + charts with my TA -The Euro is getting somewhat overbought, but technically it is really strong. Most people are long USD and most people are bearish on Europe. With US rates falling so much and Europe most likely coming to an agreement about debt, as well as the potential of the Dollar cycle having turned...

BitcoinMacro

Will go through some current FA and TA. Will start with the bear case and then the bull case. Bear Case: 1. Stock markets got really hot with new investors coming in, probably signalling the top. By many measures stocks are now overbought and hit key technical resistance. If stocks bottom near 2650 and the DXY near 99.5, then BTC would probably bottom around...

BitcoinMacro

In this analysis to make the bullish and bearish cases for alts. I'll start with the pros, then move to the cons and finally have a wrap where I put more of my own input. It will contain technical, fundamental and quantitative analysis. My initial thesis before the halving was that we might had seen alts pop a few days before the halving, as Bitcoin wasn't really...

BitcoinMacro

Quick summary of previous idea: 2900-3030 key resistance on the SPX, first rejection looked like it was the real top but there was another strong push higher before it was rejected even more strongly again. USD had 2-3% downside before going higher, but didn't drop enough as support held. USOIL target was 25$, but it has popped even higher. Gold was trapped...