Learntotrade
GBPUSDFollowing the brief sell off the week before, sellers dipped their toes towards 1.2000 and failed
Buyers spent all last week slowly pushing though and break through two levels (marked Resistance Level 1 and 2 on the chart).
Seasonal wise, we have approached a point where the weighted and all-time seasonal trends diverge
Given how oversold GBP is on all the charts, I will continue to look for intraday buy setups (mainly in the crosses) ensuring to trail stop losses tightly
The COT positioning is such that all pairs are gearing for a massive short squeeze. A clean break of Resistance level 3 and expect the flood gates to open. This is also the area where to take the safest buy trade
DXY LongBuyers made a break for it early last week following a period of consolidation
Looking across the major charts, the move up is more to do with EUR weakness rather than dollar strength
Expect a continuation to the upside with the EURUSD and possibly USDCHF charts as the best ways to buy dollar
Should price break the August Swing High then look to target the Monthly R1 Pivot
USDCAD H&S (Right Shoulder)Price tests the support zone and looks like it's going to form a pin bar. If price does remain above support, it would confirm my prediction that price will form a H&S pattern.
On the 1H chart, we can see the H&S more clearly the previous test showed a bullish engulfing candle and on the current test of support we see another candlestick pattern on the support:
The exchange rate on the the daily chart also shows no signs of making a new high:
EURGBP, bears in bound.. So we have a simple:
-break of upward channel
-Market exhaustion
-Momentum change
-Bearish Divergence
Let's see what happens..
Who am I? Identify who you are. (USDCAD short)This entire time I've been trading, I've done my own analysis, I've bagged bare £'s, but if you go to my previous analysis's, bmt I'm talking like some next articulated professional don. I trade from my bedroom not for some bank, my analysis is simple and should be easy to read and understand. It's kinda mad now because I have the mindset of a trader, I tend to have this new trading lingo but more time I'm just talking about a couple of lines and a few patterns and how price relates in a certain environment, I also think of myself as this trader and that's it like there's no more and only live as a trader but tend to forget who I am. I forgot my personality and what type of person I am & tbh I think knowing who you are will help you identify what type of trader you are as well, like they're both linked if ygm.
Coming to the realisation, trading is a skill, that shouldn't take over your whole life. It's a lucrative income that when you know how to do it, calm. Money come long with practice. Make time for other things as WELL!
Just airing my thoughts, have a blessed day my G's!
DOW looking bearishI assume based on Dows failure to rally, perhaps this is a sign that market wants to turn around
At each test of resistance, after dropping more than 500 points, the market has continued to push bearish as well as the Divergence also validating the direction.
GBPUSD - 5 to 1 - win vs risk trade LONGHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
Although GBP is weak at present, I can see some strength tomorrow whilst USDJPY pullsback -
I have entered, however you could place a buy stop at the 1.2138 area
With it cycling higher on the 30m chart - keeping in mind the overall trend is down
If 1.2175 is broken we will certainly be in a short term up trend.
Thanks for looking and the website is live
Duncan
EUR/CAD - Juicy Little DivergenceWe've got a bit of a strange one here today...
EUR/CAD is shaping up for a near textbook bullish divergence pattern AND it's sitting on a long established S/R zone (defined by my S/R algo - see the Related Ideas).
Why is that strange? Well, basically because EUR is so weak at the moment. It's just broken multi-year lows, so unless that's a false breakout (which is a possibility, I guess), EUR should head lower. Generally I like to trade a strong/weak pair, and trading weak/weak pairs can result in some indecisive action (see basically all of 2019 for EUR/CAD).
Anyway, this is a textbook trade for me, so I'll be taking it - BUT, as always I'll be waiting for confirmation. We've already had a perfect touch (a few days ago) of the S/R zone just below current price, so all that's left is to wait for price confirmation. There's lots of things you can look for here, but in a nutshell you just want to see bullish strength.
I'll keep an eye on this one over the coming days and see how it develops.
Profit targets are a bit hard to define because EUR/CAD has been stuck in a sideways movement for months. So I'll be going with the next highest S/R zone at 1.53793 (always remember to leave a pretty wide buffer around these zones). That would be a 700+ pip movement, but would/will likely take months to play out. If that works for you, great. If not, potentially look at riding the zig zag upwards.
All the best!
DD
USDJPY BEARISH IDEAI believe price will either test 108.700 area before continuing bearish as not only momentum decreased approaching weekly resistance but also the retracements became larger suggesting reversal or price will break support. In addition to this, it could be a potential Right shoulder forming on the 108.7 zone which would also suggest bearish moves taking place.
NZDUSD Long 3 to 1 or more - USD WeaknessHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
With USD starting to realise weakness across the board
EURUSD has flow higher
Whilst GBPUSD has continued sideways due to GBP weakness
EURUSD is doing well and continuation entries have supported this driving higher today.
XAUUSD is a winner if you are in it (I'm not due to an overnight retracement taking me out before flying higher today :-( - however that is the way it goes.
With NZDUSD _ I am looking for this to head higher on sentiment news (Unemployment rate and Employment change) and catch up with all the other XXX USD bullish price action
So I hope you're in it
DuncanForex.com is now live
I look forward to seeing you there
GBPUSD BEARISH Contrary to my previous long idea for gbpusd, as the impulse down outweighs any signs of pushes to the upside. I believe it's more likely to see a bearish continuation as price seems to lock into this restricted pennant. This would suggest price is exhausting before continuing.
GBPJPY - Long trade = with two options at dynamic resistanceHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
With EURJPY flying higher this afternoon on it's second leg higher.
ALl JPY pairs want to head higher, however GBP is weighed down by more and more Brexit short term news.
They key is to get in when positive GBP news comes out as it will fly higher to catch up with all the other Yen pairs.
THere is divergence on the 1 hour chart - I have gone long back up to resitance and then drawn two scenerios of what may happen next.
I am expecting it to head higher and break out from the larger descending trend line, however with GBP at the moment, who knows.
I am leaning towards trading other pairs at present - however this trade meets 1 set of my rules (reversal) , so I am in
Thanks for looking
Duncanforex.com is live
Cheers
Duncan
Part 2. The Power of Algorithmic Support and Resistance - AppleWelcome to Part 2 of the series examining algorithmic support and resistance (S/R).
Today we'll check out Apple Inc (AAPL), and how the algorithm defined S/R zones over the last 15 years.
So, as I mentioned in Part 1 (see the Related Ideas link below), the algorithm incorporates a number of factors to determine, in real-time, viable support and resistance zones. I primarily trade currencies, and dabble with some indexes, so I was interested to see how the algo performed in a upward biased equity market (equity markets, unlike currency markets, have an intrinsic upward momentum over the long-term). Spoiler alert: it was almost flawless.
Now, I have to admit that I've cherry picked this example; not every equity/currency/index/bond market will work this well - but it is a good example of how valid the algo is. But, like every tool in a technical analysts arsenal, nothing works every time.
Okay, without further rambling, let's check out some examples. We'll start back in 2006:
So far, so good! There were heaps of great tradeable signals provided by the algo. Remember, as soon as a zone is identified (the vertical background colours), you can trade any subsequent signal - there's no need to wait for confirmation of the zones validity. Let's have a look at the next chart:
The really interesting thing for me is how price gets stuck between Zone 3 and Zone 4. This is a perfect example that highlights how accurately the algo manages to identify zones, and how the market respects them in a consistent manner. Onto the next chart:
Here we can see how, even when a zone is initially breached, it can later provide significant support/resistance. We never know exactly when a market is going to respect a zone - we simply have to wait for market/price confirmation. The next chart:
Again, some really great trading opportunities here. Breakouts and retests of S/R zones are particularly great trades. You will sometimes experience false breakouts, but that's where trade and risk management comes into play. I really love how zones can come back into play years after they're formed. Okay, the last chart:
Now we're up to date! Zone 8 again provided some great opportunities, and Zone 9 has yet to be re-tested by the market.
That's all I wanted to cover for today. Basically just providing further examples of how the algo forms zones, and how the market (fairly) reliably reacts to them. Knowing where the market may react and where price may turn is half the battle. As you can see, you could have made a great deal of money trading these signals (ignoring the fact you could have made a great deal just buying and holding Apple, but that's not what we're looking at today).
Feel free to get in touch if you have any comments or questions!
All the best,
DD
EURUSD - Long 4 to 1 Win vs Risk ratioHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
Following the news this afternoon and the bullish 4 hour candle printed at major lows.
Following the retrace over the past 2 hours - I have now entered on the 61.8% retrace area
I am looking for it to head higher to the next level of resistance which would give a 4 to 1 win ratio.
Trade safe
DuncanForex.com is now live
Thanks for looking at my trade idea.
Duncan
USDCHF RELATED IDEAI believed, due to Point 4 not closing above point 1, that this would be a Truncated 5 Elliot Wave.
With that being said, looking to find a double top to push the market down after the 10am candle close. (Could possibly re-enter)
GBPUSD LONG-Related to my previous idea.
-GBPUSD also made a low, followed by a rise into a higher low.
-Larger retracements approaching a zone, signal a reversal in price.
-Expending a break out, going long.
